Oil prices and bond yields are lower on alleged progress.
Even Bigger Than Before
Truth Social: Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
May 06, 2026, 5:41 AM
Exactly what has Iran agreed to? But here are the rumors.
U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say
Axios reports U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say
The big picture: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
- Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
Reality check: The White House believes the Iranian leadership is divided and it may be hard to forge consensus across the different factions. Some U.S. officials remain skeptical that even an initial deal will be reached.
- U.S. officials have expressed optimism about a deal at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, but have yet to reach one.
- But the two U.S. officials said President Trump’s decision to back off his newly announced operation in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on progress in the talks.
Behind the scenes: The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is being negotiated between Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
- In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions.
- Those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said.
- Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, according to a U.S. official.
- If the negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, the U.S. official said.
Zoom in: The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is being actively negotiated, with three sources saying it would be at least 12 years and one putting 15 as a likely landing spot. Iran proposed a 5-year moratorium on enrichment and the U.S. demanded 20.
- Iran would commit in the MOU to never seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponization-related activities. According to a U.S. official, the parties are discussing a clause whereby Iran would commit not to operate underground nuclear facilities.
- Iran would also commit to an enhanced inspections regime, including snap inspections by UN inspectors, according to the U.S. official.
- The U.S. would commit as part of the MOU to a gradual lifting of the sanctions imposed on Iran and the gradual release of billions of dollars in Iranian funds that are frozen around the world.
What they’re saying: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that “we don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day.”
- “This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” he added.
- But Rubio also called some of Iran’s top leaders “insane in the brain” and said it was unclear whether they would make a deal.
Strait Still Closed
WSJ: Ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday received verbal warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy, which said the waterway remains blocked.
A recording of the message was received by the Greek owner of a ship waiting to cross the strait and was viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The message, in English, warned all vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman that any approaching the strait without permission or outside the specified route, “will be targeted.” The owner said the ship was acting on the warning.
Iran’s state broadcaster said around 1,500 vessels are currently on their way to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and added that they wouldn’t be able to make the voyage without permission from the Revolutionary Guard.
Iran Portrays Pause as US Climb Down
WSJ: While President Trump said he had “mutually agreed” to a pause in the U.S. operation to guide commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media characterized the move as a climb down because of Tehran’s dominance of the critical chokepoint. Trump paused the mission “after American forces failed to secure passage of vessels without Iran’s permission,” Iran’s state-owned Press TV said.
Iranian hard-line lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian said the decision represented a failure for the Americans. “Another humiliating defeat for the evil American regime against the great nation of Iran,” he said. Trump said in a Truth Social post that “Great Progress” toward a peace agreement with Iran meant he would pause the 48-hour old initiative. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan reposted Trump’s message, adding “Once beaten, twice shy.”
Shippers Say Project Freedom Lacked Clarity
WSJ: A day after President Trump pulled the plug on the U.S. effort to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, shipowners and brokers said the initiative lacked clarity and sufficient security guarantees, adding that ships have moved clear of the waterway to avoid coming under attack.
In online chats among Greek, German and Nordic shipowners the U.S. effort, which Trump called “Project Freedom,” was parodied as “Project Taco,” shorthand for Trump Always Chickens Out, and “Project Pause.” Trump said Tuesday he had agreed to pause the operation after a request from Pakistan and other countries, to give space for negotiations. The shipowners said they wouldn’t attempt any transits until there was a peace deal.
Two American-flagged ships were led out from the strait under Project Freedom, before it was paused on Tuesday, less than 48 hours after it went into effect. Lloyd’s List Intelligence data show transits falling to 36 crossings in the past six days, down from 44 the previous week. Most of those vessels are local trade and aren’t targeted by either Iran or the U.S.
There’s never any believable clarity from this administration, only lies.
Oil and Bond Yields Down
More amazing manipulations.
Treasury Yields
Who’s In Control?
This Was Supposed to be Over in 3-5 Days
Reflections on Iran’s “Only Weapon”
Framework for Negotiation
There is no deal. But assume for a second there is a framework for negotiation.
The negotiation will take months, not weeks.
Q: And what will the US have accomplished?
