By applying pressure on both sides, I expect Trump will succeed on a good deal.
Good Move by Trump, No NATO
I am pleased to report Trump Says He and Putin Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending Ukraine War
President Trump said he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Wednesday had agreed to open immediate talks to end the war in Ukraine in a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” between the two leaders.
Hegseth on Wednesday called the prospect of Ukraine returning to its pre-2014 borders “an unrealistic objective.” That represents a rhetorical shift for the U.S., which under the Biden administration said that Russia needed to negotiate an outcome with Ukraine. U.S. officials had only privately conceded that Ukraine could reach an agreement with Russia by agreeing to a cease-fire along existing battle lines in Ukraine.
He also took Ukraine’s accession into the political-military bloc off the table: “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”
Zelensky said last month that he could accept a cease-fire that effectively would leave occupied territory in Moscow’s hands if the rest of Ukraine were given protection by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Alexander Vindman, a former White House national security council adviser under the Biden administration, called Hegseth’s statement on NATO a “complete capitulation” and a “major blow to U.S. national security” that will embolden the Russian leader, who has demanded that Ukraine drop its ambitions to join the alliance.
Hegseth didn’t address the extent of weapons and military support the U.S. would provide Ukraine. According to the State Department, as of Jan. 20, the U.S. had provided Ukraine with $65.9 billion in military support. That has slowed significantly under the Trump administration.
“We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” Hegseth said.
Hegseth Three Key Points
- “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”
- Hegseth called the prospect of Ukraine returning to its pre-2014 borders “an unrealistic objective.”
- “We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”
Ukraine is in no position to demand anything.
A Peace Deal Threat to Security?!
As for Alexander Vindman’s comment that NATO a “complete capitulation” and a “major blow to U.S. national security” that will embolden the Russian leader … I suggest we send Vindman to the front line.
The notion that a peace deal is a threat to security when Putin could not even defeat Ukraine and is seriously weakened militarily and economically is ridiculous.
The only way Russia would ever agree to talks is to take the UN off the table. Trump understands Putin’s red lines.
What’s Trump’s Threat Against Putin?
All we have seen so far is that Zelensky is impotent. He will have to take whatever terms Putin and Trump agree to.
So, why should Putin deal at all?
The answer is weapons for minerals.
Trump’s Idea to Exchange Aid for Rare Earths
Please consider Ukraine Open to Trump’s Idea to Exchange Aid for Rare Earths—But There’s a Catch
President Trump has indicated he is open to supplying Ukraine with more weapons in exchange for access to the country’s mineral resources. Ukraine is on board, but putting the plan into practice might not be so easy: Many of the minerals of greatest interest to the U.S. are in areas under Russian occupation or threatened by Moscow’s advance.
As a result, access to valuable Ukrainian natural resources will depend, at least in part, on the battle for eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are currently advancing slowly but steadily.
That’s especially true for rare earths, a collection of minerals that have become essential in certain high-tech industries, including defense and renewable energy—in which Trump has expressed particular interest. Currently, the majority of the world’s supply of rare earths come from China.
“We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earths and other things,” Trump said, speaking at the White House on Monday.
Though rare earth deposits have been found in several parts of Ukraine, by far the largest known field is in territory that spans the frontline in eastern Ukraine, according to maps published by the Ukrainian Geological Survey, the state regulator for mineral resources.
Western experts expressed some skepticism that some of Ukraine’s minerals—including rare earths—could be mined anytime in the near future.
“The biggest flaw with this plan is that most reserves are located in areas of Ukraine that are under Russian control or very close to front lines, meaning no one will be able to mine and process the materials,” said Wolf-Christian Paes, a senior fellow for armed conflict at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “These assets will be hard to access without a lasting peace in Ukraine. A ceasefire isn’t enough.”
In addition, rare earths are very expensive to mine, and the known deposits in Ukraine are much smaller than those in the U.S., said George Ingall, a price analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.
Minerals Unavailable
Q: Does it matter?
A: No
What matters to Putin is Trump’s threat to give more weapons to Ukraine to get them.
Thus, Trump is pressuring both Ukraine and Russia. With Ukraine in no position to bargain for anything.
McCain’s “Legacy” Lives On
On August 26, 2018, I wrote McCain’s “Legacy” Lives On: What “Legacy” Is That?
McCain’s Legacy
- In the 15-year war in Afghanistan wasting over a trillion dollars.
- In drone policy, where the US military gets to act as prosecutor, judge and jury, where innocent lives are tossed aside as “collateral damage”.
- in support of useless weapons systems like the F-35 that McCain supported.
- In asinine foreign policy in Syria and Iran.
- In hypocrites and comedians like Kathy Griffin singing the praise of McCain.
- In mainstream media looking the other way when thousands of innocent children are killed in Yemen.
- In support of torture programs despite McCain himself being tortured.
- In support of holding people with no charge in prisons in Cuba.
- In support of meddling in Ukraine while accusing Russia of meddling in the US.
- In support of sanctions that kill or harm innocent people.
What’s the Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?
On February 24, 2022, I discussed The Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.
What Happened in Ukraine?
The mess today in Ukraine has its roots in the 2014 when democratically elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych was toppled in a US-backed coup.
Q: Why did the US want to get rid of Yanukovych?
A: Because he was against Ukraine joining NATO.
McCain dined with Svoboda Party leader Oleg Tyagnibok. The Svoboda Party is a group of neo-Nazis.
The citizens of Ukraine were used as pawns in yet another US mission that backfired.
