Trump wants Iran to say what’s on the table. The opposite is true as well.
Frustrated Efforts to Make Progress in Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran’s Leadership Divisions Frustrate Efforts to Make Progress in Talks
Another round of debate erupts in public between hard-liners and more moderate officials who want to negotiate with the U.S.
Quick Summary
- Internal tensions among Iranian leaders over U.S. talks are complicating President Trump’s efforts to secure a diplomatic win.
- Hard-liners, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are putting pressure on top officials who are more focused on the economy, making negotiations difficult.
- The absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who appears to be secluded, exacerbates divisions and leaves Iran without a final arbiter.
Tensions between Iranian leaders over talks with the U.S. spilled into the open this week, highlighting how difficult it will be for President Trump to secure the diplomatic win he wants to end the war.
The disagreements were apparent in the first round of talks earlier in April. Mediators said Iran became vague when pressed by the U.S. for specifics on issues it had said it was willing to discuss, people familiar with the matter said.
It’s now becoming clearer that there are deep divisions within the country’s leadership over how far to go to strike a deal with the Americans—a concern as mediators scramble to arrange a second round of talks after the U.S. and Iran abandoned a planned meeting midweek amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will go to Islamabad for talks with Iranian officials, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Friday on Fox News. Vice President JD Vance will be on standby to travel in case there is progress in the negotiations, she said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad Friday, but Iranian state media said no meeting was planned.
Tasnim, a news service affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused the U.S. of telling stories.
“There is basically no negotiation with the Americans at the moment, and Mr. Araghchi’s trip to Islamabad is not to negotiate with the Americans,” Tasnim said.
During the fighting, Iran’s leadership showed unity in its political messaging and maintained tight command and control over its armed forces. But that cohesion appears to be fraying as it turns to the task of securing sanctions relief by cutting a deal with the U.S., which likely will require making difficult concessions.
A tug of war is pitting newly empowered hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard—the paramilitary force tasked with defending the regime and running the war—and elsewhere in the political system against top officials who are more focused on repairing Iran’s battered economy.
Hard-line leaders in Iran are increasingly putting pressure on its representatives not to compromise. They have taken to the domestic press and social media to blast Iran’s top negotiators—parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi—for engaging in discussions about Iran’s nuclear program in the first round of talks.
Mahmoud Nabavian, an ultraconservative lawmaker who was part of the Iranian delegation in Pakistan, openly attacked the way Ghalibaf led the talks.
“In the Pakistan negotiations, we made a strategic mistake,” he told the Student News Network, an official news agency aligned with the hard-liners. “We should not have put the nuclear issue up for negotiation. By doing so, the enemy became bolder.”
Ahmad Vahidi, who leads the Revolutionary Guard, also has been opposed to compromising too much, people familiar with the matter said.
Differences within the Iranian government over how much to concede appear to be making it difficult for Iran to negotiate, analysts said.
The first round of talks went late into the night in Pakistan. At one point, Kushner stepped out to call Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who were about to watch a mixed martial arts fight in Miami, some of the people said. When he returned, the U.S. insisted that Iran agree to a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment, the people said. The talks ended later.
“The decision-making machine at the highest levels suffers from pause and hesitation,” said Mohamed Amersi, a Middle East expert on the Global Advisory Council of the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “The internal debate about what’s in Iran’s best interests delays the time it takes to reach a consensus.”
Iran’s political leadership, speaking in unison Friday, was quick to reject any division. “In Iran, there are no extremists or moderates,” Ghalibaf said. “We are all ‘Iranian’ and ‘revolutionary.’” Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian issued almost identical statements.
It’s hard to draw firm conclusions about the opaque inner workings of Iran’s leadership. The hard-line bluster could be aimed at getting the U.S. to back off its blockade of Iranian ports or make other concessions at the negotiating table.
“Different centers of power are trying to extract better concessions before any formal meeting,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security forces and an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “It is performing reluctance in order to increase leverage.”
Iran’s Armed Forces Command Threatens Response
In its latest live updates the Journal reports Iran’s Armed Forces Command Threatens Response if U.S. Blockade Continues
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the highest operational command center of Iran’s armed forces, issued a warning to the United States. It said if the “aggressor U.S. military” continues what it described as a blockade, looting and piracy in the region, it will face a response from Iran’s armed forces, according to the official news agency, IRNA.
“We are ready and determined, while monitoring enemy movements and behavior in the region,” the Iranian army said in a statement.
Separately, the spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Defense, Reza Talaei-Nik, said that the needs of the armed forces continue to be met and the production of equipment, weapons and ammunition hasn’t stopped. He added that the ministry maintains a strategic reserve for any circumstances.
How We Got Here
President Trump sided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hard-liners in the Administration, Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Ted Cruz, and other against the advice of JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Trump’s own military experts.
Netanyahu wanted war, presented a ridiculous plan to Trump on how easy it would be, and like a fool, Trump fell for it.
Pre-war, nuclear stockpiles were on the table. Obama’s agreement for Iran to enrich uranium for 15 years was on the table.
But the die was cast. Netanyahu pressed for war and got it.
In the initial phase of the war, Israel and the US killed the Iranian leaders who were willing to negotiate. Trump bragged about that.
And now Trump has to deal with hard-liners instead of the moderates the US was negotiating with ahead of the war.
A War of Choice
This was a war of choice, and an idiotic one. It was supposed to be over in a few days, then a few weeks.
Epic Fury started February 28, 2026.
Since then we have had a dozen pronouncements by Trump that the US won the war, was about to win the war, did win the war, would soon win the war, and the war was won.
The Current State of Affairs
The strait is closed, no oil is getting through.
Trump brags and complains about the strait being closed depending on what mood he is in. He demands Iran open the strait, says he doesn’t care if the strait is open, demand allies help him open the strait, and tells allies he does not want or need their help to open the strait.
Trump said he will triple up use of minesweepers even though 4 US minesweepers are headed to the scrap heap (literally), as I type. Trump removed them from the region, most likely because Iran would sink them. But they are also obsolete.
X is an amusing cesspool of commentary on who is winning the blockade wars, 5D thinking, oil priced in yuan, and who is winning because the other side is losing more.
Cheerleading aside, it will take years before all of the physical infrastructure damage is fixed. The politics of the region will never be the same.
The US is 100 percent certain to lose influence in the region. But the 5D thinkers are proclaiming the US will have some hold on China from this. It’s ridiculous.
Is there Any Point to the Peace Talks?
Actually yes. As long as there are talks, the war is on hold.
If war starts again with Trump’s threats to “smash Iran back to the stone age” or “end Iran’s civilization”, Iran is sure to attack all the desalinization plants in the region.
The US wants to know what Iran will put on the table. But that’s damn one-sided. What is the US willing to put on the table?
Why should Iran believe anything the US says? How can there be any trust when dealing with the world’s biggest liar?
If Iran gave up its nuclear stockpile, it would have no leverage. So why should Iran agree to give it up? What believable offering will Trump put on the table in return?
Would Anything Surprise Me Here?
No.
Trump could be goaded into a ground war. That’s what Israel wants. So for that reason alone we cannot rule it out. A desperate Trump seeking to influence elections is also possible.
Some suggest Hegseth’s military purge is leading to that outcome. It’s possible.
It’s possible there is a deal in three weeks. It’s possible a deal takes 10 months or longer.
The lack of trust that lends itself to some more extreme actions. But arguably the most likely scenario is a long dawn out negotiation affair.
Historical Flashback
The US and North Vietnam argued over the shape of the negotiation table for approximately ten weeks, spanning from November 1968 to mid-January 1969, in a dispute often called the “battle of the tables”.
The argument involved intense haggling over whether the table should be square, circular, or rectangular, reflecting political struggles over seating and recognition.
- Timeline: The dispute began shortly after negotiations started in Paris in 1968 and continued until a compromise was reached in mid-January 1969.
- The Issue: North Vietnam wanted a round table to show equality among the parties, while the U.S. and South Vietnam wanted a four-sided table to distinguish between the two sides.
- The Solution: A compromise was reached involving a large round table with no sides, accommodating four smaller, separate tables for the different delegations.
Who Is Negotiating Now?
Iran does not want Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner. Why should they?
Negotiations were underway then Trump decided to start the war.
It would not surprise me, and indeed it is my expectation that a battle this time will not be over the shape of the table but rather who gets to sit at the table.
Conclusion
As you can see, I have all questions and no relevant answers other than Iran has no reason to trust Trump or these negotiations.
That simple fact suggests there will not be a quick permanent solution to this mess.
Moreover, Trump’s repeat threats to “end Iran’s civilization” and other war crimes are hardly conducive to peace talks. Trump’s erratic and disturbing threats will only harden negotiations.
Both sides think they have an advantage here. But only one side has elections to worry about.
