Another one-month reprieve will solve as much as the last one-month reprieve. For those keeping score, nothing. 
No Breakthrough, Partial Tariff Rollback Anyway
The Wall Street Journal has Live Updates on Tariffs.
One Month Extension
President Trump is granting a one-month exemption for the big three U.S. automakers from tariffs he imposed on Mexico and Canada, the White House said Wednesday. “The president is happy to do it,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
The request came from the heads of Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV, she said.
Trump Rebuffs Canada on Tariffs
President Trump appeared to shut the door on any tariff relief for Canada, saying he has not seen enough action on curbing the flow of fentanyl.
“Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped,” Trump wrote Wednesday on social media.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had raised the prospect of an easing of the 25% tariffs Trump imposed this week on Canadian and Mexican imports. His comments helped stabilize markets, though Trump’s words may throw that back into doubt.
A 25-Percent, 24-Hour Tariff Clown Show
Yesterday, I commented A 25-Percent, 24-Hour Tariff Clown Show, Trump May Roll Back Tariffs Tomorrow
Trump’s tariff nonsense is getting beyond ridiculous.
On Fox News US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says President Trump could roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs as soon as tomorrow.
Erica York at the Tax Foundation responded “It would be better for the economy if the tariffs are short lived, but unfortunately, removal won’t undo all the damage to business relationships, economic activity, and the reliability of the US as a trading partner and place to do business.”
The amusing thing is Trump said yesterday “There’s No room left for negotiations.”
24 hours later, apparently there is. But who knows, by tomorrow maybe there won’t be.
Canada and Mexico Respond With Very Different Rhetoric
Also note, Canada and Mexico Strike Back at Trump’s Tariffs With Very Different Rhetoric
In contrast to Canada, which responded forcibly, Mexico will announce targeted measures Sunday. The delay that suggests Mexico hopes to de-escalate the trade war set off by U.S. President Donald Trump.
President Claudia Sheinbaum said she and Trump had agreed to have a call this week, most likely Thursday, “so we are going to wait.”
An Issue of Trust
Trump has proven he may not honor any deal he signs. That is the unfortunate bottom line, and there will be a huge associated cost.
USMCA was up for renegotiation in June of 2026. But Trump couldn’t wait.
If Trump wanted drugs to be part of the deal, then he should have put drugs in the deal.
Mish Guidelines on Dealing with Trump
Given the total lack of trust anyone can possibly place on Trump honoring any deal, the best approach is along these lines:
1) Tell Trump how brilliant he is, 2) offer him something that costs little but sounds great and lets Trump brag, and then 3) he either takes it or not. 4) Respond accordingly.
What Should Canada Do?
The answer, of course is nothing, but make it sound like something big, just as my guidelines suggest.
Q: Why?
A: There is no point in offering Trump any major concessions because they will never be enough.
Besides, it is clear Trump may not honor any deal he makes anyway. What’s the point in giving concessions to someone willing to break his own treaties ratified 89-10 by Congress?
This is where we are now. And if you are the least bit honest, you will admit that instead of cheering and waving a flag.
It seems Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has figured most of this out. Congratulations!
This clown show has another month-long reprieve, albeit only for autos. Maybe Trump comes to his senses. But don’t count on it.
Trust is destroyed anyway. And that’s irrecoverable.
Related Posts
March 3: Welcome to the Recession, Trump Hits Canada and Mexico with 25 Percent Tariffs
“No room left” for negotiations says Trump.
And now US Commerce Secretary Lutnick seeks negotiation. Fancy that.
March 4, 2025: A Global Trade War Has Started – Global Recession Will Follow
The most significant global trade war since Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression is underway.
Finally, we have not yet felt the hit on small manufacturers do to extremely unwise tariffs.
For discussion, please see How One Small Business Owner Is Coping With Trump’s Tariffs
Fifty-four percent of small businesses polled said that tariffs would negatively affect their companies, while just 11 percent said they would benefit.
Please read the above post and multiply it by tens of thousands of small businesses.
But don’t worry (if you are a farmer), because Republican Senators are ready to bail you out.
Screw the small businesses dependent on steel or aluminum. What a sorry hoot.
Midnight: “It’s only fair. Auto companies need to prepare.”
Ridiculous
They had a 4 months to prepare already.
What’s unquestionably far is for Trump to honor his own USMCA treaty that he proclaimed the “Best trade deal in history”.
Inded and great job Mish!
This all sounds VERY PATHETIC!
WTH, how can real businesses deal and plan with flipflops EVERY DAY!
I KNEW Trump would be insane. Sadly, this exceeds my worst-case scenario.
Completely moronic. You don’t honor deals if your trading partner looks the other way as fentanyl and illegal aliens pour in through your common border.
Why would Donald Trump honor anything as President? Honesty and trustworthiness are not adjectives that have EVER been associated with Donald Trump.
Thanks Mish. BTW this fine piece of analysis below is yet another reason that the so-called “rare earths” deal is a farce. A deal between a non-agreement capable President from the US, and an illegitimate President of Ukraine.
More backing down. What a clown show!
Lutnick now says the US will back off on tariffs on USMCA goods. Which covers 50% of the trade with Canada and Mexico.
