Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden according to Nate Cohn at the New York Times.
A Surge in Discontent With Biden
Please consider Trump Leads in 5 Key States by Nate Cohn.
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.
Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.
Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.
The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters — and a significant drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains.
Goodness Gracious
“My goodness gracious, my God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry.”
I believe it’s time for a musical tribute interlude.
We now return to our regularly scheduled program.
Emmerson College Polling
Emmerson College reports Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls
In Arizona, Trump leads by four points: 48% to 44%; 8% are undecided. In Georgia, 47% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 9% are undecided. In Michigan, 45% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 11% are undecided. In Nevada, 45% support Trump and 44% support Biden, while 11% are undecided. In North Carolina, 47% support Trump, and 42% Biden; 10% are undecided. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 47% support Trump, 45% Biden, and 8% are undecided.
“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.
When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan.
Impact of a Guilty Verdict on Independent Voters’ Likelihood to Support Trump
- AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
- MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
- NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
- PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
- WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact
Hoot of the Day
Independents in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania say a conviction would make it more likely they voted for Trump.
What a hoot!
That’s how much of a farce the trial is.
Biden’s Excuse for Bad Polls
If you need another hoot, I can help. Please note the White House blames the pandemic and Russia for Biden’s dismal swing state poll numbers.
Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate
“Make my day” said Biden to Trump in a Tweet, challenging Trump to a debate. Two debates are set. Trump seeks two more. What just happened?
I discussed the debate on May 15 in Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Trump Accepts, Advantage Whom?
What Just Happened?
Biden is so far behind in the swing state polls, that he needs to win these debate. If Biden was far ahead, it’s highly doubtful that he would go on stage for more than a short debate, and one as late as possible.
Trump cannot turn it down, so he upped the ante to four.
Winning two out of two for Biden will be hard enough. But if Biden flunks the first two he will want more.
Biden’s Extremely Big Bet
Even the Washington Post can spot Biden’s desperation.
Please consider Biden’s Extremely Big Bet
The last time the U.S. presidential election was a rematch of the previous election, Dwight D. Eisenhower smashed Democrat Adlai Stevenson into little pieces (figuratively), as he had four years before. This rematch promises to follow that pattern, not in outcome but in similarity. In 2020, Biden won as a function of narrow victories in a handful of battleground states (though he won the popular vote much more handily). This year’s outcome, by all appearances, will be even more narrowly determined.
If Biden wants to bring younger voters back into the fold, he’s got another problem. Polling shows that they prioritize the same issues as Americans overall, meaning primarily economic ones on which Trump is more favorably positioned.
Important Issues 18-29 Year-Olds
Top Issues
Two of the top three issues are inflation and housing. They are very related. Rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 months, nearly three years.
Home prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are above 7.0 percent making housing very unaffordable for those who want to buy a home.
New York Times Swing State Poll Detail
The Shocker
18-29 year-olds turned out en masse for Biden four years ago. Trump now leads age groups 18-29 and 30-44.
And it’s not just the youth vote. According to Pew, Biden captured 92 percent of the black vote in 2020. Now it’s 49-14-11 (Biden, Trump, Kennedy).
If these percentages hold, Trump is going to win every swing state plus a few more not yet presumed to be in the ballpark.
Spotlight Blacks
On April 12, the Kansas Reflector commented on Black Support for Biden.
Black voters overwhelmingly supported President Joe Biden in 2020 and were key to his win, but there is some evidence that Black voter enthusiasm for Biden may be slipping. And Trump is hoping to capitalize on that. He spoke last month at a meeting of the Black Conservative Federation and he argues that Black voters were better off financially when he was in office. Even if Black voters don’t buy that message, voters’ frustration could result in them turning to a third party candidate, Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for Barack Obama, told The New York Times.
To counter Trump, the Biden campaign is spending millions on radio ads in swing states at Black-owned and Latino-owned radio stations to point out the administration’s accomplishments, including investments in historically Black colleges and universities through grant funding and the American Rescue Plan Act, the cancellation of student loan debt for 3.9 million borrowers, and reducing Black child poverty in 2021, which it has connected to the then expansion of the child tax credit.
