The clock ticks on another trade war escalation. 
The Ball’s in Your Court
Bloomberg reports Trump, Xi Spark Another Standoff With World Economy at Risk
US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s latest tit-for-tat showdown has both countries claiming the ball is now in the other’s court, with the clock ticking toward another escalation in import tariffs.
After Trump signaled openness to doing a deal with Beijing, US Vice President JD Vance on Sunday declared the outcome would “depend on how the Chinese respond.” Hours later, China’s Foreign Ministry made clear Beijing would take its cues from Washington’s next steps, after having already unleashed what it saw as retaliatory actions.
“If the US continues on its wrong course, China will firmly take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular briefing in Beijing. Chinese authorities haven’t yet retaliated to Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs over their latest rare-earth curbs, while saying there could be “exemptions” in order to facilitate trade.
“This is China versus the world,” Bessent said. “They have pointed a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world. And you know, we’re not going to have it.”
The question now is which side blinks first.
Trump-Xi Meeting Scheduled Despite Trade Tensions
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump-Xi Meeting Scheduled Despite Trade Tensions
An expected meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is still on the schedule, a top U.S. trade official said on Tuesday. It was the strongest indication yet that the two sides are trying to deescalate their latest trade dispute, after Trump’s threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on China last week.
“There is a plan, there is a scheduled time for that,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CNBC of a Trump-Xi meeting, without providing further details. Trump threatened to call off that meeting, expected later this month, and issued a tariff threat on Friday in response to China’s latest round of export restrictions on rare earth materials.
China Blames Trump
CNN reports China says it didn’t reignite trade tensions with the US, Trump did
President Donald Trump expressed shock at China’s “surprising” move to unleash sweeping export controls on rare earths, accusing the country of “becoming very hostile.”But according to Beijing, it was Washington’s expansion of curbs on Chinese firms that ratcheted up tensions and drove it to further tighten its grip on the critical minerals essential in the production of a wide range of electronics, automobiles and semiconductors.
For Beijing, much of the current escalation could have been avoided had the Trump administration not piled on more restrictions in late September, massively increasing the number of Chinese entities on its export control list, Chinese experts and analysts said.
Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing and a government adviser, said Beijing had merely responded to Washington’s series of “petty manoeuvres.”
“From China’s perspective, this is extremely malicious,” Wu said, adding that it again shows Trump “acting in bad faith.”
“If, after more than half a year of dealing with China, the US still hasn’t realized that taking such actions against China will have serious consequences, then I’d say the people on Trump’s team are downright incompetent,” he said.
Deliberately Causing Panic
CNBC reports China accuses U.S. of deliberately causing panic over rare earth controls, says it is open to talks
- China’s Ministry of Commerce accused the U.S. of creating “panic” over Beijing’s controls on rare earth exports.
- Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yongqian said China was open to trade talks with the U.S.
- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer accused China of trying to control the world’s technology supply chains in an interview with CNBC.
China on Thursday accused the U.S. of creating “panic” over Beijing’s controls on rare earth minerals, but indicated it is open to trade talks to resolve a dispute that has threatened to reignite a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
“The US interpretation seriously distorts and exaggerates China’s measures, deliberately creating unnecessary misunderstanding and panic,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yongqian told a news conference, according to the state newspaper Global Times.
Beijing last week announced sweeping controls on rare earth exports ahead of an expected meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China starting Nov. 1 or sooner in retaliation.
Trump Confirms US-China Trade War
Finally, Yahoo!Finance reports Trump Confirms US-China Trade War
President Trump on Wednesday confirmed that trade tensions with China remain high, telling a reporter who asked whether the two countries are headed for a prolonged trade war, “Well, you’re in one now.”
The president’s comments came despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting that an extension of the tariff pause between the US and China was possible — and that Trump still plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month.
Over the past week, relations between the two countries have become increasingly strained, though both sides have sent mixed signals about just how serious the fallout could be.
Last Friday, Trump said the US would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting on Nov. 1 over Beijing’s plan to impose new export controls on rare earth minerals.
At the start of this week, Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief when Trump hinted at a possible deescalation.
“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Since then, however, China sanctioned US units of a South Korean shipping company, while Trump threatened to further curtail trade with the country in response to its halt of US soybean purchases.
US tariffs on China of nearly 145% in some cases are on hold until Nov. 10 while the two countries negotiate a larger trade deal. Chinese tariffs on US goods ballooned to 125% before the pause.
What to Expect at the Xi Trump Meeting
I suspect fluff announcements over soybeans or other meaningless chatter that both sides may praise.
There is no reason for China to offer much. Trump has midterm election concerns, farmer concerns, and he should have recession concerns.
