How Does Trump Compare to Biden in wage growth?
Bessent’s September 23 Claim
“Unlike under the Biden administration, where we had negative wage growth, we are seeing substantial wage growth here. That wage growth is going to continue.”
That’s a lie.
Biden Years
- Real Personal Income: 18,677 to 20,338. Plus 1,661 up 8.9 percent
- Real PI Excluding Transfers: 16,398 to 17,868. Plus 1,470 up 9.0 percent
- Real Disposable Personal Income: 15,090 to 16,607. Plus 1,517 up 10.1 percent
Trump Years
- Real Personal Income: 20,388 to 20,595. Plus 207 up 1.0 percent
- Real PI Excluding Transfers: 17,890 to 18,123. Plus 223 up 1.3 percent
- Real Disposable Personal Income: 16,635 to 16,615. Minus 20 down 0.1 percent
Real Income Notes
- Real means adjusted for inflation
- Transfers are government payments for which no current services are performed. Example include Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and food stamps now called SNAP.
- Disposable means after taxes
Biden had four full years. Trump as 19 months,
Through August 2026, real disposable personal income under Trump is negative.
An Idiot’s Question
You are missing a highly unpopular war, idiotic tariffs, ridiculous deportation policies, Epstein, soaring diesel prices, and angry farmers.
And the idea that real incomes are at record highs is a ridiculous lie.
Three Rounds of Highly Inflationary Stimulus
I was against the second two free money handouts. Two are changed to Trump because as president, he signed those bills.
He wanted a bigger second stimulus than he got.
The third was ludicrous. And we paid a very inflationary price.
Trump’s $5,000 Free Money Proposal
Trump recently proposed sending $5,000 rebate checks to all adult citizens.
The cost would be roughly $1.3 trillion and would have been highly inflationary, but the vote-buying idea was dead on arrival.
It was contingent on Republicans retaining Congress which is not going to happen,
I Am the House
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Stop pretending. Abandon ship.
September 25, 2026: Texas Cattle Assn. Complains of ICE, Iowa Farmers Union Endorses Democrats
“ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect.”
And on what network did Piss-ant say this? Fox where you see election deniers and liars of every size and shape. Fox advertisers should know that they are alienating over 50% of Americans to their products by calling non-RAPEublicans communists and criminals.
Fuck FOX!
It’s doubtful that any of those real wage statistics are valid. BLS has created dumbed down models for most of their inflation statistics.
Walmart is preparing for our hyper-inflationary future with digital price tags. Now you’ll have to run to the register before the price changes!
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-09-28/as-walmart-expands-digital-shelf-labels-ceo-says-prices-wont-depend-on-who-you-are
Atlanta Fed 3Q GDP Now – 5.0%
New York Fed 3Q GDP – 2.3%
St Louis Fed 3Q GDP – 3.24%
1st half of 2026 – 2.3%
Without AI investment – <1%
I can not believe we’re somehow doing the dot com bubble twice in 25 years.
This one is somehow the dot com and the housing bubble combined via the construction industry
meanwhile It’s a good day to be an oligarch. CNN, CBS, HBO, Paramount, Warner Brothers, and a host of other properties will now be under the control of Larry Ellison, who also owns Oracle and TikTok.
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/happy-oligarch-day-as-trump-aligned
The solution to wage inequality and super wealth of oligarchs is complicated but doable. First establish and enforce a maximum wage. One way to maximize wages would be to tie the maximum wage to the lowest paid worker, say 20 times the lowest. Limiting personal wealth would be another way to create equality, who needs more than $100M personal wealth? Money equals power why should we allow these oligarchs like Ellison and Musk to have the nearly unlimited power they currently weld?
Off topic.
Atlantic just ran an article titled ‘How Biden Averted a War With Iran,’ citing a book just released, by Brett McGurk, who was Biden’s National Security Council Coordinator. A 2024 phone call between Biden and Bibi is cited: “Biden jumped in,” McGurk wrote. “’Bibi, man, what the f*ck are you doing?’ He gripped the phone tight. ‘You think I’m Santa Claus? No Santa in Israel, pal.’ When Netanyahu asked what he meant, Biden said he could cut off military aid to Israel with the snap of a finger, leaving Israel on its own.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/09/israel-biden-gaza-hamas-netanyahu/688750/
Yes, I hear the cynics already, but I’m just adding this to the mix. This might at least give some observers across the globe pause to imagine the USA hasn’t irrevocably lost its mind. Which still leaves the world in any event in the shadow of year-to-year USA political risk.
trump also raised the m1 money supply from 4 t to 16 t in may of 2020 which in my mind caused the inflation that we are still dealing with there is always a delay between cause and effect
Besssant is clueless. I’m seeing prices surge 10-20% for common items I buy. There are shortages in many household goods. Look with your eyes, ignore people like Bessant. The bond market is calling his bluff.
