Based on a cubic fit, the end of the coronavirus threat is supposedly at hand.
CEA Data Visualization
Negative Deaths
https://twitter.com/kjhealy/status/1257736949714104322
I hope everyone feels better now. But that may change when people start rising from their graves.
Mish
This is actually very good news for the fifty South Koreans infected by a single celebratory bar hopper recently. If they, and all those whom they have subsequently infected, can all hang on for only five more days, they’re safe…or does the spreadsheet only protect U.S. citizens?
As he begins to dissolve and then revive the virus task force…
It will get worse before it gets better. I suspect at some point this summer a capitulation. There will be shutdowns in places that cannot handle the capacity of ill people into the hospital.
I also expect this. Unfortunately, this has knock-on effects in places that actually monitored their case loads and made more prudent decisions in the current timeframe. Those areas put up with longer economic damage and later they will end up having to suffer more damage due to the ill-advised opening of other areas and the subsequent flares of infection.
Wow! This projection will be trashed within the week. I’m curious to see their next update. So everyone should look at Hawaii who has beaten Covid. Strict quarantines and lockdowns have prevailed there.
It’ll be more in the US because of variable exposure rate by borough
A month and a half of mitigation effects.
60,000 deaths in the month of April.
Oh, only 60,000 dead in the last month–what’s the big deal–lets open full-bore.
That’s some stinkin’ thinkin’.
What would you think the deaths would be without mitigation, eh Einsteins?
Which way–forward up or forward down?
At a 3 to 5% exposure rate, getting to 60% would be somewhere between 12 to 20 times more illness and deaths (840K to 1,400K).
Winning so much, we’re already tired of it.
Either way, it will be a long and bloody slog.
“the White House Council of Economic Advisors made a preposterous forecast.”
…
Oh, just another par on their outlandish course.
February 25th:
“We have contained this. I won’t say [it’s] airtight, but it’s pretty close to airtight,” Kudlow told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on “The Exchange.” He added that, while the outbreak is a “human tragedy,” it will likely not be an “economic tragedy.”
The infection rate and death rate are creeping up in spite of the restrictions. Just what is the answer? Of course this prediction is hooey. Still no good choices
It is not too big of a stretch to expect resurrections this year. I hear that around election time, thousands of voters tend to miraculously jump out of their eternal resting places like a flock of young gazelles to cast one last vote so they can finally rest in peace.
My grandfather never voted Democrat when he was alive.
Mutate or die.
We will just quit counting.
It is apparent from eyeballing the Worldometer chart of U.S. daily deaths that the average death rate has been declining roughly 5% per week with ever larger swings between weekdays and weekends (Why the increasing swings? Are people tired of counting the dead on weekends?). Daily new cases also looks to be declining 3% to 5% per week, but the total number of active cases in the US is still increasing about 14% per week. There must be a higher proportion of positive outcomes due to improving medical treatment or tests detecting a greater number of minor cases. Nonetheless, a significant fraction of the increasing active cases will still end in death. Given that increase, I am somewhat surprised the daily death rate is already trending down.
It is obvious the cubic curve fit is nonsense. With parts of the US re-opening while active cases are still increasing, even the “worst case” IHME 5/4 model is probably too optimistic. I think the US should re-open, with mouth and nose covering for everyone and self-isolation for high risk individuals, and we will be lucky to see the rate of new cases continue to decline in that environment.
I wonder who at the White House thought the cubic fit curve was a good idea? It is absurd.
I have a hard time breathing with a face mask and it also steams up my glasses with every breath. When you stop to consider face masks have one single positive function, to remind people to distance and wash hands, I just will not use one, if I am told I can’t get groceries or whatever without a face mask then I will die because I am not wearing one. And the stupid hyper Nazi attitude that you MUST OBEY is just another example of human stupidity and willingness to be sheep.
Standard face masks are garbage, you need a surgical grade N95 respirator that is fitted to you to even get close to stopping all virus: “Seriously people-STOP BUYING MASKS!” began a 29 February tweet from U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams. The World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have both said that only people with COVID-19 symptoms and those caring for them should wear masks.”
