Biden says the economy is great. The media, even WSJ articles, praise the economy. But polls show Biden is in trouble. What’s going on?
Hoot of the Day
Despite the Media whitewashing every bit of bad news about the president, and numerous reports in unexpected places about how great the economy is, President Biden blames the media for the US’s sour mood.
Biden Blames the Media
USA Today reports President Biden Blames the Media for American’s Negative Views of the Economy.
“We have the highest share of working-age Americans in the workforce in 20 years,” Biden said in remarks from the White House’s Roosevelt Room. “And it’s no accident. It’s Bidenomics.”
Yet polling shows Americans remain concerned about the economy primarily due to stubborn inflation, which although down significantly from a year ago, remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Biden, asked by a reporter why many Americans still don’t feel good about the economy despite progress on jobs, pointed to negative media coverage.
“You all are not the happiest people in the world – what you report,” Biden said. “And I mean it sincerely. You get more legs when you’re reporting something that’s negative. I don’t mean you’re picking me. It’s just the nature of things.“
“I think the 300,000-plus people who got jobs feel better about the economy,” Biden said. “The American people are smart as hell and know what their interests are. I think they know they’re better off financially than they were before. It’s a fact.“
What’s the Media Saying?
- The Economist, April 13: America’s Economic Outperformance is a Marvel to Behold
- CEPR, May 10: Joe Biden Has Given Us the Greatest Economy Ever
- Inquirer, June 20: Spread the News: U.S. Economy is Strong Under Biden
- WSJ, June 29: U.S. Economy Shows Surprising Vigor in First Half of 2023
- Yahoo Finance, July 14: Americans Haven’t Felt this Good About the Economy in Almost Two Years
- WSJ: July 27: Could a Recession Still Be Years Away? Steady Growth, Moderating Inflation Improve Odds of Extended Expansion
- Bloomberg, August 7: The US Economy Is Great. Stop Worrying About It.
- WSJ, September 2: Resilient U.S. Economy Defies Expectations
- The Guardian, September 15: US Economy Going Strong Under Biden – Americans Don’t Believe It
- WSJ October 18: The Economy Is Great. Why Do Americans Blame Biden?
- Bloomberg, October 22: Biden’s Economy Is Great Everywhere Except in the Polls
- Bloomberg, October 26: Yellen Says GDP Data Show US Economy Is ‘Doing Very Well’
- WSJ November 1: The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood?
The Explanation
No one reads the Economist, CEPR, the Inquirer, the Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, or the Guardian.
Everyone get their news from Zerohedge and Mish. I cannot speak for ZH, but I offer an apology. I am clearly to blame for Biden’s poor polling.
Well, maybe not. Maybe Bidenomics is working for everyone who owns a house but not those struggling with rent and struggling to put food on the table.
And what about those who see $7,500 subsidies going to people can afford a new EV when they struggle buying gasoline.
The Unmistakable Message
People do not believe Bidenomics is working. Inflation is moderating, but prices are still going up.
CPI Rises More Than Expected as Rent Jumps Another 0.6 Percent
I repeat the core key theme for something like two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep doubting.
All these “rents are falling” projections have been based on the price of new leases, but existing leases, vastly more important, keep rising.
On October 12, I noted CPI Rises More Than Expected as Rent Jumps Another 0.6 Percent
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped 0.6 percent. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 26 consecutive months!
It is not the wealthy who make up the majority of renters. So rent alone is fueling the pain. Factor in food.
A rising stock market and home prices does not help those with no assets. And the poor have no assets.
Existing Home Sales Drop Another Two Percent to a 13-Year Low
On October 19, I reported Existing Home Sales Drop Another Two Percent to a 13-Year Low
Existing-home sales are at the lowest level since 2010, down 18 of the last 20 months.
Who can afford them among those who don’t own a home but want to? I believe that question is explains this poll result: Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point.
Cramming EVs Down Everyone’s Throat
Renters with no place to charge a car and no means to afford one anyway are rightfully upset at Biden’s energy policies.
Even unions are upset at Biden for cramming EVs down everyone’s throats. The Unions understand that EVs will cost union jobs, and lots of them.
Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Want Hybrids, Not EVs
On October 16, I commented Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Want Hybrids, Not EVs
A better title would have been Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Don’t Want EVs
While the President harps about how great things are, consumers don’t see it that away and I have been covering all the reasons why.
By the way, I just did a doublecheck of a stat I knew. Here it is, from CNBC: 60% of Americans are Still Living Paycheck to Paycheck.
On November 8, I reported Credit Card Delinquencies Surge as Consumer Debt Tops $17 Trillion
Clearly things would be so much better if we stopped this kind of news.
For discussion of the latest polls, please see Five Alarm Bell – Biden Trails Trump in Five of Six Battleground States
Mainstream media struggles to figure out why Biden is doing so poorly, but I have. Clearly this is my fault.
“Clearly, things would be so much better (for me, if only my utterances were published.)”
It’s the government picking and choosing by force. Self righteousness of those in power. Corruption. Censorship. Double standards. Lack of belief in free markets and free people. Special groups. Defining some as non essential. Did I mention double standards and censorship? Hypocrisy. Media. Lack of objectivity. Bias in reporting.
Mish, I see that you had your hands in the Moodys outlook downgrade as well!
Being financially comfortable, owning rentals, in (2) states; rents are NOT going down. If anything, they’re holding steady. I will say, because we’ve had a large influx of apartments come online, I can see those initial units perhaps being below market in order to fill; otherwise they’re not falling over here on the LEFT COAST.
All of this ‘job growth’ and we still don’t have enough folks paying into SS in order to break even with those who are living off of it. Take a look at all of those ‘jobs created’ in this economy, take out all of the government jobs and tell me what a wonderful economy he’s impacted.
And there’s the ‘0’ interest rate environment we’ve had for a decade, who reallllly benefited from that? Retired folks living off of fixed income? How about the savers? Truth be told, our friend Mr. Paulson from GS handed a Golden Goose Egg to Wall Street under the guise of uplifting the economy.
Americans have been bent over and taking it for quite some time, they’re just now noticing and looking back there to see who’s been porking them all this time.
It’s not a ‘bad mood’; it’s more like a SORE SPHINCTER.
Bad mood is caused by our Administrative State in DC and politicians CORRUPTION
Welfare as a business growing our own criminals-
Illegal aliens taking our stuff and our Federal Government encouraging the theft
– (WSJ) Americans are in a rotten mood
We would have to define Americans, specifically, to obtain accurate information, to be then used ufor conversation and then get usable opinions based upon them.
If we were to breakdown the 18-26 category for example, nearly all input regarding housing must not be considered as defining (drop high/low) percentages of desire to, access to, where to, with who etc.
Now toss in 35-45 category for example, and now it must be considered to be added, for the data to have any significant meaning.
Too General of a statement…
The reporting/information released to the public by the MSM, and any Newsprint still available, is delivered this way deliberately, as generalities is all they want used for defining talking points. It’s basically a way of joining everything together through association, and once that is achieved, you can give across the board solutions to fix everything. It is also referred to as indirect manipulation.
To have the masses follow in lock step, (Ex. EV’s, Windmills) you need as many wanting to follow along as possible to get it done. It requires groupthink, and repetition of said groupthink. Done through public schools for decades now, and nearly all colleges as well. Unions are great for this as are many NGO’s but I digress…
The point is, unless you are fed unhindered information, that is then used openly in a public forum, and then discussed openly for varying viewpoints, perspectives and ultimately interpretations that result in open unhindered discussions, then you have nothing at all IMHO…
Hi Mish, can you please comment on the recent 30 year treasury auction that posted a “stunning” 5.3 bps tail and a bid to cover that some are portraying as the harbinger of the death for the USD? Thank you.
I was hoping for a discussion on this as well. The equities market got spooked for a whole day before it was back to rally mode yesterday.
I have been reading Mish’s blog for more than 15 years, but lately, between EVs and politics, there isn’t much actionable financial discussion.
Everything around us…. Is a distraction. The rally inbthev30 year bonds? Yup, expect more. Money is scarce. Despite what is being printed. Productivity of money is also lagging. Year after year and into the fourth decade of productivitym the end may be near… To this awful lag in productivity? Demand destruction will continue until we reach bottom. Will the bottom be reached with out a world war? Unlikely.
