Politically Speaking
- Democrats were projected to win the Senate. They won’t. Even if Democrats win two Senate seats in Georgia runoffs (very unlikely), that would only make the score 50-50.
- Democrats were expected to pick up seats in the House. Instead, Republicans picked up 5.
- Republicans gained two new state trifectas in New Hampshire and Montana, after the GOP ran up majorities in the New Hampshire House and Senate. A state trifecta is when a single party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governorship.
- Republicans flipped the Montana governorship.
No Silent Support For Trump
The above 4 points show why Republicans lost the presidential election.
The one word synopsis is “Trump”.
If you would have asked me to guess the outcome of the election based on those points, I would have guessed wrong.
Add it all up, and voters were sick enough of Trump to replace him. The silent majority disliked Trump so much they voted him out with split-ticket voting.
Excellent Speech by Biden
“All those of you who voted for President Trump, I understand the disappointment tonight. I’ve lost a couple time myself. But now, let’s give each other a chance.”
Best speech Biden even made.
AOC Threatens to Resign
Business Insider reports AOC said she might quit politics, as some centrist Democrats blame progressives for House losses.
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told the New York Times in an interview that she might quit politics, depending on the hostility of her own party towards progressive causes.
- “I don’t even know if I want to be in politics,” she told The Times. She said the Democratic party has been hostile to progressive causes, like Medicare for All and the Movement for Black Lives.
- The interview happened Saturday, shortly after major news networks called the election for President-elect Joe Biden, and after some Democrats blamed progressive messaging for party losses down-ticket.
I have no doubt the addition of Kamala Harris to Biden’s ticket was a huge mistake. I said so at the time.
The Blue Wave fizzled due to progressives and the Red Wave fizzled because of Trump.
If AOC were to resign, I have but two words “Good Riddance”.
Progressives are delusional if they believe the election would have been better for them if only Biden were more progressive.
Judging from the results, Trump might have won.
Delusion is rampant on both sides.
Economic Gridlock
Voters wanted gridlock (or at least no progressive nonsense). Gridlock they will get.
Biden will struggle getting much of his agenda passed in Congress.
No Progressive Shift
- No progressive shift on taxes.
- No AOC-fueled green shift except the minimum Biden can do by mandate.
- No Supreme Court packing.
- No progressive Covid giveaway.
- No total bailouts of corrupt states like Illinois.
Covid Relief
There will be another Covid package, but it will be bipartisan not an insane giveaway. That’s a good thing.
Deficits Out of Sight
In regards to point 1, deficits will balloon out of sight.
Increasing deficits would have happened under Trump as well, but it will be more pronounced under Biden.
Drug Policy
It’s time for legalized drugs. We don’t have them now primarily because of Trump.
If nothing else, Biden can undo some of Trump’s policy by mandate. Better yet, we may see direct legislation.
Iran
Iran is another area where Biden can make a difference for the better.
It’s time for the US to end these economic sanctions.
Realistically they are an act of war by Trump on Iran. Trump’s economic blockade, forcing the entire world to go along, was far worse than any naval blockade in history. And naval blockades are an act of war.
Every US ally and even the US military said Iran was honoring the terms of Obama’s nuclear accord.
Covid
Biden will support more testing and that is a good thing,
Yet, it is very difficult to predict with any certainty the future economic impact of Covid. Will there be a vaccine? That works? Will states opt for more lockdowns?
6 Key Economic Takeaways
- There is nothing more the Fed can do. Stimulus is up to Congress but it will be governed by compromise. See The Fed is Stuck On Interest Rates, Unable to Do Anything
- The progressive agenda is dead for now.
- An end to the Iran economic embargo rates to negatively impact oil prices.
- Deficits will soar.
- Soaring deficits rate to be good for gold and hurt the dollar, albeit not as much as a full progressive state bailout.
- No one can say when the stock market bubble will pop. I long ago gave up trying.
Mish
I suspect the Democrats can find a couple RINOs in the Senate to pass all but the most radical parts of their agenda.
To answer Mish’s question, what is next? Buyers’ remorse!
Existential Fear and Trembling are the facts of this undecided election. We fear the botched election was a result of unconstitutional mail ballots that had attempted to steal the landslide of President Trump. And the trembling is on the Democrats who know a fake media, fake polls, fake software hacking, and fake social platforms could not create a blue wave. There are pitfalls to a premature, fake coronation. Dec 8 is the date we will know the truth, Mish. As Yogi Berra said, It ain’t over until the fat lady sings!
Oooh, boy!
Hey, wait a minute – you’re that dude in his underwear at the Giuliani press conference in the parking lot of the landscaping place, aren’t you!? You’re famous!
