The UAE decides that its best interests are leaving the group. Let’s discuss the implications.
A Sudden Departure from OPEC
Official Announcement: ABU DHABI, 28th April, 2026 (WAM) — The United Arab Emirates today announced its decision to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC and OPEC+), effective 1 May 2026. This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets.
This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs.
Sovereign Responsibility in a New Energy Age
While near-term volatility, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, continues to affect supply dynamics, underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long term.
A stable global energy system depends on flexible, reliable, and affordable supply. The UAE has invested to meet evolving demand efficiently and responsibly, prioritising stability, affordability, and sustainability.
This decision follows decades of constructive cooperation. The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and continued its membership following the formation of the United Arab Emirates in 1971. Throughout this period, the UAE has played an active role in supporting global oil market stability and strengthening dialogue among producing nations.
The decision reflects a policy-driven evolution in the UAE’s approach, enhancing flexibility to respond to market dynamics while continuing to contribute to stability in a measured and responsible manner.
A Reliable and Responsible Energy Partner
The UAE is a trusted producer of some of the world’s most cost-competitive and lower-carbon barrels, which will play an important role in supporting global growth and emissions reduction.
Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.
With a large and competitive resource base, the UAE will continue working with partners to develop resources, supporting economic growth and diversification.
This decision does not alter the UAE’s commitment to global market stability or its approach based on cooperation with producers and consumers. Rather, it enhances the UAE’s ability to respond to evolving market needs.
We reaffirm our appreciation for the efforts of both OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance and wish them success. During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets. This is what we will focus on going forward.
A Balanced and Forward-Looking Approach
The UAE reaffirmed that its production policies will be guided by responsibility and market stability, taking into account global supply and demand.
It will continue investing across the energy value chain, including oil, gas, renewables, and low-carbon solutions, to support resilience and long-term energy system transformation.
The UAE values more than five decades of cooperation with partners and will continue active engagement in support of stable global energy markets.
A Blow to OPEC
The Wall Street Journal reports U.A.E. to Leave OPEC in Blow to Group
Quick Summary
- The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, dealing a heavy blow to the oil cartel.
- The departure further weakens OPEC, which has been hobbled by internal disunity and rising U.S. oil output.
- The U.A.E. will also exit OPEC+ and plans to gradually increase its oil production afterward.
The sudden departure of OPEC’s third-biggest producer further weakens a bloc that despite producing up to four out of every 10 barrels of oil pumped worldwide has been hobbled by internal disunity and the rise of American oil output.
The war in Iran has piled more pressure by exacerbating rifts among the Arab countries at the core of the group and by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which the group’s biggest producers export most of their oil, making it impossible for the group to influence the market during its biggest supply shock.
The U.A.E. is in a relatively privileged position with the ability to circumvent the blockage in the strait by routing more than half of its oil exports across the country. Withdrawing from OPEC will give it more freedom to make investments to expand its output and adjust to the uncertain future of the waterway.
The Gulf monarchy will also exit OPEC+, a group of major oil producers that includes Russia, and gradually increase production afterward, it added.
How Much OPEC Cheating Was There?
- OPEC+ cheating has been chronic and significant for decades — it’s a structural weakness of the cartel, not a new phenomenon. Historically, members have exceeded quotas ~96% of the time (1982–2009 data), often by 10%+ on average collectively.
- In recent years (pre-2026 Hormuz crisis), the main serial overproducers/cheaters were Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE (with Russia also frequently cited). UAE was a notable offender despite being relatively more compliant than some others — it often produced hundreds of thousands of barrels per day above its quota due to frustration over its baseline/capacity limits.
Does the UAE Exit Really Change Anything?
Structurally and long-term it does, but not dramatically in the immediate term due to the current crisis.
- UAE was already operating near (or above) its desired max: The exit formalizes what was happening anyway — they get full freedom to ramp toward their 5 mbpd capacity target by 2027 without quota fights. This removes one of the more “responsible” large producers from the discipline pool. gulfnews.com
- Blow to cohesion: It weakens Saudi Arabia’s leverage and could encourage others (Iraq, Kuwait?) to defect or ignore quotas more openly. Analysts call it a “heavy blow” and potentially “the beginning of the end” for effective cartel behavior. novinite.com
- Supply impact: Adds modest-to-significant downward pressure once Hormuz stabilizes (gradual extra barrels from UAE), accelerating fragmentation. However, with current war-driven shortages, it’s secondary right now.
