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Trump Tariff Pause Ignites Another Mad Dash for Imports

Companies cancelled import orders from high-tariffed countries. Now they want those orders.

Oops I Changed My Mind

The wave of cancellations from countries like Vietnam suddenly morphed into a New Surge of Import Orders.

President Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs is spurring another wave of cargo frontloading on ships from Southeast Asia and South America. Big ocean carriers like Maersk, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd are getting calls to proceed with shipments that were put on hold.

“For the supply chains this means the large number of bookings which were suspended or paused for the past week are all prone to be shipped as soon as possible for non-China origins,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, which advises the top five boxship operators on strategy.

However, loadings from China have fallen off a cliff amid the tariff war with the U.S. Freight forwarders based in China say cancellations for China shipments peaked at 55% this week.

China Not Out of Picture Yet

With reciprocal tariffs in Vietnam set at 46 percent, Taiwan at 32 percent, and Japan at 24 percent, trade with Asia was about to crash with a wave of order cancellations.

Although Trump reset tariffs to 10 percent on all other nations, he upped tariffs on China to 145 percent.

However, with Vietnam back at 10 percent, expect more tariff avoidance by China via way of Vietnam.

Bond Market Vote of No Confidence

I am watching the bond market closely now. As I type the yield on the 30-year long bond is up another 6 basis points to 4.91 percent.

Yield on the 10-year note is up 7 basis points to 4.47 percent.

At the yield lows this morning, the 30-year rate was 4.67 percent and the 10-year note was 4.27 percent.

That’s a rise of 20 basis points on the 10-year note and 24 basis points on the long bond.

CPI Much Better than Expected, Bond Market Reacts Poorly in Big Warning

At 1:36 Mountain Time today I commented CPI Much Better than Expected, Bond Market Reacts Poorly in Big Warning

I posted charts of the 30-year long bond of 4.85 percent and the 10-year note at 4.40 percent.

My sarcastic comment was “But that’s OK because Trump says the current bond market is beautiful”.

Fact check: Trump “I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s… it’s beautiful. But, yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.

Now, who are you going to believe, the bond market reaction or Trump’s description of the bond market?

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. We are nearly back to bond yields that caused Trump to panic.

Related Posts

April 9, 2025: Trump Capitulates with a 90-Day Pause on Tariffs, DOW Jumps 2,200 Points

Trump has had enough of the stock market decline.

The DOW finished up just short of 3,000 points.

April 10, 2025: Three Things that Spooked the Bond Market and Why Trump Blinked

Trump calmed the stock and bond markets for now. The key issues still remain.

It seems “for now” did not last very long.

April 10, 2025: A Third of Yesterday’s Massive Rally Vanishes, Who Knew What When?

Check out an interesting chart of options trading ahead of the rally.

What’s Gold Saying?

Also consider my January 31, 2025 post Gold Hits New Record High, Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control?

At the time I wrote that post, gold was $2796.

As I type gold is up another $56 today to $3,232. It hit a new record high today.

Gold does not believe the Fed has things under control, the bond market does not believe the Fed has things under control, and neither do I.

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68 Comments
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MelvinRich
MelvinRich
1 year ago

The unintended consequences of tariffs. Foreigners retaliate by selling bonds and buying gold. Smart people (not me) could see Trump’s tariffs would promote selling treasury securities. It’s warfare, Trump thinks he has all the cards? How soon until the Don folds? Dow 20k? Ten year 7%?

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago

Gold would be right! Looks like the Fed with have to bail out the hedgies’ Treasury basis. Who could’ve seen that coming?

Dave Smith
Dave Smith
1 year ago

I question Trump’s basis that running a US dollar trade deficit is bad. In 1971, when then last tie to gold was released, foreign central bankers complained that the dollar would lose value, and the Treasury Secretary told them that that was their problem. The backing gold was $35/ounce and now it is around $3200 dollars for an ounce. Gold has not changed value; thus, the dollar has as we all know and it’s approaching 99% of its 1971 value. Who is losing, the folks holding the dollars or the US as they continue deflating their own currency. Second, if America receives something of durable value, like lumber or steel, that holds its value, we have exchanged for an appreciating asset. Bottom line, measuring the trade deficit in dollars alone is short sighted.