Berra didn’t say anything about the fat lady, btw. That one was first attributed the late Dan Cook, a long time TV sportscaster from San Antonio, Texas.
While I think there is a 99% chance of Biden becoming president, 2020 might give us more surprises. Biden dies from Covid? Trump resigns? The Senate President disqualifies Biden electors from contested states on December 14th which would lead to a major constitutional crisis?
I think the Senate will be purple. The democrats should be able to find a couple RINOs to vote for nearly everything they want.
Manchin has said no to public option and no to court packing. Sinema is reportedly skeptical of some Democrat plans too.
Just want to say that court packing is/was never going to happen without unassailable majorities in both houses of Congress. Not going to happen – and may be one of the reasons that the Democrats did not do as well as they’d hoped.
On the health care plan – since no one on the Republican side has taken this seriously, it is hard to have an opinion on what the plan would even look like. I’m betting a public option clothed in some sort of costume (like an expansion of Soc Sec.) might have a chance, even with some Republicans.
The most surprising outcomes of this election are not whom won, but rather the reactions to the election and how social media is impacting and shaping the thoughts of the electorate and the public at large especially on the right.
It is my firm belief that social media will be heavily regulated/curtailed/censored in the coming years within the USA/Worldwide by governments both the left and the right. I don’t think they realized the Pandoras box that has been opened, by opening the door to scalable tribalism, in the past the danger was nationalism, but we’ve atomized smaller now to the smaller tribal level, right now it’s holding together on the right to a national movement but it will no doubt atomize further and when it does watch the fireworks(literally).
If allowed to play out I don’t believe any stagnant country can stay together medium term under unfettered social media, it just encourages social level atomization as that’s what appeals and drives engagement, it hits you directly. We see this currently with Trump supporters but it’s not a Trump specific phenomena which most on the left believe, it’s a human phenomena.
I was out this weekend near a major downtown this weekend and saw the Trump supporters first hand contesting the vote, they are pretty real and what is driving them is not actually Trump but rather a firm belief that they are right and everyone else is wrong, you may laugh but this is very real, this type of available behavior is going to be seized on more and more by amoral political personalities(which is 95%+ percent of most politicians).
Interesting Times Ahead
What happened to you? – you once were a decent read – your hate for Trump and pro lockdowns, contract tracing (loss of basic rights) disappointing. You really have lost the plot and my support. Enjoy the ride to socialism….
“The Blue Wave fizzled due to progressives and the Red Wave fizzled because of Trump.” I disagree. The blue wave fizzled because of (a) centrist Democrats with no clear policy and (b) ads saying that Biden “cared” but with no clear policy. Apparently there was a red wave because Republican turnout surged. Finally, exit polling was a real eye-opener with even Fox viewers saying they wanted Medicare for all, a $15 minimum wage, and something done about climate change (all progressive agendas).
“I disagree. The blue wave fizzled because of (a) centrist Democrats with no clear policy and (b) ads saying that Biden “cared” but with no clear policy.”
This is wishful/magical thinking on your part. There were very defined policies outlined and they generated the large ‘red’ turnout to oppose them. If centrist policies (like taking care of Covid and removing the idiotic partisan tax/tariff regime) were the only thing we were talking about, the election would likely have gone the way the pollsters predicted.
The reason we are even arguing about this is the fact that there was such opposition to removing a deeply unpopular president. This isn’t because his base suddenly grew – it’s because the opposite side tried to lose the election with ‘scary’ propositions that got translated (granted – incorrectly) into ‘no oil’, ‘no guns’, ‘unfair (ha!, sure…) affirmative action’, ‘higher taxes’ and ‘eliminate the police’. Whether those represent the actual message or not, that is what many heard. Progressive policies are much more complicated and comprehensive than the sound bites I just wrote above. This is the failure – Progressives needed to get ahead of their messaging and they did not do that this election cycle.
The election is not close to being over as not a single electoral vote has been cast and none will until December. By then the massive voter fraud will reverse the unofficial EC vote tally to Trump who won the legal vote election.
I don’t think the election is over. Trump still has a chance. A small chance. Probably < 10%.
There’s cheating in every election, but I think it’s possible the democrats went way over the line in this one.
…all kind of songs pop up in my mind these days…..yesterday during Biden’s moving speech it was ‘Reunited’ (Peaches & Herb) and right now it is ‘Gridlock Holiday’ (10cc) …or was it Dreadlock…..well, never mind it will last 4 years, anyhow….
