Nate Silver Live Updates
Nate Cohn Live Updates
New York Time Election Needle
Here’s the NYT Election Needle.
Live Mish Blog 8:40 EST – Newest Comments LAST
Warnock vs Loeffler 16% Reporting
Warnock vs Loeffler 16% Reporting
Important Points
- It’s not who is in the lead that matters but where the votes are coming from
- The needle is based on how well a candidate is doing vs expectations
Those are the key ideas behind the needle.
Update 9:00 PM EST: Nate Silver Comment
Turnout Speculation 538
29% Reporting 9:10 EST
Needle: 56% Ossoff, 60% Warnock
45% Reporting 9:31 EST
Needle: 57% Ossoff, 63% Warnock
Election Trivia
Kelly Loeffler is only the second woman to serve as a senator from Georgia. The other, Rebecca Latimer Felton, served for one day in 1922.
Washington County Flips
9:42 EST Turnout vs Expectations
The Narrative: Galen Druke 538
If Republicans do lose these races, the narrative turns into a choose your own adventure for Republicans. They can either say, “Hey, we need a Trump type to turn out low-propensity non-college-educated white voters, otherwise we lose.” Or they could say, “Hey, all that nutty authoritarian stuff didn’t work with suburbanites and we need to pivot.” I imagine we will see both of those options on offer from GOP candidates in 2022 and 2024.
Best News Yet for Dems?
Neither Good Nor Surprising for GOP
Election Turnout Trivia From Nate Cohn Via 538 Nathaniel Rakich
Nate Cohn of The New York Times/The Upshot estimates that total turnout will eventually hit 4.415 million — at least. It’s hard to overstate what a huge number that is for a runoff election. It would be more than double the previous record for highest turnout in a runoff, 2.1 million in 2008. Heck, it would be more than the 4.1 million people who voted in Georgia in the 2016 general election.
Youngest Senator Since Biden
https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/1346638113448349702
10:02 EST What’s Happening Now: Nate Cohn
The race now leans toward the Democrats. There’s a long way to go and it’s close, but thus far the Democrats have done better than they need, even if narrowly, across all vote methods and in all regions. The Republicans will need to do better in what’s remaining than we would expect based on how well they’ve done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.
Uncertainty Overstated
10:33 EST Republicans Take the Lead But It’s a Mirage
Republicans have taken a narrow lead in the tabulated vote, but the Democrats are clear favorites in both races. The overwhelming majority of remaining votes are in the Atlanta metro area, and while the race remains competitive, there’s no indication that the Republicans are poised to outperform expectations. The big Democratic vote left: the DeKalb County early vote. We expect these 170,000 votes to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin.
The above from Nate Cohn: What’s Happening Now
See my “Important Points” at the start of this post.
Remaining Votes
Seen Enough
Remaining Votes Update
Mish Comment
Comments of the Day
A Note on Vote Counting
Pretty Likely or Very Likely?
Vote Counts Halted for the Night
GA Sec of State
What Votes Remain?
Mish
Trump already laying blame
Nytimes now Warnock 95% and ossof 83%
Wrong year on top, but issued today…
Trump says he and Pence agree that Pence can act to reject electors..
If true, there would be no reason to bother holding elections anymore, as the party in power would stay in power in perpetuity.
I would say that if Pence tries to take action other than allowed, both Trump and Pence should immediately be impeached.
Fake af
What is fake af?
The statement? The sentiment in the statement? The lack of law undepinning the statement?
As my mother used to say, “Use your words”.
The graphic from “Trump Pence 2020.” There’s nothing on the web to corroborate that. Sorry, meant no offense.
President Trump on Tuesday said he and Vice President Mike Pence are “in total agreement” that the vice president “has the power to act” and block the certification of the 2020 presidential election results on Wednesday.
The president’s comments came after The New York Times on Tuesday reported that Pence, during a conversation with Trump, told him that he had no power to block the certification of the election results during the joint session of Congress on Wednesday.
But that doesn’t mean Pence agrees. It worries me that you believe one word from Liar Trump.
Economist calls it. Both seats going Democrat.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that vaccinating Americans against Covid is more critical than ever, especially as the new South Africa variant appears to inhibit antibody drugs.
“The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” said the former FDA chief in the Trump administration in an interview on CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” on Tuesday evening. “Right now that strain does appear to be prevalent in South America and Brazil, the two parts of the world, right now, that are in their summer, but also experiencing a very dense epidemic, and that’s concerning.