In response, Canada says f*ck off. Retaliatory tariffs stay in place until the US drops all this tariff nonsense.
To my knowledge, Donald Trump has never run an enterprise in which he was accountable to a board of independent directors or public shareholders. His business experience has been primarily concentrated in sales and branding, which are inherently transactional businesses. Whenever he has tried to manage a true operating company (e.g., casino, Airline, for-profit University), they have either failed or been shut down by courts. He came to office with no foreign policy experience, public service experience, or formal training in economics. No sane person would look at someone like this, with the aforementioned experience and education, and put that person in charge of the largest superpower nation’s economy and foreign relations.
“Trust is destroyed anyway. And that’s irrecoverable.”
Who wants to make any deals with the USA while QAnon MAGA runs the USA?
I could not copy the link from Bloomberg so I copied the text. I hope that’s okay. Doug Ford sounds like an interesting guy.
Premier Doug Ford says Ontario will “hold our line” on tariffs and retaliation, including removing alcohol from LCBO shelves, until the United States lifts all tariffs on Canada. The comments came hours before the Trump administration announced a one-month tariff delay on auto manufacturers. The car dealers involved include Stellantis, Ford and General Motors. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25 per cent across-the-board tariff on Canadian goods on Tuesday, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy. The federal government then imposed a 25 per cent retaliatory tariff on $30 billion worth of American products, with plans to expand the levies to cover another $125 billion on U.S. goods in 21 days.U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg Wednesday morning that the U.S. government will meet “somewhere in the middle” for adjustments for U.S. tariffs on Canada, with carve-outs for some industries.
During an interview on Newstalk 580 CFRA’s The Morning Rush with Bill Carroll, Ford said the only solution is no tariffs.“If they want to meet us halfway, no,” Ford said Wednesday morning. “There is no halfway. We do not want tariffs on Canadians.”Ontario removed U.S. alcohol from the LCBO in the “first round of retaliation” against the U.S. tariffs, according to Ford. The LCBO sells nearly $1 billion worth of U.S. products every year.
Carroll asked Ford if the Ontario government would put alcohol back on LCBO shelves and end other measures if the U.S. reduced the tariffs. “We hold our line and then we counter-tariff; tariff-for-tariff, dollar-for-dollar,” Ford said. “They want to tariff us for 10 per cent or 15, then they’re getting a tariff. These tariffs do not work. All they do is hurt people in both countries and put uncertainly into the market. We want zero tariffs; we don’t want half the amount of tariffs.”
Ford spoke with Lutnick Tuesday evening after the Ontario government announced its plan to impose a 25 per cent export tax on the electricity it supplies to three U.S. states in response to the tariffs. Sources told CTV News that Lutnick asked Ford to back off on the retaliatory tariffs.“I think they underestimated the strength and the will of the Canadian people,” Ford told Newstalk 580 CFRA.“We’ve hit back extremely hard; they underestimated us, and I just don’t believe in any tariffs whatsoever. When you see the market tank by $3 trillion, and there’s chaos happening, and assembly will shut down in both companies and plants will close down.”Ford says Lutnick and Trump are two smart businesspeople, but “they’ve miscalculated.”“We’re going to keep fighting for the people of Canada, I’m going to protect the people of Ontario every way I can and let’s hope we can get through it,” Ford said.“They need Canada, and we need them, to be very frank.”Ford released a letter he sent to the senators, congressmen, congresswomen and governors in New York, Michigan and Minnesota to inform them about Ontario’s plan to impose a surcharge on electricity if the Trump administration follows through on any more tariffs.Carroll asked Ford if he would turn off the electricity to the three states if the tariff war continues.“It’d be the last resort. The last thing I want to do is cut off their electricity,” Ford said.“It’s unfortunate, but when your country is under attack, and they want to close down plants, take food off people’s tables until they can’t pay their mortgages and rent and the other full economic attack, I’m going to use every tool in our tool kit. I would rather do the opposite; I’d rather send them more electricity, more critical minerals but make no mistake about it, I’m not a bluffer.“When I say I’m going to do something, I get it done and if they start hurting families anywhere in Canada, especially Ontario, the lights are going off.”
Like seriously. How likely is that CA turns of the power? Pretty damn low, so it sounds like Trump isn’t the only one capable of blowing hot air. CA isn’t Russia, dude! If the guy turns off the power, Trump might consider that an act of war.
As I said, Canada’s best strategy is to hit us hard, where it hurts the most. I would take this very seriously.
And remember, if Trump attacks Canada, the rest of Nato is required to defend Canada.
I bet Putin is doing a jig and laughing his ass off.
Thanks for posting this!
Ontario is lucky to have a strong principled leader in Mr. Ford.
Sigh… if only we had one!
After delaying auto tariffs for a month, Trump is now considering delaying tariffs on potash (80% of which is from Canada) and some other agricultural products.
The clown show continues.
MORE INSANTITY. Potash projects exist and export b/e they have economies of scale & size. They are VERY idiosyncratic in terms of size and cost.
This is not an industry one willy-nilly says some other country (US) should do. THAT is just STUPID.
SOME things A rational President should all allow for. Guess we need to elect one.
