In a silly forecast, the 538 has Biden a tossup favorite. Nate Silver says Trump has a 72.2 percent chance. Several charts to discuss.
Chart from 538 Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
This is despite the 538 polls used to make the forecast.
Latest National Polls Influencing the Forecast
Does This Make Any Sense?
Of course not. One of three things has happened.
- 538’s model has gone ridiculously wild
- This is purposeful cheerleading.
- 538 is predicting what it wants to happen.
538 Explanation
It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 505 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 491 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 4 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win.
That explanation describes point number 1.
However, not only is the model predicting political trends. It’s also predicting economic trends, and I believe very poorly.
I have more on the economics side of things below. First, let’s check in with Nate Silver.
Nate Silver, Who Is Favored to Win
The above chart is courtesy of The Silver Bulletin.
There is a free portion of the Silver Bulletin and a subscriber portion. The chart above is from the subscriber portion, minus Kennedy data and minus the odds of no winner (headed to recounts or the courts). If you like what you see, then please subscribe.
In his latest post Silver discuss House Effects, which he adjusts for. For example, “Rasmussen has a long history of strongly Republican-leaning numbers.“
Despite a couple of very good polls for Biden by Marist, Trump’s odds of winning are among the highest ever.
Wild But Possible
Just because 538 is ridiculously wild, even absurd, that does not make their forecast impossible.
Let’s assume Silver has nailed it.
No better yet, let’s assume the true odds are 83.33 percent Trump and 16.67 percent Biden. That means Biden would win one in six times, certainly not impossible.
And if Biden were to win, it does not mean 538’s model was good. It may mean 538 got lucky. Few people understand the distinction between a lucky outcome and probabilities.
I picked 16.67 percent on purpose. It’s the same as betting on any individual number on a single role of one dice. That happens often, with often defined as 16.67 percent for dice and 16.67 percent or better for the election.
Suppose I had a model that predicts a three on a single roll of a dice. A three comes up. Was the model good or lucky?
Assume another model loudly states a three is very unlikely. But a three comes up. Is that model wrong, or unlucky.
A lot of people thought they were geniuses in 2016 predicting Trump would win. It took a last second miracle from Comey for that to happen.
I thought it would be close but Hillary would win. I think I had the right model. Nate Silver had Hillary a huge favorite.
The Right Idea
The Attack Dogs
I agree with Colin.
Getting cocky: Hillary did not travel to major battleground states thinking they were in the bag and she made silly statements (recall Hillary’s “deplorables” comment).
Trump is highly likely to make silly statements and get too cocky. The saving grace now my very well be Biden is more cocky.
Fake News?
This is absolutely not fake news. It’s a model and one that looks absurd today, but it can easily happen.
Future Events
“This goes further than the normal polls. They are forecasting future events.”
Correct. I believe very wrong. But I have been known to be wrong (as has everyone else).
The Seen and Unseen
Long shots do happen. And there are nearly four month to go. Anything can happen.
If Biden drops out, what are the odds? The correct answer is you don’t know nor does anyone else.
My base case is Biden does drop out, but I hope he doesn’t because his medical condition is guaranteed to worsen.
However, a worsening medical condition is not necessarily fatal. Over the next four months people might realize, or come to believe Biden will immediately turn the reins over to Kamala, with unknown ramifications.
Yet people seem certain that Biden would necessarily lose if he stays in. Perhaps it’s one in six. 538 seems to think its 50-50 but part of that could be an expectation that Biden does drop out and Kamala beats Trump.
Political Outlook
The 538 model appears to be making irrational decisions politically.
Young voters and blacks are turning away from Democrats in startling numbers. And the polls have been consistent on this all year, starting February.
Candidate Preference by Age Group
An amazing 41 percent of those 18-34 are for Trump with only 30 percent for Biden.
That’s an unprecedented 11 percentage point gap for Republicans. In 2020 this age group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
I discussed the above poll and also candidate preference by race in Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden
Please click on link for 11 charts.
