Iran makes a proposal the US won’t accept. The US makes demands Iran won’t accept. Is this strategy?
Day 56 of the Conflict
- Conflict Start: February 28, 2026.
- Current Status: Cancelled peace talks, fragile truce, blockade in effect, strait closed
Live Updates WSJ
Merz Says U.S. Has No Convincing Strategy and Is Being Humiliated by Iran
WSJ Link: The U.S. was being humiliated by Iran and didn’t have a convincing strategy to end the conflict, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday.
“The problem with such conflicts is that you don’t just need to start them, you also need to end them,” Merz said in his most damning comments yet about the war. “I can’t see right now what strategic exit the Americans are choosing.”
“The Iranians are being very clever in how they’re negotiating—or rather not negotiating. How they’re letting the Americans travel to Islamabad and back without any result,” Merz told students at a school in western Germany. “An entire nation is being humiliated by Iranian leaders and the so-called revolutionary guards.”
Merz said the war was inflicting extensive damage to the German economy through higher energy prices, but added that he wasn’t hopeful it would end quickly “because the Iranians seem to be stronger than we thought and the Americans don’t appear to have a convincing strategy for the negotiations.”
Trump finally has a strategy. It believes it can wait Iran out. But Iran believed it can wait Trump out. One side has to be wrong.
Iran Offers Deal That Would Lift Hormuz Blockade—and Shelve Nuclear Talks
WSJ Link: Iran has presented regional mediators with a new offer to stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war and a lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, according to officials familiar with the matter.
The proposal, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during his tour of the region and Pakistan over the weekend, is designed to break the deadlock in the conflict and set talks back in motion, the people said. It would see discussions about Iran’s nuclear program shelved. Washington hasn’t responded to the proposal, one of the people said. Iran’s mission to the United Nations didn’t respond to a request for comment.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales declined to comment on the proposal beyond saying the administration wouldn’t negotiate the contours of the deal in public. President Trump “will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Wales said.
Iran Has an Oil Storage Problem. Will It Bring an End to the War?
Current State of Affairs
- The war is not over. Instead, the war has changed from military to economic warfare. Curiously, both sides have a blockade of sorts.
- Not negotiating is a negotiating strategy.
- Trump’s strategy is Iran’s strategy. Both sides seem intent on waiting each other out. At least, one side is wrong. But how long this can go on is uncertain.
- The price of oil in the US is inching back towards $100 a barrel. That’s what Trump cares about, not the global price of oil.
- Trump sees global damage as a win for the US because US exports are rising. Yes, that’s idiotic because rising prices hit US consumers of gasoline. Rising costs of fertilizer, aluminum, helium, etc., hit US producers, manufacturers, and importers of impacted goods.
- The secondary problems for Trump are upset allies and the threat of China intervention by rare earth element restrictions.
- Trump really does not give a damn about allies, and that will have a lasting impact in the Mideast.
- Nor does Trump give a damn about public opinion. This is a very unpopular war. There will be political consequences in the Midterm elections.
- The AAA national average gasoline price is up again today to $4.11. Good luck with that on the midterms.
- The key problems for Iran are where to store the oil it pump and lack of oil revenue. But Trump has elections to worry about, Iran doesn’t.
The net impact of the above is a protracted stalemate.
Following the debate on X and in mainstream media, there are numerous articles on why each side is brilliant, and will thus win. However, both sides have too much faith in their position.
Instead, let’s look at what we know..
Ten Things That Are Clear
- No one can accurately assess what Trump is likely to do, but he does want an off-ramp.
- Iran wants to inflict as much damage on Trump as it can.
- No one knows how much pressure either side can deal with, but Iran’s pain tolerance is very high.
- Iran does not have elections to worry about, Trump does.
- Rising global costs are permanent. Upward pressure on inflation continues.
- Infrastructure damage will take years to repair.
- US consumers and businesses are extremely unhappy about this war.
- US allies are also extremely unhappy and they are more willing to directly challenge Trump.
- The Mideast balance of power is shifting away from the US, not in a surge, but in drips. Mideast allies now understand the US military shield is not invincible.
- Mideast allies have dollar funding issues. Their pain is growing along with Iran’s.
One result of those ten things is Republicans rate to get smashed in the Midterm elections.
That reality is likely to make Trump even more demanding and erratic.
Related Posts
April 24, 2026: All Quiet on the Long-Bond Front. How Long Can This Last?
The 30-year bond has been remarkable stable given wild stock and oil market gyrations.
Note: bond yields are inching up again today but are still under breakout levels. The 30-year long bond is 4.945 percent as I type.
April 25, 2026: Is There Any Point to the Latest Peace Negotiations With Iran?
Trump wants Iran to say what’s on the table. The opposite is true as well.
April 25, 2026: Mideast Dollar Funding Panic, Bessent Portrays it as Strength
I was asked to comment on US dollar swap lines to Mideast oil producers.
xyzxyzxyz
Hold strong Trump!
