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Trump Warns of ‘Scary’ Inflation, Says He Would Win if He Ran Again

Scary Inflation

Trump says Surging Prices Will ‘Ravage Our Country’

Former President Donald Trump told Yahoo Finance that inflation is one of the issues that will help him determine if he will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

“And it’s very scary when you look at gasoline from $1.87 a gallon when I was president, it went from $1.87 and now it’s well over $5 that it’s going to go a lot higher,” the 45th President predicted.

“It looks to me like inflation is going to ravage our country,” Trump told Yahoo Finance.

Gas Price Fact Check

According to AAA Gas prices were $2.186 a year ago and $3.204 today a far cry from Trump’s proclamation. 

Does Trump purposely lie because he sees some sort of benefit it in?

I’d Beat Beat DeSantis Like I’d Beat Everyone Else

Trump offered this challenge on October 3, I’d Beat Beat DeSantis Like I’d Beat Everyone Else

“If I faced him, I’d beat him like I would beat everyone else,” Trump declared, even as he said he doesn’t actually expect a showdown.

“I don’t think I will face him,” he predicted about what DeSantis and other Republicans would do if he got into the race. “I think most people would drop out, I think he would drop out.”

The arrogance never stops. It can’t. It’s part of what makes Trump, Trump.

I still do not believe he will run, but if he does, I doubt it would be without challengers. 

John Bolton SuperPac

Here’s a poll I put no faith in, although it seems easy to believe. Bolton says Trump takes big hit among Republican voters; Biden and Trump both suffer huge political damage.

A new national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters revealed huge political damage for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden stemming from the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The deepest impact for Trump was suffering a stunning 20-point drop with 2024 Republican primary voters (46% in July to 26% in September). The poll finds Trump virtually tied (26.2%-25.2%) with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. This dramatic movement is the strongest evidence yet that Republican voters are tiring of Trump. 57% of Republicans say ‘to move forward we need new leaders and fresh faces.’ The poll was conducted after the withdrawal from Afghanistan was completed.

President Biden also saw a 10-point plunge in his popularity overall, but dropped a shocking 30-points with Independents, the key swing voters in the General Election.

Bolton Poll 

Statement by John Bolton

“These numbers will probably come as a shock to Donald Trump. After 20 years in Afghanistan, it’s clear that Americans are unhappy with leaving as we did. Voters were smart enough to see that President Trump started the withdrawal and legitimized the Taliban through negotiations. They recognize that withdrawal carries more risks for the homeland than keeping a U.S. and NATO military presence in Afghanistan. Biden bears the responsibly for the final embarrassing moments and his corresponding drop in support reflects that, but it’s not lost on anyone that Trump, like Biden, wanted to withdraw and shares the blame for the failure. National security matters to voters, especially when failure leads to greater risks, so you rightly see conservatives quickly considering options other than Donald Trump.”

Bolton is about as biased against Trump as they come. 

And while it’s easy to believe support for both Trump and Biden have taken dives, the Bolton poll stands alone with Trump and DeSantis tied.

Straw Poll 

A straw poll for the 2024 GOP presidential nominee taken at the Conservative Political Action Conference in July gave DeSantis high marks.

When asked whom attendees would vote for in the Republican primary if it were held that day, 70 percent of respondents said Trump. DeSantis came in second with 21 percent of the vote.

When surveying respondents without Trump as an option, however, DeSantis topped the poll at 68 percent.

In August, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 60 percent of adults nationwide felt that it would be bad for the country if Trump were to run for president in 2024.

Polls Useless

Polls this early are simply useless even if there was any consistency in them. 

The wide variances make them amusing but laughable.

