Instead of under promising and overdelivering, Trump usually does the opposite.
Fantastic Deal Coming Up?
Please consider Trump vows to reach a ‘fantastic deal’ with China after future meeting with Xi
President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. commands “great respect” from Beijing and that he will reach a “fantastic deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the two leaders meet soon.
Trump’s remarks come after Beijing infuriated him by expanding export controls on rare earth products that are used in smartphones, fighter jets, electric vehicles and more. Trump spoke as he hosted Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House, celebrating an agreement with the U.S. ally as a potential counterpoint to China’s near-monopoly in processing those critical minerals.
“I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China,” Trump said. “It’s going to be a great trade deal. It’s going to be fantastic for both countries, and it’s going to be fantastic for the entire world.”
When asked about China’s leverage, Trump said Beijing “threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs.” But he insisted his good relationship with Xi means they would work out ”a very fair deal.”
The president has threatened to impose a new 100% tariff on China in response to Beijing’s expanded rules on rare earth products. And he said Monday that it has already had results.
“Now, they’re treating us with great respect,” Trump said. “Now, we’ll see what happens. I said, if we don’t make a deal, I’m putting on an additional 100% on November 1. I think we’ll make a deal.”
When asked if he could yield to Beijing’s pressure not to support Taiwan independence in exchange for a deal, Trump said, “Well, I’m not going to talk about that.”
What Does a Fantastic Deal Look Like?
Trump will brag about any deal. It will be fantastic by definition. Fantastic to me would be cancellation of reciprocal tariffs. But that won’t happen.
In between the next-to-nothing scenarios and the world’s fair of ending reciprocal tariffs, there is a lot of mushy ground.
Trump wants China to buy more soybeans while ending export controls on rare earths.
Great.
What is Trump offering in return? The prior status quo before reciprocal madness? Taiwan? What?
If Trump demand the world and offers nothing but tariff threats, there will be no deal at all.
Be prepared for a “fantastic” deal that centers around the pre-existing status quo, unwinding some of Trumps reciprocal tariff buffoonery in return for China agreeing to buy more soybeans.
Would that be fantastic?
If There’s a Deal, Will It Stick?
That depends more on what Trump does than China.
If Trump throws another hissy fit with tariffs or export restrictions, China would respond in kind.
Perhaps Trump has figured that out by now, but don’t count on it.
My expectation is for an uneasy truce.
If there’s more to it than that, Trump will have to give up something.
Related Posts
October 19, 2025: Trump Tiptoes Away from Reciprocal Tariffs with Many New Exemptions
October 19, 2025: Trump and Xi in Standoff, Each Blame the Other for the Trade War
October 19, 2025: Who Pays Trump Tariffs? Goldman Sachs Has a Realistic Breakdown
Damage Trump is doing to USA reputation is more and more visible.
We see lots of countries just ignore Trump:
More and more countries just start ignoring USA as it is not reliable partner so what is the point of even bothering. This damage will only grow over time, china influence will also grow.
Regarding China deal, this whole bravado just exposing harsh reality to the world which might be not that visible. USA has really nothing to offer to China while it needs China a lot. We have few things which China might like, like our SW (android with Huawei) and now chips (Nvidia) we restrict. China is creating own alternatives so with time we will have even less to offer.
The Emperor Has No Clothes
Expectations … uneasy truce – reality, China has a seasoned capable savvy shrewd leader and the US has ….
For me, this doesn’t lead to an uneasy truce.
Trump is more dishonorable than Harry Mudd in the Trek universe.
He deserves imprisonment with 500 clones each of Hillary, Kamala, and Miriam. Earliest chance for parole in stardate 2532.6
I agree 100% that TACO will overplay whatever deal the US strikes with China. It won’t be nearly as great as he makes it out to be.
However, the USA is increasingly making big moves to eliminate China’s dominance in REM, both in terms of extraction & processing. Of course, it will be 2-3 more years before we start to see a clear light at the end of the tunnel. Trump is also beginning to address critical goods like electronics & pharma.