Regardless, as long as both sides think they have an advantage, we are essentially arguing over the shape of the negotiation table.
Addendum
While writing this post, this came up.
Trump Truth Social: I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going is Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their “leadership.” Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
You cannot cancel a meeting that was never scheduled in the first place. As for cards:
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Did the US Decommission Minesweepers?
Yes, per Navy Times: The U.S. Navy decommissioned four of its last specialized Avenger-class minesweepers stationed in the Middle East between 2025 and early 2026.
These aging vessels (USS Devastator, Dextrous, Gladiator, and Sentry) were removed from service and sent for disposal, shifting to Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) equipped with drones for mine-countermeasure operations.
April 20, 2026: What Does CFR’s Brad Setser Say About Petrodollar Myth and Reality?
“The glory days of the petrodollar are over,” says Brad Setser CFR fellow.
Probably not. They’re a theocracy run by an insane asylum.
Parley would continue out of basic decorum. As the IRGC evolves back to it’s natural state of various warring factions, there really is no viable gov to represent Iranian policy or interests yet. Whack A Mole target strikes and rearming prevention will continue as long our resolve remains.
Great commentary. It is almost incredulous that suitable analytical commentary is hard to find in the media. Mainstream or fringe, left or right.. It seems only independents can now think independently.
It doesn’t matter how terrible Iran’s rulers are they are brutal, but so are many other countries.
The reality is that the US is in no position to change things. So far they have screwed much of the world’s economy. Screwed the Gulf states. And shown to Iran that the power they knew they had is highly effective.
There is no win here for the US, or anybody. It is losses all round.
War is bad. Sometimes it is genuinely necessary to use military force. But most of the time the results are worse.
The Vietnamese dragged out the table negotiations and the entire process because it was in their interest to do so. The US public didn’t want the war, and the stress was unbelievable for the Nixon administration. Nixon bombed everything in sight and pontificated “peace with honor”. In the end, there was no honor, congress cut the funding and the US military, tail tucked, ran for their lives. Maybe this war will end the same way, I hope so.
Even more amazing is that Nixon now looks like a Saint in comparison to our current President
The theological war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also stops the supply of fertilizer and urea to the rice crops in India, Thailand, Vietnam and other nations which feed 3 billion people.
This comes at a critical point in the planting and growth season. Estimates are that global rice production will fall up to 30% due to the unavailability of fertilizer, increased fuel costs and potential drought. How many people will loose access to food and die?
Millions? Tens of Millions? Hundreds of millions?
But it is not that simple as many forces are swirling in the global food chain as a result of the US ~ Israeli attack on Iran and indirectly, its global neighbors.
The exception first: Exporters of rice in India are faced with a temporary surplus of Basmati Rice and low prices because shipments to Western-Asia have been disrupted by the war. This sequentially disrupts cashflow to the farming sector in India just as costs are rising:
https://www.agtechnavigator.com/Article/2026/03/18/iran-war-freight-surge-and-container-shortages-disrupt-indias-basmati-shipments-to-the-middle-east/
Right when Rice prices are rising in Thailand and Vietnam causing farmers to decrease plantings as well:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/rice-prices-in-asia-soar-as-iran-war-fallout-threatens-supply/articleshow/130383423.cms
Here is the US, food production costs are rising precipitously. Farmers that did not hedge or purchase forward fuel and fertilizers for the 2026 season are being hit with 25-35% increases in costs. Add the unavailability of farm laborers and the outcome is simple: Less food ~ Higher costs!
Now the real twist comes… The present cooler Pacific Ocean oscillation is about to shift to a strong warm El Nino situation:
https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2026/04/25/forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops-as-iran-war-bites.html
US corn and Soy production looks expensive but with good yields that will be threatened by wet harvest conditions.
Australian canola production is something I am directly familiar with and the crop is threatened by drought and the death of billions of honeybees that fertilize the crop. Australia was the only continent without the bee deadly Varroa Mite ~ which has decimated honeybees on a global basis. Now it has hit Australian pollinators hard. Without pollination there is simply no seed, no oil.
A friend in the pollinator business in northern Victoria has lost 80% of his bees. His peers are facing similar losses.
Do not kid yourself, food prices are rising globally, and fast!
Sorry for the long post but methinks it is worth all of our contemplation…
They have too many people anyway.
Wait until people realize the changing climate is moving the rice growing region, threatening business as usual once all the other problems are addressed as rice has a harder time holding its current growing region.
Quick Summary:
– Internal tensions among Iranian leaders over U.S. talks are complicating President Trump’s efforts to secure a diplomatic win. > No it’s not at all. Trump has stated his objectives and they have not changed a bit. “Full Capitulation” and at no time has he wavered on this. The strife amongst the leaders, or pretend leaders if you will, are how to bring that home to there people and sell it. This is the only issue right now, and it will remain the only issue until it’s resolved with “Full Capitulation.
-Hard-liners, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are putting pressure on top officials who are more focused on the economy, making negotiations difficult. > You have those that have accepted defeat and do not prefer complete annihilation, over a peace plan. Then you have the hardliners that do not want to give up their power and control over its people. Once they do, they fear they will never capture them back, willingly. This means thy lose there power and control forever, and that’s not sitting very well with them at all…
– The absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who appears to be secluded, exacerbates divisions and leaves Iran without a final arbiter. > They have no current leadership, but rather a vacuum, and it’s filled with discontent over the fate they are inevitably going to face. They are in a literal quagmire of sorts, with no way to win or get what they wish to have back. It’s over, but they just have not accepted this simple fact. The old guard is done, and will be removed forever at some point soon. Either by force or there own people just doing do. They are more together and in better shape than the fools that think, or want to believe, that they are still in charge. They are not by any stretch…
– Tensions between Iranian leaders over talks with the U.S. spilled into the open this week, highlighting how difficult it will be for President Trump to secure the diplomatic win he wants to end the war. > Not really, Trump could end this all today, but is choosing not too. He wants them to clean up the mess, and more destruction will just make it that much harder. Iran is exactly where they are by choice. They continue to push the envelope, and get buried each and every time. This will continue until they are all gone, or have capitulated, whichever comes first…
>> The strait is closed, despite foolish stories to the contrary. Any ships that pass through, are being waved through by the U.S. and No Ships have or will get through without it. The things needing to be done, are happening outside of the strait and in international waters, and with little to no way to stop them. America is fully in control and in charge at this moment in time, and that’s not changing until “Total Capitulation” period, end of story!!!
“Mission Accomplished”! We have already won, like no one has ever seen before. Booyah! USA! Iran has already surrendered, twice, and they don’t even know it.
Not yet, and don’t be so hasty. We win when Iran Capitulates, or the leaders get overthrown by the people. The only people that want to keep fighting is the current leadership, and those in control. They don’t want to relinquish their Power & Control, because they know it will be gone forever.
The people want peace, and are tired of the life they are being forced to live and die under via dictatorship. They will get their way eventually, it’s just how much further damage Iran is willing to get for its Country and more importantly it’s people, before it’s game over anyway for them.
If they capitulate now, they have a chance to get some power back if they play nice. They will never be able to rule over everyone like they did before, but they could hold levers of power along with some others. So they keep a stake in the ground by bowing out now, and living to fight another day perhaps.
Where do you get this shit? Yeah, they’ll be welcoming us with flowers. Heard that before. The U of Maryland released polling data from Iran in May of 2025 that showed a majority wanting Islamic ethics to continue to influence law and politics in Iran. After two Israeli/American sneak attacks you think the people have turned against their government? That makes no sense and flies in the face of experience. Look at US opinion after 9-11. Americans put aside differences and were united. Same thing in Iran now. They’ve had massive demonstrations in support of their government. They will not capitulate and there’s nothing the U.S. can do – short of nukes – to change that. Their missiles and factories are deep inside mountains of granite. They have a million man army with more joining. Their mountainous topography makes a land invasion impossible. You think after losing to the Taliban we can defeat and somehow subdue Iran – a huge mountainous country of 93 million? That’s crazy.
Yes, the point is to give a timing call to those insider traders in Congress and the Senate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNq8TjkMeSc
Robert Barnes, who absolutely knows his stuff, lays it out on The Duran, pretty bad how bleak the reality is, Trump is senile and bat-shit crazy, and that is straight from inside sources.
Don’t even bother to question any of it, he is inside the machine, knows all the players, has the best sources, actually talks to these people daily, you may not like what he says, but I don’t doubt a word he says here
Especially when he says the only demographic group that still supports Israel is Republicans over 60.
I need to sincerely apologize to cans of soup everywhere for comparing their IQ to Trump supporters, I am truly sorry guys, my bad
Just admit he lied about everything and fooled you, it’s the truth, isn’t it? You meant well, maybe, but politicians always lie, don’t they?
