Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final September report, released today.
Sentiment Key Points
- Consumer sentiment ticked down less than four index points in September, reaching the lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026.
- Views of current and year-ahead expected personal finances both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns over high prices continuing to climb.
- The short-run outlook for business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy as a whole.
- Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.
Partisan Sentiment Changes
- After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026.
- Democrats are down 13% over the same period.
Inflation Outlook
- Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June.
- The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.
- Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
Sentiment Never Recovered After Covid
- 6-Year High Pre-Covid: 121.2
- 6-Year Low Pre-Covid: 100.8
- 6-Year High Post-Covid: 97.2
- 6-Year High Post-Covid: 45.8
Notably, the 6-Year pre-Covid low is higher than the 6-Year post-Covid high.
The same is true with the three-month moving average of the overall index.
Inflation Expectations
One-Year and 5-Year Inflation Expectations
- One-Year: 4.6 percent
- Five-year: 3.4 percent
Partisan Sentiment
Partisan Sentiment Change Since February 2025
- Democrats: Down 13 percent
- Independents: Down 22 percent
- Republicans: Down 28 percent
Republicans expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.
Related Posts
September 22, 2026: Republican Politicians Distance Themselves from Trump. Sorry, Too Late
Even in deep red states, republicans stand up to Trump.
September 22, 2026: Long Bond Yield Surges to Highest Level in 22 Years, What’s Behind the Increase?
The S&P Services PMI is the trigger. Prices leap and shortages noted.
September 23, 2026: Energy Secretary Discusses a Voluntary Cap on Diesel Exports, Not a Ban
The idea is sure to annoy everyone for being too much or not enough.
I don’t buy squat.
In New England, heating oil (basically diesel) is a big deal. A lot of folks are going to be struggling to stay warm this winter. Local feelings about Trump and Republicans in general are not warm, to say the least. Many people are getting their first tank of the season over the next 2 months, and I think that shock alone could tip the scales in Maine, for example.
Nobody cares about the woes of the proles.
With sentiment at such low levels for an extended time, a contrarian might just get famous calling a bottom.
Cheer up! Americans have so much to look forward to!
1. Stagnant wages
2. Unaffordable health care
3. rising prices on everything
4. Future job loss due to AI powered robots
All I can say is that if Zuckerberg or Musk wants to put a data center in your neighborhood, just say no! It will only make your life worse.
and now this: Trump proposal for subsidies to at-home parents misses the mark, St. Louis sociologist saysThis is a reward for stay at home parent households and only the wealthy can afford to have one parent not working
This is republican bs https://www.stlpr.org/show/st-louis-on-the-air/2026-09-23/trump-proposal-subsidies-at-home-working-parents-st-louis-washu
Since he’s full of gimmicks, he should have tried the gimmick of doing what he said he would and not start a war with Iran. Oops.
That’s crazy talk.
Luckily, like all the rest, it is a cynical fraud.
Now they have electric gloves and robot dogs for that sort of commie Luddites, a gleaming golden victory tower with drones, snipers and lasers, and some nice detention centers also installed. All this is dual use technology, can be re-aimed in a heartbeat. Smells like victory. But what will Melania wear?
“Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?” Chico Marx.
Just like with the election polls, it looks like there is an over sampling of illegals.
Don’t humor yourself.
Like illegals answer surveys,
Sheeesh, how stupid
Now you’ve got people wondering who takes these surveys. Probably people without a job who are losing their fraudulent SNAP benefits. They would be another category of folks whose outlook is grim.
I thought Trumpstien got rid of the illegals. You saying he didn’t?
Trump’s working on it. Record number of illegals getting kicked out. Hence, the low consumer ratings and ,yes, they take surveys.
This being sourced straight from your ass or his?
Only an eternal threat keeps the robot dogs operational. War is peace.
This consumer is hoping that Congress will rein in their spending and reduce the deficent. Till then, its between me and Bessent. I am shorting long dated treasuries while he buys them.
Congress stop spending OUR money like drunken fools.. Surely you jest.
Technically its not our money. Its our debt since they are printing it.
I guess Bessent will be the last bag holder for everybody.
But…but…but the “strong economy”…! Wages are soaring, inflation is subdued, GDP is 3%, %5 or whatever…consumer spending is roaring away, rate increases…blah blah blah
My suspicion is that the usual measured-and-surveyed consumer demographic (big spenders, big earners, full-time, “metro areas”) IS very happy with this economy
Hopefully, this will be reflected in the results of the mid-term elections.
Markets at all-time highs. Most people on this blog comment section are MASSIVELY in the chips. Paying more for gas. Paying more for groceries. Paying more for everything. But, if you’re in the market you’re MILES ahead.
Of course that fixes nothing structurally wrong. And people want to keep all their passive, tax-advantaged, UNEARNED income. And they don’t wanna hear they are wealthier than ever. They see gas prices and know that they are having to part with some of that wealth. And the gas signs are visible, in your face everywhere you drive.
The up-and-to-the-right K-shaped economy dwellers oddly complain as much as those ACTUALLY impacted by the inflation, the down-and-to-the-right toilers.
Things are just crazy but that’s gonna happen when all you do is manufacture and distribute money for decades by borrowing it from the future and giving it mostly to the connected.
The markets are more sanguine than consumer sentiment. Nothing to see here, move along.
….But I’ve never seen bond yields on the long end move so rapidly upward.
Mr. Bessent buying long bonds didn’t do anything but lose money on that portion of the trade.
It gets wackier by the day.
100%
Miles ahead, until the whole shithouse goes up in flames one morning and you’re not.
I just keep thinking about that Method Man clip from the 90s where he says, “The Illuminati is in effect. The Illuminati ain’t nothin but there’s gonna be a 2nd Great Depression in America. Except this time, Corporate America, their money is gonna be safe. All the rest of us who don’t own our own businesses and things of that nature, we’re gonna be killing each other in the streets.”
A kinder gentler version might be, diversify. Become an owner of businesses across the global economy. Maybe that means the kid doesn’t get a stupid catered birthday party he doesn’t need. Maybe you eat peanut butter sandwiches and ramen for some years. OK then. Diversify and keep on doing it. If logging into a brokerage site and buying equities commission-free every month or else killing each other in the streets are the alternatives, I guess I know which I like.
Am I clueless and saying let them eat cake? I can’t tell. I think I’m sincere.
The further the bond market rises the surer stocks are going to be going down.
The obvious reason is why risk anything in stocks if you can start earning 6, 7, 8+% in treasuries.