Cook Political Analysis Has Seen Enough
Dave Wasserman is U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Not Official Yet
This is not official yet, but it’s over.
The only question remaining is the margin of victory. Here’s how we know it’s over.
Where the Remaining Vote Is
The remaining vote is overwhelmingly Democrat according to the Nate Cohn’s Election Tracker Needle.
We think about 76,000 votes remain. If that’s right, Perdue would need to win about 58 percent of those votes. We think he’s on track to win between <5 and 50 percent. (Our best guess is 26 right now)
Going Down With Trump’s Ship
Jennifer Medina, NYT: Perdue campaign claims in new statement that they believe they won and will use “every available resource and exhaust every recourse to ensure all legally cast ballots are properly counted” — echoing Trump.
Meanwhile, Ossoff’s lead continues to grow. He’s now up by 12,806 votes. That’s larger than Biden’s victory in the state in November.
Never-Ending Lies
Stop the Steal
Today, the US senate will count the votes.
In the process, they will stop Trump’s blatant attempt to steal the election.
The Circle is Complete
In 2016 Trump won the election and had a majority in the both the House and Senate.
I would have preferred that Republicans keep the Senate for fiscal reasons even though they were piss poor fiscal stewards.
It was not to be. Democrats completed the circle and hold the Executive Office, House, and Senate.
Got Gold?
Mish
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I think a lot of change is coming. The populist lane is still wide open. This was an anti-Trump election not a mandate for the Dems. If more power isn’t shared with the working class and we don’t begin to deal with the ever widening chasm between the rich and poor a smarter populist will do a lot more than Trump. If it wasn’t for the pandemic Trump would have been re-elected with control over the house, senate and supreme court. The BLM movement is already gearing up for spring protests. Here in LA about half the working population works in the service industry and a large portion are idled with it being quite difficult to get unemployment. Meanwhile an estimated 4 billion has been stolen from Ca’s uneployment system thanks to our incompetent state government lending a lot more impetus to a recall push on Ca Gov Gavin Newsome. Buckle up folks, its gonna be an “interesting” ride!
It will be interesting to see if the Democrats can pass anything in the next few years. They have a very narrow margin in House. It’s less than the number of people in the Squad. They have a single vote margin in the Senate. They pretty much have to get everyone to agree on any legislation they want to pass. For a party that seem to only be united on their desire to stop Trump, that will likely be extremely challenging.
I think one of the earliest indication on whether they can get anything through will be if they can eliminate the filibuster. It only takes one defection on their side to stop it. If they can be unified enough to get that through, they might be unified enough to pass other legislation. If they can’t, I wouldn’t expect much to happen over the next few years.
Highly unlikely that the filibuster gets eliminated, that the Supreme Court gets packed…or any of the other scary things that Trumpites are setting their hair on fire about today……are really going to happen.
Maybe we can finally calm down. With these narrow victories, Dems are not going far left progressive. In fact, maybe some common sense legislation can actually get accomplished. The center could prevail – how exciting.
Center prevail?
Here?
Now?
I don’t think ‘fiscally responsible” is ever going to happen and if it does it appears in stupid ways: billions for overseas, $600 for the slaves at home.
B’bye Taiwan.
I don’t think this is going give the Dems any kind of huge mandate. We’ll see what they can do….I don’t expect too much.
They can change the tax laws and budget by reconciliation, just like the R’s did in 2017.
Taxes always go up on the people who really pay the lions share. The last time the upper middle class caught a real break was the first Reagan cut, and that got walked back in a year.
Beating taxes is the key to success in this country for bootstrappers. Whatever surplus you can try to create for yourself and your family, the government wants to take it.
I’m not the least bit impressed by Republican tax policy. The significant breaks all go to the top .01%.
The term “middle-class tax cut” is a complete canard. Those always amount to a bone thrown to two parent families who make 150K (or less) by both bread-winners working beaucoup overtime…..
Agreed
Time to learn Chinese Mish.
Kamalla Harris just became a lot moe important. She’s now the likely tie breaker in the Senate. Her stature just went up bigly
No. She will be president.
And so if she were to become President…..either by way of Biden stepping on a rainbow and going home to Jesus…..or by way of inheriting the mantle of the party of Roosevelt and LBJ in four years time?
What would be you worst nightmare there?