A fantastic deal must recognize that China has to give up more than the US, given that Trump’s America First policy is trying to correct past wrongs. Trump is trying to correct: 1) The massive amount of IP theft China has engaged in via direct espionage and forced IP transfer by US companies setting up shop in China 2) The enormous economic gain China has received from running very large trade surpluses with the US. Again, both of these issues are juxtaposed against Trump’s America First economic paradigm shift that he’s trying to cajole China & US corporations into accepting.
A fantastic deal IMHO looks something like this
As for our agro industry, I read a fantastic article from a pro-farming website that outlined how the US is too dependent on agro exports & more needs to be done to move America farmers towards growing most of the agro we import. The soybean industry is a great example of this.
“forced IP transfer by US companies”
“forced”? That’s the deal NATO oligarchs CHOSE in order to destroy the leverage of NATO workers to keep up with inflation.
I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Back in reality, Westinghouse was forced into IP transfer, when they helped China build a nuclear power plant many years ago using Westinghouse’s design. China promised to build a ton of them. False, only 3-4 were built, then Westinghouse stopped getting contracts & all of a sudden China started to build nuclear reactors based on the Westinghouse design. Multiply that by at least 1000x, and that’s what US companies doing business in China have been forced to do for the past 30-40 years.
“no idea”. Sigh.
In addition…
IP isn’t a monopoly forever. It expires after a couple decades or so, depending on applicable laws/treaties and the subject matter. If Westinghouse had a claim, they’re big boys and should’ve sued. If it was “1000x”, then USA oligarchs shouldve stopped before outsourcing so much work. But they didn’t. They continued. And if elements of the “design” were decades old (perhaps superficially because TMI discouraged additional plants in the USA but probably for other reasons), then no IP was “stolen” — unless you’re arguing “in principle” rather than legally. But that’s a bigger can of worms that I doubt you’re opening.
I bet a lot of Westinghouse research was done by Chinese people. Increasingly, they studied and stayed at home. Congrats to them for earning a bigger piece of the pie instead of working for dwindling slices like US engineers (compared to sales and executive pay).
It’s a shame our oligarchs turned your anger away from them for decisions they made and towards China.
I didn’t know Westinghouse was an oligarch.
BTW, I’m not angry, at least not yet anyway.
Dems are the party of anger & violence.
Assuming you’re a US citizen, it must be so satisfying to hate the country so much that you’re a citizen of and to be wrapped around Xi’s finger like a puppy.
BTW IMHO, you post way too much here.
Why does that get 4 downvotes and no upvotes?
What is untrue about that statement?
Ask GE & Caterpillar how it went investing in China
That was meant for everyone else, Ben. I agree with what you said
Westinghouse is still involved in building nuclear power plants in China.
Underpromising and overdelivering is generally best done by those that must get things done to get ahead or complete the mission they were paid for. I’ve found that overpromising is what the highest-paid movers-and-shakers do to stay atop the grift heap. Politicians overpromise. Elon Musk does both. Bill Gates used to create vaporware, at its core overpromising.
I don’t envision much change so long as China is currently necessary on many fronts…and while they still need us as customers. As those conditions change, leverage changes. Until it moves signficantly we’ll get posturing. Both are massively indebted nations like most of the world.
Our moves are meant to awaken the long-accepted shift of critical resource, supply chain and manfacturing overseas, to anywhere-but-here. We’ll see if we learn the lesson without too much pain to get there.
Well at least he didn’t say huge……………………….
I’m embarrassed that I voted for this clown. He’s an economic moron. It can takes months to qualify new sources of raw materials for critical applications. Xi has him by the Charlies and he knows it. Meanwhile Ford and GM are losing billions, laying people off by the thousands and may have to idle some plants because they can’t get the materials they need from China. Ford is even moving some production of critical parts to China to bypass this nonsense. Idiot.
Ok. But how is moving production of critical parts to China a good thing for America?
No
“The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones—that kind of thing is going to come to America,”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/10/anti-woke-tax-tariffs-trump/684593/?gift=j9r7avb6p-KY8zdjhsiSZ9HYVRh7JylE_hV_ZzR2ZeE
The Atlantic is a broken clock, at best. There’s no point reading anything they have to say.