Trump is so incompetent he makes Kamala Harris look like a genius, and that is saying something. Sure she probably would have started WWIII with Russia and China and attacked Iran, but is that any different from where Trump is going?.
As they say, no matter who you vote for in America, you get John McCain, and that IS the fault of Americans, who buy into the propaganda that leads to that outcome.
If Iran wants to negotiate directly, it would negotiate with Netanyahu through Fox News as spokesperson.
The US team of dual citizens and a name changing VP are simply pawns…
President Netanyahu will go down in history as the worst US President in history, right below 2nd place Donald Trump.
+100
😉
You’re joking – but this is a serious point. What is the point of Iran negotiating with the US if they can’t commit on behalf of Israel as well.
Why would Iran or ANY country trust a treaty with the USA? Have we ever upheld our end of a treaty when it wasn’t in our interest, starting with treaties with native tribes. Our treaties are like this “This is what you will do or we’ll kill you, this is what we’ll do, until we don’t.”
This has always been a shameful and dishonest government and always will be, always untrustworthy and sometimes even worse.
Because if they don’t agree, then we keep tightening the economic noose.
Interesting how China and Iran (among others) have developed numerous routes between their countries that don’t go through the Gulf of Oman, and thus are unaffected by the blockade.
https://chinabeyondthewall.org/war-on-iran-reshapes-the-war-of-connectivity-corridors/
Once in international waters, they have us sitting and awaiting for them to pass on by. Then we simply board the vessel, and take control of it. It’s actually a lot easier to do so this way ironically… but either way the ships are going nowhere unless we allow for it to occur, and right now we don’t choose to, so they won’t and don’t.
“we” – another American addicted to watching football and Fox.
I played and I watch Football, and it’s a great team sport. I don’t watch Fox, or any of the news channels. They are mostly just rambling “Talking Points”
If you had read the article you would know, among other things, that there is now a new rail service from China to Iran that arrives in Tehran a lot faster than any ship could
Old news if you’re talking about the corridor that relies on existing rail infrastructure across multiple countries. That started in 2016 if I’m correct.
No, there is not a single, newly built, dedicated railway line running directly from China to Iran. I am not so sure they have even spoken about it, but it’s possible I suppose, as there is one built already as I pointed out. Not a direct route obviously, but it eventually gets there.
More information about the railway can be found here: https://www.eurasiantimes.com/first-freight-train-from-china-wheels-into-iran/
This railway makes the journey from China to Iran by land at around 1/3 the time it takes to go by ship. It can be (and likely is already) used to send Iranian oil to China and to send Chinese weapons and supplies to Iran.
Interesting. I had not read this happened. TY for the link. My only issue with this is potentially a big one. You can’t suck all the water out of the ocean to prevent tankers, but railways can be knocked out of service extremely easily, and not so easily repaired and functioning again quickly.
Can’t carry much oil!
Piracy?
How gentile.
😉
It happens when necessary. If they were not where they were not supposed to be, it’s a non-issue, and nothing would have happened.
Sometimes people have to choose their fate, and sometimes they don’t like the choices they made. Make better choices and you won’t have issues such as this one in the future.
Do you think the world is as stupid and forgetful as the American public? This will come back to bite us in the ass.
We were already getting bit in the A&#, and our President is making sure it stops Now! They can try again later, and maybe we take their teeth out next time, and the biting will have ended for good.
rump is the one doing the biting at least until his body man removes his teeth at night
He puts wooden ones in at night when home I heard…
Iran didn’t do anything to us and didn’t threaten us at all. Netanyahu finally found a president stupid enough to attack Iran.
“Death to America” has been frequently chanted in Iran.
It has been reported numerous times over the past decade, especially in speeches by Iranian leaders and during protests.
No worries, why would you want to worry about such a trivial few harmless words by a country working hard to obtain Nuclear Weapons?
Hey, I was just thinking, and maybe you already did, but what if they were to use them on the U.S. The chant and all, and by there leaders… Hmm…
It took nearly two years of intensive negotiations to reach the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
There are many other factors to discuss and reach agreements.
Almost certainly, we’ll see peace agreement after global stagflation.
It took 2 years because they let Iran participate in writing the details.
This is how the “negotiations” work under Trump:
And here is how Iran will respond: “GFY, Trump”
I’m totally with you, Mish. After getting burned twice, why should the Persians trust anything the United States government offers. I mean come on. You agree to a legitimate treaty with the US government, and honor all your obligations in that treaty, and then they just tear it up and bomb you whenever they fee like it. Why would any country with any brains trust the United States after this?!
We’re no longer good at making quality products or educating our young…. “But we can bomb the [heck] out of your country, all right! Especially if your country is full of brown people. Oh, we like that, don’t we? That’s our hobby! That’s our new job in the world, bombing brown people. Iraq, Panama, Grenada, Libya, you got some brown people in your country, tell them to watch [out] or we’ll [certainly] bomb them [too]!” — George Carlin, Jammin’ in New York (1992)
Yes, we should resume the war so we can see Israel get whacked much harder. Destroy their desalination plants. Knock their offshore gas fields offline. Hit Dimona. Make Ben Gurion unusable so they can’t get out.
We can only hope
You should see somebody about the delusions you appear to operate under.
We don’t wish to annihilate Iran, but rather come to a peaceful solution. The more the Countries infrastructure gets destroyed, the longer it will take to get them back on track. The Leadership is making these choices for themselves, and not for the people, but for their power and control to remain. They just have not accepted the simple fact that’s it’s already gone, and forever for them anyway.
Your generosity of spirit is noted. We don’t wish to bomb Iran. We just want to be greeted as liberators. Fight the war to end all wars. It will just take a surge. The Taliban will never retake Afghanistan. We don’t want to wait until Saddam fires off a mushroom cloud over an American city.
The U.S. desires only Peace with Iran. We don’t want them to blow us up with Nuclear Weapons, which they emphatically said they will immediately do when they have the ability to do so. So we didn’t blow them up, like they want to do to us, but rather blew up the ability for them to do so. I think we were a whole lot nicer than they were planning, and that’s total annihilation.
Please provide a link to the Iranian leader supposedly saying Iran will nuke America as soon as they can.
We already know Trump promised to eradicate Iran’s entire civilization.
Just look for “Death to America” and you will see what you’re looking for.
You can save a whole lot of time however, if you just read what they have shouted for several decades.
“Death” = End of Life
“To America” = Americans
This should be enough for your understanding…
There is no such link. Nor is there a link regarding Israel.
It’s all purposely mistranslated nonsense.
That’s what I thought, but always open to learning something new if I’m wrong
Well there was this…
Iran has declared “total war” on America, Europe and Israel, with the Islamic Republic looking to rapidly rebuild its nuclear capabilities.
The country’s president made the inflammatory remarks in an interview published by state media on Saturday as he warned Tehran was in a position to launch attacks on the West and on Israel.
No wonder Stu swears by it
Bullshit! This is purely a war of “Theological Aggression”. The “We” you speak of has progressively attacked, annihilated or destabilized Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran.
There has been no peace in the Middle East since Balfour and none is ever likely while Israel is invading its neighbors lands or destabilizing neighboring sovereign states under the delusions that they are “The Chosen Ones”.
The big problem with this aggression is that the world might unite against the US and Israel. The US can not defend Israel against China, Pakistan, India and Russia simultaneously.
Do not forget that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also blocks the fertilizer supply to India at a critical time in the rice crop. This threatens the food supply to 1.3 billion people in India and another .5 billion in neighboring countries.
Way to go ~ you war mongering and intolerant idiots!
Way to go ~ you war mongering and intolerant idiots!
I assume you speak of Iran here. Yes they won’t stop bombing, fighting, and prodding others to do so. They refuse to stop the internal bloodshed as well, as they continue to sacrifice their own Countries People as well. Then for more intolerance, they bomb and attack other Countries, just because they can, and wish too, as it’s just what they do…
Why finish destroying what Trump says was already totally destroyed? What kind of stupid madness is that?
tick-tock
we are causing far more harm to our “allies” that our “enemies” ever have
tick-tock
the clock is Iran’s friend
Here’s an article from a REAL expert, not the pap you armchair generals write.
Gatestone is a propagandistic right-wing MIC-connected think tank. John Bolton used to run that outfit, which should be all you need to know.
Is some point in the article that you wish to point out as inaccurate? Don’t criticize mainstream sources, criticize the content. But that would take IQ and with you in the lower half of the bell curve, difficult to do. I understand and feel sorry for the disability your parents imposed on you.
You are assuming he deemed the rag worthy of a critique. I provided one. Did they discuss how Iran rebuilt their military in eight months so we could have the privilege of obliterating it twice in eight months?
There, I have given you an opportunity to avoid the issue and instead insult my intelligence like you did the last guy who engaged.