Please notice I did not write “face mask.” The mouth and nose covering is to prevent respiratory droplets from leaving the wearer and getting onto others or objects in a public space. It gives no protection to the wearer unless everyone in the room has their mouth and nose covered. A loosely worn cloth handkerchief would work.
Homemade cloth masks are even more useless than manufactured surgical masks, anything that is even minimally effective also restricts breathing. For one thing most infections spread by touch not airborn droplets. It was reported that Covid COULD be spread by micro droplets but in fact we are talking 1% or less of infections that method. Did not stop the press from jumping on it and gross overreactions to that news. These masks have about as much efficacy as holding your hand over your mouth. The will not have a statistically significant effect on infection rates, but one thing they are good for is measuring your obedience to authorities and virus vigilantes. Nothing else. The largest group of people now getting infected are oddly enough people who have self isolated in quarantine all this time.
“largest group of people now getting infected are…people who have self isolated…”@Herkie Do you have a citation for this information? I suppose it would make sense that someone goes out, gets infected, and ends up infecting their whole family who they are confined with.
Regarding masks, how do you suppose the infection is spread by contact? Respiratory droplets land on a surface…someone else touches the surface and touches their mouth, eyes, etc. Faecal transmission alone cannot explain the large number of cases in countries with good hygiene. I disagree that a loosely fit cloth mask restricts breathing. Breathing occurs around the mask. The mask is a shield that stops larger respiratory droplets which land on the mask instead of going around or landing on some other surface. It is a similar principle to using a surgical mask to not infect a patient in an O.R.
From what I have seen, the COVID antibody tests are not great for determining if an individual has been infected or not. The have specificity in the mid 80% range instead of 99%+, so they cannot be relied upon for anything more than statistical analysis of a population. Perhaps they have improved and I missed it. Do you know what the specificity of the antibody test you had was?
Some of the antibody tests are awful, as you mention, but some are 98% accurate. The quick response tests tend to be less accurate. I’m considering getting a test myself. They are now available from QuestDirect (Quest Diagnostics) for $119 that you can order yourself, or, if your doctor orders it, your insurance may cover it.
I’d be curious how the hospital admissions people verified with certainty that the new admissions were people who had been staying home …. by just asking them? and by what definition of “staying home”?
Does not matter Math, the fact that anyone who was self isolating got sick proves the isolation has not worked to prevent transmission. It is also powerful evidence that false sense of sucurity leads to sloppy to nonexistent handwashing which would have prevented those infections.
Of course we can only speculate about any given case where a person claims to have remained in self quarantine but ended up sick anyway. Yet we know there have to be some cases when more than 66% of new admits are of people claiming to have strictly self isolated actually were paranoid and did self quarantine. So how did they get infected? Really simple, they are calling Uber Eats and Grub Hub and Door Dash for food. We are 2 months into this and unless these people are going out grocery shopping they must be getting food somehow. Sure they might have hoarded toilet paper early on and that are not parishable. But, they would long ago have run out of fresh foods, and this is doubly true of urban dwellers with so much more access to these delivery services. The virus is getting into those people’s homes somehow if they are not going out to shop, and if they really did not go out then the virus came in. It would have to have come in via deliveries. Infected drivers handing their parcels. then because people are so well protected by their isolation they do not feel the need to was after touching the items contaminated.
I also want to point out a study done late last year (pre virus) that showed almost three quarters of food delivery workers admit to helping themselves to food they are delivering. Those are just the ones that will admit to it. Pretty disgusting eh? I have never used these services and after reading that would not.
RE: “Of course we can only speculate about any given case where a person claims to have remained in self quarantine but ended up sick anyway.”
First, I’d be surprised if everyone admitted to the hospital (1) was asked if they “self-quarantine” and (2) knew what “self-quarantine” meant.
