Small businesses with employees 1-49 are struggling in 2024. Large businesses are booming. 
Please consider the ADP® National Employment Report for November 2024.
While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed. Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.
The focus of this report is on small businesses. I believe part of the error in the BLS monthly jobs reports is undersampling of small businesses and oversampling of large employers.
20-49 Employees
Employment in businesses with 20-49 employees is down 8 of 11 months in 2024, shedding a total of 99,000 jobs.
Year-Over-Year Employment Trends by Employer Size
Year-Over-Year Employment by Employer Size in Thousands
- 1-19: Jan 2024 +994, Nov 2024 +140
- 20-49: Jan 2024 +837, Nov 2024 -118
- 50-249: Jan 2024 +1,142, Nov 2024 +578
- 250-499: Jan 2024 +171, Nov 2024 +261
- 500+: Jan 2024 +219, Nov 2024 +860
Year-Over-Year Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment
Year-over-year employment in small businesses is down from 1.8 million in January to a mere 22,000 in November.
Trends are especially ominous in businesses of 20-49 employees, down by 118,000 (previous chart).
Total Employment by Employer Size
The above chart puts the shrinkage of small business expansion into the proper light.
Small businesses employ more people than medium business and large businesses.
Small business employment is 43.3 percent of total employment and growth has stalled.
If you are looking for reasons Trump won the election, there is another one.
Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
On November 20, I commented Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
My prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million. My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.
The BLS Birth-Death model is seriously messed up an/or the BLS is oversampling large corporations and under sampling small businesses.
The BLS monthly nonfarm payroll reports are consistent garbage.
Reflections on BEA Revisions
If jobs are overstated, income is too. And on Wednesday we found out the BEA overstated wages by a massive $91.8 billion from $156.8 billion to $65.0 billion.
Please note the Huge Negative Revision of $91.8 billion to Second-Quarter Private Wages
The BEA commented “With the incorporation of these new QCEW data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points from the previously published 3.4 percent estimate.”
I commented “The BEA hugely revised GDI to the downside. Hmm. It seems that voters weren’t fooled.”
Click on the above link for more details and charts.
Continued Unemployment Claims Increase Another 9,000
November 29: Continued Unemployment Claims Increase Another 9,000, It’s Recession Looking
It’s increasingly hard to find another job if you lose one.
Nonfarm payrolls are Friday. Expect another joke plus more revisions.
I hope I’m wrong but this will get worse under Trump. It will be more pay to play
We need more monopolies and hence more oligarchs. Small business does not produce oligarchs. It only employs people. People are tiresome. Profits are where its at.
Marc Andreessen was talking to Rogan about big business getting regulations passed in order to protect themselves from competition, as they can afford the cost of meeting compliance, while small competitors can’t.
Has your daddy got money? No? You don’t get to play.
I was told farmers would be unhappy with Trump because muh tractors might be more expensive because of tariffs.
However, the Ag Economy Barometer, a survey of 400 farmers across the nation, skyrocketed in October and November, on the prospects of Trump restoring the ag industry to greatness in his second term.
“With little change in input costs or still-low crop prices since October, the November result is a reminder of support for Trump among US farmers,” BI analysts noted.
That’s ADP reporting. From payroll servicing? How much is due to small employers keeping employees but deciding they can no longer continue the expensive ADP payroll service and switching to Quickbooks?
one is still hanging on
great video
watch it soon before they get rid of pbs!
https://youtu.be/VDCDDx_v3Ok?si=Eiso_ZV_mUrWkRxz
The Atlantic had a great article on food deserts across America. It’s a growing problem impacting rural areas. So much for “everyone’s leaving big cities!”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/food-deserts-robinson-patman/680765/
Not everyone. But surely grocery stores and pharmacies in cities that don’t enforce the laws. And then people complain that everything is locked up. Keep voting D
Laurene Powell Jobs is not hungry, no worries. Crazy yes, but not hungry. And very rich.
PBS is majority privately funded. They don’t even need Fed dollars. Should have took it away decades ago.
– The focus of this report is on small businesses. I believe part of the error in the BLS monthly jobs reports is under sampling of small businesses and oversampling of large employers
> I would think that the Amazon’s and all the big box/distribution point Players, have a great deal to do with this. Are there not rules in place to protect our employers/employees from such things from occurring! Not control but more fairness. If moves are made by the Feds, that will harm small businesses the most, whether on purpose or not, should it be allowed to occur. Maybe a tax break applied, like for parents of their business (household), where the break is due to having children and the cost of care let’s say. A downturn break for the businesses that can’t handle those sorts of financial occurrences, or as easily, as they don’t have the cushion and/or borrowing abilities. “Food for Thought”
– Y o Y by employer size (in thousands): 500+: Jan 2024 +219, Nov 2024 +860
> The Largest Group (Big-Box a Big Part?)
– Year-over-year employment in small businesses is down from 1.8 million in January to a mere 22,000 in November.
> Our Country’s Largest Employer
– If you are looking for reasons Trump won the election, there is another one.
> The Largest working/paying taxes group in the Country perhaps?
All by design. Governments think (and generally do via regulation, steered contracts) they can control the large corporations and the large corporations think they can gain favor and work with government. We’ve seen this movie before and it has a name.
Governments want a few large businesses they can control and thus allow monopolistic anti-competitive practices. Corporations that have become large are better able to handle the massive inflation, can use those government favors and swing their weight around. Just look at the top companies in the Fortune 500 and imagine who can/could supplant them. I can’t even imagine a small company taking any meaningful market share to become successful.
