Think about your answer and why. Here few snips from the latest Nate Silver Bulletin. 
I am a subscriber to the Silver Bulletin and find his thoughts refreshingly unbiased.
One thing I have noticed is Republicans tend to believe him when Trump is in the lead, and Democrats the opposite.
A Word About Probabilities
I consistently hear comments “Why should I believe Silver, he was wrong in 2016?”
Is Silver supposed to be perfect? Anyone who makes predictions or forecasts odd is going to be wrong.
Also, it’s debatable if Silver was wrong. He posted odds. That is not the same as a predictions.
The odds of a coin toss coming up heads twice in a row is 25 percent. If I bet against that, and it happens, was I wrong?
I think Silver was wrong but in a much different way. I thought (and said so at the time), that his probability of Hillary winning was too high. I had Hillary at 55-45. People tell me “Mish, you were wrong”. Sheeeh.
Only a last minute statement by FBI director James Comey on Hillary’s emails gave the win to Trump. Yet, people tell me they “knew” Trump would win.
No they didn’t. They were lucky.
High or Low?
Q: Is the lead chart giving Trump a 61.5 percent chance high or low?
A: I don’t know, you don’t know, and Nate Silver doesn’t know.
My guess (based of the current data only) is high. My guess (based off where I think the economy will be in November) is about right.
It’s the latter that Silver is attempting to project.
Not a Nowcast
Silver’s model is not a Nowcast. It it was, I think he would be closer to 50-50.
A lot of things can happen between now and November in the debates and the economy.
The Electoral College Bias Has Returned With a Vengeance
Please consider the Silver Bulletin report The Electoral College Bias Has Returned With a Vengeance
There’s been a lot of talk lately about our model’s convention bounce adjustment, and that’s understandable. Harris is still ever-so-slightly ahead in our polling averages in enough states for her to win 270 electoral votes — but she’s slightly behind in our forecast of those states, mostly because the model assumes that polls conducted just after the DNC are likely to be relatively favorable for Harris.
I think the adjustment is highly defensible, but if you don’t like it, don’t fret: it will begin to work its way out of the model over the course of the next week or two. And if you really hate it, you can always just stick to our “raw” polling averages instead, which aren’t subject to the convention bounce adjustment at all.
The problem for Harris is that Donald Trump has been gaining on her in our polling averages, too — at least in the most important Electoral College states. If, say, Harris had gained 1 point, when the convention bounce adjustment was expecting her to gain 2 points, that would look like more of a rounding error in the model. Instead, though, she’s actually losing ground since the start of the convention in swing state polls.
Why Is Trump Ahead?
Harris is leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Yet, Silver has Trump’s odds of winning over 60 percent. Mercy!
Hopefully, this permanently removes any charges of bias against Silver. He is rooting for Harris, big time.
My keep-it-simple explanation is that Trump is ahead because the bounce for Harris was not as big as the model expected.
GDPNow vs Silver Bulletin
GDPNow is an Atlanta Fed Nowcast (not a forecast like the Silver Bulletin).
But a very similar thing happens frequently: The GDPNowcast rises on bad data or falls on seemingly good data.
Those familiar with the nuances of the Nowcast might have a better grasp of what’s happening with the Silver Bulletin.
For discussion, please see Recapping GDPNow Third-Quarter Nowcast Changes, What’s Going on and Why
Curiously, it is not the data that matters, but rather what the economic data does vs the model’s expectation of the data.
Debates, Economy, Mideast War Escalation?
I do not know who will do better in the debates. Nor do I have any idea what political bombshells might turn up for team Harris or Team Trump.
Bombshells are very rare and the word is so overused my immediate reaction when I hear the word is to toss the idea in the ashcan. Comey was a genuine bombshell. There aren’t many.
My edge, if I have one, is in the economy.
Recessions are not good for the incumbent party and I think we are in one.
This is where I think Silver is correct about the odds, but perhaps for the wrong reasons.
His economic forecast is much better than mine. I have asked twice how his model would change if his forecast was recession, but have not received an answer.
A Complaint
My one huge Silver Bulletin complaint is if you think you will get an answer to anything as a subscriber, you won’t.
There is no repository of questions and only a very poor way of asking them, with zero acknowledgement. 300 people might ask the same thing and you won’t even know.
I subscribe because I get value anyway.
To answer my own question (sort of), by election time the state of the economy will be known. The polls will be 100% of the data and all guessing (other than how accurate the polls are), will be factored in.