- Overall cartel effectiveness: OPEC+ has never been a perfect cartel (cheating was baked in). The UAE exit highlights the ongoing erosion from internal rivalries, rising non-OPEC supply (US, Brazil, etc.), and diversification pressures. It doesn’t “kill” OPEC overnight, but it makes coordinated cuts harder and prices more volatile long-term. bakerinstitute.org
In summary: Cheating was already widespread and tolerated to varying degrees. The UAE move is more symbolic of fraying unity than a sudden game-changer in an already imperfect system — especially amid the current geopolitical supply shock. It tilts the balance further toward individual national interests over collective restraint.
Lie of the Day
The market did not bite this time.
WTIC Back Over $100
Today, I note a surge in the price of US West Texas Intermediate back over $100 to a high of $101.27.
As I type, its price is back under $100 to $99.40, up $3.08, about 3.2 percent.
Near term considerations are much more important than than any potential downward pressures perhaps years away.
And the market ignored Trump’s lie for a change.
Conclusion – Six Key Points
- The Gulf states are headed their own way.
- The cartel breakup is a good thing, but with cheating there was not much left of it in practice.
- The breakup is also an indication of a region where every country will decide for itself what allies its wants. Importantly, the Mideast states understand the US can no longer protect them.
- In the near future, this announcement does not matter at all. The price of oil will be set by strait blockages or openings.
- Infrastructure damage is massive.
- In the intermediate future, assuming a deal to let ships pass through the strait, it’s going to take many months (in some cases years depending on the facility), to get production back up previous levels.
A deal is still nowhere in sight.
Both Iran and the US believe they have some sort of waiting game advantage.
While the waiting game plays out, there is huge upward pressure on oil prices, fertilizer, helium, aluminum, and other goods that pass through the strait.
Related Posts
April 25, 2026: Mideast Dollar Funding Panic, Bessent Portrays it as Strength
I was asked to comment on US dollar swap lines to Mideast oil producers.
April 25, 2026: Is There Any Point to the Latest Peace Negotiations With Iran?
Trump wants Iran to say what’s on the table. The opposite is true as well.
April 27, 2026: Day 56, an Uneasy Stalemate in Iran, Germany Says Trump Has No Strategy
Iran makes a proposal the US won’t accept. The US makes demands Iran won’t accept. Is this strategy?
Hello world. It’s now day 57.
Netanyahu convinced Trump this would be over in 3-5 days.
UAE leaving _now_ means they expect higher prices for longer and want to maximize revenue. That’s all.
Wonder if UAE left OPEC in return for receiving the dollar swap deal with the US Fed
Shouldn’t the SEC be all over Trump for market manipulation? Can lying like this be part of his presidential duties? How is this kind of corruption now acceptable and just a footnote in the news?
It is sickening to see the US being led by what is for all intents and purposes the mafia. It is almost surprising that Trump didn’t just order a hit on Comey. By next year that will probably also be acceptable given the trajectory of American values.
If the economic architecture of this (shitty) region falls apart, can the security framework be far behind? Will UAE be the next country in the region to obtain a nuclear weapon? Remember, they have 4 working nuclear reactors and a ton of cash.
Exiting times, we are paying attention to this matter, thanks Trump!
U.A.E. has thrown its lot with the US instead of OPEC and OPEC+.
US Treasury swap lines extended with dollar pegged U.A.E. currency.
Other Asian nations have also requested dollar swap lines. Japan? India? S.Korea? Oman? Kuwait?
Eurodollar supremacy reigns supreme. So much for a BRICs or the renminbi extension of credit.
Trump has been handed an off ramp. Agree with Iran to open the Persian Gulf. Cut a deal on uranium enrichment similar to Obama’s JCPOA. With the uranium deal a US presence in W. Asia is no longer needed in conjunction with removing all sanctions on Iran.
Trump saves face. He declares victory. He continues his grift in foreign policy and trade deals.