If there is anything, Trump will brag about it.
But unless Trump makes serious concessions, China won’t either.
Regardless, no matter what comes out of this meeting, Trump is prone to trade temper tantrums to which China will respond in kind.
Look for an unstable truce.
But Trump is backing down on some threats already as economic damage sets in.
For discussion, please see Trump Tiptoes Away from Reciprocal Tariffs with Many New Exemptions
Trade wars are easy to win
Who threw the first punch?
“I suspect fluff announcements over soybeans or other meaningless chatter…”
Not fluff. Note, I’m not someone who sees Trump as the second coming or as someone who will do much more in the long run that rearrange the deck chairs on our Titanic, but small farmer problems will simply lead to further monopolization of agriculture which will strengthen an already powerful owner of “our” government: Big Ag.
Grok 3 AI:
Soybean farmers in the United States are experiencing significant financial difficulties primarily due to China’s retaliatory tariffs and halt on purchases amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. China, which historically buys over half of U.S. soybean exports, has shifted sourcing to competitors like Brazil and Argentina, leading to plummeting prices, unsold stockpiles, and projected losses for farmers. This crisis, escalating in 2025 under renewed tariffs from the Trump administration, compounds existing pressures from high input costs and a record U.S. harvest.
The US ammunition stock pile was never as low as today. Putin cont to deplete us, while Xi and Zhang are preparing to invade Taiwan. Xi might declare an emergency rule. He will reinstate his top generals and declare leniency after victory.
Why would ZI even bother to talk to Trump or his minions and sycophants?
XI’s time is far better spent on building relationships with reliable trading partners in the global economy.
XI should simply tell the world that he does not do business with a lying pedophile that never honors a trade deal or negotiates in good faith.
Let the orange TACO pound sand!
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In the last three month XACO prepared every county, city, hospital, college and school for a war. Last week 36 top generals: in the northern command, eastern command – which faces Taiwan – central command, western command, the navy and the missiles force were sacked. China prepares for a war, but its top generals were sacked. Last week general Zhang Youxia ordered every county, state, city and land will be under military control. He transferred power from the private sector and from the bureaucrats to PLA. Pete Hegseth change the DoD to DoW and gathered 600 top generals as a warning to China.
In June Trump bombed Fordo.
Option: XACO and Zhang are partners. They con Trump.
China might ask for those EUV machines
you like it or not China has upper hand now. So Trump will have to TACO, China is not going to budge here.
This is sad but as I was stating on this blog. China is raising empire and USA is a declining one. China is willing to work and sacrifice more than USA so gap will grow.
Unfortunately with current USA leadership there is no chance to match with China. Dems want to focus on social issue (climate, human right, number of sexes stupidity etc) while Republicans (Trump now) pipe dream of time long lost (going back to USA of 1950-1960).
In the same time China leadership is looking into future (AI, electrification, renewable energy, robots). So lets be real, which country will lead in 21st century.
There is no standoff. China is now going in for the kill. There is no negotiation either since there is nothing from the US that China wants. But the US needs China to survive.
China needs consumers. That is one entity China does not produce well. It produces savers.
Trump clearly started the trade war.
.——————— One should anticipate NO NEW Chinese Response to Trump’s threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on China last week. – Frankly because China deems this childlike behavior and nonsense – why not make it 500% again it is just silly
China had already spoken – There is no need for China to speak again
In statements from October 12 onward, Chinese officials—including spokespeople from the Ministry of Commerce—explicitly rejected escalating with new tariffs. They described Trump’s threat as “hypocritical” and a “textbook double standard,” but stressed
“””” that China has already set its tariff rates from earlier trade war phases (e.g., 25% on many U.S. goods like soybeans and autos) and sees no need to “increase” them further. “””””””
One key quote from a Commerce Ministry rep: “We will not back down to threats, but differences should be resolved through negotiations, not by piling on more duties.”
——————— One should anticipate NO NEW Chinese Response to Trump’s threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on China last week. – Frankly because China deems this childlike behavior and nonsense – why not make it 500% again it is just silly
I guess what I would ask is what changed? China had announced tariffs of over 100% on US goods earlier this year. Why was 100% the response before, but now we should expect nothing beyond 25?
I still believe China, and others, are simply biding their time in the likelihood Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are shot down by the Supreme Court. It seems unlikely to me they would simply tolerate tariff levels that amount to a trade embargo.
There is no reason for China to offer anything, because D.C.:
– sees good-faith negotiation as weakness
– reneges immediately after every concession
Trumps arrogance is going to cost all of us eventually ~. no one wants to trust a lying bully! Xi should simply tell Trump that the meeting is off.