Meanwhile, however, a worsening recession is not yet factored into the polls so I would be curious as to what Silver’s forecast would be if it was.
That’s the unanswered question.
Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in August
For discussion, please see Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in August
My post is complicated, but Silver would understand immediately.
A modified McKelvey recession indicator with no false positives or false negatives since 1953 suggests we are in recession now.
Can someone elucidate why any European-American would vote for Kamala and the Democrats? They openly despise them, treat them as tax donkeys and scapegoats for all the woes of the world, and offer them nothing but second class citizenship based upon the implementation of codified discrimination in all aspects of life.
Extending that to any actual American, the Democrats place them at best pari passu with any uninvited refugee without any track record of adding value or contributing to American society…all to lock in a perpetual Democrat majority and one party state in perpetuity.
Maybe they don’t want to see another billionaire tax cut? Or another pissing match with the fat guy in North Korea? Or another riot in Congress?
Right, riots in congress like J6. Unlike BLM riots or other democrats rioting in various state capitals when they don’t get their way. We have a spending problem, not a tax shortage problem my friend. I would prefer a pissing match with fat guy in North Korea than driving up costs and inflation via a pissing contest with a real threat like Putin and Russia that could lead to WW3.
And in exchange for those things, second class citizenship for themselves and their progeny behind anyone with a pulse with the right level of skin color.
Redefining “stupid is as stupid does”:
Enjoy your writing… please check your math when you say “… The odds of a coin toss coming up heads twice in a row is 25 percent.”; don’t believe this is true; the flip result should remain at 50%; just a thought…
-jdp (Parnitzke)
My math is correct: The odds of a head coming up once is 50%.
The odds of it coming up twice in a row is 25%
HH
HT
TT
TH
1 in 4
25 percent
The odds of heads or tails coming up twice in a row is 50%
2 in the above four cases
There is not a lot in Comey’s background to suggest his actions regarding Hillary were to assist Trump. IMHO, it came down to there wasn’t a choice. The wrist slap was the least he could do and maintain the facade of being unbiased. The risk was that if Trump did win, Hillary would be doing jail time. There was ample evidence to convict, from what was released by the hackers to destroying her server/govt documents.
As such, it was less of a bombshell. Of the two candidates, Trump was the less despicable, despite efforts to paint him as Asmodeus.
Harris mostly has support of the hard core left. Most democrats that will end up voting for her will do so out of a anti-Trump cast. Harris’ record (going all the way back to the beginning of her career) and chameleon-like personality is disgusting.
I thought 2020 had the worst two candidates our country has seen. Well… welcome to 2024. This is like a bad movie that was released with a sequel that is even worse.
Either way, our economy has hit a wall and a flood of dollars will soon be flowing.
Got Gold???
Not so fast. You underestimate the power of idiocy.
Sorry. What you call as the “hardcore left” (and I consider myself to be one) would support Jill Stein and not Harris. Harris has the support of the TDS-afflicted liberal crowd who are actually right-wing in terms of economic and foreign policies but provide lip service to the actual left (without ever actually doing anything that is meaningful or substantive).
No recession in Sacramento, CA. Only inflation. Jobs are plentiful and home prices holding or down 10 % in some instances
Despite the reporting on tech layoffs, where I live, above Silicon Valley and below SF, the new cars are prolific (based on my view of license plate number progression), signs of houses for sale are uncommon, large construction projects are going on, grocery stores are crowded (but Target isn’t, was like a ghost store yesterday!) and few people appear to be complaining.
If people want a Poll about the election how about including all the die hard dems who are becoming Trump supporters.
Dershowitz is latest and only 6 months ago he said he could never vote for Trump.
The more people get exposed to Harris and Dem agenda the worst it is gonna be in November for that fractured party.
The report clearly stated he was now an INDEPENDENT voter and will reveal whom he supports on November 1st. He cited the surge in anti-Semitism among the Democrat Party leaders as motivating him to take action. Now maybe there will be enough shift toward Trump among Jewish voters (as with Blacks and Latinos) to earn Trump a second term as POTUS. Prominent people don’t act in a vacuum. They either value the public’s opinion or just happen to resonate with the public. Based on Dershowitz’ action, there have to be many Jewish voters who are fed up with the DNC but have kept quiet.
I did not just post that out of thin air. Double checked and article I read was not to be found. Several others do say he is independent and dumped Dems.
Am not going to waste a lot of time searching.
There is the woman from California who was Senate Dems caucus chair and California Senate Majority leader Gloria Romero.