The second fallacy is thinking foreign investment is the best we can do for jobs in America. Yes, it is good for employment and there is the potential for various tax streams and opportunity to supply a foreign manufacturer with utilities and other services for a profit, there is the downside that foreign owners’ profits will be returned to the foreign country for investment some place other than the US. If Trump encouraged US ownership of the new investments the profits would stay here. I look at it as being similar to simple and compound interest; foreign ownership is potentially not reinvesting the returns in America much like simple interest, whereas home ownership is akin to compounding interest where profits are more likely reinvested in the homeland.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Dave Smith

Where to start?

Skipping global economics; instead, focus on (tariff free) regional economics.

Let’s take one city, say Indianapolis. Of all the businesses in the region, how many significantly ‘export’ goods and services beyond the immediate region? That is, they produce more goods and services than are needed by the region. Revenue flows into the region.

Now, what about the other businesses. They exist to fulfill the region’s needs. That is, they are ‘support’ industries. They grow as the economy and population grow, not faster, not slower.

Given the above, any unfilled need for goods or services is therefore imported.

Imports drain ‘revenue.’ Support industries recycle revenue. Export industries are the key to extra growth (and decline).

The fact is an export industry magnifies incoming revenue, creating multiple jobs in the support category for every job in the export industry. The multiplier can be as high as 10!!!! (and higher for very special exports).

Despite Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations (and MIsh), a region (nation) needs export industries with revenue ideally exceeding imports so there is a net inflow (assuming growth is a good thing).

The regions with a declining economic base are legend, just as countries with declining economic base will fall behind.

Last edited 1 year ago by Flingel Bunt
Frosty
Frosty
1 year ago

Regarding gold and the Fed:

The Fed can not control what trump does. Heck, trump can’t even control what he does. Trump is impulse and headline based. Like a spoiled child child with a bad temper and full diaper trump keeps kicking, screaming & lashing out while our economy is cratering.

In this environment gold is likely to continue to rise because it has no counterparty risk. At these prices gold mining companies are gross undervalued as they have not kept up with the appreciation of the underlying asset and their margins have exploded!

Let’s face it, the dollar and value of U.S. debt is based on the “Full faith and credit” of a once great nation that is now being lead by a team of incompetent fools. I have no faith in trump or his minions.

The markets: bond, stock and gold are telling the entire world that trump can not be trusted any more than a circus barker.

Who does trump work for?

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

I felt the same way in 2007/2008 and I bought gold miners and gold at near all time highs (back then around $1300 I think) and then things returned to normal and gold & miners cratered. I would have been better off with bitcoin or the S&P 500.

I don’t know if gold & miners will crater again, maybe this time is different but I won’t be holding my breath. I sold half my gold miner stock last week and am looking for a buyer of my physical gold. I’m sure I won’t catch the top in gold but I certainly don’t want to be holding the bag if it does crater.

And let me be very clear, I am not telling anyone what to do with their gold or miners or anything else, I am telling you what I have done and am going to do.

Frosty
Frosty
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Interesting, I bought the miners in 2004-5-6 and sold them in August of 2011.

Again, I started buying AEM in July of 2023and have been buying the GDX gold fund thereafter as I have sold off highly appreciated technology stocks.

Clearly we have different results. Why did you hang on to gold when the real estate market and economy was clearly recovering? Even with your less than perfect timing, your long term gains are spectacular! Congratulations!

We are just entering trump disaster number two and there is no way that business can react to trumps demands for immediate on-shoring of production faster than they were already planning doing. His fickle whipsawing of markets is not a stable environment to make billion dollar decisions in.

Many business leaders are wondering if our economy will survive as we know it and gold is a dramatically under owned asset. I think it is just getting going and this run has two years to go given the sudden, epic and justified loss of trust in the U.S. and its dollar.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

If it is true Trump is the causal factor of current uncertainty, you have another 3+ years to go.

If it is true that Trump contributed to ‘uncertainty’, the question is what caused the uncertainty in the first place. And there, it gets interesting.

What is uncertainty, anyway? Are we talking … Black Swans?
My working definition of a ‘black swan’ is a low probability event with extreme outcomes. Note ‘probability.’ This means risk, not uncertainty. Uncertainty, in essence, means an event (or collection of events) to which probability cannot be assigned. It is not a crap shoot, or even a lightening strike.

If you put all the ‘factors’ precipitating the global economy into a pile, has there ever been a somewhat similar situation? If the answer is ‘no’, we are dealing with uncertainty.