Iran removes the US threat from the region. A transit agreement similar to the Dardanelles with Turkey administering traffic is consummated with Oman and Iraq administering the Straight of Hormuz. Iran earns foreign reserves in exchange for uranium enrichment agreement.
Israel is left twisting in the wind.
Is Trump smart enough to see this outcome? Most likely not.
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Why would Iran give up their nuclear stockpile in exchange for a tariff deal – they already are charging tariffs. Maybe they could exchange it for sanctions relief – but power is held by the “divide and conquer” adage. If they cut a deal and everyone starts to get along then they no longer need the US.
A tariff deal? Presently, Iran is charging tolls as a negotiation strategy as part of an armistice agreement or preferably a peace treaty or peace agreement is reached. The precedent for this is the Turkey’s control of the Dardanelles. Turkey regulates control of that international body of water. Iran has been preparing for this event since the end of the Iran – Iraq War.
The US will not return to the Middle East with bases or a military presence in the Gulf or in the region. Israel will now be further isolated in the region in the sense that its Greater Israel Project is neutered if not outright dead once the US departs. The US presence is kaput as a military player. Iran will not negotiate this away. Iran has been kowtowing to the US since ’53. Thanks to Trump’s mismanagement of the negotiations prior to this war and the war, Iran now has the best opportunity to restore their sovereignty and be a signifcant regional player in their neighborhood.
The regional players in West Asia that also includes part of Russia as well as Northern Africa will be better off without the waning US empire in that part of the world. China is in the process of building its Belt Road Initiative that will connect Europe with Asia via trade and prosperity similar to the Silk Road.
Iran, Russia, and China have plans. The US does not. So the divide and conquer play in this part of the world won’t work anymore as it has under French, British and US empires.
In short the balance of power in this region has shifted. This is what happens when a waning empire over extends its reach and is just reacting instead of recognizing that the world has changed.
Good chance if this war continues there will not be a UAE.
There has long been a diplomatic discussion on creating an alternative OPEC and getting other major producers to support it outside of the original charter (OPEC Statute). The OPEC statute is toothless, and mostly it was designed to create unity so that fluctuations in oil prices couldn’t be done that would bankrupt countries that relied on Oil Exports for a majority of its revenue to keep the country afloat.
What will be interesting is if Venezuela, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia wouldn’t move outside of OPEC.
OPEC look-alike without OPEC is DOA
I don’t think Iraq and Saudi Arabia would do anything in concert with Kuwait and Venezuela going forward even if this was a possibility.
Let the blade fall!
“President Trump warned Sunday that the Islamic Republic had until Wednesday before Tehran reaches maximum capacity, putting billions of dollars at risk. Iran has been producing about 2 million barrels of oil a day during the war.
Funny.
Iran has been exporting 1-2 mbpd of oil since the war began. And they are still exporting, no matter what the US says. The US may have stopped a few Iranian tankers, but we have not stopped them all. In addition, Iran is shipping oil by train and truck overland. And to top it off, they are selling their oil for twice the price they were getting before the war.
On the other hand, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq have been completely shut in for weeks now. Their oil fields are all shut down except for domestic needs. Surprise: Their economies have not collapsed.
Saudi, Oman and UAE have been able to maintain some exports, but have also had to shut in production as well. No collapse in those countries either.
And you KNOW all of this based on what sources? We look forward to a list of your sources. Curious minds want to know and all that. 🤣
If you read sources other than western propaganda you would understand. The Iranians are shipping it by rail or truck via Pakistan, and by tanker by hugging the coast in Pakistan’s territorial waters and into India’s. Not to mention the US navy is not stopping flagged ships of major countries like China’s.
So you mean read Iranian/Russian/Chinese propaganda instead?
Multiple independent sources confirm that Iran is still exporting oil despite the U.S. naval blockade. These reports document continued tanker movements, floating‑storage withdrawals, and shadow‑fleet operations that allow Iranian crude to reach buyers—primarily China—even under blockade conditions.
