Charlie Cook at Cook Political has some interesting election observations.
The Elephant in the Room
Please consider GOP Is Losing Control of Events—and Trump Owns It All by Charlie Cook.
Donald Trump is the elephant in the room for this election; indeed, he seems to be the elephant in every room. A consultant to a Republican gubernatorial nominee last week told me that each of the last two times Trump came to their swing state, they took a hit of a point or two, indicating that they really didn’t want him to come back. In fact, I got the impression that many GOP campaigns had to weigh the cost of a return Trump visit with a potential attack from him on Truth Social if they declined.
Two months ago, this column argued that the political environment for the GOP had deteriorated to the point that the three most likely scenarios for the party were “bad, really bad, or truly horrible.” It should never have gotten there. Republicans were protected by guardrails. Three decades of gerrymandering have left few congressional districts naturally competitive, and the House is less elastic than it was in previous bloodbath midterms. A party cannot lose a seat it doesn’t have; with Republicans holding 220 seats, there were fewer seats they could potentially lose.
In the Senate, rarely has any party gone into an election with a friendlier map than Republicans this year. The oft-cited statistic shows that 20 of the 22 GOP seats up this year are in states Trump won by double digits, plus North Carolina, which he carried three times by narrow margins. It goes even deeper than that: Six of the 22 GOP seats have not voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson; five more, not since Bill Clinton carried them in 1996.
Those guardrails now appear to have been dismantled. Eight months of surging energy prices, the result of Trump’s highly questionable and deeply unpopular decision not just to attack Iran on Feb. 28, but to do so without putting together a coalition of allies other than Israel, has resulted in incalculable political damage for Trump’s party. The initial closure and subsequent constriction of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, and the accompanying damage to energy infrastructure in the region, had the totally predictable impact: sky-high gasoline, diesel, fuel-oil, and fertilizer prices.
This was on top of Trump’s promiscuous use of tariffs, even against our neighbors and closest allies, with the equally predictable retaliation from our trading partners, creating a series of trade wars that jacked up prices on all manner of goods. Even voters who had never taken an economics class could figure out where this was headed.
What makes this situation so damaging to Republicans is that these policies seemed almost calculated to target one of the most loyal elements of the GOP base: those who lived in rural America, smaller cities, or exurbs. They drive the longest distances and are more likely to be driving pickup trucks, own farm equipment, use diesel and, oh yes, be hurt by tariffs and a liberalization on the importation of foreign beef. The fact that it came at the hands of a president that they had repeatedly voted for just made the pain even greater.
Exacerbating the situation is the growing perception that Trump’s real focus is not on the potential impact of his policies, but rather on demolition of the East Wing, construction of a $600 million White House ballroom, renovation of the Reflecting Pool, construction of an arch that would overshadow the entrance to Arlington Cemetery, a takeover of the Kennedy Center, and a goal of naming anything possible after himself.
The irony, of course, is that in our binary political system, when voters decide to severely punish one party, the result rewards the other party, whether they deserve it or not. Democrats have yet to understand why they lost the House in 2022, as well as the Senate and presidency in 2024, so what makes us think they will understand this year that they will be less victors than beneficiaries? They will owe this win to Trump, though they’re unlikely to see it that way.
A Word About Mandates
- In 2016, on a flimsy win in terms of actual votes Republicans thought they had a mandate.
- In 2020, Biden thought he had a mandate. After promising to be a healer and a uniter, Biden flouted the Supreme Court and passed amazingly inflationary free money handouts.
- In 2024, Trump and MAGA took the word mandate to unbelievable heights with executive orders, unconstitutional actions, idiotic tariffs, immoral deportations, and the stupidest war in history.
Is There a Mandate Now?
Yes, in a way. The country voted in an unmistakable message against Trump and his corruption. This was not a narrow win. Unlike 2016 and 2020, this was a legendary massacre.
However, Democrats did not lay out an economic agenda. All they did was smash a well-deserved brick into Trump’s face.
There is no mandate for policies Democrats were too chicken to discuss in the campaign. That includes DEI silliness and inflationary free money programs.
What’s Immediately Fixable?
I can think of a few things. The first is immigration. The farm states need labor and so do homebuilders. There is a shortage of nurses.
Deporting solid workers is economic madness and racist.
Trump has hinted many times that he is willing. Done correctly there should be some bipartisan support. Unfortunately, Trump’s choice of Stephen Miller dictates the immediate outcome.
Regardless, force Trump and Republicans to take some stands. Do something about Tariffs. Trump will veto such legislation, but force Republican Senators to take a stand.
Vote to release the Epstein files. All of them, That’s something that stands a chance of a veto override.