In March of last year, Black people’s unemployment rate hit a record low and the economic recovery shows that by historical standards, Black and Hispanic workers have had faster wage growth these past few years. The unemployment rate for Black people has begun to tick up again, but economists say they’re waiting for more data before considering it a long lasting trend.
But Melanie Campbell, president of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, said the unemployment rate for Black Americans does not tell the whole story. “The other part of that message has to do with, ‘OK, I may be employed but I’m still working three jobs just to pay my rent,’” she said.
Sarah Wallace, 49, a Philadephian who lives on Social Security Disability Insurance, says she has to spend the lion’s share of it on $1,500 in rent each month. She voted for Biden in 2020, but said she may vote third party this time.
“I think Biden sold all of us on his dream to get into the office … And that was that,” she said.
Generational Homeownership Rates
People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
On April 20, before the latest polls, and before I found the above Kansas Reflector post, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Young voters are angry about rent, angry over home prices, and angry over mortgage rates. That is reflected in the polls.
Economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing great.
If you are an asset holder, the economy might seem great (see Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? Spotlight Gold and Silver).
But the 36 percent of people who rent, mainly young voters and blacks, see things differently. And they will decide the election, for Trump, if the polls stay anywhere close to where they are.
Biden convinced all the independents he would be a moderate. He turned into the Progressive dream candidate.
Turns out young voters and blacks increasingly don’t like the result.
So the question is, on Nov 7th, do they stay home or do they vote for a guy who could become their worst nightmare?
All the polls said Hillary was gonna win too.
Hillary will take over the convention. She grew up in the same nearby neighborhood as the Podestas and Gacy.
So did I
John Wayne Gacy, maybe.
Already have the eirst nightmare. Midfle East is on fire, Europe on fire, border is a sieve, inflation hit 40 year highs and its author lies about it. Badically, everything this guy touches turns to crap.
Slow down. Youre hyperventilating so much your words arent even complete.
They’ll either stay home, vote for Trump or RFK.
If you don’t vote for Biden you ain’t black.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=We6Qr9-dDn8&pp=ygUVYmlkZW4geW91IGFpbid0IGJsYWNr
The debate will not be about the issues for the large majority of viewers. It will be about whether or not Joe is compis mentis, and whether or not Trump is the usual unhinged, undisciplined, juvenile insult monkey. Any issues are a backdrop to what people will watch to see. Trump nailed it in his NRA speech when he said that if Senile Joe manages to finish the debate, the media will declare him the winner.
Apparently Biden got the CIA’s version of neuralink. We should blast Beavis and Butthead over the airwaves.
These debates should instill more confidence in Russia and China and make us even bigger buffoons on the world stage.
Biden will win WI, MI & PA… the result in these three states has already been determined… no need to wait for Nov. 5 – the dirt is already done.
Biden will likely win AZ & NV… the result in these two states will be determined on Election Day… last-minute dirt vs. voter turnout.
Don’t be surprised if DJT wins a “Blue” state or two, but loses most purple/swing states… because Dem dirt is highly concentrated in the swing states & they (Dems) will underestimate their weakness in several Blue states that are actually very vulnerable.
RFKJr. will pull at least 10% in at least half of the states where he is on the ballot. Anyone attempting electoral calculus without accounting for RFKJr. is kidding themselves. The RFKJr. “protest” vote will be significant and possibly determinative.
There is no way Biden is going to debate Trump. There aren’t enough drugs in the world for him to last through a debate. He probably couldn’t even stand for 2 hours. Even if his handlers get the questions in advance and he has a telepromper he will bumble and look like a fool. The debates won’t matter anyway. Trump supporters will vote for Trump. Biden supporters will vote for Biden. The people that are voting because of the economy/inflation and illegals will either vote for Trump or RFK or stay home. All of these will help Trump. The economy will be sooooooo much worse by the election that Trump is going to win by a landslide.
It’ll happen, and it’s even money on whether trump’s diaper will leak.
That’s like saying Charlie McCarthy won’t debate. Because Charlie was a famous dummy act of Edgar Bergen the ventriloquist. So some shell of a Biden will debate and we get to see NatSec pharmacology / neural science at work. Popcorn.
My favorite “issue” is “protecting democracy”. It was completely made up by Biden and the regime media.
