Trump spun the tariff wheel of fortune for the second time today. This time, it landed on “soon”. 
Tariffs Coming Soon
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says Auto, Pharma Tariffs Coming Soon, but Doesn’t Mention April 2
President Trump said tariffs on industrial sectors such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals would be forthcoming but declined to say whether they would be announced April 2, the day he previously slated to unveil the industrial levies.
The U.S. will announce automotive tariffs “very shortly,” and will unveil pharmaceutical tariffs “at some point,” Trump said Monday during a cabinet meeting, without offering further details.
The administration a day earlier had indicated sectoral tariffs likely wouldn’t be announced on April 2, though the White House would still impose reciprocal levies that day seeking to equalize U.S. tariffs with the ones charged by other nations. The administration is also expected to take other trade barriers, such as value-added taxes, into account when implementing its reciprocal tariffs.
Trump had also teased tariffs on semiconductors and agricultural products that day.
The reciprocal duties are expected to hit targeted countries with higher tariffs on April 2, but a White House spokesman said officials were still weighing which other tariffs to unveil, and when.
The Biden administration had granted Chevron a license to resume operations in Venezuela in 2022, after the first Trump administration had barred the company from the Latin American country during a “maximum pressure” campaign to oust Venezuela’s leader, strongman Nicolás Maduro.
The Treasury Department said Chevron’s general license didn’t allow the company to pay any taxes or royalties to Venezuela or export oil to anywhere other than the U.S.
The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for additional details. Chevron declined to comment.
Among the countries that import Venezuelan crude are China, India, Spain and Malaysia.
Trump Announces 25 Percent Tariffs on Countries that Buy Venezuela Oil
Earlier today I noted Trump Announces 25 Percent Tariffs on Countries that Buy Venezuela Oil
I eagerly await Trump’s major announcement for Venezuela to be the 53rd state.
So, instead of the US getting oil from Canada, we may get it from Venezuela.
And instead of Canada shipping oil to the US, it will ship oil to China, India, Spain and Malaysia.
This makes perfect sense to Trump, but to no one who can think.
These supply change reconfigurations will cost time and money. But they will be necessary because Canada can no longer consider the US a reliable trading partner.
Meanwhile, Trump sucks up to Maduro, just like Biden did.
Making Sense of Maximum Pressure
Maximum pressure now applies to Canada, not Venezuela. This makes perfect sense.
Q: Why?
A: Because it’s Trump doing it, silly, not Biden.
Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need”
On February 2, I asked Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False?
By volume, we are reasonably close. But by grades of oil US refiners need, we aren’t. Here are the details.
Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?
On March 22, I asked Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?
The answer to this question is seemingly obvious, but ….
But “Trump Considers Extending Chevron License to Pump Oil in Venezuela”
I sarcastically commented “This makes perfect sense because Venezuela is a much better neighbor than Canada.”
Addendum – Bonus Third Spin of the Wheel
WSJ: President Trump said that he might soften reciprocal tariffs he plans to impose on U.S. trading partners next month, and that some nations might be exempt.
“I may give a lot of countries breaks,” Trump told reporters Monday in the Oval Office. He said the reciprocal tariffs could stop short of his pledge to equalize U.S. duties with rates other nations charge.
“I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us,” Trump said.
Damn, this conflicts with his previous comments on using tariffs to fund the deficits and not giving breaks.
However, it is perfectly consistent with his statements on flexibility as discussed in Trump Postpones “Liberation Day” to Focus on the “Dirty 15”
Key Word Flexibility
Proving beyond a shadow of a doubt how flexible he is, no one knows month-to-month, week-to-week, day-to-day, or even hour-to-hour what Trump will do.
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Autos, Oil, and China have all been on-and-off, and scaled up and down depending primarily on what mood Trump is in.
Trump is even flexible on being flexible as this important quote shows. “Sometimes there’s flexibility, there’ll be flexibility.”
We have gone from tariff tiers to tariffs for all 200 countries the US trades with, flexible of course, maybe.
Drats! Complete Liberation Postponed
I was ready with firecrackers and blowhorns. I even have a Canadian flag to burn as part of my great liberation personal ceremony plan.
But it’s important to be flexible, even on flexibility itself, so that no one can count on anything, ever.
Trust is so overrated.
Mish, when Trump does a deal with Iran it’s great, but if Obama does, it sucks.
When Biden bombs Houthi, it’s a feeble effort; when Trump does the same thing, the ground shakes much more violently, using the same bombs.
And so with tariffs. When Trump does anything, it’s great by definition.
NB: Megalomania can lead to psychosis. It’s in the DSM V
These Mad Max shoot-from-the-hip tariffs will result in US trading partners developing trading relationships around the US, and avoiding the US as much as possible.