On June 19, I commented Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.
Those renting have seen the price of rent go up at least 0.4 percent every month for 33 consecutive months. That string finally broke in June with a 0.3 percent rise.
Meanwhile, the cost of a home has skyrocketed.
Renters (mainly young adults and blacks), have been left behind and it shows up in the polls.
What About Recession?
A big mistake in the 358 model is not only predicting extremely favorable things for Biden, but also depending on very good things economically.
Data is weakening everywhere.
Recession Has Begun
On July 8, I stated Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
Weakness Everywhere
There is weakness in housing (new home sales, existing home sales, and starts at the lowest in 4 years), consumer spending, manufacturing (both durable and nondurable good), jobs data (constant negative revisions, QCEW, major survey discrepancies, quits, and a rising unemployment rate), and finally we have major unexpected ISM Services in Contraction.
All of the above items are hard data other than the services ISM.
There is no savior on the horizon this time. The Fed rates to be inactive until it panics in September and that will be much too late to stop a recession that started in May or June.
For more details and discussion as to why I think a recession has started, please see the above link.
If a recession has indeed started, a rate cut by the Fed in September is not going to reverse it.
And if there is a recession, and the unemployment rate picks up by November (my base case) what happens to the 538 model?
Still November is nearly four months away. 538 assumes nearly everything will go Biden’s way.
Even if a recession hits and Biden manages to stay in it is not impossible to Trump to lose. Call it one in six if you like.
Regardless, getting cocky is not a smart thing to do. Meanwhile, we still do not know Trump’s VP or whether or not Biden drops out. Either or both could dramatically change the odds, recession or not.
Nate was right on an election and wrong on several. He’s not a guy to be taken seriously.
You do not seem to understand right or wrong in any probability sense.
30% chances happen 30% of the time. Hardly anyone seems to understand this.
If I give you 2-1 odds that a 3 will come up on a single roll of one one dice and you take it and win, I would not be wrong to predict you would lose. You should be demanding 5-1 odds.
Shit happens. It took a last second Comey miracle for Trump to win. Period. Where I agree with you is Silver had Hillary’s odds of winning way to high. That was the mistake, not the forecast of Hillary winning.
Silver is to be taken very seriously. He is a professional better who understands odds. There is likely no better model. But it is not perfect.
Anyone who says “I knew Trump would win” is a fool. I recall posting something like 55-45 and did think Silver ay 80% or whatever was nuts. That is what he was wrong about, not the fact that Trump won.
Trump just got re-elected by a landslide tonight. This guy doesn’t need this job but has put himself out there to try to make a better America for “the people”….in his attempt to do so, he has been demonized, prosecuted, and now tonight almost assassinated. FU Brandon! FU Democrats! Eat Sh*t and die!
Election is all about turning out your base, Those supporting Trump will crawl over glass to vote for him. No such passion for Biden, although you have Dems willing to crawl over glass to vote against Trump. If the election is about Biden and not Trump, Trump wins in landslide. Trump needs to take a long vacation to protect him from himself.
July is not November.
Mish twisting himself into a pretzel to avoid stating the obvious: the only way Trump loses in Nov. is election fraud.
“…it is not impossible (for) Trump to lose. Call it one in six if you like.”
GIMME A BREAK.
abysmal foreign policy.
miserable inflation.
spiking unemployment.
cultural erosion.
migrant invasion
crime & more crime.
failing education.
trillion/mo. deficits.
impending recession.
Biden = Mr. Magoo
Harris = 350 word vocabulary
Kamala can beat Trump? NO CHANCE.
Biden can beat Trump? NO CHANCE.
Grow a spine and call it what it is… this is how elections are STOLEN… wildly biased media, rigged/fake polls… they are simply juking the stats!!! in broad daylight. make it look/smell/sound like a horserace… because then the steal doesn’t look so egregious/obvious.
that ONE-in-SIX “chance” is called FRAUD, ffs.