Figure out a fix to Social Security. Everyone knows it’s a problem.
But a radical swing to the Left if going nowhere for at least two years. And it’s not what the country voted for anyway.
A mandate against Trump is not a mandate for a return to the Bidenomics the country threw away just two years ago.
But yes, Trump 100 percent owns this outcome.
Related Posts
November 5, 2026: Did the Endless War Just End? What About the War in Iran?
Endless wars don’t end by definition. So what about Iran?
November 5, 2026: Trump’s Legacy and a Word of Thanks to MishTalk Readers
My reflections on one of the biggest political wipeouts in history, plus a word of thanks.
November 6, 2026: Trump Doubles Down, Appoints White Supremist Stephen Miller to Chief of Staff
Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s ICE Gestapo tactics, is the new Chief of Staff.
November 7, 2026: What Impact Did Trump’s ICE Deportations Play in the Midterm Elections?
Vance admits the war, but downplays immigration. He’s wrong on the latter.
i’ve said for ages i would bet anyone, couldn’t pass a blind test on which party was president or ran congress over the past 60 years. now that trump has recreated the smoot hawley tariffs X 100 and made enemies with all our natural allies like canada……..who are boycotting usa products…………plus bombing Persia and retreating usa bases from the saudi peninsula………i am going to have to cease with that bet. the past 2 years of Donald from queens stands out for idiocracy. i was born in queens, too. i must say, we all knew he was an asshole in nyc area for the past 45 years at least.
Why can’t American businesses and farmers hire legal immigrants? What is with this obsession with hiring illegal border crossers? It is not “racist” to deport people who enter the country illegally. Neither is it “racist” to give them speeding tickets or charge them if they beat their spouses.
If you need 10,000,000 people to work on farms and factories, issue 10,000,000 work permits to vetted workers. This is not complicated. Did you know that 199 other countries figured this out decades ago?
Dumb take, migration is a problem all around the world
Also, only a MAGA would equate beating their wife with skipping a border to look for work.
A bitterly disappointed America was so looking forward to seeing a UFC fighter break Kaitlyn Collins’s neck.
Republican party owns it. They controlled congress and the senate. They could have been passing good legislation he would have signed off on and taken credit for. Controlling the purse they could have stopped funding the wars. They could have shut down the H1B program which Trump put a brake on with the $100K fee which a federal judge Leo T Sorokin appointed by Obama struck down ruling only congress had that authority. Expect there is quite a bit of buyer’s remorse among the party failing to work with him and the voting public starting to realize very doubtful things are going to improve over the next two years. Massie for all his blustering hasn’t read out any names like he promised. Now calling for a second vote. Billionaire investor Leon Black filed a $7.25 million to $7.5 million federal defamation lawsuit against California Democratic U.S. Representative Robert Garcia which should open the files to him under discovery.
AIPAC posted “Congressman Massie’s defeat on Tuesday sets a clear precedent elected officials are free to disagree with us but only briefly” which was viewed by 31 million people before it was taken down.
Now Massie is calling for a second vote. Billionaire investor Leon Black filed a $7.25 million to $7.5 million federal defamation lawsuit against California Democratic U.S. Representative Robert Garcia which should open the files to him under discovery.
President Donald Trump has vetoed two bills during his second administration. Both vetoes were issued on December 29, 2025, during the 119th Congress:
• H.R. 131 (Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act): Sponsored by Rep. Lauren Boebert, this bill aimed to adjust financing and extend repayment terms (from 50 to 75 years) for a drinking water pipeline project in eastern Colorado. Trump vetoed the measure to protect federal taxpayers from shifting costs and special interest spending.
• H.R. 504 (Miccosukee Reserved Area Amendments Act): This legislation would have granted the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida greater control over a section of tribal lands in the Everglades for flood mitigation and a village area. Trump cited opposition due to the tribe’s legal challenges against the administration’s immigration policies and the “Alligator Alcatraz” detention facility.
Congressional Status
• House Vote: The House of Representatives voted to override both vetoes on January 8, 2026, falling short of the required two-thirds majority (voting 248–177 on H.R. 131 and 236–188 on H.R. 504).
• Outcome: Both vetoes were sustained
The next two years are going to be anything but dull.
Trump on 60 minutes.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-some-of-his-immigration-policies-may-have-been-too-tough-60-minutes/
Remarkable Trump has this level of self-reflection once in a lifetime.
Well, it’s how Mar-a-Lago runs.
As far as Team D is concerned, there always is a mandate for the things that they want and no mandate for anything else…
“Israel today, Israel tomorrow, Israel forever!” -Hakeem Jeffries, 2014, in response to another Israeli murder of children.