My advice–get rid of your biases and think critically.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Flingel Bunt

Having been struck by lightning, you’d think I could spell it.

The point is, risk is quantifiable. Uncertainty is not. I think this explains why markets are reacting as they are. AI, algorithms, and charts don’t help, and may make volatility worse. Then, toss in leverage…(add greed and fear), ‘shaken, not stirred.’

Frosty
Frosty
1 year ago
Reply to  Flingel Bunt

Correct, Three more years and getting rid of biases are critical to positioning of financial assets. Objectivity is part of critical thinking and being well read and looking at things from various perspectives is wise.

People from the left tend to omit gold from their portfolios and with an administration that is actively weakening the dollar, its influence and credibility, gold shines. People from the far right tend to be “Stackers” and hold large quantities of the physical metal.

Regardless of my centrist leanings toward fairness, openminded and ethical behavior, I have always watched the gold market and consider high quality, dividend paying mining stocks as great investments.

My favorite growth miner has been Agnico Eagle from Canada as they control costs and own mines in stable mining jurisdictions. The GDX is also worth holding IMO because it encompasses the top 25 mining companies performance.

So, there is my bias and yes, “talking my book” to a degree. My portfolio is considerably broader than this 5-10 % allocation.

GLTA

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

If you think Trump contributed to ‘uncertainty’ (i.e. not the causal factor) would you respond the same way?

‘…If you put all the ‘factors’ precipitating the global economy into a pile, has there ever been a somewhat similar situation?…”

My answer is ‘yes.’

IMHO, the only ‘similar situation,’ with a confluence of destructive social, economic, political factors etc.. is the fall of Rome–global upheaval at the time.

Now, we are dealing with uncertainty. What sort of portfolio is advised?

Gory to Mishkraine
Gory to Mishkraine
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

You will be selling your gold stocks too early, rather than too late, this time around. Gold bullion does look expensive so you could swap it for silver, with the gold:silver ratio at 100.
With bitcoin, you’d only have been better off if it wasn’t hosted on one of the many exchanges that have been hacked down the years.

Frosty
Frosty
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

The Feds only tools to deal with trumps lack of management skill are jawboning the markets, lower interest rates and injecting liquidity.

2 out of 3 are supporting of an outsized run-up in gold, the 1st is a maybe.

Given the lack of ownership of gold or preferably high quality mining stocks as an asset these days, I am thinking it has considerable room to run.

Who would have thought bitcoin would have hit $100k..

Diversification?

peelo
peelo
1 year ago

It reminds me of political capital. A bunch of financial credibility capital has been spent here, with reasonable question whether the (ill-conceived) result is anywhere closer. Sort of like the art of the deal with Ukraine, to date.

Trump had Wilbur Ross “back in the day” to pull his fat out of the fire in Atlantic City, and as Commerce Sec. in the last term. Now he has Howard Lutnick, which says a lot to me about the contrasts and the evolution here. A glance across his top echelons says similar things about law enforcement, financial policing, etc.

Last edited 1 year ago by peelo
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago

Trump is perfectly illustrating why “central planning” doesn’t work and never will, there is no way for one person, computer, AI, or whatever to factor in all the possible scenarios that may be at play in any given system.

Trump and his cult may think he’s capable but anyone with a functioning brain knows this will all end badly as does all central planning. The clock is ticking, 1379 days till Trump’s presidency ends.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Isn’t it interesting how the hard-core Libertarians have joined hands with the hard-core Left to attack the Middle who want to change what is clearly a failed economic policy? It is as if they both see the Middle as their prime enemy and although their respective philosophies are direct opposites they are united with the same goal of destroying or at least muzzling the Moderates. In Europe we see the hard-core Left allying with hard-core Islam with a similar goal although I do no equate hard-core Libertarians with hard-core Islamists I do see the same pattern. Curious isn’t it?

peelo
peelo
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

This seems a hastily shoved-together collection of straw men, together with staining the straw men with a “hard core Left” and “hard core Islam” set of dog-whistle labels, to avoid addressing the argument made. It is a neat way to skirt the actual issue raised and blow blaring dog whistles. As if new events don’t always put different bedfellows, excuse me, coalitions together, though I don’t accept the labels or formulation here as anything much besides inflammatory and baiting. Straight from the old playbook of Murray Chotiner, Nixon’s admittedly brilliant advisor, and Roy Cohn.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

The interesting thing is how cults (and by definition the mentally ill people within) have been in control of large parts of the world for so long. Whether it’s religion A controlling X parts of the world, or religion B controlling Y parts or religion C controlling Z parts of the world.

