Tweets of the Day: Stock Market, Bitcoin, Energy Margin Calls, Shipping Collapse

Counter

3 years ago

NG starting to come back after those margin calls

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Doug78

3 years ago

Germany is paying the price for having tied themselves to an unreliable partner. They are getting off Russian energy cold turkey and that means high prices in economic terms but the cure for high prices is high prices themselves as they provoke the search for alternatives and there are many as Russia is finding out.

Putin’s visit to China this week resulted in a contract for China to buy a grand total of 10 bcm from Russia by pipeline in eastern Siberia. China agreed to pay for the gas in yuan and rubles. Europe used to buy 180 bcm of gas from Russia. There were no deals for any pipeline construction from the gas fields in western Siberia at all. China doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to become Russia’s replacement for Europe.

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RonJ

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

“Germany is paying the price for having tied themselves to an unreliable partner.”

Who was it that was trying to block Nordstream 2?

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Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to RonJ

I recall it was the Americans.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

Unreliable? It is the US that is talking about limiting LNG and oil product exports because it is driving domestic prices.

Russia is still delivering to anyone with a contract. Putin just offered gas through NS2. Municipalities are begging to be allowed to keep their current gazProm contracts. Gas if flowing through Ukraine and Ukraine is receiving dollars for transit. Russia has never reneged on contracts, although Ukraine has used gas transit as a weapon in the past.

You’re just spouting prop.

The plan is to bring Europe to its knees and for America to buy everything up at bargain basement prices.

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prumbly

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

“unreliable partner”???

Germany has declared economic war on Russia, is supplying Russia’s enemies with weapons with which they kill Russians, and has imposed sanctions so that Russia cannot maintain the equipment needed to to supply Germany with natural gas. Who is really the “unreliable partner” here?

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StukiMoi

3 years ago

“European energy trading risks grinding to a halt unless governments extend liquidity to cover margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion,”

Which, of course, in economically literate Non-Newspeak; resolves to nothing more than: It should grind to a halt, then……. No big deal.

Liquidate the lot of them; margin callers, margin called and the entire “system” keeping any of them afloat (and perhaps even alive); as Mellon once correctly advised in a similar situation.

If the service they render is worth vile rendering, the focus should simply be on getting out of the way of anyone else who wants to set up shop “trading energy,” who is not burdened by margin calls nor previously built up debt nor arrangements. Let the corpses die, make room for better people to route around them; and forget they ever existed.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to StukiMoi

Not that simple:

Providers have had their hands tied by government price caps.
Bankrupt providers will result in a huge number of consumers being exposed to exponential prices increases
Governments at risk of being subject to exponential tarring & feathering

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Doug78

3 years ago

And crude is crashing.

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Billy

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

It sure is. At least on paper. Russians and Saudis are all accusing of market manipulation. I’m curious what’s really true.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to Billy

Demand is tanking. Perhaps the cap is becoming serious.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

Not demand: Anticipated demand.

Plus some of these fools are betting on the price caps, or just going along with the perceived momentum on this front.

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8dots

3 years ago

AAPL new products compete with ARKK. AAPL belong to XLP. XLP largest components fear China.

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Dutoit

3 years ago

Germans are now supposed to use less showers (as a minister said, I don’t remember which). And now less (or even no) toilet paper. When going to Germany, don’t forget your clothes pegs.

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KidHorn

3 years ago

Reply to Dutoit

But, just think how great it would be to have Ukraine in NATO.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

Well they do fight better than Russians. Better to have them on our side.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

Germans fight better than Americans, but Russians?

How many times have Swede, Teuton, Austrian, and German armies been expelled the past millenia?

Nato is about to have its a$$ handed to them, Kabul style, again.
And the present crop of Germans is not like in the past..

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Jack

3 years ago

Reply to Webej

Germany lost before they were fighting 2 fronts simultaneously. Even before D-Day Germans were fighting in North Africa and Italy. Russians received a lot of free weapons, technology, and hardware from the west – similar to what is happening now with Ukraine on the receiving end.