Not to say I wouldn’t agree with them on narrow points, on occasion, including your reason for citing this article. That happens with broken clocks.
What Wall Street has created:
They have landed on the moon several times and even brought samples back. The last to do that was the Soviets in 1970:
China Brought Something Unexpected Back From The Far Side of The Moon
21 October 2025
https://www.sciencealert.com/china-brought-something-unexpected-back-from-the-far-side-of-the-moon
They have landed on Mars with a rover. The only other country to successfully land anything on Mars is us.
China’s 1st Mars rover ‘Zhurong’ lands on the Red Planet
May 15, 2021
https://www.space.com/china-mars-rover-landing-success-tianwen-1-zhurong
The big sales job going down here is to Trump’s base.
– Instead of under promising and overdelivering, Trump usually does the opposite.
> You can talk old news, or look forward to better days ahead. I frankly don’t care at all what Trump Usually Does, but ONLY What He Does This Time!
– President Donald Trump said Monday that he will reach a “fantastic deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the two leaders meet soon.
> I see no reason why They won’t. All the banter has been done, and each side knows how far the other will go. So now that they are familiar and comfortable with this understanding, they can now make a deal! Play dates are over, and it’s on to Deal Making Now IMO!
– When asked about China’s leverage, Trump insisted his good relationship with Xi means they would work out ”a very fair deal.”
> There is no other option but such a deal, imo.
– Trump will brag about any deal. It will be fantastic by definition.
> I prefer he does that, than the opposite, if it’s a choice.
– What is Trump offering in return?
> Whatever he has too, that isn’t too much in His Eyes. He will have to give more, and He is well aware of that. With ALL Cards on the table now, they can each toss the ones that are deal breakers, keep the acceptable ones, and go from there. I could see a deal in a matter of days in all honesty. They both did what they had to, to get here, so now it’s pick and play until they both feel a win for there side.
– That depends more on what Trump does than China.
> No it doesn’t, it Entirely Depends on what they Both Do! Each Side must be Happy or No Deal!
Thanks to short term profit seeking being inherent in Wall Street behavior, China has proved the great truth of the old commie adage which is the fundamental message of a much longer Lenin quote, “Capitalists will sell you the rope you hang them with,” which in this case is “will effectively finance the construction of your rope factories, provide rope making intellectual property as a required part of the deal or ignore its outright theft, and then BUY the rope you hang them with.” As a result we’ve created and become dangerously dependent on a political and military adversary. Since our political system is corporate owned, it did not stop this policy which was obviously dangerous in the long term. It actually encouraged it.
That has led to the situation where an enemy has been created primarily with our help and we’ve become so dependent on the products of the industries we’ve exported to them that we are doomed to continue to support the growth of their military strength by buying their products which are no longer made here. Our primary advantage is our current ability to print from thin air unlimited amounts of the world’s reserve currency (for now) and borrow our way to “wealth” while increasing the national debt to the point where the annual interest payments on it are more than our entire military budget.
Frankly, we’re screwed in the long run unless we do radical things related to that reserve currency position to push China over an economic cliff. That will not be done, of course, because neither pols or their Wall Street owners want the economic effects from that which would be felt here.
For those here who seem to enjoy China winning because they hate Trump (I’m not a big fan either), which OLIGARCHY would you prefer ruling over you as the world hegemon: one which has some lingering vestiges of human rights or a 100% authoritarian surveillance state, because those ARE your TWO choices.
China is not an enemy of the USA, and the leadership of the CCP has no desire to become leaders in the USA. The Chinese are content to be the world’s dominant economic power, which they are. While they were using highly competitive capitalism to fly by the USA economically, the US has been sending its troops into American cities to suppress anti-government demonstrations, and its leader has been producing meme coins to increase his wealth while demanding the government give him $250 million of taxpayer dollars. All the while cheered on by what has become of a once proud and patriotic people, now a mere shadow of their fathers.