>Google person
>not a military expert, or even a vet
Treating rodeo clowns like experts might be part of how we got here, methinks.
This ^^^. Legit Commentary on what is REALLY going on.
Is Trump in 4D, 5D, or the newly invented 6D phase of the chess match?
That little story there is like saying the Japanese changed everything with their surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, and it’s going to lead to victory. Yes, Trump has done things differently, but, we have not “won” anything yet. We might… and we might not.
Then you should hold your criticism.
If Trump has proven one thing, it’s that criticism of him should not be held back. Have you learned nothing?
ODDS ARE YOU LOSE MORE THAN YOUR ASS , in Iran
Hahahahahahaha
Donald J Trump has entered the chat ^
The greatest Stable Genius in the history of stable genuising, this is truly 21-D underwater backward upside down blind-folded chess moves going on here
Jojo man, c’mon dude, really?
I stopped reading at: “ in June 2025 then again in February 2026, Iran’s core military infrastructure was almost totally obliterated”
Pray tell, how do we obliterate their military once, then again just eight short months later? I am confident we can document the remarkable 8 month rebuilding of their military might?
I wish you could see the bias with your own eyes.
The only thing that is 100% certain is death and taxes. The naval blockade is in effect a noose tightening around the Iranian regime’s neck. The regime at this point is IRGC, a merry band of vicious and corrupt mafiosi. Tick tock, tick tock. When the Iranians have no where left to store oil from wells, what happens to the wells? They must be shut down. When a well is shut down, to use the scientific term, it is fucked. And so are the Iranians. Economic cascade. Your commentary and the cheer leading in the thread are completely oblivious to this. So sad.
More than True! IGRC is factored and not communicating. The Blitzkrieg hit them hard and the economic blockade even harder. Look for some fireworks soon; some pain in the markets….but ultimately this will end in a huge win for the US and the World.
American sailors are barely being fed. American ships are low on munitions. Their ability to maintain the half-assed blockade (the majority of Iranian tankers have been getting through) withers compared to Iran’s ability to disallow transit to their enemies. Iran can outlast the US, especially because the majority of Americans oppose this immoral war.
Lol ^
Let’s fuck everyone just to fuck the Iranians. Now do this with houses. If we burn down the whole neighborhood, you know what? That means Iran’s house burns! YAY!
They aren’t wusses like Americans, they can take the pain and sacrifice. Americans can’t take the pain and sacrifice of walking down a sidewalk without staring at their phones. It’s all relative, friend.
This is all spin. There is no objective evidence about Iran not knowing who is in charge. Note that all the current leaders have hard front-line experience fighting for the IRGC against Iraq with its US supplied chemical weapons. We can be sure the Iranian leadership has thoroughly discussed all permutations. That seems a lot smarter than Trump with his gut urges.
This is not about obliterated nuclear dust — in Oman they were on the verge of an agreement about nuclear enrichment. Israel wants to add Iran to the list of failed states in the neighborhood. That’s why there is so much confusion and dissembling about the goals of the war.
As for Iran, they have a clear 10 point plan, which Trump reportedly ripped up and threw in the waste basket: He just wants them to “capitulate” already.
“no one to negotiate with”
means
“no one is giving in to our demands”
The reason Trump has railed about NATO allies providing naval assets is because operational specialization within NATO means that several NATO allies have mine-sweepers, whereas the Americans focus on other types of operations.
However
again: The difference between Vietnam and Iran is Trump knew how to get out of Vietnam.
We should just tell the world we have bone spurs and leave.
We should:
That might just be “too woke” for Trump and his clown posse to accept
I am actually surprised that the Iranians have engaged in negotiations at all. Let’s pretend that Mojtaba Khamenei is actually in charge. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. But intelligence suggests that the following members of his family have been killed: father, wife, sister, brother-in-law, sister-in-law, and son. Other members of the Iranian leadership may have similar stories. Now if someone had done that to me and you asked me to then negotiate with them, my reaction would be to go through sham motions while fully searching for a way to extract extreme revenge. The US is beyond Iran’s reach, but the GCC are not. I expect Iran to do everything possible to end up with Iranian hegemony of the Middle East based on control of the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq might not ship oil, natural gas, fertilizer, aluminum, etc. for a very long time as Iran tries to completely destroy them. “Want to maintain US bases in your country? OK, no passage for you through the strait.” This will be the biggest economic story of the year, and maybe even of the decade.
Keep saying “Cease Fire”, deal is done….etc, et al. Look at the “Market response”.
and like last year, Keep saying “Tariff”, etc, et al. Look at the “Market response”.
“Markets” are now at all time highs, just like last year. (not to mention Oil).
It sounds like a WWE routine, alas, WWE, et al., makes money, regardless.
And that is the point.
Time to resume Iran’s butt kicking! And go get the uranium.
You’re in luck Jihad Jojo, the Tehran airport just re-opened! https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/tehran-airport-reopens-after-8-weeks-as-indirect-us-iran-talks-begin-in-islamabad/4218145/
Let us know when you get the uranium out, good luck!
The article you reference states that limited commercial flights are commencing but the article also states that this is occurring because of peace talks in Pakistan, WHICH IS NOT OCCURRING.
Regardless, Israel/USA should put an immediate stop to this reopening for a wide variety of reasons.
Sure, shut down Iran so Iran can shut down the world. Wave goodbye to your janitorial job, Jojo!
Get you rear back to Ireland, Mick.
Sounds like you better buy your ticket soon! You have only a limited window to fly into Iran, go get the uranium, and get out.
Are you sure he isn’t foolish enough to believe we will do a ground invasion for US President Netanyahu?
Hi JoJo welcome back! Let me repeat the same old question you hate to hear and refuse to answer:
How? Boots on the ground? Sky robot? Big magnet? Go on JoJo, we all can’t wait to hear.
Giant vacuum like the one in spaceballs?
Send in the goy army. They’re just cattle anyway. /s
I’ve said before – boots on the ground.
Once our soldiers are on the ground, 70% of the IRGC will throw down their weapons and at the same time, the oppressed populace will rise to take vengeance on many of them. So, killing two birds with one stone!
Yep! you got it JoJo. Stop and go assault with economic shutdown of Iran topples this Regime slowly but surely. That has been the “Plan” all along.
I wish I had thought of getting that uranium like Jojo did. Now I’m so jealous!
Grab a rifle and head out, hero!
How hard can it possibly be? Aren’t Iranians all a bunch of broke goat herding opium smokers??
Since when does one party get to decide the other party’s participants at a negotiation?
When they’ve effectively won and hold the cards that matter.
When the other party has already lost the war.
You get a gold star!
Wow, Trump Air Force One Vs a 8 yr old Organ Donation heart landing. Pilot stood up and said I AM.
https://youtube.com/shorts/Tz1D2WNxKMU?si=hldzZWmUNUNxJ6Vt
To shorten your post a bit Mish, the current situation is:
We have a ceasefire that doesn’t really exist since Israel is still attacking stuff. We have that ceasefire that doesn’t exist so we can all hold “talks” between no one, nobody, and the floorboards respectively. These talks are to prolong the existing non-existent ceasefire to stop the war. The war that also doesn’t exist outside of air strikes and missile lobbing.
Scratching your head yet? Too bad because that’s just scratching the surface!
See, we’re also using the non-existent talks to jawbone the oil market that was previously at historic lows while openly telling the kind of lies a literal child could suss out. Every weekend, the war is back on and talks are off; Every Monday, the talks are back on and the war is off.
Iran is fine with this because they can easily wait until Trump is absolutely trounced in the midterms, possibly hard enough to put impeaching him on the table if he keeps this act up. There’s absolutely no rush to waste their missile and drone stocks when the United States is busy making its kneecaps into decorative bowls without any outside pressure. Really if you ask me, the ideal for Iran is to drag this out as long as possible to finally end any illusions of American legitimacy in the middle east.
What does this mean for the economy? Permanently higher gas prices, mid to long term higher food prices as fertilizer dries up, and only heaven knows what else as trickle-downs continue to pile up. I’m shocked bonds haven’t snapped yet, but bonds are slow that way.
I would be shocked if something doesn’t snap economically by mid-summer that forces reconsideration.
I honestly bet Trump is out to lunch enough to have not thought that far. He’s between a rock and a hard place since he can’t back down but can’t invade either, so he’ll try to keep this going forever. Fake negotiations during the week, war on the weekend. It’s like having your cake and eating it too except the cake isn’t real and everyone is watching you fork air into your mouth.
experts have grossly under estimated the coming oil shortage, it will kill this war
By war did you mean “global economy?” Asking for a global economy.
That’s actually a great summary!
First Trump has to fix the enriched uranium that Iran enriched when Trump stupidly tore up the Obama agreement with nothing in place to stop enrichment.