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prumbly

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

Ukraine will be running out of conscript cannon-fodder soon

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StukiMoi

3 years ago

Reply to Dutoit

And the Germans are the rich guys……..

The reason you hear more of this sort of stuff from Germany than from even poorer countries; is that Germany still have SOME industry left. Hence SOME people who are actually aware of deteriorating cost and competitive conditions.

The rest of them haven’t built as much as a ham sandwich since 1990. Having instead simply burned that which were built up prior, while pretending simply printing more dead guys heads on paper to bid up eachothers decaying shacks with, somehow created any value.

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Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to StukiMoi

Kinda like continuing to eat your seed corn because you’re still hungry.

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Sunriver

3 years ago

What a polar shift this Virus has caused.

The Goldilocks era of free money may be over for ‘awhile’. Fully expect the FED funds rate to be back close to 0% within the next three years.

If you add in housing costs to CPI, we’d be close to these levels in 2021/2022/2023.

Look familiar?

Year CPI

1918 17.3%

1919 15.2%

1920 15.6%

The world is indeed no longer ‘flat’ and stagflation will be the result.

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Billy

3 years ago

Reply to Sunriver

My guess is that we do OK for 4 years. Then the rates fall 2%.

I’m also not believing that the virus caused it. Just an excuse for our government to attempt to control the natural laws of finance.

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Anon1970

3 years ago

Reply to Sunriver

High inflation years tend to be tied to major wars where the US is either a participant or an exporter of war materials. Some of the highest inflation numbers occur at the ends of wars when pent up demand kicks in and prices rise sharply. High inflation years since 1913: 1916-21, 1942, 1946-48, 1951, 1974-82, 2022-?

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8dots

3 years ago

Between Nov 20 2008 and Mar 9 2009 Apple computer was in a trading range between $75 and $100, forming an inverse H&S. H&S are formed by the big whales either for accumulations or distributions. Adjusting for two splits : x7 and x4 = 28, Apple computer trading was between : $2.67 and $3.57.

AAPL dropped the word computer and morphed into a phone co. After 14 years ==> AAPL became a landlord collecting rent. AAPL RE is

WB largest asset. China and Europe might hurt WB.

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MPO45

3 years ago

Reply to 8dots

New apple products:

Apple Car?

Apple TV?

Apple Banking?

Apple Games?

Apple Money?

Apple Body Devices (beyond watch)

Apple Medical?

Apple Medicine?

The only company innovating is Apple. Everything else is trash.

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Sunriver

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

It is the best time of year for Apple’s. I just had a Gala and it was awesome.

I also own Apple Stock. It’s kind of like owning a consumer staple like Costco during times such as these.

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TexasTim65

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

Just about the worst thing you can do as a consumer is get into the Apple Ecosystem. Once there you are captive of a monopoly who charges monopoly prices for everything (virtually everything Apple is more expensive than any similar product made by anyone else).

As for those new products, very few are actually new. It’s just Apple brand name wrapped around someone else’s product in order to get you into their Ecosystem.

You have to be crazy to get an Apple Car or Apple Medicine etc. Their TV is laughable compared to competitors and they don’t make games (they just purchase someone else who makes them). There really aren’t any new products.

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Anon1970

3 years ago

Reply to TexasTim65

For some people, owning an Apple device is just a status symbol that they are willing to pay up for.

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Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

You forgot Apple Government coming soon.

FYI: never had any iStuff.

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RonJ

3 years ago

Michael A. Gayed: Treasuries on a weekly basis have lost money 68.6% of the time this year.

There is nothing in history going back to 1961 where there is this kind of pressure.

It’s beyond the “end of the 40 year bond bull market.”

This never happened even in the 1970s.

If anything, everything is beyond the beyond, now.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to RonJ

It’s called a bear market in bonds and it happens when inflation takes off. 1981 to a year ago was a bull market in bonds as inflation steadily decreased and it has alas ended.

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JackWebb

3 years ago

9 subheads, nothing below any of them. Mish, it’d be interesting to be able to read what you have to say. Doesn’t work on Firefox, Edge, or my phone. The headline, the very first chart, and the comment section. Nothing else. Wait! Nothing else except the Cars.com ads if I view it on my phone. Oh well, couldn’t have been very important anyway.

