Trump wants Iran to say what’s on the table. The opposite is true as well.
Frustrated Efforts to Make Progress in Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran’s Leadership Divisions Frustrate Efforts to Make Progress in Talks
Another round of debate erupts in public between hard-liners and more moderate officials who want to negotiate with the U.S.
Quick Summary
- Internal tensions among Iranian leaders over U.S. talks are complicating President Trump’s efforts to secure a diplomatic win.
- Hard-liners, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are putting pressure on top officials who are more focused on the economy, making negotiations difficult.
- The absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who appears to be secluded, exacerbates divisions and leaves Iran without a final arbiter.
Tensions between Iranian leaders over talks with the U.S. spilled into the open this week, highlighting how difficult it will be for President Trump to secure the diplomatic win he wants to end the war.
The disagreements were apparent in the first round of talks earlier in April. Mediators said Iran became vague when pressed by the U.S. for specifics on issues it had said it was willing to discuss, people familiar with the matter said.
It’s now becoming clearer that there are deep divisions within the country’s leadership over how far to go to strike a deal with the Americans—a concern as mediators scramble to arrange a second round of talks after the U.S. and Iran abandoned a planned meeting midweek amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will go to Islamabad for talks with Iranian officials, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Friday on Fox News. Vice President JD Vance will be on standby to travel in case there is progress in the negotiations, she said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad Friday, but Iranian state media said no meeting was planned.
Tasnim, a news service affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused the U.S. of telling stories.
“There is basically no negotiation with the Americans at the moment, and Mr. Araghchi’s trip to Islamabad is not to negotiate with the Americans,” Tasnim said.
During the fighting, Iran’s leadership showed unity in its political messaging and maintained tight command and control over its armed forces. But that cohesion appears to be fraying as it turns to the task of securing sanctions relief by cutting a deal with the U.S., which likely will require making difficult concessions.
A tug of war is pitting newly empowered hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard—the paramilitary force tasked with defending the regime and running the war—and elsewhere in the political system against top officials who are more focused on repairing Iran’s battered economy.
Hard-line leaders in Iran are increasingly putting pressure on its representatives not to compromise. They have taken to the domestic press and social media to blast Iran’s top negotiators—parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi—for engaging in discussions about Iran’s nuclear program in the first round of talks.
Mahmoud Nabavian, an ultraconservative lawmaker who was part of the Iranian delegation in Pakistan, openly attacked the way Ghalibaf led the talks.
“In the Pakistan negotiations, we made a strategic mistake,” he told the Student News Network, an official news agency aligned with the hard-liners. “We should not have put the nuclear issue up for negotiation. By doing so, the enemy became bolder.”
Ahmad Vahidi, who leads the Revolutionary Guard, also has been opposed to compromising too much, people familiar with the matter said.
Differences within the Iranian government over how much to concede appear to be making it difficult for Iran to negotiate, analysts said.
The first round of talks went late into the night in Pakistan. At one point, Kushner stepped out to call Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who were about to watch a mixed martial arts fight in Miami, some of the people said. When he returned, the U.S. insisted that Iran agree to a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment, the people said. The talks ended later.
“The decision-making machine at the highest levels suffers from pause and hesitation,” said Mohamed Amersi, a Middle East expert on the Global Advisory Council of the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “The internal debate about what’s in Iran’s best interests delays the time it takes to reach a consensus.”
Iran’s political leadership, speaking in unison Friday, was quick to reject any division. “In Iran, there are no extremists or moderates,” Ghalibaf said. “We are all ‘Iranian’ and ‘revolutionary.’” Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian issued almost identical statements.
It’s hard to draw firm conclusions about the opaque inner workings of Iran’s leadership. The hard-line bluster could be aimed at getting the U.S. to back off its blockade of Iranian ports or make other concessions at the negotiating table.
“Different centers of power are trying to extract better concessions before any formal meeting,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security forces and an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “It is performing reluctance in order to increase leverage.”