Jojo, who asked the US to act as a ‘global policeman’?
If President Trump had wanted to take on this role then it would be nice if the President had gone to the appropriate US institutions i.e. Congress & the UN Security Council to seek a mandate to do this.
Why has my cost of diesel has ballooned by 40% without my elected representatives having any input into it.
What’s a “Senior Fellow Emeritus”?
Neocons for war – what a shocker.
The longest shipping routes in the world are around 50 daze.
We are now over that and into the “Buffering capacity” of physical supplies of many primary inputs across a wide variety of industries and fuels.
Shortages will be developing across a variety of products.
A tank of gas in Australia is $240 already and only going to get worse.
Brent at $109. WTI $97 and no solution in sight. Do the math, watch the wrath, and find a path to profits.
Money brings out the poet in me….
By the way, has anyone seen Doug78? Paging Doug78…. Here’s what Doug78 had to say about the Iran war on March 23 and here is the post:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-postpones-strikes-on-iran-claims-progress-in-talks-that-iran-denies/#comments
Well Doug78, you got just about everything wrong.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Doug also said that Trump would force Iran to accept every one of his conditions to end the war. Hahahahahaha! What a dumbass!
Meanwhile:
Every week seems to bring another trade deal. This week: India and New Zealand. Trump has been very successful in pushing the rest of the world to sign trade deals with each other, as they all try to reduce their trade with the US.
I guess the other countries of the world impacted by the oil flows out of the Strait better start thinking about doing something to make Iran see common sense.
Or Trump will keep increasing the pain level.
On who Jojo. The US Consumer?
Why shed tears for the lower 60%? The constant “woe is us” whining gets tiring!
So you admit that Trump is an extortionist running a protection racket.
I do not understand the suggestion that Iran cannot last much longer, because they will soon have to shut down their oil fields.
Iran has been exporting 1-2 mbpd of oil since the war began. And they are still exporting no matter what the US says. The US may have stopped a few Iranian tankers, but we have not stopped them all. In addition, Iran is shipping oil by train and truck overland. And to top it off, they are selling that oil for twice the price they were getting before the war.
On the other hand, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq have been completely shut in for weeks now. Their oil fields are all shut down except for domestic needs. Surprise: Their economies have not collapsed.
Saudi, Oman and UAE have been able to maintain some exports, but have also had to shut in production as well. No collapse in those countries either.
oh no! Someone with a functioning brain actually thinking here. Brent at $108 and everyone wants more!
I was very wrong to think that this would all be over in a few weeks, because anything longer would be disastrous to the world economy. I am shocked that the strait is still “almost” completely closed after almost 8 weeks. The impact on the world economy is already severe; though we have been mostly shielded in North America from the worst effects. The problem is that the effects are delayed and get worse as each day passes. It’s like a snowball rolling down a hill, gathering momentum, with the worst effects still to come over the next few weeks and months.
Ironically, the worst will come in the 2-3 months that follow after the strait is finally opened. Because it will take that long just to get things going again. But the pain will still be accumulating.
And the strait will not get back to the normal 100-130 ships per day in the next 5 years. The damage is done. Everyone will be looking for alternatives wherever they can find them.
The same thing happened with the Red Sea and Suez canal five years ago. Traffic has not yet returned to previous levels as alternatives come into play.
Well I’ve known all along Trump would crash the world economy (again). His gross incompetence with COVID should have been all the experience you needed and the 6 businesses he bankrupt as backup evidence.
All you can do now is position for profits from the crash and profit again from the recovery when democrats and sane government return to U.S.
But the best thing of all is to have a good exit strategy after everything normalizes because the worst is yet to come if a few years.
Do you have a gut feel how high oil is headed after the spr’s dry up? Is now a good time to be buying?
Oil, regardless of spr, is going 150+ before this ends (which will probably be early to mid next year).
My gut feeling is higher prices. But there are so many crude prices and time periods it is impossible to be specific. WTI, Brent, Murban, OPEC basket, Indian basket etc. Then spot price, May, June, July etc. And refined products like Jet Fuel, Diesel, Naptha which are in the shortest supply globally. However the trend for all should be higher prices.
SPRs are hard to track. Not much published data. And once the world uses up the 400 mb that they said they would release, they can still release some more. And China has 1500 mb in their SPR, though apparently they have been selling some to those willing to pay $120+.
In addition, we have now almost used up all the floating sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which have helped keep prices lower.
But prices should still rise because every day, we lose close to 15 mb from production and storage mentioned above is running down.
On the other hand, demand destruction is also taking place. Estimates are 2-4 mbpd of demand destruction so far. Which also delays shortages for a little while longer.
Thank you, Papa, I always appreciate your thoughts and analysis.
Before WWI, there was an influential and well-informed school of thought which held that any general european war could last a few months at most, as all side would run out of arms and money. The one who ran out last woudl win.
As I said, these were not stupid people, and they weren’t even wrong. Rather, they did not account for how far european elites would go to keep their war running.
You are correct. You just do not understand.