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55 Comments
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TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
4 years ago
Lets wait for the investigations of Trump in NY and Georgia to run out before predicting his viability as a presidential candidate. How anyone with a scrap of political astuteness and/or ethical objectivity could vote for him I will never understand, but if he is found to have been a serial Russian money launderer and tax evader for the last couple of decades its hard to believe he’ll ever run again let alone be free. 
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
4 years ago
Mish how about adding to your table the prices of crude and gasoline from the 2006-2008 period?  Remind people of how soon the forget about past “omg inflation!”
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
I doubt Trump will run. I’m not even sure he’ll be healthy enough to run. As long as he bloviates and gets press coverage, he’ll continue to bloviate.
Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
To have a successful coup in a Democracy, you have certain things which are essential to do first.
1. You need to create a fear of something to justify it. Normally that is the fear of socialism/communism
2. You need to undermine the faith of the people in the credibility of the press, and drive them to get their new from alternate sources, where favorable versions of the news can be more easily planted
3. You need to destroy faith in the election process. If people believe that elections are fair, and represent the majority opinion, they will accept whomever is elected, but if they believe elections are corrupt, a coup becomes morally justified.
4. The people need to believe that the current system of government is no longer the best, and there is no particular reason to defend it.
Just because all four things are present does not mean that you will have a coup attempt, nor that if there is one, it will be successful, but you can’t have one without all four things. In my opinion, we have all four, which will make the next few elections very interesting. Can faith in the election process be restored? Can faith in the news services be restored? Can people remember the value of freedom, compared to the alternatives?
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
1. “You need to create a fear of something to justify it. Normally that is the fear of socialism/communism”
We are supposed to fear capitalism, according to the Democrats. It isn’t equity and is unfair.
2. “You need to undermine the faith of the people in the credibility of
the press, and drive them to get their new from alternate sources, where
favorable versions of the news can be more easily planted”
The press smeared Ivermectin as a horse dewormer. Actually, IVM is on the WHO’s list of essential human medicines. IVM has 60 positive studies/trials for use against Covid,, but the press is silent about that and the success India had with IVM.
The press has been taken over by leftist political activists, undermining faith in the credibility of the press.
3.” You need to destroy faith in the election process.”
Opposition to election integrity laws, undermines faith in elections. It is Democrats who oppose election integrity laws.
4. “The people need to believe that the current system of government is
no longer the best, and there is no particular reason to defend it.”
It is Democrats who are working to tear down our current system of government. It is a constitutional republic, but Democrats refer to it as a democracy, when it is not. Democrats are constantly attacking our Constitutional rights, which stand in the way of Marxism.
The coup was against Trump.
There were 57,000 disputed ballots in Maricopa County, Arizona, according to the forensic audit. Democrats are trying to obstruct forensic audits in several states. What are Democrats trying to hide?
Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Does it matter which side attempts the coup? Thanks for reinforcing my statement that both sides believe in all four essential things. I had earlier projected that the US would make it until about 2036. I think now that I may have been overly optimistic, as there is a high risk that our current form of government will be replaced in the near future. I have no opinion as to whether the successor will be Fascism, Socialism, or something else. Of course, it’s possible that the US will back away from the precipice, or perhaps further decay from here will at least be at a slower pace. Perhaps the media will work hard to separate news from opinion (and news from advertising), and regain trust. Perhaps the parties will agree on needed election reforms, and people will regain faith in the process. Perhaps schools and the media will begin teaching the benefits of freedom, and why it is superior to alternatives. Perhaps. Or, perhaps not.
numike
numike
4 years ago
We have no theory of inflation Inflation is the biggest debate in macro. The models don’t work. Forecasting is hard. Forecasting inflation is especially tricky. And
economists are, in the main, bad at it. This is, as one might expect, an
especially unhappy problem for the economists working in central banks
who are guiding policy which is itself targeting a given rate of
inflation. https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/we-have-no-theory-of-inflation
oee
oee
4 years ago
We have evidence about his electoral lack of sucess. He lost the popular vote twice and lost the electoral college once. He lost the House in 2018, and lost the Senate in 2020. What is talking about. Yes, he should run again.  He will run on the platform of < I will kill an additional 400000 people if you elect me. 
Pacioli
Pacioli
4 years ago
Reply to  oee
It’s hilarious when idiots blame American covid deaths on Trump, but all the other deaths worldwide are not the fault of those countries’ president. I’m not a huge Trump person, but your hypocrisy is showing!
rktbrkr
rktbrkr
4 years ago
Agree, Bolton poll is junk. Afgan exit was messy but 19 years overdue. America breathed a huge sigh of relief when we finally left that quagmire behind. The loss of 13 GIs was tragic but if we hyad stayed we would have been losing GIs like that weekly without fanfare 
MrGrummpy
MrGrummpy
4 years ago
Gas Buddy says Trump is right about the price of gas during his term.  It was indeed lower in late April 2019.  See chart here:
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Reply to  MrGrummpy
When oil was < $50 barrel ? Thanks captain obvious.
Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
Last year when people weren’t driving because they were staying home because of COVID… Supply and demand.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
The next election is pretty far off and who knows what will happen between then and now. Meanwhile Glenn Greenwald gave a link to an interesting and amusing analysis of Facebook, power and the press. 
anoop
anoop
4 years ago
i’m scared of inflation.
caradoc-again
caradoc-again
4 years ago
The only time it will be sensible to want to become President is after the collapse that hasn’t happened yet.
Once the dust has settled a rebuild can begin.
Until then all anyone can do is delay (to avoid blame) or accelerate that collapse (go down in history as a failure).
2028 or 2032 as dust unlikely to have settled by 2024.
No avoiding the collapse.
Democritus
Democritus
4 years ago
Last time I fueled up, it was 1.76 euro/liter… Would be very very happy if I could get $5/gallon here in the Netherlands.
Anon1970
Anon1970
4 years ago
Reply to  Democritus
That is about $7.71 per US gallon using an exchange rate of 1 Euro = $1.15 US.
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Democritus
Europe is about 5 years ahead of us. We’ll catch up.
Jackula
Jackula
4 years ago
DeSantis is an odds on early favorite. He knows how to play to his base without losing the independent vote. I think Biden’s non-scientifically based vaccine mandates for leaky Covid vaccines are also a big part of the reason why his popularity is dropping, not to mention the economy is kinda sucky for a big chunk of the population. I would much prefer to see the Trumpster disappear from political life. If he runs in 2024 I’m going to be out of the country during the elections, pretty good chance of a serious crisis.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
The reason we partly have inflation is because of the debt incurred under Trump.
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years

