Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final September report, released today.
Sentiment Key Points
- Consumer sentiment ticked down less than four index points in September, reaching the lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026.
- Views of current and year-ahead expected personal finances both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns over high prices continuing to climb.
- The short-run outlook for business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy as a whole.
- Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.
Partisan Sentiment Changes
- After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026.
- Democrats are down 13% over the same period.
Inflation Outlook
- Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June.
- The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.
- Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
Sentiment Never Recovered After Covid
- 6-Year High Pre-Covid: 121.2
- 6-Year Low Pre-Covid: 100.8
- 6-Year High Post-Covid: 97.2
- 6-Year High Post-Covid: 45.8
Notably, the 6-Year pre-Covid low is higher than the 6-Year post-Covid high.
The same is true with the three-month moving average of the overall index.
Inflation Expectations
One-Year and 5-Year Inflation Expectations
- One-Year: 4.6 percent
- Five-year: 3.4 percent
Partisan Sentiment
Partisan Sentiment Change Since February 2025
- Democrats: Down 13 percent
- Independents: Down 22 percent
- Republicans: Down 28 percent
Republicans expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.
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September 23, 2026: Energy Secretary Discusses a Voluntary Cap on Diesel Exports, Not a Ban
The idea is sure to annoy everyone for being too much or not enough.
[…] September 25, 2026: Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows […]
[…] On September 25, 2026, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows […]
Trump doesn’t care.
IF the election is held and is legal, the GOP will lose by a landslide. Assuming the unconstitutional and kleptocratic GOP majority supreme court doesn’t rule otherwise and the GOP congress doesn’t sabotage the certification process, Trump will only have sixty- one days to act as an autocrat.
Articles of Impeachment should be drawn up during the lame duck congress by the newly elected House and voted on January 4th after they are sworn in. Assuming the majority vote for impeachment, on January 5th a trial is scheduled in the senate. Americans then find out the senators vote to convict and acquit, Should there not be sixty-seven votes, congress then investigates, holds hearings and invokes the War Powers Act. Should Trump veto it, then congress doesn’t fund the war.
This non funding means the president has no money. To accomplish this the senate must filibuster the CR starting on December 11,2026 demanding removal of the supplemental Iraq war funding.
This is how the Democrats and/or lame duck senate can end the most unpopular war in the nation’s history.
Wow, you take the holy name of FDR, and you can see into the future.
I’ll give you one thing; you’re just as big a bullshitter as he was. It’s a shame that it’s on a much smaller stage.
This administration was never about The People.
The only areas they have made any progress are: anti-abortion/contraception, remigration, stifling dissention, white supremacy, blocking votes
Tucker Carlson, in an interview released yesterday with NPR
“I said to Trump, you know, 4 days before the war started, if you do this, you know, the United States will be kicked out of the Gulf. The American Empire will begin to collapse. Your legacy will be destroyed along with your party.
I said this to Trump to his face in the Oval Office days before the war began, and he looked at me and said, ‘Yes, you’re right. But in the end, we all die anyway, so it doesn’t matter.’ That’s exactly what he said. ‘In the end, we all die anyway.’”
Does it mean that there is no need in White House to pay attention to consumer sentiment reports because in the end we all die anyway?
Probably.
I am not sure that mid-term voters see it the same way.
“We all die anyway” is simply a thought terminating cliche, uttered by a man who doesn’t want to be bothered with facts. His mind is already made up.
In this case, because Israel has him by the nuts.
bebe has all the epstein dirt on trump
The Orangutan has been eating from his diaper too much.
F##k Tucker Carlson, why should that piece of shit get a second act
He’s a MAGA loser forever
Interesting that despite the malaise in Europe the US seems to be gloomier…
OECD data show that, for a single worker previously earning 67% of the average wage, disposable income after 12 months of unemployment is about 9% of the previous level in the US, versus 66% in France and 60% in Germany under their standard assumptions.
In other words you have much more to lose in the US from a downturn (even before mentioning healthcare).
Should one of your sentiment “highs” be a “low”?
I don’t buy squat.
In New England, heating oil (basically diesel) is a big deal. A lot of folks are going to be struggling to stay warm this winter. Local feelings about Trump and Republicans in general are not warm, to say the least. Many people are getting their first tank of the season over the next 2 months, and I think that shock alone could tip the scales in Maine, for example.
Collins was one of four GOP senators to vote yesterday in favor of a resolution calling on Trump to end military hostilities with Iran or seek formal congressional authorization. So there’s that. She’s still toast, though.
People in New England should have replaced their obsolete oil furnaces decades ago.
Sure, but if you couldn’t afford to, or inherited a house with I, you’re stuck.
Yes for some reason americans reject the two biggest money savers. heat pumps and bidets I guess they like dirty fuel and itchy butts maybe that is why they are so hateful
Add that to my list of reasons I’m thankful I moved out of the northeast.
I was talking to a guy the other day who filled his oil tank He got the bill and called the supplier to tell them they charged him for 2 tanks and he only has one
Just so people know, these are the questions
Index Questions
The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is derived from the following five questions:
“We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?””Now looking ahead–do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?””Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole–do you think that during the next twelve months we’ll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?””Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely–that in the country as a whole we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?””About the big things people buy for their homes–such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?”
