Polls have narrowed but Trump is still in the sweet spot. An electoral map shows Pennsylvania is directly on the roadmap to the White House.
A Wall Street Journal poll Shows Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing States
The poll of the election’s main battlegrounds shows Trump holding leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—on a test ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. Trump holds similar leads when voters are asked to choose only between him and Biden.
The one outlier is Wisconsin, where Biden leads by 3 points on the multiple-candidate ballot, and where the two candidates are tied in a head-to-head matchup.
In another challenge for Biden, the survey found signs that he has yet to consolidate the winning coalition that backed him in 2020. Across the seven states, Biden is winning 68% of Black voters, as well as 48% of Hispanic voters and 50% of voters under age 30 on the two-candidate ballot.
Those support levels are almost identical to the backing Biden had in the Journal’s February poll of the national voter pool and are far weaker than what he won in 2020. Nationwide, Biden that year carried 91% of Black voters, 63% of Hispanic voters and 61% of voters under age 30, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate that year.
Third-party and independent candidates represent an unpredictable element in the election, drawing 15% across all of the swing states. That includes 11% who back Kennedy, whose support rises as high as 15% in Nevada and 13% in Arizona. An additional 10% are undecided across all seven states.
The up-for-grabs voters are also disproportionately young and from racial and ethnic minority groups—one reason that Biden appears to be underperforming his 2020 support levels among those groups.
270-to-Win
The website 270-to-Win has North Carolina in the Trump column and so do I. It would be very difficult for Trump to win without NC.
Pennsylvania is Key
If Trump won Pennsylvania and Georgia, that would put him at 270. Some interesting possibilities could lead to a 269-269 tie.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan and the rest of the tossups go to Biden, we would have a 269-269 tie.
We could also get a tie if Trump won Pennsylvania and Arizona, and pulled off an upset in New Hampshire.
270-to-Win Explains Ties
If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. Senators would elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win.
State House delegations can cast their vote for president from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes, while Senators are limited to the top two candidates in their vote for Vice-President.
It is important to note that an apparent tie when all the states are called does not mean that there is actually a tie. The Electors meet on December 17, 2024 (the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December) to cast their votes. Only about half the states have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner.
It is possible that an Elector could cast his or her vote for another person. We saw that in the 2016 election, when seven Electors were ‘faithless’.
As of late September, 2023, Republicans hold a 26-22 edge in House delegations. Two states, Minnesota and North Carolina, are evenly split.
However, it is the members of Congress elected in November, 2024, and seated in January, 2025 that would take on this responsibility.
As is sits now, Republicans hold 26 states so Trump would be president. The Senate could conceivably pick Biden as VP.
Imagine that.
I expect Republicans will win the Senate. So ponder the reverse: Democrats win a majority of state delegations but Republicans win the Senate. Biden is president and Trump is Biden’s VP.
Also ponder a 269-269 tie in which an elector does not vote as designated. I 2016, seven didn’t.
If that were to happen again, it would take a preliminary 277 for a majority. That means Trump would need Pennsylvania, Georgia, and at least one more state.
Yikes. This can easily get very messy constitutionally.
Does anyone sense we need a change?
Neither candidate is a change agent. Gridlock has proven to be good so I think we will get more of it. I’ll go out on a limb and say Trump will not win. Things will look different by summer. A few weeks ago Biden was losing but now has suddenly pulled even. Mainstream Republicans and independents will err on the side of caution come November.
It’s really hard to say. Both are bad candidates, but Trump’s opponent is atrociously bad, just as Hillary Clinton was.
It seems fair to say that whilst the establishment might not win, the electorate is almost guaranteed to lose.
Yes we need a change. We need at least one, or maybe to additional parties. For example a center right and/or a center left party. There is currently no effective centrist representation in either party so nothing can get done. Are constitutional changes needed to get this to happen? I do not know, but the current system is not working. My dream is that a number of centrist Republicans would join with a number of centrist democrats and form a centrist block that could ally with either the hard right or hard left on specific issues an form a majority to get things done on those specific issue. The population is actually more centrist and in favor of a lot of things that cannot get approved because of the current setup.
“centrist” is such a meaningless term.
Both parties are ostensibly centrist, with extremist factions currently dominating the Democrats, but still a fringe on the Republican side. As in Europe, the so-called “far right” is the centre, and the establishment is far left, the public are ignored.
Should say
Trump needs to pick up the few cities in PA 😆 they elected Fetterman they can put anyone they want in 😆😆😆
None of these polls matter… there will be record mail in ballots in every swing state. You can already guess which party these ballots will swing for.
First of all, a vote for Biden is actually a vote for Kamala since he might not even last a year if he wins the presidency. Kamala Harris is not capable of doing any job in govt. or the private sector.
Mt hope is that he might make a better choice for vp, which would increase his chance of winning.