And what is going to be your excuse, when the auto tariffs arrive?
Excuses? No excuses. I want him to put tariffs on the auto industry, potash, and oil. I want him to put tariffs on everything. I want to see what happens.
But he keeps backing off as the affected interests in the US beg him to stop. First he delayed all tariffs for a month. Then he put them on, but is backing off on autos and potash already. Who knows what’s he will back down from next.
But it only makes him look weak. And like he doesn’t know what he is doing.
Do you want him to put tariffs on everything and see how it works? Give me one example over the last 50 years where a large nation has put up significant trade barriers using tariffs, which has turned out well for the country over the next 10 years regarding economic growth. This tariff “strategy” or tactic has no support in economic theory or real-world practice. This is not an experiment but financial and reputational vandalism from a questionably successful small businessman with no real experience in macroeconomics, public policy, or foreign relations.
Yep. I want him to put tariffs on everything. He talks about tariffs like they are the solution to everything. And his supporters are fully behind him. I say go for it.
Then we will find out. And if it blows up in our face, so be it.
Maybe we will finally learn a lesson.
I get the sentiment, but that recklessness and ignorance of history and economics should be unacceptable to everyone.
How do you know a Russian is lying?
When his mouth is open & sound is coming out.
Ditto Trump.
Trump says he wants an end to the war in Ukraine. He is telling the truth.
British PM Neville Chamberlain, from the bottom of his heart, wanted to avoid a repetition of the horrible Great War. So he handed off the Czechs (who were not invited to the bargaining table) to an aggressor. Soon the aggressor took more bites out of the territory. And that really worked out, didn’t it?
History doesn’t just rhyme, it repeats.
It’s clear now that Trump’s whole plan was to force Ukraine to surrender.
Russia would then finish their genocide.
In Russia, Trump is know as agent Krasnov.
What should Canada do??
Well for one, actual address the fentanyl and lax border policies that the liberals not only enable, but are actually proud of.
The criticisms of Canada atrocious immigration and border security controls, and its drugs controls, ARE true.
Vancouver is the drug capital of the country and one of the leading Canadian banks was actually fined millions for enabled money laundering of Chinese drug money.
These problems in Canada are real.
With regards to free trade though, America actual benefits far more than Canada. Its cheap natural resources that Canada sells America, without which the trade imbalance in America’s favor would be even greater.
Nope.
First. There is very little fentanyl or illegal immigrants coming into the US from Canada. Trump is only using that as an excuse to declare an emergency and break the USMCA.
Second. It isn’t Canada’s responsibility to protect the US border. That is our responsibility. We have the largest military and law enforcement forces in the world. If drugs or illegals are getting across any of our borders, that’s on us. It’s ridiculous to blame someone else.
Third. It’s embarrassing to ask Canada to protect our border, because we are admitting that we are incapable of doing it ourselves.
Fourth. Canada has agreed to spend a lot of money and put more military and border patrols in place. In spite of this, Trump just comes up with another excuse to hit Canada with tariffs. On the plus side for Canada, they may end up stopping more guns and drugs from entering Canada from the US.
Fifth. Even if Trump could somehow stop ALL drugs from getting into the US, the criminal organizations in the US will simply set up more of their own domestic labs to churn out the drugs. It might cost them a bit more, but the users will always pay. This will not stop the problem.
Yes.
The US benefits from our trade with Canada. They sell us oil at $10-$20 less than WTI. What a deal! It would be crazy to put a tariff on that oil. And without that cheap oil, we would be running a large trade surplus with Canada. However, I suspect that surplus will begin to disappear as Canadian consumers and businesses start to avoid US products.
CA consumers are already avoiding US products & travel.
Godspeed to them. Our economy is 7.5X bigger than CA + MX.
They need us way more than we need them.
It’s called economies of scale for a reason.
Be that as it may, I would prefer for Trump to mainly focus on MX vs CA, but my guess is that he’s using CA as a proxy to help ensure MX gets the message.
I have said the same before. In a prolonged trade war, Canada will be hurt far more than the US will. Which is why they are smart to hit back hard, and hit back where it hurts us the most. The sooner this ends, the better it is for them.
They seem to understand this based on their response so far. Trudeau has said there will be no compromise. Doug Ford (Ontario Premier) has said the same thing. They have no intention of dragging this out and meeting the US half-way. If they do that they lose through attrition. Ford has placed a 25% export tax on electricity to three states. And he says he won’t hesitate to turn off the lights if necessary. He is also willing to cut off nickel exports.
I think Quebec is also willing to put an export tax on aluminum to the US. Don’t know if they will stop exports.
Perhaps Saskatchewan will put an export tax on Potash, or cut it off completely.
The big “trump” card is Alberta oil. But I doubt that Alberta will go along with it based on what they said before. They are probably the one province that is unwilling to work with the rest of Canada. Kind of like Texas.