🛢️ 1. TankerTrackers data: Iran exporting from floating storage
TankerTrackers, a well‑known vessel‑monitoring service, reported that Iran shipped ~9 million barrels of crude from floating storage in the Gulf of Oman after the U.S. blockade began on April 13, 2026, plus another 2 million barrels the day before. This shows that Iran is still moving oil already positioned offshore, bypassing port restrictions. Anadolu Agency
🛢️ 2. Lloyd’s List Intelligence: Shadow‑fleet tankers bypassing the blockade
Lloyd’s List, a leading maritime intelligence service, found that at least 26 Iran‑linked tankers carrying oil and gas sailed through the Strait of Hormuz after the blockade took effect. These vessels are part of Iran’s “shadow fleet,” which uses obscured ownership, AIS manipulation, and reflagging to evade sanctions. The Teleg… +1
🛢️ 3. AFP / Kpler satellite‑tracking: Ship‑to‑ship transfers near Singapore
AFP, using Kpler maritime tracking data, documented that Iranian crude continues to be transferred at sea near Singapore, far from the blockade zone. Since March 1, at least 37 Iran‑linked tankers conducted STS transfers totaling ~62.3 million barrels, with cargoes ultimately bound for Chinese ports. This confirms that Iran’s global shadow‑fleet logistics remain active. Yahoo
🛢️ 4. AOL / The Independent: Chinese tankers still moving through Hormuz
Reporting from AOL noted that a U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker sailed through the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, demonstrating that some vessels linked to Iranian trade continue to pass through the chokepoint before occasionally turning back under U.S. pressure. This highlights inconsistent enforcement and ongoing Iranian export attempts. AOL
🛢️ 5. Anadolu Agency: Continued tanker traffic through Hormuz
Anadolu reported that 11 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours during the blockade period, including some Iran‑linked tankers. This indicates that the strait is not fully sealed and that Iranian exports can still move under certain conditions. Anadolu Agency
🛢️ 6. Fox News / OFAC sanctions: Evidence of ongoing Iranian shipments to China
U.S. Treasury sanctions announced on April 24, 2026, specifically targeted Chinese refineries and dozens of tankers because they continued receiving Iranian oil shipments, confirming that Iranian crude is still reaching foreign buyers despite U.S. interdiction efforts. Fox News
Summary: What the sources collectively show
Across vessel‑tracking firms (TankerTrackers, Kpler), maritime intelligence (Lloyd’s List), and major news agencies (AFP, Anadolu, AOL), the evidence is consistent:
• Iran is still exporting oil, though under pressure.
• Shadow‑fleet tankers continue to move crude out of the Gulf.
• Floating storage withdrawals allow exports without port access.
• Ship‑to‑ship transfers near Singapore keep crude flowing to China.
• Multiple tankers have crossed or attempted to cross Hormuz since the blockade began
Looks like you copied this from a chatGPT query. It is proper form on the net to specify the origin of copied info either through a URL or a reference and the use of quotes.
You neglected to provide a link to the original chatGPT response.
Additionally, there is also no specificity to what time frames we are talking about. One section states the blockade started on April 13th. Another reference ships crossing since March 1.
As a student trying to pass of chatGPT work as your own, your grade is an “F”. You need to do better than this old man. 🤣🤣🤣
CoPilot summary actually. And very accurate as I follow all those sources and have read all those reports. Feel free to look them up yourself; though you won’t because they won’t fit your narrative. I keep on top of these developments as the info is invaluable when making my investment decisions.
Today is Wednesday. Today is the day you said Iran will fill up all their storage and the collapse of their oil industry will begin.
Meanwhile, Iraq, Kuwait and others filled up their storage weeks ago and shut in their oil production. Care to talk about the impending doom in those countries first?
Use chatGPT or Perplexity. At least they give you a URL so others don’t have to depend on your half-baked response like the above. And give attribution when you post something that isn’t your own.
As you should be well aware, I follow much info myself and much of it is in direct conflict with your fawning Iran posts.
So we will have to wait and see who is forced to blink first.
Meanwhile, the stark reality is that shutting down oil fields causes problems which can result in damage leading to months of repair and recertification work before they can be restarted.
Iran is running out of storage and is going to have to close down their operations. Once they do that, even lifting the blockade will still hobble their whole economy for months going forward.