I was going by the “Have you been staying at home?” question(s) suggested in the news story. And I can only imagine how many people would say “Yes” and mean
(1) I don’t go out nearly as often except for … whatever
(2) I have never left the house (but forget to mention all the visitors! … of course that might be part of the questioning as well)
(3) I frequently have contact with delivered packages of many kinds, food or otherwise, without taking proper precautions …
You wrote “The virus is getting into those people’s homes somehow if they are not going out to shop, and if they really did not go out then the virus came in. It would have to have come in via deliveries.”
That’s it EXACTLY, herkie!
We do not receive any delivery of mail or anything else without either letting it sit for a full week (sometimes after moving it to the garage and immediately washing hands) or, if it must be refrigerated/frozen, disinfecting all external packaging and sometimes even internal packaging with either an at least 91% alcohol spray or 10% povidone-iodine spray. And even at that we also wipe down internal surfaces with the alcohol on a regular basis … and wash hands FREQUENTLY … and have learned to avoid hands to face/mouth/nose/eyes far better than before.
I see there were other factors in the information that Cuomo cited. People over age 51 and retired. Difficult to sort out what is cause and what is correlation.
CO, if you had ever been a medical professional such as a nurse, and I was a medic in the Air Force as well as nurse after, you would know that HAND WASHING is the bedrock of infection control because nearly all bacterial and viral infections are spread by touch and non sterile surfaces. The scientific community has stressed that transmission by aerosol droplets is possible but RARE! Good hand washing technique is enough to prevent all but a few cases of transmission. You have to wash frequently enough (without touching yourself on the face or mucus membranes between washing), long enough, with proper soap and water, and antibacterial if available, and cover any ports of entry that vectors can access, for example I have a sun rash on both arms that have several small sores, they are very itchy and will go away soon, but in the meanwhile if I scratch them with nails that have not been sanitized first that is an actual route the virus can use.
If you cannot was hands as frequently as you would like then use alcohol to disinfect between washing when you have had to touch anything that could even potentially be contaminated. If this is the case and it is often enough then you have to make sure that alcohol is sufficient to get into cracks and under nails. And it must be left on long enough to dry naturally, the shell of the virus is vulnerable to alcohol but it is also a bit on the tough side. It is not instantly killed by the alcohol.
This is from the report that scared the public into thinking it could get it just by breathing….
“Furthermore, we found that rates of positivity differed by air sampling site, which reflects the distribution of virus-laden aerosols in the wards (Figure 2, panel A). Sampling sites were located near the air outlets (site 1), in patients’ rooms (site 2), and (site 3). SARS-CoV-2 aerosol was detected at all 3 sampling sites; rates of positivity were 35.7% (5/14) near air outlets, 44.4% (8/18) in patients’ rooms, and 12.5% (1/8) in the doctors’ office area. These findings indicate that virus-laden aerosols were mainly concentrated near and downstream from the patients. However, exposure risk was also present in the upstream area; on the basis of the positive detection result from site 3, the maximum transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol might be 4 m. According to the aerosol monitoring results, we divided ICU workplaces into high-risk and low-risk areas (Figure 2, panel B). The high-risk area was the patient care and treatment area, where rate of positivity was 40.6% (13/32). The low-risk area was the doctors’ office area, where rate of positivity was 12.5% (1/8).”
There is enough virus in the air that you would be likely to be exposed if you were in that environment for days. However it is also an ICU filled with very sick people so unless you plan to sit bedside with a near death Covid patient you are about as safe as you can be. The point is that if you are just out in public indoors the chances of an airborne infect are certainly WELL UNDER 1% and outdoors nil unless an infected person sneezes right into your face while you are inhaling. And the real problem with the mask is people do not use them correctly, and unless they are very good surgical grade they do not stop the finer aerosols anyway, and it is those that get you infected. A droplet you can see is not going to infect you, it will infect the floor. Aerosols are so fine they float, droplets are large enough to simply drop to the ground. I would be comfortable in estimating that outside of hospital wards at least 99.975% of all infections in the public have come from touching contaminated surfaces. Proper hand washing would have prevented those transmissions. A surgical grade mask might have prevented hundreds of the millions of cases so far. But a homemade mask is worse than useless because it leads people to feel protected when they are just not.