Well who cares about Neo-Nazis as long as they want Ukraine in NATO.
And that’s the rest of the story US media will not discuss.
This no way absolves Putin, but US meddling backfires again, and again, and again.
US Meddling
US meddling made a mess in Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, Israel, and damn near every place we have meddled.
The way to stop meddling is to impose a severe penalty of those who support such actions. Guess what. Meddling would stop instantaneously.
I propose Lindsey Graham should stay in Ukraine and lead the charge. Senator Chuck Schumer should join him Graham on the front line.
We cannot afford these idiotic wars and history suggests we should not try even if we could afford them. We wasted trillions upon trillions of dollars and all we have done is make more enemies.
Mish Flashbacks
August 27, 2022: Ukraine Violent Stalemate Sets In, How Long Can It Last?
Ultimately, this will end in a negotiated settlement.
How long can Ukraine deal with 60% inflation? EU with energy costs? Russia with difficulty in getting parts and losing military equipment?
September 7, 2022: Q&A on Putin and Energy Price Caps, Does Anyone Have a Better Idea?
Two Good Ideas
- End the sanctions.
- Prepare for a negotiated settlement whether Ukraine likes it or not.
Instead, we are doing the opposite, compete with people suggesting there are no batter things to do than something that is downright asinine.
November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?
A Tweet from NATO appears to back a negotiated peace in Ukraine. That was followed hours later by an official denial. What gives?
…
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
March 16, 2024: Ukraine Won’t Win the War, It’s Time for a New Strategy
What’s the Goal?
On November 7, 2023, I asked If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?
We still don’t have a clearly defined goal or a clearly defined amount of money we are willing to spend.
But we do know that support for endless wars is not unlimited.
President Biden on Putin
On March 26, President Biden proclaimed “For God’s Sake, this Man Cannot Remain in Power”
The Wall Street Journal and perpetual warmongers agreed.
On March 29 I pointed out all the loopholes in sanctions on Russia, For discussion, please see Misguided Souls Still Do Not Understand This Simple Truth: Sanctions Don’t Work
In 2022, I said the war would end in a negotiated settlement and nobody would win.
What did I get wrong?
The sad thing is US meddling precipitated this whole sorry affair.
It’s time for a new strategy and a goal: Negotiated settlement.
If we supply Ukraine with anything, we should only do so if it aids that goal. For now, we still have no goals.
Of all my comments above this set from 2023 was the best.
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
People told me I was wrong in response to each of those posts. The Chamberlain brigade was out in force despite Putin being too weak to threaten any NATO country.
Have we had enough death and destruction yet, accelerated by political events in the US?
I think so.
Meanwhile, please make a note that we are here due to US meddling, supported by neocons, the WSJ, and senators McCain and Graham every step of the way.
Even House Speaker Mike Johnson got in on the act after pledging no more aid to Ukraine.
Trump will put an end to this nonsense. Thank you president Trump.
The partition of The Ukraine, i.e.: “the border region”, which is what the name means, was always inevitable, as it has always been time and again in history in that region.
The delusions of those trying to invoke “Chamberlain” notwithstanding, the outcome was inevitable from the start.
Donald Trump is now Neville Chamberlain. An utter disgrace. Thanks Trump voters!
You can always go to Ukraine and fight like the jihadis did in Afghanistan (and won).
Chamberlain was actually an astute leader. Britain was in no position in 1938 to start a war and he knew Britain would lose the war in an even worse outcome than happened with Britains effective defeat in 1945 ( yes, Hitler was defeated, but so was Britain as they failed in their stated aim of declaring war in September 1939 of liberating Poland).
“The unnecessary war”
Given what he knew at the time, Chamberlain made the smart move. Three countries had guaranteed Czechoslovakia: Great Britain, France, and the USSR. Had they all honored their pledge Nazi Germany would have collapsed – that’s the good news. The bad news you would have ended up with Soviet forces embedded in Central Europe. With much of Europeans leaning left and communist 5th columns everywhere, the iron curtain may have been drawn at the English channel in the 40s. Chamberlain’s play was to give the Nazis what they wanted and trust they would then turn east for lebensraum. Stalin, not a fool cut the Molotov- Ribbentorp pact to partition Poland and gain time for war. At the time, Chamberlain knew of the gulags , while the Nazi extermination camps weren’t fully operational.
Get your boots on and get yourself over to the eastern front with your Nazi friends then.
Some people are talkers, others are doers. Men with Ukraine flags on their facebook profiles are talkers while the jihadis that went to fight in Afghanistan were doers.
Ah, the appeasement narrative.
I agree with much of the philosophy of this article but qualify with this comment. Do not belittle the achievements of the Russian military in this war. Ukraine had eight years to prepare for this war. We know from comments by Angela Merkel that that is exactly what they did. With the defense in depth positions they held I doubt any NATO nation except perhaps (emphasis on perhaps) Turkey and the United States could have stormed the Ukraine positions. Russia will probably emerge from this conflict in a much stronger position than her adversaries. Nevertheless they are not a threat to NATO unless we make them a threat. Our diplomats should attempt to get some sort of amicable relationship with Russia.
Russia could have won the war much sooner and with fewer casualties had they really taken their gloves off.
Why is the main airport still open and why are the bridges between Ukraine and other countries still standing?
Russian troops could have entered from Belorussia as well.
Furthermore, Ukraine has been getting intelligence and satellite data from the US and other western countries to help them in their targetting.
Why do you think so many Russian Generals were killed during the early phase of the war?