“Young voters and blacks are turning away from Democrats in startling numbers”
You call out surprising figures and then hang your belief that the model is wrong on exactly the trends you imagine driving those figures.
We’ll see if young people and blacks turn out for the criminal celebrity candidate whose values are profoundly out of step with them at the election.
I am comparing 538 to Nate Silver
The 538 model is BS
But you can believe what you want
I recall lots of assurances from Trump supporters that polls were wrong in 2020. How did that work out?
I suppose perhaps the answer was ‘conveniently’, because believing that polls are rigged leads easily to believe that voting is rigged, despite endless recounts and audits confirming the results. Which allowed Donald Trump to try to steal power in radical violation of the Constitution with the full-throated (and briefly, violent) support of his core followers – people who astonishingly still refer to such beliefs as ‘patriotism’.
“Whoever weakens the respect for democratic government is, intentionally or unintentionally, increasing the likelihood, not of Socialism or Communism, but of Fascism.” – Bertrand Russell
“He will pretend false votes, foul play, hold possession of the reins of government” – Thomas Jefferson writing about the threat of demagogues to democracy, to James Madison in 1787
stealing an election is only possible if it is BELIEVABLE.
expect more rigged polls & ridiculous predictions – all calibrated to make the election seem close – a horserace.
wanna know what is NOT believable? biden gaining in polls after 10 straight days of exhibitive dementia & dark brandon behavior… par for the course for Joetato.
forget all that!!! look at our polls!!! Joe is stronger than ever!!!
538 is pathetic – zero credibility.
Already laying down the framework for this round of treason before the election even happens?
I suppose Bannon did it last time – “And what Trump is gonna do is just declare victory. But that doesn’t mean he’s a winner. He’s just gonna say he’s a winner.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxNoUnxN_cs
Speaking of “believable” and treason, maybe you’d like to be the first Trump supporter to answer?
for which of the specific claims listed under (12) on page of the federal indictment did Trump in fact have the ‘proof of stolen election’ that he claimed to have, justifying the attempt to steal power illegally through fraudulent elector slates formed by lying to GOP electors in swing states? Feel free to be specific, claim (a) through (f).
https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump_23_cr_257.pdf
Was it the Dominion claim of ‘flipping millions of votes to Biden’? If he in fact had the proof of this, why wasn’t it produced when Fox paid $787 million to Dominion? For that matter, why did Fox News personalities privately consider these claims ridiculous even as they were feeding them to you, who still devotedly believes?
you’ll be citing the Warren Report next, yes?
another ham-handed & cynical “election” (like 2020) will not play-out as you expect/assume.
for starters, no one in the world will believe it.
because it was never a horserace – biden has been losing this election since 2021. a-stan debacle, border/migration, crime/urban anarchy, jurisdictional+econ.flight, epic inflation, politicized LE/fedguv, gaza, ukraine, zombiePOTUS. yikes.
People acting in good faith are able to answer direct questions, rather than evade as you are doing here (think of it as a perk of having personal integrity and a moral center.)
I was referencing direct quotes of Trump, as would be easy to confirm. But perhaps even clicking a link may cause you to worry that you are showing disloyalty or thinking independently, so I’m happy to just quote it for you and repeat the question.
Perhaps this time you can answer?
For which of the specific claims below, (a) through (f), did Trump in fact have the ‘proof of stolen election’ that he claimed to have, justifying the attempt to steal power illegally through fraudulent elector slates formed by lying to GOP electors in swing states?