“I changed my voting registration today to Republican which has, under Donald Trump. become the champion of working people, the big tent. I will vote for Donald Trump this Fall.”
RFK Jr. and Gabbard have opened the door for those whose personal viewpoints no longer sync with those who control Dem party.
If Jews had given up on Harris, she wouldn’t have raised the huge amount of money she did recently, 3x team Trump.
Let’s see the list.
Well, Dershowitz ditched Harris because he felt she is not sufficiently pro-genocide. And that’s something that truly astonishes me because Biden-Harris et al have done everything to aid the genocide and nothing to stop it. I just can’t imagine how anyone can be more soaked in blood than they are.
If Trump would focus solely on illegal immigration and how they are taking US citizens jobs, this presidential race would be over.
Why illegal immigration is not the A number ONE, 100% of the tim, presidential issue?
The affluent want and like to be served.
Kiss Americana goodbye.
“Why illegal immigration is not the A number ONE, 100% of the tim, presidential issue?”
Because it’s only an issue for the bigots and racists. Every business owner is begging for more (and cheaper) labor. This country has been in a demographic death spiral for the last 60 years, everyone saw this coming and it’s coming to a head now with 60 million boomers heading for the socialist welfare line then the graveyard.
When it comes to immigration there are only two outcomes:
1. Stop immigration and kick immigrations out = the rapid “Detroit-ization” of America. Watch every city and county across America decay rapidly. No more roads, bridges, houses, etc. And forget about getting service at a restaurant.
2. Keep immigration going and the apocalypse is delayed but you will watch the “Brazilification” of America but at least you’ll have stuff continue to get done.
Those are the only two possibilities if you understand demographics, reproduction life cycles and the current state of affairs.
And if you are a socialist leech on social security, you better hope immigration isn’t stopped because you can kiss your social security check and medicare and all the healthcare bye bye.
It’s already a crisis in 2028….
https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/healthcare-worker-shortage-2028/725865/
Oh you mean the Government subsidized illegals who have housing, food and clothes given to them so they can then displace Americans not afforded that support.
Same Americans who were born here but can not afford to live here as they are unable to earn a living wage.
Yes, what happened was the government subsidized walmart workers are all running out due to aging. You know those old jokes about Walmart greeters being elderly, well they don’t even have those anymore. Heck, you have to check yourself out and bag your own stuff. It keeps going this way, you’re gonna have to haul your own stuff from the warehouse or fly to China and get it yourself.
Just watch what is happening all around you WITHOUT kicking the immigrants out then do the math, it’s not that hard.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/how-immigration-remade-the-u-s-labor-force-716c18ee
Almost all the population growth is coming from immigration, that’s where all the economic growth is coming from too, the politicians know this so that’s why the border never gets fixed nor will it ever get fixed. The capitalism machine needs fresh labor to grind, it needs new suckers will no debt and clean balance sheets so they can load them up credit cards, mortgage loans and auto loans. Then their kids will get student loans.
All you have to decide is how to profit from this bonanza.
“It keeps going this way, you’re gonna have to haul your own stuff from the warehouse or fly to China and get it yourself.”
That’s what Costco and Temu is for!
Yeh well that is the problem, for you it is about money. Anything goes as long as you benefit personally.
Most Americans have a different viewpoint. Come to this Country because you can self support and contribute to the Nations prosperity.
Come in Legally and not by breaking Laws as your first step.
NO tax payer is begging to have their tax dollars used to give illegals free food, free healthcare, free housing, free down payment assistance, free pass on paying taxes, free anything.
The tax payer is irrelevant, haven’t you figured that out yet? It’s all about profits, go out and get some.
Wrong! Plenty here in CA are. SAD…
FYI, the low skilled illegal immigrant from the south of the border is the LAST person you need in the US–they will suck on the public teat. You NEED the smart Asians from the top research universities.
If we reduced government employment by 25% we’d have more productivity and people to do your menial jobs.
And if you want more skilled people, invite them from South Africa, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe on a competitive basis.
I guess it’s racist and bigoted to want your country to be for your fellow countrymen. Wow, what hate for the folks here.
What jobs are illegal undereducated immigrants taking? Burger flippers, janitors, the sign holders at a street repaving? [lol]
You’re right. A lot of these are entry jobs for America’s uneducated (graduates of public education.)
Less welfare, more work solves your problem. The result is a NET gain to the country.
I agree with you on this.
According to postings on X, Trump has announced a focus on ‘government effectiveness’, to be headed by Elon Musk. That alone is worth a vote (of confidence).