COVID was a deliatraction to the faltering bond market. Or US treasuries. The Chinese , the Russians and now the Japanese….. Are not buying the t billa necessary to keep things afloat. The rally in 30 year bonds is just the beginning. We will see interest rates plateau for a bit. Maybe rise again. After war escalates in the middle east…. The “blame” is important in an election year. And not to be directed to Biden. In essence, war is inevitable. And interest rates to go up, further is there fore also inevitable. 7% is around the corner. And soon 10% after this…… And this is what rallies thev30 year bonds.
“Biden, asked by a reporter why many Americans still don’t feel good about the economy despite progress on jobs, pointed to negative media coverage.”
Negative media coverage didn’t cause all the recent union employee strikes. Inflation jumped to 9%. A few weeks ago i drove past Disney Studios. On one side of Buena Vista street, were picketing actors. On the other side, were medical workers picketing, St. Joseph’s hospital.
It’s amazing, blame is everywhere.
Perhaps if we stop looking for excuses and look for real reasons and accept these reasons….. Will we see that the obvious actions we need to do as individuals is apparent.
Inflation was not 9%>
Inflation is lagging. Considering the money supply or M2 had doubled between 2019 and 2023.
100% in three years…… The notion that inflation is only 9% ….. Is proof the distractions are working! So let’s discuss what will happen next…..
Perhaps inflation will not go away…. It will be dragged out over several years, until we all realize what happened? And as soon as that happens. We should anticipate the next step. And that is? Interest rates need to go where it needs to be, such that investment gets a real return. 10% is too low when the M2 doubled in three or four years!
By definition, this is why productivity is in a hole. And people are not willing to invest . Invest in the way we had seen in the last three decades or more…..
correct. all the hooey talk about deflation being a possibility past 3 years was insanity.
Was the Roman Empire collapsing a bad thing? Or that it took too long?
it busted in half. one half failed only. the eastern roman empire lived another thousand years as the byzantines. their byzant was sound currency for i believe around 800 years………….amerikan empire is huge. eastern half could fail and western half could live nice for another few centuries……….who knows. nobody does. but our empire is failing………no doubt.
Only the wealthy would think the economy is doing well, so you can expect Biden’s support to mainly come wealthy California and NYC liberal types. Maybe if he hadn’t ignored that inflation wasn’t transitory in 2021, things would have been better for him. While wages are now outgrowing CPI, it will not be enough by the time elections come to make up for the massive cpi rise in 2021 and 2022.
Then there is the international relations department. I know the adage that usually for the American voter, it’s domestic politics that matter, but I think Biden will lose a good amount of support from certain sections of Dem voters because of his support of Israel. Biden will try to sell the message that Trump is more hawkish, but in reality who basically continued Trump foreign policy in most respects, except that he is pro-nato and anti-russia. I think for the Dems who are against his support of Israel, that small distinction will not matter.
Finally, there is the issue of Ukraine. Counter offensive has failed, and now that the West is arming Israel you can pretty much discount Ukraine being able to reclaim any of its lands from Russia next year. Another failure that will be capitalized by Trump.
Ultimately, after a pretty good 2022, Biden has pretty much screwed himself.
@Obaerver. Why would you believe the wealthy believe the economy is performing well? The wealthy are waiting. Not investing. Only the upper middle class and those with wages above the average salaries may agree the economy is rosy dosie….. If I may say. Many of our clients are wealthy. Wealthy with high incomes as well as the stupid wealthy. And when i ask them, how is the economy? There answer is not the same as what the WSJ or any other media publication. This in effect is part of the illusion?
What may be true? The wealthy or the employed….. Are not hurting. They are however are not rushing into big projects until we reach bottom. To which I believe we are not even close. And the expectation of interest rates spiking much higher than 10% is likely more plausible sooner ….. Thrusting us into harder times before we see better times
absolutely my experience speaking to owner level wealthy……..
Just the market reactions. If the wealthy really believed things are bad or will go bad, they would pull their money out of stocks at least, but what we are seeing is a weak bull at the moment.