—
12. The Defendant widely disseminated his false claims of election fraud for months, despite the fact that he knew, and in many cases had been informed directly, that they were not true. The Defendant’s knowingly false statements were integral to his criminal plans to defeat the federal government function, obstruct the certification, and interfere with others’ right to vote and have their votes counted. He made these knowingly false claims throughout the post-election time period, including those below that he made immediately before the attack on the Capitol on January 6:
a. The Defendant insinuated that more than ten thousand dead voters had voted in Georgia. Just four days earlier, Georgia’s Secretary of State had explained to the Defendant that this was false.
b. The Defendant asserted that there had been 205,000 more votes than voters in Pennsylvania. The Defendant’s Acting Attorney General and Acting Deputy Attorney General had explained to him that this was false.
c. The Defendant said that there had been a suspicious vote dump in Detroit, Michigan. The Defendant’s Attorney General had explained to the Defendant that this was false, and the Defendant’s allies in the Michigan state legislature—the Speaker of the House of Representatives and Majority Leader of the Senate—had publicly announced that there was no evidence of substantial fraud in the state.
d. The Defendant claimed that there had been tens of thousands of double votes and other fraud in Nevada. The Nevada Secretary of State had previously rebutted the Defendant’s fraud claims by publicly posting a “Facts vs. Myths” document explaining that Nevada judges had reviewed and rejected them, and the Nevada Supreme Court had rendered a decision denying such claims.
e. The Defendant said that more than 30,000 non-citizens had voted in Arizona. The Defendant’s own Campaign Manager had explained to him that such claims were false, and the Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives, who had supported the Defendant in the election, had issued a public statement that there was no evidence of substantial fraud in Arizona.
f. The Defendant asserted that voting machines in various contested states had switched votes from the Defendant to Biden. The Defendant’s Attorney General, Acting Attorney General, and Acting Deputy Attorney General all had explained to him that this was false, and numerous recounts and audits had confirmed the accuracy of voting machines.
“The Seen and Unseen”
“New info reveals that woke advertisers and brands are colluding together to attack people like @elonmusk, @joerogan, political candidates, and news organizations.”
An entity called GARM. More election interference, as in 2020.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/its-time-again-msm-launches-muh-russia-election-narrative-brands-collude-silence-dissent
100,000,000 reasons why Ds win again.
“It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.”
— Yogi Berra
The future is unknown. Yogi Berra bet with his bat several times per game when the odds were in his favor. Since he became better than most in the long run he won.
Regardless of who the Democrat candidate is, if they win the current horrible policies will continue. Unfortunately the Republicans will continue the spending spree bankrupting the country, but at least there’s a chance it won’t involve 20 million more illegals and a nuclear war.
If Biden stays in and pulls this off the few shreds of Federal legitimacy left are gone. Who knows what happens at that point inside the uniparty but it will be refreshing. Seeing them fully divided, wasting all their time with knives out against each other instead of spending all their energy trying to divide us… what logical rational person would not want that scenario?
FYI Mish, a McAfee add pops up after a couples reading your post that is in my mind spam of the worst kind. The only way to exit the add is to shut down the window. I’m not sure it has anything to do with your site, but your site is the only one that triggers the irritation.
couple minutes
Democrats are always going to win the popular vote due to their entrenched ballot fraud operation in blue states and cities, plus illegal alien voters.
I think that some male black and hispanic voters will be in for a surprise when they show up to the polls to vote for Trump, only to find that they have already voted – for Biden.
538 is owned by ABC which is owned by the CIA. Connect the dots people.
If you put 200 dots placed randomly on a sheet of paper and tell someone to find the duck by connecting the dots he will find a duck.
Under what rock is 538 finding it’s polling participants?
Does having predictable predictions make you a better pollster? If so 538 is in a class by themselves.
There continues to be an “air” of desperation in the Democrats. With desperation on one side, there needs to be SOMETHING that happens to the Republican Side, possibly to the Candidate, where they find out he made a “pussy” comment, or had a hooker on the side or BOTH will be repeated or something else salacious will have to be suddenly discovered to upset the Trump-Team Cockiness. OH, to correct an assumption: MY TEAM would be cocky as well, when faced with a demented Leader on the other side.
With that said, desperate people do desperate things and I think we are due for a major WORLD situation that will take all eyes off of BidenCo.
Mish, polls, I would agree, are an interesting subject matter, esp. to those who believe in them. HOWEVER………………..
