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The Moving Average of Continued Unemployment Claims Has Risen 28 Straight Weeks

Continued Unemployment Claims Notes

  • After bottoming on 2022-09-17, the 4-week moving average of continued unemployment claims has increased every week for 28 weeks.
  • In those 28 week, claims have risen from 1.296 million to 1.814 million.

Continued Claims Monthly Averages 

Using monthly averages allows for easier use of recession bars on charts. 

On a monthly basis, continued claims have risen every month for six months. Based on recent data, the monthly average of continued claims is poised for another rise in April. 

Year-over-year continued claims rose in March for the first time in 25 months.

Recession Lead Times 

In a few weeks the numbers on the right side of the above chart will move from 6 to 7. Of course, that presumes we are not in recession already. 

70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

Please note that 70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

For those living paycheck to paycheck, any rise in the unemployment rate is a major, major, event. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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34 Comments
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago

And consider:

“In 2022, about one-quarter of the unemployed (26 percent) who worked in the past 12 months
had applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Of the unemployed who had not applied for benefits, more than one-half
(55 percent) did not apply because they did not believe they were eligible to receive UI
benefits.”
Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Continued claims are not increasing so unemployed still quickly getting reabsorbed into the work force.
No issues unless continued claims start increasing.
Job market still red hot with lots of job hopping / pay jumps / promotions / juicier job titles from what I am seeing.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
ES monthly for fun and entertainment, with a green cloud. 1) There is no close > Jan 2022 low since Apr 2022. 2) There is no close > Dec 2022
high, but Apr isn’t over. 3) The cloud is green, but thin with an inviting flatbed below. Price > the cloud : Very Bullish. 3) T&K bearish crossing : bearish. 4) In May Chikou will enter price : bearish. 5) RSI : bullish. 6) In Jan 2022 price was too high > the cloud and T&K clamps were too wide. ES fast approaching the cloud. 7) A Lazer coming from Aug 2004 and July 2006 lows. Parallel from Dec 2004 high. It was breached. ES crossed it and lost it’s grip. // In order to move up ES must close > Dec high and Jan 2022 low and enter the hot Lazer beam.
The picture is still bullish with few warning signs
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
ES is S&P futures
Matt3
Matt3
3 years ago
I’m still in the stagflation camp. Persistently high inflation, minimal growth and interest rates held below the “real rate” of inflation.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
I’m slowly drifting into that camp.
jiminy
jiminy
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
1970s
Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
Assets prices up and down. Consumables more expensive. Means everyone slowly becomes poorer.
Still lots of money sloshing around.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Jack
They created so much credit money it will probably be sloshing around for several generations.
Unless, of course, we are saved by hyperinflation.
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
Think it is pointless to at all consider continued claims as a recession indicator at this time – the figure is BELOW the historic lows going back to the early 70s. It still has a ways to go just to get to a normal cycle low let alone show recession.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
The calculation has changed over time. And every time it changes, it makes the picture look better. And we had a recession a few months back with lower numbers than now.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
AMZN, META…are laying off. Recession might start when AMZN, META, AAPL …cut cost.
vboring
vboring
3 years ago
The last of the pandemic relief programs are just now winding down.
Will that cause a rise in unemployment rates or change unemployment claims?
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Cont claims : recessions start at 2.5M/3M. If the unemployment rise from 3.5% to 3.8%/4.1% JP might welcome it. The invincible high tech is well beyond peak.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
How do you explain the recession we had last year?
Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Funny you should say that – I was wondering the same thing and whether we were coming out of a recession when the SVB and CRE issues arose last month.
It almost feels like we will be in and out of small recession cycles for a while.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
Another way to look at the historical data is by the time the average number of claims has risen by 50%, the economy was in a recession. This is the first time claims have risen by 50% and the economy was NOT in a recession, so I’m operating as if the economy is in recession.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
We’re not in a recession. Get 1st-time unemployment claims steadily at or above 250K along with continued claims up around 2.5M and we can say we’re in a recession or on the doorstep of one. Labor & services still have a way to go before we reach recessionary like in indicators.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
It’s really bad for entry level tech people. We are getting an absurd number of resumes.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Thanks for sharing that. Can you name the industry?
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Mobile Games
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
You mean entry level tech people in SV or across the board? Everything I’ve heard is tech hiring remains strong in the rest of the country.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
West coast, game industry. Seeing a flood of non gaming people.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Are you implying that the productive industries are shedding tech workers?
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I know a few programmers who had to take a non programming position.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Well that depends on if the new position is in management or the mailroom.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Don’t worry, when they lose everything they’ll no longer be unemployed. They’ll magically become mentally unstable homeless bums. Problem solved. Semantics matter.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
Everyone knows Jesus loves the poor… so they’ll be that much closer to Him, and the rest of us need not be bothered.
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Klaus Schwab wants everyone to own nothing and be happy. Except him and his oligarch friends. You will be closer to Jesus, whether you want to be or not.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Is Klaus Schwab Jesus then? The Second Coming came and I didn’t even notice.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Jesus has been back several times. He always ends up dying in prison.
Siliconguy
Siliconguy
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
If that virus was the first bowl I’m underwhelmed.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
Careful. Your immortal soul is in play here. Remember Pascal’s Wager. Are you willing to have devils stick sharp things into your nether parts for eternity?
Maybe Schwab is the Anti-Christ. It’s really hard these days to figure out who to worship. Maybe Mish knows. He does live in a desert and everyone knows that gives religious inspiration.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I was always told that God loves stupid people and that’s why He made so many of them.
Now I’m coming to understand that He makes so many stupid people because it’s so damn hard to make a good one.

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