The South African variant is also known as 501.V2, and in mid-December officials reported that 501.V2 had been largely replacing other strains of the coronavirus as early as November. South Africa has already sustained the more than 1.1 million COVID-19 cases and more than 30,000 deaths, the most on the African continent.
Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from Bloom Lab, and explained 501.V2 does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective….
…looks like the Sapiens Ape ‘virus’ found a worthy opponent …at long last…
This would be a perfect time for the Republicans to decouple from Trump, if they were smart…
Bill Kristol…“This is an attempted coup d’état under color of law. It would be entirely appropriate to impeach Trump a second time and remove him from office before his term ends. No one who has participated in this poisonous buffoonery should ever hold office again.”
You know, I want to agree with Kristol, but I have this knee jerk reaction against anything that never-ending war neocon says. So when he says something I might agree with, I really have to research it before I agree to agree ( if that makes any sense).
Dekalb county, current count is 83% Dem, only 37% in, the Dem % will drop, but it still equates to net + 120K Dem votes for each candidate.
I believe this is over too, and was an hour ago but will wait a bit.
Rebecca Latimer Felton has an interesting biography. She was instrumental in fomenting the only successful coup d’etat in US history — the Wilmington Massacre of 1898. She wrote glowingly of the lynchers of Sam Hose. A more virulent racist could not have walked the Earth.
Wow. Just read her write-up in Wikipedia after seeing your post. What a POS!
The more you know…
She was appointed US Senator by Georgia as an honor. Just 98 short years ago. You’ve come a certain distance Georgia, now go all the way.
Trump’s sabotage of Perdue and Loeffler appear to have been effective. His $2000 ploy succeeded in making voters upset with Senate Republicans, and his attacks on the Governor and Secretary of State split the party at a time the party needed to pull together.
Trump is no Republican. He has destroyed the Republican Party.
That broken Trump clock is right twice a day!
The Republican Party destroyed itself when it aligned with Trump…
and continues to do so to this very day.
Mail-ins, as expected, are overwhelmingly Dem, while same day is down over 20% in the northern section of the state which is mostly republican.
November may not have been an outlier, but rather, predictive of a greater swing over time.
The Democratic Senate candidates under-performed Biden back in November. So far in the early polling they are outperforming where Biden was back in November. Looking good so far
Biden now owns it, expect to watch an epic economic collapse over thr next few years.
Why? Monetary policy isn’t changing, the printer will still go brrrr just like it did with the orange guy.
We jumped the fiscal shark back when GW Bush was still in office. The Fed has been running the show since then.
You so funny (unhinged).
the deficit is all on trump’s watch abetted by repubs..irresponsible tax cuts…determined ignorance which worsened pndemic effects…he’s dug the pit for the economy
I disagree. Congress makes the budget and creates the deficits. Most of the Government budget is mandatory and is set by laws congress passed and many were passed years ago. Put the blame where blame should go….congress.
If we are counting we see that Obama is at number 4 and trump is at number 10 for the award of highest deficit increase by percentage. So yeah, being in the top 10 is not good for either Trump and Obama. Honestly, I don’t know how Obama had such a big deficit considering trillions of dollars the FED injected into the economy. I am guessing we will continue to see big deficits no matter who is elected in the future.
In 1974, Congress trimmed the President’s role in budgeting with the passage of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act, (credit Nixon for this as he would not spend some of the money congress allocated so they took power away from the president) which created the Congressional Budget Office to provide Congress with its own financial analysis of the federal government’s fiscal outlook. Though the President, still required to submit a budget request each year, retained the essence of his role in budgeting, the importance of this responsibility has begun to fade as Congress increasingly makes its own decisions.
But don’t worry as deficits do not matter. LOL The Central Bank can buy the debt. Look at Japan as the blue print we are following. I suspect eventually the FED will buy stocks too.
I was reading about Loeffler’s Illinois/Chicago connection today. You know she went to DePaul. I thought one of my kids might go there, or even Roosevelt. We visited both with our youngest, the one who went to Queens. lol.
I still like Chicago. It’s too bad about all the negatives these days.
On MSNBC they are tracking exit polling and demographics and seeing if key voter groups are showing up at the polls in numbers above or below where they did for Biden back in November. They don’t care if Loeffler and Perdue win in Republican districts, They care if they they are doing so with margins above what Trump got. So far its looking good for the Democratic challengers but the night is very young. It’s too soon to predict.
Mind that the northern part of the state is the republican stronghold and the uncounted same day turnout is down well over 20%.
My bet is Republicans are already regretting Trump’s involvement