LOL. I recall that Trump was going to clear “the swamp” in his last term. That didn’t come to fruition, did it?
As for Musk, he is a great “vision” guy but a poor manager. I’d be unsure if he would last a “Scaramucci” before being summarily fired by Trump!
Sounds about right. The debate next Tues will go one of three ways:
It’s Trump’s to lose. If he stays away from the ad hominem attacks, he’ll be fine.
4) Kamala is kidnapped by aliens (space variety) and does not show.
I’m sure Trump will be able to rip defeat from the jaws of victory. Presently though, he seems to be easing it out, so not much of a struggle.
The other aspect to this is how the US economy affects other major world economies in Europe and Asia. Economics is upstream of politics and can drive some leaders to take reckless decisions that can affect the US economy and politics.
I don’t just mean China, there’s a list that includes the likes of Turkey, Iran, Saudi, India, Japan, France, Germany, Poland.
They all have their own pressures and they are all participants in the UST markets and in global trade and global geopolitics.
I’m back from summer sailing vacation, what’d I miss? Trump surging? Lol
I’m reading the headlines on conservative leaning DrudgeReport…
EARLY VOTING BEGINS! FIRST BALLOTS GO OUT IN WHITE HOUSE RACE…
Dramatic influx of cash for Kamala is latest alarm bell for Trump campaign...
She raises nearly three times amount! POLL: +6…
Candidates begin post-Labor Day sprint…
Don repeatedly insults Jews who back Dems…
Evangelical Leader Warns He’s in ‘Grave Danger’ With Christian Voters…
Dick Cheney voting for Harris…
88 corporate leaders endorse HER… 100+ law enforcement officials…
New poll shows Florida, Texas within margin of error?
Dick Cheney voting for Harris? Lol, I must have sailed through an alternative universe portal….
Dick Cheney voting for Harris makes sense – especially if she plans on retaining Sullivan, Blinken and Austin. The endorsement Trump should be proudest of is Dick Cheney’s. Trump should run ads about it.
The Drudge report is a new aggregator.
How many of those articles are from Breitbart, Gateway Pundit, Red State, etc?
The WHOLE SYSTEM, which of course includes liberal MSM, are against Trump.
And the last think anyone should be trusting is ANY poll, whether it’s from FoxNews or 538.
Drudge? Seriously?
Insert Kamala cackle.
Lots of interesting, real news reported by Matt Taibbi nowadays. Praise the ‘light’ of freedom of speech.
GDP NOW is complete garbage. It persistently overstates actual GDP growth and has quarters where every estimate is higher than the actual number. I thought Nate redeemed himself but reading the article reminds me that Nate’s data is as politically poisoned as GDP NOW.
Case in point, the highly respected author of this blog says were are in a recession now while GDPNOW’s latest says were are growing at 2.1%.
Mish has never explained his GDP NOW fetish. I read Mish but tune out anything to do with gdpnow.
In my observations, most Voters be it Republicans or Democrats tend to believe what they want to believe. The Silver Poll, or any other Poll, either strengthens the Voters conviction, or makes the Voter work harder for there side, if they are a true voter that wants change.
I consistently state myself “Why should I believe (Place Pollster Name Here), as he or she, was wrong in (place election Year here)”
Are Pollsters supposed to be perfect? Not by a long shot, but they should be less manipulative in there questions, and more honest in the way they tend to phrase the questions. Voters would be far more willing to participate imo, if they removed the non-hidden agendas, and false and/or misleading statements that they make. Just an honest Poll would be nice to see.
Something like: “Who would you Vote for if the election were held today”? “Trump OR Harris”? SIMPLE!
Posting odds, can’t be wrong, as it’s simply a set of variables to pick from. The outcome can’t even be wrong, as it’s an election, so who is to say, if even possible, who should have Won or Lost? How could they, personal “Opinions” aside?
Q: Is the lead chart giving Trump a 61.5 percent chance high or low?
MY A: Nobody know just yet. I would guess it’s about right (6 out of 10), because I don’t believe/trust in landslides anymore, and that’s far from one, but not overly optimistic or stating it’s over already, which it’s clearly not…
– My keep-it-simple explanation is that Trump is ahead because the bounce for Harris was not as big as the model expected.
> Sounds about right, and very plausible.
– Recessions are not good for the incumbent party and I think we are in one. > As Do I and have for a few Months now…
> Bingo! That could be *Game, Set & Match!!!