And as far as Vindman is concerned, he should have never received a security clearance based on his background and connections to Ukraine.
He should have been court-martialed and been thrown in the brigg
A complete and total capitulation to Putin. Trump and his republican enablers are selling out one of our allies again. Why would Europe or Ukraine agree to this?
Although the conversation went as expected(Trump capitulating,) this was an even more pathetic performance by Trump than Helsinki. He is Putin’s lap dog.
Based on what? On Russia’s economy being a fraction the size of the US’s?
I thought you Nazis were saying that Russia’s economy was suffering? Make your mind up. These ideas might sound good coming out of your mouth, but they are fictional and delusional. Why do you want so many millions of people dead in The Ukraine? Why do you want so much Democrat embezzlement and money-laundering of tax-payer funds to support the ethnic cleansing of ethnically-Russian former-TheUkraine citizens?! You’re weird.
It’s not up to the anti-democratic EU or fascist The Ukraine and it’s ethnic cleansing Nazis. Why would any liberal democracy want to fund Ukrainian fascism?!
Mish, I mean NO offense. But, there is a naivetee’ to your statement:
“Have we had enough death and destruction yet, accelerated by political events in the US? I think so.”
THE POINT OF ALL WARS, since the 1950’s, has been to FEED THE M.I.C.
PERIOD! END OF STORY.
Not one skirmish, “War on Terror” and “Defending Democracy” (YADA YADA) is meant to be TRUE.
The entire war complex has been run to enrich the CEO’s and Employees of the M.I.C. PERIOD!
Once we get that through our heads, all of the “reasons” for Wars and the SETTLEMENTS and the “AGREEMENTS” can be seen for what they ARE: THEATER, or CIRCUS EVENTS.
The PRESS fills out headlines with “reasons” for this and that and the entire M.I.C. is pleased to see that because they know that they are SHUTTING UP THE OPPOSITION TO THEIR GREED!
GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEADS: wars are not fought for anything other than money.
There will be a deal that allows the US to walk away. It cannot end the war, because Russia has to make sure.
I agree. The US just needs to get out of the situation. We never belonged in it.
But you do belong to it, because The Ukraine is important in the world economy.
“The notion that a peace deal is a threat to security when Putin could not even defeat Ukraine and is seriously weakened militarily and economically is ridiculous.”
Still living in fantasy land, I see…
I am one of those replying to you and trying to point out to you what’s the real situation on the ground and what’s really happening in both Russia and Ukraine (which I both know intimately well for the reasons I gave) every time that you come up with your “the war will end with negotiations which will leave everybody unhappy” delusion.
The anglo-euro-NATO war to Russia in Ukraine is coming to its natural end: capitulation of the extremist and illegitimate regime put in power by the Americans in 2014.
My wife, who is from the Donbas where we also have an apartment in one of its major cities, has a bottle of spumante ready.
The US-Russia negotiations will be around the new security architecture (basically a new Yalta) asked for by Putin for the last time in 2021, in the face of ever mounting NATO expansion and anglo-american “color revolutions” and destabilizing terrorist activities.
The US-Russia negotiations will not be about ukraine, Trump is clearly positioning himself to be able to drop Ukraine like the used condom that it is and walk away nominally leaving this failed project to the deranged EUropeans and the even more deranged Brits, which is totally fine by Putin since today’s NATO, against a peer adversary, has proved to be a paper tiger, and NATO without the US is a wet paper tiger, and everybody of real consequence around the world now knows it…
All of Trump’s moves (Canada, Greenland, Ukraine, tariffs etc etc) show he is aware of the realities of the new “multipolar” world and of the failing USA and he is seeking to carve up and consolidate the best zone of influence possible for a much scaled down US and will reach some agreement with the other two (re)emerging super-powers: Russia and China.
I generally agree with your comment. Most British do not agree with their deranged government; similarly, across the EU, growing numbers of voters are rejecting their own deranged leftist broke governments, change is in the wind: the end of the EU.
Oh I know, I am from Italy…
One of the many exceptional “gifts” to the world from the otherwise tragic NATO – Russia war in Ukraine will be the end of the evil and utterly dystopian European Union which I despise and hate with all of my heart.
Imagine not having voted for Trump this November? (I can’t either.)
Interesting interview with the ex Head of MI6 in the UK this morning (who was party to Trump’s negotiations on Afghanistan). Main point was that Trump (the master negotiator) has given away key leverage before even starting (ruling out NATO membership and giving away all of the land already taken). Ignoring whether they will both probably be part of the settlement, it is amateur to give away these items before starting.
Of course the reason for this is that Trump doesn’t actually care about Ukraine but is much more interested in what he can get out of the deal. Same for Gaza.
Like the school yard Amercia is ganging up round the bully oblivious to their morales. Shame on you.
Totally respect Mish’s view which is peace at any cost – you have been very consistent on this over the years. My point is purely about the motivations behind Trump.
..” Main point was that Trump (the master negotiator) has given away key leverage before even starting (ruling out NATO membership and giving away all of the land already taken). Ignoring whether they will both probably be part of the settlement, it is amateur to give away these items before starting.”
QUESTION: Giving away all of the land already taken?
Trump, nato, ukraine, has “NOTHING to give away”.
IT’S ALREADY GONE.
It will not come back.
Russia will not negotiate on this aspect of any deal.
Why is it that armchair warriors believe these land boundaries can magically revert to where they were prior to the war?
