Christmas season rates to be dismal according to shipping analysis. And the economy is iffier than most think. Hold off on early sales, or better yet, just say no to a Christmas splurge. 
The Wall Street Journal has some interesting thoughts on holiday sales this year partially based on import and rail traffic.
Please consider Five Economic Signs You’re Smart to Procrastinate on Holiday Shopping This Year
Early signs—from the number of boxes loaded on railway cars to rising consumer debt—signal a weaker holiday season than the past three, when pent-up demand coming out of the worst of the pandemic sparked shoppers’ spending.
“This holiday will be late breaking and heavily deal reliant,” Chris Cocks, the chief executive of toy maker Hasbro, which makes such wish-list staples as My Little Pony, Nerf blasters and Transformers, told analysts recently.
The National Retail Federation expects overall sales increases could be in line with the slower pace we saw in the decade leading up to the pandemic, from 2010 to 2019, when the average annual increase over that period was 3.6%. It expects November-December spending, not including inflation, to rise 3% to 4%. By contrast, sales rose 5.4% in 2022, 12.7% in 2021 and 9.1% in 2020.
Others are even gloomier. Some economic and company forecasts call for almost no growth in holiday spending this year, particularly when inflation is stripped out. The consulting firm Bain expects inflation-adjusted retail sales in November and December for stores and e-commerce to rise 1%, the slowest pace since the financial-crisis holidays of 2008.
Shoppers can look forward to more discounts as Christmas approaches, predicts Jordan Voloshin, CEO of the upscale chain of cookwares stores Sur La Table. “October was very soft,” he said. He expects sales will be concentrated on a few big days of discounting like Black Friday and the Saturday before Christmas.
Many businesses are planning for a ho-hum holiday season by importing less stuff. U.S. imports of TVs and computer monitors, footwear and toys—including games and sports equipment—fell 20% or more in the nine months through September, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau. Bicycle imports are down 41%, and smartphones declined 16%.
Railroad loads look light
Railroad operators said they are receiving fewer loads from ports to haul inland. United Parcel Service and FedEx have also reported lower revenues this year as consumers spend more on travel and services rather than on goods. FedEx executives said in a recent earnings call that they expect domestic parcel volumes this year to be down 25%, lower than what they had previously anticipated.
The decline in imports shows how business is reverting to prepandemic levels after the buying surges in 2021 and 2022.
Five Things
- Railroads and Imports Look Light
- Stockroom Cupboards Are Still Full
- Fewer Holiday Job Openings
- Consumers’ Cash Crunch
- Bargain Hunters Have Time
Christmas is on a Monday giving last minute shoppers a last minute weekend.
Fewer Holiday Job Openings
Point three by the WSJ caught my attention. I created the following chart to verify.
The three holiday related categories are Retail Trade, Professional and Business Services, and Trucking/Shipping
Unfortunately the BLS does not have either trucking or shipping as a category. It does have warehousing but for some reason it combines that with utilities so I ignored that as flawed.
Retail trade openings are now 674,000. That is 81,000 below the pre-pandemic total of 755,000.
Job Openings in Thousands
If you want a job at a restaurant, cleaning hotels, or taking care of the sick and elderly, you are in luck.
Cash Crunch
On November 8, I commented on the cash crunch in Credit Card Delinquencies Surge as Consumer Debt Tops $17 Trillion
“The continued rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad based across area income and region, but particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed.
Bonus Reason #6 Sour Mood
And despite the economy allegedly doing so great, Americans are in a rotten mood.
For discussion, please see Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? Biden Blames the Media
Is that reason number six or will consumers struggling to pay rent and put food on the table go on a big shopping spree? We are about to find out.
To cover for horribvle sales, the XMAS season basically starts before Halloween now and extends past XMas into sales
A tangential story related to retail shopping.
A week or two ago I saw an article somewhere that said Sears was down to 12 stores in the US. That’s 12 total from thousands in the early 2000’s and 700ish as recently as 2018!
One of those 12 is located near me at one of the most upscale malls I know (Louis Vuitton store, Tiffany store, Tesla store – yes Tesla sold in a mall, Jimmy Choo store plus Bloomingdale’s, Saks etc) which is the Palm Beach Gardens mall and I wondered if that’s why they kept that location open.