The word “religion” here is a catch all phrase for those that belong to the “old gods” religions (Islam/Judaism/Christianity/etc) and the “new gods” (Socialism, Communism, Capitalism, etc) and anything in between.

Of course all of these “systems” were setup to control and manage the dimwitted because there would be too much chaos otherwise as history has shown but we’ve reached a point of nearly 8 billion cult members and incompatibility between the operating systems of control and depleting resources.

I don’t know where it leads but it won’t be good. When the whole system starts breaking down, best to be in a part of the world that doesn’t have these controls. Got exit strategy?

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Insightful, so I don’t understand the no votes. The rise of Abrahamic religions (and the Age of Pisces) established a certain mindset, beginning with the fall from grace, eternal sin etc etc. with a set of (close-minded) values and beliefs that still persist today. I don’t think they were set up to control chaos, per se. Rather for a few ‘superior’ humans to control people generally, with ‘heaven’ as the ultimate lure.

As for the system starts breaking down,’ we’re there, NOW. ‘Got exit strategy,’ you’re kidding, right? The last time the age changed, it took hundreds of years (think Rome)

Frosty
Frosty
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

As a Reagan Republican, I see trump as a far right radical that leans heavily towards fascism and authoritarianism. He is a delusional seditionist and bankrupt narcissist with no moral or business compass.

Trump promised the business community relief from government interference and now he demands: Where they buy raw materials, Where they build their factories & Who they hire, all while destroying international markets for their products.

Quite frankly, trump is a liar, a shit stirring fool and no friend of business.

Our economy was working just fine compared to trumps insane tariff war. Trump has no regard for this “middle” you speak of.

Are you completely clueless as to the global destruction of trust and economic activity that trump is promoting as a solution?

DOGE is saving nothing and the proposed Republican budget is more bloated than ever with defense spending rocketing upward for no possible benefit to society.

Soldiers fighting and bombs flying do not produce anything, they create debt and destroy the economic activity that pays taxes and debts.

Trumps policies are Anti-American and will bring economic activity to a screeching halt for the purpose of his illusory need for a re-set.

This is not making America Great. It is destroying the economic leader of the free world.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

The economy was working? In that you are joining up with the Left that claimed the same thing and put Trump’s election victory as some type of mental aberration when the reality was the economy was not working for regular people. The growth in employment was totally do to government hiring and the enormous amount of money Biden just gave away to anybody and everybody connected to the Democrat party. You claim to be a Republican but if you are then you are RINO, the group that worked with Democrats to bring about this economic disaster while filling their own pockets.

Anthony
Anthony
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

yes, the economy was working. that doesn’t mean it was perfect. We had inflation in large part because of covid and the Trump shutdown (Trump is the only one who ordered a national shutdown), his berating the fed into a $3T easing package, and then sending Americans stimulus checks up to $1,400. That was all Trump. Biden didn’t help matters, but it was the same rationale of covid knock-on. That plus disruption of supply chain. Want to blame someone, blame Trump, he’s no less guilty than Biden. And now, he’s literally enacting inflation into law with his idiotic tariff while telling cult members that no, slapping tariffs on goods doesn’t cause inflation.

Trump’s best buddy is trying to put millions out of work with driverless cars. Google too along with other companies working on driverless cars whose overt goal is to replace human truck drivers, cabbies, Uber drivers with AI. Millions will lose jobs. Same across other work, like illustration work, translation, editing, copy writers etc…

the economy is always changing and leaves people in the dust. Instead of facing reality and dealing with it, MAGA elects a magic man who promises to turn back time to 1950.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Anthony

The government is working when every dollar it (borrows) and spends contributes to about 13 cents of production. Give me a break. You have a model for failure, and don’t realize it, because you have accepted what you are told by the media/teachers. Try thinking for yourself.

About 20 years ago, I gave a lecture to an auditorium full of students about what I perceived as their future in a globalized world.One comment drew particular ire; that they would not enjoy the same standard of living as their parents, unless… To survive, the US must compete GLOBALLY.

It is unfortunate that Trump misunderstands ‘compete’ as tariffs. Tariffs are taxes–punitive by nature, and resistant to innovation.