“First. There is very little fentanyl or illegal immigrants coming into the US from Canada. Trump only uses that as an excuse to declare an emergency and break the USMCA.” You are exactly right on this point. Think about it: Trump is purposely using his Executive Power to break a celebrated, mutually beneficial trade agreement that he signed with Mexico and Canada so that he can arbitrarily mess with them using both the threat and implementation of tariffs which violate the deal to get these countries to sign another contract with him. This is idiotic! Why would any country trust that a Donald Trump-led U.S. will honor a treaty or trade agreement? Since his first term, he has broken the Iran Nuclear agreement and the Paris Climate Accord agreement, walked away at the last minute from the Transpacific Partnership, and called into question the U.S.’s commitment to Article 5 of the NATO Alliance. This is not normal, and this all erodes 100 years of trust that the free world had in the U.S.
Yep. No one can trust the US anymore. Our reputation is in the gutter. It’s embarrassing.
So, let’s scrap whole core American industries for a few micro bits of fentanyl from Canada? And just maybe anyway over the Trump family dinner table or at military academy or Wharton they taught something called “personal responsibility for one’s own choices”? Like, per Nancy Reagan, just say no? Rather than driving the US industry and trade and dollar and credibility into a ditch? We once had something legitimately called “conservative.”
Canada has not had a domestically owned auto company for over a century. GM, Ford and Chrysler all operated inefficient Canadian branch plants behind high tariff walls until 1965, when tariffs were removed at the manufacturer’s level but not at the retail level. Large price differences existed between the two countries at the retail level until NAFTA, with the lower prices being available in the US.
Yes. The Auto Pact was signed in 1965. This allowed for the integration of the auto industry in Canada and the US and the elimination of all tariffs for the last 60 years. This led to increased efficiency, reduced production costs, and lower vehicle prices for consumers. It also gave auto companies flexibility when dealing with currency fluctuations. In the last 60 years the Canadian dollar has been as low as 0.60 US and as high as $1.05 US with a lot of variability along the way.
NAFTA added Mexico and an even larger North American integrated auto industry. This has taken decades to create. It will take decades to undo it. And it will result in higher costs.
“This led to increased efficiency, reduced production costs, and lower vehicle prices for consumers.”
This hasn’t been the case for at least 5 years. I’m certainly not saying it’s CA’s fault, but let’s be honest. Vehicles are largely not affordable.
And it is estimated that Trump’s tariffs will raise vehicle prices by another $8000 to $12000.
And I’m fine with that, mainly because I won’t be buying a new car.
Ford / GM / Stallantis need an excuse to cut costs big time both on production & all the unsold cars sitting on their dealers’ lots.
Trump will give them one hopefully.
Without intrinsic trust, as Mish is pointing out here, we will get mired down in lip-flap bullshit.
This is similar to Obama’s “Change you can COUNT ON.”
We have a US President who takes phone calls, being capable of making a decision, and that gets everybody’s dander up.
Rejoice, Pudding head is no longer installed in W.H.
It would seem Trump has learned the value of disruption.
It isnt just a tariff clown show. It is a full clown show on display. But the truth is Trump didn’t win the popular vote again. More people voted for others on the ballot. This is tyranny of the minority again. Trump will destroy what’s left of America because that’s what he is great at. Who goes bankrupt in the casino business? Trump ! Trump is trash.
I wish you would quit flattering our President!
Trump keeps increasing the option value of waiting to invest. No company will go ahead with investments that can be postponed given the uncertainty and chaos Trump has created. Get ready for postponable investments spending to plunge over the next few quarters, both here in the US and abroad.
I raised my cash position substantially after Trump was elected. I did the same thing before his first term. When you have a president who is so unpredictable, it’s important to have cash and flexibility.
I now day-trade a much larger percentage of my portfolio. Loving the volatility.
As long as the dollar holds up, right? Which is becoming debatable. Wait until the big guy tries to take over the Fed and lower interest rates.
The dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry pile. It is not a very good currency. But it’s better than all the others.
The fed may be lowering interest rates anyway, if the economy starts to tank from all Trump’s tariff threats and DOGE layoffs.
Good for you. I sold out of last week as well.
I wasn’t that smart. I raised my cash position to 50%. But I’m okay with that.
so, canada has added 25% tariffs across the board? that would mean that tariff on US egss goes from 240% to 265%? tariff on US cars from 45% to 70%?
or is it a 25% increase on existing tariffs?
You guys will get no eggs. No you never got any before now. Nothing is changed.
Nope. It’s Trump who wants 25% tariffs across the board, except for 10% on Canadian oil. Canada will start with 25% tariffs on $30 billion of US goods at first. They will extend that to another $125 billion in US goods in 3 weeks time. Rather than going across the board, Canada is trying to target specific US goods that would hurt us the most. Tariffs on $155 billion US goods in total is less than 40% of the $400+ billion that Canada imports from the US each year.
The USMCA has no tariffs on US eggs as long as they don’t exceed 3.6% of Canadian market sales. However, I doubt if Canadians will buy US eggs now that we have pissed them off.
And there were no existing tariffs on US cars going to Canada. But a new 25% tariff will now be applied in response to Trump’s tariffs.
I hope that helps.
The Trump clown show continues.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-white-house-trying-to-engineer-a-recession-this-wall-street-pro-explains-the-vision-fb3b4106
Yep, I’d much prefer to see millions or extra public servants sucking at the teat.
You might as we continue to fall into a depression the CCC and WPA may return.