It may not be over. Seems Trump wants to raise doubt. Ben Ginsberg believes Trump wants to slow down the process , attempt to stop the electoral college from certifying and then calling on state legislatures to overturn cast votes. its extremely probable this fails but its not a 100% certainty and Trump doesn’t care what chaos he sows
I have no problem with and respect AOC… but this is a real whacko:
So a basically non-religious guy like Trump has what seems like a Pentecostal nutjob as a spiritual advisor. What a circus!
‘Demonic Confederacies’ most likely DID take place…..didn t come from hell though, from the postal offices rather….
It’s amazing to me what people worry about. A Pentecostal with no ability to really have much meaningful influence outside of her own religious circle versus an avowed socialist who is supporting an agenda of social and economic nonsense that is steadily getting more and more support among throngs of youth that have no idea what sort of crap they are signing up for..
Forgive student debt up to 10k per person. Bernie wants all but the $10k might just happen.
SURE……and free sex and drugs and rock&roll too…..Welcome in lala land !
LOL….I am just listing what Biden has promised
Mish writes: “Increasing deficits would have happened under Trump as well, but it will be more pronounced under Biden.”
So why do deficits matter? Deficit spending should be more pronounced right now to mitigate economic damage caused by virus. I agree a tax hike right now would be stupid and is not on the table. Deficit spending is good as long as it is sensible – e.g. not on border walls, war on drugs, military exess. Infrastructure, job creation and education spending are what is needed. Inflation won’t occur unless there is a significant pick-up in demand, which I don’t see happening for a long time.
Republicans want Biden to fail, so they can take back the white house. To do this, they will do everything possible to block spending, so that the economy and stock market tanks. They will justify this with fear-mongering about debt levels, just as they did with Obama. Voters fall into three camps:
Mish & others, really do you slam youngsters whenever they think out of the box and their idea is not perfectly formulated? AOC is just a youngster who has the right general idea that fossil fuels are on their death bed (conventional peaked ~ 2005 and extracting oil out of the source rock hasn’t shown itself to be all that profitable ~ – $240 billion of resources that could have gone to our children’s future). Yes it could be framed better and yes solar and wind by themselves are not going to replace oil, but they do extend its usefulness and when we finally admit Weinberg was right that scaling up reactors designed for submarines was a dumb idea, as he warned us in the 60s, and small MSRE are the way to go, micro grids will become even more viable then they already are. If the government is going to spend money it needs to do so on things that are going to be productive in the future and generate income so rather then spend that money on welfare, creating jobs and training for those people so they can have useful lives seems like the right way to go. And how does anyone expect US businesses to compete on a world market when they have to cover the ridiculous healthcare costs of their employees? Yes, I agree with you, the plan needs to be critiqued and should be carefully watched as it develops to encourage a more reasonable implementation. I just believe all the wisdom you have garnered could be disseminated in a way that would actually help her formulate a real strategy rather then default back to supporting the status quo, which you have to admit doesn’t look all that promising with the current crowd running the show.
I don’t slam AOS from having her views and representing her district but she goes way beyond that.
It’s fine to have views. It’s also great to have new ideas. Unfortunately, media pandering to the ‘youngsters’ aside, many of their ideas are not new. The reason people who have been around the block a few times decry youth is because they generally see that ‘the young’ are operating out of naive idealism rather than a practical sense of the world. Being overly idealistic blinds you to the potential pitfalls and corruptibility of the given proposals. All too often, the proposals of AOC and her ilk mean greater and greater consolidation of power over the individual. Add to that an ever increasing burden in the form of taxation. As it is the state has too much power over you. Why give it more?
Correction to Mish’s Fake News that America does not support progressives:
Voters are generally progressive/liberal/whatever you call it (but in a non ideological why so there are contradictions).
Witness the huge polling support for MedicareForAll and minimum wage increase, and imagine how much larger Biden’s and Dem victories would be if the campaigned on MedicareForAll, huge minimum wage increases, banning fracking, etc.
But voters don’t decide policy, money does. Every study confirms that the wealthy decide what public policy is, not voters or voting.
You missed a big one Mish. My biggest dream come true – Jared Kushner is out an his ass.
Still unbelievable to me that he ever had a seat at the table.
Has Maduro come out and said the real president is Sanders yet?
“I am confused…. 50-50 split in senate is a Win for the White House does not VP break ties?”
Yes but
Most likely way legislation would pass is bipartisan not a tie-break ram through
Clearly the GOP is the favorite for both GA Senate seats, but why would you say Ds have no chance? Which seat do you think is a lock for the GOP?
Warnock (D) took the plurality of votes in the multi-candidate race against Loeffler (R).
Ossoff (D) was within 2% of Perdue (R).