The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.

KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
You have serious blue blinders on. You blame Trump for the national debt? Absurd.
You can replace Trump with any recent president and say the same. And we’ve always had a huge debt, but high inflation only recently. Covid is the only explanation that makes sense.
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Just got back from 9 days on the road.
An excellent Fall Colors trip to Ouray, Colorado
Tengen
Tengen
4 years ago
Trump is right to view inflation as a problem. He is probably right about winning the nomination if he runs again. He might even win the general election, but it would be close.
That said, he would do nothing to fix our monetary issues and would almost certainly do his utmost to exacerbate them. His rhetoric and his actions are worlds (galaxies?) apart.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago

Calendar says its 2021. A lot of stuff can happen between now and 2024.  We are effectively in a civil war according to Ken Burns. Once civilians start killing each other, it could quickly go awry.

amigator
amigator
4 years ago
Trumpolini likes to stretch the truth.  I do remember paying under two dollars at Costco during the Pandemic (which you won’t let us forget started in his term).  
Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
Trump knows his MAGA cultish base is too stupid to understand basic supply and demand economics. Last year, people stayed home and didn’t drive. They couldn’t even give oil away as tankers had no place to store it as COVID protocols reduced oil consumption drastically. Of course oil tanked under Trump because we were driving a lot less. It always cracks me up when Trump supporters driving their big pick up trucks tell me Biden is responsible for the increase in fuel costs. Their big trucks on the road had far more to do with it than Biden. 

If anything, Trump’s lower prices he brags about actually hurt American oil production since to remove oil from the ground in the United States and off the coast of the United States it takes quite a bit more money to drill than the much easier to access oil in places like the Middle East. If oil isn’t at a certain cost per barrel, American production gets capped. 

amigator
amigator
4 years ago
Reply to  Bungalow Bill
Yes low prices are bad…. Much better to double the price to help our businesses..
Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
Reply to  amigator