First rule is
The laws of Germany
Second rule is
Be nice to mommy
Third rule is
Don’t talk to commies
Fourth rule is
Eat kosher salamis
That’s for taking the time out to share this drivel with us.
People (including alot of commenters here) are underestimating the coupling between the US and world economy. The idea that we can wait this out with minimal damage to the US economy is misguided. Thats why many institutions are piling into bonds
The pain from Irans actions hasn’t even really started yet – we will find out how dependent we are on the rest of the world very soon , and that the president is wrong. Also Israels economy is a mess and they don’t have time either once the global pain starts
My prediction is that this will last until the Iranians are 100% sure the economic damage is felt during the US elections. That probably means july/aug and they definitely can hold out until then with help from Russia/China and others. There is a common interest to put Trump back in his cage
The sumnertime rolls as the lyrics once said, but so will the bombs june, july or august.
America isn’t gonna escape this without economic pain nor defeat.
This is all about the west accepting it doesn’t have the world under its foot anymore, and as such it’s power will be gone as well as it’s lifestyle of living on credit when this is over.
Yes, but as long as Trump and his rich buddies do not personally suffer, why should they care?
Trump also playing the long game, using Iran against China? That will teach China not to back the wrong horse!
China is doing fine.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359874.shtml
These clowns don’t travel anywhere, it’s abundantly obvious when they make fools of themselves calling other nation names like “primative” or “shitholes.”
The amount of amazing yet low cost tech coming out of China is mind boggling. First thing I do when I move overseas is buy a cheap BYD car, load up on cheap solar panels, and live like a tech king energy free.
But I’ll keep investments in the US and let the corporations squeeze these wage slaves for every nickel they got.
Yes, exactly. If more people in the US got to see with their own eyes how the rest of the developed world has a higher quality of life in real terms, not this nominal numbers driven BS economic model, they would be pissed!
But 50% will just keep chanting USA, USA while working on the debt plantation
Do you honestly think that a Chinese newspaper would be able to print the raw truth? You don’t know that the domane ending “.cn” is owned by China? Whew. You really are naive!
Hilarious.
I kind of mentioned this a while back … dictators dont care about inflation, nor do they care about the public, This is Trumps only chance to see if America can accept and be run by a king (namely, Trump) and he’s gonna push this to the brink, cause why wouldnt he? He’s 80 years old and dying from something, and hisory will record this as the TRUMP experiment. He has nothing to lose — he never has — so hes at the craps table with a mile-high pile of chips. He thinks we are all deadbeat tenants and he couldnt care less who lives or dies.
‘He ain’t looking so good’: Trump’s team under fire after leaked video shows him nearly fall again mid-speech — and no one moves
The Iran situation is NOT a stalemate, as some tout in their obsessive TDS.
Blockades take time. Consider a blockade as a minor type of siege. A siege can take years to work against the other party. I don’t think Iran can hold out for years or even months, so this could be over sooner rather than later, IF Trump doesn’t “TACO”.
As to the currently circulating thought that the Strait could be reopened while the nuclear weapon issues dealt with later, I should hope not!
This would be the same kick-the-can down the road approach embraced by past politicians, which got us into this situation. We should not release the blockade until Iran agrees to hand over the enriched uranium, agrees not to enrich further and agrees to regular, unrestricted IAEA visits under the threat of renewed bombing.
The US Navy won’t come close to Iran. Too dangerous. So, they’re sitting way out in the Arabian Sea. That means they’re too dispersed (and too few ships) to be able to interdict all Iranian tankers. That’s why Iran has gotten most of their tankers past the US “blockade”. Not to mention the US difficulty in stocking US naval vessels with food, fuel and weaponry from the other side of the world – especially after American bases in Bahrain and elsewhere were put out of commission by Iran. Iran has a far easier method of preventing non-allies from getting through the Strait – they just pop off a missile or drone here & there. This what happens when you pick a fight with a country on the other side of the planet. It’s their home turf.
No Iranian ships have gotten through the blockade.
Well Jojo if you believe that then I have a bridge here in London that I would like to sell you
Jojo,
I don’t know if you have noticed but Iran has been under some form of blockade for at least 20 years if not longer and they haven’t collapsed yet.
What makes you think that this time it would be any different?
Oh, well if Germany says it, it must be written in stone.
These headlines are getting more hair on firey than normal.
Quite entertaining.
Iran war disrupts the circuit board supply chain, raises costs for tech firms
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-disrupts-the-circuit-board-supply-chain-raises-costs-tech-firms-2026-04-27/
Maybe trump thinks if he stalls long enough the world economy will get so bad other countries will have to act. Drawing everyone one into ww3.
That will keep everyones attention away from the epstien files.
It all depends on Netanyahu. Other countries know this. Any actions will need to be approved by Netanyahu first and he wants the war to continue until he has turned Lebanon into Gaza. This will take 2+ years and lots of money from the US taxpayers to accomplish.
War disrupts many things, which is why it should be avoided except when absolutely necessary.