I’m sorry Joe, but prices went up across the board almost 25% after your election. The supply chain stuff was an excuse for everything from electronics to corn flakes to go up in price. And corn flakes are not coming from China(yet). All companies rose prices because the Jones were raising prices and they wanted to make up for decreasing sales by increasing revenue and profits. Remember inflation is good. Deflation is BAD(to economists). Its called collusion. It used to be illegal
Every time I go to the grocery store I ask myself “Do I just eat really expensive types of food??!!”. Probably not. I’m sure that most of what I buy costs 1/3rd what it did two years ago. I won’t starve, but neither am I going to buy stuff that I would have otherwise.
25% is what the central bank reported on, for the last three years.
The truth is? Our money supply doubles in the last three years. Or 100% over this period of time!
The inflation is just creeping up. We have a lot more to expect…… Higher inflation and interest rates thrusting upward before we can expect lower rates and growth.
“Maybe Bidenomics is working for everyone who owns a house but not those struggling with rent and struggling to put food on the table.”
Almost. If you buy your own groceries, gas, and electricity/ heating things are rotten. (Example, the 69 cents a lb onions are on sale for $1.42).
but if you are a member of the Protected Class, those items are like 1% of your budget and will not affect your life.
So if you “have people ” to get your groceries and such you really haven’t noticed the problems. On the other hand, I am about to depart to the grocery store where I will certainly notice those prices, and I need gas too.
@silicon guy.
What is interesting to read here and there. The price of groceries. Food in general are going up. Wages are not. So what are your options? What changes do you and I need to do, to make things right?
A) demand higher wages?
B) look for a second job? New job with higher pay?
C) the least considered, cut unnecessary costs. Ie, cell phones, cable, internet, new car payments, clothes, dinning out?
D) grow your own food. If your time is not valuable to an employer, or to society. Growing food is easy. Yet consumes plenty of time….. And well, if so iety doesn’t put value on your time. We as individuals need to make our time more worthy! Growing our own food means we won’t get rich. Though growing our own food means we will be taking care of our selves. We need to remember, we were born on farms…. One or two or three generations. Temptation brough us to cities. Salaries was the carrot in front of the horse to have us all move into the city. Now if the carrots are being taken away….. The shift back to the land must be made.
Update: gas was $4.28 a gallon.
admittedly this is not all Biden’s doing, Jay Inslee and Democrats in Seattle have cranked on a huge gas tax to encourage the adoption of EVs.
Of course they also want to tear out the hydroelectric dams that would provide the power to charge those cars, but logic was always weak on the West Side.
Mish,
You may want to stay in your room and chant USA! USA! But, I don’t think that the path to continued prosperity involves making little (except war), and importing much. We have become fat, dumb and lazy from the benefits of the reserve currency and a decedent culture. Joe Biden is the perfect mascot for this once great nation. China, on the other hand, is working diligently towards a brighter future.
link to zerohedge.com
Communism doesn’t make for much of a future at all, let alone a bright one.
I am not sure why this comment is getting so much thumbs down.
The reality is. America has become very comfortable. Even despite the inflation and the credit crises and despite the struggles….. America is literally and mostly physically FAT.
360 + million people.
The system clearly does not have to be united as once was to bring prosperity….. Prosperity to the elite! That is…..
Obviously it’s the scourge of White supremacy spreading throughout the land that is the problem. These orcs and goblins are threatening our nation and disrupting drag queen story hour throughout our elementary schools. How can a nation hope to survive and thrive when our most gay and twisted citizens are held back by evil Christain white men? Don’t they know that the trans people are the backbone of this nation and make everything run from nuclear safety and purse snatching to team sport! And people wonder why the mood is so sour? Isn’t it obvious?
And the earthquakes under Iceland probably mean that Godzilla is awakening………
That is obviously the fault of Global Warming.
Dr Chris Palmer : stop eating junk food to heal your brain.
We had Mike Johnson drop by Paris yesterday for the Worldwide Freedom Initiative conference. Freedom Initiative
The Media blames the President and the President blames the Media. I think I have seen this before about a couple of thousand times. Biden is too painful to watch and his press conferences, with or without him, are non-events for me. Policy is made elsewhere and it is better to listen to those who make it and not those who read it off a teleprompter.
They say that people’s happiness is determined by whether they are doing better or worse than their peers and neighbors. We all own our homes so rent increases are out. Taxes on real estate went up a couple of years before but haven’t moved much since so that’s ok. Jobs are plentiful for the moment and salaries have increased. Food inflation has abated considerably. The European stock market sucks but it has sucked for several years so it has not changed. Looking at the economic aspect I should say that it’s ok.
