The advance import-export data for February is another doozie. Three charts. 
The Advance Economic Indicators Report for February shows another huge trade imbalance.
Advance International Trade in Goods
- The international trade deficit was $147.9 billion in February, down $7.7 billion from $155.6 billion in January.
- Exports of goods for February were $178.6 billion, $7.0 billion more than January exports.
- Imports of goods for February were $326.5 billion, $0.6 billion less than January imports.
- The January balance was revised from $-153.3 billion to $-155.6 billion increasing the deficit by $3.3 billion.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $902.9 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from January 2025, and were up 1.1 percent (±0.7 percent) from February 2024.
- The December 2024 to January 2025 percentage change was unrevised from up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
- Retail inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $823.0 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from January 2025, and were up 4.6 percent (±0.7 percent) from February 2024.
- The December 2024 to January 2025 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent) to up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent).
Goods Balance of Trade and Advance Goods Balance Detail
Goods Exports and Imports
Exports have gone nowhere since July of 2022. Imports started a surge in July of 2023.
Not all of the surge is tariff related but most of the recent spike is.
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I am about ready to require logging in to comment or vote on comments.
There is too much nonsense and I am deleting a lot of garbage.
Perfectly reasonable, Is there a different procedure to log in? All I see is a “subscribe” button.
Use the same e-mail you use for wordpress (create an account if you don’t have one) You can create an avatar with gravatar and link it to your wordpress account to get it to show up here
Thanks!
I thought you always had to log in to post. Unless something changed.
You’ve uncovered the hidden pandemic of mental illness. I don’t recall you posting so many “there’s too much garbage” when you were criticizing Biden but now that Trump is in office and getting the brunt of real and valid criticism, you’re getting garbage comments.
At least now you now where the mental illness comes from, the die hard trumpers. Of course, we all knew that was self-evident and self-illustrative.
“At least now you now where the mental illness comes from, the die hard trumpers. Of course, we all knew that was self-evident and self-illustrative.”
The pot calling the kettle black. Speaking of mental illness? Very self-evident and self-illustrative. Everyone is entitled to their politics but their isnt anyone here who tops you on your hate.
Very self evident here the closed minds on both sides, republican and democrat. The other guy is bad, whatever the other guy does is bad but if my guy does it, its ok. Critical thinking is not allowed. When Biden was president , every single one of your posts was dont complain, now with a republican president all you do is complain.
“MPO45v2
18 hours ago
This is going to decimate Canada…..
O Canada! Our tariff-ed home and native land!
True patriot love thou dost in us command.
We see thee rising prices, dear land,
The True North, strong and tariff filled;
And stand on guard, O Canada,
We stand on guard for thee.”
Lol. What’s your beef with me? I simply took some liberties rewording the Canada national anthem to make it a bit funny given the circumstances.
The irony here is that your problem with tariffs is Trump yet you take it out on me. As I recall, you were a trump fan. Do you understand the mental illness now? Do you understand the irony?
I think you could make a lot of progress with selective banning of certain user handles, to establish the standard you expect comments to live up to, without requiring logging in.
Similarly, logging in won’t solve the problem unless there is enforcement of standards.
Let the accumulated red votes stay, but expose their names.
Trump is threatening tariffs on copper now (45% imported) in addition to steel (25% imported) and aluminum (50+%).
All of which are needed to improve our electricity production and transmission.
Meanwhile, Trump declared an electricity emergency a few weeks ago. He wants to rapidly expand our production and transmission of electricity. Yet he is making this a more expensive proposition.
I see he is finally talking about beautiful clean coal again. He did that in his first term as well. During his first term, the result was over 50 coal facilities closed and many thousands lost their jobs in the industry.
Warehouses are full of imports and stagnant US service sector wages relative to inflation will tend to keep those warehouses full. This week GDPNow for the 1st quarter is estimated at negative 1.8%. Is there an observable quantitative mathematical model for the growth and decay of composite equity asset valuations within the asset-debt macroeconomic system? A 3 Feb 2025 8/19/13 of 20 day 3-phase growth and decay fractal series which contained the SPX peak valuation on 19 Feb 2025 is similar to the 1929 12/29/27 day growth and decay crash series containing the DJIA 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation. Smoot-Hawley-like tariffs, Federal job cuts, and decreases in deficit spending(needed but not in a recession) will make the contraction and global equity market crash even more severe.
Biden sinkhole will bury the radical dems. These sinkholes are waiting for them.
Mish, maybe people do buy 2 refrigerators if they think the price will go up next month due to tariffs 😉
There’s precedent – the new- and used-car carry trade was very profitable during COVID.