Market today is being patient as it waits for more stimulus. In the past yield surges like today would have tanked the markets, but traders have full confidence in Trump to deliver magical outcomes.
Real yields surging and dollar rising with oil. Analysts continue to spew nonsense about yields not mattering any more.
It’s different this time!
How are “Real yields surging” if you’re seeing prices surge 10-20%? Real = after inflation.
So were your first statements hyperbole?
I’m not even bothering to check. Your point (even is true??) is a non-sequetor. For one a yield change is a change from it’s base yield price. Which, can seem off Vs it’s COUPON. But keep in mind the price change is the price change to maturity. (Or, in practive YTC if less.) That can easily outjack “Current Yield” (which has not price chnge amortization).
There’s more, but that’s a start on the topic. (YTM, YTC and price change VS coupon, and Current Yield vs YTM, AND YTC.) I lived in bond industry for decades. The comps and pricings are not a cakewalk.
Pepsi, who just relented and lowered prices a touch from last 1-3 yr hikes announced today they are RAISING PRICES ACROSS THE BOARD (Food and drinks) over next 1-3 months.
WON-DER-FRIGGIN-FULL!
Stop buying that unhealthy poisonous shit.. I am 73 and had my like sugary, fizzy drink at age 10.
Perhaps they are speaking in Orwellian terms
More chocolate for everyone! Double plus good!
It’s good to see that transfer payments have been falling recently. We need to move closer to free market capitalism and away from the current fake economy. The fiscal deficit of 6% needs to be cut at least in half over the next two years, and 10-yr Treasuries need to yield over 6% until that happens. It’s as simple as that.
Transfer payments to the ultra wealthy, however have skyrocketed. Elon is the ultimate welfare queen.
Might happen if Mish were in charge. 😀
yes lets stop corporate welfare and stop all lobbyist and go back to a progressive tax like when america was actually great only without the racism and sexism
Most people don’t know you are telling it like it used to be ( when compared to now), rather than being sarcastic. This was the reality in the USA pre-1982. And PS, sexism and rascism problems had been mostly addressed by 1982, it just took some time for the changes to diffuse through society after the ship was righted.
Humm stretched thin russia army is. Or way to move blame from putin.
In Trump’s defense, the real wage growth under Biden happened primarily because as he reopened the economy after Trump’s disastrous COVID policies, the labor shortage jacked up wages.
It is difficult to compare Trump’s second term to Biden’s term for 2 reasons. First is that COVID did warp everything as you note, which makes Biden’s first couple of years hard to interpret. In this case, we could look at Biden’s last two years (Jan 2023 to Dec 2024) and compare them to Trump so far. I think this would still show Biden more favorable than Trump. Second though is that there is always a lag between a new administration and policy affects on the economy. So it might actually be more apropriate to count Jan 2023 to Mar 2025 or even May 2025 as the “Biden” period, with the Trump period starting after that. That shifts the favor further in Biden’s direction. Bottom line: it is not just an effect of the COVID era.The numbers shift depending on how you choose to slice the time period, but Trump never comes out ahead.
There should be a law against unelected officials lying. I think it is an act of treason and it should be dealt with accordingly. As minimum automatic firing and depending on the lie jail time.
They should not be able to spew such garbage to a totally under educated society and go unpunished. We hold private enterprise to account for false advertising why not bureaucrats?
But you can see how desperate the administration is in telling lies that are so easily uncovered as total BS.
Yes. People in positions of power telling lies endangers us all.
Why should elected officials get a pass
Government has a monopoly of force and a monopoly of fraud. Stopping officials from lying simply means that they aren’t officials any more. Someone else would take charge and orchestrate the deception.
One of the interesting things you notice after you realize that government has a monopoly on the use of fraud as well as a monopoly on the use of force, is that in a settled society, it actually becomes degrading for officials to tell the truth, except in the furtherance of a greater deception. It is a crime for a subject to lie to the government. It is the government’s right to lie to the subject. This means that the further up the tree you are, the fewer people you have to tell the truth to, and the more people you are entitled to lie to. So you feel as if you are being dragged down if you find yourself telling the truth to the public.
The down votes are from the brain dead. The education system is a branch of government and the lies trickle down. The brain dead cannot think so they repeat what they’ve been told. These people vote.