“April 25, 2026
Updated 1:11 p.m. ET
NY Times
As President Trump struggles to negotiate or intimidate his way out of the war he began with Iran, he is confronting the complicated legacy of his decision, eight years ago, to cancel what he has called “a horrible, one-sided deal.”
That Obama-era agreement suffered from flaws and omissions. It would have expired after 15 years, leaving Iran free after 2030 to make as much nuclear fuel as it wanted. But once Mr. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, the Iranians went on an enrichment spree much sooner, leaving them closer to a bomb than ever before.
Now, Mr. Trump’s negotiators are dealing with the consequences of that decision, which he made over the objections of many of his national security advisers at the time. Underscoring the challenges, Mr. Trump abruptly called off on Saturday a round of nuclear talks with Iran in Pakistan.
Much recent attention has focused on Iran’s half-ton of uranium that has been enriched to a level just shy of what is typically used in atom bombs.”
It is Trump himself that helped Iran get enriched uranium.
If nothing else, it gives me a bit of hope that the Iranians will drone strike Jared, but I realize that’s a pretty remote possibility.
Funny, that. It’s always a “remote” possibility. LOL.
Who knows, a dispersed team of Iranian Americans or just patriotic Americans may already be in place coordinating a drone attack against trump, his family and the entire Cabinet. Which would be completely justified considering the sneak attack killing the Iranian heads of their government and their families.
There are dozens (too many to count actually) of foreign leaders that the “freedom and democracy” nation of the United States has installed (oftentimes with military/CIA operations) so that they comply with every thing the United States wants them to do. They’re called puppets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
The latest and greatest example was Ashraf Ghani, who “served as president of Afghanistan from September 29, 2014, until August 15, 2021, when he fled the country as the Taliban captured Kabul.”
He lasted about 15 minutes on his own after Biden pulled the troops out in a disastrous Saigon-like evacuation in 2021.
Ghani packed his suitcases full of millions of cash the U.S. gave him and flew off in a private plane just in time to avoid capture by the Taliban, who invaded his palace and sat in his office posing for press pictures shortly after he fled.
It was a pathetic waste of 20 years, thousands of lives and $2 trillion dollars. Mark my words, the United States is going to top that one with this disastrous Iran War that has barely just begun.
Apparently the United States, having failed to foment a coup in Iran, hasn’t killed enough leaders (or at least not the right ones) to wind up with a suitable puppet who will sign a “peace” deal that will require total capitulation and subservience to the United States. There is no “plan B” so what happens next will not be good.
Perhaps they’ll give in if we kill more school girls.
Very Satanyahu-ish.
Your “honesty in spelling” has reached elite skill levels
We should never have sided with bin Laden trying to repel the Russians when they invaded Afghanistan. Never would have had 911 or 20plus years of war.
Depends on your perspective. If the US is figuratively kicked in the nuts it may turn out to be a good thing for the world.
Trump’s latest justification for canceling the Kushner and Witkoff trip is absolutely hilarious: “Too much travelling, takes too long, too expensive. They weren’t meeting with the leader of the country. They were meeting with other people, and I said we’re just not going to do it.”
Too expensive!!! How much does it cost to bring three aircraft carriers to the Middle East, to shoot down hundreds of low cost drones with $2-4 million missiles, and to inflate the worldwide cost of fuel?
Kushner and Witkoff are just ‘emissaries’ who have proven they have no authority to agree to anything other than Iran’s complete surrender, but Trump expects them to meet with the leader of Iran? Maybe Trump should get on a plane out there.
Such a buffoon.
You’re naive on matters of war……..
There’s an inflation train a comin that will get people’s attention! As well as many economies being adversely affected. And it’s not just oil. We wish that were all.
Sulfuric Acid is The Granddaddy of Industrial and Chemical Production and has tripled in price just this year. (Mostly in the last 2 months.) Not just from Middle East supplies (approx 1/3 of global production), but also refinery damages that will take years to fix. And that’s if there is no more! I.e. a big part of mined ore that is leached is leached with sulfuric acid. So all those mined resoures will have to go way up in price.
IMO it’s a *hit show awaiting the curtain to be pulled back here shortly. In effect I blieve this could well become a defacto Opec Embargo 2.0.
Feel the way the shit clings to the air? The shit winds are blowing, and the shit hawks are in flight.
The *hit blizzard…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56G4c9FEvZQ
The Chief Pedophile of the United States is absolutely right to claim victory. His victory is the fact that Epstein has disappeared from the headlines. It’s like all his sordid crimes never happened. He can shit his pants like normal now. And this guy is your Lord and Savior? He is truly the anti Christ.
You misspelled “child rapist”
We don’t even know for sure if Mojtaba Khamenei is even alive. There are no sightings of him or even voice recordings. Just written proclamations that could have been written by anyone.
The internet blackout is now 57 days and counting leaving Irans population entirely in the dark about what’s going on.
The longer the ceasefire goes the more the US is going to be rearming. Sure, Iran might too but most of it’s factories and production are bombed and nothing is getting in resource wise. Meanwhile the US can start buying and building all those cheap Ukrainian drones that were effective vs the Iranian ones Russia bought.
It’s easy to see why the US doesn’t mind a few weeks time before resuming the bombings and why the US would be emboldened by the idea of pressing for ever increasing demands.
It’s also easy to see why the rest of the world wants this settled so that oil infrastructure can start and oil can flow.
It is wrong to say that Iran isn’t able to get supplies into the country. Ships can probably unload supplies from the Caspian Sea, and Iran can be resupplied through its many land borders. The blockade is inconvenient, but you can bet they are re-arming, getting more equipment and training from the Russians and Chinese, and doing everything possible to get ready for the next battle with the US.
I bet you can’t substantiate any of these claims!
How are they doing all this when they don’t have any money to pay for supplies from other countries? All their ports are blocked. The US isn’t even letting Chinese ships through. Their airspace is off limits and no planes are flying into or out of Iran. Russia needs all the drones it has for the Ukraine front. Meanwhile, Bessent is blocking Iran’s money flows. And we are monitoring everything that Iran is doing from planes and satellites.
The IRGC, police and government are not being paid. So they can’t even buy food. The IRGC can take the food from sellers but that isn’t going to endear them any further to the oppressed population.
So who is paying you for these foolish posts you insist on making?
“I bet you can’t substantiate any of these claims!”
While I prefer ridiculing your inane posts, just once I will respond to your numerous false statements with proof you don’t know what you are talking about, just so everyone can see how untruthful these posts are.
Western sources are constantly documenting and complaining about Iran re-arming and evading sanctions with help from Iran and China.
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-china-war-cooperation-support/33741900.html
https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-iran-war-is-highlighting-and-expanding-authoritarian-collaboration
”How are they doing all this when they don’t have any money to pay for supplies from other countries?”
Iran has money. Iranian oil sales have increased since the start of the war. The US removed restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil and Iran stepped up production and sales until the blockade. There were also many oil ships floating on the sea that didn’t dock because of the sanctions, which sold their oil. Many Iranian oil ships (at least 34 we know about) got through the blockade as well; Iran’s shadow fleet successfully transports millions of barrels through the Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. enforcement claims. https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-tankers-bypass-us-hormuz-blockade-910-million-oil-shadow-fleet-crisis/
Iran has been dealing with sanctions for years and, like Russia, has developed numerous ways of evading them. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/will-the-us-find-that-war-damage-and-economic-pain-cannot-bend-irans-resolve
“All their ports are blocked”
As I have said, they have ports in the Caspian Sea that are not affected by the blockade. https://borzou.substack.com/p/will-the-us-find-that-war-damage
Those ports are being used by Iran to circumvent the blockade. https://agriinsite.com/russia-ships-wheat-to-iran-from-caspian-ports-for-the-first-time-in-eight-years/
“The US isn’t even letting Chinese ships through“
As I have documented already, ships are getting through the blockade. In addition, Iran is getting supplies directly from China via freight train on new rail routes. https://chinabeyondthewall.org/war-on-iran-reshapes-the-war-of-connectivity-corridors/
“Their airspace is off limits and no planes are flying into or out of Iran.“
Completely untrue in every way. https://www.wionews.com/world/aviation-in-iran-getting-back-to-normal-flight-operations-resume-at-iran-s-largest-airport-1777113549437
“Russia needs all the drones it has for the Ukraine front”
Iran developed and builds their own drones, and had been selling them to Russia for the Ukraine war for years. They have also been buying them from Russia, including during the blockade (see also the cfr citation above).
https://zeenews.india.com/world/how-iran-turned-isolation-into-a-global-drone-power-3040067.html
“Bessent is blocking Iran’s money flows“
He is trying, but Iran is using crypto, Chinese currency and other tricks. Iran has always found ways to use international banks despite the sanctions. https://changeflow.com/govping/trade-sanctions/iran-war-reveals-sanctions-evasion-via-swiss-banks-2026-04-25
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/18/banking-giants-accused-links-iran-money-laundering/
“The IRGC, police and government are not being paid. So they can’t even buy food. The IRGC can take the food from sellers but that isn’t going to endear them any further to the oppressed population.“
The US is trying to starve the ordinary people in Iran, I agree with you that they want to commit this war crime. I’m sure food is more expensive, but Iran grows a lot of food itself. Iran insists it is able to get essentials at least today. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/525684/Despite-naval-blockade-no-problem-in-supplying-essential-goods
The people and the government are very resourceful.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/04/22/us-naval-blockade-has-little-impact-on-food-supply-iran-
I have seen no evidence that people are not being paid, but if it is true, that happens in war and I’m sure they will deal with it. Israelis and others who wanted this war insisted in February the regime would collapse instantly, that Iran would surrender as soon as the US brought an aircraft carrier to the Mideast. This is just repeated nonsense, this notion that Iran is on the verge of collapse. Wake me up when it actually happens.