And just how might that be done? Will these armchair warriors fly to ukraine and enlist in the cannon/drone fodder brigades? NO, they will not. It’s always someone else that must be sacrificed, not them.
Wake up! This war was POINTLESS. In fact, Ukraine would have kept more land (and not suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths and massive infrastructure loss) if zelensky would have (been allowed to take) taken the Russian proposal offered in December 2021, which was blocked by the US/boris johnson idiocy.
Wow – you MAGA people are angry. Amazing how Rep voters have realigned with the Russia world view.
Wow – you pro Nazi, pro ethnic cleansing, anti-democrats are angry… amazing how Dem voters have realigned around Nazism and Maoism.
Interested in the source of your assertion about Nazism and Ethinc Cleansing in Ukraine. Any links you can send about this other than Putin interviews?
would the usa allow china to keep nuclear missiles in mexico or canada?
so maybe you can see why Russia doesn’t want american or british nuclear missiles in Ukraine via NATO.
NATO should not be in Ukraine. If NATO’s purpose is peace, it has no reason to be in Ukraine.
Jon L: you are ON TO IT.
THE PARADE is the war.
The TALKING is the Circus.
THE MONEY IS THE AIM.
Don’t worry about rare earth minerals or any elements required for alternative power requirements.
If Trump can make a deal with Russia and Venezuela then he’s tied up a huge percentage of the planets crude oil reserves
It’s not Trump’s job to care about Ukraine.
His job is to disentangle the US from its affairs.
Yep get that and don’t disagree. The way to do it however would simply be to stop sending arms and get Europe to step up. However, it looks more like Trump sees an opportunity to make money rather than simply to get out of it. That is the shameful thing.
What exactly do you think the Biden administration has been doing if not making money in Ukraine? Money for themselves and their co-horts.
I think Trump will try to get a tactical advantage in rare earths to leverage against China’s domination of the sector. Yes someone will make money off of this mining. I don’t think it will be Donald Trumps family, but time will tell.
“Yurp”, or rather the EU (which is not Europe), does not have the ability, credibility, legitimacy, or funding, or legal standing to stand up or step up to anything. Macron talks a good game, but France is broke, like Germany.
You think the EU or the Democrats care about The Ukraine?! Are you tripping?!
It’s about the money. It’s always about the money.
In this case money equals energy. Which Russia has a lot of.
Suggested peace deal:
HaHaHa!!! Duh Duh Duh, Dreamer much..?
I hear a cuckoo bird outside my window.
do you know what triggered the 3rd reich rise to power? WWI reparations on Germany.
If you seek punitive damages on Russia,don’t be surprized if you get WWIII.
Bwahahahahahaahaha! funny…
Historically Russia does capitulations, not negotiations.
The notion that Russia fears more American weapons is a fable: As NATO secretary Rutte has said publicly, Russia produces more weapons every quarter than the entirety of NATO from Talinn to San Diego. NATO is out of ordinance and weapons.
What is ridiculous is the assumption that Russia would want any of Europe — absolutely no evidence. Russia is now much stronger than at the beginning of the conflict, and its economy is growing much faster than any Western economy. Russia is in no hurry, comfortable with its economy of force approach: Ukraine will collapse in good time, and there is no reason to risk more Russian service men than necessary.
Russia prolly wouldn’t take europe if the EU tried to give it to them. Most of the EU is a wasteland of insolvency, 3rd world immigrant chaos, and WOKE brainwashed masses.
And, no easy way out of the WEF insanity that has “done its job” on energy production and industry.
A simpler strategy would be for Russia to create an EFTA organisation, be more prosperous, and offer the voters of the EU an alternative, looser, and more economically rational transnational union… Germany and Russia together makes sense.
What’s been shown in the Ukraine conflict : Russian forces are badly lead and their conventional tactics are laughable. They only have their nukes and KISS delivery systems which are the main threat.
Ukraine has nuclear power stations and access and technology to develop nuclear weapon grade materials. They also have the technology to develop nuclear warheads and fit them to the obsolete scud missiles left in Ukraine after “independence”. The Russians removed the nuclear warheads but left the delivery systems behind.
The west has been drip feeding Ukraine more and more advanced weapons systems to Ukraine under the promise would not develop nuclear weapon capability.
Ukraine has been crossing lots of Russian Red lines – entry into the Kursk region and now lobbing ordinance onto Russian territory without Putin resorting to tactical Nukes.
Putin and the West know the risk of all this. Trump will pressure Putin and what ever is left of the Ukraine current government to refrain themselves from going nuclear.
The costs of not finishing this conflict will be devastating if not settled asap.
It isn’t Ukraine trying to cross red lines, it’s NATO, the CIA, and MI6, who are the ones who made up those redlines to begin with.
As for badly lead and laughable tactics … this war will be studied for generations. You are just showing ignorance. This isn’t Panama, Grenada, Somalia, Afghanistan or Iraq (where the US did not “win”, by the way).
The UN off the table? Putin has been an absolute stickler quoting UN Charter articles to legitimate the mutual defense alliance with the LDNR, to offer negotiations on Feb 23 when Ukraine shelled peace keepers in Donetsk, and to invoke the right to pre-emptive defense and R2P (Responsibility to Protect).
Don’t forget that Minsk 2 was a UN Security Council Resolution, with the force of International Law.
All of these things are just signals and gestures in a game that’s fundamentally about economic and demographic facts on the ground. Much like WW2 – the outcome between the USA and Japan was inevitable, due to simple factory production rates.
What makes you think that Putin will accept the deal? You all assume he will but what if he doesn’t?
