Estimates vary but the biggest chunk is locked up in China.
Frozen Assets
The U.S. blocked several countries from paying for oil purchases, money that Tehran now wants back to permanently end the war.
The Wall Street Journal discusses Where Iran’s Billions of Dollars in Frozen Assets Are Held
Iran is entering negotiations with the Trump administration with an eye on a big prize: tens of billions of dollars locked abroad that could help revive its crisis-hit economy.
Some of the assets have been frozen for nearly as long as the Islamic Republic, which dates to the 1979 revolution, has existed. But the blocked assets are mostly more recent payments for Iran’s oil sales to China, India, South Korea and Japan—money got stuck when President Trump withdrew from the Obama administration’s nuclear accord and reinstated sanctions on Iran in 2018.
Estimates of how much Iranian assets abroad are worth vary, with Tehran saying it is at least $100 billion. Other experts put it much lower. Tehran’s priority is to unblock an initial $24 billion in phases.
Estimates by Country
- China: China has long been the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, and estimates of Tehran’s frozen assets there range from $20 billion to $50 billion.
- IRAQ: $15 billion. Iraq is a major buyer of electricity and natural gas from Iran, its neighbor, but U.S. restrictions have long prevented Baghdad from paying for the services.
- INDIA: $7 billion. Before Trump pulled out of the Obama-era nuclear deal, India was Iran’s second-largest oil buyer. The Trump administration’s sanctions forced Indian banks to withhold payments for the purchases of Iranian crude.
- SOUTH KOREA: $7 billion. Like India and China, South Korea was a major oil customer of Iran’s before the first Trump administration imposed sanctions. Much of the $7 billion frozen there was later transferred to Qatar as part of a prisoner exchange with the U.S.
- QATAR: $6 billion. The U.S. reversed course after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. Washington still hasn’t allowed Qatar to transfer the funds, which were meant to be used only for humanitarian purposes. Current negotiations focus heavily on granting Iran access to these funds.
- OTHERS: $8 billion. Iranian assets are also held in Japan, Luxembourg, Oman and even the U.S.
What the Journal Gets Wrong
The U.S. is able to stop countries from paying Iran for oil because almost all global oil deals are transacted in dollars.
That’s complete silliness. Nothing stops Iran from conducting transactions in other currencies.
The article even noted “Iran has been able to tap some of these funds to purchase Chinese machinery and auto spare parts, among other things.”
Iran buying items from China accounts for the wide range of frozen assets in China from $20 billion to $50 billion.
Other than using yuan, it’s difficult for Iran to avoid dollar payment systems. That accounts for frozen assets, not oil priced in dollars.
It’s US sanction threats on other countries that has kept all countries in line except for China.
Vance Tries to Explain $300 Billion to Iran
Understanding the Terminology
Neither Obama nor Trump did/will give US taxpayer money to Iran.
Trump will free up hundred of billions more than Obama counting restoration funds and unfreezing of assets.
Obama vs Trump Numbers
CBS correspondent Ed O’Keefe asked Vance point-blank whether Iran would have access to a $300 BILLION reconstruction fund. Vance’s answer? Essentially yes — “funded by the Gulf Coast coalition so long as they honor their end of the obligation.”
So let’s do the math that the Trump administration desperately doesn’t want you to do. Let’s compare Trump’s Iran deal to the one Republicans spent a DECADE calling the worst deal in American history — Barack Obama’s.
OBAMA’S IRAN DEAL:
- $1.7 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets
- In exchange for a 98% reduction in Iran’s uranium stockpile
- And strict limits capping enrichment at 3.7%
TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL:
- $24 BILLION in unfrozen assets and cash
- A $300 BILLION reconstruction fund
- Lifted sanctions
- In exchange for an “opened Strait” under Iran and Oman’s control
Read those numbers again. Trump is handing Iran roughly FOURTEEN TIMES the unfrozen cash Obama did — plus a $300 billion reconstruction windfall — after starting a war that nobody wanted, spiking gas prices, and killing the existing ceasefire because he found negotiations “boring.” AND the deal just kicks what happens with Iran’s uranium stockpile to future negotiations!