Move over senior intelligence officials, covid crazies, war mongers, Janet Yellen. and MSM. Make room for 538 in the “expert” grave yard.
“The laptop is fake”
“Safe and effective”
“Ukraine is winning”
“Strong and Resilient”
“The border is secure”
“Best Biden Ever”
“Sharp as a tack”
That’s great 538. Let’s keep Biden on the ticket!!!
“They couldn’t possibly steal another one, could they?”
Who’s going to stop them? Merrick Garland?
I strongly agree Sentient. Cheating worked last time, why not this time? Why would they NOT cheat? They had to cheat to win last time, this time around it is even more imperative — for obvious reasons.
Muhammed Deif, Hamas #2, and Khan Yunis commander might have been eliminated in a wooded area, near refugees tents. The IDF is waiting for confirmation.
Are we sure Comey was THE reason Hillary lost in 2016? I’m not convinced. I took a road trip across Pennsylvania in autumn 2016. There was no Comey in sight, but vast numbers of homemade Trump yard signs. People there were disgusted with the direction of the country and it was no shock that PA went for Trump despite the valiant efforts of the Dem machine in indigo blue webs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where no GOP foot dare tread to catch ballot boxes stuffed with Hillary votes from vast hordes of people aged 122 and older. Pennsylvania, Transylvania. What’s the difference? In BOTH places, the dead rise from the grave. In the former’s case, its only to vote every election.
Biden : attack, attack, attack !! After so many failed attempts (Putin-Iran-Bibi) Brutus wouldn’t dare spilling Biden’s blood. On Mon the R will test their emotional intelligent EQ. Will BLM, Antifa and pro Hamas burn Milwaukee. The D will test their EQ in late Aug. What are the odds that in Aug a NY judge will send Trump to jail for hush money conviction, before becoming a US president, before he is covered by immunity. Will the D celebrate a total victory in the new Chicago slaughterhouses.
Will Antifa and Pro Hamas unleash their attacks during the RNC protected by a D Milwaukee police.
And what happens when those same mobs get to do their protests at the DNC convention? You think that the pro Hamas mobs verses the pro Israel mobs in the Democratic Party won’t clash?
The Pro Hamas will cause chaos in both D cities. Chicago police and BLM will tame them. Milwaukee police might be “overwhelmed”.
Any “protests” right outside the conventions in Milwaukee and Chicago will be either pure AstroTurf or false flags.
And to close out the night:
What about those that get up early, take a long nap in the middle of the day and come back alive at five o’clock?
AKA public-sector employees
I can talk about the results of an election but I cannot predict who wins one so I shy away from doing so.
I wish Trump will win but I sincerely hope that Biden will be replaced before the election even though it would favor Trump if he is not. The simple reason is that I think it is extremely dangerous for the country to have for its President a brain-dead near cadaver where all decisions are made by a small tight cabal around him who are not elected and whose names we often don’t even know. Who controls the nuclear codes? No one here can answer that. The country cannot risk it.
If Biden is replaced and Trump wins, great. If he loses that’s bad but at least he will lose to someone who has a working brain. That’s why I pray the Democrats get him to step down. Let’s not cut off our collective noses to spite our collective faces.
Real Clear Politics is a lot better than Nate Silver’s blog.
I hope Trump campaigns a lot in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia. Don’t let up at all.
Based on what I’m hearing from family in Nevada, they say its governor (Lombardo) is helping Trump a lot and also there is now an even bigger support base there for Trump compared to 2020.
Mister Mish,
Another indicator is the bed tax revenue (for April 2024) for Panama City Beach is down 9% compared to April 2023, and much further down compared to 2022 and 2021.
Panama City Beach (aka: American Riviera) is one of the most popular vacation destinations for working and middle class families in the USA, especially states like Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Ohio.
I’ve never seen the bed tax receipts that bad before, and that tells me the economy is slowing down, and also my friends in the service industry (restaurants, hotels, boat charters, etc) say they’ve noticed a significant slow down.