Clearly it’ll be a turnout issue… Both Rs helped by the fact that Trump isn’t on the ballot to drive D turnout, and that the typical GA voter will know that they’re deciding whether to give both Congress and the WH to the Dems. If Dems can figure out a way to get turnout, there’s no reason they can’t win. What if Trump vetoes the stimulus bill, keeping Perdue from running on that?
Apparently Democrats did have a chance in both of those seats.
I wish you had been right.
I think we’re going to see them stick tight on lots of 2021 votes: 50-50 with Kamala breaking the tie. I expect a huge amnesty and student loan forgiveness.
Not so sure about Green New Deal, Puerto Rico statehood and SCOTUS packing (would predict that those do NOT happen).
DC Statehood? Maybe.
I also expect Biden to throw a huge bone to the teacher’s unions, that there will be another COVID stimulus, that $2000 checks and PUA increase/extension will be the distraction in the next stimulus but the main point will be state pension bailouts.
Silver lining in the cloud is Dems will lose the Senate and maybe the House in 2022.
And Biden won’t last 4 years — we’ll have our first female President. Buttigieg gets the Veep nod.
I’d say “mark my words” but I’m not high on myself. I could be 100% wrong and hope that I’m at least 80% wrong.
Also: compared to Pelosi and Schumer, Biden will actually look good.
Trump did find ways to drive a high Democrat turnout. He didn’t need to be on the ballot. A combination of delaying the $600 checks, making the $600 checks seem like a bad thing instead of good, and refusing to concede made it especially important for Dems to vote.
I disagree…
I am confused…. 50-50 split in senate is a Win for the White House does not VP break ties?
No progressive shift on taxes.
Biden will raise taxes. I think that is the one thing he said he would do.
No AOC-fueled green shift except the minimum Biden can do by mandate.
Agree just because much makes no sense!
No Supreme Court packing.
I think you have to wait and see. Any big decision that go against JB’s buddies will put a lot of heat on the man.
No progressive Covid giveaway.
What is this ? Are we not going to have another bailout?
No total bailouts of corrupt states like Illinois.
JB will bailout any and all states that is what he has been doing for the last 47 years!
Ok maybe not a direct bailout but many of the policies has participated in for has led us to the condition we are today!
Trump is toast after January 20th. Multiple cases lined up in federal and state courts agaisnt Trump and Trump organization. No wonder Deutsche Bank wants to pull their loans and seize his properties.
Surprised none of you have commented on the poison pill hanging there. In order to get the tax cuts for corporations, it included only temp tax cuts for individuals so those tax hikes need to be addressed in the next year or so – Another little gift from our current leader. This gives both sides some leverage to bargain – interesting times.
Politically and economically it makes all the sense in the world for Biden to get in front of this and propose extending the individual cuts – no bargaining involved. Now is not the time to increase individual taxes. I have less sympatly for corporate rates, but thinkany increase should be directly tied to future improvement in jobs and economy.
pretty amazing how many nations are welcoming Biden. Japan, Continental Europe, China, Iran all view Biden as being positive. Losers will be Russia, Israel Saudi Arabia, U.K.
should have added south Korea to that list of winners
don’t forget North Korea and Taiwan
Why wouldn’t they?!!! We have plenty of 20 somethings in the service to spare!
China too will be a loser.
China will be a winner under Biden
Report to trump at the beginning of his term.
The United States Trade Representative, which led the seven-month investigation into China’s intellectual property theft and made recommendations to the Trump administration, found that “Chinese theft of American IP currently costs between $225 billion and $600 billion annually.”
Those numbers are in line with a 2017 report from the Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property.
Trump showed no sophistication with foreign leaders. Compliment him and he was putty
We left out the dreamers are back.
Wish the editing function was back. I’d prefer adding to previous comments
Biden will assuredly rejoin the Iran nuclear deal. It was one of the main foreign policy triumphs of the Obama-Biden administration. The Europeans will offer some face-saving “clarifications” and we’ll be back regardless of how big of a hissy fit Netanyahu throws.
As for Brexit, Boris has no more leverage. Biden won’t look the other way while the UK shreds the Good Friday agreement. It’ll be a hard border down the Irish sea and a unified Ireland sooner rather than later.
Biden rejoin Iran deal?
I wouldn’t be so sure.
Venezuela was targeted AFTER the Iran deal, to replace Iranian oil by US companies swooping in and ramping up production. At the time, it appeared oil supply would such that Iran oil would need to be replaced.
And it was Obama who labeled Venezuela a threat to National Security to pave the way for a bipartisan regime declaration of war to regime Venezuela.
Why does this mean?
Obama never intended his Iran deal to last, and in fact planned to terminate the deal. That’s why “snap back” sanctions were in the deal. After all, the one nation that never never never never ever honors with 100% certainty, is the US with it’s international agreements. Everyone who ins’t American knows that.
