The bond market again shows serious inflation concerns. 
Ascending Triangle Formation
StockCharts: An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern characterized by a flat, horizontal resistance line connecting swing highs and a rising, diagonal trendline connecting higher lows. It signals increasing buying pressure and potential accumulation, with a high probability (often ~63% or more) of an upside breakout, especially when forming during an established uptrend.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout.
Ascending triangle patterns are generally reliable indicators of a bullish trend, especially when formed in an ongoing uptrend and confirmed with high trading volume. However, like all trading patterns, they’re not foolproof and should be used alongside other technical analysis tools for best results.
That’s the technical picture. What’s the fundamental picture?
Fundamental Picture
- More Near-Term Inflation – Higher gasoline, food, diesel, fertilizer etc. prices
- More Military Spending – Certain
- Bigger Deficit Spending – Certain
- The next few month-over-month and year-over year CPI and PCE reports are certain to be a disaster.
- Labor Markets – Weakening
- Tariff – Uncertainty – Trump seeks ways to avoid the recent Supreme Court Decision
- War – Uncertainty but inflationary for as long as it lasts
- Consumers opinions definitely souring over war and the economy
- Rate cuts priced out
Questions of the Day
Q: Are the CPI and PCE inflation reports already priced in?
A: I don’t know and nobody else does either. But it seems unlikely at the moment.
Q: Is it possible labor market weakness and demand destruction in point 5 enough to overcome points 1-4?
A: It’s possible, but that also seems unlikely at the moment. War added a new wrinkle to the question.
I had already been wrestling with with technical picture since January. The war in Iran will boost points 1-3.
The next few year-over-year inflation reports were already certain to be bad. Month-over-month war-related issues will make matter much worse.
The question is no longer how bad the next few inflation reports will be, but whether of not the bond market ignores it.
We also do not know when the war in Iran will be over or how much more energy infrastructure is blown to smithereens before that happens.
Related Posts
January 14, 2026: The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures
The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.
January 21, 2026: Expect a Big Divergence This Year Between CPI and PCE Inflation
Rent and Healthcare go different ways in 2026. Plus there are huge timing issues.
February 2, 2026: The Fed Has Two Huge Problems Starting Now, Acyclical Inflation and Jobs
The Fed is not in a good spot.
March 11, 2026: Year-Over-Year CPI Inflation Will Worsen for at Least Three Months
This is an easy forecast. And it does not even include gasoline prices.
March 12, 2026: Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
A Bloomberg article comments on something I have been discussing for months.
Despite those posts, it is yet to be seen if long bond yields break out to the upside.
Technically, that would be the expectation. But it has not happened yet, and perhaps it won’t.
Regardless, Trump campaigned on a message to bring down inflation. That is a certain failure.
The 2 year US bond yield has a great “wedge” and break out.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24UST2Y
It’s a hint of what the 10 and 30 year bond yields are going to do near term.
Stagflation seems to be the base case. The possible offsetting event would be an AI ‘crash’ which would reverse a lot of the inflation caused in that area.
The Fed has spent 3+ decades painting itself into this tiny corner.
There is no way out that is not extremely “messy”.
Easing Capital, Reviving Risk: The Quiet Return of Too Big to Fail
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/easing-capital-reviving-risk-the-quiet-return-of-too-big-to-fail
The interest cost of US debt is going up. That is the bottom line Mr. Bond.
With the media consolidation under the plutocrats, your only information you will get on the dismal prospects for the littles is with the evidence of your bank/wallet balance.
It’s all happy BS right now…”we’re winning” with the all-important subtext that when the shooting stops everything will go back to normal within weeks.
Not even close to recognizing the damage done to the economy of the world, the damage to the power perception of the US via the world, and the final recognition that the US is being run by a malignant and incompetent force
We are in a different world now
“plutocrats”
lolz
I prefer the phrase “the Epstein class”
We are in a different world now and none of our allies have stepped up to try to force the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. One would think that the Saudis would, at a minimum. Clearly the US has lost standing under Trumps constant threats and tariffs.
That said, I do not see any chance that this five day peace negotiation will go anywhere. The war will continue. No one did anything about Gaza, no one is doing anything about Lebanon, and the US and Israel are likely to continue bombing Iran and all regional dissenters until they kill them all or run out of our money.
Key to all of this is that America is funding this war… With moar and moar debt…
Sadly, Trumps sycophants see the only way for ordinary Americans to be made financially whole is to nationalize Irans oil as an asset of the US Treasury and all revenues and profits, for all time, go to the American people.
Morally? This war is wrong on so many levels. There is no way to recover the high ground we once represented.
Agreed. Just like all Iraqi oil revenues run thru the New York Federal Reserve Bank first.
What allies would those be? Turkey? Russia? Argentina?
Another factor…At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted following major Ukrainian drone attacks overnight at the Ust-Luga oil export terminal on the Baltic Sea.
It is amazing how quiet the MSM has become on topics other than Trump’s war. Almost nothing on anything else important. Thanks for noting the factor.
Including the genocide and annexation of southern Lebanon by Israel.
=ng how quiet the MSM has become on topics other than Tr
case it is BS.. propaganda by uk404
FOR EXAMPLE. YOU DONT READ much in western mass media
that half of buildings in kiev are w.out heating
and most of people shit in kitties boxes, do you?
That’s because you are repeating Russian propaganda.
You really get fired up on this subject.
I hope the Iran war is over a lot quicker than the “Special Military Operation” Russia is trying.
At this rate, we’ll all be in little jars on our kids’ shelves before Russia takes over Ukraine.