Very Respectfully, A D
Same here in my neck of the woods, but in the northern Rockies. Tourism is a huge part of the local economy and, as I’ve written in a prior comment, the region is still waiting for that wave of tourists to arrive.
Personally, all those folks flooding the area drive me nuts. Traffic jams, too many boats on the lake, etc. Kind of nice to have a quiet summer. But I know local businesses are struggling, which is not a good thing.
To be fair, Silver was saying his model wasn’t accounting for trump’s momentum in the waning days. He was cautioning against his own model and saying Trump was likely stronger than it showed. Tough for a model to account for event risk like Comey in real time.
It’s easy to make predictions. Any of these professional pollsters and pundits should have to put skin the game when the make their predictions. Say $50k? We would see a lot more off-the-cuff meaningless predictions.
Siler is a professional gambler.
So was I, in college, enough to finance my way through school
Have not played poker though in decades
BINGO! No penalties for bullshit.
President Trump could be the first President since Roosevelt to win three times in a row.
Will be!
The womenfolk who dont want to be forced to raise their rapist’s baby blew the doors off the guaranteed Republican (big red wave) win of the House in 2022. Those same ladies will likely be the deciding factor this time. And they havent changed their minds. Old white men telling them what to do aint gonna fly.
Back to the rape baby trope. ScL greatest hits album
Ok, take the word “rape” out of it. Still stands.
Not as big an issue as you make it.
Simple fact getting reported that woman lead entertainment shows are not drawing the volumes that male country singers or male rap stars are drawing.
What does that prove and how is that relevant? Well it shows woman shifting and want a more traditional role. Being a Woman and wanting a family life is no longer out of style. Woman who want families want a Male who can provide financial and household security.
Strong Male figure is what country and rap males present. Box office receipts show this shift in psychology has occurred..
The push back against males claiming to be Woman and participating in woman’s sports is also something occurring. Young Woman want to participate in a fair contest with their own gender.
Abortion is an important issue for woman but far from being the only deciding factor.
Financial strength is also coming back in vogue as criteria for a partner.
Thus indicating economic security will be a meaningful decision determinant.
Yeah, right. 🙂
You appear to know very little about Woman.
When the Babies due date fast approaches that nesting instinct of Woman gets fairly intense and everything becomes about the new arrival.
Not when the jerk who knocked her up isnt around, and theres no money, and she really didnt want a baby in the first place. But, hope springs eternal…
Yes by all means let the women decide what is right for their situation. As a man I support a women right to chose. is it then incumbent to support infanticide. Is there a age you would not kill a rape baby? Why stop at birth? There may be those who would like the choice to include two or three year olds.
The massive crime wave that every law enforcement expert predicted in the 1990s didnt happen — the unwanted babies let go because Roe v Wade came in in the 1970s meant loads of unwanted boys mostly (teens in the early 1990s) werent alive to create this crime wave.
That is a perverse sense of logic. Fight crime through abortions!
Oh so you’re saying it’s a preemptive murder. Lucky us.
These days the State gives you plenty of $ as a single mom.
Why do you think there are so many of them?
Any woman who wants an abortion can get one. If their state has a ban they can go to a state without a ban. Blue states and organizations are paying expenses for woman to travel out of state for abortions. This is a ridiculous talking point
If she thinks the guy is a jerk and she doesn’t want a baby then why didn’t she make a better decision like keeping her legs together? Stupidity has consequences and why should the baby pay for that?
add: Sarah Huckabee Sanders still presents a strong Woman with a Family who also can lead with a level head.
Return of the Pioneer Woman to politics. Fits well with a rebirth of the Nations Traditional values.
(Trump fired her)
He still gets along very well with Her and she will not be stabbing him in the back.
Differences of opinion occur as it should.
Her performance in her role in Trump first administration was spectacular.
She would be well received by Woman voters who must be appalled at thought of airhead Harris as a President.