Trump should skip the debate. Make up some nonsense about moderator bias, then run a solo town hall.
Why take any risks when you are so far ahead?
vboring. I agree. Trump is going to run into moderators questions that are a set up over snd over to make Biden look like he is not at room temp.aka, Dead.! Trump should by pass this sh.. show and leave Biden in his crypt. He has nothong to gain snd everthong to lose
Yup. That’s Politics 101.
Because he can’t stand the thought of Biden calling him a chicken.
The real rate of rent inflation is much much higher for low income groups.
Many people paid no rent during the pandemic because of local bans on evictions.
If your credit already sucks, there was no consequences for skipping rent, so many did.
Similar story for utility bills. You get to help pay for their water, gas, and electricity because disconnections were prohibited for years.
The winners of this election will be the VP : Tim Scott vs Gamala.
RFK should have picked Woodie Harrelson as VP. “It all started on that fateful Friday afternoon November 22,1963… dad knew that Dulles had Poppy Bush nearby…”
Most people loathe inflation. Rent inflation, food inflation, medical inflation, education inflation, etc… They are all related. They are all caused mostly by credit creation. Every new dollar of credit created debases the dollars in your wallets. Catering to lobbyists also needlessly raised the cost of products and services.
I’m wondering what Mish thinks about Vivek Ramaswamy’s speculation that the June debate, apparently the earliest ever presidential debate, is the work of democrats to give them time to replace JB by the August convention if he bombs the June debate.
That theory belongs to Nate Silver I think. But I am not positive who was first.
I doubt it, but it’s possible.
I may cover the idea. It’s an interesting one. There is a simpler explanation though and I am a big fan of Occam’s Razor.
Please include your thoughts on a replacement. I thought for sure there would be a replacement (i.e. Newson, Pritzker) but I think if they don’t give it to Kamala the blacks will revolt. The Democrats also have the problem if Joe wins he probably won’t live through the Presidency so Kamala will be President and she is NOT controllable. She will be a lot worse than Biden.
I can’t imagine anyone putting all their marbles one one debate. He has screwed up everything. One debate ain’tgonna fix it.
Replacing Senile Joe would require the DNC to admit Joe has been a spectacular failure, or it would require Joe to step aside gracefully. Hunter NEEDS a pardon, but Joe doesn’t need a deal to give Hunter a pardon.
While the democrats have some (current) JV players who may or may not go varsity in 2028, they have no one who could enter and win now. Anyone willing to step in with less than six months remaining in the game is just a bench warmer. Anyone good is hoping to set themselves up for 2028, not vying to follow Joe around with a pooper-scooper.
The DNC knows they are going lose this season. They are hoping for a good draft pick now.
On the RNC side, if Tusli Gabbard agrees to be Trump’s VP and does a decent job (she just has to keep doing what she has been doing)… she will be impossible to beat in 2028
According to the Presidential Historians 2024 panel rankings, Trump is by far the worst president in this country’s history. Even the historians that tend toward Republican/Conservative ideologies rank Trump among the 4 worst presidents (BTW, Biden is ranked 16th). You would think this kind of objective information would impress voters. Instead, voters seem to vote on their feelings about inflation, health care, and housing, all issues where American presidents have little to no power to make any difference. I am warming up to the idea of mandatory civic classes before allowing people to vote.
That’s hardly ‘objective information’ – what metrics are being used to make the decision? Historians will have their decisions colored by the weight of things that they have personally lived through as much as anyone else.
Look it up. https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24434298/presidential_greatness_white_paper_2024.pdf
I bet you still think Dan Rather was an honest and objective voice and a “trusted” source of news
These are 154 experts on US presidential history. And Trump is by far the worst president in their view (Buchanan is next but much better than Trump).
Do you mean like the 51 intelligence community experts that signed the letter stating the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation just before the 2020 election?
Or all the experts that screamed about Russian interference in 2016 and the then treasonous crossfire hurricane spying operation and corrupt take down on unrelated made up charges of several members of the Trump campaign? And all of it was subsequently proven ALL 100% to be untrue, made up, complete BULLSHIT
You guys are all clowns and like children the way you believe and swallow propaganda.