By their fruits you shall know them.
Look at how the two countries’ political have treated their people inside and outside their country, over the past 70 years.
Would you rather live in a Chinese city or New York City, LA, Baltimore, Detroit, or Chicago? In a nation China is bombing/destabilizing (none) or in one of the many nations NATO is bombing/destabilizing?
Be honest with yourself.
“100% authoritarian surveillance state, ”
This describes NATO. The media is centralised. The elections are rigged. Opposition is controlled. D.C. is run by a caretaker gov representing transnational interests.
It is true that “if you don’t have borders, you don’t have a country”. If your leaders dont pledge primary loyalty to the people within those borders, then you don’t have a country either.
A Princeton study used data to prove D.C. completely ignores opinions of the bottom 90%. IIRC “Gilens” was one of the authors, if you’re interested in searching for it. By setting such a low bar, it’s likely China is more of a democracy — less authoritarian.
USA has major issues, agreed, but people in China, or Russia, or other countries dont have the freedom of speech we’re exercising on sites like this and others in USA, however I agree America is putting this one important freedom it still enjoys at risk through lack of fiscal discipline.
No matter what Trump promises XI cannot and will not trust him. China knows Trump will be gone in three years or less and slightly saner people may follow. China looks ahead several years, USA looks ahead 90 days.
Vance will be a continuation of the same playbook, with a few pages ripped out, and some He will add, but the lines in the sand will still be there imo.
Vance is a sock puppet for Peter Thiel, so the populist window dressing and side treats will be dialed down (with modified, synthetic pseudo-Christianity slathered on in its place, for the lumpen proletariat), and Palantir will see its world vision and projects furthered. What that entails with China, I’m not sure.
Since His earlier days of writing, Thiel has grown up a lot Politically. He knows how to curry favor, has a hint of Ron Paul, and some liberal views he’s been consist, but hesitant through the years. Went Ivy League so that pedigree is built in to be sure. All in All however he is in many ways like Vance, and Thiel openly Supports Vance 100%!
90 days is a bit long. I’d say thirty days max.
Yes.
I don’t see why China would accept an uneasy truce with little to gain. It can only use the rare earth metals cards so many times before new supply is found, and since this is a national emergency across the West you can cut the usual estimates by half.
So, having used this ultimate card, China has to drive a very hard bargain, say being allowed to import EUVs and having tariffs at pre-Trump levels. These will not be acceptable to team Trump, so there could be more escalation from here. Trump noting that the US has better weapons than China is sort of an ominous sign too.
Rare earths are called that because they are both rare and very difficult and expensive to produce. Producing them requires ecologically devastating mining techniques and highly toxic chemicals. China is the big producer because they are willing to sacrifice the health of their people and land. Most democratic countries aren’t. They are extremely difficult to produce in a cost effective way. China has figured out how to do that (at great cost) which is why so many of the products that rely on them are also produced in China. You need China’s vast scale of production to make the production of rare earths economically feasible. My point is: the idea that the USA is going to show those dirty commies a thing or two and just start producing our own at scale is a pipe dream. It will take decades to get to where the Chinese are today. And only with direct government involvement and funding over those decades. Our American economic ideology will never allow us to compete with China on those kinds of terms. So we need to tread far more cautiously with China than Trump is capable of doing.
I doubt China cares so much about exporting to USA any more. D.C. bared its fangs to Beijing too many times. Beijing probably cares more about various sanctions.
it is all words!!
USA trade deficit is still $1 trln
USA budget deficit is still 2 trln, got smaller a bit (=tariffs), but trump happily sent all those money into Israel/Taiwan/ukraine instead of reducing debt!
still same bullsh11it!! WATCHING fox IS UNBEARABLE because of all that trump ass kissing.
today l. ingram congratulated USA w/ record high in dow jones. jesus!!
Trump = Kamala on steroids.
= Kamala on Big Macs
I really worry that he will throw Taiwan under the bus. He absolutely hates their chip domination so I can imagine a backroom deal that offers gradual unwinding of support for Taiwan whilst easing tensions with China.
