Stop pretending. Abandon ship. 
Kalshi T Minus 5 and Counting
- Alaska: 76% D
- Iowa: 54% R
- Maine: 72% D
- North Carolina: 93% D
- Ohio: 60% D
- Texas: 59% D
That’s a loss of five Senate Seats.
Nate Silver
- Alaska: 51.3% D – Essentially a tossup
- Iowa: 59.4% D
- Maine: 74.0% D
- North Carolina: 92.5% D
- Ohio: 74.4% D
- Texas: 70.2% D
That’s a loss of five Senate Seats with Alaska a tossup
Polymarket
- Alaska: 79% D
- Iowa: 52% R
- Maine: 74.0% D
- North Carolina: 95% D
- Ohio: 63% D
- Texas: 62% D
I think the betting markets have this correct and Silver is off.
But if the betting markets are wrong on Alaska and Silver is wrong on Iowa, that still a Democrat pickup of four.
If Silver is wrong on Alaska (tossup) but correct on Iowa, that’s the +6 clean sweep scenario.
Iowa and Alaska Polls
Neither of those look any good for Republicans.
I fail to understand the betting markets on Iowa and Nate Silver’s odds on Alaska.
Otherwise everyhing else lines up.
Polymarket Balance of Power
Balance of Power Estimates
- Polymarket: 66% D Sweep
- Kalshi: 63% D Sweep
- Nate Silver: 67.4% D Sweep
- Mish: 65% D sweep
I was the first to 65% and I am reluctant to go any higher for now.
Trump to Spend Time in Texas
Sounds like good news for Democrats.
Yes, Send in Trump
Listen to these Idiots
Lesson of the Day
Yeah, Round em all up. Deport them all. Then vote for Trump.
Actually, I have no idea who she voted for. But in general, farmers voted for Trump.
I do not wish farmers harm, but nor do I have much sympathy for for any farmer who voted for Trump.
Hello Alaska
Blame Game Starts Already
Blame Thune. What a hoot.
One Hell of an Effort
But hey, have you seen the DOW?! That’s what we should be talking about.
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