Q4 2024 PCE ex food and energy is: +2.6%. Import m/m is down: (-)0.6B. Inventory
change m/m is up 0.3%. The unemployment is : 4.1%. QQQ retraced 38% of the move down. If QQQ tests July high it will retrace 50%/62%. Thereafter it might cont down in Apr/May. If by mid year QQQ closes above 480 ==> QQQ Will reach all time highs, after all time highs, in its next flights. Landing between flights is mandatory.
After 1Y in re-accumulation QQQ might popup.
Will brake pads, tires and gear shifts become the new “fentanyl” of border smuggling? Somehow I think there’s about to be a whole new huge black market for smuggled auto parts. Tariffs don’t work because alternative markets form….
But don’t worry Tesla is going to be spared because all the parts are US made wink,wink.so let’s buy Teslas
But if you buy a tesla you might get torched or vandalized. At the very least, you’ll be paying the highest insurance rates for the nazi-mobile.
What kind of person supports a political party who thinks violence is the answer or the least bit acceptable.
But enough about the January 6th rioters and their republican enablers…
January 6th was wrong also. Democrats are literally cheering destruction on a daily basis. One side destroys cities and lives. One
Trump pardoned every single one of the J6 rioters, even ones who assaulted capitol police officers.
So its okay to destroy people’s property? Many of whom are literally just trying to drive a car and not be political? I’m not debating this. It should be simple and you should be able to say its outrageous and not earning any future voters for you party. Its turning people off. Just like guys beating the shit on girls in female sports. But you do you.
I don’t know. the only acceptable answer to any question for me is profits.
There used to be a cool cat name “Kidhorn” around these parts that talked about his two cool new Teslas. I feel sorry for that kid, everyone probably thinks he’s a nazi now.
Chin up Kidhorn, things will get better for ya, just keep those Teslas in the garage and Uber.
Imagine how Jeff Green is feeling these days 🙂
“Imagine how Jeff Green is feeling these days 🙂”
Haha, Thanks for my chuckle of the day.
Tesla terrorists and suboteurs will sit in jail for several years.
Not necessarily. Those who only key or do body damage to a car and are caught might be offered the opportunity to pay the repair cost out of pocket.
This could be a substantial cost.
Maybe 10 years ago, someone hit my car in an office parking lot. They drove away. But someone was watching out of a window. They left a note telling me the color/make/license plate of the car and where the person worked. They offered to be a witness.
I called the police. Officer went to speak with them and offered them the opportunity to pay the repair cost or be arrested for hit and run. They chose to pay. Cost them $1800.
Good question: many Americans were horrified by Jan 6th and equally horrified when the instigator was elected president and then pardoned those criminals who were responsible. Somehow others still support this den of thieves and traitors.
What’s ironic is that a majority of people who bought Tesla’s were Democratic Greens. Now suddenly they are being vandalized by other Democrats as a way to somehow get back at Musk (as if destroying private property hurts Musk in any way).
I was thinking the same thing. They say politics makes strange bedfellows and here we are….Trumpers supporting EV “green” tech while Dems torch it. Only in America.
Musk is the richest man in the world. He should offer to repair any Tesla free of charge that someone has damaged through such vandalism.
It’s generally called cognitive dissonance.
Purchased a critically needed broadcast transmitter vacuum tube today from “Chyna”, not many made in the U.S. any longer. Guess this will show in your future “Tariff Front Running” stats, Mish. My company will soon let me know whether it’s feeling “liberated” in April.
The Golden Age has begun! What a show!
Waiting for more tariff announcements from Trump, and the responses from our former friends and trading partners.
Thank you for breaking down the car tariffs yesterday. They are far less onerous for than people think.
Yes, Trump backed down from his rhetoric, but it is what I expected and price expectations showed all along.
There is further indication today that it may be less still.
Seems to be a bigger issue for European producers who ship into USA. Not so much for car companies who source from Mexico and Canada where existing arrangements will remain in general. I am in the market for a car this summer so it should be interesting. I assume my trade value just went up as well.
My pleasure. Just trying to present the facts as best I can.
I am not a fan of tariffs. However, I am
watching to see what all these Trump tariffs will actually accomplish. Trump keeps saying that the US is being taken advantage of because of high tariffs from our trading partners. Yet the reality is that most of our trade is already “free” and without tariffs with these partners.
And he is putting tariffs on many things that we simply cannot produce enough of ourselves, which seems counter productive. Like oil, potash, lumber, steel, aluminum, uranium etc. Which only serves to make US manufacturers LESS competitive.
Only time will tell. I am watching it all play out with great interest.
My biggest problem with these auto ones in particular is that they are too fast. I have no issue with changing the dynamics of building but it cannot happen overnight.