Meanwhile, you sound like Malthus. without the ‘logic.’

Last edited 1 year ago by Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

And you might be right. However, you demonstrate singularity in thinking, which is a dead end in itself. If you begin (without Trump) and look at the causal factors that led to such things as USAID, $37T debt, grossly ineffective government…), you might have a different perspective.

It is always easier to kill the messenger.

Last edited 1 year ago by Flingel Bunt
MelvinRich
MelvinRich
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

Reagan and Clinton were successful because they encouraged free trade. Reagan broke union monopolies that were keeping prices artificially high and promoted the IT revolution. Clinton promoted NAFTA, an excellent agreement that promoted his administration’s prosperity while balancing the budget.

JeffD
JeffD
1 year ago

Serious question: What conditions would have to be in place for The Great Deflation to occur starting from where the economy is at today? I will not submit any followups or responses to commentary regarding this question. Thank you.

Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  JeffD

Highly automated factories and fully autonomous cars and trucks is going to trigger your Great Deflation as many people will be put out of work and no, the vast majority won’t be able to be retrained as “robotic engineers” and so forth.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo

We can all become internet influencers and do podcasts with other internet influencers while automation and robots do all the real work. The Human mind is very good at finding creative ways to pass the time and avoid boredom.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo

Yes, this is what will happen without innovation. Likely, the same thoughts prevailed during the Great Depression.
Now try thinking about alternative outcomes (known and unknown), of which socialism is only one possibility.

The starting point to the issue implied in JeffD’s comment is ‘human needs,’ not necessarily the Marlow model.

Perhaps ‘carnalism,’ where we gorge on anything-goes porn, inflatable-to-robotic partners, VR and AI combined into ecstasy etc… Think Pompeii on a global scale.

Last edited 1 year ago by Flingel Bunt
rinky stingpiece
rinky stingpiece
1 year ago
Reply to  JeffD

fuel energy for automation (including extracting materials and manufacturing of automation systems) has to be cheaper than food for human slaves…
falling energy supplies and falling human supplies are also deflationary.

peelo
peelo
1 year ago

“falling energy supplies and falling human supplies are also deflationary.”

Interesting. Supply and demand says a supply constraint raises prices, right? So, based on what you wrote — the Black Plague, a supply constraint on labor supply, didn’t raise the surviving workers’ fortunes and cost to employers, a world-historical change? And 1973 Oil Embargo, a supply constraint on fuel, didn’t raise the price of gas?

Frosty
Frosty
1 year ago
Reply to  JeffD

This “Great deflation” you speak of. How would the massive debt be paid in the face of falling asset values and a deflated dollar? You do realize that you are promoting economic chaos and the fall of our nation?

We win through economic activity and an increase in the velocity of the dollar. We lose by slowing global economic activity.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Frosty

Except the economic activity is focused on the low-labor-cost countries.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  JeffD

Um, how about non-Fed-influenced interest rate comprising inflation, duration, and a risk-free yield of 2% ( a nice round number). Interest rates double. Bonds are worth less, stock prices down by 75% or so. Ditto real estate… ‘Money’ implodes

Now, what happens. A decrease in living standard unless you have something of tangible value, eg _ _ _ _.

Peace
Peace
1 year ago

US is chasing the impossible dream.
It wants to be manufacturing power house and complaining 50 years of trade deficit.
This is impossible. US owns world central bank ( FED ) which issue USD to run the
world economy ( trading, etc ). Without USD world economy will grind to a halt. Then countries have to do barter system or trade with their own currencies.
Now let see – US wants to be a manufacturing power house and doesn’t want trade deficit. Then countries will have no USD to buy American products.If US wants to sell its products like hot cakes, let other countries to buy with their own currencies. US won’t surrender USD as reserve currency status. Trump already stated clearly.
US can’t be both world central bank and manufacturing power house.
US as a world central bank, it has responsibility to flush the world with USD through trade deficit to grease the world economy. US has exobitant privilege to have USD as world reserve currency. US is very rich because of this privilege. Responsible trade deficit can run for another 50 years. Don’t wast like 2.5+ trillion in Afghan war or military budget of 1 trillion.
If US chase this impossible dream it can end up with WW3 and possibly has to given up the reserve currency status.
Nobody will win in this nuclear age.

