Views of the present situation and future expectations both declined dramatically. 
Consumer Confidence Down Again
In what should be no surprise, US Consumer Confidence Fell in September
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was September 1-23, which included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”
Consumer Confidence Present Situation and Expectations
Write-In Responses
“Consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs. Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.”
The Present Situation Index worsened in September. Net views of current business conditions—the share saying conditions are “good” versus “bad”—declined by 3.4 percentage points to –1.9%. The fall was largely driven by more consumers reporting that business conditions are “bad.” Perceptions of current employment conditions also softened, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—retreating by 2.5 ppts to just +1.7%.
Consumer Confidence Current Financial Situation
For the first time since 2022 the number of people saying their financial situation is bad outnumbered those saying it was good.
Consumer Confidence by Generation
Given the stock market strength and where wealth is concentrated the relative decline of baby boomers, generation X, and Zoomers this year is a bit of a surprise.
In 2026, confidence of the silent generation is down from over 100 to under 80, the steepest decline of any generation.
There is much more in the report. Inquiring minds may wish a deeper look.
Consumer Sentiment Just Above Record Lows
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence report is not to be confused with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
However, both measure the same things.
On September 25, 2026, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows
Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.
Partisan Sentiment Changes
- After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026.
- Democrats are down 13% over the same period.
The partisan sentiment in the University of Michigan survey seems to align with the generation plunge in the Conference Board summary.
Are zoomers and millennials excited by voting Republicans out of office while the silent generation worries about what the zoomers will do?
As consumer, and mid and lower-Tier Corporate Credits max out their last borrowings things should roll over soon. Credit growth for both has ben mutiples of any real income (or negative real wages).
KC Fed is showing decently correlated Consumer Inflation Expectations which is proper as having checked THE SINGLE BIGGEST DRIVER in the Cleveland Fed’s InflationNOW cast IS INDEED GASOLINE. https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/charting-the-economy/#card-0
Decades back as a Stock Analyst I recall most shops used a oil price change (of some degree, type, lag, or however) for modeling general economic costs of manufacturing. So it’s coming.
No sooner did ridiculous (IMHO, as I ain’t buying it!) $5+ a bag Doritos finally get some price rollbacks just a couple months ago from Pepsi, than NOW on Monday Pepsi and Conagra announced new price hikes coming over Oct and Sept.
More I’ll be living without unless I can mooch some from a Trump cronnie.
Found on internet:
“What’s most interesting is how much it doesn’t matter at all; the poors spend mostly every penny that they have. That spend is locked in. As long as people can string together however many jobs, and borrow money, it’s immaterial relative to spending by the wealthy, which drives the/their economy.”
MAGA people, a group designed by Fox News to worship Trump are starting to break. They always got their sense of self-worth from each other due to constant reinforcement, kind of like church. But now everything’s gone so wrong that the reinforcement is gone. Now we’re in phase 2: questioning that maybe Trump isn’t the Second Coming. Next will come blaming the Democrats, and finally total rejection of the electoral system.
I dunno, watch them blame someone else, China, Iran, Biden, anyone but Trump.
Worked for over 45 years had a family raised kids never once contacted or surveyed for:
Consumer confidence
Current political issues
Who I might vote for
Or any poll that I have herd results for
Guess I was just lucky.
in the rich world we inhabit, a few minutes to answer a survey seems about as trite as can be. for the long form census i had to check off most of the ethnic boxes. got a call back. which was fun. i explained my not knowing who my real father was, without a dna test. nobody really does.
Let’s hold a minute of silence for Senator Eric Schmitt, who is having a MAGA bad day.
Mr. “dirtbag”.
The lemmings are starting to feel the cool sea air…
The silent generation……at that age, people not so concerned with money anymore (often someone else worries about it, for you).
Steep drop in graph since Jan. – prob more political than economic….watching Trump’s storm troopers attack immigrants & Americans.
That generation had expectations of a President as an intelligent, moral leader for the whole nation and world.
Middle class culture, any culture, can only stand if it is rewarded. In prior times middle class culture was fundamentally supported by the upper classes, who invested in America, creating vast wealth.
They modeled sobriety, hard-work, risk and reward. The working classes modeled the behavior through church and labor guilds, standing together for each other and the nation.
The wealthy have abandoned America, and the working classes have abandoned faith, guilds, and each other. Into that void steps cultural anarchy.
Society requires hard-work, and discipline. It requires accountability, primarily of the wealthy. I tire of prose that lament the loss of culture without holding those accountable who have abandoned their responsibilities.
Is there a worse modeling of hard work, discipline, and accountability than Uniparty politicians?
For a long time, there was an unspoken bargain (especially if you are white): work moderately hard, play by the rules that matter, and you will have a reasonably comfortable life. Not only that, but if they do the same, your offspring will have a good shot at living a better life than you had.
That bargain has broken down. The only thing that hard work and fair play will get you is old.
The republicans should just take a page from Biden’s economic strategist: Use macroeconomics to support arguments that people just feel bad, and that the economy is actually great, i.e. the GDP is up and rich people are buying tons of assets.