Very inflationary final nail in the coffin of globalization.
Let’s hope, it doesn’t usher in the next leg of economic depression.
I did a quick Google Search ten days ago and could not find an EASY-TO-READ table of tariffs. I suspect that TRUMPCO will not want that published, right?
Has anyone else noticed that they are NOT publishing such material, even the FAR-LEFT MEDIA TYPES, because the do not WANT information out there that proves the case one way or the other.
They (THE REDS) do not want Trump proven wrong and the BLUES do not want ANY INFORMATION floating around.
A DEAD MEDIA has not thought of it or the mainstream Propaganda Machinery is hiding it because it would prove TRUMPCO RIGHT OR WRONG.
They cannot tolerate a well-informed POPULACE.
Thanks to Mish for his hard work.
Use the freedom of information act and get it yourself. Then you can publish it for the world to see. Unfortunately, Biden left Trump with exceptionally high growth, high wage growth, low unemployment, and massive investments in American factories. So it will be hard to tell if Trump is right.
Is it true that Venezuela has the LARGEST OIL (PROVEN?) Reserves on the Globe?
Yes. Venezuela 1. Canada 3. US 11.
https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-reserves-by-country/
Though Trump will tell you we have more oil than any other country.
Thanks, Papa.
That list lumps all reserves together, shale, tar, conventional, recoverable or not. Not very useful.
Venezuelan oil is heavy, comparable to tar sand oil, and difficult to recover.
No. Those are proven “recoverable” reserves.
Also, heavy oil is what our refineries use. We export a lot of our light shale oil because our refineries cannot use it all.
Trump needs to put unlimited tariffs on everything. Think about the industries that will return to the US when that happens. Amiright!!!!
I agree. It’s a real world economic experiment. Lets tariff everything as much as possible and see what happens.
Trump says tariffs will bring back manufacturing and jobs, pay off the deficit, pay down the debt, eliminate income taxes, make SS solvent, and usher in a Golden Age.
I say go for it. Lets see if he is right.
And if he is wrong, we can at least learn a lesson.
It would or will be an expensive experiment, screwing around with a trade war. What a mess.
Too bad, even if the experiment succeeds, Trumps will not see the fruits of it. Even if the premise was correct, it took decades of globalization to get to this point. It will take longer to reverse it if at all.
Yes, and Trump is doing all of this by executive fiat instead of creating lasting laws. The next President will just undo it all. But it does make Trump look “strong” which is all the American people actually want. People like to be on team strong.
The headline: “Hyundai to invest $20 Billion in US.” This is what Mish misses about tariffs. It is not just the actual collection of a tariff that is the benefit. A tariff encourages foreign manufacturers to invest in the US, resulting in massive employment, and increasing local, state and federal tax revenues. All because of tariffs.
I don’t miss anything.
Which do you want: Collect massive tariff revenue to balance the budget, bring jobs back, or reduce inflation?
Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
https://mishtalk.com/economics/lutnick-says-tariffs-can-eliminate-the-irs-and-balance-the-budget/
Reciprocal Tariffs
We have an annual trade deficit of $918 billion.
Listen carefully.
Team Trump proposes $918 billion in “reciprocal tariffs” to make the trade deficit go away. Team Trump also proposes collecting $7 trillion in tariffs to balance the budget and get rid of the IRS.
I would love to hear a detailed explanation of exactly how that works.
Trumps Claims
1. Tariffs will increase revenue enough to balance the budget
2. Tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US
3. Tariffs will reduce inflation
4. Tariffs will increase exports
Conflicting Economic Madness
Points 1 and 2 conflict. Tariffs cannot simultaneously bring back manufacturing and raise enough revenue to balance the budget.
Points 2 and 3 conflict. Since the US is the world’s highest cost producer of goods thanks to unions, tariffs will not reduce inflation.
Points 2 and 4 conflict. Since the US is the world’s highest cost producer of goods and other countries will retaliate, tariffs will not increase exports.
Trump might succeed on 2. At the expense of increased cost on the vehicles and not collecting tariffs. I have written about this many times.
If I’m not mistaken, Canada is charging tariffs over 200% to all US dairy products. Wouldn’t it be easier to your readers if you published a chart with the tariffs other countries charge on US products too? Your line of articles on tariffs are all one-sided.
You are not mistaken. But you are only listening to one side of the story. Here is the reality:
Canada is just copying what the US does on dairy quotas and tariffs.