Iran’s Armed Forces Command Threatens Response
In its latest live updates the Journal reports Iran’s Armed Forces Command Threatens Response if U.S. Blockade Continues
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the highest operational command center of Iran’s armed forces, issued a warning to the United States. It said if the “aggressor U.S. military” continues what it described as a blockade, looting and piracy in the region, it will face a response from Iran’s armed forces, according to the official news agency, IRNA.
“We are ready and determined, while monitoring enemy movements and behavior in the region,” the Iranian army said in a statement.
Separately, the spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Defense, Reza Talaei-Nik, said that the needs of the armed forces continue to be met and the production of equipment, weapons and ammunition hasn’t stopped. He added that the ministry maintains a strategic reserve for any circumstances.
How We Got Here
President Trump sided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hard-liners in the Administration, Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Ted Cruz, and other against the advice of JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Trump’s own military experts.
Netanyahu wanted war, presented a ridiculous plan to Trump on how easy it would be, and like a fool, Trump fell for it.
Pre-war, nuclear stockpiles were on the table. Obama’s agreement for Iran to enrich uranium for 15 years was on the table.
But the die was cast. Netanyahu pressed for war and got it.
In the initial phase of the war, Israel and the US killed the Iranian leaders who were willing to negotiate. Trump bragged about that.
And now Trump has to deal with hard-liners instead of the moderates the US was negotiating with ahead of the war.
A War of Choice
This was a war of choice, and an idiotic one. It was supposed to be over in a few days, then a few weeks.
Epic Fury started February 28, 2026.
Since then we have had a dozen pronouncements by Trump that the US won the war, was about to win the war, did win the war, would soon win the war, and the war was won.
The Current State of Affairs
The strait is closed, no oil is getting through.
Trump brags and complains about the strait being closed depending on what mood he is in. He demands Iran open the strait, says he doesn’t care if the strait is open, demand allies help him open the strait, and tells allies he does not want or need their help to open the strait.
Trump said he will triple up use of minesweepers even though 4 US minesweepers are headed to the scrap heap (literally), as I type. Trump removed them from the region, most likely because Iran would sink them. But they are also obsolete.
X is an amusing cesspool of commentary on who is winning the blockade wars, 5D thinking, oil priced in yuan, and who is winning because the other side is losing more.
Cheerleading aside, it will take years before all of the physical infrastructure damage is fixed. The politics of the region will never be the same.
The US is 100 percent certain to lose influence in the region. But the 5D thinkers are proclaiming the US will have some hold on China from this. It’s ridiculous.
Is there Any Point to the Peace Talks?
Actually yes. As long as there are talks, the war is on hold.
If war starts again with Trump’s threats to “smash Iran back to the stone age” or “end Iran’s civilization”, Iran is sure to attack all the desalinization plants in the region.
The US wants to know what Iran will put on the table. But that’s damn one-sided. What is the US willing to put on the table?
Why should Iran believe anything the US says? How can there be any trust when dealing with the world’s biggest liar?
If Iran gave up its nuclear stockpile, it would have no leverage. So why should Iran agree to give it up? What believable offering will Trump put on the table in return?
Would Anything Surprise Me Here?
No.
Trump could be goaded into a ground war. That’s what Israel wants. So for that reason alone we cannot rule it out. A desperate Trump seeking to influence elections is also possible.
Some suggest Hegseth’s military purge is leading to that outcome. It’s possible.
It’s possible there is a deal in three weeks. It’s possible a deal takes 10 months or longer.
The lack of trust that lends itself to some more extreme actions. But arguably the most likely scenario is a long dawn out negotiation affair.
Historical Flashback
The US and North Vietnam argued over the shape of the negotiation table for approximately ten weeks, spanning from November 1968 to mid-January 1969, in a dispute often called the “battle of the tables”.
The argument involved intense haggling over whether the table should be square, circular, or rectangular, reflecting political struggles over seating and recognition.