If you truly want to rid yourself of the filth of Middle Eastern oil and all the problems that comes with it, you will suck it up and pay more at the pump since it cost more to extract domestic oil out of the ground.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Bungalow Bill
The US doesn’t import any middle eastern oil or of they do, it’s very tiny amounts. Most of the imported oil comes from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela (or rather it used to come from there).
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Bungalow Bill
So, how do you explain the recent rapid rise in worldwide energy prices? Is it also because the MAGA cult has too many pickup trucks?
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
How do you explain the rise in energy prices in 2007?
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
Must be the MAGA cult.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Bolton: “…Trump, like Biden, wanted to withdraw and shares the blame for the failure.”
Bolton knows the failure happened in 2001. The FBI knew the hijackers were learning how to fly airplanes. Moussaui had also been arrested. 9/11 should never have happened, thus the never ending war in Afghanistan should never have happened.
njbr
njbr
4 years ago
How about a few data points….
Gas prices per gallon by year
2001 1.53
2002 1.44
2003 1.63
2004 1.92
2005 2.33
2006 2.63
2007 2.84
2008 3.31
2009 2.40
2010 2.83
2011 3.57
2012 3.69
2013 3.58
2014 3.42
2015 2.51
2016 2.20
2017 2.46
2018 2.79
2019 2.69
2020 2.24
Gasoline as a measure of inflation is a fools errand. 
High prices are more correlated to a expanding economy.
Anon1970
Anon1970
4 years ago
Reply to  njbr
Regular gas was $3.99 earlier this week at Costco in Concord, CA. It is typically 60 cents higher in some of the more affluent suburbs in the East Bay.
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  njbr
it’s not an expanding economy. Historically prices were driven far more by supply disruptions. Not increased demand.
Rbm
Rbm
4 years ago
Trump will run if he thinks he can win or he needs to stave off lawsuits for four years.  
Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
Or his creditors… 
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
So, when is Trump going to jail? Do they finally have the goods on him?
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Good contribution to the chorus of inflation talk, for whatever reason.
It adds pressure to the blockheads to drop their “transitory” BS, and paves the way to becomes mainstream talk.
This is the e-mail sent by an online retailer:
<snip>
To our clients,
The world is experiencing unprecedented disruption in supply chains,
due to a variety of factors stemming from the global pandemic.
This has greatly affected the technical clothing industry, including us as well.
Disruptions have many effects, and we’re seeing delays in new arrivals,
shipments being cancelled outright. Consequently, we’re projecting a
lower-than-usual stock level available for you over the fall and winter seasons.
</snip>
Oil (Brent) broke through 80$ a barrel, and it’s just the beginning.
Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
If inflation’s getting political, how will the Fed react? Will they act earlier to try and get it under control? The politicians won’t want rate hikes near an election. Not the Democrats anyway.
tbergerson
tbergerson
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
Complicated.  First thing is that JPows term ends in February.  So if he wants to be reappointed, he will need to play nice.  Pocahontas hates him.  I dont know how close she and Potemkin Joe are so no clue whether her hate makes reappointment less probable.  Then there are the Crew or Cabal or whatever they are called.  They will want an MMT person and they will be loud about it.  Finally there is whatever the Deep State that has ultimate authority wants and whether they will put in their two cents and pressure Biden accordingly.
Powell also had some financial transactions in front of Fed actions and there are some who think he will be gone just because of the perception of impropriety.  Of course since Clinton the lines which used to define what was appropriate have been crossed more and more easily with each successive admin
The next question is how bought in to the idea of inflation expectations are the members of the FOMC.  Expectations have climbed quite a bit, so for any of them whose theoretical toolkit has that in high prominence, they will be more hawkish.
Unless things accelerate, they will stick with their wind down of QE, which Powell said in the most recent Q&A would be done next summer.  The first rate hike would then almost certainly be after the elections, unless again inflation accelerates, which seems unlikely.  But you never know.
As for a political Fed, note that Bernanke DID announce more QE in FRONT of the 2012 Presidential election, which juiced markets and helped Obama against Romney.  One would hope that Powell or whoever succeeds him wouldnt be asked to tweak things in front of the election, but again, now that there is nothing sacred and no lines separating the appropriate from the inappropriate in DC and basically no more shared truth, anything can happen
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
It’s not because of the FED. They haven’t changed policy for over a decade. It’s because of Covid. The only thing that makes sense.
davebarnes2
davebarnes2
4 years ago
“Trump is making waves over inflation and says he would be Florida Governor “
nope.
Fat Donnie is too fat to be Ron DeathSatan.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  davebarnes2
DeSantis isn’t the one who obstructed HCQ, Ivermectin and other early outpatient treatments for Covid-19. That honor goes to the public health agencies, who turned their back on the American people, for the benefit of Big Pharma.
The vaccine injuries keep piling up.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
4 years ago
Trump’s statements should be considered as entertainment purposes only.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Trump did NOT use any words pertaining to fuel grade or national average.  Trump’s exact words, as quoted by Mish:  
“gasoline from $1.87 a gallon when I was president, it went from $1.87 and now it’s well over $5″
Do you see any mention of fuel grade or national average prices? BECAUSE I DON’T.
Does Trump have a problem putting a sentence together? YES.
Does Trump use hyperbole?  Assuming he knows what what hyperbole is? YES.
FYI, In rhetoric, hyperbole is an obvious exaggeration; an extravagant statement or assertion not intended to be understood literally.
Does Trump misconstrue facts to create hyperbole? Yes.  Was gas sold at $1.87 a gallon in some location in the US during his term? Was gas sold at $5 a gallon during Biden’s term, so far?  I observed the low price at various times at discount fuel stations. The high price was likely in California.
However, using Mish’s data, Biden has increased average fuel prices by about 50%. That’s a fact!
davebarnes2
davebarnes2
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Gasoline hit a low of $1.28/gal in Tulsa, OK in April 2020.
Gasoline is currently $5.20 USD/gal in Halifax, NS. And, Canada is almost the USA, eh?
Data source = http://gasbuddy.com
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  davebarnes2
Given the current  turmoil in the energy markets, Trump is also very likely to be right in his projection of still higher prices.
Rbm
Rbm
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab

Lets not forget gas prices were low because demand was tanked because of shutting down the economy.   They are high now because supply chain disruptions and lack of output.   

Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
How did Biden “increase average fuel prices?” 

Apparently you believe the president sets these prices and it has nothing to do with supply and demand, noting Americans stayed home and didn’t drive as much in Trump’s final year in office.

Pacioli
Pacioli
4 years ago
Reply to  Bungalow Bill
@ Bungalow – do you honestly not understand how the Biden admin has wreaked havoc on the ‘supply’ side of the supply/demand equation? 
It’s hard to tell if you’re being facetious or not, but if you genuinely have any question as to whether Biden’s presidency has been disastrous for the energy industry (and most industries), then you are not being factual.
And it’s not Biden really – he has no clue what planet he’s on. It’s whoever is pulling the strings.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
“Does Trump purposely lie because he sees some sort of benefit it in?”
Trump lies first and foremost because he is a pathological liar……but yes, he knows Americans fear inflation and they recognize that it’s under-measured. Especially people on fixed incomes, because they feel it the most.
It’s an easy talking point, easy to blame on Biden (never mind Trump is just as culpable) ……and he knows it won’t make any difference  when he (if elected) does nothing at all about it, because once he’s elected it does not matter. It’s just a convenient “drain the swamp” platform plank.
“Elect me and I will slay inflation like a dragon….and I’ll lower taxes again.” I can hear it now. 
68% like DeSantis? What a miserable candidate. Even Rubio would be better, imho.
Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
If you go back and read Donald Trump’s tweets as he was gearing up to run for President, you saw him constantly attacking Obama and the Federal Reserve for quantitativeeasing along with attacks about the rising national debt. When Trump became president he almost instantly claimed the worst economy ever was turned into the greatest economy ever as he begged for more quantitative easing and signed almost $8 trillion in new debt into law.

Now we have the inflation that Trump warned about. The problem is, he didn’t stick to his guns when it came to his pre 2017 beliefs that he tweeted. He, like most who go to Washington, got drunk on the ease of printing dollars (or making them digitally) and growing debt. He owns this just like Obama owns this. The problem is his uneducated base will ignore these truths and claim Biden wrecked the greatest economy ever in a matter of months. Obviously, if Trump’s economy went south this quickly, it wasn’t the greatest ever.

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