There was obviously Russian interference on behalf of Trump in 2016. The Muller report has the details if you believe in facts and logic. For the Russians, Trump is the best way to split this country into crazed, warring camps. Just look at our debates on this website.
Truman paid his own postage for personal letters and Ike looked like everyone’s grandfather on the golf course. Meanwhile, The Dulles Boys and the CIA stole the country ever since.
Why doesn’t anyone see this?
It’s right in front of you.
It’s all theatre.
I swear It’s a hopeless situation when no one can what is in front of them?
Bad Times Ahead
Penguins that ignore the leopard seals get eaten – ignoring reality eventually gets you killed
yikes.
But .. but … they all still had their security clearances so they must know, right? And Mike Morrell, Acting Director, got the idea from Tony Blinken. It wasn’t us! Even if the letter phrased it as “appeas” like Russian disinformation. Americans are having a heckuva time distinguishing literal from figurative language. If you are a man and live like a woman, it doesn’t mean that you ARE a woman. Wow. Amazing.
Uncle Albert …thank goodness, just by chance. Admiral Halsey was out to sea with the good stuff on that fateful morning of Sunday December 7, 1941. Who coulda saw that coming?
“experts”… LULZ.
in case you haven’t noticed, the “expert” class forfeited all credibility decades ago
go pull your “I heart Fauci” t-shirt out of the dryer before it shrinks.
Sure. At least Fauci knows something about viruses. But no problem if you stick to the former president’s bleach therapy.
Nothing objective about opinions and it is a logical fallacy to claim presidential historians are somehow experts on ranking the past presidents. It is very subjective and subject to bias as how presidents are ranked. Probably the least ineffectual president since WW2 was Carter but he was still the most decent/moral president of the past 100 years so depending on how you weigh all the pros and cons of each president then does he get a high ir low rank?
Personally I don’t rank Trump highly but Biden ranks low to very low on nearly every metric. Pedophile (daughters shower, hair sniffer), adulterer ( he broke up his wife’s former marriage with his affair), corrupt (10% for the big guy), racist , traitor (in pocket of CCP) and an economic disaster with rampant inflation. How anybody could vote for him is just nuts in how they want 4 more years, pause.
Their ranking is widely considered the most objective one. Keep in mind that even those historians who should have bias in favor of Trump think he was one of the worst presidents. On Carter, you are right: he comes out as the most underrated US president in the survey.
Carter is now #22, and he keeps moving up the rankings.
The Dems should give Carter another chance this time around.
Gee, I guess I should change my vote then, because Albert on MishTalk says Trump is a baddie.
Thanks for that life changing information Albert, you really saved me from an embarrassing legacy.
The last paragraph is total projection.
What $75,000 / year elite college sh-holes are they from?
Biden is not ranked #1?
How would he get past Obama?
Forever enshrined as the greatest man to ever live…
The savior who brought you the soul crushing Obamacare.
The one who brought in the Dreamers……then hung them out to dry legally.
The guy who said “vote for me and I will fundamentally change america”.
And he did.
How many amphetamines, ritalin and steroids can an 81-year old ingest without overdosing?
We are about to find out.
I call for clarification on the polling method.
How do registered and likely voters relate on a Venn diagram?
Are the two populations partially overlapping?
Or is one a subset of the other?
No matter how I interpret the definition of “likely” voter, the polls and narratives don’t make sense.
There is a serial down voter hereabouts. I am thinking the overlap is probably closer to 50%. Not sure why they put the two groups in there as separate, but my assumption is that it helps Biden’s optics in some manner. Otherwise that data would be chucked out.
I’m frankly surprised they publish these numbers at all. I do see the news media hedging their bets all of a sudden though.
“Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.”
YES. YES. YES
If you havent seen him. Go watch this guy Ivan Raiklin on Twitter X.
I hope this guy isn’t another tshirt selling, substack selling, talking head *media* show grifting charlatan like the rest of them and does what he says
If that 70 percent figure is true, the Russians and the Chinese have won the propaganda war.
No. I’m proof as well as everyone in even my remote-ist of circles are ALL included in this 70%
You are either blind or deeply lost. You must be in academia (propaganda)
To be truly accurate, all these polls need to include RFK2.0 as well as Greenie Jill Stein, Independent Corny West, and the Libertarian candidate (who will be nominated next week) and be on the ballot in all 50 states. At least an “Other” option beyond Donnie or Joey. Supporting one of these alternate candidates is not the same as “Undecided.”