Neither is Trump. This is really an election about sanity vs anarchy.
Which one do you imagine is the “sane” candidate? Trump is not a real right-winger; Biden says whatever too…
What that Stalin guy said + broker sewers, pizza box window shades and midnight vans from Long Island to PA and … ah … you know … Covid!
As others have noted, the difference between Biden and Trump is the difference between the dentist and gum disease. Nobody likes the dentist, but when confronted with gum disease most rational people (and suburban women are rational) in the end go with the dentist. That’s why Trump has been losing every election since 2016.
“every”?! There’s only been one!
PA is a weird state. I know because I lived there and was so glad to go back home to FL. Even my best friend who lives in and is from PA concurs. The old people there are staunch Democrats and no matter what, they’ll die that way. Their children and grandchildren have been fed the koolaid far too long.
Depends on where you live. It’s Pittsburgh on the left, Philadelphia on the right and Alabama in between.
I grew up in the “in between” part of PA. I can confirm your observation is generally correct.
“That includes 11% who back Kennedy…”
I just read that some 7 months before the election, RFK Jr. is still being denied Secret Service protection. His life has already been potentially threatened twice at campaign events, by people who were armed.
Biden administration is weaponizing the Secret Service against a competitor. Another attack on our democracy.
Does he really want secret service protection? What happen to the last 2 Kennedys that ran for president or the one who was protected by secret service.
Looks increasingly good for Biden; no need to write off democracy and rule of law in America yet. Come November, Trump has a hard upper ceiling around 45 percent that he is unlikely to crack given his constant lies and threats. Biden just needs to keep up his State of the Union posture.
45% is plenty enough to win. It’s not a popular vote contest, it’s a race to 270. So Trump could get 0 votes in California and NY and still win the presidency in a landslide while being annihilated in the popular vote.
You’re either stupid, a government employee, a union grifter or a troll. Or maybe all of the above
Please use facts and logic to prove me wrong! This is not a Steve Bannon podcast.
The issue is that you made the talking point that Biden is for the rule of law and democracy when he’s weaponized the 3 letter agencies and much of the judiciary he controls via DoJ against his political adversary and he doesn’t enforce law at the border……in your first sentence. That’s why your post is a shill post. It does NOT look increasingly good for Biden, or whomever is calling the shots for the age-addeled President. He was leading in all of these locations in 2020.
I understand that you would like to say it looks good for him but then you go and introduce the nonsense of writing off democracy or the rule of law. SMH.
Oh Albert, do you know anyone in Chicago and New York? Those cities have been flipped because your man loves mass illegal immigration. Those cities are turning on the plank of wood. Sorry for the reality check. Toodles!
Trump was leading in all swing states in 2020 just before the democrats shut down polling districts, covered the windows and pulled out boxes of harvested ballots. The 3AM ark doesn’t lie.
ajh, you are correct. It doesn’t matter what the polls say, Biden (or whomever is the Dem nominee) will “win.”
I heard there were ballots from Mars too.
And a shitload from Uranus too.
Not since FDR has a president been elected to three consecutive terms.
After all that has happened and still all the support for Biden. I am surrounded by tards.
…and tardoganda … remember that there is a bell curve of voters, and no shortage of dumocrats on the shallow end
Remarkable. The lack of rational thinking is the real pandemic.
Obviously. A system which forces people to choose between 2 people who command no respect or hope has failed and lost the consent of the citizens.
US politics is grid-locked into a crazy arcane game in which a few minor constituencies in a handful of districts in a handful of counties in a handful of states gets to chart whatever course “they” have in mind, unrelated to the concerns on which the atavistic popularity contest for those constituencies will be decided.
One word: Switzerland
Does anyone really think Biden will run?
Biden hasn’t quit yet. I do remember when LBJ announced he would not seek the 1968 nomination.
One way or another he’ll be replaced at the Convention.
With woke AI
I bet Biden remembers that too… Dementia patients tend to retain memories from earlier in life.
I do hope that one of them, either biden or trump will be replaced with someone I can vote for.
They would be better off nominating an actual donkey and an actual elephant to run against each other.
Down his trouser leg, probably
He’s 1 fall away from going tango uniform.
With abortion amendment on ballot in Florida that puts it into the swing state category as well.
You’re dead wrong about that. FL is hard right. I know because I’m a Floridian.
So as 1 person you represent the whole state?
It all depends on where you live. The democratic strong holds are in the 3-4 most populated counties (Miami and Tampa areas) which have almost as much population as the rest of the state combined. So while it may appear everyone you know is voting Republican it may just be because you are in a Red area.
You’re assuming that catholic Latin-americans aren’t socially conservative as a group.
Won’t be nearly enough to flip the state for Biden. Plenty of people voting for abortion will still vote Trump.