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey asked the DOJ to investigate whether Biden’s cognitive mental decline allowed unelected officials to make decisions without his knowledge or approval.
If that’s the case, Biden’s executive orders, pardons, and other actions, may be unconstitutional and void.
Keep reaching back for excuses.
I’m wondering if this auto extension allows them to pack more clowns into the same tiny car. Or, maybe not.
Nonsense is with you!!
So aito execs again tell Trump what everyone hs been saying for months, that 25% triffs on autos will kill our auto industry and now he sees the light.
he really is a terrible negotiator. Canada and mexico should call his bluff and let the tariffs run for a few months. Trump ca’t stomach a 3% pullback on markets.
there’s only so many times you can make the same threats. if tariffs are so great then why not actually let them run for a bit? that’s right because everyone knows they’re idiotic.
I was really hoping that Trump would go full speed ahead and implement his tariffs on everyone and everything right away. Then we would be able to see if they would accomplish everything he said they would: bring back manufacturing and jobs, pay off the deficit and debt, eliminate the need for income taxes, and make us all rich.
Instead we have this clown show of announcements and threats, followed by retractions and grace periods. The problem is that this is already messing with the economy without the benefit of collecting any tariffs. The worst possible strategy.
This is what was expected. He obviously doesn’t know what to do, and he will keep flipping levers like the man behind the curtain in Wizard of Oz because in his mind he knows he is the greatest wizard who ever lived.
It’s still a science experiment, just a different one from the one you wanted. There’s still information to be learned from it, like how much pain and uncertainty the electorate will tolerate.
Good. Less tax receipts and faster path to economic crash. My prediction is its gonna feel like 2009 at some point but without QE.
You presume there is NOT an end plan because you can’t see it. Obviously, you want everything laid out in advance. so plans can be made well in advance. Is that how they play professional football or baseball? Chess? Poker? War?
What if the goal is to precipitate a crash? Why would that be a goal?
Someone here said the same thing a few weeks ago. Or was that you?
Trump is deliberately causing a recession now, so the economy will be recovering in time to win the mid-term elections.
What a brilliant plan!
I guess that is standard Republican strategy. Because they always have a recession. 4D chess! Clearly, that is beyond by ability to comprehend.
Clinton had a recession just after Bush Jr. took office. Greenspan had raised the interest rate to 6.5% into May 2000 and the S&P peaked in March 2000, leading into the recession in March 2001.
Yes. You have mentioned that many times. I don’t care. The reality is that the 2001 recession started under Bush. As did the 2008 Great Recession. Two terms. Two recessions. I wonder if Trump will be 2 for 2 as well. Gotta keep the streak going. If he manages to override things and make himself President for life, he can go after Eisenhower’s record of 3 recessions. Or maybe 4!
Bush caused the dotcom bubble. Got it!
Bush caused the housing bubble. Got it!
Trump caused COVID. Got it!
Trump will cause the mother of all bubbles to pop. Got it!
In all of these cases, the ensuring recession had less to do with what the president & his administration was doing than external forces. Certainly, if a recession arrives in Trump’s FINAL term, then I’m more than willing to accept the fact that tariffs may push the economy over the edge.
Be that as it may, WE’VE BEEN WAITING FOR A RECESSION FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, so at some point, one is going to finally rear its ugly head.
As for Trump on again / off again tariffs, the last I checked they’re full on with China. And they’re mostly on MX & CA with a few exceptions. Um, PapaD, that’s a crap ton of tariffs, so let’s stop acting like NOTHING is happening. Trump doesn’t want to crash the US auto industry. And to boot, there are 10K MX troops roaming the southern border helping reduce illegal immigration to an all-time low.
I call that a lot of winning, at least in terms of what Trump said he was going to do. In addition, this has all taken place within 6 weeks of his arrival.
MAGA! (Which BTW doesn’t happen overnight)
Just the facts Jay. Every Republican President since 1920 has had a recession begin on his watch, vs 3 Democrats. Republicans have had 14 of the 18 recessions since 1920. Eleven out of twelve recessions since 1950.
The last Democrat to have a recession begin on their watch was Carter in 1980. Just 45 years ago.
Of course, some here will say that is all part of brilliant Republican strategy to help them win the next election.
Regarding tariffs, I am with you on that. I hope we get a lot more of them. I want to see Trump prove that they will MAGA. Then we will be able to see if Trump is correct. I pay a crap load of income taxes and I would love to see them eliminated with tariff income.
Okay. Here are some FACTS as well. There is something called timing, and your argument ignores anything Dems were doing to strangle or lead the economy into a recession prior to a Republican taking office.
FACT: The dotcom bubble was caused by excessive spending on all things technology which created absurd valuations. I am not aware of any anything overt that the Bush administration did to cause the dotcom bubble to burst.
FACT: The Great recession was caused by lax lending standards & the derivatives market that were instituted WAY before W arrived on the scene. Again, Bush didn’t do anything overt to cause the housing crises that sparked the biggest recession in modern times.