Today the misses and I stopped into the mall briefly to get some specialty oils and vinegars for cooking and I decided to walk past the Sears store to check it out. It’s a 2 story anchor tenant store. I was shocked when I peeked inside. The lower floor looked like a discount warehouse the whole floor area was basically one big open area covered with washer/dry pairs, fridges, dishwashers and other appliances all strewn about. All with the price tags on them claiming to be big discounts as if they were some end of run product for that manufacturer. The upper floor was also one big open area only this time it was clothes on racks with again signs advertising discounts. I didn’t see a single customer in the store on either floor (again, I could see the entire floor) and on the lower floor I saw like 1 employee and on the upper there was maybe 3-4 bored cashiers. I’ve never seen a big department store entirely devoid of customers and this was at 6 pm on a Saturday when the mall was reasonably busy everywhere else.
What happened to Sears is sad but ultimately I think all the department stores are going this way, it’s just going to take a bit longer for some of the others. But eventually they’ll all be gone and will exist only in online form (if at all).
I recall Mish posting a very similar “Scrooge” thread a year ago.
He was right. Look at the chart is his post. Big YoY drop last year from the year before.
SEEMS like a good thing. amerikans have too much junk and debt. plus we need to tighten our belts to support Genocide Joe’s, full throttled and US NAVY backing the goons in israel. ww3 is gonna mean some sacrifices girls. those C suite twats in MIC and wall street need their wars from ukraine to genocide gaza to syria and iranian strikes………and onward to bomb mexico and china……..who did i leave out of the NIT wits in Repug debate………ONWARD GENOCIDE JOE. our shopping can wait.
Seems like a good year to give gold and silver coins as gifts.
Great idea actually
At Goodwill today Black & Decker 16” electric hedge trimmer in original box, Made in USA, UL approved, $9.99. No Chinesium or 21st century US corporate clowns involved.
If you actually think that B&D product is made in the USA with USA components, you are gullible. I once worked in a USA factory and one of our vendors who sourced parts in China told us of products being made for Stanley that had ‘Made In The USA’ already printed on them in China.
I’m about to run out of dry dog food. I waited long enough for a 20% off sale, and now I’ll buy three big bags. Those should last 5 months
The dog food we use (Science Diet) has gone from $51 in 2020 to $79 for the 35# bag. The pet store had a 25% off sale last week on everything. I also used a $5 mfg. coupon that I printed online. Might want to google your brand and see if coupons are offered.
Yeah the can cat food we buy for the cats is more sauce than meat these days.
It is interesting to watch. All these companies cut their portions do so the would not have to raise price. Watch prices will go up along with corp profits because the portion sizes are here to stay.
kid had a single serving bag of cheese its the other day.
looked empty.
I love all animal lovers out there that then complain about living paycheck to paycheck
In the inflationary 1970s, there were stories of senior citizens eating cat food because they couldn’t afford people food.In the 2020s, cat food is so expensive that seniors have to eat dry dog food.
Was about to make a crack, but ya beat me to it.
I order fresh dog food costs about $11 per day. I’ve got my priorities
Grinch.
I went to get a gift card from a restaurant last night for a friend. I was thinking with a slowing economy and overall lower restaurant traffic that It wouldn’t take very long. I showed up at 6pm and the restaurant and bar are packed to the brim. This is after higher minimum wage in California for restaurant workers. What gives ? I thought people were eating out less and spending less money. That’s not what I saw yesterday and I’m sort of perplexed at the negative economic news.
The past 3 years have been the best economic times ever for people at the top and the good times continue for them. Not everyone is hurting from inflation, just the bottom 70 percent.
Actually, I’ll debate that, and I’m usually first to complain about wealth disparity & household debt caused at the start of Reaganomics.
Demographics, retiring boomers, seems to be doing some reparation to working wages due to a shortage of labor.
For over a year Mish has been predicting a recession with low unemployment, whether or not he’s factored that demography.
For now, repub’s are bitching about immigration, but once campaign donors start directing GOP puppets, they’ll be promoting immigration to get wages down.
Mark my words, within a few years the GOP immigration platform will reverse.
.
What reparations to wages? Real income growth has been negative for the past 24 months.
Higher wages, higher interest rate, less vol ==> econ troubles.
Something has to give. I agree.
Don’t know what will change first, labor market or rates.
Just good eats this year. The rest, meh.
“Bicycle imports are down 41%” Actually was bike shopping this week. In chatting with the store manager we were told to make an offer on anything we found interesting. Bikes are in over-supply industry wide. Special orders would be MSRP, but anything in stock they would welcome clearing. Big change from 2020-2022. That said, I’ve paid less money for cars, albeit a used one.
Talked to a guy that works at an upscale outdoor/outfitting store here in Florida…ski, hiking, fishing, camping, etc. He told me that the store could have kept its doors closed the last 2 weeks…almost zero foot-traffic.
Yeah been holding off on buying a new mt bike.