As a consumer the number of entities I do business with matches this post–I use a very very very few. And the duopolies exist in so much of our lives with the rest just operating on the periphery. You have 2 huge platforms with smart phones, 2 or 3 massive providers of search, one of whom is also the phone platform; 4-5 airlines, generally a single choice in power, garbage. I probably use 3 – 5 total retailers. Insurers are consolidating to weather the risk pool/inflation.
I can’t imagine the challenges the massive inflation has brought to the small business world along with the government regulations stacked to the moon in all aspects of their business. The barriers to entry which one might think should be easier in the age of technology are great thanks to Government, Inflation and the Already-Large Competitors fully capable of absorbing complexities and ready to muscle out the startups. Oddly I find I’m glad I’m near the end of the trail now. I’d like to think I’d work for a startup but the relative safety found by working for the behemoth is probably where I’d land/target.
Markets are pricing in absolutely no uncertainty, no reduction in deficit-spending and a continuation of record-high multiples. Not sure where I’d plant an investment flag for new money at the moment.
OT: Imagine UNH CEO being murdered yesterday and their shares rose 1%. The personal tragedy of human life lost notwithstanding, in what world does the uncertainty and shock of the loss of the CEO by the largest U.S. insurer trigger share price gain already at ATHs? Only in this crazy bubble we’re in.
“OT: Imagine UNH CEO being murdered yesterday and their shares rose 1%. The personal tragedy of human life lost notwithstanding, in what world does the uncertainty and shock of the loss of the CEO by the largest U.S. insurer trigger share price gain already at ATHs? Only in this crazy bubble we’re in.”
Perhaps the sudden, unexpected increase in headline/byline mentions pushed algos to bump it. Or perhaps the correlation of those two events does not mean that one caused the other.
You blame governments for this issue but it’s been in existence for centuries. It is very clear that this a naturally recurring phenomenon found in nature all over the place not just humans and government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution
I assume this is some sort of self-preservation mechanism not just for living life forms but political and social ones as well. It’s math not politics. Want to be a survivor? Change your math (profits) view instead of your political views.
Biden’s plan for AI was to allow 2 or 3 large companies to control the space, under control of the government. No others would be allowed. Biden had already debanked 30 founded tech companies, to prevent competition.
The shooter triggered it … bada boom cha.
One small business I wished went out of business is car dealerships. Tesla sells direct to consumers, why can’t others?
Car sale process needs to be streamlined and transparent.
State Franchise laws prevent direct sales to customers by manufacturers.
Car Dealerships ensure those laws don’t change by donating lots to politicians.
Besides, if dealerships went away you’d still be unhappy. The reason is then there would just be a monopoly by each manufacturer as in you could only buy a GM car from GM so they could charge what they want.
These days with the internet you can shop anywhere for a car and compare prices to know if you are being ripped off locally. That wasn’t possible a generation ago.
If the tax accountants found a loophole int the tax code, they would swarm to it like flies to you know what, but car dealership stick to the state franchise laws as it their life depended on it.
Besides, they could still sell used cars.
Buying a car via internet shopping is the best way to buy a car. Dealers will give you their best price without having to go to the dealer and haggle over price. We bought our last 4 cars this way. Some dealers even have an internet department.
Very sad
Many never came back after Covid Theater.
“If it saves even one life … it’s worth it…after all…we are all in this together!” (c)
Walmart open 24/7 during covid.
Definitely not a pretty scene here in Los Angeles. Several(6) of my favorite restaurants have failed since September, they never fully recovered from the pandemic. For lease signs on commercial property are popping up everywhere.
Not a surprise. My adopted Jewish aunt whom I assist when needed just showed me a vendor doc the county of LA requires her to fill out for a few thousand dollar yearly contract. 33 pages of bullshit, pardon the language.
The business climate here in Los Angeles sucks unless you are a big operator then these local clowns we have for politicians roll out the red carpet for those big behested payments that get indirectly from them as well as large donations to their officeholder accounts. 🤷🏻♂️🤧🤡
Not to mention the rising power of the Democratic Socialists (crazies) on the LA City Council.
I was in LA last week and the traffic was as bad as always. I saw no signs of closed restaurants or places doing that poorly. Burbank, Pasadena, Anaheim and Palm Springs were all packed. If people have moved out of LA and SoCal, it wasn’t visible last week.
https://www.removepaywall.com/search?url=https://nchstats.com/los-angeles-population/
Both Harry’s and Frank’s Restaurant, which was featured in a gekko Geico commercial, are still closed in Burbank. Was on San Fernando, downtown, and noticed 4 small store fronts were empty. Another had been recently leased but unopened.
It’s just the inflationary depression closing in. It has a long way to go too.
How far are we from “you can’t have a business license until daddy gives you 10 million dollars”?
Silly poors…
Unemployment at large companies is also declining due to layoffs, They are preparing for the new incoming admin and looking for any reason to cull the herd for higher stock prices. I was told H1B visas have already declined by 25% since election day. This number will go to 0 come 1Q25. Then layoffs will begin in earnest and offshoring jobs will become fashionable by big companies due to labor scarcity here. By April 2025, the US unemployment may hit double digits according to my forecast. After that it will be anyone’s guess what happens. We will be told it is all for the good of the country but that won’t pay the bills or keep the lights on. People in my area are buying up solar generators for the coming crash.