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Retail Sales Take an Unexpected One Percent Dive in March

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17 comments on Retail Sales Take an Unexpected One Percent Dive in March

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This morning the Census Department released Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for March.

  • Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $691.7 billion, down 1.0 percent from the previous month, but up 2.9 percent above March 2022. 
  • Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 period were up 5.4 percent  from the same period a year ago. 
  • The January 2023 to February 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.4 percent to down 0.2 percent .
  • Retail trade sales were down 1.2 percent from February 2023, but up 1.5 percent  above last year. 
  • Nonstore retailers were up 12.3 percent from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 13.0 percent from March 2022.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales 

Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Real vs Nominal 

Retail Sales Decline for the 8th Time in Eleven Months

If you think consumer spending has been strong, you’re not paying attention. 

The Econoday consensus was for a decline of 0.4 percent. Sales fell 1.0 percent and real sales fell 1.1 percent.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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17 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
I am looking forward to Lacy Hunt’s first quarter 2023 report.
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Bam_Man
Bam_Man
3 years ago
Commercial Real Estate is a “dead man walking”.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
the last thing amerikans need to do is spend more on junk including autos. i walk. barely shop. and amazon for 90% of my basics. a good thing if you ask me. but i see no plunge or hard landing. yet. jobs plentiful. amerika has way too much retail space and spending for a healthy economy.
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Jack
Jack
3 years ago
The latest update in the top chart clearly now shows a trend down in spending over the last 14 months.
Same as late 1990s and 2005-2008 period.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
I suspect there will be a lot of store closings soon. Many small ones were slammed by covid and are barely hanging on.
I think over the next 5 years, we’re going to see a lot of car dealerships go away. Tesla is showing you can buy directly from them. Ford is starting to sell directly too. Maybe there will be a few left as showrooms and repair facilities.
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Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
If EVs take off, revenue from repairs and maintenance visits to the dealer will drop off as well. Cars have become utensils – they all look and drive alike – no need for showrooms.
Close the dealerships. Direct purchases is the way to go. I have often deferred new car purchases due to the poor user experience at dealerships.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Jack
EVs are clearly the future. Every car manufacturer is investing in EV production over ICE production. The cars are going to cost less to produce and will cost less to own too. And they perform better. China is leading the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of cars sold in China next year are EVs. China is the worlds largest car market.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
“I suspect there will be a lot of store closings soon.”
…
Yes. Much of it driven by when lease ends. Lose less $$s remaining open … but when get a chance … bolt.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Most states have laws that prevent the major manufacturers from selling directly to the consumer. Until those are repealed it can’t happen.
Those dealerships represent a LOT of jobs and money and political influence. So don’t expect any big push to repeal the laws.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Tesla has no dealerships and sells to every state. How do they do it?
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
They are not restricted by the same laws that the big manufacturers are.
Essentially the big manufacturers are prohibited from selling in states where there are franchised dealerships (the idea was to make sure Ford, GM etc didn’t put its own dealerships out of business since those dealerships paid hefty franchise fees).
Tesla is OK because they don’t have any franchised dealerships.
Here is a write up on it in Florida where there are bills in motion to stop Tesla from selling direct.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If new companies arise without dealerships, the dealerships are toast.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
As I mentioned above, there are a LOT of dealerships and they employ a lot of people and have political clout. I imagine a few favors will be called in and new companies won’t be able to sell directly to consumers. See my link above where there are bills in Florida underway to stop Telsa doing that.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
“consumers went back into a freeze in February and March.”
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Tax refunds lagging … no doubt catching many off guard who were planning a spending spree.
Thru April 1st, 2022 …. $204.405 billion … average refund $3,226
Thru March 31st, 2023 …. $183.130 billion … average refund $2,910
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John C
John C
3 years ago
If the money supply has been declining at the rate I see in Grant’s, falling retail sales seem a likely consequence. Wonder what comes next.
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HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Reply to  John C
I can tell you the restaurant business is crashing where I’m at in North Florida.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
In my area, I would guess house millionaires aren’t sure what their property is worth, so no more restaurant hopping.
But easy come easy go, the wealth was created out of thin air by the criminal cabal.
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