It’s a very good point that some people seem to think that voters are a monolith that puck a sude, but many people pick n mix
That being on the ballot will have more impact outside Florida than inside (if Dems use it, and they will because it’s one of their only winning issues)
Florida is staying red
Florida might be blue from the ocean water by November.
..and red with the blood of human foetuses.
For swingers?
I’m generally exceptionally socially conservative and extremely far right, but i like abortion, because i’m a cynical bitter Malthusian misanthrope.
This poll shows a third party candidate can influence the outcome of an election, and there is a lot of voter remorse from 2020 as indicated by swing states.
PA will need the Marines to guard the ballot boxes.
But they won’t. Secretary of State is a dem as is the governor. If they guard the ballot boxes it’s to make sure the mules have unfettered access to the ballot boxes.
Unfettermaned, surely?
AAA reports that properly inflated tires can save you 3¢ per gallon. In related news, properly counted votes can save you $3 per gallon.
7 more grueling months of inanity.
More likely 57 months. The real ugly starts after the election and continues for 4 years beyond 1/20/2025
Now that we have our nominees that’s pretty much baked in
If Trhump were VP, it would be: “That Old Mofo in the Big House…”
It would be funny as fuck though
I remember in the 2000 post election recount one of the weekly magazines (“Time”?) came up with a scenario where the next POTUS would be the Senate Pro Tempore…100 year old Strom Thurmond.
Trump hasn’t even announced a VP yet.
If the VP is even a little centrist, Biden is cooked.
A good VP can easily pick up a big lump of the middle of the country who just wishes these two men would go away.
Only Biden’s VP pick matters because we all know that Biden ain’t running the country anyway. The only shot Biden has (if he runs) is to dump Kamala in favor of someone who could be an effective president.
Biden should pick Hillary, just for comedy value.
Wait, are you saying Headboard Harris wouldn’t be an effective POTUS? Maybe she would offer the honey pot for favors. Wouldn’t be the first time. Ask Willie Brown!
Trump should take a second look at Stormy Daniels. She is very centered.
A lot more convincing than Cumalla Horse
I think Tulsi Gabbard would be a nice choice for Trump.
She’d be a nice choice for lots of things…
I think the ideal VP should be a hot milf with nice tits who hits the gym regularly. It looks like the republicans have more candidates that fit that bill
Yeah, but the Dems have a lotta non-showering, non-shaving purple hairs running around. Tempting, huh?
But Joe has so much going for him … Full diaper, full bank accounts, full immigration, full lawfare, full deep state. How does a guy who is so full of it trail behind?
He was caught sucking his thumb the other day. THAT did it!
It probably had some poo on it.
gnarly!!
And Trump has so much going for him too….a veritable cesspool of a “man” has conned millions into thinking that he is their guy. The biggest cutting off your nose to spite your face that has ever occurred in US politics.
You have to make it funny if you want it to work. Lefties are generally weak piss when it comes to comedy, except when they’re taking themselves seriously like you are.
I want a President that doesn’t support genocide.
link to sonar21.com
The Zionists would have us at war with Iran.
That would lead to an international genocide.
But you only have to nuke the ragheads once, and it’s all Dune from there on.
Remembering that Joe Biden led almost every 2020 poll right up to the election, it has to be disheartening to the Democrats that Trump has led most polls for months. No one is looking for it, but a surprising Trump landslide is very possible.
Brexit was the same, until the British europhile establishment went to war.
They moved the polls from 60-40 to 52-48 by pumping taxpayer money into blanket lying and smearing campaigns… And they would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for those pesky kids, scoob.
It’s going to be unbearable how much ink and electrons are used to speculate on this popularity contest where the most talked about people are not popular. Can the subject continue to generate a financial boon of clicks and comments for media outlets or will fatigue finally set in?
In the meantime, pull for the percentage of undecided+other to surpass those opting for the R and D reruns.
It’s only a matter of time before it formally becomes a reality tv show, which obviously gives one of them an edge.
I don’t think it would get messy constitutionally. In fact, the Constitution would hopefully be followed.
At the founding of our nation, it was normal for the VP and PResident to be from different parties. It happened more than once and the nation didn’t fall apart.
We are so used to the President having his VP run with him that we can’t imagine any other scenario, yet, that is exactly how it functioned at the beginning of our nation.
Till 1804 when the 12th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified that was true.
Martin Armstrong computer is telling him the real Biden approval is around 8-9%
I have a deep-seated suspicion that Armstrong’s ‘quatum physics based AI’ is nothing but a scam. I used to follow his blog and frankly agree with alot of points made there… but there are alot of things that simply don’t make sense about his claims.
All the censorship on social media is also purportedly “the algorithm”.
It’s just a layer of plausible deniability, when it’s actually human input.
Well, “quatum physics based AI” IS a scam. Ergo… Heck, AI is a scam…..