Well, that’s what he SHOULD do. Why have we let ourselves become dependent on chips built in a Chinese province? Do you want to send your children to prevent China – with its 1.3 billion people – from reuniting with its island province of 24 million?
The US Army War College came up with a great idea in a paper on deterring China from invading Taiwan. What China is after is Taiwan’s 90% monopoly on the manufacture of the world’s most advanced (NOT all ICs) integrated circuits due to the insane tech of the DUTCH machines essential to create them which the Chinese are not allowed to have. Simply threaten to destroy those plants which is trivially easy with cruise missiles launched from submerged US sub(s) 1000 miles from Taiwan. The plants must be 1000 times cleaner from dust than an operating theater and hopeless to mitigate contamination and destruction of the few Dutch machines at the heart of the process would be easy. I’ve heard a CONgressman actually say this in a TV interview and someone relevant in Taiwan says they won’t do that themselves.
The technicians from The Netherlands are over there doing almost continuous advanced maintenance on the machines, which means the Taiwanese do not know how to maintain them, so all you have to do is capture the technicians wearing the wooden shoes and it all eventually stops.
Taiwan and Japan represent lines in the sand for global influence and trade zones. It’s another domino theory, I guess, except that, once Huawei gets wired into a place, it would be data hegemony. The lines on the map are now stand-ins for data hegemony, which is cultural hegemony.
USA stepping away from Taiwan given that chip picture at present, is USA stepping away from east Asia in a not-small way. It might be a Suez Canal moment, very visible and symbolic too, and once Britain was out of there, look where it is now: a foot stool for rich expats, a population of nannies and accountants and money-shifters.
By the time we are independent, a completely pointless goal, China will be making their own advanced lithography machines and advanced chips. And they may even leapfrog to quantum chips. They will make chips better than we do, and they will be able to make them for far less money. Their goal is to market their products to 7.6 billion people; our goal is to market our very expensive products of varying quality to 340 million enslaved somewhat elderly people (no longer free to buy what they want). Regardless of the relative quality of our manufactured products.
Yep always America first! Forget one of the best democracies in SE Asia with a really vibrant young work force.
I think you have summed up why America will become increasingly irrelevant in the world with a sod all others attitude like that.
A week old. Probably still relevant.
https://www.unz.com/bhua/climbing-the-escalation-ladder/
In its embargo of chip technology against China, the US utilized the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to block chip export to China if non-US made chips use any American technology, software, or equipment somewhere along the supply chain.
In essence, the FDPR allows US to claim jurisdiction to any products US technology touches even if it is made overseas such as the case with TSMC and ASML. The rule gives the US extraterritorial reach.
With the new rare earth restrictions, China flips the logic back to the US. Beijing has announced any non-Chinese companies operating anywhere must obtain Beijing’s approval to export rare earth magnets or semiconductors if those products contain Chinese original rare earth, or if they are produced using Chinese rare earth technology, process or equipment
Bessent was crying like a b$tch when China used the same tactics on the U.S.
Bessent seems to have ceded his brain, foresight, and cojones to Trump. I thought he might be an influence, but he is an apologist. Trump’s personality force field face-to-face is formidable.
He would have, if only he had any.
Some people say nice things to disarm you, before they attack you. Some people even kill official negotiators and diplomats, so they can claim there’s no one to negotiate with.
Trump is rapidly moving the US to one world Govt.
All the rest is deception.
wake up folks
Where’s Seal Team Six…when you really need them?
This is too much fun. This is like Ming the Merciless and the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882.
From Oct. 14, ships operated or owned by Chinese entities, as well as those built in China and operated by non-Chinese companies, could be charged up to five times a year for their voyages to the US.
Noting that: China builds over half of the world’s new ships, with estimates in 2024 and early 2025 showing a share of between 51% and 62% of new orders and deliveries.
USA’s micro wee wee by comparison: The United States builds a very small percentage of new ships, with estimates around 0.1% to 0.2% of global commercial shipbuilding tonnage
Holy Yellow Peril Batman, slap some more tariffs quick!