They do.
There is little difference. The addition of the others slightly helps Trump.
I guess then these pollsters just don’t report the support for the other. They report 49-42 (or whatever), the results don’t total 100%.
They do report it. Go to Real Clear Politics. It’s all there. RFK Jr. adds about a point and a half to Trumps lead.
Unless they collectively turn a state, like CA, CO, IL, then their national polling means nothing.
Actually if RFK is on the ballot in CA, those who would have ordinarily voted for Trump should vote for RFK.
My brother lives in IL and he thinks Trump is going to win it. The blacks and hispanics are REALLY pissed at all the money the State, Counties and Cities are spending on the illegals. They are hurting for money while the illegals are getting free housing, free food and free healthcare. There is no money left over for the blacks and hispanics that are here legally.
The RFKJr. “protest” vote will be FAR more significant that any of the pollsters recognize.
“…little difference…” Yeah, keep believing that… because pollsters have a great track record in this century, right? They’ve been sh!tting the bed in simple binary elections, and now there’s a massive wildcard variable in the mix – but I’m sure they’ve got it all figured-out. Puh-lease.
I guess Fuckerburg is going to have to reach deeper into his pockets this time and all the NGO’s need to hire more mules
And that is not an anti semetic posts. Its an anti Democrat Party of the United States post
The DNC needs to be listed under the FARA Act as a Foreign Agent working in the United States.
AIPAC controls our politicians.
Regarding Trump, we have no choice. I will vote for him though I’m not pleased about it like back in 2016.
RFK jr picking his honeypot for VP and his Israeli butt kissing turned me off amongst other things. Really too bad because he would have been a good alternative if he could be rational. Some of his liberal views are in the same camp as Biden.
Biden, you’d have to be out of your mind.
Lastly, I could vote for Ron Paul, but that’s a protest vote because all three candidates stink. Just comes down who stinks less. Still not sure: Trump or Ron Paul.
I don’t know much about Nicole Shanahan, but I did watch her do a two hour interview with Luke Gromen discussing the national debt and our options for addressing it.
Show me another candidate that has shown any interest whatsoever in the debt (other than making it significantly worse like Trump and Biden have done). I don’t know how much she got out of the conversation with Luke Gromen, but I cannot imagine many folks in DC who are even capable of holding a 5 minute discussion on the debt, much less two hours.
That video was the third video on her channel (obviously the first was with RFK), so that’s clearly a priority.
Sure, both her and RFK have a questionable past and have positions I disagree with. However, we’ve already seen what Trump and Biden are capable of, and either one will be even worse as a lame duck. I can poke both Trump and Biden’s record full of holes. I don’t think the current system will allow a successful third party run, but I think RFK would do a better job as President than either of the other two (though admittedly the bar is low enough that I think 95% of blue collar workers in the US would do a better job than any President we’ve had in the past 25 years).
Biden advantage was people of USA were unable to conceive just how Radical and left wing he was.
That veneer has worn off in spades as impact of his mal-adminstration affects all layers of the Strata.
America has had a good dose of his stench and want him gone.
And they’re willing to vote for a convicted rapist and conman instead. The end of the republic is near.
No LM the end of the Republic isnt near. Believe it not 1999 was also supposed to be end of the world cause of a computer problem. We’re all still here.
No it’s you. We’re not voting for Trump, we’re voting against you.
@Commenter…agreed. I’ve talked to a bunch of my neighbors, some Dem, some Rep. It appears that all are voting against a candidate, rather than for a candidate. It’s a shame that the choices are pretty much distasteful on both side. This is the best that we can do? Reading comments on a bunch of websites, both liberal & conservative, there appears to be an underlying, pent up anger that is waiting to explode. We are definitely a country divided.
I think we are just a country underpaid. In 1970, the lines for pay and productivity separated, where productivity gains went to owners — no longer to the workers. Ever since then, the whole of the country got poorer, more interested in Jerry Springer and more interested in negatives than positives.
Nail on the head
I guess you are off your meds again or confused about who molested who in the shower with their daughter.