FACT: The COVID recession was caused by COVID. Trump didn’t have anything to do with this. AND THE SCARY THING IS THAT CHINA MAY HAVE LET COVID LOSE AS A MEANS OF ENSURING TRUMP WAS NOT RE-ELECTED. THAT’S VERY PLAUSIBLE & SHOWS HOW MUCH OF AN ENEMY CHINA MAY BE.
So in a FACTs based reply, you continue to resort to sarcasm:
I would love to see them eliminated with tariff income.
You know very well that tariffs aren’t going to eliminate taxes. Just get over it and stop acting like Trump is the only politician to exaggerate cause & effect.
How many bags of popcorn have you popped so far?
Here’s some more facts Jay.
Of the 14 Republican recessions, 8 were preceded by other Republican administrations.
Only 3 happened within 2 years of a Democratic administration ending.
Of the 4 Democratic recessions, 3 were preceded by Republican administrations.
And I am really enjoying this show. Lots of popcorn. Thanks!
riiiight, it’s just too brilliant for our normal minds to comprehend the 9 dimesional chess Trump is playing. Except Trump is playing dementional chess. No front-lobe interference from brain-stem fart to 24-hour “policy”.
“I was really hoping that Trump would go full speed ahead and implement his tariffs on everyone and everything right away.”
And then you woke up from your dream.
Dare to dream Jay.
Ontario premier Doug Ford now wants to cut off nickel exports to the US in addition to electricity exports.
We currently get 50% of our nickel from Canada. They can sell it to Europe instead.
Trump’s brain reflex: Time for 10,000% tariffs
That is talk, along with the energy. There is no chance Canada cuts off vital energy. This is all unwanted bluster. It is getting very old. If we are going a new way in North America, so be it and work with it (I am of the newly converted). Alex Krainer explains some of it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO7bhSRGhoI
How old is it? A couple of weeks? And certainly not something they ever mentioned before. And it isn’t all energy; just electricity from Ontario so far. And it is in response to Trump deciding to break his best ever trade agreement and knife the Ontario premier in the back. Maybe this guy is seriously pissed off enough to follow through.
Our resident bull dog. No chance Canada impacts American families directly at home with energy threats.
Cut off a strategic metal? Very unlikely, not going to happen. No reason for it.
Okay then. You probably understand the Ontario premier better than I do.
I have heard rumors that the Canadian lumber industry will have to build their trees in the US to avoid tariffs.
We already have a 14.5% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber. For many years now.
Did you notice Canadian and China tariff retaliation were aligned, or was that my imagination?
Nope. Didn’t notice. Can you provide a bit of evidence?
I would have expected Canada and Mexico to work together on this since they are both part of USMCA. But I would not have expected Canada and China to align their efforts.
Ford should do the right thing, travel to China and sign up some big Chinese auto maker to set up manufacturing in Ontario. Long term insurance against this bs.
Probably a good idea.
Lots of nickel in Australia. Trust me on this.
Yep. The US can get their nickel from Australia. They produce 160,000 metric tons per year. Or Indonesia, which produces 1,800,000 metric tons per year.
Why bother with Canada and Mexico now? We are bound by geography and the US will never lose that. Much bigger fish to fry in Europe and Russia. The goal should be to quietly and politely, and unpunishingly, break the cross Atlantic post war alliance of the past. Canada is still not on board, tariffs and harassment have and will continue to delay that goal. Proof in the polling numbers Mish showed already.
“Politely”? You must be Canadian 🙂
It seems the only bussiness prepared for Trump’s tariffs were fentanyl dealers!!
Sounds like Canada leaving northern states in the dark has more leverage over the US than the other way around.
Indeed. Surprised Trump & his handler haven’t thought of that.
I don’t mind paying higher prices if that makes the president happy. Me buying a car: “Can you charge me?” LOL
This is ridiculous. Do it or don’t do it. This weakness is gross.
Trump is having his cake & eating it too…
Cake Nutzi says “No cake for you”.
zelensky is taking same approach you suggest with putin and trump as he does not trust putin’s word, deal.
No he isn’t. He antagonized Trump by demanding more, not offering more
If Zelensky had a brain. he would’ve wisecracked, ‘you’re a better business man than I am,”
Then, gone on to suggest other economic investments with an advantage for the US. Eg. make Ukraine a neutral zone for trade as well as defense. Infrastructure projects. etc. The bigger the US foothold in Ukraine, the less he needs guarantees.
Some people have limits when it comes to brown nosing. Zelensky was obviously pushed beyond his limit. It looks like most Republicans have no limits. I wonder how the whole experience smells in their noses.
Republican rank and file are plain stupid, Republican leaders are cowards, Trump is just insane. 90M eligible citizens didn’t vote in 2024 what does that tell us?
Not a big fan of tariffs … but a quick view of the tariffs Canada has on American goods does it make it clear that this is not a bad guy (Trump) and a good guy (Trudeau). I can’t embed a picture (that I can see) … but a few of the good ones:
Milk: 270%
Cheese: 245%
Butter: 298%
Pultry: 238%
A little context is helpful. If (as I think they are) the long range plan is to use tariffs to remove tariffs … then it is a short term pain for a long term gain. Lowering tariffs on both sides (if doable) is a plus.
Yup. I’m a big fan of reciprocal tariffs in particular. Fair is fair.