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to JackWebb

It works fine on my Firefox. Might be javascript? An add-on? Anti-virus? Even a VPN? Some facebook/twitter leaves you very exposed via javascript.

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JackWebb

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Don’t have any add-ons. No anti-virus. No VPN. Your javascript question has no meaning. I don’t use Twitter or Facebook.

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Anon1970

3 years ago

Reply to JackWebb

I have the same problem on my computer. I do have an anti-virus (?) program on my computer called Malwarebytes. Mish, do you have an explanation?

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JackWebb

3 years ago

Reply to Anon1970

I have dragged my feet (inertia, nothing else) on reactivating anti-virus, and have only two Firefox add-ons: LastPass and opt-out of Google Analytics. I tried disabling them and rebooting (the latter a real pain in the a**), and nothing changed. My Edge browser (which I hardly ever use) has no add-ons. Neither does my Android phone. Even tried the Brave browser that I downloaded and have used maybe 5 times. Nada.

Months ago, I resolved not to complain about this junk, and now I’ve broken that resolution because this time it was by far the worst, and I wanted to see what Mish was quoting, but cannot. Mish, your stuff is outstanding, but you’re posting on a website that puts your own posts into a moderation queue that you cannot touch, and that routinely omits whole sections of what you post. This is far from the only time since I’ve been hanging out here, but as I just said, this is the worst.

I presume you post because you want other people to read your output. I also presume, or better to say I infer, that you aren’t a desktop publishing nerd. Your site, your rules. I’m saying this: This platform gets in your way. There are other choices. As a former professional journalist I remind you of a ground truth: It’s about the reader.

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JimK

3 years ago

Reply to JackWebb

They are embedded tweets. They work me in chrome. Hovering over them in my browser show twitter.com address. Perhaps you have blacklisted twitter?

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Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to JackWebb

Yes. I keep my desktop pretty locked down and I’ve been seeing this for a long time.

I expect it has something to do with keeping the Facebook/Twitter crap off my machine.

Am I curious? Yes. Am I going to open up my machine? No.

Que será, será.

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davebarnes2

3 years ago

“Shipping Collapse” is misleading.

Shipping Rates Collapse is more accurate.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to davebarnes2

Shipping rates are always either in a boom or a bust.

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8dots

3 years ago

ECB balance shoot : 8.8T x 1Y x 0.08 inflation = (-)700B Euros. // Madam ECB raise rates ==> USD down ==> gold + silver up.

Option for fun and entertainment only. For 20 weeks gold and silver cos were up from 2020 low and 20 weeks down since Apr 2022 high. Got it ?

The stock markets casino is run by cool professionals…

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Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to 8dots

Stock markets are run by children whose irresponsible parents really do know better.

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xbizo

3 years ago

Some positives for the U.S. economy in this. Who holds Hakl ‘paper’? 🙂

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Brent and WTI down despite Putin… might this be a signal of declining demand aka recession?

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

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KidHorn

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

That and Russia didn’t stop selling oil. It’s just moving east instead of west.

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

Ya think it might be worth starting to go long at WTI at $60? Long-term average is around that. At $50 I’ll buy for certain.

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MPO45

3 years ago

The biggest news of the day is UPS striking. How am I gonna get my Amazon stuff?

https://www.rrstar.com/story/news/local/2022/09/07/strike-appears-imminent-at-ups-heres-how-itll-impact-you/65558648007/

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KidHorn

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

Surprised you didn’t mention buying fedex stock.

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MPO45

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

I’m not buying anything heavily dependent on fuel. Oil may be down but that’s going to be temporary.

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MPO45

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

There is also more bad news coming for Fedex and UPS. Labor shortage! I wonder where they will conjure up 100k people.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-hire-over-100-000-144026978.html

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

UPS is negotiating with Texas to send 150 busloads to UPS centers.

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Tony Bennett

3 years ago

HMS Housing … somewhere between hitting iceberg and taking to the life boats.