There’s none so blind as he he who will not see.
Thanks for the analysis, Mish. It helps to be able to compare the real economic impact of Presidential terms – even if Trump’s second term is not over yet.
But this post seems to read differently than some of your other ones. Real personal income was up a lot under Biden, and up a little under Trump 2. And real = adjusted for inflation – as you note.
So how does this square with some of your previous posts about people – and their spending – being worse off due to inflation? If real PI is increasing, then people can afford more than before – on average.
> Real Disposable Personal Income: 16,635 to 16,615. Minus 20 down 0.1 percent
Down means less.
I know – you like to have an opinion on every post so sometimes don’t read closely. It’s a big issue for teenagers as well – after COVID.
But I posted about Personal income. You brought in DPI.
But Mish posted about these same trends I’m questioning during the 10% real personal income increases under Biden so your off-tangent ‘correction’ is still off
Yes and it’s being cancelled out. How are you on a blog like this but unable to understand that? Mish goes as far as noting that disposable means after taxes. That means the money you have that’s not being swallowed up is going down.
I understand the difference. And I also understand you regularly divert on this blog when your rants are questioned.
Real DPI was up under considerably under Biden. I’m asking Mish if people on average were considerably better off during these these time periods when both real PI and real DPI were up (after inflation and taxes)?
Maybe you don’t understand the question (because it’s not ‘cancelled out’ during all the periods Mish references abov)? That’s OK. But I imagine the answer would be eye-opening for many readers here
You’re asking a stupid question is what you’re doing. Mish can’t magically answer if people were “considerably better off during these periods”, but we can go look at consumer sentiment. From what I see of that, consumers were far happier with their situation after 2022 and it began to drop right around tariffs being applied under Trump.
Let me put this in very simple words: Any gains in real PI aren’t translating to DPI (the d is for disposable) which is why DPI is decreasing. It didn’t matter if real PI increases an anemic one percent when people’s disposable income, the kind they actually get to spend after taxes, is decreasing. This means consumers overall have less money in their pockets.
And furthermore even if what was in the actual payroll you get after taxes did increase one percent (which it has not), that’s a huge failing in comparison to 10.1 percent under Biden. So logic follows that people would still perceive less money in their pockets because there’s less growth of their wages compared to Biden.
Voters seem to agree that the Biden whataboutism is getting awfully tired.
I’d just like to circle back and say it’s hilarious to hear and old man ranting about how kids today can’t read and don’t know the price of bread before repeatedly being unable to figure out what the D in DPI means.
Any increase in PI is being cancelled out by steadily rising grocery, fuel and insurance costs.
When I was working, my annual raise basically covered the rise in health insurance premium.
At best, the middle class is (maybe) breaking even.
You mean like this…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-diesel-prices-squeeze-schools-farms/
One Georgia food bank said it will spend an extra $100,000 this year on diesel, money that otherwise would have gone to feed families.
“That would actually translate to about 122,000 meals that we would be able to provide if we didn’t have to spend that on unexpected diesel fuel prices,” Kenneth Hill, the supply chain officer for the Atlanta Community Food Bank, told CBS News Atlanta.
Maybe you didn’t read Mish’s post well either (like Creamer) or don’t understand economics jargon.
Real PI increased which means after inflation (which both Mish and I mention). That 9% increase under Biden and 1% increase under Trump 2 was an increase after people paid the higher goods/services prices you mention here
The answer to most of those items in the list is simple: 80% of the wealth (outcomes) is controlled by 20% of the people. That’s why Trump is at record lows.
No one ever talks about the distribution of record high anything, its assumed a rising tide lifts all boats but a rising tide only lifts 20% of the boats, the ones closest to the money shore, the 80% drowning in the sea don’t notice the tide at all.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP, and democrats will find a way to make things even worse.™
My thoughts exactly. Notice the discussion is always in the aggregate, never broken down by income, region or any other variables.
My oldest son and his spouse are both high-school teachers in Florida. Their combined incomes is $90k. They have a mortgage, 1 car payment, 1 old car that needs to be replaced, a 12 year old kid, $4k homeowner’s insurance, $500/month for health insurance, $2500/year for state pension, and I just gave them a $10k check to replace their AC. They struggle and income-wise, they’re not doing terribly.
My youngest son and his spouse drag in $1.1 million a year as MDs in Boston. The bifurcation of income and outlooks in this country is crazy, and folks who don’t get that are destined to be very confused in the next election.
These are good anecdotes, but there is actual nationwide data out there to test your hypothesis.