Iran’s ability to sell their oil is blocked if they can’t move it out of the Persian Gulf, which they can’t do because of the US blockade. If you want to contend against this point, then provide direct evidence including photos of Iranian ships getting past the US blockade in say, the last 5-7 days. .
Additionally, Bessent has blocked their ability to transfer money through normal banking channels. The UAE was a big enabler of Iran’s shadow banking activities in the past. But after Iran attacked them so heavily, they aren’t friendly any longer and are not helping them avoid pervious banking sanctions.
Trump looks comfortable in our position right now, so I think we might be close to game, set, match for the end of the Iranian Regime.
“Meanwhile, the stark reality is that shutting down oil fields causes problems which can result in damage leading to months of repair and recertification work before they can be restarted.”
Correct. It is “possible/probable” that once fields are shut down, it may take time to restart them and they may not get 100% back to original flows.
Shutdowns happened in all the countries in the Persian Gulf area many weeks ago. Over 10 million barrels of shut downs. And some of these shut downs were in Iran as well. This is all well known.
What this tells me is that when this conflict is over and the strait is fully open again, that there will be slightly less oil coming from all countries as “some” production will be affected.
Your narrative that this will destroy Iran’s economy, because ALL of their production will crash is ridiculous. We are talking a few percent of production at most.
And Iran is still shipping some oil, in spite of your narrative. And still collecting money from shipments that are still arriving in China and India.
Kpler estimates that Iran will not fill their storage “today” as you say.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-iran-war-news-in-22-days-iran-will-run-out-of-place-to-store-oil-it-produces-whats-next-11425219
One source says one thing, another says something else. No one knows for sure and Iran is certainly not going to make an announcement. So what point are you arguing? That my timeline for the eventually is off?
I also notice from your [questionable] article, which leads with “In 22 Days, Iran Will Run Out Of Place To Store Oil It Produces. What’s Next?”, that the analyst they refer to states that this event COULD range from 12-22 days.
NDTV is from India and India has a lot of sketchy players in everything.
The only oil Iran might be shipping is via rail and that is far less than what tankers can handle with far less revenue, FI they can even access the revenue.
Iran’s economy is ALREADY DESTROYED. It has been destroyed for a long time, which is why millions of Iranians were in the streets protesting in January and how 40-50,000 got killed for doing so.
On Tuesday, Iran’s currency dropped to the lowest point ever of 1.8 MILLION Rial to the the US dollar! THAT’S 1.8 MILLION!. Does this sound like what happens in a functioning economy? 🤣
See:
Time to tuck your tail between your legs grandpa and exit stage left! 😏
How old are you, sixteen?
He’s much closer to 116
I’m definitely in-between those two numbers!
Israel pays professional liars to disrupt and misinform internet chats and discussions. Paid Israeli liars show up to LIE to everyone, it is their state strategy.
Jojo is a fool, if you engage – well you know what they say about that.
https://electronicintifada.net/content/internet-users-paid-spread-israeli-propaganda/8355#:~:text=According%20to%20an%20article%20in%20*The%20Electronic,*%20**Target%20BBC%20Online%20and%20Arabic%20websites**
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/08/22/753578/Israel-pays-influencers-whitewash-famine-Gaza
Iran has two coasts, on the Persian Gulf and on the Caspian Sea.
We aren’t blocking the Caspian side. Kind of difficult to get US Navy ships into the sea. D’oh.
“ President Trump warned Sunday that the Islamic Republic had until Wednesday before Tehran reaches maximum capacity, putting billions of dollars at risk. Iran has been producing about 2 million barrels of oil a day during the war.”
I would not get my world news updates from the President – I like to use credible sources
So Trump is running a protection racket. No wonder everyone sees the United States as the bad guys.
We are the Evil Empire.
$40 oil by January.
Why?
Because Trump knows exactly what he is doing.
Please explain what he is doing that will result in oil prices of $40/bbl in January.
Business Mind! These new leaders have new thinking.
In your dreams….
Not good long term I would think for US producers. Going to make cap-ex plans for 2028 and beyond a lot more dicey.
I would guess that Eric Trump, Futures Trader, had tight stops in.