Should one be happier than a year or two ago? In the last three years we have seen a pandemic with a lockdown that killed a lot of people and a lot of small businesses. Then we had Russia invading Ukraine bringing a major war to Europe for the first time since WW II and now we have a major war in the Middle East that risks becoming wider outside and within Europe. All European countries are increasing the size of their militaries, especially Germany. If we put all that together I see little reason to feel happy.
Those who own defense company stocks may find reason to be happier. The rest of us, not so much.
Definitely
America use to function incredibly well as United nation. Today, the opposite is true. The function of america ,(,by design) divided makes more money.
So Mish exactly how are you doing little buddy? Did you stop working long enough to enjoy the Friday evening cocktail hour with your family? As successful as your blog has become over the past 20 years or so you’re still having to deal with all these horribly, depressing, dangerous issues we are all having to deal with here in America and the rest of the world. So despite everything that’s going on, personally, are you relatively happy?
I’d say he’s overjoyed at being out of Chicago before all hell breaks out
I lived in Chicago for more years than I wish to remember. I regret asking ” How could it get any worse.” I now have my answer.
Of course Biden blames the media, as blaming anything but not looking in the mirror is standard practice for a Demented Delusional career politician that has been sucking off the government teat for his entire life, and MUST deny all reality to function.
To brain dead incoherent that he cannot read a teleprompter, or a cue card, or make a speech and then know which way to go to get off the stage.
Living inside a bubble collecting a government paycheck, since forever, and NEVER buying his own groceries or gasoline, constantly attended by servants, flying on the mega luxurious Air Force One 747 and riding in the Beast car with all the attention of being in front of the MSM cameras everywhere.
He naturally has no concept of the reality that he got installed to this FABULOUS position by the crime of the century of the STOLEN ELECTION! If someone does not understand THIS SEE the Dsouza movie “2000 Mules” on the monstrous crime of the ballot box stuffing.
Sounds like a pretty accurate evaluation of our dear leader to me
Someone about 15 months ago wrote an article,I now have to find it
In summary, this is what he said
Biden Vice Presidency ending, was going off into the sunset, planned on retiring but the DNC realized Bernie Sanders was going to beat Hillary for nomination and the DNC either does not want and or did not believe America was ready for a Jewish President……….Joe meanwhile was going out in a final blaze of graft and bribery and TREASON with his foreign government dealings……Then he gets the call, Joe we need you one last time……(They needed the face of white man to sell this shit they are doing to America) With a quid pro quo that Joe dont worry we will bury all you are doing.
Its really that simple
And until someone explains to me why at 3:16am on many city streets usa, someone pulls up in car, takes a photo with their camera of some typle of dropbox/mailbox, then unloads a package into said box, then takes another photo for good measure and then drives off…………In a hundred or so cities no less………….Explain that ……….All the while we pause election counting in so many states……..
I am 60 years old and I do not recognize my country anymore. Not for the people that are in it, I dont care what color share of size you are but for our actions domestically and globally…………..And under a so called Democrat presidency
The problem with Bernie is that he is of the Marxist bloc along with the Squad, not that he is nominally Jewish, that bloc is dancing to their own tune and frequently clash with the old guard. The old guard needed someone from their bloc and FJB was dumb enough and corrupt enough to accept and not mess with the grift that has served them for decades.
Full time jobs are being lost to part time. People are having to take additional jobs to keep their head above water.
ya but there are millions of vax injured who can’t work so plenty of job opportunities out there
Taco Bell or Wendy’s hiring?
11,000,000 illegals = reason why
The rich want to be served. That is why illegal immigration will never stop.
Add in the 5 or so million illegal aliens in the guise of Bidenomics, the poor now have more competition for jobs. The poor suffer the most via illegal immigration.
The border security failure of the Federal government is a breech of our Constitutional Contract. Plain and simple.
No doubt the poor and working class suffer the most
constitutional? that’s precious. never change.
I’m in a great mood despite my candidates losing for decades. The people in a bad mood are the ones who keep defeating my candidates. They never snap out of trying to vote for stuff they did not earn and demanding I pay for it. No. I will not pay for it. I will find ways to not pay for it legally but that’s ok if they never figure it out. I’m doing great. Have fun being miserable and ignorant.