And gloves, I see people put them on and wear the same pair the whole day. That is also worse than useless. Those glove surfaces touch other contaminated surfaces and never get washed. Then the wearers touch their face/eyes/nose with the contaminated gloves and bingo infected, we all touch ourselves dozens of times per day without realizing it. And I do see this all the time, people driving alone in their cars with mask and gloves on. That is ridiculous, there is no source of contamination inside your car when you are alone. Well except maybe your contaminated mask and gloves.
It is lack of knowledge that is killing people, how and when to wash, disinfect, how and when to wear protective gear. And improper use of protective gear as well as use of gear that offers little in the way of actual protection like homemade masks is a placebo at best, and dangerous when it gives a FALSE sense of security.
I agree that many people are not correctly executing whatever safety measures they are using. You gave a few examples. I have seen others. I was at a big-box hardware store yesterday. They had social distancing requirements and lined people up outside. The marked area for the line was short compared to the number of people waiting to get in. Big group of people standing on top of each other in a cluster with no masks (which I guess you think is okay). Once in the store there were fewer people than normal, but most of them were clustered around the front register area, so once again they were all pretty close. Self check-out requires that people all touch the same screens to make their purchase, etc. Example after example of measures being executed incorrectly.
Herkie, the reason for you to wear a mask is not to protect you, but to protect other people from you. If everyone has a mask, then then every sick person has a mask, even the ones who don’t realize they are sick. When a sick person has a mask, they can’t effectively spread the virus, and the virus can’t spread. Rather than shutting down the entire economy, having everyone wear a mask is prudent and inexpensive.
You don’t need an N95 mask, and you don’t need a surgical mask. You just need some sort of covering over your mouth that will block any water droplets. A simple scarf or bandana would be fine.
That is good to know even if it is flat out wrong. Because I just had a blood test for Covid antibodies last Friday and was negaitive so I am no threat to anyone.
Even if you don’t have it now, and haven’t had it in the past, the day may come when you catch it, though I hope it doesn’t. If you do catch it, you won’t know it for awhile, and could infect others during the 3-7 day incubation period before symptoms appear. What I would suggest is this: Every time you see someone in a mask, think to yourself “How Considerate. That person is wearing an uncomfortable mask to help keep me, and others safe.”
I know Carl. And that is what bothers me, I was hoping for a positive result so I could have the peace of mind of some resistance to it. And I was sick for about 15 days in March with what I really thought was Covid. It was an almost perfect list of Covid symptoms, even woke with sweating in the middle of the night a few times, indicative of fever, there were a few nights I was so fatigued I just slept downstairs rather than go up to my room. I would have thought it the flu had there been any hint of gastric upset, running to the toilet or such, and I was coughing a lot, but not coughing anything up. And flu does not last 15 days. Nor colds. Also, late in the month near the peak of feeling like crap, I woke on the 27th feeling just great. Whatever it had been was out of me and I finally felt so good, just in time for the move to Florida on the 29th.
So, because I was so sure what I had was Covid I wonder if the negative result was a false negative. It is not as though the CDC/government has not had problems with their tests giving false results in the past and no test is 100% accurate. Then too there is the possibility of mutations that evade the test. If there were problems with the test no doubt they would try to keep that closer to the vest while fixing the problem rather than risk the uproar that happened when the previous problems were revealed.
As such I have not been able to find out much useful information on the finger stick blood test for antibodies that I had last week. The took a drop of blood and sent me to sit for 20 minutes in my car in a parking lot. Then told me I was good to go, I had no exposure to Covid. Then I would really like to know what it was I did get sick from.
As it is I am still at risk.