Yes, he knows full well that he was echoing George Wallace in his infamous University of Alabama speech defending segregation.
Since then he has changed his stance on Israel.
Hakeem Jeffries has not publically reversed his core stance on supporting Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish and democratic state, though his public statements and positions have evolved to incorporate calls for a two-state solution and criticism of specific policies of the Israeli government.
Key Facts on His Stance:
• The 2014 Quote: In July 2014, during a pro-Israel rally in New York, Hakeem Jeffries stated: “Israel today, Israel tomorrow, Israel forever!”.
• Continued Support: Jeffries has consistently maintained strong ties with pro-Israel organizations, including receiving support from groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). In July 2026, he voted against an amendment in the House to cut off U.S. military assistance to Israel and announced opposition to a Republican measure targeting U.S. aid.
• Calls for Policy Adjustments / Two-State Solution: While maintaining backing for Israel’s security and right to exist, Jeffries has also criticized aspects of the war in Gaza, referred to the humanitarian toll on Palestinian civilians as “unacceptable”, and pushed for a “major reset” in U.S.-Israel policy that supports a two-state solution and addresses West Bank settler violence.
UK columnist Ian Dunt warns that although the Midterm results are a relief, the UK should not fall back in love with the USA. The country is basically mad and we should distance ourselves from it as quickly as possible.
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/dont-fall-back-in-love-with-the-usa
The UK? What’s that? Is that the remnants of a failed empire? Last I heard they were one bank crisis away from becoming “emerging market” which is code for third-world country. How’s that Brexit going? When is it going to pay off? I also heard they want back in the EU now. Lol.
And surprisingly, America was under the same isolationist path with Trump, let’s see how the next two years go.
UK doesn’t put you in jail for writing bad stuff about USA just writing & posting stuff criticizing the government for persecuting people flying their country’s flag or identifying what demographic is causing most of the problems. Even dug up four woman woman to lock up R Brand. No evidence years past. No police reports. Just believe all women he said she said.
There is no easy way to reverse Trump.
Oil, refineries, gas, sulfur, fertilizer — these will not return to the status ante for years.
Nowhere near the problem that Medical Spending is (almost the entire budget deficit and compounding exponentially).
But DEMs will focus on exacerbating it.
social security and budget are all congress
they constantly spend more than they take in and
create constant inflation by doing so
Trump has signed off on every dollar. He has the right to veto spending bills. Most fiscally irresponsible President in American history.
“A mandate against Trump is not a mandate for a return to the Bidenomics the country threw away just two years ago.”
Bidenomics is little more than a “nothing will fundamentally change” deal. Big corporations enjoyed big giveaways from the government. Like they have been doing for decades now.
A racist is a person who holds the belief that one race is superior or inferior to another, or someone whose actions, remarks, or policies discriminate against people based on their race or ethnicity. Trump fails to meet that definition.
And yet we are known by our actions and associations. Your creation of a credibility test misses by a mile.
Words have meaning and that is a definition of racism. Trump does not meet that standard.
His actions against al Sayed by themselves show he is a racist by your definition. And you don’t have to go much further back to find much more.
You apparently have not read his remarks about Somali immigrants.
Trump requires a different assessment because he believes that everyone is inferior to himself.
HILARIOUS.
Why are you here defending Trump? Do you think anyone here is going to believe you over their own beliefs? You think you’re going to change anyone’s mind?
Most puzzling of all, Trump is irrelevant lame duck at this point, he will be castrated by the incoming blue Congress in a couple of months and won’t accomplish anything but more bloviating.
Strange die hard MAGA apologists still worshiping this failed messiah.
Mike’s a cunt, dude.
For those here without access to the Internet(/s), you can find the platform of the democratic party here:
https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2024-Democratic-Party-Platform.pdf
from Mish
Going on a 3-day 2-night backpacking trip.
I will not be able to approve anything that gets caught up needing approval. Multiple links are one possible snare.
Coyote Gulch
Grand-Staircase Escalante
Need a break from this.
But I have many posts scheduled. Three Saturday and I think Three Sunday too. So keep checking.
Some really cool ones Including “Texas Goes Purple and What It Means”
Someone please post this message on my Saturday and Sunday articles.
Mish
What do we do with the broken system that we have?
Perhaps best would be to forget those words “One nation, (under God,) indivisible, “, pick up the Tenth Amendment and walk away from the dysfunction of Washington DC and the two parties there and take responsibility for ourselves.
More likely we will remain in this unsatisfactory game of ping-pong.
“A mandate against Trump is not a mandate for a return to the Bidenomics the country threw away just two years ago.”