I’m doing great thanks. I don’t care much about Bidenomics, Trumponomics, Obamanomics, Bushonomics etc. I just focus on improving my health and wealth. And guess what? It works!
Another good day, and week, in the markets.
Yeah sure You stay in that casino and let us know how it works out for you
Salute to you PapaDave,
These people that are miserable don’t know critical information because they are too lazy to look it up. Reagan was a Democrat. Hillary was a Republican. Trump was a Democrat…meh. The parties do not matter. You can strive under both systems. Have to figure it out on your own. FYI, Biden was going to run as a Republican but the race looked better to defeat the Democrat so that’s what he did. Nothing to do with moral values. All BS.
correct. 100%. the middlebrows are baby seals begging to be clubbed.
Are you suggesting that the uniparty is playing the American people for saps? No matter which party you vote for you get: more wars, more fiscal irresponsibility and shitty governance.
Yes! We the people are so easily distracted…. The illusion is real
Yes. The distractions are thick.
I also wonder if they will ever stop??? I doubt it.
Follow the money….. And the clever ones behind this parade…. Will likely never be discovered?
Mood changes on its own. People only attach their feelings to events in their surroundings because cause/effect thinking is easier to grasp that naturally occurring fractal patterns.
My 30% property tax increase this year isnt helping my mood thats for damn sure. I am past livid on this topic.
Those $300,000 / year pensions for school superintendents in suburban Chicago metro must be paid!
300k per year pension? That’s insane
I know of one such pension. The school district is Bloom Township high school district. It has two schools. The school board gave the outgoing superintendent a ‘boost’ in his last contract to boost his pension. It seems immoral since the district is not directly responsible for the pension payments, but rather the State of Illinois Teachers pension system. Ergo, all Illinois school districts, outside of Chicago, are responsible for that huge pension. Any short falls are required to be made up by the State of Illinois. Yearly the state allocates funds to the pension fund to keep the pensions going. I live in Illinois. I taught in Chicago Public schools for 35 years. This type of shenanigans still burns me up.
You forgot to list your home value from 3 years ago and your home value today. 🙂
His home value is immaterial. A home is somewhere you live and if house prices go up he will pay more to buy another house if he wants to sell his existing house. Plus he will pay more in transaction costs on the sale like agents fees.
Does he get 30% more government services for that extra 30% tax or is that 30% just going to pay for government employee benefits like those $300k pensions?
I wish I was getting one of those $300k pensions, if that news is even true. My pension will be $41k, like most govt. workers. Property taxes are calculated first by using the property value. If your house is worth more, you pay more tax. The increase in your home’s value isnt a fantasy. You have more net worth because of it. So you pay more tax.
did you actually believed you own your r/e ? quaint.
Don’t know about today but I did own a 17 acre prime parcel in SagHarbor NY in the 90s Subdivided it into 17 building lots and sold everything
i know the old whaling town well. i was being smart. the government owns the land always. never really tax free deeds except in rare circumstances in modernity. sold all my properties in 2022………..feels good. different angle but same situtaion as yours……….just out west and deep south……….
This may be a long shot, but do societies like Italy and Japan with fewer and fewer young people also have an “optimism deficit?” Can you be happy when all you see around you is fewer and fewer kids — where dumb energy and naivete originate? Whenever the Japanese skaters came out for the Olympics, it was like the whole country came alive for a little while, with cheering and stuffed animals thrown at them. “See? We arent all food for worms yet!!!”
Perhaps Americans are sick of the their stupid government? Can we have just a few years without a F#@$ing neocon war? How about stopping the endless monetary machaniation? How about stopping the retarded woke shlt. Can we enforce the rule of law and stop the political persecutions? How about the homeless, the fentanyl epidemic, illegal immigration, bad schools, crooked politicians, exported jobs and crappy schools? The country is broke and all the slobbering bozo in the White House can do is diddle himself while watching kiddy porn. FJB!
Gee, I feel much better after letting that off my chest
UPS drivers are making less today (per the “official” CPI-W) than they were 5 years ago. Yet everyone (including themselves!) thinks they got huge raises and they have never been doing better.