Sorry Carl, I feel like shit again, I could very well be sick and dying and spreading Covid, but I have to get groceries, I just bought a house in a new state and have to deal with people. That is just how it is. I also got a life insurance policy that will make 9 months of payments up to 12k so my heirs have time to decide what to do with my house. Rent it out, sell it, live in it, do Air B&B with it. It could easy do 200 per night as a vacation rental. On a monthly basis easily $2,400. Mortgage payments about $1,520, so if I die (when I die) my heirs have the gift of some time.
I do not apologize if I am sick and dying, already almost a third of a million Americans have died from this. It is what it is. I just started a new par of my life I am excited about. But so did some of the dead people. All I can do is my best and be happy. 0
Take care of yourself, herkie. On the test, yes, they are not all that accurate, and the quick result ones are less accurate than the lab version. Furthermore, false negatives are more common than false positives. The fact that your symptoms have returned is more evidence that it might be Covid19. Covid19 tends to cycle, and full recovery can take many weeks or months. Patient often report feeling better for a time, then worse again, then better, then worse.
The reason you may not have antibodies is that it doesn’t sound like you are over it yet. They won’t find the IGG antibodies until some time after you have cleared the infection, and it doesn’t sound like you have cleared it. If I were in your shoes, I would see about getting a nasal swab test, immediately, to test for an active infection. Even the swab test may not be positive, though. Viral loads are highest early on in the infection, before a person has symptoms, and falls steadily throughout the infection. Therefore, if you test negative, and continue to feel bad, try to get re-tested. It might take a few tests before you show positive.
You should also discuss it with a doctor, for two reasons. First, even if the tests are negative, they might do a chest x-ray or CT scan to look for signs of Covid19. Second, antivirals such as hydroxychloroquinone, remdesivir, ivermectin, are never going to help with advanced cases (people who are hospitalized), but they very well may help with people with low level infections whose body is trying to fight off the viral replication. You sound like your body is putting up a good fight, so maybe the addition of some anti-viral will be the boost you need to get over the hump.
Other than that a few over the counter things might, or might not be useful. Absolutely you should get something at the pharmacy to check your oxygen saturation level at home, and if it is low, get medical attention immediately. You could also consider taking Vitamin D, Quercitin, Vitamin C, and melatonin (before bed time on the melatonin) , all to boost your immune system. Since Covid19 is primarily a disease that leads to clotting, beware of any sign of stroke, and you could also take a baby aspirin a day.
But, try to get a swab test ASAP, beware of any sign of stroke, and keep a close watch on your oxygen saturation level. Good luck, and I hope you feel better.
O2 sat was 98 when they ordered the test, which I had to pay $49 for.
You said: “You should also discuss it with a doctor…” and I can only say how frustrating that is because I have the VA for a healthcare provider and they shut down as soon as the virus got going. Nice eh? I actually tried for WEEKS to get some prednisone for hives related to sun sensitivity because in years past that was the only thing that helped control the rash and itching. But rules are rules and nobody is better at making them up and applying them with the fervor of the inquisition than the Department of Veteran Affairs.
I am enrolled in the Portland Oregon region, at the White City VA near Medford Oregon where I lived for many years. I should have enrolled in the Tampa region as soon as I arrived in Florida but the clinics are all closed to patients, they are not doing such functions as enrollment. That makes me a “travelling veteran,” which requires you get a doctor signed consult from your place of enrollment to be seen in the new region. The problem is my old doctor moved away about the same time so I have no primary provider even back in Oregon. And no doctor is going to write a script for a steroid med like prednisone without at least a face to face consult for someone they never met. And they are not doing face to face at all anyway. Even when I phoned the Tampa regional hospital you get a recording saying don’t even go to the ER there.
Under the Mission Act if needed care is urgent enough and circumstances warrant you can go to one of many urgent care clinics outside the VA that the government contracts with and so that is what I finally did. But, while they did prescribe a very short course of prednisone the payer for it when you go to get the drug is Tri-Care, and again I am outside my Tri-Care region so I was was rejected for payment and had to pay out of pocket, the method to apply for reimbursement is simply not worth the time and trouble to get reimbursed.