Biden convinced all the independents he would be a moderate. He turned into the Progressive dream candidate.
Turns out young voters and blacks increasingly don’t like the result.
…and hispanic males.
“Young voters are angry about rent, angry over home prices, and angry over mortgage rates. That is reflected in the polls.”
Excellent analysis but what’s missing is how will Trump fix housing and inflation especially with his tariff happy trigger and the strong desire to replace Powell and move rates back to zero? It’s like these people are drowning and the solution is to throw buckets of water at them from either candidate.
No matter who wins, there will be more inflation, that’s an assured guarantee. The next president, who ever that is, will go down in history as the worst president ever because they won’t be able to fix anything and everything is already tearing at the seams.
Sadly, you are correct. Trump is not a deep thinker. Has this moron said anything regarding how to tackle the debt? How the heck do the American people pick losers like this? Also, how come we can’t get better people for these positions? I just see the decay of ancient Rome as our country’s reflection.
And Biden is a genius? Har Har Har Hardee Har Har
This and this alone.
My friend Dean is the smartest human alive and I work with a lot of smart people. He literally knows everything.
I said, “Dean who’s is going to win the election?”
Dean replied, “who ever they want to win.”
Nothing has fundamentally changed since they killed JFK except for the steady erosion of your rights. America and the 5 eyes are descending into hard, fascist totalitarianism. It doesn’t matter (((except in your head))) who the president is. The fed and lobbyist’s determine the trajectory of the country. DC runs on money, just not your money.
The global economy is cyclical and ascribing the ups and downs to the phony clown in office is absurd.
Remember the Bush and Gore election fake out? How about no one knowing Obama from Law School? How about the staged theft of Trumps votes that was meant to enrage you. How about Trump destroying 1500+ of his supporters lives in an ongoing broad lesson in obedience. OBEY
We the people have lost; the consolidating fascist melding of corporate and government won.
It’s un-American to say we are “losers”, but we are. Brainwashed and Bifurcated into helplessness, with no solid reality to stand on.
Participating in this is to sanctify it. You’re condemning your descendents into a dystopian digital hell where eventually satellites (space force) will beam us with biologically disruptive RF and will torture those who disobey and oppose them in their homes. That’s what’s coming. Musk and Hughes satellites with 30,000 beams – beaming the shit out of you.
Unless the system is torn down and begun anew the extraction of human chi will continue unabated. Like serfs you will get less and less and less and the pigs will get more and more and more.
Hey boomers don’t think for minute they’re going to let all the wealth go to your descendent’s. They have tricks up their sleeves that only require a national emergency to implement. Someone is going to steal it, either the government or counterparties to your trades.
Here’s a prediction:
Trump will win the election and then attack Iran this will spin out to include Russia and China. 4th turning incoming.
Biden would win the election if he solves Gaza and Ukraine and hands out more money.
So what’s it gonna be?
Dean replied, “who ever they want to win.”
Sorry, That is ridiculous.
There is no “they” if you disagree please tell me precisely who “they” is.
Your friend is not quite as bright as you think.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg-jvHynP9Y
I left the answer to Mish’s question to those with more authority and qualifications than me.
Eisenhower’s departure speech:
Is there really anything to dispute in it?
Is it less valid now Mish?
If so why?
Ignoring the obvious will never solve the problem.
The problem: murdered JFK , killed 3000 Americans and released pernicious medical totalitarianism. Your a fool if you think that is the end of it. It’s just business as usual when (((they))) control the country,
As much as I am a fan of Mish (for longer than most) the world will never improve until the brainwashed boomers are gone.
Probably bankruptcy.
Have you followed any of Luke Gromen’s work? He says that once a country’s debt exceeds 100-120% of GDP, their options become limited (and we’re past that point). He points to the post WW2 period of 1946-51 where the debt went from 110% to 55% of GDP with the Fed doing yield curve control and letting inflation run and believes we’d need to do the same today, only with a higher rate of inflation (probably 15-25%). His point is that this would take wealth from boomers (the wealthiest generation in history) by significantly devaluing their bonds and drive up real wages for those workers who are actually productive.
I haven’t studied this idea in depth like he has and have some questions about how real wages would outpace inflation, but Luke does make an interesting case with points I have not considered.