I’m not a fan of eternal reciprocal tariffs. I certainly hope that the result is lowering or eliminating tariffs on both sides. We shall see.
Pure idiocy to let other nations set US trade policy!
Reciprocal tariffs do just that.
Yet what are other countries doing to our tariffs? They are responding with their own. You would have them do nothing. Chicken or the egg question
So your view is that if a country closes its markets … we should do nothing and let the US businesses that sold heavily into those markets suffer? Would you take any action? I don’t think that there is a perfect action … and I don’t think reciprocal tariffs are harmless … but moving everyone towards low or no tariffs seems a viable goal.
Tariffs are taxes. On regular people. There is nothing fair about some carpetbagger bureaucrat deciding what items you will pay more for. Especially considering how corrupt governments are and unaccountable government depts are.
A tariff is the opposite of fair.
And yet here we are. And USA has the least tariffs on any developed country. Yet others on us are massive.
Trump aims to change this.
MAGA!
Let’s assume Trump’s goal is free markets without tariffs or subsidies. How do you get there?
a) By letting other countries take advantage of you
b) By taking advantage of other countries.
c) creating a situation where free trade is to every country’s advantage
So, you deem unfair that only the Canadians pay more for staples? MAGA!
I don’t even understand your post
MAGA!
Sweet, projecting your stupidity.
Yep. A little context is helpful. When Trump negotiated the USMCA trade deal, he got access to a set percentage of Canada’s Dairy and Poultry markets. Anything over that percentage quota was subject to tariffs. Now he wants to break that deal, which he called the best ever trade deal.
For example:
Under USMCA, Canada agreed to eliminate tariffs on dairy imports up to a set volume, called a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ), covering an amount equivalent to 3.6% of the Canadian market. Imports that exceed that total would revert to the existing tariffs.
Thanks for covering that PD.
My pleasure. Though I would have loved to have seen the result of Trump breaking the USMCA and actually putting all these tariffs in place at the beginning of Feb. What a great real-world economic experiment!
Instead we have this clown show of constant announcements and retractions within hours or days. However, the constant threat of tariffs is already having an effect. US businesses are delaying investment decisions. And we have knifed our best friend, Canada, in the back. They are already moving away from us as we are no longer an honest and reliable trading partner.
As I mentioned earlier, the premier of Ontario wants to ban nickel exports to the US now as well as electricity exports.
Interesting concept. Pretty low quantity (3.6%). Seems like tariffs light … but not very light. The tariffs after that are reminiscent of what Japan used to have (I remember their embarrassment with the girl scout cookie debacle). It seems like TRQ complicates the tariff equation … but doesn’t make it much better (unless the TRQs are much higher than 3.6%).
Yep. I don’t pretend to understand the rationale behind giving the US access to just 3.6% of their dairy market, but that is what was agreed to in Trump’s best ever trade deal. And I am in favor of honoring our trade deals.
Of course, this is all about fentanyl, right? Or is it about Canada’s dairy and poultry market? Or is it about Canada’s banks. Or their Nato spending. Or their rare earths? Or oil? Or about them becoming the 51st state?
Who the f*ck knows when dealing with someone who has a different story and changes their mind every 3 minutes. How do you negotiate with crazy? Why even bother, since crazy will never keep their word?
Canada has had a supply management policy for dairy products, poultry and eggs since about 1972. The US has known about it all along. It is not as if it was just implemented at the beginning of 2025.
Correct. And Trump negotiated access to a small amount (3.6%) of that market in the USMCA.
All the above ; )
Yep. And probably ten more things before this is done. He probably didn’t like the way that Melania looked longingly at Justin. Or that Canada has turned it’s back on Gretzky. Who knows when you are dealing with Trump.
Our food sucks and our farming sucks. I don’t blame Canucks for not wanting it, but that’s more about explaining corporate farming and letting customers decide whether they want it or not.
Even if we got access to more than 3.6% of the Canadian dairy market, Canadians are so pissed off at us, that they would never buy our dairy products now anyway. I bet we won’t even be able to sell them that 3.6% from this point forward. It’s a poor strategy to knife your customer in the back.
Agreed, a better strategy would be to remove tariffs and let these industries compete. Unless Canada believes that Canadian milk products are of strategic importance and they need to protect nascent industries.
I guess I’m a horrible American when I buy Irish or New Zealand butter. And parmasean cheese. From Parma!!
The horror.
Yes. No tariffs would be great. The USMCA is scheduled to be re-negotiated next year. Perhaps that could be a goal worth achieving in the next negotiation. However, why would they bother to negotiate with us if we won’t keep our word?
We can’t keep our word because we have no national strategy that serves anything but monied interests. See the GMO corn kerfuffle with Mexico from December for a relevant, recent example. The avarice in DC is bottomless.
A national strategy would be nice. Though it’s hard to imagine that coming from Trump. He may talk “MAGA”, but when you change your mind every 3 minutes, it’s hard to have a long-term strategy.
Also, I suspect a long-term strategy would require some co-operation between the two parties. Which will never happen.
“A national strategy would be nice.”
Now we’ve found something we can agree on. Pieces of it are there, but he’s not selling effectively it to the US, especially with DOGE.