That’s why Russia calls America “Non agreement capable.”
By trusting in its scientists, Australia is down to zero new COVID-19 cases
‘Regardless of who you vote for, most Australians would agree their leaders have a real care for their constituents and a following of science’ https://nationalpost.com/news/world/by-trusting-in-their-scientists-australia-is-down-to-zero-new-covid-19-cases
Scientists?? Closed borders rather……a country like Australia can afford it !
Iran wants the U.S. back onto the accords. I’m in favor but I’d like to see Biden extract a concession. A pull back from their proxy wards in Syria , Lebanon and Yemen would be a good start. Maybe an agreement on their missiles. Biden could have some leverage.
Iran was invited by Syria to help defend it against US and Nazi Israel aggression aimed at mass murder of Muslims, so your suggestion is a bad idea. Better to terminate aid to Nazi Israel if your goal is peace.
Also if Iran is involved in defending Yemen against US genocide, we should support that.
Where are you getting your Fake News?
Then please think.
What are the odds of tax hikes?
What are the odds of more Covid stimulus.
It really gets tiring refuting blatant silliness when I laid it out in the article.
OK. What would Trump have done differently that would make deficits less pronounced than under Biden? Both will push for a stimulus, but Trump and the R’s would probably try to push more tax cuts through that would worsen the deficit. At least Biden won’t be cutting taxes for millionaires.
The odds of more COVID stimulus are now close to 100%
Biden has said his first agenda is Covid. He’s already building a task force to translate his agenda into an action plan
The people spoke. They wanted Republicans but not Donald Trump. This has to sting. Voters weren’t rejecting the Republican party but they did reject Donald Trump. Jim Clyburn lays the blame on “Defund the Police” and the progressives. Clyburn’s been around the block before. He knows the political landscape. AOC and the progressives had this idea that they would hijack the Biden presidency. Biden is not a progressive and left wing cabinet members will not get Senate confirmation. AOC is just throwing a tantrum.
We will see Democratic Centrist Biden administration. He’ll resort to executive orders to accomplish much of his agenda now that the Senate seems out of reach. Biden has laid out his agenda, Paris Accord, rejoin the WHO reinstate the environmental regulations Trump axed and while hasn’t said so I suspect a new look at Iran.
Boris Johnson’s goose is cooked. While Biden will continue to value a strong U.S.-U.K. military relationship Biden will look to economic ties with the Continent feeling the U.K. became less relevant after Brexit. Biden also will not look kindly if the U.K. doesn’t respect the Good Friday agreement.
AOC is a lot like Donald Trump. She tweets too much. Values social media more than rolling up her sleeves, writing , sponsoring and getting legislation passed. Seems to me she just tries to add her star power to other people’s work. She already signaled she’s getting bored with the House and wants to move to the Senate. I think that’s far fetched. NY is not ruled by a progressive base, Democrat yes, but not progressive.
I agree AOC is loathsome. She’s spent the last 24 hours attacking the coalition that came together to dump Trump. She’s a massive boon for the opposition. D’s in NY should redistrict her right out of congress.
she’s now attacking the Lincoln group, saying they should have run adds for the progressive wing of the party. Completely nuts. Lincoln group targets Republican voters that don’t like Trump because that’s a group they have insight on. The Lincoln Group are not progressives. They are Republicans who didn’t like Trump’s walking away from traditional Republican positions and for his breaking of political norms of decency.
The Ben Shapiro Neocon Rs will be taken down by the Nick Fuentes America Firsters in the 2022 primaries and general elections.
She’ll be running against the Bezos wing of the D party when she is of age.
“Voters weren’t rejecting the Republican party but they did reject Donald Trump.”
That’s how my ballot looked.
“Jim Clyburn lays the blame on “Defund the Police” and the progressives. “
And those are major reasons. The DNC’s accommodation of their left wing scares me. During Trump’s reign, I’ve gone from Lean-D to Lean-R, all while becoming more anti-Trump.
“By the time the president-elect takes office we’ll probably be at the apex of what we’re going through right now,”
@ScottGottliebMD
predicts about the current #COVID19 trajectory.
Adds, “This isn’t going to be over in 2021″ but predicts next year will be much better than 2020
Mish writes: “Increasing deficits would have happened under Trump as well, but it will be more pronounced under Biden.”
This conventional wisdom never fails to amuse me. Republicans since Reagan have run up huge deficits – they’ve always come down under Democratic presidents. Hell, Clinton almost balanced the budget in two terms – and then along came Shrub with his tax cuts and 4 trillion dollar Middle East adventures and we’ve been in a tailspin ever since.
Then please think.