= least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted following
blah blah blah!!
there were some pixs of Ust-Luga oil export! couple round storage were under fire!
typical ukraine bs! they have been hitting for last 2-3 years
nothing changed !
i heard about 20 or 30 % destroyed of all russian oil-gas capacity in 2025!
it is all BS!
==========
only uneducated moron from moms basement would think it is possible to destroy/ damage by 10-20 kg of explosives something that is size of may many hectares, and BUILT TO WITHSTAND FIRE AND HEAT!!!
IT IS OIL AND gas storage , mor11on!!
=========
on other hand there were recent video how russian hit buildings in western urkaine!
it was hilarious!
alx
Well, you certainly come across as an objective, thoughtful and credible poster. /sarc
Russia invaded Ukraine, is throwing everything it has at it and cannot show anything for its trouble but a million+ dead and injured, a bankrupt country and a population that has learned not to be productive or innovative because the government will rob them.
All because putin doesnt listen to people and doesnt understand history.
I think you need to go volunteer for Russia’s army!
You seem like a perfect fit for them.
Not as hilarious as the Wagner mutiny. Now that WAS funny.
The only logical “off ramp” available to Trump that I’ve heard was expounded here: https://www.youtube.com/live/5pUOoaLSsZ8?si=4g8NFg4gUfD8sWpa&t=2691
The odds of Trump forcing that on Israel are beyond remote, but it’s probably the only way that he might be able to salvage something of his presidency.
I agree.
It is the only way for the US to gain Iran’s trust, which is necessary in negotiation.
The operative word is stagflation
Well just wait till Iran starts buying $99k hypersonic missiles. Did I say $99k, well that’s a limited time offer so hurry up and stock up now because this amazing deal won’t last! Buy 10 hypersonics and get a free red hat (from China).
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/on-sale-now-china-is-mass-producing
“War – Uncertainty but inflationary for as long as it lasts”
Probably much longer via replacing equipment and munitions with deficit spending long after the war ends, and that needs to be combined with Ukraine expenses.
What a fiscal mess we have.
Yesterdays Treasury auction had to be extended through today because there were not enough bidders.
With yields heading higher in response to US debt going parabolic and a debt to GDP approaching the levels of Greece when it was declared insolvent, you have the recipe for higher interest rates.
Tying up money in long dated treasuries at todays low rates is not something buyers seem attracted to.
Buy/sell calls/puts on TLT is ringing the cash register all day long.
Flight to safety (on a relative basis)
With so many of the top ayatoilets already flushed, the lower IRG commanders and warlords are already warring on each other for power. This is much more in the natural state and spirit of Islam. Trump is right about this as always. Some special tactical ops can help this along, but it will take some time and patience to let them kill each other off.
Sure thing,Iran wants unconditional surrender from the U.s and they will get that there is no other option….
“Trump is right about this as always”
Gosh are you a MAGA lunatic.
He is a liar, thief, pedophile protector, rapist who sells pardons to the highest bidder, tries to steal elections, and starts stupid wars at the request of Israel.
Bigot
time, patience, world wide economic costs, 200 billion more and counting in military expenditures and a bunch of dead Americans.
just let it ride guys, Trump has this. hes right as always.
it was over in the 1st hour according to Trump, so Trump appears to be wrong about that.
“the lower IRG commanders and warlords are already warring on each other for power”
According to whom? The same sources that said Iran was out of missiles two weeks ago?
Black crows over Israel tell a different story.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15677651/crows-swarm-tel-aviv-iran-conflict.html
Tipping your MAGA cult TWS hat to us with your “Trump is right about this as always” thanks for reminding us to ignore your blather.
Was Trump right when he said we don’t need anyone’s help in the war or the Strait of Hormuz? Was he ALSO right when he demanded our allies help us open the Strait? Why does he need so much more money to fight a war he declared is OVER as recently as yesterday Tues Mar 24?
=f the top ayatoilets already flushed, the
look, moron from moms basement in Wisconsin re-tell us stories from fox?
get lost !
Speaking of toilets, how are the toilets on the USS Ford? Yeah not so good. And now it will need 12-14 months of maintenance and repairs due to the toilets, fire and extended deployment due to Trump’s hasty war of choice.
I believe the Iranians are going to try to keep trapping trump until they are certain he loses the midterms and they can negotiate with a weak president. The “back to normal time” keeps stretching but it seems the consensus is 3-4 months currently (not saying that right) so this is going to go on for a while longer and yields will definitely break out until they are sure it affects the Nov elections. Of course thats assuming they can hold out, which i believe they can
The old normal is not coming back.
Unfortunately, I have no doubt that Iran can outlast us in this war. When our pew-pews cost 1000×, we can not survive
Also, it’s on the other side of the world (logistics) and it’s existential for them and probably not for us – at least yet.
Well perhaps they want to negotiate with a sane president?
The laugh is that the GOP is saying it doesn’t make sense to be at war and not be funding the DHS. Ya correct, so why did Trump start a war when he knew DHS was not being funded?
There was no emergency, why do it on February 28th 2026 while DHS was unfunded?
He has simply made a bad situation into a disaster.
I guess his real motivation worked, I haven’t heard much about the Epstein files lately.
A weak president? What a joke. No one is weaker than the Chief Pedophile of the United States. The Mossad has the Epstein videos so he has to do whatever they want. If you wanted to destroy this country, the Chief Pedophile is your man. Everything he does is destructive. Eventually the US will have as many friends as North Korea. Even Canada is at “war” with us!
There is no weaker negotiator than Trump. He has gotten nothing for all his bluster from the world. China, Israël and Russia are laughing their asses off. Midterms will be a bloodbath because trump got nothing positive done for non- billionaires.
All this “winning” is giving me a headache….