MND has avg 30 yr mortgage @ 6.25% (3 bps from ytd high)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 2, 2022.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/07/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

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Tony Bennett

3 years ago

“Treasuries on a weekly basis have lost money 68.6% of the time this year.

There is nothing in history going back to 1961 where there is this kind of pressure.

It’s beyond the “end of the 40 year bond bull market.”

…

Yeah, well … Michael, Treasuries have at least one more Great Hurrah.

2023 will see “deflation” as buzz word (regarding assets). Delinquencies / losses still low (but rising). When they appear in FORCE (they will) investor focus will be on Return OF Capital rather than Return ON Capital.

Treasuries backed by full faith of US taxpayer.

And your preferred asset backed by ???

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KidHorn

3 years ago

Central banks have to print more and more money to cover for their previous mistakes. And precious metals keep going down. It’s like living in a cartoon. I noticed physical silver cost about $3 more than spot price. Never seen such a spread. WTF is going on?

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

Gold, I ‘think’, is being manipulated until the time is right. However, the rising $US has a lot to do with it? It shows how feeble other countries are.

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Scooot

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Gold has only been weak against the dollar, against Sterling and the Euro it’s been relatively strong. From my Sterling perspective it’s not surprising, it’s all been doom and gloom, and now it looks like our government is going to buy some time by borrowing heavily to cut taxes and subsidise fuel bills. EU likely to do the same. Easy to see why Gold has a good bid in Sterling terms.

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Scooot

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

“I noticed physical silver cost about $3 more than spot price.”

Yes it’s getting relatively scarce. Article here about it.

https://monetary-metals.com/silver-scarcity-more-extreme/

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hmk

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

I have noticed the same thing but more like $5 premium for one ounce round. Gold coin premium a lot less. Only way to buy silver w/o premium is the sil etf. Rather have physical in hand however.

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RedQueenRace

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

“I noticed physical silver cost about $3 more than spot price.”

The spot price IS for physical silver (bullion).

Are you talking about silver-based products? Those spreads are dealer-inventory-driven and larger than normal widening of them are typically mint production issues.

A quick search shows this to currently be the case for Silver Eagles. A shortage of them will increase demand in other silver products beyond what can be supplied.

If there were ever a true shortage of a PM the front month futures price would blow out to the upside versus spot as First Notice Day approaches, as those who were short and did not already have eligible / registered metals within COMEX to deliver would be unable to obtain it and would be squeezed and have to pay up to close out the contract. Even the big players can get into trouble, as happened with gold during the Covid-driven shutdowns of big European refineries and curtailment of transatlantic flights, which prevented them from refining their London Good Delivery bars into 100 ounce COMEX bars and then transporting them to the US to deliver them as they frequently do.

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billybobjr

3 years ago

Meanwhile Russian’s have very cheap gas for their cars and natural gas for heating and electricity all while

burning millions of dollars worth of natural gas daily into the atmosphere . Plenty of food for the people also .

What am I missing ? This while the west is in everything needs a bailout with created money out of

thin air . Sounds like a brilliant strategy. Companies going out of business or needing a bailout because the

cost of power has gone up so much that the business is no longer a viable one . To be bailed out by the exact people

who caused the insolvency in the first place . WOW .

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to billybobjr

Never fear, the Fed waits in the wings with toilet paper and home printers–figuring print your own bailout is more cost-effective

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Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

I have been promoting this since 2009.

The Fed provides an application that enables everyone to print whatever quantity of $20s they need.

No need to mail checks or issue debit cards.

Everyone is happy.

For a while.

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StukiMoi

3 years ago

Reply to billybobjr

“To be bailed out by the exact people

who caused the insolvency in the first place .”

Nope.

The people involved in causing insolvencies, will never spend a dime bailing anyone out. All those guys will do, is rob others; via taxes, mandates, levies and debasement, to do the bailing out. As has always been the case. At least until the patsies finally grow the heck up; and simply string the trash up; without any more ado than that…..

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prumbly

3 years ago

Reply to billybobjr

Sanctioning a country that has everything it needs and everything that we need was never going to work well.

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Tweets of the Day: Stock Market, Bitcoin, Energy Margin Calls, Shipping Collapse

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