What are the odds of tax hikes?
What are the odds of more Covid stimulus.
It really gets tiring refuting blatant silliness when I laid it out in the article.
Clinton held office during the aftermath of the U.S.S.R dissolution, a stock market bubble, the start of a housing bubble, and some peak earning years of the boomer generation leading to a substantial increase in the so-called social security trust fund. One can admire his timing, but the balanced budget during his tenure was a mirage.
“It’s time for legalized drugs. We don’t have them now primarily because of Trump.”
I HATE Fat Donnie from Queens®, but he is not the primary cause. It is chicken-shit politicians of both major parties. No one wants to be labeled “soft on drugs”.
Fear not Dave. Marijuana will be legal in all 50 states via referendum by 2030. Whether FedGov deals with that cognitve dissonance is up to them, but it will be a weird situation.
If all meth etc is legalized there wouldn’t be any more Breaking Bad or Ozark shows.
They could be period pieces, amirite? Like The Untouchables?
It’s not just for the optics, there is also a massive prison industry in this country. Leading the world in inmates by a wide margin is a feature, not a bug.
2-1/2 months of nothing but deterioration due to Trumps herd immunity pursuit–by the time inaguartion day happens, this country will be on its knees.
What happens after that entirely depends on the Georgia run-off.
GA runoff mostly irrelevant
Irrelevant, how?
A big difference between Mitch being the gate-keeper or not as to what passes through congress.
Considering MedicareForAll consistently polls huge support, it’s highly likely Biden & Dems would indeed ridden a Blue Wave for real. So Mish your statement is opposite of the facts. AOC is correct. Dems performed weak because they turned ever further to the right. “Nothing will fundamentally change” – Joe Biden a few weeks ago. Unless Mish is saying Trump was progressive and Biden embrassed Trump’s progressiveness, Mish isn’t making sense.
Mish I think your analysis is wrong. I identify 3 voting groups:
I think group 1 voted for Trump and Republicans in general
Group 2 voted against Trump (Biden, Libertarian, blank) but Republican for the rest
Group 3 mostly Democrat (President and down ballot)
There was massive voting of all groups. That helps Republican down votes and helps Biden
Now why do I think this? Look Florida easy win for the Republicans. Their fighting call was “Biden = Socialism”. That motivated groups 1 & 2.
Yet, the increase of the minimum wage to $15 was won (%61) of the votes. Now who can argue that setting a minimum wage is not Socialist?
Also you say the following: ” Gridlock they will get.” but later you say: “Deficits will soar” How can they soar if you have gridlock? Also do you really think that Americans know how budgets are created and approved? Americans in general blame the presidents when there are deficits so I doubt that they know in general
Deficits guaranteed to soar. Sheessh
That seals the fate but if you think clearly you can add to the list.
As far as your voting group analysis goes, Trump lost support relative to every other group: House, Senate, States,
It is illogical to conclude Trump himself is not the factor.
No I completely disagree. Now that Republicans have lost the Executive Branch they will seek to sabotage Democrats and will scream deficit and will suddenly become fiscal hawks. They will not want to give Biden many wins
This is it exactly! Republicans, when they control a house of Congress, are fiscal hawks. That is exactly why I am so pleased with this election result. When there is a Republican President, the Republicans run even bigger deficits than the Democrats.
AOC quit politics? What would she do? She’s throwing a fit. It ain’t happening.
Those 4 am voters in the liberal cities were so drunk that they voted for Republican Senators, Governors and Congressmen – good catch!
I don’t fit it into any of the above groups. I am socially moderate and fiscally moderate. I call myself the Alt-Middle. Everyone else is a clown or joker to me. I tend to think we are entering the era of moderately higher taxes and slower growth (once Covid is done). Deficits don’t matter because the Fed is monetizing the debt. They are turning around and being both the buyer of US debt and the buyer in the after market. Everything is merely a computer transaction and not real money. We are Japan for the foreseeable future. If the Fed balance sheet can add $5T why not $20T ? We will get inflation and have gotten price inflation during a recession because of it but asset values have also held up. The market has shown that as well imo. How long this can go on is anyone’s guess because they seem to be willing to not let pension funds and 401ks go bust in order to avoid what I call the larger crisis. Asset values have to stay up in order for people to retire and extract income from the market.
I think this is pretty much on the money.
Anyone posting any more bullshit from Distributed News or any other ridiculous conspiratorial source will be banned.
What is wrong with “distributed news”? https://www.sciencedaily.com/news/computers_math/distributed_computing/
and
and
Mish, what’s the deal with dissing AOC? I’ve purposely let the roof and siding on my house go to sh1t in anticipation of the Green New Deal where you and everyone else would chip in to cover my house with solar panels. Now what?