Chinas exports to the US are only 8% of their trade and since it is a command economy China can accelerate its AI and infrastructure buildout.
Xi should “Southpark Trump” since he is literally the definition of “The Emperor Has No Clothes”. Season 28 has stated out with a bang! 😉
At least Prince Andrew is taking the heat for his sexual abuse of little girls. Trump has yet to pay… YET!
“President Donald Trump expressed shock at China’s “surprising” move to unleash sweeping export controls on rare earths.”
Shocked my ass, CNN. Nice try at a fake narrative. Everyone, even you all nimrods knew this was going to happen. Nice try!
The economy is still doing great thanks to economic inertia from the previous administration and the silly AI overinvestment bubble. However, at some point these factors are going to run out and all the zig-zag, counterproductive policies the current administration has been instituting are going to hit the US like a brick wall. It’s not a matter of if, but when.
Correct, Trump failed to secure supplies of rare earths before starting a war that hurts us more than them…
Trump? Xi? Rare earths?
This goes back over 30 years to Corporate America, Wall Street, Private Equity and the vendors circus tent in Bentonville, Arkansas. Later, Bezo took it to a higher level.
We exported dollars and imported deflation. It worked until Trump broke it. Now gold is over $4,200 and no one trust us.
Worked is a matter of perspective. Exported dollars is a euphemism for took on trillions in debt to support a profligate federal government and a consumer who could barely control himself any more than uncle sugar could. It was going to end eventually. Trump is just the accelerant.
This isn’t a trivial matter. Shutting down trade between China and the US will hurt both countries a lot. The US should pay attention to their vulnerability (rare earths) and Chinese dishonesty, but Trump is remiss in trying to fix it all-at-once with what amount to bullying tactics. Like most wars (the opposite of voluntary trade), both sides lose much more than anything they gain.
Fix it all at once and PR stunting is what I see. That said, it is a worthy cause for concern. No going back now, but possibly mitigation going forward can be accomplished.
Shutting trade is not possible for the USA, take that off the table.
“Chinese dishonesty” <– ridiculous
The guy who constantly contradicts himself is the dishonest actor. One of the worst lowlifes in POTUS history.
(Corrected from “worst”, because I think Creepy Joe was incredibly sleazy but “less accomplished”. Others like the Clinton’s and Bushes were “classier criminals”.)
China has never kept any promise they’ve made, most salient being the promise not to put their boot heel on Hong Kong. They steal intellectual property with abandon.
The US has set the gold standard in breaking treaties….they started way back with the Amerindians as white men speaking with forked tongue.
The U.S. has been bellicose toward China for years, continually talking about an upcoming war. Note that we expect this war on their turf, not ours. Why would China cooperate in exporting rare earths that the U.S. needs for weaponry?
China didn’t respond. The rare earth global embargo was shifted from Nov 1st to Dec 1st.Trump is waiting for the 4th plenium results.
It’s long past time to quit giving Red China special deals and wide-open access to American markets. Globalist Demopublicans are guilty of treason.
Yep! The little short guy from Texas that ran for president in the 90’s was right. Ross Perot I think.
Plus Perot had run business successfully. Trump is good at bankrupting them.
Ross Perot’s success was getting taxpayer money from the government.
usa+europe+ asia minions were not able to BREAK RUSSIAN ECONOMY, w/ gdp less than Canada or California (jesus!!!), so called gas station W/ NUKES by putting 1000xxxx sanctions on for last 5 years!
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and now, this orange retard think HE WILL BREAK Chinese ECONOMY BY posting on X ???
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i bet he wont find china on map w/out labels, name biggest rivers on china, or major mountains in china.
what a mo11ron..
alx
Are u Putin influencer or XACO pd influencer.
do you know what binary thinking means? i bet you dont.!
get lost.
The blame belongs on Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden who supported numerous trade deals that favored China. They put the US in this situation. Put the blame where it belongs.
bs
all nafta laws were voted by congress
it seems you are not aware power structure in usa.
horsepuckey
It sounds like neither side wants an agreement.
Conversely, I think they both want an agreement. The fallacy is, they both want the agreement to favor themselves. But I agree with Mish. China will agree to buy some soybeans and Trump will taco, and they will both boast about the big, beautiful agreement.
Xi doesn’t boast or bully…..that is the exclusive domain of Trump.
china runs trade surplus, its domestic markets are bigger than in USA-
cars, phones, etc
why would china care about orange clown?
Children will be children.
The problem with the US’s child in this situation is that he is a petty bullying pedophile with zero credibility in keeping any agreement he makes.
Prince Andrew is getting his… Trump is next!
Unfortunately I doubt trump will face justice. His followers are rabid and his donors/controllers are powerful.
Sad but true