Trump will make the deal acceptable, end of.
Getting his price of oil up to current world prices and the resumption of gas supplies to Europe will do a lot to help his bottom GDP line.
All those obsolete T55’s, T70’s. T80’s, T’90’s tanks which were wiped out in Ukraine need replacing with modern stuff. Those T14 Armata’s need refining and expanding numbers – that’ll take a lot of cash.
Ukraine has no right to demand anything of the US, but neither does the US have any right to expect anything from Ukraine. Trump might be willing to play a modern day Chamberlin and appease Putin through a betrayal of Ukraine. But there is no reason Zelensky needs to be a modern day Edvard Beneš (the 1938 president of Czechoslovakia), who surrenders to the will of the great powers. The world would have been a different place if Beneš had refused to cede territory and instead fought for every inch Germany took. If Germany had been bloodied in Czechoslovakia the war in Poland may never have happened, or been delayed at the very least.
Ukraine does not have to accept the Putin peace. Ukraine can keep fighting heroically, even without the support of America, and in so doing shame the west into doing better, even if that better is too late for Ukraine.
The fate of Czechoslovakia is instructive. The people suffered under German occupation just the same, with purges and genocides, despite their peaceful surrender. A surrender to Moscow won’t save Ukraine from a horrible future.
I side with Trump here.
The US has no obligation to lift a finger for Ukraine.
He can just walk away.
Instead he is offering aid for a negotiated deal.
Ukraine can turn it down. Aid will stop.
Ukraine will certainly decline Trump’s offer of a surrender. It is better to go down fighting in dignity than to suffer under occupation. Ukraine doesn’t have to agree to face the indignity that Czechoslovakia did in 1938 when Britain betrayed them. Czechoslovakia could have fought on despite the betrayal. Ukraine can learn from that and continue the fight as well.
Who knows, maybe Trump will want to normalize relations with Russia, dropping sanctions, and even selling arms to Putin so that he can more successfully pursue the war against Ukrainians. All the more reason for Ukrainians to fight to the end.
Let’s be clear… Any negotiated deal that does not include a restoration of the 2014 borders is a surrender and Russia will only pick the war back up later on when it has rebuilt it’s military. Ukraine will be in an even worse position to resist later. Thus, Ukraine has no option but to continue the fight no matter what.
If Ukraine is all that, why did the USA incite a colur revolution and put a tv comedian in charge of the Ukraine (and billions of dollar in US aid)?????
The US had very little to do with the 2014 Maidan revolution. Sure, the US funded a few Ukrainian groups, but it is WAY overstating things to conclude that any foreign governments had a significant influence in the bringing about of the revolution. It wouldn’t have happened if there wasn’t a groundswell of support for it. The 2014 revolution was less influenced by foreign governments than most other revolutions of modern times. Heck, Russia has had more to do with Trump getting elected than the US had in the 2014 revolution (and I am NOT saying that Trump is elected BECAUSE of Russia, I am just pointing out that Russia has demonstrably tried to influence the American public).
Whether the US should have assisted Ukraine when Russia invaded is another matter. One could say that the US should just stay out of any foreign war, regardless of who is at fault. The same argument can be said for Czechoslovakia in 1938. Did Britain or France have an interest in helping Czechoslovakia resist Hitler? Would it have made a difference if they had tried?
One other point, is that if some kind of cease fire is achieved in any type of condition which is not perceived to leave Ukraine in a position of victory, the country of Ukraine is finished. If there is even the slightest perception that Ukraine was forced into a settlement under tenuous conditions that do not truly guarantee it’s security, then there will be a mass exodus of the remaining young people from Ukraine. No young people will want to remain if there is the prospect of the resumption of war. In a few years Putin will then be able to resume the war and there will be few people left to fight or mobilize. Unfortunately, no one is going to give Ukraine the equivalent of NATO security guarantees, with tens of thousands of allied troops and air forces station in the country.
Thus, an armistice without victory or NATO equivalent security guarantees means the end of Ukraine as a sovereign state. They might be able to survive as a Russian vassal state similar to Belorus, but that’s the best they can hope for, and their young population will flee. Western Europe can look forward to an influx of another 15 million refugees.
Absolute fantasy. This war was lost two years ago. The economic data shows the global declines in growth since spring 2018.
The Ukraine, aka “the Russian March”, never existed as a country before 1991, and never existed as a concept before the 20th century. It has no sovereignty, it’s even more artificial than Belgium.
You assume too much about people’s cleaving to artificial nationalist identity. Ultimately people vote with their wallets, they vote for prosperity and safety, and an end to constant bombing and a life on hold.
NY Post has an article with the map of Ukraine minerals.
https://nypost.com/2025/02/10/us-news/trump-says-ukraine-has-essentially-agreed-to-allow-the-us-access-to-500b-in-rare-earth-minerals/
A lot of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are well west of Dniper River and Kiev.
Like in Greenland?
Ukraine also shares significant blame for the position they are in. It was only in April 2024 that Ukraine lowered the draft age to 25 from 27. To this day, 18-24 year olds are STILL not eligible to be drafted!
Contrast this with the USA, where 66% of our military are under age 30 and we have no compunction about sending 18 year old into battle. Similarly with Russia.
If you believe you are in an existential fight, then everyone who can carry a weapon or contribute has to participate.
The reticence of Ukraine to avail themselves of all resources, by itself, proves that Ukraine was never serious about winning against Russia.
Check Ukrainian and Russian demographics.