No problem with Kamala being president, despite what some nutcases claim. And yes, for the time-being, her status in the senate has gone up big.
I would have preferred Klobuchar. She has four years to convince me i was wrong
Klobuchar was fine too. Klobuchar seems to be more transparent, while Kamala is more polished and more difficult to read. However given the events that transpired in Minneapolis / Twin Cities and Klobuchar’s bad optics on that front , Amy’s future is severely limited in this environment.
Studying Mandarin
“I would have preferred that Republicans keep the Senate for fiscal reasons”
I never would have thought Mish was such a big fan of budget deficits.
Under normal circumstances I would agee with you but the GOP has been so corrupte by Trump this needed to happen. Besides when you consider what’s happened to our Federal budget deficit since Trump became President its awfully hard to argue Republicans are the fiscally conservative party. It isn’t
Not just Trump, but Bush 2, Bush 1 and Reagan.
The idea that the GOP is a party of fiscal conservatives has been a myth for decades.
Exactly what others said – Republicans only start spinning their fiscal conservative fairy tales when Democrats are in charge. When R’s are in charge – the deficits aren’t a problem any more. I haven’t seen a fiscally conservative agenda from R side going back to Reagan.
The last serious fiscal conservative I’ve seen run for president was Ross Perot.
I dont think the the republicans are fiscally conservative unless the dems are in charge. The republican tax cuts are just as bad as the dems give aways in the long run you still end up in debt.
who cares who win as long as gold prices is Up Up on the way.
Perdue has chickens.
I”m laughing my Ossoff
I believe you predicted a 50/50 Senate back in October. Congrats. I would expect there will be some use of the congressional review act for some of the rules that the administration has made as it was headed out the door. Needs only a simple majority.
I did, but not this way!!!
It’s actually kind of good, JB will have no excuses now and well of course he has spent well over 40 years getting us to this point. Maybe he can finish what he started.
Last time we had this we got Obama care you remember the insurance where you can keep your doctor promised then by the Chief Executive. What could go wrong?
2 of my kids have jobs with no health care provided and have ACA subsidies. They couldn’t afford it otherwise. It’s certainly not perfect, but we have to have a way for everyone to have access to health care, and universal care was a non-starter. By the way, the trend of losing your doctor was in place already, insurance companies cutting deals with big doctor groups and severely limiting in-network availability.
I don’t think there is any doubt that the ACA was a great benefit….and the rage against it was always more about hating on Obama than it was about any other aspect.
Funny how you take a very modest insurance reform and tie it to an unpopular President and make it into the worst possible thing in the world.
Trump could have never told you what was in the ACA, why it was bad (or not)…nor did he ever care. He still has no idea.
Like “draining the swamp”…it was a slogan that got votes…and big applause at rallies.
The funny thing is that the roaring crowds applauding when he said he was going to end “Obamacare” didn’t have a clue either….and most of them still don’t.
It’s another example of the work of corporate shills……being able to create a popular meme. Social media makes that easier than it used to be, unfortunately.
My friend Naomi Oreskes wrote a book called Merchants of Doubt….that should be required reading…..too bad people don’t read anymore.
My kids also benefited from ACA when they fell off my insurance at age 26, as most of our kids do.
Was obama an unpopular president. I guess it determines who you ask. You could say the same about trump to.
I think most americans want a funtional government as opposed to a disfunctional government. This is now a possibilty, in which case we should see the price of gold begin to come down in 2021. I’m perfectly fine if republicans and libertarians choose to plow all their money into gold though….
You think the democats will print less money? The only reason it will go down is because it is pressured down…..and not by people buying!
Dems have historically been better budget stewards then Republicans. So yes, it will be better than what pubs would have done.
You are wrong. Most Americans want to be left alone and gridlock is the best outcome.
the circle is complete. in four years trump managed to lose the presidency and both houses of congress. its a loser tri-fecta
Biggest looser and worst president ever….
i don’t quite get what happened, find it hard to believe that some voters went for warnock and purdue , splitting the ticket. perhaps more likely they only voted for one senator? either way its a mystery i’m looking to follow up on over my morning cofee.
Likely just name recognition, Purdue has had the seat for a while.
and chickens
Loeffler a weak candidate as well.
In addition to Loeffler being a weak candidate, Warnock also has much more name recognition in GA than Ossoff.