The questions can be found this path. First go here:
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
On that page look for the list of Special Reports(near the top) and select the first one (they’re all pdfs.)
Read our special reports:
7/10/26
Sentiment, Web-Based Data Collection, and Partisanship
Scroll to the bottom of that pdf and look for the line below in the “Appendix” section. The word “here” is a link to the pdf with the questions. You wouldn’t think it would be that difficult to get the questions but what do I know.
Question text for components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment are detailed here.
Nobody cares about the woes of the proles.
The proles do, and some of them vote.
They get a choice of carefully vetted and curated corporate imperialist muppets.
That does look to be true by the results, but you do have the primaries. Fairly ordinary voters get to at least express an opinion about who should be their party’s candidate. The results don’t always do much credit to their intelligence: I was appalled when Jimmy Carter and Obama apparently were favored by ordinary voters to be their party’s candidates for an important office. And they went on to be elected by a majority of the public (not just the party supporters), Obama twice. You couldn’t have a more eloquent demonstration of the decadence of modern democracy than that.
I don’t suppose either of those two was ever really in charge of anything. I suppose some sort of hidden committee oversaw what was on their teleprompters and okayed their signature of bills. But all the same, the public tolerated it.
I think when you use an expression like “corporate imperialist muppets” to describe them, you have to recognize the serious corporate interests that are presumably behind everything that is done. You have the great media corporations that manage to a large degree what the public think. You have the “education” system that is responsible for putting the minds of the young through a sort of blender that largely prevents them from being able to think coherently. Most of all, you have the modern military manufacturers that are responsible for keeping America ahead in the arms race, and ensuring as far as possible that the American empire can continue into the future. Finally, you have the strange traditional religions that people to some degree identify with because of where their ancestors came from: Catholicism, Protestant Christianity, Judaism, even Mormonism. I haven’t taken Christianity seriously since the age of about ten, but all the same I still think of myself to some degree as a Lutheran, because of where my ancestors came from. I know many city dwellers are more deracinated than that, but if so, I think they tend to see themselves as citizens of their towns. That matters in the case of large towns: they are large corporations with serious corporate interests.
We don’t see the leaders of the traditional religions or the mayors of large cities exercising influence, but they probably do.
I suggest that you could look at the president as the head of the public relations side of the government, not as the head of the real government. There may be no head of the real government. Like an individual human mind, it may be governed by different parts (emotional or rational) at different times, according to circumstances. Obviously a strong president like Trump has more influence than a weak president like Obama or Biden, but to what extent he is really in charge is something that I don’t think is obvious. Trump was overwhelmed by public panic during the Chinese flu episode, and allowed decision-making in that area to be taken over by Dr. Fauci. I got the impression that he was struggling to retain a degree of calm and rational control, but just couldn’t do it. The news organizations wanted Fauci, and so did the bureaucrats and local politicians (who had a whale of a time making rules and ignoring them themselves), so Fauci they got.
With sentiment at such low levels for an extended time, a contrarian might just get famous calling a bottom.
Cheer up! Americans have so much to look forward to!
1. Stagnant wages
2. Unaffordable health care
3. rising prices on everything
4. Future job loss due to AI powered robots
All I can say is that if Zuckerberg or Musk wants to put a data center in your neighborhood, just say no! It will only make your life worse.
and now this: Trump proposal for subsidies to at-home parents misses the mark, St. Louis sociologist saysThis is a reward for stay at home parent households and only the wealthy can afford to have one parent not working
This is republican bs https://www.stlpr.org/show/st-louis-on-the-air/2026-09-23/trump-proposal-subsidies-at-home-working-parents-st-louis-washu
Since he’s full of gimmicks, he should have tried the gimmick of doing what he said he would and not start a war with Iran. Oops.
That’s crazy talk.
Luckily, like all the rest, this is a cynical fraud.
Now they have electric gloves and robot dogs for that sort of commie Luddites, a gleaming golden victory tower with drones, snipers and lasers, and some nice detention centers also installed. All this is dual use technology, can be re-aimed in a heartbeat. Smells like victory. But what will Melania wear?
“Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?” Chico Marx.
Just like with the election polls, it looks like there is an over sampling of illegals.
Don’t humor yourself.
Like illegals answer surveys,
Sheeesh, how stupid
Now you’ve got people wondering who takes these surveys. Probably people without a job who are losing their fraudulent SNAP benefits. They would be another category of folks whose outlook is grim.
I admit, I don’t answer surveys or polls, which, though anecdotal, makes me at least slightly suspect about their methodology. What proportion of others behave as I do?
How about a normal working couple in their mid to late thirties that can’t afford health insurance, a new car, or to buy their first home?
Both working and putting off having children because of the financial strain.
I thought Trumpstien got rid of the illegals. You saying he didn’t?
Trump’s working on it. Record number of illegals getting kicked out. Hence, the low consumer ratings and ,yes, they take surveys.
This being sourced straight from your ass or his?