- Timeline: The dispute began shortly after negotiations started in Paris in 1968 and continued until a compromise was reached in mid-January 1969.
- The Issue: North Vietnam wanted a round table to show equality among the parties, while the U.S. and South Vietnam wanted a four-sided table to distinguish between the two sides.
- The Solution: A compromise was reached involving a large round table with no sides, accommodating four smaller, separate tables for the different delegations.
Who Is Negotiating Now?
Iran does not want Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner. Why should they?
Negotiations were underway then Trump decided to start the war.
It would not surprise me, and indeed it is my expectation that a battle this time will not be over the shape of the table but rather who gets to sit at the table.
Conclusion
As you can see, I have all questions and no relevant answers other than Iran has no reason to trust Trump or these negotiations.
That simple fact suggests there will not be a quick permanent solution to this mess.
Moreover, Trump’s repeat threats to “end Iran’s civilization” and other war crimes are hardly conducive to peace talks. Trump’s erratic and disturbing threats will only harden negotiations.
Both sides think they have an advantage here. But only one side has elections to worry about.
Regardless, as long as both sides think they have an advantage, we will essentially arguing over the shape of the negotiation table.
Addendum
While writing this post, this came up.
Trump Truth Social: I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going is Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their “leadership.” Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
You cannot cancel a meeting that was never scheduled in the first place. As for cards:
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Trump’s latest justification for canceling the Kushner and Witkoff trip is absolutely hilarious: “Too much travelling, takes too long, too expensive. They weren’t meeting with the leader of the country. They were meeting with other people, and I said we’re just not going to do it.”
Too expensive!!! How much does it cost to bring three aircraft carriers to the Middle East, to shoot down hundreds of low cost drones with $2-4 million missiles, and to inflate the worldwide cost of fuel?
Kushner and Witkoff are just ‘emissaries’ who have proven they have no authority to agree to anything other than Iran’s complete surrender, but Trump expects them to meet with the leader of Iran? Maybe Trump should get on a plane out there.
Such a buffoon.
There’s an inflation train a comin that will get people’s attention! As well as many economies being adversely affected. And it’s not just oil. We wish that were all.
Sulfuric Acid is The Granddaddy of Industrial and Chemical Production and has tripled in price just this year. (Mostly in the last 2 months.) Not just from Middle East supplies (approx 1/3 of global production), but also refinery damages that will take years to fix. And that’s if there is no more! I.e. a big part of mined ore that is leached is leached with sulfuric acid. So all those mined resoures will have to go way up in price.
IMO it’s a *hit show awaiting the curtain to be pulled back here shortly. In effect I blieve this could well become a defacto Opec Embargo 2.0.
The Chief Pedophile of the United States is absolutely right to claim victory. His victory is the fact that Epstein has disappeared from the headlines. It’s like all his sordid crimes never happened. He can shit his pants like normal now. And this guy is your Lord and Savior? He is truly the anti Christ.
We don’t even know for sure if Mojtaba Khamenei is even alive. There are no sightings of him or even voice recordings. Just written proclamations that could have been written by anyone.
The internet blackout is now 57 days and counting leaving Irans population entirely in the dark about what’s going on.
The longer the ceasefire goes the more the US is going to be rearming. Sure, Iran might too but most of it’s factories and production are bombed and nothing is getting in resource wise. Meanwhile the US can start buying and building all those cheap Ukrainian drones that were effective vs the Iranian ones Russia bought.
It’s easy to see why the US doesn’t mind a few weeks time before resuming the bombings and why the US would be emboldened by the idea of pressing for ever increasing demands.
It’s also easy to see why the rest of the world wants this settled so that oil infrastructure can start and oil can flow.
It is wrong to say that Iran isn’t able to get supplies into the country. Ships can probably unload supplies from the Caspian Sea, and Iran can be resupplied through its many land borders. The blockade is inconvenient, but you can bet they are re-arming, getting more equipment and training from the Russians and Chinese, and doing everything possible to get ready for the next battle with the US.