A: The US will accept the deal that was on the table before Trump started this idiotic war. That deal will be no better than what Obama negotiated in 2015.
Trump Cancels “Operation Freedom” But We Have a new Goal
Yesterday, I commented Trump Cancels “Operation Freedom” But We Have a new Goal
It took all of one day for Operation Freedom to fail.
Rubio: “The facts clearly bear out, the United States of America holds all the cards. … Our preference is for the Strait to be open, to the way it’s supposed to be, back to the way it was. … That’s what we have to get back to, and that’s the goal here.”
The new goal is to return to the status quo of things before Trump started this stupid war,
Infrastructure damage is massive and there would only be a gradual release of oil through the strait, assuming there is a deal and it holds.
Gasoline prices will remain elevated, so will fertilizer and aluminum prices.
Trump will have effectively lost the war. It will show up at the midterm elections.
What is in the 1 page memorandum?
Apparently nothing about the Strait of Hormuz, nothing about Iran’s nuclear enrichment, nothing about reparations, nothing of significance.
Basically just an agreement to maintain a ceasefire and start negotiations. Which could go on for many months.
Hard to imagine Trump being patient enough to negotiate for months.
The whole thing is theater that Trump wants to use to keep the markets steady for a month. Trump will hold up the MOU, that is essentially an agenda to be negotiated, and he will tell the world “we almost have a deal”.
He is very good at keeping the stock markets from collapsing. The Nikkei index just opened up 4%.
He doesn’t have months with the election around the corner and likely potential for a hostile congress eager for revenge, therefore he has no patience. No worries, it was all part of the extensive preplanning, NOT.
How close is the proposed deal to the Obama deal that got torn up.
They sound pretty similar except Iran is getting more money and sanctions lifted.
Recent info on alternative trading routes Iran has been able to use during the blockade
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-turkey-russia-caspian-china/33751260.html
Iran loaded 3 tankers at Kharg island yesterday. So much for shutting fields because they ran out of storage. Trump said Iran’s oil fields and pipelines would explode last week.
Iran hit more U.S. military targets than has been reported, satellite images (washingtonpost.com)
Only thing exploding is Tacos brain
That is very interesting information! I read that a number of empty Iranian tankers were seen entering the Gulf again today, presumably to fill up and head out again.
Trump makes irrational demands to Iran, Axios, a Mossad propaganda organ reports on demands as negotiations, insiders buy futures, equity markets scream higher, insiders liquidate, Iran says “are you nuts? Market retraces part of the gains.
MAGA and AIPAC insiders get rich, SEC sits on its hands. Rinse and repeat,
The reason why “Project Freedom” was suspended after 1 day !!
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
We don’t need no stinkin’ allies !
I suppose that might be true, but it’s a little late for the Kingdom to start pretending they weren’t fully on board with the attempted regime change war on Iran – just because they don’t want Yanbu port or their east-west pipeline destroyed by Iran.
What it says is that the ‘enemies’ of Iran in the gulf liked the old ways far better than these days
Pressurs on the US to go away
I saw this too. Apparently Trump notified all of the Gulf ‘allies’ via his truth social post announcing Project Freedom! The Saudis were pissed. The White House tried to clean it up by saying that they notified everyone “in advance”, which is of course true, since the announcement was made the night before. But they didn’t inform them prior to Trump’s public post.
Mish:
ACWI: Mind the hourly and daily (exhaustion) Gap!
ACWI 30 March 2026 to 6 May 2026 32/76/78 hours :: x/2.5x/2.5x (close enough)
and oil futures from Dec 2025 15/35/28/22 days :: x/2.5x/2x’/1.5x ….
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-scandal-that-should-be-the-end-for-fratboy-defense-secretary-pete-hegseth/
Only time will tell if this is just more wishful thinking from Trump. No response yet from Iran. Every day that passes means another 10+ mb of oil not produced in the Persian Gulf. For 67 days now. Even if negotiations begin, it is unlikely that the strait will fully reopen, with Iran still preventing oil shipments. I can see them saying for every 1 mb of Iranian oil they can ship, they will allow 1 mb of oil from Iraq out, but no one else.