Republicans screamed for YEARS that Obama “gave Iran billions” and “appeased the mullahs.” They called his deal treasonous. They tore it up. And now their guy is giving Iran an order of magnitude MORE money for a far weaker arrangement.
But here’s the part Vance accidentally revealed. He warned that Iranian hardliners would “over-emphasize the benefits that Iran gets while under-emphasizing all the things they have to concede.”
That’s PROJECTION. Because it’s the TRUMP administration that’s been over-emphasizing the “wins” while burying the $24 billion, the $300 billion fund, the lifted sanctions, and the fact that the strategic Strait would fall under Iranian and Omani control. Vance is accusing Iran of doing EXACTLY what his own administration is doing — hiding the real terms of the deal from the public.
The man who promised to be tougher than Obama on Iran just handed Tehran the biggest payday in its history — after dragging America into a war first.
$1.7 billion versus $324 billion. That’s the difference between Obama’s “terrible” deal and Trump’s “great” one.
Was This a Good Deal?
Compared to what is the correct question. It’s horrible compared to the deal Obama negotiated.
It’s poor compared to the deal Iran agreed to before Trump stupidly started the war.
The warmongers will disagree, but compared to dragging things on endlessly with oil reserves at strategically low levels, Trump made the correct call to wave the white flag of surrender.
Trump had little choice and looks like a fool because of it. But surrender was the best he could do given where he was at.
The speculation will as soon as the deal is signed, hopefully Friday. Then we will know for sure what’s been agreed to.
Fitting, in so many ways:
“In an unusual gesture, Macron has invited Trump to dinner at the Palace of Versailles outside Paris after the summit winds down ….”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/im-boss-trump-tells-g7-102500632.html
Commander in Chief
DOOCY: Why not stick around for the signing ceremony of this Iran peace deal?
TRUMP: I might. But this is a memorandum of understanding. It might not be the kind of document I should be signing. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.
One good thing about Trump is he often says the quiet part out loud
Another example of Trump speaking the truth out loud, from the WSJ:
Of course, he may end up being the next Hoover if the deal falls apart. You would think he would have waited until the deal is done before admitting this to the Iranians.
“DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s top diplomat said Tuesday that the tentative deal to end the war with the United States would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon — a condition Israel has already rejected and that could sink the agreement, leading to the resumption of all-out war. …”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-says-the-deal-to-end-the-war-with-the-u-s-requires-israel-to-withdraw-from-lebanon
That is literally yesterday’s news…we shall see if Iran signs the deal or not. As I have said, I think they will.
Trump when asked today about the murder of 160 girls at an Iranian school: “nobody did that on purpose…As you know, it’s under investigation – it’s such a strange question to be asked,” he said, adding: “What about the thousands of soldiers they blew up?”
No difference between soldiers and little girls in battle, according to Trump.
Israel is violating this agreement continuously in Lebanon. Here is what I think Iran will do.
Iran will continue to complain to the US that they are violating the MoU by not preventing Israel from bombing Lebanon. Still, Iran signs the deal anyway on Friday, and banks the immediate deliveries of US obligations, including $12B+ release of frozen funds, unlimited ability to fill and sell tankers of oil, etc. After the tankers have loaded up with oil and left the strait, and after Iran has received the money and anything else promised upon signing, they will either (a) formally declare the US in breach of the agreement and threaten to terminate the deal unless the US fixes their breaches of the MoU within 24 or 48 hours; or (b) bomb Israel until it retreats from Lebanon, arguing that if Israel is not part of the deal it does not violate the MoU for Iran to bomb Israel.
‘Deal not final’: Trump changes tune on Iran, threatens to ‘drop bombs’, go back to shooting again
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/trump-changes-tune-iran-deal-not-final-dropping-bombs-shooting-tehran-doesnt-behave-war-g7-meet-france-101781696130479.html
Its hard to understand the optimism in the energy markets right now.
Shocker.
Three hundred billion dollars. Ten times what Germany paid after WWI, six times what Iraq paid Kuwait. Now that is what I call art of the deal.