This is the same guy who said earlier this year he loves Medicaid and won’t touch it.
“Trump said he would veto the bill if it includes cuts to Medicaid while adding, ‘but they’re not cutting it.’ ”
He went on to sign the cuts into law. As usual, actions speak louder than words.
“I know nothing about Project 2025,” Trump insisted in July 2024. “I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
He knew nothing about it and disagreed with some of it. Not sure how one manages that.
When one looks at Lenin, for example, the Bolshevik party’s claims to follow some ideology or “principles” over time became simply the following of Lenin, improvising, winging it from project to project. Lenin had a lot of luck, like the timely collapse of Germany in 1918, which kept Germany from effectively devouring the weakened Russia.
In Trump’s case though, I would say the USA is following Trump’s improvising, paired with project 2025, which has very methodical ideologue super-nerds (who grew up in intellectually cloistered think tanks), the latter with serious expertise in the sausage-making end of government. There is no way Trump thinks up all these initiatives seizing attention in the domestic news cycle. But the Project 2025 types seem to have no grip on Trump’s utterly frolicsome foreign policy, which more purely reflects his ADHD style. There, only when steadier hands like Kushner’s are around, anything at all gets done. The durability of that too, remains in question. Kushner’s initiatives have shifted things, but are still wobbly. It’s all made crazy by Orange Guy’s attention span.
On a more serious note: Why would XI trust Trump?
There are no countries that trust Trump.
Trade with the US will continue to decline.
As we have elections every 4 years and there can be extreme changes, we will not be trusted regardless of which “side” is in power.
It is such classic logic: building trust (and reputation) takes time and repeat consistent performances. And destroying it takes a few missteps. And the USA’s governance is not up to this task, in these times. One cannot cobble together destroyed trust, except over an ever-longer time span, if ever. So the only way out may become, I hate to say this, a capitulating USA on trust: being dictated terms to us: being a bully, or being bullied are the only options we have left. The process was underway, but Trump has gone pedal to the metal on it every day. He has destroyed what we had as a rep, in months.
Emperor Trump has no clothes…
And ugly cankles!
XI should wear very dark sunglasses to protect his eyes from seeingTrumps hideous orange face and bloated whale flesh. Can’t unsee that!
See SouthPark! Incredibly funny!
“Cankles” — Hillary already earned that name.
Maybe Trump can be “Son of Cankles”? “Cankles Junior”? “King Cankles”? Imagine a “No King Cankles” protest. That’s a protest sign I’d carry.
This is the world of sarcastic surfaces Trump gave us. You are playing on his gameboard.
Anyone who believes anything Trump says is not smart.
Donald Trump has supported several liberal policies.
Trump advocated for a $1 trillion infrastructure investment and proposing paid family leave for new parents.
Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, over its impact on American workers.
Trump proposed a $1 trillion infrastructure plan aimed at rebuilding roads, bridges, and railways.
Trump supports Paid Family Leave.
Trump suggested implementing six weeks of paid maternity leave for biological mothers, a significant shift from traditional Republican stances. This proposal was later expanded to include “new parents.
Trump signed bills promoting women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), directing NASA .
Trumps administration reported record low unemployment rates for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and women.
These points illustrate some of the more liberal-leaning aspects of Trump’s policies and statements throughout his political career.
Not only do I believe Him, in this instance, but He’s smart too!
As much as I believe in the Easter Bunny and/or the moon being made out of green cheese. TACO strikes again is a distinct possibility of another trump capitulation.
That’s King Taco….
We’ll probably end up where we started on Jan19 only with no access to rare earths and China not buying anything from American farmers.
Yep. This is George Costanza level negotiation.
Are these the same U.S. farmers and ranchers Trump intends to screw over by buying massive amounts of lean, possibly diseased, Argentinian beef in order to save the equally incompetent Argentinian government from its own voters? Are trillions of pesos likewise going to save Trump’s incompetent government from its voters. A pesos dividend? Like voters getting dividend checks for one million pesos on election day?
Overpromise?!? But my trump healthcare plan is amazing!