Them Trumpstien boys is financial geniuses!
oh good, the oil export experts are chiming in with their expert opinions. let me heat up the popcorn.
You don’t need to be an oil expert to love the gas prices. Next time you fill up, know that I’m collecting nickels and dimes as the gas goes into the tank 😉
Hopefully, you will finally accumulate enough cash to actually be able to exit to somewhere where the internet does not exist.
In simple terms . . . It means the CARTEL is breaking up which will not be good for prices or the Dollar !
Is extracting as much oil as possible a genuine policy of defending the national interest? Wouldn’t it be wiser to make the resource last as long as possible, and even extract almost exclusively for our own needs? Of course, this assumes that we are capable of creating wealth in ways other than plundering our natural resources to sell them abroad.
The real problem with selling oil abroad is that domestic consumers will be put in direct competition with international consumers.
In this environment where the international consumer is willing to pay a very high price for oil the domestic consumer will see domestic prices go up.
Sure they “will make a hell of a lot of money” (Trump’s words, not mine) but at the cost of putting more economic strain on an already spent us consumer. When (wti) oil climbs above 125 (and it’s looking that it will – my guess is summertime) watch out!
Why? Because I’m almost sure very few us consumers are looking this far ahead.
Many oil producing countries forbid the domestic pricing of oil to be tied to the international markets. Some of these countries have an export tax on oil to achieve the same result.
The us being the bedrock of capitalism in this world (though some would argue that it isn’t capitalistic) it seems the us is/was unwulling to make such laws for the good of its people.
But maybe this time around they can see and implement the wisdom of such laws. But by that point, at least in this cycle, it will be too late.
They might indeed be forced by domestic politics.
Would definitively blow up US/European relations, who may finally be forced to revise their hatred of Russian molecules combining hydrogen and carbon.
Exported oil tariff incoming!
The US should do the same. All the oil producers in the US are making beaucoup profits now with oil $40 or more higher than it was 8 weeks ago!
Solar could render it worthless before they got it all sold. They could still sell it, but the demand would be limited to things that we make out of it instead of burning it.
Who knows when that might happen though?
That would be too rational.
Few if any country is that rational, and ultra-short thinking USA definitely not.
It has the stain of intellectualism, and we don’t do intellectualism.
Off the cliff is much safer.
You act as if “we” own those petroleum resources. They belong to the companies who invested to explore, bought the land, and drilled for the oil/gas. It is there’s to sell as they see fit.
Good Grief.
What a long winded way to say they’re broke, and need any revenue they can get.
In the long run, it’s very hard to compensate lower margins on production with greater volume, especially if it impacts capital spending. Probably this will lead to more violent oil price cycles. Since demand varies with economic activity, it’s pretty hard to judge when the price of oil is stifling the world economy or depressing profit margins and state revenue.
All in all, we will have to wait if these artificial emirates (and Bahrein and Qatar and Kuwait) survive. They are more authoritarian than Iran, have fractured populations, have less rights for women, are repressive, especially towards the 90% of the population that is imported to work as slaves and are in fact oil protectorates of American power.
Everything everyone says about Iran and human rights and democracy applies to these little monarchies even more, so why is no one clamoring about doing something about them?
The Arab states work closely with the big American oil companies (many of whom have an interest in the state owned companies) buy billions of US arms and heavily invest in US stock and bond markets. Iran doesn’t do any of those things. Now you know the real reason for war.
Iran would be delighted to be able to sell oil freely for dollars on world markets.
Most people think of all of those countries as Arab, the Persians are just forgotten.
We saw a Documentary, on recent events in Qatar and things are getting slow with a dribble of Visitors.
So many escorts and OnlyFans actresses in dire straits…
Most people don’t want to play drone roulette.
Some of the GCC have large Shia populations, notably Bahrein and Kuwait. They were actually hooting for the Iranian ordinance to hit the infidel occupation in their countries.
Not to mention the gulfie tyrannies treat their Shia populations like eighth class residents.
Speaking of Bahrain. We should do the same!
But we were assured that everyone hates Iran and were just itching for the US to make war!
(Like so many other US and Israeli tropes, that is a recycled Nazi talking point, that antisemitism was justified because antisemitism was rife in eastern europe, which had large Jewish populations.)