You will see massive ‘waves’ caused by massive slaughter of conscription age men in WW2. Current 18-24 year olds correspond to ‘bottom’ of the birthrate wave.
Ukrainian and Russian armies are full of 40-year olds not because they have big choice but because big birthrate ‘peak’ was around 1985.
Regardless, it needed to be all-in and it wasn’t.
Conscription is slavery. Not specifically Jojo but in general there are many folk who profess to support individual liberty, don’t take my guns etc etc but then support the right of the state to seize citizens and send them to war
Which completely endorses the concept that the state, the government owns you and your children and like serfs can do what they wish with you.
They should just drape the coffins of the Ukrainian dead with Blackrock flags. That’s all they’re dying for.
So you are OK with slavery? That is what forcing anyone to die for you is. I respect those who volunteer but if your cause isn’t enough to inspire men to volunteer then perhaps your cause isn’t strong.
Those of the Donbas are ethnic Russians and fought for freedom from 2014-2022 and then voted freely to become part of Russia. Do you think men shouldn’t have free choice?
A lot of young Russians and young Ukrainians fled to other countries.
This is the consequence of Joe Biden pussyfooting Ukraine and being parsimonious with needed weapons and resources,out of fear of crossing Putin’s many “red” lines.
Biden failed Ukraine. Biden failed Israel. Biden failed the USA.
May his “legacy” reflect these failures.
“despite Putin being too weak to threaten any NATO country”
Russian trollo-sphere will disagree with you, just wait a second 🙂
But more seriously, one of contingency plans in Kremlin, as reported by people who have connections in Russian ‘power circles’, is Great Russian Revenge Army:
Time frame for this plan is disputed, some sources claim 2027, but more real deadline for Russian military re-build is 2030.
This blog is for non-fiction writers.
So far I was right and this blog was wrong.
Back in 2014 I immediately said that Russia is directly involved when propagandists wrote fantasies about ‘Ukrainian civilian war’.
Back in 2014 I immediately said that this conflict will be ugly and long when propagandists claimed that Russia will win in the blink of an eye.
Back in 2014 I immediately said that Russian troops pretending to be fake ‘rebels’ are behind MH17 kill. And guess what? Normal investigations confirmed that. Can you imagine?
Numerous times I predicted that Russia will not stop, when propagandists claimed that Russia only needs this one small concession and Russia will stop pushing into Ukraine. And guess what? Russians kept pushing forward.
Back in 2014 and 2022 I predicted that Ukrainians will resist. And guess what? They resisted. Strongly.
Edit: fixed flight number.
These are pretty lame “predictions”, and they’re not even that important.
You must have cleaned out that bong this morning.
Meanwhile, please make a note that we are here due to US meddling, supported by neocons, the WSJ, and senators McCain and Graham every step of the way.
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Your history doesn’t go back more than 10 or 12 years when it comes to Putin does it. Go back and learn about how Putin meddled in Ukraine starting in 2001.
Oh, you mean this cooperation initiative? How awful…
“Russian–Ukrainian Rapprochement of 2001: How Viable?”
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26298064
Russia will be in Moldova within a year and Baltics within 3 years. Understand me now and believe me later.
Nonsense. The Baltic countries are in NATO and any invasion would trigger Article 5. Putin may be ruthless, but he’s not stupid.
Trump will not honor Article 5 against Russia. Putin has his nuts in a vise.
NATO will collapse on its own weight without Russian invasion.
Wishful thinking by you… you need to quit the computer games and get out more often.
BTW you never commented about US meddling in 1994 (so called Budapest agreement/memorandum) when Ukraine was forced by US to had over nuclear weapons (and strategic bombers and cruise missiles).
What do you think about my suggestion to fully ‘un-meddle’ Ukrainian situation by giving back nuclear weapons to Ukraine? (and strategic bombers and cruise missiles)
Do you believe that US meddling in 1994 was somehow more legitimate?
Do you believe that other countries failed to notice that US made big pile of empty promises back in 1994? Do you believe that US ability to conclude any future foreign deals will be unaffected by that fiasco?
Its Bill Clinton’s fault, just like the 2007 housing bubble and great financial crisis is his fault.
actually Clinton repealed Glass-Steagall allowing investment (speculation) banks to own mortgages.
Chaos ensued…
Presidents are like ducks on the water in the global economic ocean.
USA needed those weapons to renew their own warhead stockpile. Ukraine need the bribe money.
everybody was happy
100% agree with you Mike. Hundreds of thousands of lives lost and injured. Billions in property damage for what…to weaken Russia. What we caused was criminal and someone should be held accountable. I say start with Victoria Nuland and end with the Ukraine flag wavers in Congress, Tony Blinken, Milley and Lloyd Austin.
Actually, Victoria the Hutt should suffer the same fate as her cousin Jabba.
Solution akin to DMZ separating the Koreas. Maybe in a few decades?
Doubt the Ukrainians would want to learn to speak and read Korean, but we can try it…
Maybe The Ukraine can return territory to Romania/Moldavia and Slovakia too?
“major blow to U.S. national security” that will embolden the Russian leader … I suggest we send Vindman to the front line.” Double thumbs up.
Chicken hawks like Vindman could sign up and be on front line tomorro. Of course he won’t, preferring instead to send your children.
Well, previous comment asked key question:
What would a peace deal look like without some sort of meaningful security guarantee for Ukraine?
For Ukraine, war ‘ending’ without any security guarantee is equal to surrender. if Ukrainians wanted to surrender, they would done that in 2014.