Cognitive dissonance arises when they realize they are falling behind despite the “huge raises”.
Social security recipients got a “huge” increase last year, but “somehow” they’re falling behind.
Huge increase? Not compared to the increase in the cost of living that’s for damn sure
Years of weapons grade propaganda has damaged our collective mental health.
If you don’t eat food, don’t pay rent, don’t pay health insurance, don’t have to fight wars in foreign countries, don’t care about border protection… well, everything is just peachy.
When one is older and spent much of their life doing volunteer work and not stacking a lot of investment capital it hurts when rampant inflation on core needs like food, rent, transportation, medical insurance and volatile prices mostly up everywhere make it hard to survive. Saying things are great when wages and income streams have stagnated in the face of high inflation is disingenuous at best and offensive as he//
Five star humor. Kudos to you, Mish.
link to oilystuff.com
link to oilystuff.com
American’s and the rest of the World are soon going to being really bad moods.
USA Shale has peaked (the Permian Basin) and has 80% decline rates.
World minus USA is already in decline.
You need to be on top of this Mish!
This is data from the EIA and Texas Rail Road Comission.
thanks for your work.
Story of Century IMO. Grab it Mish.
I would contact Mike Shellman (50 year oil pro and well connected in Texas) from oilystuff blog.
He thinks it is going to show up in QTR 1 2024!!
Rig counts are dropping in the Permian.
We are fooked!!!
STORY OF THE MILLENIA!!!
What happens after the frackers destroy all of our groundwater? Oh right , that’s what I thought
Not only have they destroyed our ground water.
But they have completely mismanaged a gigantic resource …poking holes in every direction and depresurrizing it.
This will leave all the black gold stranded forever.
Read Mike Shellman at link to oilystuffblog.com
I don’t represent Mr. Shellman and DO NOT LISTEN TO ME.
But listen to Mr. Shellman.
None of these oily links work.
While I am a big investor in oil stocks, I disagree with some of what you say.
US shale output is still rising, thanks to new technologies and techniques. Output in 2023 has risen by 1 mbpd to 13 mbpd. This is a record for US oil production.
Yes, shale decline rates are faster than conventional oil, yet output will rise another 300k bpd in 2024. Even with far fewer rigs working. Which speaks to a new era of efficiency in shale. Which will slow the decline rates.
Second, the world is not in decline. World output (ex US) also grew by 1 mbpd in 2023. Meanwhile OPEC is voluntarily holding back 3 mbpd that can be brought back on the market should prices rise too quickly.
In the long run, I agree that production will peak because companies are focused on profit more than production.
I expect oil to range between $80 and $100 in 2024. Which is high enough for most oil companies to do very well.
Rig counts are dropping.
Please read Mr. Shellman at http://www.oilystuffblog.com
Why did Pioneer sell out to Exxon…because they know the good shit is gone.
You can’t produce more if rig counts are dropping.
QTR 1 2224 is likely an OH SHIT MOMENT.
I appreciate your posts. I also follow Shellman, Garg, and others who have been talking about the eventual decline in shale. While some of what they say is true, I doubt their timelines. There will be no “collapse” in shale oil in Q1 2024, or any other Q in 2024.
And the data says so. Production increased by 1 mbpd to 13 mbpd this year while rig counts declined.
In addition to record oil production, the same is true for nat gas production. Records. With fewer rigs. Better efficiency.
Also; ask yourself why have rig counts declined? It is not because there is nothing left to drill. There are a decade’s worth of drilling locations left.
The biggest impediment to even more rigs and more production is a lack of infrastructure to transport it, refine it, etc.There is no point in a lot of new drilling when you can’t move the product.
When production actually begins to decline, which will happen eventually, then rig counts will go back up.
Plus, remember that US shale oil is light while our refineries run on heavy. (The refineries were all built before the shale revolution began.) We can’t even use all the light oil we produce. So we are exporting 4-5 mbpd of light while we import over 8 mbpd of heavy for our refineries.
Export capacity is another bottleneck that reduces the need to drill more shale right now. Recall that Mish recently posted a story about all the ships heading to the US to load up on our light oil.
Anyway. Nice to discuss this with you.
Mr. Shellman destroys the better efficiency stuff.