The point is that as the economy tightens people increasingly focus on the short-term pain-relief measures, regardless of their positions on other issues. Some people think deeply and analyse; some swallow anything; and some deliberately will a lie into being the truth.
Your way to (vague)…
The point is that as the economy (what part specifically, it matters?) tightens people increasingly focus on the short-term pain-relief measures (can you define what exactly that is?) , regardless of their positions on other issues (what specific issues, it matters?). Some people think deeply and analyse; some swallow anything; and some deliberately will a lie into being the truth. (That applies to all?)…
Well, yes, you could just ask that simple question. And suppose you poll showed Harris winning by 52-48. Then you ask their party affiliation. Suppose that is 60% Democrats? You have to adjust for that.
50 States, 50 of the exact same simple “Yes or No” question. No Narrative, just a mail back answer.
The people don’t get to decide.
Amen. The JRE pod cast with Bret Weinstein talking about THE SYSTEM is chilling.
If CL (crude oil) is doing A-B-C down it will reach $40/$45 in 2025. SPX was up bc the mag 7 were up until June/July. SPX might start with an A-B-C correction, engineered by the mag 7, before rising to a new all time high. Lower rates will turn on wall street afterburner. The odds that Melania will be a widow before Jill Biden are over 60%. If Biden and Obama attend president Trump’s funeral they will bury the D & R hatred that divided our country. President Vance is fully committed to cutting debt. He hates bs. The D will cooperate with him.
“…If CL (crude oil) is doing A-B-C down it will reach $40/$45 in 2025…”
OMG. PapaDave will have a conniption.
…SPX might start with an A-B-C correction… rising to a new all time high..”
Have you seen the P/E rats?
Ha ha ha! TIme for Vance to take over for Trump as Harris did from Biden?
From OK magazine.
“Jaclyn is a pop culture aficionado who is obsessed with The Bachelor, Taylor Swift, Zac Efron, and the Backstreet Boys. She’s covered major red carpet events, including the Tony Awards, the Met Gala, New York Fashion Week, and more. One of her career highlights is when Jeff Goldblum told her she looked like a younger version of Jennifer Lawrence.”
I may be wrong but she looks to be writing for a Left wing audience.
Facts are facts, no?
Not any more, especially with people like you around.
C’mon stinkypoo. You can construct a better attack than that!
Propaganda is propaganda, yes?
So you’re claiming that the reports in the story are lies? Maybe from Russia perhaps? Let’s not forget that Putin recently said he’d rather have Harris as President.
Okay, this is funny. Or you don’t understand Putin humor.
Are these facts or is Trump tying Harris to Biden as she is definitely attempting to distance herself from.
Am I allowed to call Harris a She or say herself?
Harris is an ‘it’ in my view.
I don’t like Harris myself. But I like Trump less and would be more concerned with the damage he could do as President.
LOL
NO prob. Baron reputedly has an IQ of 170. President at 21!
Yeah, yeah I know. Constitution.
He’d be a good CIA Director.
Although I will vote for Trump, I doubt that he will win. Undecided voters will vote based on their financial rewards from Democrats. Student loan forgiveness, EV subsidies, Obamacare subsidies, and many other vote buying schemes will sway undecided voters for Democrats. Abortion still seems the main issue with women voters, breaking heavily for Harris/Walz. Harris/Walz are much more left than Biden. Expect much higher taxes, more open southern borders, and much more vote buying in the next 4 years.
Hwy 30 near me in W. PA was paved twice in six months.
Real Clear Politics has Trump probability of winning at 50.3%
It recently bottomed on 14 August 2024 at 45.4%
Trump doesn’t want it to get too high or the CIA will send another lone wolf to shoot him in the head again.
In psychology, logorrhea or logorrhoea is a communication disorder that causes excessive wordiness and repetitiveness, which can cause incoherency. Logorrhea is sometimes classified as a mental illness, though it is more commonly classified as a symptom of mental illness or brain injury. This ailment is often reported as a symptom of Wernicke’s aphasia, where damage to the language processing center of the brain creates difficulty in self-centered speech. Wikipedia
I think we all know who is afflicted with this disorder.
Eighty-eight corporate leaders endorse Harris in new letter, including CEOs of Yelp, Box
Fri, Sep 6 2024
Key Points
– Eighty-eight corporate leaders signed a new letter Friday endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for president.
– Signers include former 21st Century Fox CEO James Murdoch, Snap Chairman Michael Lynton, Yelp boss Jeremy Stoppelman and Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen.
– If the Democratic nominee wins the White House, they contend, “the business community can be confident that it will have a president who wants American industries to thrive.”