For every $1 billion dollars, Iran can buy 25,000 drones that cost $40,000 each.
$10 billion = 250,000 drones.
$100 billion = 2.5 million drones. oh my!
Wonder how much those patriot missiles would cost to intercept. I wonder about a lot of things….
musical tribute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkgkThdzX-8&list=RDYkgkThdzX-8&start_radio=1
Wonder how much those patriot missiles would cost to intercept.
Thats all part of the plan. The defense industry will need $trillions to build enough missile defense systems
Rather, it was a just deal with a country which was wantonly attacked without provocation.
Cue the Epstein files to arrive in public view.
Hope so. Let the chips fall where they may
“… Then we will know for sure what’s been agreed to.”
Are you sure?
I seem to recall a comment about (my paraphrase) “… we’ll know what is in the tax bill after it passes” – Is there a reason this deal would be different?
The tax bill was not that great either.
The fact that Trump is trying so desperately to keep the text of such a epochal victory secret indicates that the victory is not as overwhelming as advertised.
As it is, The Files won’t be necessary to make Trump come to heel. Simply pointing out the fact that Trump is a loser will do just as well.
It is ALWAYS “Smoke and Curtains” with TrumpCO. If it were not so corrupt, it would be entertaining.
I no longer Find Trump funny except when he Name Calls. Yesterday he said: “NewSCUM.”
Newscum is LESS tolerable than Trump by a MM.
NewSCUM is way better than Trump. So sorry you’re too brainwashed to see it.
Israel really should be who pays for this after giving terrible “intelligence” and military advice to Trump.
Ultimately Trump is responsible for this. Israel has tried to get every president to attack Iran; only Trump was stupid enough not to fall for it.
Trump chose to believe Israel over his own hand-picked advisors who told him it was foolish.
Israel should be scrapped for parts.
Trump made a bad deal? What were you expecting?
He couldn’t put boots on the ground.
He couldn’t nuke them.
His weapons supply was becoming a problem.
He couldn’t let oil prices go higher any longer.
He had the mid-terms coming up.
The rest of the world was basically screaming at him to end this war.
So he folded up like a Walmart tent. I think the US is less safe now than it was before this war started. Iran is much stronger financially now and it has proven that the straight gives it a lot of leverage going forward.
If Iran never intended to make a nuclear weapon but enriched the Uranium in order to provide leverage to end the sanctions their leaders were indeed playing 3d chess against checker playing Trump.
Probably the biggest SNAFU in US history.
Thank you Donald. You will no doubt be on Iran’s Christmas card list.
Now about Epstein…..
Peace in our time, or not–just a “negotiating framework” (?), just a “wish list” (?), just a “distraction” (?), just a shiny media bauble of a “birthday gift” (?)
So what the hell is the “signing ceremony” for?
Q: “Is the text of the agreement now final?”
Trump: “No, it’s not final. It’s a memorandum of understanding. If I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”
This reaffirms the most massive sale: Trump’s fake sale to the American people of who and what he is. But his facts-casual irresponsibility does deeper, assuring that even HE cannot form an accurate picture of himself, or crucial facts, to himself or others. Allowing for plenty of BS from Dems, big time, in very genuinely disturbing ways, with Trump, it is all spin, all the way down. The foolishness of the American people percolated to the GOP in Congress, all of whom sold out, or were sold out. This leaves me with no comfort in any direction.
Yup scumbag republicans spent decades complaining about everything Obama and it turns out he did everything better.
I guess that’s why Trump thinks democrats are better for the economy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™
If Trump’s Iran ‘deal’ is so good, why aren’t the details public?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGwi-7KoPbk
Lol. “Doing a Marshall plan for Germany while the Nazis are in power…”
Yup, that’s what Trump calls winning.
So how does that work, exactly? The oil buyers aren’t shippng pallets of currency to Iran, nor gold or metals. It’s just bank-to-bank keystrokes, in’t it?
Iran has to finish one most important duty.
Cut the tie between US and Israel. If not, Israel will continue committing genocide and occupying neighbouring countries. It will be good for US as not assisting genocide.
So I think –
To be continued.