Meanwhile, US inventories continue to draw down as we ship more overseas:
Week ended May 5:
Crude oil: Draw of 8.1 mb
SPR: Draw of 5.2 mb
Cushing: Draw of 1 mb
Gasoline: Draw of 6.1 mb
Distillates: Draw of 4.6 mb
US prices will rise as inventories are drawn down.
yes they replied: it looks like it was officially denied by Iran:
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/news/breaking#13665185
I’m shocked, shocked.
Apparently Iran will provide their response to the latest US proposal through a Pakistani mediator on Thursday.
The first step would be for Iran to agree to a 1 page memo that sets up new negotiations.
In the meantime Iran intends to control the strait and continue to charge tolls.
I can see Iran saying we want our toll until this is resolved. If it is resolved favourably we will refund.
“A: The US will accept the deal that was on the table before Trump started this idiotic war. That deal will be no better than what Obama negotiated in 2015.”
Regarding nuclear issues, maybe.
What about control of the Strait? What about US bases in the region?
The final deal – or de facto situation – will be way worse than what Obama negotiated
There’s a reason Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize and stupid Trump didn’t.
Obama might have deserved an award for the JCPOA, but he won the Nobel because he was black.
and wasnt Bush.
Does this mean that whoever replaces the current president will also receive the Nobel Prize.
To be fair, he’s still half white.
What are the odds Iran would follow these 2 peace concessions below. I think several years back we gave Iran billions to not enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. It appear they still did anyway after taking the money. I seriously doubt any peace concession last much more than a year or until the next president.
Iran would commit in the MOU to never seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponization-related activities. According to a U.S. official, the parties are discussing a clause whereby Iran would commit not to operate underground nuclear facilities.Iran would also commit to an enhanced inspections regime, including snap inspections by UN inspectors, according to the U.S. official.
If Iran has nuclear material, it already has a nuclear weapon. I don’t understand why people are so hung up on a “kaboom” bomb over a dirty bomb. Either one will ruin an area for 100+ years. Just look at Chernobyl for reference, there was no “kaboom” bomb there and it’s still a radioactive dead zone.
The far more dangerous weapon Iran has, as we are all finding out, is a choke hold on oil flow which is bringing the global economy to its knees. Just wait till the Middle East figures out they can wield far more power on a united front than as separate actors. You can’t invade all the Middle East countries once they unite, population 500 million+.
“I think several years back we gave Iran billions to not enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. It appear they still did anyway after taking the money.”
You’re showing some profound ignorance of the sequence of events here.
You think wrong. Iran was never “given” money. Rather, we took the freeze off of accounts that held their own money. (Just like we did with Russia. But then we actually confiscated Russia’s money eventually.)
And according to everyone involved, Iran was keeping to their part of the deal. Until Trump tore it up. And then they decided to pursue enrichment again.
“I think several years back we gave Iran billions to not enrich uranium for nuclear weapons”
Um, no, we gave Iran *their* own money BACK that had been held in Western banking institutions. When the Iranian Revolution happened in 1979, that money was frozen.
Everyone I’m pleased to report I just spoke to Jojo and I have exclusive news: America has just forced Iran to agree to the concept of a framework of a potential discussion that may theoretically get us back to where we were before the war in five years! MAGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I want to hear from Doug78 because his opinion is 100% gold, just listen to what he says and the opposite will happen just like JoJo!
There are ways to profit from people that are consistently wrong, just do the opposite and watch the money roll in.
Is she up-to-date on her meds?
Off Topic: Mish, your thoughts on the 62 mile data center in Utah?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k-k7jxk-jA
Will draw more power than entire state of Utah currently.
All that capex is going to go to the same place as the capex of: Lucent, Global Crossing, Level-3, Pets.com, et. al.
It’s the dotcom bubble on steroids! I don’t think anyone is doing the electric power math for all this stuff. And just wait for an EMP to hit. oh boy.
It doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to put in a 62 mile data center in a dry state. Where are they going to get the water to cool things?
They’re gonna milkshake straw all your aquifer water, buddy
Don’t know but they are already having water shortages there. All I know is Mish better buy solar panels right now before everyone gets the same idea. Electric rates will go thru the solar roof!
I am aware of it but have not looked at it.