Incidentally, Nicole Shanahan (RFK’s running mate) just had a 2 hour youtube video with Luke where they discussed this in depth. I’m not sure what to make of it, but I was impressed that a candidate for national office actually interviewed Luke about the national debt. That’s a step (however small) in the right direction.
So the folks in academia and in big media outlets are starting to realize the rest of the USA is not as batsh!t left wing crazy as they are??? This says a lot more about media and academia than it does about everyday Americans.
What will the WaPo tell us tomorrow? “Hey America, you won’t believe this: a year long joint NYTimes and WaPo investigation just revealed there is water in the ocean and sand in the desert!!”
Please, lets stop wasting money on Ukraine and Gaza, and instead spend a few billion on an emergency airlift of WaPo and NYTimes to Bolivia. Get the Ivy League universities ready for airlift next week. Thousands of Latinos are risking their lives to escape Marxism they already have, while US media and academics want to screw up the functioning economy in the US.
Send the media and academics to their idea of paradise in Bolivia; it will offset the illegal aliens who want a better life but got off to a really bad start by breaking US law before even saying hello.
I prefer Pinochet style free helicopter rides for the “media”
I was being sarcastic – I wouldn’t waste any taxpayer money trying to fix media. I wonder if Discovery thinks they can fix CNN or if they really just paid for the movie library; they are just going to let CNN run itself down? They now own CNN and I don’t know why they would waste money trying to fix it.
I can definitely see Garland, Jack Smith, the attorneys general, and the judges being indicted on federal election interference and insurrection charges. Insurrection probably won’t stick, but the election interference charges will. Every one of them will get disbarred (disbarment is automatic when convicted of a felony). The USA is not a third world banana republic. We don’t allow corrupt prosecutors and corrupt judges to decide elections with fabricated charges.
I think CNN (TV news in general) is literally fighting for survival. Trump will try to take credit for TV news dying… but TV news committed suicide.
If House Plant Potato Man debates Trump the election is over. Trump wins easily barring some crazy curve ball out of left field.
Full disclosure, I dislike both of these candidates, and generally refrain from voting.
The biggest risk in the debates falls on CNN. They have to go easy on Trump and really come down hard on Biden if CNN’s new owners want to eventually restore CNN’s credibility.
No one believes Biden is capable of coherent thought or speech, and the odds are high he will trip on a sandbag or some stairs.
Trump is going to be a loud mouth. Not exactly news to anyone.
Trump is going to be angry at the mistreatment and illegal behavior of Merrick Garland and the DAs in NY and GA. He has every right to be, and if CNN doesn’t acknowledge this and condemn the DAs (and Jack Smith) … then CNN might as well go off the air.
Voters are very familiar with Trump and Biden (and RFK too). Is there anything these candidates would or could say that will change anyone’s opinion of them or change anyone’s vote? Nope.
Discovery Communications has put on a lot of new programming and made the establishment media look really bad (not that establishment media didn’t help).
Decades ago, lots of media “experts” (aka loud, highly opinionated people) said that TV was not a good medium for credible news. Walter Cronkite was the exception that proved the rule — without Cronkite, TV news just sucks on all channels.
Bernard Shaw was no Walter Cronkite, but at least Shaw wasn’t a lying, screaming political activist like nearly everyone on CNN since (and MSBC and Fox and ABC/CBS/NBC and … and .. and …). CNN’s credibility is on the line, and odds are that big TV news (all channels) is going to get phased out and eliminated. Bloomberg, WSJ, NY Times and WaPo aren’t looking good long term either.
This sequal rivals the worst ones Hollywoodland has ever produced.
A plurality won’t vote in this election. A sizable number that do will hold their nose and vote against one guy to ‘save’ the U.S. from him. Combined, most voters aren’t for either major candidate so can the whole exercise be skipped in lieu of a coin toss?
Turnout will be 55% to 65%.
If 65% vote (historically that would be a very good turnout), what percent do you think the winner will get?
They would need to get at least 54% of the popular vote to exceed the percentage that doesnt vote, which hasn’t been done since 1984.
Do NOT trust the polls.
Look at the HUGE enthusiastic crowds at Trump rallies and the lone Biden rally had just a few real people with most of the rest being media that was required to attend.