“So who is paying you for these foolish posts you insist on making?”
I am not the psychopath who constantly pushes for and cheers the murder of innocent civilians.
That response was akin to Cadwalader Wishersham & Taft defending a porn addict. Good work. It won’t change his mind. But well argued.
Thanks. It will be the last time I do that. Of course, Jihad Jojo has access to the same information everyone else does, but apparently only looks at Israeli media, Fox News, and the like.
If it makes his rabid mouth foam more visible for those who can’t spot it that easily, his public service will have been well worth it.
BS! Totally specious sources. Sorry you wasted so much time putting that together, although, as I said, someone is paying for your posts here, so that likely doesn’t matter to you.
Saying someome is paid for their posts is a total abandonment of intellectualism. It’s like sticking your fingers in your ears, your tongue out, and making all those silly noises while twisting your thumbs about. You might as well just call everyone “Woke”
I just sent a fully documented response but got a “Awaiting for approval” response. Hopefully it will come through as I spent a lot of time going point by point through your post.
George Soros pays me for mine, so I bet he gets paid by the same globalist devil.
“a few more weeks” will see aviation fuel and many olther key commodities in critical shortage (as in almost none available), same for aluminum, sulphuric acid, naptha, drug ingredients and a mile-long list of other critical things….while you just spout mindless Trump propaganda. UK and Europe and many other places already in beyond critical shortages of many key things, Asia even worse.
As time goes on, the USA will have to make more concessions than each previous day would have seen, so your comment is complete nonsense
It’s time to face the fact: this war is lost, Iran has won, deal with it. Winners: Russia and China and Iran, Losers: USA/Israel. As it should be for starting this terrorism campaign.
The idea that Iran will now surrender because oil storage is full is nonsense as well, there were periods lasting years during the Iraq-Iran War when Iran exported 0 oil, yet somehow they carried on regardless, without any allies at that time helping them. Today they have Russia and China supplying all they need, including x-band radars (no ‘stealth’ anymore), real-time satellite recon, air defense systems, MANPADs, components and spare parts. Iran has much more time than the USA, their clock ticks much much slower, and they have much more willpower than Am.ericans too, how long will Trump and America last when gas hits $5, $6, $7, $10/gal, and diesel even more.
Trump can babble bullshit all day long, facts are hard things he does not deal with.
Oil will not flow for many months or years even if the war ended today, Iran has heavily mined the Strait, and only the channel close to Iran will be open, if you pay the toll. Russian and Chinese ships will pay no tolls and move freely, others not so much.
Pull your head out of Trump’s ass.
See this guy gets it. The exact situation we were winning so hard with in Ukraine is now the very same one we’re on the wrong side of here. It is easy and cheap for the allies of the invaded (in this case Iran instead of Ukraine) to send supplies that they were getting rid of anyway. Like with Ukraine, you have one superpower able to greviously wound the other for what is essentially no cost. Too bad we were too stupid to be on that train for long and decided to copy Russia and then some.
So who do you imagine builds things faster, Iran or the US? Be serious with your answer?
Ukraine is already offering 1000 drones a day if we invest (note I highly doubt they can do that but they claim they can). If Ukraine can build 1000 a day imagine how many the US can build in a day once we license the technology?
It’s clear drones are the future and the US will be able to build drones at a MUCH faster pace than Iran can. If Trump keeps kicking the cease fire for a few months the US can build a WHOLE lot of drone, way more than Iran can.
As someone with actual knowledge of this: it doesn’t matter because we need it now, not two years from now. Iran has a deep stockpile of missiles and drones, and America copying them doesn’t matter because one way attack drones don’t work for us in this conflict the way they work for Ukraine. This is their country, they are not invading and wandering around like Russia is. Iran has spent decades hardening their infrastructure for a ground invasion, drones are nothing to them. Oh and those bunker busters? We’ve used enough of them that we no longer think we can defend Taiwan from China (see source). What have we gotten from it?
Strategically nothing. The strait is closed, it has been closed since the start of the conflict, and it will continue to be closed. Ukraine can’t spare much more because they are locked into an ugly drawn out war for survival, and the fact that we’re crawling to them for help should tell anyone with an IQ over freezing how bad this is.
Now Tim I want you to rub your brain together real hard and ask yourself if you think this kind of horseplay is going to fly with China. You know, the country that supplies the parts and materials for the drones Russia and Ukraine are currently using. Think really hard on that and get back to me.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-complicates-contingency-plans-to-defend-taiwan-some-u-s-officials-say-4384f7c1
If that were true, then why was the US military stating, when the missiles were flying, that Iran’s launches were down by 90%?
At that time, as far as they knew, they were existentially fighting for their survival. In this situation, they should not have held anything back for an uncertain future.
All their factories and smelting plants have been bombed. They have no capability of replacing their missiles or drones. And the US is watching everything that is going on in Iran from the skies. Remember, we can supposedly read a license plate from spy satellites.
The launches are down because they do not need to be up anymore. The strait is closed and will continue to be, why waste ammo on doing more? This is a question nobody in Trump’s PR team can answer.
Instead they just point to “factories and smelting plants” because they don’t understand how easy drones are to make from parts they have in spades and can easily source from Russia and China. It is literally balsa wood, an engine, and cheap electronics mated to a warhead.
Your entire counter to this is “B-buh-buh trump!!! Trump sez!!!” Trump sez the strait is open, why don’t you go sailing to prove it Jojo?
You should continue to play military and strategy board games, so you learn something before posting, armchair General.
We have plenty of satellites but a lack of intelligence. Many of their factories are deep underground, some under granite. Bunker busters won’t cut it.
Initial Iran attack waves followed a similar pattern to last year : many drones / missiles (many of them older stock) forcing depletion of air defenses. Once defenses were atrited, those were followed by smaller but more effective strikes with newer hypersonic and cluster munitions. The strategy worked last June and again this time. But we on the other hand never seem to learn.
EVERY underground installation requires entrance and exit points. Plus ability to fill gas/diesel tanks. Plus means to pull in and exchange air.
Lead time on American weapons systems is measured in years. Lead time on Iranian weapon systems is measured in days. Iran can build thousands of drones in the time it takes us to procure a single tomahawk missile. It’s shameful that America prepared for Desert Storm 3 in spite of the clear as day example of actual modern warfare in Ukraine.
And Trump has purged all competent thinkers from the military, so there is little hope of our adapting anytime soon. It will fall on the next administration to actually modernize our military. Until then we are fighting a 2025 war with 25 year old tech and tactics
Ukraine produces about 600K drones a month and is on pace to hit over 7M for the entire year.
I bet China can build more drones than anyone, and hardly anyone could build drones without stuff from China.
It’s precious… using Ukraine as the example of how the larger military power is so dominant that it can’t be held off. See a contradiction in your thought process here, Tex?
Except you’re wrong. Russia had already started grievously wounding Ukraine militarily even in 2022 (see Azov surrender in Mariupol), wrecked much of the original Soviet era hardware and drained them of munitions, forcing the train of NATO resupply to begin. Ukraine had their moment territorially in fall 2022 and by summer 2023 a disaster was already unfolding for them with the failed summer counteroffensive. By 2024 the momentum was clearly swinging in Russia’s favor as they had bolstered their troop levels through mobilization of veteran reserves and strong voluntary recruitment figures. Success in the West has been measured by territory taken but it’s a different game. Russia kills 1000+ UKR soldiers every day, and has for a few years now. Casualties in the millions, but only a fraction of that on the Russian side.
I also don’t know what you’re referring to re: “supplies that they were getting rid of anyway”. There have been rumors of new air defense systems, advanced radars, etc. but that hardly seems surplus.
This is mostly lies.
Lol. Add innumeracy to your list of crimes.