Iran’s insistence on ending Israel’s killing in Lebanon is like chemo on the tumor that is Israel. It remains to the US to cut the tumor off or let the tumor take over the host.
The tumor took over the host a long time ago.
Absolutely! If one effect of this disastrous war is to break the absolute control of Israel over US foreign policy it will be worth every dollar spent.
Israel sees the handwriting on the wall and is currently trying to burrow into US intelligence and weapons development infrastructure in ways that will be difficult to reverse. Israel’s, bought-and-paid-for, whores in Congress are trying to amend the US Defense budget to:
“expand and enhance intelligence sharing with Israel, including “information relating to cybersecurity threats, terrorism, sanctions evasion, plans and intentions of state and nonstate actors, adversarial technology proliferation, missile threats, unmanned aerial systems, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, air and space domain awareness, and other aerial threats relevant to the defense of Israel, United States forces and interests in the region, and regional security partners.”
Our fealty to Israel has been the cause of every military and diplomatic disaster the US has suffered in the Middle East for the last 60 years. Its high time to put America first.
Its BB’s fault.
Totally his fault.
TACO needs scapegoat.
Mish, you consistently said Trump will fold and agree to a bad deal. Here we are. This is one of the reasons I read your blog. You make the correct call on issues that matter.
Yep, Iran gave up absolutely nothing. Besides all the concessions that the US will grant them, Iran also has seen in practice that they do indeed have the ability to close the Strait and to destroy the entire Gulf’s infrastructure, which is arguably a more powerful weapon than the nuclear bomb that Trump was allegedly trying to stop them from acquiring. The icing on the cake is that now the IRGC, before just one power player in Iranian politics, is now fully in charge of the country and will receive a huge political windfall if the concessions granted by the US come true.
The size and scope of this debacle cannot be overstated.
– Yep, Iran gave up absolutely nothing. > So simply for starters, the Confirmed and/or Estimated Iranian Death and Wounded totals of 6,000 – 22,000 are absolutely nothing? Don’t get me started on the devastation of there Country.
I bet there families would say differently. I bet the parentless children would say differently. I bet nearly everyone with an ounce of compassion would say differently.
>> They may have been ordered to kill Americans that invaded their country, or die at the hands of therm own military themselves, but they are still human beings. I would like to think we still have compassion as a feeling, despite the darkness of war.
So what did Trump achieve after killing 6,000 – 22,000 Iranians, including school children? What does he and you (his war cheer leader) have to show for it?
All deaths mean something! I am just making the point these deaths are not nothing. Maybe you don’t care because they were not American lives, but I do, and think it’s disgusting. We should have been having negotiations, and not via missiles. I understand that we have, and they have went nowhere for the most part, but keep trying you must. I would have removed Trump from that table long ago, as he has added little value, but caused a lot of angst. Not a good speaker for swaying the other side to yours. He failed negotiations-101 to be sure…
That is a funny thing to say since I never supported this war, you did.
I never supported the war, but the Nuclear abandonment for Iran is what I was supporting/hoping for. I am a Peace person and not for War, unless absolutely necessary. Even then I may not agree, depending on what the meaning of “no choice” was. We always have a choice, but War should be the last of such imho.
Liar, LOL
Didn’t your vote for him put him at that table?
Racist Trump and most of his cult have zero compassion for human life, particularly if it isn’t white folks.
Iran did not ask to be attacked. The losses you speak of were a result of US attacks. Including the attacks that took place during “peace negotiations”. The damage was not something they “gave up”, but something they were forced to endure.
What Iran has successfully achieved, is to gain future strength and leverage by controlling the strait of Hormuz. Which is why we are going to concede to most of their demands.
All Trump has succeeded in, is to make Iran stronger, at extraordinary expense to the US.
What an embarrassment.
(And it’s not “there Country” and “there families”, it’s “their Country” and “their families”.)
– Iran did not ask to be attacked. > No, but there responses warranted such, in the eyes of the President and his Administration. I’m not saying it was right or wrong, but that’s what he said would happen, and in a rare moment of time, he told the truth on that one.