I heard this prior to the last (s)election, and we all know how that turned out.
The fake Rent CPI is killing Biden. Blue collar millennials and gen Z are making
$70K- $175K salaries. WMT split 3:1 bc it’s not for the elite. Gen Z elite are pro Palestinian’s state from the river to the sea, bc they don’t want to get killed fighting for Israel or Ukraine.
And, Biden should never have agreed to a debate. Trump will not debate his own party members. He obviously will not debate Biden. Biden should have just said no and used past recent elections to show how awful Trump is to the average person.
And Biden refused to debate RFK Jr, changed the rules on the New Hampshire primary and has refused to give him Secret Service protection, hoping RFK will spend much of his funds on security or be shot.
As Biden changed the orbit of the moon in order to “gravitationalize” the drug industry so that vaccines would be available for every medical problem, plus double as a tasty soft drink. Fake news!
Bizarre to me that Senile Joe agreed to a June debate.
Hey Joey Baby, as much as I would like a trip with you, I don’t have time for the stage. You and Your Team, kept me away from too many engagements. I don’t have time to waste listening to your Fake Stories, Fake News, or the BS You Spew… See you in November, if your still standing upright!
You are forgetting the young women who I predict will come out in droves (as the boys came out during Vietnam to stop from being drafted) vs being forced to keep their rapists baby or go to jail. If so, Biden will squeak by (and he’ll control the national guard into 2025 so forget about any “civil war.”) Now, if Biden dies fast, or even dies before November, all bets are off.
And the Dems are selling the lie that they would “codify” Roe v. Wade into federal law. I can’t imagine what such a law would look like. (I’m a lawyer and once gave a lecture on the powers of congress using abortion and the “codify” lie as an example.) Congress can rewrite a federal aw if they don’t like the way the Supreme Court has interpreted it, but congress can’t fix the SCOTUS’ interpretation of the constitution.
It would look like the last 50 years when it was totally legal, and 51%+ of the population was happy with it
Young women have plenty of opportunities to be raped, what with Biden being one and the Soros attorney Generals and Obama judges letting rapists roam free,
But dont forget the wood elves who secretly planned with Elvis and certain gypsies to create camps for rapists to learn their trade!!!!!!!
Trump has already said he doesn’t plan to touch the decision and prefers to leave it to the individual states.
If I was Trump, in the debates I’d specifically mention that point and then challenge Biden to state his own plan (leave it in hands of states or promise a federal solution) and then see what Biden says. As a ‘devout Catholic’ I’d be more than curious to see what he’d say because my guess is he would not commit to a federal solution which then makes womens position on abortion at the federal level moot.
Trump believes in something until he doesnt.
“Even the Washington Post can spot Biden’s desperation.”
And we, THE CITIZENS, are sick to death of being presented with two Octogenarians who CLEARLY are desperate to CLING to power and MONEY or RETURN TO POWER AND MONEY.
Let’s get this very straight: THESE POWERFUL GOVERNMENT POSITIONS make a TON OF MONEY for the Champs who win seats – – whether in Congress or the WH.
The lobbyist machinery is cranking FULL CHARGE AHEAD in every major PROBLEM AREA that America is causing for its citizens: 1) The M.I.C. 2) Pharma and Health Care. 3) Commerce (Co’s that are exempted from Wrong-Doing Suits) 4) Justice System. 5) Infrastructure. 6) Inflationary Food Prices. 7) BIG INSURANCE, raising Premiums.
I could list them all but I do not need to do so here as this is a well-studied group of people that Mish attracts.
These Two men and their backers stand to continue to feed at the MONEY TEAT of big Government and it SUCKS, so to speak.
The debate is over. Unnecessary.
If you want higher taxes, for government medical care, a more regulated economy, more criminal illegally aliens, higher deficits and a bloated bureaucracy, the persecution and prosecution of Jews and Christians, more wars and political diplomatic instability, income inequity, higher crime rates, pedophilia, and your ability to choose what vehicles you drive, food you eat and really enjoy cold showers then vote for the oatmeal brain, kid sniffing, woman groping, psychopathic, pathological liar China and Ukraine bribe-taking loser FJB.