You could look at Table 6: Selected Measures of Household Income Dispersion within https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-inequality.html which measures income disparity in the US for the last 60 years.
The ratio between the income of median HH and that of the lowest 10% has not changed significantly in over 50 years. Even the ratio of the income of the top 10% (90th percentile) compared to the lowest 10% has been essentially the same for the last 15+ years.
Of course, individual people’s circumstances are all different, but you could choose to check statistics before making blanket statements for all US citizens
Those numbers leave out essentials for the middle 80%: mortgage payments, insurance of all types, automobiles, energy and the other essentials as a percentage of disposable income. My assertion here is that your not comparing apples to apples over time when you are only looking at gross income.
Sorry, Jon, but you posted “Notice the discussion is always in the aggregate, never broken down by income, region or any other variables.” I responded with actual data that shows people do study the differences by income and that this rich/poor differential you were complaining about is not different from historical US standards (at least in income).
Now you want to discuss “your not comparing apples to apples over time when you are only looking at gross income.” You should take that up with Mish. He posted graphs above showing real personal income and real disposable personal income is higher since 2018 (at least thru Biden’s term). Real means the gross income after including price increases, including for the items you mention above.
The data shows your assertions aren’t correct here.
I saw a YouTube where a bartender making $57k/yr was offered a teaching job at $37k, it made no sense for her to take the teaching job when she’s making more money as a bartender.
There is a lot of chatter on the net about increasing payroll taxes to fix social security shortfalls. And God only knows what the democratic socialists have planned. Yeah, no thanks. I’m out.
By the way, my brother was a teacher then couldn’t do it anymore, He quit and planning on moving to Mexico to retire this year. I told him to check out where I am now before he makes any hard commitments.
There were commenters saying “everyone’s leaving blue cities and states” for a while but the reality is people are leaving the USA.
Of course, it’s not for everybody. This family couldn’t seem to let go of the consumerism lifestyle so they failed at exiting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K69Z53DNgUY
They’re leaving in “…an ambulance…or a hearst (sic)”
I have children and grandchildren and we are all very close. Our relationships give me far more pleasure than having financial comfort (which I do). I have travelled extensively and would love to live in quite a few other places, but we would all have to leave together. And that is unlikely.
If no one is ever talking about wealth inequality, then how come so many commenters here are upset about the Democratic Socialists being elected across the country?
I can’t speak for any commenters but my beef with “democratic socialists” is that the solutions all revolve around taking from the “rich” and giving to the “poor” in some capacity. Case in point is raising the payroll tax to take from hard working families too broke now to give to retired geezers so they can spend their time on Mishtalk complaining about democratic socialists. May as well raising taxes to fix medicare too while you’re at it. And don’t forget more taxes to fight wars for Israel.
I get it, people were angry at their circumstances under Biden so they voted Trump. Now they are angry at Trump and are going to vote for socialists. Let me clue you in, it won’t matter. After 4 or 8 years of democratic socialism, people will still be miserable, maybe even more so.
I keep re-iterating that inflation will spike out of control by 2030 and it won’t matter which political party is in office. big caveat is if Trump doesn’t blow up the world by then.
Well, your first post said no one ever talks about wealth inequality with the top 20% floating high and the bottom 80% drowning.
And now your second post says people want to take from the rich to give to the poor. Seems to me those people out there do see the wealth inequality you were opining about previously. If only ‘we’ can escape it…
Regardless, thanks for the “clue in”
bessent has spent to too much time with taco and is now acting like him in spewing out more verbal vomit.
The diaper vapors paralyze grey matter.
The only Trump acolytes now who stay are yes-men who will trumpet this week’s baloney to the public. Mike Johnson is a classic. JD Vance is juiced in and can’t be fired, so his oleaginous weirdness meanders around a bit, feeling for some kind of traction for ’28. JD will inject some odd pseudo-intellectual tangent word or phrase that is confusing to the semi-illiterate audience (and everyone else besides). He is sort of a male Kamala. So Bessent is the new pliable best boy to be shoved in front of the cameras. He’s supposed to be a successful trader (he was, a couple times), to lend gravity and credibility to the fake numbers talk (though the Treasury Sec. shouldn’t be trying to pull hedge fund style trades, like the yen rescue and failed Treas. buy-backs). It would be more fun and funnier if it was someone like Roger Stone or Scaramucci doing it. Or maybe Mike Pence with a novelty noose bolo tie.
They’re working entirely on the autocratic model that all data is merely propaganda so the current god king can look favorable. He will claim victory as the noose tightens around his neck.