The have the tradition of desert nomads which the Brits picked randomly to rule their desert sheikdoms.
By stroke of luck they found themselves sitting on the world largest oil reserve, and thus started the incestuous relationship with their western protectors.
Iran is a real country with history much older than Islam.
“And the market ignored Trump’s lie for a change.”
You can only (lie or) jawbone so much before the reality becomes so great it can’t be ignored.
When the lying becomes part of the foundation of collective reality, unwinding said lie can take time (each individual has to come to terms with what they are experiencing vs what they were told). This conflict (faith/hope in whatever vs reality) shows the great lengths humans will go to keep the faith/hope alive. Because the alternative is to admit their tolling to deny the truth was just that – denial.
And it is here where things can take a dark trun, as having understood that they not only been lied too, but also been lying to themselves: well we shouldn’t talk about these things unless in a clinical setting should we?
This much I can tell you the downswing will be violent and people will not sit still knowing they been duped, and their way life becomes unattainable and, or due to the lies told, taken from them. And the reason why is because we are coming to the point where the debt burden of not just individuals and families, but also corporations and our govt will be crushed by said debt burdens.
“People are stupid. They will believe a lie because they want to believe it’s true, or because they are afraid it might be true.”
― Terry Goodkind
I think it’s rather harsh to call people stupid, or to make such a blanket statement for all humans (exceptions don’t make the rule).
What some call stupidity I call conditioning.
Maybe the UAE wants to make a deal with a customer and cut out the rest of OPEC.
It’ll be interesting if that sole customer is China. They can trade oil for BYD cars.
If they still have electricity.
BYD cars + solar panels. They get a lot of sun in the UAE.
I know. I just meant in the short term. UAE and Qatar have been the most closely tied to the US, so their oil fields and facilities will get the full brunt of Iranian retribution if the Axis of Evil restarts “kinetic action”. Then they wouldn’t have anything to trade to China for a couple years.
This does remind me of “Brexit” for some reason but I’m all for more competition in the region. Perhaps they’ll all start undercutting each other to the benefit of the consumer, monopolies are never good.
But, just as the UK is in an abysmal state, this is where “strength in numbers” may come back to haunt them at some point down the line.
I hope you have an upcoming post on inflation based on the oil prices this month and where we’re headed if this keeps up. The fed was looking through the rear view mirror on tariff inflation and now they claim to be looking through the rear view mirror for high oil prices, always a day late and a dollar short.
FOMC meeting coming right up.
Excellent post. I award 1-star Mishelin rating.
The GCC does seem to be splintering (as the EU ultimatly will) so this UAE move may indeed be some form of “Brexit”. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a cold war for several years now. Take Yemen, where they are backing opposing factions. They also support opposing sides in the civil war under way in Sudan. And the UAE has been too cozy with Israel in places like Somalia for Saudi tastes. In the past, their shared opposition to Iran and the shared opposition to the Arab spring by both monarchies kept them together as allies. And of course, MBZ (UAE) supported the rapid elevation of MBS (Saudi Arabia) a decade ago, so there was a bromance there too. But that’s all gone.
And then you have the split between Saudi Arabia/UAE versus Qatar that occurred several years ago with the Saudi Arabia/UAE blockade of Qatar.
The US is allies with all these countries. It doesn’t seem like we can even protect them from Iran, so when the next split among them comes, who is the US going to protect against who? It’s just a quagmire.
It doesn’t mean anything – and if the Axis of Evil strikes Iran again, UAE ain’t going to be pumping any oil anyway.
You can’t make that assessment until the AIPAC crew chimes in, where’s JoJo, realityczech and the others? Come on guys, tell us what Bibi thinks about all this.
LOL. Something about Trump playing 5D chess, Iran is desperate, they’ve been totally disarmed, the US Navy can stop all shipping everywhere, yada yada.
Trump might as well claim he can sit on his hands and wait for Iran to accept his terms 100%. Then we can find out how truthful he is being.
All the same lies Trumpstien spews from his face-anus.
Well, I see that the usual suspects above are piping in with their uninformed literal 2 cents opinions!