“Mostly lies” are what we’ve been told. Russia is incompetent, Russia is running out of weapons and having to use chips from dishwashers for their missiles, Russia’s economy is falling apart, blah blah blah.
There’s a good chance Ukraine’s defensive front collapses at the same time as the economic chickens come home to roost from the Iran war. Won’t that be fun?!
The Russians have and are taking far more casualties than Ukraine. As for the weapons supplied – the US gave older weapons, many near or past end of useful life. The money congress approriated went largely to replace those weapons with new for our own inventory, at least to the extent that Trump has not already used them.
Nope! The Russian army has been deliberate in their strategy to avoid unnecessary casualties and continues to grow. Ukraine continually claimed Russia was throwing “meat assaults” at fortified positions but they understand the reality of being exposed to drone assaults and do not do that (aside from Prigozhin who I think was rightfully accused of being too aggressive by throwing away a lot of recruited convicts in attacks on Bakhmut).
How many videos of those meat assaults getting turned into mist would you need to recant that? I have plenty on hand.
Sorry, I don’t have a meatgrinder fetish.
You really need to put the crack pipe down.
1/3 of the money Congress appropriated was skimmed off by Kiev regime criminals like Zelenskyyy.
As other people have pointed out, you’re lying. American and NATO supply has mostly been Vietnam and 80s era surplus we have no use for, such as the cluster heads that helped delete battalions of Russians. And for killing “1000+ soldiers a day” (citation needed) let’s look at the facts (source below). According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia has lost ~325,000 men dead to Ukraine’s ~125-140k. That is more than double the losses, and my claim has a source, yours mysteriously doesn’t.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/27/us/politics/russia-ukraine-casualties.html
CSIS? What’s next – the Institute for the Study of War?
Media Zona run by Russian dissidents in Latvia has carefully kept a tally of Russian dead by analysis of social media, etc. They are anti-Russia but their tally is far lower than American propaganda.
Sure, you have a source.. a bad one. That outfit is MIC think tank central. Kissinger is just one of the notable alumni, and their funding comes from the U.S. government and several prominent defense contractors.
Don’t BS. We drained many of our stockpiles for Ukraine, and it was not useless equipment. Now they won’t even have an opportunity to receive Patriot interceptors because those go to Israel.
I spouted ZERO propaganda.
I cited 2 facts, their new leader has been absent since the start of the war and there is an internet blackout. You dispute those?
I’m also suggesting both sides are rearming. You think that’s not true? Now who do you think will be rearming faster, the US or Iran. Be serious in your answer.
Note: China and Russia may well send stuff to Iran but they aren’t doing it for free. They expect to be paid. Where will this money come from (toll money may come in the future but that’s not guaranteed or is it guaranteed to last)?
you say you dont support Trump, but you post his idiotic talking points
If the Supreme Leader in Iran is dead, they will appoint another, so what, it does not change the outcome of the war
Iran can re-arm way faster than the snail’s pace America can and are doing so, and they still have very large stocks from before the war they have not used yet of missiles and drones, America not so much – what is your point there, America cannot sustain a years long attrition war with Iran under present conditions, Iran can
Internet blackout is because Israel uses it to contact their agents in Iran and instruct them what to do, it wont affect the outcome of the war, except in Iran’s favor. See recent pictures of vast crowds marching in Iran waving flags, showing off missiles. People of Iran now support their Government more than ever, ‘rally-around-the-flag effect’, that may change after the war, but that is far beyond the timeline America has to sustain the war.
Russia and China take the long view, it is in their vital strategic interest that Iran does not fall, so even if they give Iran aid and never receive any payment (unlikely) it is still in their strong national interest to do so. This is not about accounting balance sheets, it is an existential war for Iran, Russia and China, many things are more important than just money. Again, what is your point?
Re-arming on both sides is not a symmetrical issue. The US has plenty of offensive weapons, but no military targets left to hit. It is the uber-expensive defensive missiles they are running low on, and because they buy and pay for Rolls-Royce missiles, they take forever to mass produce.
The Iranians don’t have effective defensive missiles, they want to build more offensive weapons that cause real problems for the US in this war. Those are cheap and easy to churn out, along with missile launchers.
Who rearms faster? It could very well be Iran, but it doesn’t matter. Iran has the stockpiles that count – the weapons that allow for leverage. The is no evidence that our standoff weapons have done great damage to Iran’s underground facilities (which includes factory complexes for drone/missile production). Meanwhile, we now lack interceptors to even try to effectively defend (not that Iron Dome and other defenses were really working that well).
who rearms faster?
look at production rates of the high-buck death-star systems the US uses
figure out how much of Iran’s offensive capability has not been destroyed
look at the availability and production rate of the low-tech missiles and drones Iran has
It’s not an obvious answer
Iran will be rearming faster than the US. No doubt about it.
We got plenty of oil and jet fuel here in the USA! I guess the EU better wind-up their toy warships and help open the Strait or else suffer.
I’ve got plenty of popcorn!
let the CIA or Russia give Iran a A bomb, let them set it off in the desert, USA and Israel will go home
Does it matter if he is? They have 100 million other people to choose from. If the Iranians managed to assassinate Donald Trump, would the United States, rollover and surrender?
The US would not of course.
But if their leader is dead then how can anyone in Iran negotiate anything? Anyone could be in charge or multiple factions. That’s Mish’s point. Its basically impossible to negotiate so the war will continue with a brief pause.
Except we know plenty about how the IRGC is set up after decades of studying it, which means we know that they are in control. This was something that was warned about before Trump began this because you cannot decapitate them. They can negotiate perfectly well, they just have no reason to.
The Iranian system is effective and resilient. The claim that no one is in charge is utter nonsense. Yes, there are differences of opinion, just like in the US. Trump knows who the Iranian leaders are, the problem is they don’t want to engage with him, in part because he and Netanyahu killed the last set of leaders who did. So Trump tries to seek out people in Iran who will engage with him. Then he finds out they don’t really have any authority.
Sheer incompetence, he killed all of the leaders who had a history of diplomacy with western countries. And now he is surprised that he can’t engage with anyone in Iran other than people who are not in power.
That is why I keep pointing out that Trump is just not very smart.
I don’t think Mish was making that point. The idea that Iran is deeply fragmented and we don’t have a deal because they are conflicted is a propagandistic refrain that’s been beaten to death this past month that has nothing to do with current reality. It’s clear there are people to negotiate with and we know who they are; we just refuse to accept that we’ve lost and now need to agree to negotiate on the basis of Iran’s 10 pt plan.
“no one to negotiate with” translates as “no one who will give Trump what he wants”
And “what Trump wants” translates to “what Netanyahu wants”.
Tim if all your assumptions are correct, what is the LONGEST possible time Iran can hold out before the US inevitable wins and gets what they want?
Trump is drunk on war and power – and voters are recoilingThe US President can huff and he can puff, but he’s blowing his own house down
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trump-drunk-on-war-power-voters-recoiling-4374634
It seems the entire point of anything this administration does is to juice the markets and nothing more. That’s the whole point. Not ending the war, not peace, not stability, just chaos to juice markets.
I agree. Looting America seems to be the goal of the 2nd Trump administration. It started with his Meme coin and continues unabated. I imagine trillions will be looted by the time his term is up.
I imagine the next administration whomever that is will do the same.
And to steadily inflame inflation, despite any rhetoric about improving affordability. Trump wants low interest rates and high inflation. It’s the formula that turns billionaires into trillionaires.
New “alpha” male selected to be Secretary of the Navy. It will all be over in a couple of hours. Betas have been pushed aside. A true warrior is in command.
Is he wearing a pencil skirt and carrying a stenographers’s pad?
What happens in a few days with the War Powers vote? It seems like time is up – unless AIPAC’s employees in Congress agree to More War
They will.
Or Trump will ignore congress like Obama did in his attack on Libya. Claim that with no boots on the ground and no sustained fighting, we don’t have hostilities requiring termination. That even might be part of the reason for the current pause in bombings.
The neocons are all alike.
Taco will likely continue these falsehoods in order to manipulate markets where many investors have yet to catch on to his ongoing tactics.
When Trump says we have all the cards, the truth is…
We have a pair of dopes and they have a strait.
Mish, I am a long time reader for your Ecomomic posts that are excellent but turn you off when you post on politics. It is so obvious that you have “TDS’. Politico and MSNBC “Losing readers daily” do it better than you do. Stick to Economics where you are at the top of your game.
No, you have TDS. The only people who have TDS are supporters of Donald Trump. It is abnormal to like him. Normal people are repelled by him.
He points out the facts of the situation at hand, which does have an enormous implication on economics world wide! Wise up!
Mish, I am a long time reader for your Economic posts that are excellent AND your political posts are as excellent too. Keep up the great work and keep giving your readers what we want.