But once untaken, war should be conducted without restrictions to get it over as soon as possible.
So start with the nuclear weapons?!
So get over there and fight for this cause you so believe in. We’ll crowdfund your expenses.
I think Trump will come to a partial agreement with Iran in time for Taco Tuesday, possibly accepting Iran’s offer to re-open the strait and continue to negotiate the nuclear issues.
I don’t think Israel cares about whether the strait is open, and as long as there are other matters that still need to be resolved with Iran, Israel knows it can always sabotage them later.
Iran’s offer to re-open the strait was made with the understanding that the US would simultaneously stop impeding Iranian oil tankers. Right after Aragchi announced on X that the strait was open, Trump reneged on the arrangement and said the US “blockade” would continue. So Iran immediately said the strait was closed again. I can’t imagine they’ll re-open it just to “negotiate” with snakes like Kushner, Witkoff and Trump. I think it stays closed for months.
Israel sees any outcome other than the complete destruction of Iran (and the Gulfie tyrannies weak and completely dependent on the United States) as a defeat.
Oh ye of little faith. That means more tacos for me at the buffet tomorrow!
“Trump finally has a strategy. It believes it can wait Iran out.”
Referring to the leader of this republican administration as “it” is genius.
I will think differently the next time I hear things like “It was a mistake”, “It wasn’t supposed to happen”, “It’s a comedy”
Another excellent post Mish. This is the kind of info and analysis the mainstream media doesn’t offer.
Mish, what happens when the elections don’t happen or are blatantly manipulated?
Trump thinks he can argue elections need to be suspended during wartime. He was excited to learn that Ukraine had done that. Iran gives him the opportunity and the motiv.
I would expect that Democratic states and districts will be under sever scrutiny and manipulation
Ukraine’s constitution specifies no elections during wartime.
Alert: 20/30 Year Treasuries approaching 5% again. Get ready from an announcement from clown in office.
https://www.cnbc.com/markets/bonds/
June Brent at $108.22 but hit high of $109.79 today.
I believe this is much larger than what Trump wants and this is why he’s still in the game even though many claim he wants an off ramp. Trump was offered an off ramp many times and has refused it.
They say they wont allow Iran to set up tolls in the strait because it’s disrupting oil flow and trade from the region. Yet the Turkish Straits, the Red Sea Straits, the Suez Canal, and yes even the Panama Canal all demand a fee to cross. So it seems rather silly to think they’d refuse a peace deal because a toll has to be paid. Especially in light of the fact other waterways similar to the Hormuz charge one and the world still functions.
The issue surrounding nukes is silly too, imo, for Pakistan, North Korea and Israel all have nukes. Yet no western power is bombing them, or blocking trade to those countries to force them to give up their nukes.
And I don’t think this is about Israel. It’s more, IMO, about the weakening of western hegemony, and more specifically American power. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran seem to be main Eastern players that have been slowly (since 2014) whittling down both the alliances of the west and the global influence of the west.
It’s a game to break the confidence in these powers, for without confidence in these leaders the world won’t trade with much less view their currency as a store of value.
Its all about Israel. Iran knows if the war ends today, Israel will attack again in 12 months. There is no reason to end the war today, just to allow Isreal to rearm and attack again.
All of the proffered pretexts (“nuclear weapons”, “protesters”, “missiles”, “women’s rights”, “oil”, “the Straits”) for making war on Iran are just that – they are flimsy pretexts. That is why the pretexts keep changing, like a barroom bully who has chosen a victim and is looking for any excuse, however weak, to start a fight.
Truly, this never grows old:
“A WOLF, meeting with a lamb astray from the fold, resolved not to lay violent hands on him, but to find some plea, which should justify to the lamb himself, his right to eat him.
He then addressed him: Sirrah, last year you grossly insulted me.
Indeed, bleated the lamb in a mournful tone of voice: I was not then born.
Then said the wolf: You feed in my pasture.
No, good sir, replied the lamb: I have not yet tasted grass.
Again said the wolf: You drink of my well.
No, exclaimed the lamb: I never yet drank water, for as yet my mother’s milk is both food and drink to me.
Upon which the wolf seized him and ate him up, saying: Well! I won’t remain supper-less, even though you refute every one of my imputations.
Moral: The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny, and it is useless for the innocent to try by reasoning to get justice, when the oppressor intends to be unjust.”
Like in the fable, there is no agreement Iran can make that would satisfy Israel.
And that’s problematic isn’t it Feral, for in this situation to get out one must cripple, if not kill, the other.
They do say, “empires never go out silently, but with a big bang.”
Key is how big of a bang will it be (nuclear?) to over come the other.
“You say potato and I say potahto,
You like tomato and I like tomahto,
Potato, potahto, tomato, tomahto
Let’s call the whole thing off.”
There is no negotiating strategy.
The US idea of negotiation is to make demands, ultimately that Iran capitulate.
Negotiation requires give and take.
It’s not a stalemate: it’s a log jam.