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/harris-endorsed-trump-murdoch-yelp-snap-ripple.html
If we limit ourselves to Fortune 500 companies we get about 6,000 people who can be considered as “corporate leaders”. Since 88 are endorsing Harris, that means Harris is endorsed by 1.47% of all corporate leaders. This is hardly impressive. This reminds me of 2020 when the Republicans said that 283 retired senior military officers backed Trump in a signed letter. Sounds impressive until you learn that there are around 5,000 retired senior military officers.
All that means is that 88 made a public choice. Don’t read more into a number than what it represents.
That being said, how many of the remaining corporate titans have signed onto the Trump bandwagon? I’ll await your list.
Honestly, all the news these days (and I watch FOX regularly) is people supporting Harris and very few of any stature coming out in support of Trump.
People want sanity. Trump doesn’t qualify. And he really does appear to have dementia. If that concern was enough to tank Biden, why not Trump?
Harris won’t be allowed to do anything too radical.
Yes, Jojo, those 88 supporters are very, very meaningful. That clinched it for me.
Why do you think “88 corporate leaders” will tell you the truth and follow through in every respect? Why do you think all the other “corporate leaders” will do the opposite, without announcing it? You do realise it’s all a game, and nothing is ever as it seems?!
Because corporate leaders and entertainment stars are worshipped here in the USA. People pay attention to what they say, whether they prove to be right or wrong. You know this.
P.S. Dick Cheney and daughter are voting for Harris among MANY other Republicans.
Will Trump’s raid base of low IQ supporters turn out in enough numbers to counteract? They didn’t in 2020.
Yup, you can’t fix stupid. If they were dumb enough to vote for Mr. Potato Head in 2020, then Harris wins.
LMAO! Do you have an exit strategy? I do.
“Don’t read more into a number than what it represents.”
Doesn’t represent much of anything, does it?
And 51 current and former intelligence officers tell us that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinfo, Biden and media told us that Trump called neonazis very fine people and that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I can’t believe people believe these little “jump on the bandwagon” propaganda campaigns. Maybe they think we’re still in middle school.
Hunter Biden ain’t running for President.
Sadly, the average IQ of the democrat voter is about 90, middle-school level?
Yet they still get to vote!
Nobody cares. She’s a retarded nutjob, like you.
Some CEOs will do anything for preferential tax/regulation treatment.
But, let’s face facts. The Fox genius was Rupert–he built the empire. James is a me-too kind of guy, and will be its demise.
I was one of the biggest Wall Street traders for decades. I can smell a problem in the equity market. It started in August, but the street was able to levitate the indexes since August is super low volume. But, after Labor Day, the volume returned, and there she goes. We will be a lot lower by election day, and that will seal the deal for Republicans. I don’t think a rate cut will do much because we are looking at stagflation with a slow motion debt spiral. Mr. Trump will have his hands full for the next 4 years. He will hate life in the oval.
What kind of mea culpa will you commit to if you are wrong?
Ask yourself that question.
No need for me to do so. I don’t precede my comments with a chest thumping that “I” am someone big & special, thereby implying that MY uninformed opinion is of more value than anyone else’s.
But for the sake of the discussion, I will commit to doing 20 push-up’s.
The stench is Wall Street generally.
That aside, we’ll be sure to have ‘I was one of the biggest Wall Street traders for decades’ put on your headstone.’
That supports one theory that the Dems want Trump to win as the economy will crash on his watch. Dems will then win for the next two decades. Eric Holder’s long game.
[Shrug] It really suck how elections have been changed into a horse race.
At the end, someone is going to win and someone is going to lose. Most individuals have next to zero chance to effect the outcome. Vote your choice or not. What will happen will happen.
Been that way for my entire adult life.
Latest London odds: Trump 53%, Harris 46%; $785m wagered. London has correctly called every election since 1866 but two: Truman/Dewey in 1948 and Trump/Hillary in 2016, where she was ahead 6 points in every poll. Just one reason why no educated person pays any attention to polls whatsoever.
Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, but screwed herself by ignoring her advisers and campaigning in Arizona at the end.
Why do you think “campaigning” does anything at all? It just annoys more voters than it ever wins over.
First, disregard the betting markets. Studies have shown they are no more predictive than the polls. Because they rely on the same polls to make bets.
Second, Nate is basically saying Kamala has to win the national by 3% or higher. That’s reasonable. But she’s already doing that. Let’s see what happens after the debate.