“a few more weeks” will see aviation fuel and many olther key commodities in critical shortage (as in almost none available), same for aluminum, sulphuric acid, naptha, drug ingredients and a mile-long list of other critical things….while you just spout mindless Trump propaganda. UK and Europe and many other places already in beyond critical shortages of many key things, Asia even worse.
As time goes on, the USA will have to make more concessions than each previous day would have seen, so your comment is complete nonsense
It’s time to face the fact: this war is lost, Iran has won, deal with it. Winners: Russia and China and Iran, Losers: USA/Israel. As it should be for starting this terrorism campaign.
The idea that Iran will now surrender because oil storage is full is nonsense as well, there were periods lasting years during the Iraq-Iran War when Iran exported 0 oil, yet somehow they carried on regardless, without any allies at that time helping them. Today they have Russia and China supplying all they need, including x-band radars (no ‘stealth’ anymore), real-time satellite recon, air defense systems, MANPADs, components and spare parts. Iran has much more time than the USA, their clock ticks much much slower, and they have much more willpower than Am.ericans too, how long will Trump and America last when gas hits $5, $6, $7, $10/gal, and diesel even more.
Trump can babble bullshit all day long, facts are hard things he does not deal with.
Oil will not flow for many months or years even if the war ended today, Iran has heavily mined the Strait, and only the channel close to Iran will be open, if you pay the toll. Russian and Chinese ships will pay no tolls and move freely, others not so much.
Pull your head out of Trump’s ass.
Trump is drunk on war and power – and voters are recoilingThe US President can huff and he can puff, but he’s blowing his own house down
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trump-drunk-on-war-power-voters-recoiling-4374634
It seems the entire point of anything this administration does is to juice the markets and nothing more. That’s the whole point. Not ending the war, not peace, not stability, just chaos to juice markets.
I agree. Looting America seems to be the goal of the 2nd Trump administration. It started with his Meme coin and continues unabated. I imagine trillions will be looted by the time his term is up.
I imagine the next administration whomever that is will do the same.
New “alpha” male selected to be Secretary of the Navy. It will all be over in a couple of hours. Betas have been pushed aside. A true warrior is in command.
What happens in a few days with the War Powers vote? It seems like time is up – unless AIPAC’s employees in Congress agree to More War
They will.
Or Trump will ignore congress like Obama did in his attack on Libya. Claim that with no boots on the ground and no sustained fighting, we don’t have hostilities requiring termination. That even might be part of the reason for the current pause in bombings.
Taco will likely continue these falsehoods in order to manipulate markets where many investors have yet to catch on to his ongoing tactics.
When Trump says we have all the cards, the truth is…
We have a pair of dopes and they have a strait.
Mish, I am a long time reader for your Ecomomic posts that are excellent but turn you off when you post on politics. It is so obvious that you have “TDS’. Politico and MSNBC “Losing readers daily” do it better than you do. Stick to Economics where you are at the top of your game.
No, you have TDS. The only people who have TDS are supporters of Donald Trump. It is abnormal to like him. Normal people are repelled by him.
He points out the facts of the situation at hand, which does have an enormous implication on economics world wide! Wise up!
Mish, I am a long time reader for your Economic posts that are excellent AND your political posts are as excellent too. Keep up the great work and keep giving your readers what we want.
There, I just neutralized your opinion, it is curious that “simeon beer” has never posted comments here before and the post you choose to comment on is a political post. Do you see the irony of your complaint or is that too cerebral for you? Time to move on.
Let me help you with the economics of the situation. By attacking Iran, Trump has caused the near closure of the strait of Hormuz; something that most people previously considered an unthinkable possibility. This has resulted in the loss to the global economy of 10-15 million barrels per day of oil and refined products, 20% of global LNG, 30% of fertilizer, and over 20% of world urea, ammonia, sulfur, helium, methanol and aluminum. These shortages of key products are sending the world into a global recession. A recession that was not in the picture before Trump’s attack. Hope that helps.