What’s with the attempt to equivocate with Russia and Iran… Two completely different situations. If Russia wants to be left alone they can get out of Ukraine. FYI Where I live there are way more people flying Ukraine flags than trump stuff.
Russia’s not in Ukraine. They’re retaking Novorossiya.
Yikes, maybe they should be concentrating on the home front instead! https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/24/black-rain-toxic-air-and-bird-deaths-russian-black-sea-town-reels-from-refinery-strike-a92581
Then your neighbors in that liberal shithole you live in are morons like you. Russia is in Ukraine because the West has been growing like a cancer closer and closer to Russia’s borders for 35+ years. Call me a Putin lover or whatever TF you said last time, IDGAF.
With American missile bases and CIA bases on their border, to “strategically defeat Russia” ? The CIA HQ in Kyiv are in the same building as the SBU.
I was to understand the goal of negotiations is that everyone walks away with a net positive balance sheet.
Trump seems to demonstrate that negotiations are to remove every positive from the other party and beat them into submission if they balk.
Strictly one sided. If you offer anything else he considers it an insult and ‘nasty’, using that to make even more unreadonable demands.
Once exhausted, the opponent/victim will accept the first offer just to get out of the mind fuck. But countries have more options than small businessed in America.
Even though I agree with the gist of “your” statement there,I am going to start down voting things that are lazily copypasta from ChatGPT
Iran has been under sanctions for decades on/off. They have learned to live with what they have and get by. On the other hand, Europe and Asia are on the brink of a massive fuel crisis. People that think the US is isolated don’t understand that S&P 500 companies (and many more beyond that) depend on trade to keep their business afloat.
I keep an eye on flights from US to Europe as I go there a few times a year. Flights have gone from $800 to $1200 for economy to $2000 and climbing. That’s nearly double the price and it’s likely to go triple soon enough.
The winner of this whole thing will be the civilization that can get by with as little as possible. As little of fuel, consumer goods, food, etc. Which one do you think is “optimized” to get by with as little as possible and which one will howl to the moons of Jupiter as soon as things get expensive and tough?
And if Iran blows up desalination plants and oil goes to $300, who will howl the loudest? Where will millions of people be forced to relocate to when that happens?
But cheer up, the psychic says the global economy will crash but we’ll finally get to see aliens from space.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/economy/baba-vanga-2026-predictions-why-experts-fear-her-cash-crush-and-alien-contact-warning-might-be-real/ar-AA1OG2of
Not on/off. Never off. Just tighter & less tight.
Mostly Asia (and Africa). They need the fertilizer, many spots are out of oil, but they are also out of fuel.
Europe get surprisingly little of its fuel through Hormuz, and they have enough refining and petrochemical capacity to turn oil into fuels and product.
Rolling my eyes….
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/jet-fuel-shortage-flight-cancellations-easyjet-holiday-bookings-b2965662.html
United Airlines and Lufthansa are the latest airlines forced to mull raising air fares and scrapping flights following a dramatic surge in jet fuel prices, driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
United’s CEO announced the airline may need to raise fares by as much as 20 percent, while Lufthansa’s airline group announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights in bids to protect their airlines from the soaring cost of oil.
Only ~ 4% of Europe’s oil imports come through Hormuz.
The flight cancelations are cost/profit motivated — with current prices those flights don’t have enough return. Not being able to use air space over Russia, and now the Mid-East have also impacted price and competitive position.
One of the reasons jet fuel is so expensive is that it is the least taxed (for competitive reasons). So any increase in the price of oil translates into a bigger relative price increase.
Just saw a chart
America get 0.7 mbd through Hormuz
Europe gets 1.1 mbd through Hormuz
From my perspective, the U.S.–Iran situation looks chaotic if you just follow the headlines, but the sequence actually holds together when you step back. First came the strikes—targeting leadership, military assets, and parts of the nuclear infrastructure. That wasn’t about ending the problem outright; it was about shaping the environment. Then the U.S. shifted into a blockade, which is a very different kind of pressure. It’s slower, more controlled, and it hits Iran where it really matters—oil revenue and economic stability.
Much of the commentary has focused on President Donald Trump’s negotiating style—his deadlines, his threats, his reversals. This misses the point. Style is not strategy. Outcomes are. And the outcome, to date, is that Iran has been compelled back toward negotiations while publicly insisting it will not negotiate under pressure. That contradiction is not a sign of strength; it’s evidence of it eroding.
You can see that tension clearly in Iran’s latest proposal. Tehran has reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate—but only if nuclear discussions are pushed to a later phase, effectively putting the uranium issue on a separate timeline. That tells you everything about where the real leverage sits. Iran is trying to preserve its strongest bargaining chip for later.
When negotiations didn’t go anywhere, the U.S. didn’t pivot to something entirely new. It stayed on that pressure track, essentially saying: no relief unless you deal with the uranium first. It’s a hard line, but it’s consistent.