In New York she engaged in pathetic NIMBY politics and killed a deal with Amazon that would have brought many jobs to Queens and New York. Really can’t stand politicians who measure success on what they stop vs what they create.
We left out The Dreamers are back
That’s good for what I need, right?
Dear Mr. Demon
“Now what?”
Now nothing, you have voluntarily fast-tracked the socialist post-historic eutopian grail.
Your insistence on avoiding the carbon footprint an installation would have created is commendable.
Well done, Comrade.
We will send you a polythene bag on request to protect your copy of Marx from the rain (5 cents plus shipping).
AOC and the Next Deal team.
Thanks for the report…..my random-*ss thoughts below. Corrections welcomed
If the Democrats were to get both Georgia seats (admittedly unlikely) then they’d have VP Harris to break a tie and give the Dems a de facto majority in the Senate…that might temper some of your expectations.
AOC won’t quit. That would be too much luck to ask for……And Ilhan Omar won with 57% of the vote in her district…That part of the party is here to stay…..Biden won’t cater to them…other than probably giving women and minorities most of the cabinet positions.
The dollar will stay stubbornly stronger than it deserves. Dollar milkshake theory.
Gold could make a good run…..but central banks have an interest in it not going wild…..and they have the means, still, to do something about it, imho.
Stocks will go up as long as the Fed supports that, I hope. If they lose control a whole lot of people will get killed. Likewise RE in growth areas.
Many small bits of good news on COVID, like the preventive nasal spray. Hope that works…but it’s still months….probably a year or more away. No vaccine before the spring….best case. Will we get one? I’d say it’s unlikely, in spite of all the money gifted to Big Pharma. But maybe…if we’re lucky.
We could be hit really hard before the winter is over. Lockdowns will have to happen if enough people are sick and dying. Hopefully we won’t lock down…..were in deep enough doo-doo as it is, economically speaking.
It could be that we won’t see 2019 levels of economic health for a long time….and it will hurt some other countries worse than us.
“Thought decision was electoral college, early December, press not mentioned in Constitution”
So why the flying F did Trump twice proclaim he won big?
Because he’s often disconnected from reality. He lies a lot, sure, and he speaks learnedly about things he doesn’t understand. These claims, however, are trump bullshit of the third form. The Walter Mitty trump. He can’t distinguish dreams, imagination, or television from reality, and when television turns against him, he believes the dreams.
You would tie yourself in knots by using the arguments of the person whose arguments you criticise.
i.e. If Trump boasts so can you…but it is not your boasting because it’s Trump who boasts ?
Technically and clearly the OP is right and the rest is fancy, even Trump steers that course in reality, much as some prefer not to share it – I guess you can blame that on him also somehow if so inclined, but it does not change a fact.
Because that’s Trump, the showman and con artist. He knows how to push peoples’ buttons.
In time Biden will regret winning as would Trump.
There is no gracious way out of this mess that is likely to become much worse before improving. Only unity of purpose will speed recovery.
but… mah FREEDUMBS!
Not according to Fox News. Heard on “The Five” that everything is so awesome because of Trump, that Biden could just lounge back and be fed grapes for the next 4 years.
This is not a joke.
The Republicans are going to invalidate the election and send their hand picked electors. Get ready for another four years of Trump. The US is a white supremacist nation and nothing has changed that fact.
I’m pleased with gridlock as the election outcome. Both parties have been digging the country into a deep hole, so gridlock takes away the shovel until centrists are elected.
Mish is the only other person I am aware of that has stated that blockades are acts of war, other than me and the Geneva Convention.
Embargoes, but yes!
It’s been mentioned before by several libertarians. Justin Raimondo, Ron Paul, and others.
Maybe he could overhaul the election process so there isn’t another farce like this one.
I COULD NOT AGREE MORE!
The founders were so freaking concerned that a would be corrupt KING would get the presidency they made rules about that with checks and balances, but they really failed us there, we have so many checks and balances that gridlock is assured. And as far as corruption goes they seem to have never heard of partisans, or accomplaces in the congress.
They seemed to want democracy but they also wanted to layer that power against the unwashed uneducated mobs, the result is we have about the least democracy in the developed world. And then there was the electoral college that was a compromise to get the southern slave colonies to join the USA.
They also could not concieve of instant communications, computers, the net, nor a modern technological world power with a third of a billion people. They were rural and had two adversaries, England and Indians.
Even the bill of rights is not up to the job of America in 2021.
We have not totally lost faith in our government and systems, but it is certainly threadbare.