I clearly explained that there are only two reasonable security guarantees that Ukrainians would accept: NATO membership OR nuclear weapons…. before Zelensky done that explanation 🙂
Russian (aka Putin’s) central goal is to overthrow Ukrainian government (that is supported by overwhelming majority) to replace it with Russian-controlled puppet one (like government of Yanukovich). Land grab in Eastern Ukraine is very weak consolation prize because that allegedly disputed land is pretext for invasion, not goal. Difficult to imagine that Putin will drop his primary goal without some sort of clear military defeat.
Continued:
… that means any ‘peace agreement’ as pushed by Trump’s camp is not very realistic. But, if Trump camp will push such agreement by force, then such agreement will be very unstable one:
Ukrainians obviously will not consider legitimate any agreement that is imposed on them to legalize colonialist land grab.
On Russian side they obviously will try to create conditions for Second Ukrainian War, because it is unconceivable that Putin will drop goal to install puppet government or to conquer all or most Ukraine if puppet installation process fails.
From Russian nationalist point of view (that was voiced numerous times in Russian media), Russia simply can not ‘afford’ to have hostile Ukraine as their neighbor.
Donbas area is pro Russia because it was Stalinized.
They can’t convince Ukraine population to be lackeys for the Kremlin in any area near or west of Dniper River.
It goes back much further than that… to Catherine the Great.
you don’t express yourself like an American or even British language speaker, you sound like google translate.
Are you posting from Kiev again?
I disagree.
Gen X went from watching Democrats be the part of peace to the party of perpetual meatgrinder warfare with unlimited taxpayer expenditures. The only thing Democrats in 2025 like more than war and USAID grifting is discrimination and re-formulated marxism.
It’s absolutely crazy – when I was a kid in the 80’s the Dems were all for peaceful co-existence and accommodation with Soviets and unrestrained free speech. Today they are the party of censorship incessant warmongering with Russia. It feels like stepping into the twilight zone.
“It feels like stepping into the twilight zone.” As a history buff, for me it feels like stepping onto the typically energetic, dynamic and messy planet Earth. Republicans through WW2 over a similar time frame became arch globalists. Plenty of Dems too. For that matter, USA’s WW1 into global reach and out of it again feel similar. The anomaly might be domestic postwar USA, except gee, interventions in Iran, Vietnam, etc.
That is not true. You describe the fringe of the party not the mainstream.
The democrats have always been war mongers. They gave us ww1, ww2, Korea, Vietnam and supported the Bush wars. Their track record of military service beguiles their militant posture.
“By applying pressure on both sides, I expect Trump will succeed on a good deal.”
This made my day; finally, I see there is a good reason why Daniel Kahneman got a Nobel prize for figuring out why people are hopelessly biased.
How will the deep-state-WEF-globalists-central-bankers-neocons-warmongers apparatus move to sabotage any initiative the President advances? How will Internews and the rest of the global media censorship complex smear any peace deal besides using Vindman as their messenger?
RAND corporation bravely published an honest assessment in early 2022 that the only way of ending the Ukraine conflict was a negotiated settlement that neither side would find to be anything but disappointing. This likely outcome has been obvious for years with anyone looking at facts and realistically gauging what actual options are.
I did not see that – But I have been in the same camp on my own with posts to prove it.
The most honest and accurate assessments were made by Gonzalo Lira, who was very critical of Victoria “the Hutt” Nuland and Zelensky’s destructive policies regarding Ukraine. Unfortunately, Lira was arrested, tortured, and killed in a Ukrainian gulag because, as Plato once said, “No one is hated more than he who speaks the truth.” Unfortunately for ordinary Ukrainians getting conscripted off the streets and sent into the meatgrinder in an already lost war, they have to live in the real world where they die and their nation suffers while Zelensky & Victoria the Hutt profit.
A lot of pro-Zelensky/pro-Hutt types like to compare this war to the Winter War in Finland in 1939-1940, pointing out the large number of Soviet dead. But what makes the comparison so much more fitting is how the Finns lost more territory than the Soviets had originally demanded. Likewise, the Ukrainians have already lost more territory than the Russians originally demanded and keep losing additional territory each and every day without exception.
There are literally thousands of more qualified Ukraine experts to quote than Alexander Vindman….that haven’t committed treason. WSJ has ZERO credibility.
Russia grew more in the last few years than most of the West, which is the weakened party of this conflict, both economically and militarily.
This disagreement goes back to the Reagan administration. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, James Baker, Sec. of State, and Reagan promised Mikhail Gorbachev and Edvuard Shevardanzde that NATO “would not move 1 inch to the East”. NATO held fast thru both the Reagan and Bush-I administrations. Starting with Clinton, NATO has added over a dozen countries, many up against the borders of Russia. The State Department communiques on this subject are available online. I had read elsewhere that the line-in-the-sand for Russia would be if either Ukraine or Georgia was extended invitation to join NATO.
This is fake ‘promise’ invented by Russian propaganda.
No one was able to produce any document that backs alleged ‘promise’.
Gorbachev personally confirmed in interview that no such promise was made:
https://x.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1666474281113460736
Except a James Baker remark is not a treaty. Which would be standard. And the current elite apparently thinks treaties are mere scraps of paper anyway.
The new Republican budget would add $3 trillion to the U.S. debt over the next ten years.https://gizmodo.com/trump-gives-doge-broad-powers-as-gop-announces-budget-designed-to-screw-most-americans-2000563069
So, either Ukraine gets the public money or domestic billionaires do?