Where this starts to click for me is when you think about how Iran could actually comply with that demand. There’s no realistic scenario where Iran simply hands enriched uranium directly to the U.S. That’s politically impossible for them. So if the U.S. is serious about that outcome, there likely has to be a third party involved.
That’s where Russia comes in. It has the capability and the relationship to take custody of the material, which makes it one of the most viable off-ramps for de-escalation in Iran.
At the same time, Oman is clearly in the mix—but in a different role. Iran’s foreign minister was in Oman just a few days ago as part of an active diplomatic circuit before heading to Russia, underscoring Oman’s role as a mediator in this process. Oman helps move messages, structure talks, and keep channels open, but it can’t solve the uranium problem itself.
Another piece that’s easy to overlook is the regional dynamic. It’s not just the U.S. that doesn’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and most Gulf states share that concern, even if they differ on tactics. That adds another layer of pressure on Iran. It’s not negotiating in a vacuum; it’s operating in a region where very few actors are willing to accept a nuclear outcome.
Now don’t get me wrong—if Russia steps into this role, it’s not doing it for free. It likely factors into broader geopolitical positioning, potentially including Ukraine, even if not as a direct trade.
So when you see Iran’s foreign minister in Moscow, it doesn’t feel random. It feels like a natural next step. This doesn’t look accidental—it looks like the most workable path given the constraints.
There is no agreement that Iran could make that would satisfy Trump’s owner in Israel.
That’s a common view, but it assumes Israel’s position is absolute rather than outcome-driven.
Israel’s core objective has been consistent for years: prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon capability. How that’s achieved—military action vs. verified dismantlement—has always been secondary to the outcome itself. If there were a deal that credibly removed or neutralized Iran’s enriched uranium and constrained its ability to rebuild, that would address Israel’s primary concern.
The real issue isn’t that no deal could satisfy Israel—it’s that very few deals are credible enough. Israel has historically been skeptical because past agreements focused on delay and monitoring rather than irreversible constraints.
So the question becomes:
Is there a deal that actually eliminates breakout risk in a verifiable way?
If the answer is yes—especially one that removes or externalizes enriched uranium—then it’s much harder to argue that Israel would reject it outright. If the answer is no, then the skepticism makes more sense.
In other words, it’s less about “ownership” and more about whether the outcome materially changes Iran’s nuclear capability.
So, the Russians bring into the negotiations legitimacy weather Israel likes it or not.
Iraq was not seeking WMDs and Israel knew this. That did not stop Israel from demanding that Iraq be destroyed.
One could say the same about Libya and Syria.
Trump’s own CIA could find no evidence that Iran had not scrupulously complied with the JCPOA, which included stringent monitoring.
Israel is not so concerned with nuclear material but with the simple fact that Iran exists as a coherent state.
That argument mixes a few real points with some conclusions that don’t hold up under scrutiny.
First, Iraq: Israel struck Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 because it assessed Saddam was pursuing a nuclear capability. You can debate whether that assessment was right or premature, but the action was clearly tied to preventing a potential nuclear program, not destroying Iraq as a state. The later U.S. invasion in 2003 is a separate issue and not driven by Israel in the way you’re implying.
Libya is actually a counterexample. Gaddafi gave up his WMD programs, and there was no Israeli campaign to “destroy” Libya afterward. Syria is closer to Iraq—Israel struck a suspected reactor in 2007, again tied specifically to nuclear concerns.
On Iran and the JCPOA: it’s broadly accepted that Iran was technically compliant in the early years, but the criticism—especially from Israel—was that the deal left key capabilities intact and had sunset provisions. That’s a different argument than saying Iran violated it.
The claim that Israel’s objective is eliminating Iran as a coherent state is where this overreaches. There’s no consistent evidence for that. The pattern is much narrower:
You can disagree with how Israel pursues that goal, but the motivation is more specific than simply opposing Iran’s existence.
Israel did not destroy Iraq as a state in 1981 because it could not. It instead lobbied the United States to do its dirty work for it. For that matter, it was well-known in 2003 that the fairy tales of Iraqi WMDs were all lies. Israel assured us otherwise.
Israel also lobbied for the destruction of Libya.
Israel never wanted the JCPOA or any agreement with Iran in the first place.
Note how the pretexts given for the attack on Iran keep changing. That is because they are pretexts.
That argument strings together a number of claims, but it relies heavily on attributing unified intent and control to Israel in situations where the evidence is far more mixed and contested.
On Iraq: it’s true that Israel viewed Saddam as a major threat and opposed his potential nuclear capability. But the idea that Israel “lobbied the U.S. to do its dirty work” in 2003 oversimplifies a much broader set of drivers. The Iraq War decision was primarily shaped by U.S. intelligence assessments (flawed as they were), post-9/11 security thinking, and internal U.S. policy debates. Multiple investigations after the war showed the WMD intelligence failures were systemic—not the result of a single external actor directing U.S. policy. There’s no credible evidence that Israel drove that decision in the way you’re asserting.