In relatively mercenary terms we have a really good thing here in the US. Trump might have been a joke for this whole planet for four years, but we are still the envy of the world, but with some really big problems. It is our home, you are my family even if we do not speak to each other anymore.
We all want democracy and the voice of the people heard. That is very clear from this election. And it seems that the voice of the people is mostly (majority) rational. Had we a one man one vote system nationwide for nationwide office we never would have had to suffer Trump.
I also did a little math. Population at the first us census was, August 2, 1790. 3,929,214 living here. Funny though they did not accuse people of being raapists, drug dealers, and murderers.
Congress assigned responsibility for the 1790 census to the marshals of United States judicial districts under an act which, with minor modifications and extensions, governed census taking until the 1840 census. “The law required that every household be visited, that completed census schedules be posted in ‘two of the most public places within [each jurisdiction], there to remain for the inspection of all concerned…’ and that ‘the aggregate amount of each description of persons’ for every district be transmitted to the president.”[2]
Gosh without the internet how did the Nazis accuse marshals of the United States of being deep state?
Census data included the name of the head of the family and categorized inhabitants as follows: free white males at least 16 years of age (to assess the country’s industrial and military potential), free white males under 16 years of age, free white females, all other free persons (reported by sex and color), and enslaved people.[6] Under the direction of the current Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson, marshals collected data from all thirteen states (Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia), and from the Southwest Territory.[2] The census was not conducted in Vermont until 1791, after that state’s admission to the Union as the 14th state on March 4 of that year. (From 1777 until early 1791, and hence during all of 1790, Vermont was a de facto independent country whose government took the position that Vermont was not then a part of the United States.)
The results of that census is here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1790_United_States_Census#:~:text=It%20recorded%20the%20population%20of,was%20enumerated%20to%20be%203%2C929%2C214.
It is both quaint and instructive about the difference between the US of our founding faters and the US today. Those that cling to “originalism” really should look at it. Those that think we can ever go back to that time are flat out stupid on the basest level imaginable.
Here is a list of the cities where the metro population is over the 1790 census (minus slaves):
New York, Chicago, LA, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Phoenix, Boston, San Francisco, Riverside/San Bernadino (in my opinion part of LA since I was stationed there for 4 years) Detroit, Seattle, Minneapolis, San Diego, Tampa, and Denver at just under 3 millionbut only because they count metro areas differently there, St. Louis, Baltimore and last Charlotte.
All of those cities have more population than the entire 13 colonies at the first census less slaves.
The criteria to vote was that you were a free male over 16 that was a land owner current on your taxes. In some places they required you to be white. In Georgia more than 35% of the population were slaves. Those southern colonies could not enter the union when more than a third of the population was balck slave, more than half the population was female, close to a third was under 16 or not land owners. And similar to third parties now a fraction were not paid up on taxes.
There were a total of just under 800,000 thousand eligible voters. Shall I list the counties that now have more than 800,000? I will not because there are 79.
The point is that what governed American lives when Washington and Jefferson and all our founders were alive is just not the nation we have to live in.
We have counties bigger than the USA of that time. There are over 11 million people living in LA county alone, glommed onto another almost 4 million in Orange county, and Riverside san Bernadino County make another 2.6 million, for a total poulation of 17.6 million and even that is conservative because it does not include another 10% or so that are not legal residents. And even that is an absurd undercount because LA sits right on top of San Diego county with at least another 4 million people. NOT COUNTING people afraid to answer the census.
That is over 25 million people in the cities of just southern California.
Yet Indiana and Alaska, and the Dakotas, and Wyoming have more power than all those counties, they would make up a neighborhood in LA combined.
So yeah, the so called democracy has to change, it will change or it will end.
Thought decision was electoral college, early December, press not mentioned in Constitution
Excellent point. So why the flying F did Trump twice proclaim he won big?
Stupid point. The press was not really proclaiming Biden the winner although I can see how it seems they did. This was all math and statistics driven. The votes got to the point where the answer was clear. Nate Silver was on ABC and was asked a day earlier why Biden wasn’t considered the winner when it already seemed obvious. He responded as far as he was concerned Biden already won and then said everyone can now go home. It was quite humorous.
It may not be official but it is rather incontrovertible. And I suspect when all is said and done Biden will have 306 electoral votes the same as Trump did in 2016. Sure the results must be certified but recounts don’t change results by more than a few doze or so, not thousands. Trump can contest but he has no proof as Christie said. It will be very clear shortly he’s simply wasting everyone’s time. If it was anyone else they would have conceded.
Trump is either afraid of the litigation or suddenly realizes he may no longer be relevant.
Would not surprise me if the talk of court packing, packing the court and Bernie’s universal health care along with defunding the police is what cost Democrats house and senate seats. They overplayed their hand.