– The losses you speak of were a result of US attacks. Including the attacks that took place during “peace negotiations”. The damage was not something they “gave up”, but something they were forced to endure. > There has yet to be Actual Peace Negotiations, so spare me that bs. Both sides have not been fourth coming with the truth. We have been at war since the beginning, and at no time have I seen or felt peace in play…
– What Iran has successfully achieved, is to gain future strength and leverage by controlling the strait of Hormuz. > Yes, and they have had that all along.
– Which is why we are going to concede to most of their demands. > Not sure Trump won’t try something else still. Maybe a new route? Maybe blow up the entire area and start fresh? Who knows with Trump, as he is truly a wild card… I don’t see him conceding now, but maybe a few more months from now perhaps, if things stay as bad as they are and even get worse.
– All Trump has succeeded in, is to make Iran stronger > That would be a neat trick? So if America lost its entire Military (Navy, Air-force, etc.), and had limited means of self defense against any aggressions p, You would say America is Stronger?
Geez, Stu. Stop while you’re behind.
Lolz!
Dishonest moron believes its own bullshit
If there is anything this comments crew can agree on, it’s that you’re an abject moron trying to make sense of events far beyond your ability to grasp.
My life’s work, in some of what’s contained within this mess, would state otherwise.
I like to try and understand things that are complicated, until broken further down. My area of expertise is perhaps why? Rarely did I fail in my entire career at it.
If your posts here are any guide you’re equally self deluded in all aspects of your life. You get almost unanimous negative votes here which means people across the spectrum find your drivel delusional. And yet you persist without any self reflection whatsoever. You change the narrative to suit your opinion whenever you like, to the point of claiming to have not supported the Iran war in spite of everyone here watching you be one of the primary defenders of it since day one.
And there are many many ways to make money, even for dummies. I run into dumb people with impressive job titles constantly. That’s because they know their little slice of the world and little beyond it. Many times like you they mistake competence in one subject area for competence in general.
– You get almost unanimous negative votes here which means people across the spectrum find your drivel delusional. > I get up votes as well, but that’s not what I am here for. I am here to understand, and listening to all, including those who I don’t agree with. It can be potentially educational.
– And yet you persist without any self reflection whatsoever. > I’m not here to explain myself, I see no need to share my self reflection. I have changed my mind plenty, and it’s typically from what I read, hear, follow etc. one example here is Papa. He has a great analytical skill set that he willingly shares, and I absorb at times. Made money on stocks because of him. He’s bright.
– You change the narrative to suit your opinion whenever you like > As I learn I sometimes change. You should try it.
– claiming to have not supported the Iran war since day one. > I will never support a war, unless I feel it’s the only solution left. In this case Iran with No Nuclear, and whatever it takes to do so. The result selected by Trump (which I disagreed with the timing) and not explained well at all (an issue has). In the end, but much sooner than I would have preferred, a war was to start, as Iran made it clear from the start “No” and Trump just kept pushing the envelope. If when he decided, and if he started strong as heck, we would have had far less damage, and decisions made much sooner and imo more positive. You back up what you say or lose your leverage, Trump has done this time and time again with Iran.
– Many times like you they mistake competence in one subject area for competence in general. > I worked in my fields of competence and got well rewarded for my extremely high level of competence, in those fields. I am here without confidence, as I am new to politics for the most part. Never ran and never will. Am an Independent so I can pick who and not by what party. I do have intelligence and sprit to learn and understand, so that helps me get further along in understanding things, like here with you and others at times…
Enjoy your day! I have a ball to hit!
Iran never wanted nuclear weapons. That’s what makes this so tragic.
The Iranians will use them as a tool. Their leaders and educators will say they were killed by the Great Satan. It will inspire Iranian nationalism for centuries.
I must agree they have been playing Trump. I would suggest replacing him, as I have stated countless times, in all verbal negotiations. He is too quick to speak before he speaks. An issue he as always had from what I recall. Why he is the point person, other than being the President, is beyond me. Replace him with another key figure.
Lol. You’re lost. Totally.
Nope, I am found…
Kamala Harris?
Were those children not murdered by the United States and Israel in a war of aggression?