The US actually has more access to the Canadian dairy market than Canada has access to the US dairy market. Which was a big win for Trump when he negotiated USMCA. The US has access to 3.6% of Canada’s dairy market tariff free. After reaching the 3.6% quota, 200+% kick in. Which is why we never exceed the quota.
Similarly, Canada has access to much less than 1% of the US dairy market. If they exceed the quota, US tariffs of 200+% kick in.
From Brian on March 6.
You didn’t mention that the U.S. also applies 200%+ tariffs (called TRQs) on imports of Canadian dairy products that are above quota. The first reference link below describes a potential U.S. tariff of 281% on imported cheese from (e.g. Canada). BTW, nobody pays those extreme tariffs; they exist just to efficiently enforce the quota. Another thing you didn’t mention is that Canada actually imports more dairy products as a share of its economy than the U.S. does, i.e. the great free trader America is more protectionist of its dairy market than Canada is!
(Note: These references date back to 2018, prior to/during the USMCA negotiations, but little has changed on the U.S. side. On the Canadian side however, Canada gave up more of its dairy market to U.S. imports as part of the USMCA agreement, after a lot of bullying. It now looks like this was a very big mistake, because the “dairy bullies” are back, and more greedy than ever! It’s now clear that the U.S. will keep demanding a higher and higher share of the Canadian dairy market, while giving up no meaningful share of its own market in return.)
https://www.agrifoodecon.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/us%20cheese%20imports%20final%20draft%2021%20june%202018.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-trumped-up-charge-against-canadian-dairy-tariffs/
(First post waiting for approval. Will try again with one link instead of two.)
You are not mistaken. But you are only listening to one side of the story. Here is the reality:
Canada is just copying what the US does on dairy quotas and tariffs.
The US actually has more access to the Canadian dairy market than Canada has access to the US dairy market. Which was a big win for Trump when he negotiated USMCA. The US has access to 3.6% of Canada’s dairy market tariff free. After reaching the 3.6% quota, 200+% kick in. Which is why we never exceed the quota.
Similarly, Canada has access to much less than 1% of the US dairy market. If they exceed the quota, US tariffs of 200+% kick in.
From Brian on March 6.
You didn’t mention that the U.S. also applies 200%+ tariffs (called TRQs) on imports of Canadian dairy products that are above quota. The first reference link below describes a potential U.S. tariff of 281% on imported cheese from (e.g. Canada). BTW, nobody pays those extreme tariffs; they exist just to efficiently enforce the quota. Another thing you didn’t mention is that Canada actually imports more dairy products as a share of its economy than the U.S. does, i.e. the great free trader America is more protectionist of its dairy market than Canada is!
(Note: These references date back to 2018, prior to/during the USMCA negotiations, but little has changed on the U.S. side. On the Canadian side however, Canada gave up more of its dairy market to U.S. imports as part of the USMCA agreement, after a lot of bullying. It now looks like this was a very big mistake, because the “dairy bullies” are back, and more greedy than ever! It’s now clear that the U.S. will keep demanding a higher and higher share of the Canadian dairy market, while giving up no meaningful share of its own market in return.)
https://www.agrifoodecon.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/us%20cheese%20imports%20final%20draft%2021%20june%202018.pdf
Here is the second link.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-trumped-up-charge-against-canadian-dairy-tariffs/
I see… so it’s an issue far more complicated than the ordinary kneejerk reactions from either side. Let’s see how it plays out.
Yes. Our trade with Canada is mostly fair. Over 97% of our trade with Canada is tariff free already. When Trump negotiated USMCA, both sides gave up a little, but Canada probably gave up a little more than the US did. Trump even bragged about getting more access to Canadian dairy. Yet now he complains about it.
Another thing Trump won in USMCA was automatic renegotiation every 6 years. It was going to be renegotiated next year anyway.
But now Trump has broken USMCA and placed new tariffs on a lot of the exports that Canada sends our way.
The strange thing are tariffs on things we must import, like oil, aluminum and potash. Why put tariffs on things we cannot produce here? It just raises costs for US companies who must pay the tariffs.
Good suggestion. I did a quick Google Search ten days ago and could not find an EASY-TO-READ table of tariffs. I suspect that TRUMPCO will not want that published, right?
Just so you all know, I have a balanced Perspective on Politics, Politicians and POLITICAL MANEUVERING.
I HATE THEM ALL and have ceased to vote for 29 years now. I cannot decide between Party of BULLSHIT (REDS) or the PARTY OF THE BRAIN-DEAD BULLSHITTERS (BLUES).
I tend to believe that they are all in a SINGLE ROOM DAILY (the “leadership types” like Johnson, McConnell, Schumer, Pelosi, etc.) and they DRINK the good shit (on us) and Smoke the Cubans (on us) and Order Steak Tartar (ON US).