On Libya: there’s little credible evidence that Israel drove the NATO intervention. That operation was largely tied to European and U.S. decisions during the Arab Spring, with a humanitarian framing around Benghazi. Again, you can debate that decision, but attributing it to Israeli lobbying isn’t supported by mainstream evidence.
On the JCPOA: you’re right that Israel strongly opposed it. But opposition to a deal isn’t the same as opposing any agreement. Israel’s position has consistently been that any deal must remove or permanently constrain Iran’s nuclear capability, not just delay it.
As for “changing pretexts”—policy justifications often evolve because different audiences emphasize different aspects of the same underlying concern: nuclear capability, regional security, and deterrence. That doesn’t automatically make them pretexts; it can reflect shifting priorities or messaging.
The consistent through-line remains narrower than what you’re suggesting:
concern over adversaries reaching a nuclear threshold or significantly expanding strategic threat capacity.
You can disagree with how Israel acts on that concern—but attributing a single, overarching motive across Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran stretches beyond what the evidence supports.
And to be direct, the way you’re framing these events suggests a prior conclusion about Israel’s intent that isn’t really being tested against the facts. It reads less like a neutral assessment and more like an interpretation shaped by that assumption. Disagreement is fine, but if the starting point is fixed, it becomes difficult to have a grounded discussion about what actually happened versus what’s being inferred.
At that point, there’s not much more to add—I don’t think this is a productive exchange if we’re not working from the same standard of evidence. We’re likely just going to disagree, and continuing to argue back and forth isn’t productive.
Funny, as Israel sure lobbied hard for the War On Iraq. Of course, once that war went pear-shaped, the Bush Administration took pains to distance Israel from it.
Otherwise, it sounds like you’re arguing from ChatGPT.
Ask a MAGA the reason for the Iran War and their canned response (straight from Fox)…”Democrats hate America”.
Some Great Comments here, Mish. Your work provokes thinking. I have grown to truly Love this Blog.
Remember when Trump said that Covid would magically disappear by Easter? Unfortunately, it takes these more complicated global issues for voters to realize that Trump is a buffoon and has no real skills other than making up nick names for his enemies.
It was, after all, a good time to tighten our fatty belts and cut back on so much driving. Stay home, pet the dog and love your Kids/Wives/Partners/Parents/Grandparents and Neighbors. Show some love. FUCK TRUMP.
Any questions on why we are in this war??
Searching social media accounts
NYT…Under Trump, Green Card Seekers Face New Scrutiny for Views on IsraelIn guidance to immigration officers, the administration describes participating in pro-Palestinian protests and criticizing Israel as “overwhelmingly negative” factors.
Very clear that Israel is the only reason we are in this war
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/26/state-department-says-us-is-in-conflict-with-iran-at-the-request-of-israel/
At this point, I do not think Trump CARES about Nov. Otherwise, that “Legacy Preservation Instinct” will HAVE to kick in.
I agree.
He’s in his final term regardless so doesn’t matter what happens in November he will be gone in 2 years. Even before the war started it was very likely that at least one if not both houses were going to be lost due to tariffs.
This gave me a chuckle at least. Trump “negotiates” through unhinged and demented posts on Truth social.
Here is the question I have: Pundits, bloggers, news person, etc. etc. have been exclaiming for weeks now that ” in two weeks the shiat is going to hit the fan with regard to the consequences of the closing of the strait” Ok, multiple weeks have gone by and life here in the USA is going along as (somewhat) usual When does this “reckoning” come? Or does any really know and its all but dooms day guess work?
For Asian countries it hit a month or more ago. They’re working with shortened school weeks, travel restrictions etc. Jet fuel in the UK is limited. It took weeks for tankers in transit to reach their destinations. Now there’s less oil on the seas. Releases from strategic reserves have also cushioned the impact. That will end. It’ll be like 2021 when appliances were back ordered for a year.
It all moves at the speed of the tankers
The crunch for the US comes when the currently repositioning oil tankers are refilled at US ports and the US oil is sold at the world physical oil price
US consumers will have to match those prices
One way–25 days from Europe, up to 50 days from the Gulf
Disagree. Trump will under the guise of a national emergency prevent that from happening.
Trump is the one who, when the Strait of Hormuz closed, invited the world to come get their oil from the US!
How? By waving a magic wand and making refined petroleum products magically appear out of thin air?
The US normally exports betwen 4-5 million barrels per day of crude oil, primarily because it is light shale oil that cannot all be used in US refineries. (We import 6-7 mbpd of heavier crude for our refineries.) With the lure of high prices overseas, these oil exports will likely increase by another 1-2 mbpd. The downside is that it will increase prices for oil here in the US.
We also normally export between 4 and 8 mbpd of refined products. This could also increase by 1-2 mbpd, which will of course raise prices locally.
The good news is that we will not see the physical shortages of oil and refined products that are happening in the rest of the world. Just higher prices.
You’re jumping 2 steps ahead, first come domestic high prices, then comes export controls and then price controls
This end will play out as “MAN OF LA MANCHA” trump and his maga group….