I’m not certain why the downvotes here. That was one of Biden’s biggest problems, how to claim things weren’t so bad, and his policies were working.
Meanwhile inflation was raging and the border was a mess.
Voters under biden couldn’t afford cars, houses, and food was becoming outrageous. Biden told us we just feel bad..
And people wonder why people voted trump?
The whole point of all my posts is to give an analysis of the greater system, beyond left and right. You obviously get it tollsforthee.
The downvotes are mostly from establishment bots that want to protect the system by creating the illusion that the two parties are mostly separate, and it’s the Others fault that things are bad; and this propaganda will work on a few humans, which adds more downvotes.
This country will flip between repubs and dems until this empire collapses, as every other empire in history has.
We have yet to break symmetry and enter our peaceful star-trek future which should be damn possible.
“The whole point of all my posts is to give an analysis of the greater system…”
“This country will flip between repubs and dems until this empire collapses…”
Since you look at the bigger picture, would you like to put forth a possible timeline when ‘this empire collapses’? LOL
In ten years? By the time my future grandkids are elderly? In the epoch of my great-, great-, …, great-grandkids?
It’s fine to say only you and a handful of others see the big picture. But others have been saying that for decades. And yet the standard of living in the US – on average – is much higher now than when those prognosticators were prognosticating.
Standards of living are up but it hasn’t translated into more happiness, health that keeps pace with peer countries or trust in the instiutions, and the averages hide hwo get left behind.
I don’t care when the collapse happens. I just focus on self improvement, inside and out, and trying to live a good life in this system.
Yeah, Trump never did that.
my point still stands; the democrats will manipulate us and lie to us just like trump. our system needs to change.
Lack of confidence is a market killer. This can come from such things as government incoherence and corruption. Some segments in the economy are slipping (or so people think) toward a policy-induced crash. Ironically, that means mandatory (thus reliable) government spending programs such as entitlements and military spending end up being drivers of consumption. But I’m sure luxury goods and rigged Orange Guy golf tournaments are doing gangbusters.
I’ve heard that US GDP is 70% consumer consumption. But obviously in our new AI centric land that probably isn’t true anymore. AI has become the new artificial consumer. Could be our tech oligarchs have finally decoupled themselves from us pesky humans.
Eventually you’ll wake one morning to find one of Musk’s robots knocking on your door.
The K-shaped economy lower leg is really getting hammered about now and it will get much much worse as these Western oligarch driven resource wars spread or get worse.
Frictionless financial perpetual motion requires that, income not spent, is reintroduced into the economy, completing the circuit income and transactions’ velocity of funds (*circular flow*), thereby sustaining and promoting economic momentum. The utilization of savings has a positive economic multiplier.
We need high real rates of interest and low inflation, aka, the US Golden Era in Capitalism
Ah what is that question republicans always bring up when dems are in charge. Think it goes something( so are you better off than you were two years ago. )
The silent generation is mostly drooling on themselves now in retirement homes and nursing care. They really don’t care what Zoomers and Millennials do because they won’t live long enough to see any of it or will be so mentally unaware of what’s going on.
Pudding day is all they have to look forward to.
I like puddin. Says tge forest gump voice in my head.
I think they really luck forward to fruit cup.
Sounds good
Exactly. They’re dying off and their lack of care of critical analysis will do us all good. These are harsh statements, but they contributed to the destruction of our country by the Uniparty-both Democrats and Republicans. This blind trust and failure to acknowledge fault is destroying our country. This is why I’m an Independent. Was a Democrat through my family in my younger years, then became a Republican and finally got it in my thick skull that these people are psychopaths that are only looking to enrich themselves and destroy the world. They don’t believe in doing business with other countries, they believe in conquest and slavery. They don’t care about the declining Middle Class. They care only of supporting the American oligarchs, corporations and Israel/Zionist Club of America.
So, I got crocodile tears for these folks. Appreciate their profession contributions, but there is more to being a responsible citizen than working and consuming.
Around 80% of them are dead, but of the ones still alive, around 40% still live on their own.
I know one just exiting her lifelong house after multiple falls, while living on her own (for new care at $840/day), and the other I know I am carting for, mitigating said care costs. Then again, if I recall, Biden wanted to institutionalize federally paying such things, and forgiving student loans, and who knows where that would have led, inflation wise. He seemingly wanted to write checks to everybody, I think genuinely but naively and perhaps in his tender senility, compassionately. But allegedly Biden did draw a line eventually with Bibi (Atlantic article this week, I linked here this week), which might mean we might very would not be in this war, even as Biden himself would be wheeled off to Happy Acres.
The annual impact of student loan forgiveness would not be able to cause much inflation. Why is “for new care at $840/day”?
So 40% of 20% (remaining ones living) is 8% of them being mentally aware and able to take care of themselves (includes my parents who are 90 & 88 and living in their home). But that 8% will rapidly decrease each year.
Who knew?