Last edited 1 year ago by Peace
rinky stingpiece
rinky stingpiece
1 year ago
Reply to  Peace

No… the USD outside the USA are not created by the US, they are created by foreign shadowbanks. Your whole thesis is flawed.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Peace

Having our Dollar as a reserve currency is not an advantage when it comes to trade for the US since it gives surplus countries undue control over our monetary policy.

Peace
Peace
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

US print paper and buy the real goods. On paper you have trade deficit. Over 50 years you have deficit and still rich cos you inflate away these debt.
Gold price was 35$ in 1971 and now over 3000$. You inflated away these debt. Debt to GDP rise cos of irresponsible waste. US is rich tremendously because of reserve currency. All the money spent come back to US and invest in stock market or buy bonds to get some interest. You have to pay low interest. The more you print the more stock market go up and the richer the people. House price is also one way up. Next 20 years millionaire will be homeless. Only rich are trillionaires. Billionaires are ordinary people.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Peace

Go the next step. Did gold change, or did the $ change?

peelo
peelo
1 year ago
Reply to  Peace

We export financial services, the dollar infrastructure, world security (such as shipping), and education. And all sorts of intangibles like that. For that, we import actual goods. Or at least, we did until Stable Genius decided to implement his fantasies of the 1980’s, which were out of date then (more like mercantilism of the English 1780’s). Before this admin, our setup had kept us rich and relatively low-pollution for generations now. And now it will be trashed so we can have cities full of factories with no environmental regulation, making t-shirts. And it seems we couldn’t set up friendly trading blocs to create a middle ground. No, we had to set the family furniture afire to get warm, while daddy threw the savings into his own strange and failing financial fantasy casino. The interest rates say it.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  peelo

Our setup kept us rich because it took advantage: intangibles traded for tangibles. Then, the rest of the world resented how the US abused them, and bifurcated.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
1 year ago
Reply to  Peace

Tell me again why the Holy Dollar must be the unit of global account. What if it was gold?

Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago

Only $200? I guess we will take what we can get. But it needs to continue in perpetuity, not only through the end of 2025. Prices are not suddenly going to deflate at the end of 2025!

I asked Perplexity how much something like this might cost, as the cost was not listed in the original article and it told me $168B annually. This doesn’t sound like a high amount given all the trillions that team Trump thinks they are going to save with their new tariffs and cost cuttings. Also, compare theis cost against a nearly $1 TRILLION annual defence (nee offense) budget).

Scoop: Top Senate Dems propose emergency Social Security payment boost

Stephen Neukam

10 Apr 2025

Top Senate Democrats plan to unveil legislation that would provide an emergency $200 monthly increase in Social Security benefits through the end of the year, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It’s the party’s latest effort to highlight the Trump administration’s tariff policies and now-scrapped DOGE-driven plans for service reductions to the popular benefits program.

• Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will introduce the Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act, according to a source familiar with the plans.

• It’s a brainchild of the caucus’s Social Security War Room.

Driving the news: The Democrats argue that the $200-a-month increase is necessary to shield beneficiaries from price increases stemming from Trump’s tariff policies.

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/10/chuck-schumer-elizabeth-warren-senate-democrats-social-security

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo

The vote buying schemes never end

Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

A real shame that the Dems can’t just hand out cash like Musk for the purposes of buying votes!

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo

If this is democrats plan to woo back voters, go ahead and put a nail in the coffin of this party. Most people here know I can’t stand Trump but I’ll take bad orange man over any more of this boomer socialism.

I’m sick of hearing how we need to raise caps and tax people more to give these socialist leeches more money. “You paid for it” remember so why are we constantly having to dump more money into your already “paid for” scheme?

I’m sorry if you’re not making ends meet as a senior but that’s not my problem. You had 65 years to prepare for this stage in life and if you failed then that’s on you, not me or anyone under the age of 65.

This country is so screwed up, we should be helping the young start families not depleting them of money to pay for expiring leeches.

Maximus Minimus
Maximus Minimus
1 year ago

The trend has been for some time to move production to cheaper sweatshops from China, which has become too expensive.
However, as the volume decline, the quality and price of Chinese branded products increased by leaps and bounds, so that they command premium prices.
Despite rerouting, I expect some empty icons on the Amazon.
But who knows, maybe the Mexican narcos will diversify into smuggling Makita and Milwaukee tools. Not to mention millions of gadgets for the summer season.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago

Just bring the sweat shops home. There must be a lot of Americans willing to sew underwear all day for $2/hr.