ALL ON US, and ALL BULLSHIT CIRCUS WORK – all of the TIME!
Yes. When it comes to tariffs, Trump screams about how the US is the good guy and everyone else is the bad guy. And he misinforms or outright lies about the numbers to suit his narrative.
He never mentions that the US has 25% tariffs on imported trucks while Europe only has 10% tariffs on imported trucks.
Or the 14.5% tariff on Canadian lumber.
Or the 200%+ tariffs on Canadian dairy products (which Canada then matches).
Or that we tend to be the ones who keep adding tariffs to items that are already tariff free, such as aluminum and steel.
Trump says he wants free and fair trade, but his actions say something else.
You are mistaken.
Those tariffs are not actually collected, they are nominal tariffs which kick in above certain quotas, but trade is below those thresholds.
Looking at total tariffs collected, insignificant compared to total trade.
But still higher on the US side than the Canadian, so it’s all tilting at windmills.
Great analysis, Mish. This should become a POINTEDLY SPECIFIC article on the Tariff Madness. There are TRUMPCO LOVERS that likely will not WANT to KNOW how Tariffs will “work.” OR NOT.
Sure, we can import cheap Chinese vehicles, but that would decimate US manufacturers and suppliers and possibly lead to recession. We have already seen how shifting manufacturing to China decimated Midwest manufacturing and the economies of the surrounding cities. Tariffs protect our economy.
I wonder how those midwest states are liking 10% tariffs on the 3 mbpd of oil they receive every day from Canada.
Point 1 is correct as far as increasing revenue, but enough revenue to balance the budget is not possible.
Point 2 is absolutely correct
Point 3 I do not see how this is possible.
Point 4 could be correct if China made a concerted effort to buy more from the US, but they do not want to become too reliant on the US. Of course, China wants to sell as much as possible to the US, while buying as little as possible.
Hyundai announced this decision years ago and was likely a response to the supply chain shitfuckery from the wonderful covid years when president celery stick and his boy wonder pete buttigieg should have been working on addressing severe supply chain shocks instead of staying on paternity leave and passing out on the beach.
Tariffs up the wazoo! Maybe, as some here suggested, that it’s all part of the Republican plan to crash the economy now, so they can “save” the economy in time to win the mid-term elections.
Brilliant!
Apparently, trump wakes up every morning and tries to determine which way the wind is blowing and then decides whether or not to follow.
Every day is a new day.
Rinse and repeat……….”keep ’em’ guessing.”
There’s a bit of scare story circulating that the IRS expects 10% less revenue – a $500 billion shortfall, compared to last year.
Hopefully the new tariffs will make up the shortfall, which amounts to over $3000 per taxpayer.
Slow the roll, people. It takes time for tariffs to show what revenue to expect and how foreign and domestic businesses will react. Calling daily results when results should be measured in years is silly.
Correct
Curiously, Trump was not bright enough to figure this out which is why he changes his mind, sometimes multiple times a day.
And what was the outcome when Trump 2016 did tariffs on China (which Biden kept)? Give us your detailed analysis here.
Of course the left kept the tariffs. They benefit American labor unions more than anything. Some of the lefts biggest supporters. Funny we don’t see any Democrats threatening to sue over tariffs.
Apparently negotiations are still taking place since he didn’t mention April 2. Could he be postponing the tariff decision till after Canada’s election? It would make sense.
What “negotiations” do you envision happening? And what is the purpose when Trump can renege on any deal at any tantrum time for any reason?
It actually gets painful to read these posts. Yup we had the Bloviator and Null Mind, what a choice? I am not disagreeing with Tariffs, but its off the cuff, like shooting a kid with a gun at cans.There is no planning, consulting, its total emotion. So he does not drink, smoke or do drugs. But trust me REVENGE is like a drug, total immersion. The Free Press had an editorial the ‘Good, Bad and Ugly’, yup, many mind opening realizations have happened regarding robot pen, but now we have another side. There is no restraint, we can thank the Democrats for their enteral prosecution! Revenge is like a drug. Be Kind, that is what Americans should live by.
I think tariff and trade policies are determined by whoever was last in the room with President Trump..or at least if feels that way sometimes.
Is this getting old?
When all you got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Brilliant!
The US Administration is destroying the business case for business, not only with the US by other trading partners, but also within the US by US businesses. The entrepreneurial spirit is being destroyed, by uncertainty. Sad !
Nothing on the gaudy services pmi number? Just tariffs talk.
A quick check shows I commented on the Services PMI – precisely ZERO times in 2024 other than ISM services at least 20 times.
So it is nothing I routinely comment on