It is idiotic if it needs power fromColorado
Or cooling
Trump is talking to Netanyahu today.
Time to buy more oil stocks.
China, ‘deeply distressed,’ calls for an end to the U.S.-Iran war
China is in a position to influence Iran, given its close economic and political ties to the gulf nation.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91537575/china-deeply-distressed-calls-end-u-s-iran-war
I no doubt believe China would like an end to this (they understand human suffering), but I don’t believe they are insisting that it’s Iran that needs to stop.
It’s optics to build pressure (and most likely not on Iran) and thus theater (yet at the same time true) because China has it’s eyes on another prize and needs America unable to act to secure it.
China simply wants to sell things and make money. In a way, this make sense, the current CPC claim to legitimacy is based on rising standards of living.
The problem is that the Americans do not play fair and will not play fair, as they pick of China’s sources of supply, one by one.
is this all doom and gloom or a possible reality? TRUMP’S ECONOMIC WAR ON IRAN BACKFIRING. US FACES DEPRESSION & FINANCIAL CRASH.. PROF MICHAEL HUDSON
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXDKBcGmT1g
This is worth a read but I copied the key gist of the article.
https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-daily-morning-brew-77c
The textbook example is the Yom Kippur War of October 1973. A coalition led by Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. The United States airlifted weapons to Israel. OPEC responded with an oil embargo. This is, by any reasonable standard, a lot of bad news arriving in rapid succession.
The S&P 500’s response? It went up. For three weeks after the outbreak of hostilities, the index gained 2.3%. It peaked the day after the UN ceasefire. Only then did it begin the descent that would eventually take it down over 40% by the 1974 low a decline worse than either world war had produced.
The reason, viewed from fifty years away, is simple. Nobody alive at the time had any framework for processing an oil shock. The oil price had been essentially stable for twenty-five years. It had nudged upward after the end of the dollar-gold peg in 1971, but nothing nothing had prepared anyone for what happened next: a 277% increase in six months.
If you applied that same multiplier to today’s oil prices, Brent crude would hit $275 by December. I am not predicting this. I am doing arithmetic to illustrate a point about the limits of imagination. In 1973, $12 oil was unthinkable until it arrived. Today, $275 oil is unthinkable. The gap between unthinkable and happening has historically been bridged by a very short, very unpleasant Tuesday.
ty
As part of the Israel First: Epstein/Trump agenda ~ Israel, Fox News, the WSJ and all of the other Israeli loyal broadcasters will continue to string us along while selling this pease nonsense.
Israel is simply using the US military and our tax dollars in their theological war.
Hormuz remains closed and the US & global economy are being shattered.
Any questions?
“Mainstream Media” is now “Israel Media”, use the correct terms. And my question is, how are you profiting from this? Haven’t heard you bark about silver in a while.
Exactly what I’ve been saying now for a while. The profit play is simple. TLT whips up/down inversely based on the 20 year Treasury. XLE or XOP (or any oil stocks) whips inversely to whatever oil is doing.
So you go long one, short the other or vice versa. Sell calls/puts according to which way the wind is blowing (profit) and just wait till it changes direction or stalls (buy back & reload), rinse & repeat profits.
So I have bought back oil stock calls cheap, sold my oil puts and sold TLT calls as it rises. Rinse and repeat.
FXY is up too which is a different play entirely.
And we have an alleged peace deal the same day Trump threatens to blow them up again.
Easy profits like this won’t last forever because…
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Not only is there no deal, there’s no framework for negotiations. It’s all bullshit coming from Trump. Iran will never go back to what they – according to the Omani foreign minister- offered on Feb 26. They will not give up enrichment or their missiles or their new, developing system of charging tolls (in conjunction with Oman) or their support for the Axis of Resistance. They also want all sanctions ended. They’ll probably accept there being no formal reparations from the U.S. and will effectively get that through the tolls.
Go along with those things or the strait stays closed.
Ron Paul on whether this was Project Freedom or Project Market Manipulation
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2026/05/06/ron-paul-asks-project-freedom-or-project-market-manipulation/
Get over it, they’re better than you! You can’t do shit, take ya toys & go home.
Shut up your mouth.
Shut up your mouth.
Shut up your mouth.