Anon1970
Anon1970
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Illegal aliens from China who sneaked into the US via the Southern border during the Biden years.

Maximus Minimus
Maximus Minimus
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Is the $2/hr based on quality of education/craftsmanship in international wage arbitrage, or some pumped up number based on reserve currency status?

Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

That’s the problem. USA sweatshop workers want $20/hr + benefits.

rinky stingpiece
rinky stingpiece
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

…or build and maintain robotic factories to replace exploited foreign slaves.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Just go commando…the problem solves itself

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

The machines do the sewing now and they can do it cheaper than the sweatshops. There are companies selling “Sewbots” that can make entire garments now and once set up they work 24 hours a day for 365 days with no days off. The days of the third-world sweatshop will come to an end.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago

Just what all businesses want to avoid: uncertainty. Hard to plan for the future when Trump can change his mind so often.

Cancel my orders. No wait. Please get them to me asap. I wonder what it will be in a few days?

I see that Venezuela has cancelled Chevron’s access to oil there. Two shiploads were even called back. Chevron was supplying 250,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude to the US. Oh well. We can ask Canada for more.

rinky stingpiece
rinky stingpiece
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Venezuela would be better off becoming a state of the USA… a win-win for both.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

“I’m not a patriot, Scarlett. I don’t care a fig for the Confederacy or the Union either, for that matter. I care about myself.”

Rhett Butler

Tom Bergerson
Tom Bergerson
1 year ago

On May 5th a new rule goes into effect. Prior to then de minimus orders are allowed to enter duty free and bypass Customs.

Hopefully I can get my Chinese order before then. It will be close

The closing of the de minimus rule is going to put an end to about $100 billion of annual imports. Unless something changes, my gut is telling me we are going to see a smaller effect like when they shut the economy for COVID. Lots of commerce is just going to stop.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Tom Bergerson

How are you liking the uncertainty ?

Stu
Stu
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Isn’t uncertainty part of any massive change? Sure as hell has been for me. How best to deal with it, has always been patience, while awaiting clarity.

Many things we have absolutely no control over. We can prepare our best, seek guidance, keep a level head, and prepare to adjust accordingly.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Stu

Many of us can take advantage of long term change, providing we can identify it. Businesses that thrive are particularly good at managing change.

However, very few can deal with the types of sudden, repeating, rapid change that Trump brings.

As many businesses are discovering.

“ How best to deal with it, has always been patience, while awaiting clarity.”

Sure. Patience. Let’s suspend all our business plans for the next 4 years, while Trump keeps changing the rules. We’ll have clarity when he’s gone.

MMchenry
MMchenry
1 year ago
Reply to  Tom Bergerson

Oh shit, I didn’t realize I can still get cheap a** stuff though Temu and de minimus exemption. Cool I’ll hop right one the (BIG) loophole!

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  MMchenry

Lol! That’s funny. You don’t know what he is buying for his business.

rinky stingpiece
rinky stingpiece
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Lol! That’s funny. You don’t know that he is buying for his business.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 year ago
Reply to  MMchenry

Temu is fantastic….low low prices
I thought it was a scam first time I saw it, gave it a go and now I am a repeat customer

Augustine
Augustine
1 year ago

The Russians liken Trump to Gorbachev who, trying to salvage and empower an empire in decline, only ended up hastening its demise.

SleemoG
SleemoG
1 year ago
Reply to  Augustine

Well that’s apt, since all this is being done for Putin, aka Trump’s daddy. 0% tariffs on Russian goods, remember.

Lefteris
Lefteris
1 year ago
Reply to  Augustine

Gorbachev on the other hand had said that he was puzzled the EEC (EU) wanted to recreate the USSR. And we’re seeing strange things lately over there (cancelling election results, banning very popular right-wing parties, announcing defense plans nobody can finance, etc). If the USA goes down (or eventually splits over conflicting interests), who will keep the EU intact?
I think the world is currently over-reacting to the tariff drama. And the Americans are predicting again (for the 100th time) the demise of their own country, without seeing what’s going on elsewhere.
PS. The name EEC – European Economic Community, with which I grew up, was the official name of the then union. It was given by Herman Goring in a conference in Berlin in 1942 about the Nazi plan to unite Europe economically. Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft.

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