There, I just neutralized your opinion, it is curious that “simeon beer” has never posted comments here before and the post you choose to comment on is a political post. Do you see the irony of your complaint or is that too cerebral for you? Time to move on.
Let me help you with the economics of the situation. By attacking Iran, Trump has caused the near closure of the strait of Hormuz; something that most people previously considered an unthinkable possibility. This has resulted in the loss to the global economy of 10-15 million barrels per day of oil and refined products, 20% of global LNG, 30% of fertilizer, and over 20% of world urea, ammonia, sulfur, helium, methanol and aluminum. These shortages of key products are sending the world into a global recession. A recession that was not in the picture before Trump’s attack. Hope that helps.
All true. Plus a lot of dead Iranian civilians and more Americans than is being admitted. On the plus side, many of our “allies” are being cured of the belief that the US can defend them.
including the intentional cold-blooded murder of 170 teenage girls offered to Zionist Moloch God Netanyahu clearly worships, plus parents and medical staff rushing to the scene as a bonus in “double tap”. Unforgivable. The military commander responsible for this action will re-incarnate as a cockroach. If he/she is lucky.
Still wondering what the Iranian response to this will be.
One thing is certain: it won’t be pleasant.
Jojo assures us the US can read a license plate from space, but double-tapping that school was an “accident”.
Saying something is “TDS” is simply an argument by thought terminating cliche.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought-terminating_clich%C3%A9
They have transcended MAGA and ordinary stupidity. They are the thought terminators!
John Connor, come with me if you want to think again!
^ another delusional Trump supporter
Buckle up boo boo, your moronic worldview is getting stomped flat before your teary eyes.
I want to second the Beer!!! Mish is feeding the same elite narrative of the media had predetermined before even the first shot was fired. To this end – I want to paraphrase the acid capitalist from a recent substack and youtube post. We all need to learn to think and not parrot.
‘Learn to follow the price. You have sold a story about this market and it’s wrong. The story is so wrong that it should make your blood boil. Not because the facts are false, but because the conclusions were written long before the first tanker tried to nose through the strait. Every front page, every column from the senior editors to the opinion desks from the transatlantic intelligentsia of the costal elites and the European sophisticates is telling you that Iran has the upper hand and Trump is a clown out of his depth. He is a reckless vulgar human being dragging us into another disaster. While the master chess champion Iranians hold every card as they sip tea in Tehran.
This is not journalism. My brothers and sisters this is a F…g echo chamber – it is not writing to find the truth; it is writing to correct the perceived injustice of an elite that doesn’t like today and its governance. They are attempting the same lines again until they harden into something that looks but does not smell like the actual facts. These morons expect, yea, they demand the United States bleed another 23 trillion dollars on defense so the others like Nato, can have a free magic carpet ride. These jokers, all the while sneering at the same people who have watched their wages go nowhere for decades. Pretending that the last 30 years of Chinese industrial expansion was a benign by product of globalization. Rather it was a system designed to dominate the middle class. …
If you had been following the media, you would have been fighting the tape. The same tape that thrust the market to all new time highs. All this while the journalist insists that the real edge sits in Tehran. (Give me a break.) Price has made the call and not the headlines, not the rhetoric but on the one question that actually matters.
The question we should be asking is who can afford to keep this going the longest. Once you strip out the theater, the answer is not the one you are being sold. …. The prices in the market are telling that Iran is not an empowered adversary dictating terms to a paralyzed American administration. The price points to a constrained energy producer hitting the natural limits of its own system that needs flow and is precarious on the edge of irreversible damage. Global inflation looks louder than it is in practice. The market is not looking at Hormuz but instead is looking to the blizzard of capital created by upcoming market and technology coming to market.’
Happy Trading!!!
This isn’t about the Tape, and all-time highs mean there is only one place to go but down, soon, have you ever looked at a long-term chart?
“After the stock market crash of Oct. 29, 1929, the S&P 500 fell 86% in less than three years and did not regain its previous peak until 1954″ and inflation-adjusted, it was much much longer, 1985, and next all-time high peak was 1999.
You’ll be dead of old age before you see the next “all-time” high.
And there are more important things than money, if Great Depression 2 gets bad enough, you will likely be aced by your neighbors coming to take your money, food and anything else you got.
You are like Nero and the fiddle.
Iran never said they were sending negotiators to Pakistan. They said they were sending an envoy to discuss the situation with Pakistani officials. They also said they have no plans to negotiate until the US ends their blockade and Israel stops fighting in Lebanon.
Trump is so desperate for a deal that he reacted to this situation and spent the last few days talking up the lie that he has all the cards and Iran “wants” to negotiate. He had Kushner and Witcoff ready to go on a moments notice if Iran gave any sign that they were ready to talk.
Then, when he found out Iran’s envoy had left Pakistan and had no intention of negotiating, he called Fox News to tell them he “changed his mind and called off the talks.”
Hilarious!
Exactly right. Trump told the media last week that JD Vance had already left for Pakistan to meet for talks, in order to pump up the markets. When Iran made it crystal clear they were not meeting with him, suddenly we find out he had never left at all. The next day, Trump tells the markets Witkoff and Kushner are headed to Iran, and again we find out much later that they never left and aren’t going either.
Didn’t the Iranians already say they weren’t going to negotiate with Witkoff & Kushner? What part of that does Trump not understand?
Jared and golf buddy we’re gonna try and crash it, lol!
Exactly, just like the movie Wedding Crashers. They should have sent Kash Patel instead, he seems more outgoing and ready for a party.
I fully expected the idiots in DC to order another attack on Iran last nite. I suspect Trump will do about as well negotiating with Iran as he has done with Ukraine…
One of the first responses to another attack on Iran will be to send a swarm of drones to blow numerous holes in the Saudi East-West pipeline
But they didn’t succeed because the oil is flowing. From Gemini AI:
Surely you can make one accurate post today?
My post was accurate. The words “will be” mean it will happen in the future. The problem with AI is if you put garbage in you get garbage out.
Predictions aren’t worth the toilet paper you wipe your ass with. Why not create a prediction market bet and put your money where your mouth is?
The United States could end the War On Russia immediately, if it wished to.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/diplomatic-theater
These negotiations are not being conducted in good faith, so I continue to expect them to go nowhere. Trump keeps talking like a deal is just around the corner, but it is nonsense. The Iranians are going to absolutely nail down their pre-conditions before there are any further talks, they don’t want the US to again waste everyone’s time sending negotiators who have no power to agree to anything.
Trump has a naval blockade to prevent not only oil tankers from going anywhere, but also to prevent any ships from resupplying Iran with food, medicine, spare parts, etc. Iran views this as a violation of the ceasefire and has warned the US that it will close the Bab al-Mandab strait if the blockade continues.
Since they are so far apart on all the major issues, I expect the Bab strait to be closed by the Houthis in the next week. This will further intensify the conflict and definitely raise the price of oil.
Is there any actual evidence the Iranians are under any pressure at all to make a deal? Or is this a WMD-style figment of our intelligence services’s vivid imaginations?
Iran was no threat to the US at all. The only reason this war was started was because of Israeli pressure on Trump. The Iranians don’t trust the US. They have been burned before by having negotiators assassinated, being told by the US a deal was close and being bombed while waiting for the US response, and having the US come back and do more bombings later. The Iranians want to end that cycle by making the US pay a heavy price for starting this war.
Of course Iran would prefer to end the war, but they will not put themselves in a position where the US comes back and bombs them once a year.
This war will end in one of two ways. Either the US invades Iran with ground troops, starting a 10+ year war, or the US abandons the Middle East and declares victory. I’m hoping for the latter.
They were a threat to Israel and the world in general. Thankful that Trump had the cojones to back up Israel.
Israel is a threat to the world.
Once again the imminent threat to the world is, at the same time, completely defeated in a few weeks, both per Jojo.
umm, Iran has long land with borders with friendly neighboring nations, and Russia keeps sending ships (Caspian Sea) and planes loaded with supplies to Iran…so they won’t lack for food, medical supples, spare parts etc. The railroad from China to Iran has been fully repaired and is back in operation.
The USA has intercepted 3 or 4 out of about 40+ Iranian ships, so maybe 2 to 5% of outbound Iran tankers. So some oil exports from Iran are reduced, but they still have pipelines, rail and truck routes, some energy exports will continue. If Iran needs money, China will provide it I am sure.
Iran can last years longer than America, whose time is about 2 more weeks before critical shortages of everything become so blatantly obvious that even delusional markets drunk on Trump hopium won’t be able to ignore the facts.
Yes, that’s right, the blockade is nowhere near as effective as Trump thinks it is, though 90% of Iran’s imports normally come by ship from the area Trump is blockading.
The blockade against the blockade itself is a grand fiction. We don’t have enough naval vessels to effectively enforce it, so many ships have sailed on through.