EPIC Fury? More like, EPIC Failure!
Epstein Distraction.
Operation Septic Fury
Check out the Axios reporter Barak Ravid and his ties to Israeli intelligence
That breathless stenographer has made insiders billions in profits
Why should the war stop? Good for Israel, good for insiders
“… Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before…”
This is a problematic statement, as he’s seems to suggest that this is about the latest offer by America which comes with a 48hr timeline for agreement.
This has to be a bluff because I can’t see any rational to attack Iran before meeting with China. If this isn’t a bluff I’m sorry for not only everyone reading this, but everyone in the world by what my President forced on you, as well as myself, without our consent.
The Grifter in Chief has no timelines cuz he can’t enforce anything, they tried the bombing & got their ass handed to them. He’s no different to a poodle barking at a lion. They tried their highest level & depleted 90% of their arsenal & Iran is laughing at the clown.
Taco is a big (and getting bigger) bully who is all talk and little do.
What a piece of work, especially for a president. He makes biden look better by the day and this is an extreme observation.
The seeds of the next 9/11 have been sown.
They may not germinate until after Trump’s dead & buried but germinate they will.
“Oh how could they do such a thing to us?!? So eeeevvil!”
How stupid does one have to be to come up with a lie like this “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end,” If one has agreed why would they have to agree what they already agreed? Man this malignant narcissist is destroying his country & dragging the whole world down with it.
Maybe the Administration had a typo and it was supposed to be “Operation Septic Fury”.
That’s the code name for his diaper changes.
yawn.
The Grifter in Chiefs lies do not move the market, they’re dumping the oil in a thin market & use his lies as cover, everyone know he’s a degenerate liar.
Is anybody listening anymore . . .
Trump is economically and financially illiterate. He is also the biggest liar the world has ever witnessed. Amazing that this POS is the world’s most powerful person. He and his family are making billions off insider trading, and nobody says a thing. The cult followers just look away. Sad
Watching him peddle his bullshit in front of those child athletes yesterday made me nauseous.
New Member Of Trump’s Iran Negotiating Team Comes From FDD Think Tank
Nick Stewart, the head of the FDD’s lobbying arm, has joined the office of US envoy Steve Witkoff.
FDD was founded in 2001 as “Emet” (אמת), which is Hebrew for “truth”. In the initial documents filed for tax-exempt status with the Internal Revenue Service, FDD’s stated mission was to “provide education to enhance Israel’s image in North America and the public’s understanding of issues affecting Israeli-Arab relations.
John Mearsheimer in 2007, Muhammad Idrees Ahmad in 2014, and Ofira Seliktar in 2018 have described FDD as part of the Israel lobby in the United States. Sima Vaknin-Gil, director general of Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs, stated that the FDD works in conjunction with the Israeli government, including the ministry.
It’s like the Three Amigos. Tres judias. Who better to send to negotiate with Iran than a gay Jew? I guess Ru Paul was unavailable.
https://www.zola.com/wedding/danielandnick
Woke back in vogue? or is it DEI?
Globohomoschlomo in action
All the manipulation does is delay the price explosion higher. Every day that goes by reserves are depleting & demand hasn’t fallen in line with supply. The Grifter in Chief will soon see oil re-price to it’s real price north of $200 & no amount of illusions will bring it back down again only capitulation to all of Iran’s demands.
Epstein Fury
This rug-pull has Orange Cheeto dust all over it
He’s just waiting for the market to be thin & dumping millions of barrels in a single minute, 3.5% down moves in a minute & then dumping just enough to keep the price falling but it will always bounce back, soon they will have no reserves to dump & watch it go parabolic. Are these degenerates willing to deplete the reserves to a level where they do not have enough & have to ration? Time is on Iran’s side, they showed time & again for 47 years they can absorb immense pain, the US economy will collapse in a few days if they had to absorb that kind of pain.
It’s funny, it’s like “they” have no idea how a country can come together and adopt non-conventional fighting methods when attacked by overwhelming force (see: US Revolution)…never-mind a culture that’s thousands of years old.
The force wasn’t overwhelming though was it, a paper cut on Iran & they responded with overwhelming force & that’s why the US BEGGED for a ceasefire.