Is it imaginable to say “none of the above”?
You got this one correct. Indeed you did.
What would a peace deal look like without some sort of meaningful security guarantee for Ukraine? I get that NATO is off the table, but what’s the alternative? Staff the entire border with a ton of troops from NATO countries instead? That’s basically the same thing, right? Just take Russia’s word that they’ll be nice now? Something else?
Good question. Don’t know. But it’s sure to be a sticking point in the negotiation.
A sticking point in the negotiation? To a negotiator who has essentially pre-announced he is in a hurry, and thrown away his chips already, and who shows the attention span of a frenetic influencer? Or hopefully the other version of Trump shows up, the one who sticks to simplistic assumptions for decades?
With all respect, it might just be, “I bring you peace in our time.” — Chamberlain brigade ;). I see Mish’s larger point, which is so horribly costly for the USA, in treasure and blood, whereupon we often cut out at odd times from commitments anyway, but I am not willing to rule out some scenario roughly like the aggressive Russia thing. I mean, Putin invaded this place, hello. Well, we’ll see.
EU and Ukraine are adamant that Ukraine won’t forfeit territory. They know the Baltic states are next. EU must send an army to secure Ukraine. EU has no army. Whatever EU sends to Ukraine will replace Ukraine on portions of the front lines. Do not expect Russia nor Ukraine to honor the truce. Ukrainian troops pulled out from EU positions will proceed to attack Kursk.
What’s the EU going to do about it?
Spend more money?
BTW, the position of Germany has changed. It totally objects to more money.
France is not in a position to do anything.
They can make a lot of noise, but they are probably more focussed on their own internal “problems”.
KGB, you are an idiot. Read a book for goodness sake. Russia will abide by the agreement unless they see a rearming of Ukraine. It’s the West that you can’t trust. That’s why Russia invaded in the first place. Ukraine has no bargaining power and neither does Trump. Putin holds all the cards except he also wants the killing to stop.
Are you kidding?
Back in 1994 Russia promised invulnerability of Ukrainian borders when Ukraine surrendered nuclear weapons. What happened to that guarantee in 2014 or 2022?
If we go back in history, Russia broke every peace agreement they concluded, starting with attack by then Muscovite duke on then Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1512.
Check your history.
Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).
The KEY point of that agreement was that Ukraine would remain a NEUTRAL state, a point so critical that it was actually embedded in the newly formed Ukrainian state’s Constitution.
What happened was that the extremist and illegitimate regime put in power by the American with the 2014 coup broke the agreement and not only erased Ukraine’s neutral status from its Constitution but actually put in its place the EXACT OPPOSITE: NATO and EU accession.
Ukraine’s new regime (together with the German and French governments) also broke the Minsk Agreements. TWICE.
ALL of them actually BRAGGED about it.
The history books you are taking your BS from must have been written in Ukrainian, a language not spoken even by half of the current so-called “government” nor by its very own expired “president”…
Poland could provide troops. Poland is sporting for a fight with Russia. Poland knows that if it wars with Russia, then NATO MUST join in.
I’d be more concerned that the Russians take OUR word that we’ll be nice, after we stuck our military alliance all around them and threatened to do it via Ukraine (and Georgia) even further. We already have missles in Romania and Poland. That’s more than enough. We started this fight, let’s stand down.
DMZ manned be troops from countries deemed neutral – say Turkey (I know, somewhat NATO) – cost to be paid by the west.
Get Putin to return to Donbas and keep Crimea. That means Russia moves out of major cities like Kershon and Mariupol.
Donbas was the only region that were Kremlin kool aid drinkers.
Mariupol is in Donbas. It’s unrealistic for the Russians to give back any territory they’ve already conquered. Russia is the one taking more territory every day without exception and is negotiating from a position of power.
Bring in 3rd party peace keepers like from Brazil, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Phillipines, etc to eastern Ukraine.
I guess let Putin have the pro-Russia region of Donbas since it was Stalinized at least 75 years ago. Let Kremlin keep Crimea also.
Even Kharkiv and Poltova are not loyal stooges to the Kremlin unlike Donbas.
Do you know (rethorical question, you clearly know jack shit about Ukraine) what was the FIRST city to rebel against the American-organized coup in Kiev in 2014?
No, it wasn’t Donetsk…
No, it wasn’t Lugansk…
…it was KHARKOV!
N.B. nobody born and raised in Kharkov calls it Kharkiv, which is its “new”, “Ukrainian” name. Kharkov, like almost all of the major “Ukrainian” cities, was founded by Russians and has a Russian name.
The ONLY major “Ukrainian” city not founded by Russians is Lvov and even that is not really Ukrainian, it was basically founded by the Polish and the proof is in its very name: the Russians call it Lvov (which doesn’t mean anything in Russian), the Ukrainian Lviv (which doesn’t mean anything in Ukrainian) but the Polish call it Lwow which means something like “city of lions” and Lvov has historically been called in Italian Leopoli which in Latin means… “city of lions”.
I get that NATO is off the table, but what’s the alternative?
My suggestion is – – –
Be a good neighbour.
Don’t poke the bear.
Don’t trust the neocons.
Everything will be fine.
Exogenous cause might soon send the markets down.
Cryptic comment. Ending the war would be a good thing. To what else are you referring Michael? I hope it’s not what I’m thinking.
Putin’s intentions are exogenous. Have to convince him to restrain his intentions by convincing him the costs outweigh the benefits. Birdbrain Biden was not up for that job.