Retail sales took a big dive in January, down 0.8 percent. Negative revisions took away another 0.2 percent in December. 
Advance Retail Sales for January
The Commerce Department reports the Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services for December.
- Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2023.
- Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
- The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).
- Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2023, and down 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) below last year.
- Nonstore retailers were up 6.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.3 percent (±2.3 percent) from January 2023.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
The key phrase in the report is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
It’s real (inflation-adjusted sales) that matter to GDP. The Commerce Department does not provide that calculation but I do.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Since 1992
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
Retail vs Nominal Chart Notes (Millions of Dollars)
- Real retail sales peaked in April of 2022 at 234,066. They are now 226,130. That’s a decline of 3.4 percent.
- Nominal retail sales were 675,899 in April of 2022. They are now 700,291. That’s a rise of 3.6 percent.
Somehow we avoided a recession, assuming we really did.
Great Consumer Demand?
What is touted as a great consumer demand economy is entirely an inflationary mirage.
In January, car sales fell a huge 1.7 percent from December. Gasoline store sales also fell 1.7 percent. Most of the gasoline decline was due to falling prices, looking ahead the price of gasoline is rising.
Factoring in the CPI, overall real sales decline 1.1 percent vs the reported 0.8 percent.
Excluding cars and gasoline, retail sales were down 0.5 percent. Factoring in the CPI, real sales excluding cars and gas stations fell 0.8 percent.
For more discussion of the latest CPI numbers, please see Another Hotter Than Expected CPI Led by Shelter, Up Another 0.6 Percent
Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar
On February 8, I noted Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap
Yesterday, I noted Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap
Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.
The strength of the consumer and the economy are both hugely overrated.
“unexpectedly”… LULZ.
hardly.
try “100% predictable & utterly expected”… as were the massive downward revisions for Oct-Dec. numbers.
Unexpected???? Yikes.
The big question is HOW can people be so impressed by false numbers? The answer: REPETITION. The mainstream media is a gravy train of propaganda. The numbers DO NOT LIE but they LIE ABOUT THEM.
Increasing number of consumers CC tapped-out/prioritizing purchases for a coming “bad moon rising”? Best be git’n “red county rural hunkered down”!
Surprised???
I warned of these revisions downward for months…
I just follow the TREND for the last 10+ years!!!
Yet the sheeple believed the Gov’t!!!!
The increase in Federal debt is postponing an economic downturn. The budget deficit is not the deficit. It does not include things that are not in the budget, like social security. The debt will increase by $2 trillion this year. Loan me $2 trillion and I can throw a heck of a party too.
The consumer is spending more on experiences. They would rather take a trip to Europe than buy a new coffee table that just sits there and does nothing. Plus, they probably already refurnished their house during COVID.
Credit card delinquencies for the 18-29 and 30-39 demographics would have been higher if many student loans were not forgiven.
The effects of high-interest payments are kicking in.
SPY [1D] is testing Feb 12 fractal zone. If it fails tomorrow it might start a big correction.
Hope springs eternal I guess. The current bull market started October 2022 and the average duration of bull markets is 5 years and 4 months with average gain of 184%.
Weather.
With the inflation still devouring, they won’t come back.
As the sales are counted in inflated money, high prices, not actual volume, if they ‘rose’ by less than 10% they were already vanishing. For the index to fall like this proves the exodus is on very bigly.
Welcome to the inflationary depression, and accompanying social collapse.
The fun is still just beginning.
Don t worry the Fed will bring rates down to -10% or more when necessary , treasury bonds gonna be mighty expensive ….then they are ‘guaranteed ‘ by a insanely debt and derivatives run system….
As was demonstrated only a few years ago.
When the going gets tough – the Fed passes out free money.
I have nothing left to give
No problem! But now pay later! Or not, we’re selling the loan to a pension fund.
I have an acquaintance that calls them “Buy now, maybe get paid later” loans. He used to run a “buy here, pay here” car lot and pointed out how he could always repo the vehicle but how are you going to repo BNPL stuff as it’s usually appliances, electronics, and other ‘stuff’.
I predict multiple articles and media segments on how ‘targeted’ and ‘unfair’ BNPL is, just like the payday loan strip mall centers. Expect “laws” to be passed either banning or severely restricting the practice especially in the lead up to the election.
Maybe they’ll just wave the magic wand and make all the BNPL debt disappear, like student loans.
If BNPL is banned economy will fall like a stone.
No chance of banning before election.
Get less stuff for more money. What’s not to love?