But she isn’t though, the fake news media and fake polls might pump that out, but it’s all make-believe, like “AI”.
Mish on Nate Silver 2016: “Once again I find his analysis, and even his math absurd.”
His analysis, math and biases have not changed.
Please, Nate Silver and his model are a joke.
Just got one question. Is this with democrats cheating or without?
LOL. There’s no such thing as democrats not cheating whenever cheating can make a difference. It’s a matter of how successful they’ll be at it. They have 150 year history of it, so they’re expert. Clyburn has been jetting around swing states and having private meetings in urban areas to strategize. There is a margin of fraud (2-5%?) beyond which succeeding in cheating becomes difficult. Can Trump win beyond the margin of fraud? That’s the question.
Aug 19 was two and a half weeks ago. During that period Trump odds are higher low, slightly less negative. Trump/Harris odds osc around 50%/50%. According to wall street recession odd are up from 20% to 25%. SPX is down 4.5% from the top. Rate cuts might send it up to a new all time high. The odds of a ME regional war are low. PA gov Shapiro and Ed Rendell know how to defeat Trump. They did it before and they might do it again. If he wins Trump might be Epseined in jail.
Likely the S&P 500 already has priced in the Fed lowering the Fed Funds Rate from 5.5% to 5% this month.
Trump lost in 2020. Trump (philosophically) lost in 2022. Why did Trump lose? The old white men in this country still do not believe that the young women of this country disagree with them and will carry to term a baby they dont want and cant afford for 18 years. This was bad thinking ten years ago and it’s even worse thinking now. There are only so many mentally ill Cubans in south Florida who truly believe the Republicans have their best interest at heart. But could she lose because of the way the electoral college gives the finger to the majority? Anything could happen.
Trump lost for the same reason Hillary lost.
Both need to look in the mirror for the answer.
It is as simple as that.
They are both Marmite.
Abortion isn’t even in the top three of most important issues for voters.
And certainly not for someone named Ross. But maybe for .. Rosslyn? ….
Did you know some women are pro-life? In fact, many are. Fun fact.
Abortion is…
Looks like Silver has finally gotten it through his thick skull that Trump has outperformed the polls ever since he entered politics. Maybe that will make him more accurate this year, as opposed to prior years. For now and throughout this election, I am using and will use him only to look up the partisan lean of any new poll I read about. That part of his site is solid. The rest? We will see.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin
NC will break red as it has of late, then it just comes down to Pennsylvania and Georgia for, if either wins just those 2, the rest don’t matter. Were I DJT I would spend every minute in those 2 states. The debate matters a lot because for some reason folks having actual evidence of policies from 2017-2020 vs 2021-2024 is being rendered almost irrelevant, it’s as if it’s a battle between 2 candidates with no political history rather between 2 clear sets of actual policy before us to aide in the decision. Crazy times.
I just can’t imagine 4 more years of what we just endured culturally, economically, socially, spiritually, fiscally, militarily and many other “allys”.
My seeing VP Harris campaigning in New Hampshire tells me they see something they don’t wanna see, I watch the movement of the chess pieces not the subterfuge of MSM and press releases. Could be wrong but seems a poor choice of resource allocation if it were already in the blue column.
I think Mish has it right, Nate Silver is cheering on Harris but here’s my question to all of them: Without using Trump’s name in your answer, what policy platform is she standing on that has you supporting her? I suspect “not Trump” being ruled out makes that a toughie for him and all of her supporters.
The ‘return to normalcy’ line won’t work. Biden and Harris are train wrecks.
czech, face reality.
“I do not know who will do better in the debates.”
I would give an edge to Trump in the debates, but only if he can control that stupid childish mouth of his.
Unfortunately for him, he has shown he can’t help himself. This election would be over if Trump were more likeable, but he rubs everyone the wrong way except his sycophant supporters who think he’s Jesus or something.
Debates don’t matter. Only software updates and glitches.
I agree with you. The debate can only be lost by Trump if he only panders to his supporters. If he moderates his behaviour and targets Kameltoes on her failures such as pointing out her failure as the Border Czar and how that has harmed the average American or how bad inflation was under Biden+Harris then he will demolish her. Kameltoes is a lightweight who cannot talk off the cuff and is not quick witted. She will just laugh like the village idiot she is and will be an embarrassment unless Trump screws up (which he is prone to do).
Acting like a MAGA guy like myself sees Trump as Jesus is like making Nazi comparisons. It’s just idiotic. And he doesn’t rub EVERYONE the wrong way which shows your complete bias. How hard is it to say a lot of people, even some conservatives? Stay in the woods, Guy.