There should be targets:
X number of illegals to be deported
X number of Americans to take of some of said deported illegals jobs in industries like residential construction
X $$ in tariff revenue
X $$ in US-based investment to create manufacturing jobs
X $$ to be saved by cutting spending
X amount of US oil / natural gas production
X date for SMRs to come on line
The list could go on & on.
I am a big fan of what we used to call “success criteria”. I believe Biden truly was as clueless as he appeared and I’m not sure who the puppet masters were … but looking at USAID expenditures, it appears they were hell-bent on global sociatal change and too busy to worry about US economy. I wonder if Trump has values for these but … in his goal to always have the upper hand at negotiations … won’t make them public.
“The USMCA is scheduled to be re-negotiated next year.”
I didn’t know that. Maybe it has something to do with Trump’s full court press?
“Why would they bother to negotiate with us if we won’t keep our word?”
Simple: the US economy is almost 15X that of CA’s.
If you’re going to put your best America First foot forward, this may mean you break some trade deals which according to Google happens with pretty good frequency.
Yes. That was a big concession that Trump got from Canada and Mexico in the USMCA. Renegotiation every 6 years. NAFTA had no such renegotiating provision. Yet Trump couldn’t wait another year and decided to break his deal early.
Now, how can anyone trust him again? What’s the point in negotiating at all? Canada and Mexico are better to look elsewhere for trade deals. Hopefully with countries who will honor their agreements.
Time will tell if this will MAGA. But I’m thinking NO.
Nothing new. Farmers are protected, period.
these are limited uses of tariffs to protect domestic industries of Canada that hve outside meaning for Canada. Not across the board tariffs.
if Trump cares about this, he can have reciprocal tariffs on dairy and poultry.
Also, you’re making arguments Trump hasn’t made. he says this is about fentanyl and you’re citing cheese.
The US has a tariff-quota policy on imported sugar to protect its sugar growers.
Perhaps Trudeau will offer to buy Wisconsin.
Is the virus is killing the egg market in Canada?
Apparently there is very little bird flu in Canada. I asked AI about it:
No, egg prices in Canada have remained stable compared to the U.S. despite an avian flu outbreak, in part due to Canada’s supply management system.
Explanation
Impact in the U.S.
In contrast, the U.S. has seen a devastating avian flu outbreak that has caused egg prices to skyrocket. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that egg prices will continue to rise in 2025.
So it’s Ok for the US to dump their surplus cheese into Canada?
In 2024 US Government Has 1.4B Pounds of Cheese Stockpiled.The same is true for all other dairy products.
Somethings need protection. Diary is one of them.
So you’re proTariffs … but only for Canada?
Can you imagine the first 100 days if Word Salad Harris and Tampon Tim were elected so Obama could have his 4th term?
Those “missing” 11,000,000 Biden voters in 2020 are somewhere in the ancient COBOL program, like the Universal Pictures Mummy in the sarcophagus..
Trump is more bark than bite. He changes his mind more often than most change his or her socks.
Once a week is good enough. You can also flip your underwear inside out to get a couple more days out of them.
It’s only fair. Auto companies need to prepare.
“It’s only fair. Auto companies need to prepare.”
Ridiculous
They had a 4 months to prepare already.
They needed 7 months.
If you think Auto companies can bring back parts production to the US in another 2 months, you are only nuts.
No question. It’s to mitigate the disruption. Remember tariffs don’t mean you can’t get something. It means you pay up.
“And by the way, we’re gonna have growth in the auto industry like nobody’s ever seen. Plants are opening up all over the place. Deals are being made, never seen. That’s a combination of the election win and tariffs. It’s a beautiful word, isn’t it? That along with our other policies will allow our auto industry to absolutely boom. It’s gonna boom. Spoke to the majors today, all three, the top people and they’re so excited.”
Which is more likely, the top auto people changed their minds on tariffs overnight? Or Trump was talking out of his ass last night?
That Johnny Cash song.
Maybe you need to re-evaluate your love for Republicanism and especially Trump Republicanism, which means we are just game pieces on a board, and he sits on his bed playing with all of us until we finally get tired and say over and over again how incredible and amazing he is, cause the rest means nothing to him.
Can’t judge anything about tariffs until you see the resulting policy changes. I don’t like everything he does. I’m not in favor of his Gaza idea at all.
Mish – if you say car companies can’t bring parts production back to the US quickly (which i agree), then you can’t say giving them an extra month to prepare is wrong. Extra time is less tariff cost for car cos… since there is nothing they could have done either way (4 v 7 months). Yes Trump loses credibility on timing, but this is an on going negotiation, so it’s all in flux anyway. If you continue to rail against the back and forth of Trump’s open style, you start looking silly in not understanding it.
Best trade deal in history got ruined by the Biden administration. So it can still be the best at that time and need change now….
Lol!
Trump negotiated the USMCA.
Biden didn’t change the USMCA.
And now Trump is breaking the USMCA that he originally negotiated and signed.
I will have to use ‘it’s only fair’ in my next big ticket negotiation and see if it works. I bet it won’t.
If it is fair it should work
The only time I have heard ‘it’s not fair’ in a negotiation is when my teen kids use that phrase.