All true. Plus a lot of dead Iranian civilians and more Americans than is being admitted. On the plus side, many of our “allies” are being cured of the belief that the US can defend them.
Saying something is “TDS” is simply an argument by thought terminating cliche.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought-terminating_clich%C3%A9
^ another delusional Trump supporter
Iran never said they were sending negotiators to Pakistan. They said they were sending an envoy to discuss the situation with Pakistani officials. They also said they have no plans to negotiate until the US ends their blockade and Israel stops fighting in Lebanon.
Trump is so desperate for a deal that he reacted to this situation and spent the last few days talking up the lie that he has all the cards and Iran “wants” to negotiate. He had Kushner and Witcoff ready to go on a moments notice if Iran gave any sign that they were ready to talk.
Then, when he found out Iran’s envoy had left Pakistan and had no intention of negotiating, he called Fox News to tell them he “changed his mind and called off the talks.”
Hilarious!
Exactly right. Trump told the media last week that JD Vance had already left for Pakistan to meet for talks, in order to pump up the markets. When Iran made it crystal clear they were not meeting with him, suddenly we find out he had never left at all. The next day, Trump tells the markets Witkoff and Kushner are headed to Iran, and again we find out much later that they never left and aren’t going either.
I fully expected the idiots in DC to order another attack on Iran last nite. I suspect Trump will do about as well negotiating with Iran as he has done with Ukraine…
One of the first responses to another attack on Iran will be to send a swarm of drones to blow numerous holes in the Saudi East-West pipeline
The United States could end the War On Russia immediately, if it wished to.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/diplomatic-theater
These negotiations are not being conducted in good faith, so I continue to expect them to go nowhere. Trump keeps talking like a deal is just around the corner, but it is nonsense. The Iranians are going to absolutely nail down their pre-conditions before there are any further talks, they don’t want the US to again waste everyone’s time sending negotiators who have no power to agree to anything.
Trump has a naval blockade to prevent not only oil tankers from going anywhere, but also to prevent any ships from resupplying Iran with food, medicine, spare parts, etc. Iran views this as a violation of the ceasefire and has warned the US that it will close the Bab al-Mandab strait if the blockade continues.
Since they are so far apart on all the major issues, I expect the Bab strait to be closed by the Houthis in the next week. This will further intensify the conflict and definitely raise the price of oil.
Is there any actual evidence the Iranians are under any pressure at all to make a deal? Or is this a WMD-style figment of our intelligence services’s vivid imaginations?
Iran was no threat to the US at all. The only reason this war was started was because of Israeli pressure on Trump. The Iranians don’t trust the US. They have been burned before by having negotiators assassinated, being told by the US a deal was close and being bombed while waiting for the US response, and having the US come back and do more bombings later. The Iranians want to end that cycle by making the US pay a heavy price for starting this war.
Of course Iran would prefer to end the war, but they will not put themselves in a position where the US comes back and bombs them once a year.
This war will end in one of two ways. Either the US invades Iran with ground troops, starting a 10+ year war, or the US abandons the Middle East and declares victory. I’m hoping for the latter.
umm, Iran has long land with borders with friendly neighboring nations, and Russia keeps sending ships (Caspian Sea) and planes loaded with supplies to Iran…so they won’t lack for food, medical supples, spare parts etc. The railroad from China to Iran has been fully repaired and is back in operation.
The USA has intercepted 3 or 4 out of about 40+ Iranian ships, so maybe 2 to 5% of outbound Iran tankers. So some oil exports from Iran are reduced, but they still have pipelines, rail and truck routes, some energy exports will continue. If Iran needs money, China will provide it I am sure.
Iran can last years longer than America, whose time is about 2 more weeks before critical shortages of everything become so blatantly obvious that even delusional markets drunk on Trump hopium won’t be able to ignore the facts.