This is what happens when you let a clown run the circus..
Merz said the war was inflicting extensive damage to the German economy through higher energy prices, but added that he wasn’t hopeful it would end quickly “because the Iranians seem to be stronger than we thought and the Americans don’t appear to have a convincing strategy for the negotiations.”
The EU has NO STRATEGY , RUSSIA HAS humiliated and burning a lot of EU cash.
The strategy for the EU would be to make good use of cheap Russian oil and gas. However, that strategy would against their silly green strategy.
not to mention their Russophobia.
Silly? To work toward being independent of oil and all the whack jobs they gotta deal with to get it?
Energy literally falls from the sky for free.
Also comes up from underground in the form of Geothermal too. With the added advantage of being online 24x7x365.
The US has a strategy, or at least a desired endgame, everyone knows it, but at the same time. this endgame cannot be spoken out loud.
At the command of Israel, the United States seeks to turn Iran into a failed state. Much like what was done to Iraq, Libya and Syria.
The difference between Vietnam and Iran is Trump knew how to get out of Vietnam.
Korea, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Germany, & Germany (2 WW’s).. Name all of the wars. ALL of those countries are STILL STANDING and defiant.
Nobody said that this was the US goal in all of its wars. However, it is abundantly obvious that this is the goal in the United States’ wars on behalf of Israel.
Trumpstien can’t form a strategy to get himself to the bathroom before he fills his pants. He is way way out of his depth in Iran.
He lost control of his bowels along with everything else quite some time ago. Numerous people have commented about how he shits himself while sitting at his desk and everyone has to smell the stench.
I saw a video of a news conference where he dropped one, and you could see the noses wrinkle as the stench spread. Apparently that one was worse than usual because they ended the press conference and ran the reportersout of the room.
“An Uneasy Stalemate in Iran”
Iraq 2003 – WMD Lie
Iran 2026 – WMD Lie
History Keeps Repeating
(‘Finishing Off – Iran’) Gen W. Clark 2001 (+ Gaza Genocide) For ‘Greater Israel’.!
Go back to both WW’s. Korea. Nam. NAME THEM ALL. ALL of them were Banker’s and MIC wars. MONEY.
Trump claims Iran is losing oil revenue. True! However, US is losing much more than Iran to pay for the armada for blockade of the strait. So, US is the net loser. At the end of this “excursion” the US will add $1 trillion to its outstanding debt with nothing to show for it. Good trading, Trump.
The American armada is woefully insufficient to keep up the blockade. They have to stay far away from Iran for fear of a missile attack. Being that far from the Strait means they have to try to police more water than they have the ability to do.
^^^^^ THIS
Well US finances are in a bizarre state where $1 trillion in debt won’t mean much to the public. The amont of US treasury debt held by the public is somewhere around $31 trillion, and even without this war the debt is going to further skyrocket over the next 10 years. So sadly, I don’t think the US public is ever going to really care much about the financial costs of this war. Sadly, debt just doesn’t seem to be a concern to the public. But they will care about $5 per gallon gas.
You’re right that the US can always borrow/create money to throw at something, but all the money in the world can’t create enough ships and men NOW to board and seize all Iranian tankers.
At some point, that debt creates five dollar gas.
The US is at the point in the debt spiral that overspending starts to show up faster and faster in the inflation numbers.
This is just imy opinion.
Oil wells and oil revenue don’t matter when you’re life is on the line.
Iran has nothing to lose.
But the US, this is not existential.
It literally matters nothing to 80% of Americans.
As long as Trump does not himself personally suffer, it is all a small price to pay to keep his extracurricular activities out of the news.
He’d nuke the Galapegos Islands seven days a week and twice on Sundays, just to avoid getting bitten by a lizard.
Things have reached the healthiest ‘equilibrium’ that is possible in the Iran theater. Now, both the US right and left can agree to sit back and wait and see who can wait the other out, Iran on Donald Trump. Make no mistake, it’s Iran vs Trump, not Iran vs USA. This is one man’s Folly, and it ain’t William Henry Seward’s, that one was much wiser.
What should Iran negotiate? It is a criminal war! The US must pay reparations to Iran for this crime for the next 100 years.
Iran could merely demand from Trump 1) a public apology and for 2) him to say publicly “Iran is better than the USA” and give in on everything else, and Trump’s ego would not allow him to make this excellent choice.
All of this economic calamity has absolutely no effect on him personally, and he doesn’t give a shit about anybody else. He has absolutely no motivation to take such a deal.
Were I to be consulted, Trump and his cabinet of toadies would be placed in irons and delivered over bodily to Iran.
We have been assured repeatedly that they are just itching to rise up, that they are rejoicing tat the murders of their children if that means they can finally get to start an Only Fans, so here at last is their chance.
The people of Iran surely will not tear the Trump crew to pieces with their bare hands or anything, right?
No more so than Americans would if they could get at them. They’re not staying on military basis for the amenities…