They are drilling longer laterals to increase cash flow. A short term decision.
This ultimately screws things up for the long run.
I am out of my eleement here.
Read Mr. Shell.man
I do read his stuff. But that doesn’t mean I have to take everything he says as the final word on this topic. There are a lot of very bright people who have different opinions.
Thanks PapaDave for the conversation.
‘Short of a miracle in nuclear stage frac’ing, $200 oil and $10 gas, we have reached the summit in the Permian. “
Yes. Thanks for the discussion. We can agree to disagree and see how things turn out going forward.
Incidentally, if prices rise significantly, as Shellman suggests, I will make a lot of money from my large investment in oil stocks (particularly Canadian ones). So I am not against higher prices. I am just not expecting oil to get over $100 for a sustained period of time.
The media, the fourth state is truly the fifth column. I would say 80% or more of the media liens left, most of it far left. This includes fact checkers, bloggers, tweeters, Hollywood, athletes, entertainers, all the circuses.
Corporations, major industries, Silicon Valley, hedge funds and banks, at least 80% of the bureaucracy of the federal and state governments, and my best guess is probably 50 to 60% of the military lean Leftist. How do I know? Because I worked you D and have for 34 years.
The media, and the Democrats (but I digress they are the same) have only themselves to blame for creating the dumpster fire that is the economy of this nation. Sure, this includes the Bush clan, Trumpy bear, and a large swath of the swamp over the last 50 years.
They can calculate and create new equations all they want for their precious CPI, PCE, unemployment. It’s corrupt. The stock market is nothing but hedge funds, corporations, and banks, the individual investor doesn’t matter unless your last name is Buffet.
I served so people could be free to achieve all their hopes and dreams in life. My great uncle didn’t get blown off a ship in the battle of New Britain so people could vote for Marxism, a techno fascist authoritarianism, Socialism, free healthcare, open borders and unlimited illegal immigration, unsustainable debt, or for a president and Department of Justice to literally put their political enemies in jail.
And the question needs to be asked, why are people in a rotten mood? Cmon man.
I wouldn’t say the media is far left across the board. They are a mix of social left, neocon right and pro corporate with a lot of empty virtue signaling for the working class. I would call it very definite official Democratic Party line tilt in the media instead
Because in their gut, they know everything is broken.
AND it doesn’t do anything good to our mood to watch or “Ally” bomb ambulances, hospitals and kill lots of children every single day, for over a month now, using weapons we-the-people in the USA are coerced by the MIC to fund.
israel is pax dumbfuckistan’s pawn and bitch. nothing more. watch the genocide from offshore……………shalom and al salaam alukum and peace.
Didn’t know Canada was Israel’s master
“the 300,000-plus people who got jobs feel better about the economy” The 130 million (or whatever) that had jobs all along have a different take on the matter.
Inflation is moderating? Let me know when 2 liters of diet pepsi are again $1.79 rather than $2.59, when eggs are $2 rather than $4 a dozen (prices keep changing), and when postage stamps are $0.50 rather than whatever it is this week. Oh, haircuts at $15 rather than $28 come to mind, too. Until then, inflation is through the roof and not moderating
Your wish has been granted. A dozen eggs at Walmart is $1.34 and 2 liter pepsi is $1.98.
You actually eat those Walmart eggs? Not me thanks
diet pepsi? that’s poison. not food item. mish’s readers are like high class poor white trash.
Hey Lynwood why don’t you post under your given name and stop being a putz
hey schmuck. i used to be a federal agent, UST. why don’t you take a big gulp of shut the fuck up. you are a basic douche baggery and ass hattery PHD level fuck face. met lots of your nosey bitch types in life……. btw MY NAME IS FUCK YOU
Why is everyone so upset? This is what they voted for.
I bet if everyone voted how well Biden is handling the economy he would do so much better than the polls.
I was thinking he should blame corporate greed. Wheat and corn prices are down 30% and oats are down 10% yoy, and yet General Mills and Proctor and Gamble keep raising prices by double digits. Total BS.
Joe Biden: the new Spiro Agnew
the new FDR and mussolini all wrapped up. amerikans are nihilists. they stand for nothingness. bombs away.
Well I can’t speak for others but I stand for Tacos and kisses
MY NAME IS FUCK YOU