This consumer sentiment report came in with a lower reading than when we had a 10%+ unemployment rate. It simply doesn’t pass the smell test. So, you gotta look at the demographics of those that could be oversampled, or you can believe it was simply made up.
Or you could accept that sentiment is very low because Trump made a mess of legendary proportions.
Or, it could have been when unemployment benefits were Sky-high, but now everyone’s back to work and inflation has eaten their paychecks alive.
But you’d rather pretend that there’s something changed about the survey.
Unemployment benefits weren’t sky high in 2010. Unemployment was 10%. Michigan consumer report numbers were in the 70s.
So, yep they are oversampling the type of folks who took out loans for their gender studies degrees who can only find work at Starbucks, or the report is made up whole cloth.
idiot
yes just like everything the molester says
Only an eternal threat keeps the robot dogs operational. War is peace.
Yep. That theory is much more likely than the idea that people are disappointed in Trump for starting an unprovoked war, raising inflation through tariffs, running up the deficit, and of course hide the Epstein files.
So, you’re saying that those responding to the survey didn’t base their answers on how they are doing economically or how the economy overall is performing, but instead on media fed feelings.
This consumer is hoping that Congress will rein in their spending and reduce the deficent. Till then, its between me and Bessent. I am shorting long dated treasuries while he buys them.
Congress stop spending OUR money like drunken fools.. Surely you jest.
Technically its not our money. Its our debt since they are printing it.
I guess Bessent will be the last bag holder for everybody.
yes lets stop spending billions on wars we dont need to fight and corporate hand outs and lets actually tax billionaires and multimillionaires oh that is just stupid lets tarriff our way out
But…but…but the “strong economy”…! Wages are soaring, inflation is subdued, GDP is 3%, %5 or whatever…consumer spending is roaring away, rate increases…blah blah blah
My suspicion is that the usual measured-and-surveyed consumer demographic (big spenders, big earners, full-time, “metro areas”) IS very happy with this economy
Yeah, the big spenders and the big earners are the ones answering the surveys LOL
trump fired the person who does the analysis and put in his own person so we should believe it now data centers are the whole economy
Hopefully, this will be reflected in the results of the mid-term elections.
Markets at all-time highs. Most people on this blog comment section are MASSIVELY in the chips. Paying more for gas. Paying more for groceries. Paying more for everything. But, if you’re in the market you’re MILES ahead.
Of course that fixes nothing structurally wrong. And people want to keep all their passive, tax-advantaged, UNEARNED income. And they don’t wanna hear they are wealthier than ever. They see gas prices and know that they are having to part with some of that wealth. And the gas signs are visible, in your face everywhere you drive.
The up-and-to-the-right K-shaped economy dwellers oddly complain as much as those ACTUALLY impacted by the inflation, the down-and-to-the-right toilers.
Things are just crazy but that’s gonna happen when all you do is manufacture and distribute money for decades by borrowing it from the future and giving it mostly to the connected.
The markets are more sanguine than consumer sentiment. Nothing to see here, move along.
….But I’ve never seen bond yields on the long end move so rapidly upward.
Mr. Bessent buying long bonds didn’t do anything but lose money on that portion of the trade.
It gets wackier by the day.
100%
Miles ahead, until the whole shithouse goes up in flames one morning and you’re not.
I just keep thinking about that Method Man clip from the 90s where he says, “The Illuminati is in effect. The Illuminati ain’t nothin but there’s gonna be a 2nd Great Depression in America. Except this time, Corporate America, their money is gonna be safe. All the rest of us who don’t own our own businesses and things of that nature, we’re gonna be killing each other in the streets.”
A kinder gentler version might be, diversify. Become an owner and creditor of businesses across the global economy. Maybe that means the kid doesn’t get a stupid catered birthday party he doesn’t need. Maybe you eat peanut butter sandwiches and ramen for some years. OK then. Diversify and keep on doing it. If logging into a brokerage site and buying equities commission-free every month or else killing each other in the streets are the alternatives, I guess I know which I like.
Am I clueless and saying let them eat cake? I can’t tell. I think I’m sincere. I don’t imagine I’m immune from the streets scenario.
Certainly not clueless. After you paint your own house (saving say $8k), entice your kid with “Hey, I can pay to cater your party for $2k OR you open a brokerage account, and I help you buy 23 shares of VXUS” 🙂
this market is so overpriced it will not end well
The further the bond market rises the surer stocks are going to be going down.
The obvious reason is why risk anything in stocks if you can start earning 6, 7, 8+% in treasuries.
Because if inflation gets near 5%, earning 6-7% on a Treasury will suck. I’ll stick with earnings on company shares in that scenario.
yes in any normal market you would expect the s&p yield to be higher than the 10 year. only a gambler or a fool would not expect to be paid for increased risk
“….But I’ve never seen bond yields on the long end move so rapidly upward.” Really?
10-year bond yields moved from1.4% to 3.3% (doubling +!) in 1.5 years from Jan 2022 – June 2023.
And from 3.3% to 5.0% in 6 months from April – October 2023.
Both times the stock market and the real economy survived. People keep on living their lives.
Markets at all-time highs. for now