I agree with Trump’s policies not his mouth. But I do like how he’s a fighter, and I’ll take someone who speaks their mind over a mouthpiece like Kamala any day of the week.
Trump had a fantastic debate against Kamala. I for one hope he controls his mouth just like he did against Biden. If he does that, then he wins, and I’m sure everyone in his camp will remind him of this between now & the debate.
I don’t vote, and I dont give a shit who wins. If you could read, you would have seen that I said Trump would have this election locked up already if he could control that dumb mouth of his, but the fool can’t help himself.
Independents decide elections not the MAGA or Democrat bases. Tons of people are over Trump’s BS name calling and childish antics. Look at the favorability ratings between Trump and Harris. Harris is doing quite well compared to Trump in this department. Favorability matters in presidential elections despite what you may think, and it might very well cost Trump the election this time around. The only time a candidate with a net unfavorable rating won the presidency was in 2016. Could Trump do it again, sure, but I certainly wouldn’t place a bet on it.
Bottom line, not everyone is like you and votes based on a candidate’s policy package. For some reason lots of people have a hard time accepting that.
Entrenched administrative deep state probability to win 100%.
The political left would have us believe that nothing is wrong with the FDA, CDC, FAA, SEC or the Dept of Education, FBI and CIA. Also, there is nothing wrong with any voting machine or process. It’s all working swimmingly.
A president cannot pardon criminals in state prison. Trump verdict was deferred to Nov 26. He might be sent to a state prison. What can he do, if elected, to escape jail.
why should anyone vote for Harris when she can’t make the case herself?
The question is about the following scenario : Trump wins. Judge Juan Merchan sentences him to jail, to a state prison. In such case he cannot pardon himself. What will MAGA do.
Just because he would be in jail doesn’t mean he can’t be president.
That’s not good enough. He might be Epsteined.
Epstein is still alive, fyi
So no answer eh? I don’t blame you. There is no case to vote for her. It’s why she can’t muster one either.
Realistically, no judge wants to send him to jail because the personal blow back of that would off the charts. Even if NY is a blue state, there are still probably 40% or more Republicans in the state.
That judge would be risking himself and his family were he to sentence Trump to actual jail time. Not just as in physical risk but online risk (harassed beyond belief, hacked etc) too.
You think someone who’s just been elected President of the United States is going to be sent to a state prison? Oh, that’s ADORABLE!!
Trump can avoid travelling to NY and the other blue zoos to avoid being detained. Then he can pressure the state where he was convicted in to overturn his conviction or reduce his sentence to no prison time by 101 means at his disposal. Have the tax officials audit every official involved, threaten to cut federal funding to that state, threaten to close or downsize military bases in that state, launch a federal RICO investigation on officials in that state, whatever it takes for that state to cry Uncle.
Yes, and he can make clear to NY that their federal money will dry up.
I would prefer Trump over Harris for sure…sometimes it feels like choosing a minor amputation vs. getting sepsis (/sarc) but I think 61.5 percent is high. Too much TDS hatred and too much loosey-goosey in the vote by mail systems that really hasn’t been fixed. This on top of the MSM behaving like a bunch of porn movie set “Fluffers” on behalf of the Harris Campaign. I hope I’m wrong…
Agreed. I started a $4 a month WSJ subscription a few months back. The extent to which they’re carrying water for Harris is just stunning.
While inflation has come down, the problem is that the forces underlying increasing property taxes, insurance costs for home & cars has not broken.
Therefore, the 12.5M illegals are the most important issue. They’re replacing native workers, holding down wage gains, contributing to increased crime & drugs, pushing & up rent & food prices.
It’s the defining issue, and if THE SYSTEM is able to push Harris over the finish line, then America will move past a tipping under her term. The extent to which the illegals will be creating all sorts of problems will easily be 2-3 times what it is today. And that’s going to be a MAJOR problem.
Last, it’s going to be very interesting to see how the 3, 5, 7, 10 days play out post Nov 5th? What kind of election irregularities are going to be reported? If so, will there be real legal challenges? Will the system get overconfident & do something stupid that creates a silver bullet moment in terms of election interference being discovered? What will the final results look like in terms of Black & Hispanic support for Trump? If Harris does poorly like most expect in the debate, how bad will it get with the MSM covering up the mirage they’re creating around her, and how will the independents react?
The GOP has a phalanx of lawyers ready for challenges…but remember the justice system usually means “Just Us and Our Democracy”.