What I notice right away is the decrease in consumer confidence of the oldest three generations that occurred coincident with Trump’s election. These are the people most likely to identify as MAGA, but they have been generally less and less confident since they ‘won’
It’s because Joe Biden and his secret cabal of Soros clones is working to undermine their savior each and every day! Times are hard because Joe Biden makes them that way.
The Hunter laptop is going to climb through their window and bite their grandchildren.
Thanks, Mish, for the analysis, especially the difference for present vs. expectations and especially, especially by generation.
This type of analysis shows why we should care about something like consumer confidence – more chance now of people buying less in the upcoming future.
But also because it goes past just the anecdotal opinion a lot of commenters here post of “I see…” when it’s obvious from the generational graph that “I” doesn’t apply nearly to everyone else.
As the inflationary depression lumbers along, and the gap between the haves and havenots widens, gross consumerism will continue to decline.
Hence a very fenced velvet rope economy carving out enclaves for $10,000 purses, yachts, resort living, orbiting entertainment platforms. Hence beefed up militarized internal security forces.
What would the valuations of the current SPX blow-off be -without the counterbalancing wet-blanket Iran war with its resulting current US $6.40 diesel, $4.45 gas, 5.6% 30 year bonds, and its decade low consumer confidence?
My QQQ is flat flat flat.
Time to move to SQQQ
As to the blog post–i am never surpised at the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers massive passive wealth not being enough to stop bitching about inflation. It’s almost a cope or deflection at this point to walk amongst those actually impacted by inflation to say it’s bad and care about it…to assuage the guilt of 17 years of insane market gains relative to said inflation.
All I know is that 30 year bond yield rise, it’s pace, is starting to look interesting. At what point should a person be dabbling their kevlar hands in there to catch falling knives. Inquiring minds want to know.
It’s all paper. Those who could handle a 50% loss and still be set for life are justifiably insouciant about it. What percentage of Boomer and X population is that? A minority, for sure.
If you plan to move over your stock holdings into bonds and you are worried about getting the maximum rate you should be laddering rather than trying to time the rates.
30 day TBills are paying 4% now and that’s a quick ladder turn around.
One of my buddies father bought several million in utility and carefully researched public sector long term bonds paying close to 20% in the early 80’s. Major money maker over the long haul both in the value of the bonds rising as the interest rates lowered and in the hundreds of thousands in interest payments per year.
Hopefully, voters will vote their pocketbooks at the mid-term elections and rid the country of some of these scoundrels.
We need different scoundrels. They couldn’t be any worse.
If we must have scoundrels, I prefer that they be fresh. They really get stinky as they age.
I think Chuck Grassley will be 96 if he survives until the end of his Senate term!
i lived in charleston SC, when old Strom was 100 and my senator. there was an old live oak in charleston where the black folks said old strom was a regular back when they hung black men right in town. kind of tough love.
In 1925, Thurmond fathered a child born to Carrie Butler, an African-American teenager who worked as his family’s housekeeper. In 2003, the Thurmond family confirmed that Thurmond fathered a mixed-race daughter named Essie Mae with Butler. While her paternity was long hidden, he helped support her and paid for her college education
Ol’ Spermin’ Thurmond they called him…
BB / Israel is finished.
Did you hear the latest news?
UAE and Egypt exposed Israel’s GAZA war and Genocide.
UAE and Egypt warned Netanyahu / Israel – HAMAS attack is coming.
Netanyahu ignored the warning and sacrificed his own people so that
he can attack Hamas and commit genocide against Palestine officially
and fairly because pretending they are victims.
Now UAE and Egypt exposure clearly revealed Netanyahu a pathological
liar and psychopath.
Which country going to stand by Israel?
Israel in deep deep trouble and BB will be in jail for life, I really think so.
I can guarantee politicians won’t do anything about this. They do not want to tarnish the idea of using a false flag operation. It happens all the time and everybody just shrugs.
At least opinion matters.
Since before this latest incidence, AIPAC supported candidates are defeated in local elections. Candidates don’t want their names together with AIPAC.
I mean even before this incidence.
Previously people can accept Jews were victims.
Now nobody can deny Israel committing genocide against Palestine. US support genocide. European support genocide.
There is no place for AIPAC / jew organisations in US election.
This genocide can’t be removed from history.
How can you support Israel officially?
No future for Israel.
i’ve said for years, when amerika crumbles away as a world wide imperial power, israel is history. israel was set up as useful idiots by the UK. we took over the role to use them as useful idiots near the vast pools of oil, that amerika owns. /sarc. poor dumb israel. imagine convincing european jews to move to mideast and start a new country around a billion muslims. many of my hasidic jewish pals and non believing jew pals in brooklyn agree with me. useful idiots. the poor bastards. they will fold up and leave when usa totally retreats from mideast. smells like it might only be a few decades away. maybe less.
Bibi will provide a handy scapegoat to his masses of cheering compatriots, admitted or not. The prototype was Adolf, who became the world’s most massive get- out-of-admitting-responsibility card ever. Then there was the USA, whom Adolf admired and emulated, in their doings with the Native Americans.
and the spanish concentration camps in cuba.