The Abortion issue is used as the Trojan Horse to achieve the Democrat objectives of an open border, welfare state, identity politics throughout the government especially the Pentagon, a war on oil and gas, a disastrous foreign policy, etc.
Those that support abortion as not single issue voters. They want an open border and welfare state.
That’s great, for abortion being the “only issue” , we get the consolation prize of Democrat failures like an open border, welfare state, reckless government spending, disastrous foreign policy, a Stasi-like rogue DOJ and FBI, and a Woke military.
W I N N I N G ! ! !
My wife, who is Hispanic, loathes Trump. She will not vote for Biden either because of the migrants being bussed all over the country and the inflation crisis he has spurred. I guess it’s Cornell West for those disenfranchised Dems.
Cornell West…ha ha ha ha. You made my day.
Inflation was induced by huge acceleration in M2 money supply . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS (FEB 2020).
Presidential elections in 2020? November.
It would be just plain stupid to assign the pandemic inflation to Biden.
RFK jr could be the Democrat’s “candidate” all along. He does have some very progressive ideas. If Biden drops out, he could easily take those votes. Harris might not be too happy.
Won’t happen.
But I like the idea proposed elsewhere that Trump make RFK Jr. the Attorney General, to start draining the swamp.
That’d get them both JFK’ed.
If the democrats can so thoroughly ruin the country (and large parts of the world) for 3.5 years and still count on half of Americans to reward them, the future looks very grim.
That is why they are counting on their masses of supporters who want a welfare state and open border, like the AntiFa activists.
They are also paid to harvest “mail in ballots” in key metro areas like Atlanta, as well as help non-citizens (who are recent arrivals) with registering to vote by submitting false voter applications, which get easily accepted by Democrat supervisors of elections in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, etc.
Its an army of anarcho-tyranny operatives and hacks.
The VP pick will be most important in this election. Should trump pick Tulsi, he will sweep up many independents.
Puh-leeze. Tulsi is full of crap. Listened to her on a recent Bill Maher show. Was not impressed.
Agree. Normally I would shun a turncoat like her, but her ability to seal the deal might be worth the risk. She talks a great game.
Any number of politicians over the years have switched parties. Reagan was a Democrat once but like most sensible people he became more conservative as he matured. Same applies to Tulsi.
Trump is so strong that his VP pick won’t change the polls, except for 538’s poll, which will predictably show the democrats lead widening.
Choice of VP has minimal to no influence on presidential elections. People only care about the person at the top of the ticket.
Well, as the polls stand right now and if you were to believe them, the communist Democrats would need to steal enough votes to make up for the 20% of African-Americans who contend to be voting for Trump the cycle. That’s a lot of illegal votes, mail ballot fraud, and voting machine re-programming.
Nah, it’s really just a couple of USB drives full of “votes” that suddenly appear at 2 AM the day after election. Listen, look, not a joke folks,… this is America and the Magna Carta says…well, anyway.
In the lead up to the 2020 election any court challenges to the many illegal changes to voting procedures were denied standing because the claimants hadn’t yet suffered any damage. Immediately after the election, court challenges were denied under the vaunted legal principle of “well, it’s water under the bridge now”. Nice system we got. Swing states with democrat political structures (basically all of them) can do whatever they want to rig elections and the courts have proven themselves unwilling to get involved.
“it’s really just a couple of USB drives full of “votes” that suddenly appear at 2 AM the day after election.”
It worked in 2020, why wouldn’t they try again? The question is, will Americans take to the streets this time, in response?
Ridin With Biden. Into the overpass
Worthless all the way around.
Biden unlikely to be the ultimate candidate?
Very unlikely. Even the late night hosts got “the call”.
I want to believe that but it looks like his team’s plan is to run out the clock. The closer we get to the Dem convention, the more difficult it will be to dump Biden.
African Americans are rallying strongly around Biden because they know he won’t make 4 years and will have to turn the presidency over to their girl – Kamala Harris. If he wins.