Exactly!
Correct, It is a mandate to do away with everything Trump!
Where’s the coffee clutch report? don’t let the group down Frosty.
Some doubts:
— The vast majority of recent immigrants move to inner cities to live on welfare. Very few take construction jobs. Republicans claim that less than 1% take farm jobs, and there’s already a visa program for them anyway (guest workers). Texas new governor already declared that they won’t cooperate with ICE, so it’s becoming a sanctuary State (aka completely open border).
— DEI and woke will go on steroids. None of the Democrats said they won’t do it again. AOC implied there’s woke 2.0 coming (by saying “woke 1 was crazy“).
— Why do you think the Democrats didn’t lay an economic agenda? Maybe they don’t want to commit to anything?
— What do you think they’ll do with the H1B visas? They know that if they restrict it (or cancel it), that’s “nationalism”. Plus, they can’t attack Big Tech, because they control the algorithms.
It sound like you’re just projecting your own thoughts, without evidence, on a political party that shares none of them. So you’d have to clarify what makes you believe that the Democrats won’t be as complacent and arrogant as the Trump admin did. Their main voter mandate is “cost of living.” You know what happens to cost of living (starting with gas prices) under a green new deal agenda, 3 years from now.
The vast majority of recent immigrants move to inner cities to live on welfare Republicans claim that less than 1% take farm jobs
Really? Tell that to the immigrants who live in Immokalee Florida
Perhaps multiply that number by a hundred.
“ You know what happens to cost of living (starting with gas prices) under a green new deal agenda, 3 years from now.” -> would it be worse than, say, start a war in Iran?
I’m confused, I thought all the illegals were at farms and those rural meat packing plants, construction sites, suburban landscapers, now they are all in big cities collecting benefits? By that measure illegals basically ARE the population and everyone else is just an enabler by paying them. And I thought everyone was leaving big cities, especially the blue ones but now they are overrun by illegals?
Try to get your story straight. Better yet use something called google or your favorite AI chatbot to provide some links to real data otherwise you’re just a moronic fool.
How apropos to use a fat elephant and current dilemma for repubs. If you’ve ever been around elephants, you know how much they stink and how much they sh!t. In this case, America has been pooped on by the turd king himself enabled by now stomped scumbag republicans.
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2026/10/15/houston-construction-industry-faces-labor-shortages-amid-immigration-enforcement/
The people have spoken and they want profits back on the table.
Trump is the head, MAGA is the reactionary body of the problem. Authoritarianism/domination is contrary to Democracy/Americanism.
And the key to resolving these opposites is to change the monoply monetary and economic paradigm of Debt Only…with you know what.
I am fearful that we will witness an utterly cynical response by Democrats. Don’t impeach Trump, Allow/encourage a stalemate – for 2 years. Why?
So that they stroll into the White House in 2028, easily. The American people be damned.
If they don’t manage to get rid of Schumer and Jeffries, this is exactly what will happen.
To lighten yet liven everything up regarding stephen miller whom does he resemble more a defrocked priest or the creep driving the ice cream truck that everyones parents warned you to stay away from? My vote creep driving the ice cream truck
Other possible question whom does stephen miller resemble more fearless leader from bullwinkle or an actual ss and or sa member? I was thinking goring rohm hess and or eichman so my vote is actual ss and or sa member. B4 I get attacked bear in mind that this sycophant henchman boot licking ass kissing jerk off has gotten innocent men women and children injured and killed. Free speech use it and there is no being niece to corporate fascists
And stephen miller self hating gay man like lindsay graham AKA in the closet
Finally we are raising money for a hair brush and a comb for stephen miller. Note I am an American man and I have zero fear of this ugly twerp and he should be deported along with musk thiel and ramaswamy and throw in loomer whom I am not sure if that is a man or woman haha
Fun fact: A twerp is someone that bites his fart bubbles in the bathtub.
joseph goebbels
Seniority is a reality which is why you rarely get rid of your establishment representative crook while crying out for reform.
Trump is the political whacking bad Trump pinata.
Why impeach Trump when you don’t have the Seats in the senate for a conviction? It was tried after Jan 6 and even then republicans didnt dare hold trump to account.
You need 2/3 of the Senators voting. Not 2/3 of the Senate. Assuming 56 Dem senators, if 10 Republicans don’t participate in the vote, then the Dems need just 4 more votes to convict.
Make that 5 more votes. Not 4. I forgot about Fetterman 😀
More theater pretending they are hard at work instead of constructive legislation.
And it makes even less sense now that he is in his final 2 years and can’t run again. Might have made sense in his first term if they could have gotten the 2/3 votes to prevent him running again.