This means I simply have no access to a doctor other than justifiable urgent care, and how you and I would define that is one thing, how the VA defines it I guarantee you is another far different animal.
I do really appreciate your advice and concern though, thank you.
Well, all I can say is that all that bureaucracy sucks. In any case, you can try to get a swab test. That would be done through the state of Florida. I found this link where you can either call or email people to try to find out how to get a swab test. I would do that today. As for the Oxygen saturation, you can buy a pulse oximeter for about $40 from your favorite pharmacy, or from Amazon, whichever you choose. If you’re going to try to recover on your own, you should definitely have one, and if you start dropping, consider it an emergency.
I can’t guarantee that Vitamin D, Quercitin, Vitamin C, Zinc, Selenium, and melatonin (before bed time on the melatonin), but if i were in your shoes, I’d certainly be taking them. Who knows, some Red wine and dark chocolate might also help, and even if they don’t help with the infection, they can be enjoyable.
Good luck, and keep us posted.
Oops: here is the link
I realize I’m just piling on at this point…but that never stopped me before…
I just want to reiterate what several have said. The mask does not have to be perfect — it is a social distancing measure, not a filter. It should be thought of as a way to prevent ‘projectile infection’ from yourself to others; much as sneezing into the crook of an elbow is the same type of mitigation.
Come on guys be fair, this is more professional looking than that hurricane map in Sharpie. Yes that really happened, that was not something you dreamed.
Trump will win easily if his estimate is correct. Wouldn’t want to be in his shoes if he is wrong, though.
So, it is a Mexican conspiracy!
We’ve always been at war with the Mexicans and Chinese.
The only thing which can save us, is our glorious knight in shining orange armor tweeting about walls and tariffs.
I like it.
“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.
The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”
This is an asinine prediction. It’s one thing to announce wildly optimistic forecasts on the economy or the Forever Wars, where one can claim unforeseen factors came into play when goals are unmet.
I don’t know how they can explain this away when Covid deaths continue after 5/16. Maybe they can blame China for failing to report data to give a more complete picture, but that has been obvious for months.
Remember kids, if you’re going to lie, make sure you have some sort of exit plan if you’re caught!
Trump is keeping his promise: MAGA! By eliminating most pensioners above 65 years old! This way the USA will become younger and without social burdens!
Nailed it AugustTG.
Very droll but not quite accurate. Saw somewhere that about 1/4 of people over 85 who 1)become sick and seek aid and 2)therefore get tested and also test positive will end up dying. Orders of magnitude higher death rate for positive tested as compared to young people, but still not a death sentence.
The virus will magically disappear in April. You can count on it. …. haha I didn’t say April of which year!
There is a certain depth of bone-deep stupidity that releases this steaming pile of feces when it will be proven deadly wrong in two weeks.
Rex Tillerson had it exactly right.
It depends. If more bailouts need to be generated, there will be more deaths. If everyone’s belly is full for now, there will be no more deaths.
People that die of it after that date will be counted as MAGAMartyrs, because America will be even greater without them.
Either he gets the S&P 500 back to 3,300 or he starts a conflict.
“One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”
Yep, May 17th is that day guys. Who needs miracles if you can just use an Excel spreadsheet?
In all fairness, Excel is a miracle.
Trump can actually make the model work, by adding new births (i.e. negative deaths) into the mix starting from may 16!
Already got a cruise booked for May 17th.
The president is wearing safety goggles but no mask on his tour of Honeywell PPE manufacturing line https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1257781069421539329
I am booking my movie theatre seats for May 17th right now.
I mean, Trump has never lied to us before, right?
Trump is vulnerable in November if the economy doesn’t come back strong… and Joe Biden is? I don’t see any choice this election cycle, like we really had a choice to begin with, but there is Justin Amash, who dropped out of the republican party. Dropping out has a political appeal to it.
Amash, who threw a wobbly and quit the republican party and the Freedom Caucus because they were not conservative enough for him? That Justin Amash?