The three key battleground states have economies that are underperforming the national average. A recession will make things worse and that should help Trump.
Swing-State Economies
Bloomberg reports Swing-State Economic Realities Shape the US Election
In the so-called Blue Wall industrial states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — where the political stakes are now highest, the combined growth from 2019 to the end of 2023 was just a third of that seen outside swing states, once you adjust for inflation and population increases.
In Arizona, which has enjoyed strong real GDP per capita growth, inflation and soaring housing costs hit household budgets hard, much as they have in Nevada and North Carolina. Georgia has benefited from new investments in electric vehicle plants, but it’s also seen its growth diluted by a swell of new residents.
Those burdens help explain why Biden struggled to get his economic message to resonate in these critical states, even as the US unemployment rate sat near historic lows, inflation cooled, and the country’s recovery from the pandemic downturn became the envy of much of the world.
Democrats will court voters on a wide range of issues, including abortion and the future of US democracy, and Harris’ move to the top of the ticket has galvanized their base. But the mixed picture in swing states underscores a hard truth for the party: National data may point to a healthy US economy, but voters’ perceptions of it are heavily shaped by conditions on the ground where they live.
I strongly disagree with Bloomberg’s assessment that national data suggests a healthy economy, but the swing state realities make matters worse in the key states.
Trump desperately needs to turn his focus from attacking Republicans, attacking the Fed, and silly spotlights on Bitcoin back to the economy.
The economy is weakening,
Related Links
August 8: 2024: Trump Seeks More Influence Over the Fed, a Really Stupid Idea
To understand why it’s stupid, ask yourself what would happen if Democrats get complete control again.
August 8, 2024: Trump Fires Arrows Missing the Target Badly, Will a Recession Save Him?
Trump’s strategy has gone from boring to shockingly bizarre and counterproductive. Does Trump think his opponent is Brian Kemp or Kamala Harris? What about recession?
August 6: How Progressive is Tim Walz, Kama Harris’ VP Running Mate?
Yesterday, a friend told me that Walz was not as much a Liberal Progressive as I thought. Let’s investigate.
The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
Regarding a recession, please see The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
A recession indicator based off rising unemployment triggered in July. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, takes credit for an indicator she did not invent. Let’s discuss.
Trump is going to lose “bigly”.
The race has been Trump’s to lose given the US anachronistic electoral college system.
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Don’t we just LOVE how the System calls a RIGGED Voting process, a “COLLEGE?”
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE! IT is as if IT has a PHD … and we are all morons.
It causes a gag reflex every time I see the Label.
Here is our BRILLIANT AMERICAN Voting Process:
1) We take their lies seriously.
A PRIMARY INGREDIENT.
2) We argue amongst ourselves about what THEY dangle as “important” while they meet together (R’s and D’s) in smoky rooms, drinking the good shit and THEY decide what is important to THEM (LOBBY MONEY).
3) WE burn our own FUEL and time VOTING.
4) THE COLLEGE decides FOR us instead, based upon LOBBYING.
AND, they want us HAPPY while they then turn on their own PROMISES making them all LIES..
It is like a wolf (Politician) in front of a MASS OF SHEEP (us) promising to become vegan when IT is elected AND: we BELIEVE THEM!
I use the WORD, “IT” because THEY are nearly inanimate THINGS when they represent US.
OH, get it strait: the REPRESENTATIVE REPUBLIC is not representative of US….NO, they represent THEM!
Come on, SHEEPLE, give up the false front battle and peek under the covers and then try to suppress your gag reflexes.
Brought you by an awakened soul — An American who no longer BELIEVES in his country’s “Greatness.”
On the radio station I manage a new ad pops up on the national programming: “Get your Trump Golden Sneakers”. Sigh…Don, Focus, Focus, Focus.
My father-in-law is a BELIEVER in Trump. He gave them money while NOT being able to save anything. He just got a TRUMP knife. WOW.
Bloomberg paywall prevents my assessment of this MSM
BidenHarris pump.From 60,000 ft:
1) voters don’t care about “GDP” … they care about real income (per capita; per hour better but not tallied)
2) I’ll say Bloomberg is cooking the books not showing which month of 2019 and 2023 they use.
Given the pandemic economic swing (govt caused), the power of statistics to lie is great increased.
MISH: very much agreed
BUT WHAT TODAY’S ICE DATA RELEASE
this should clinch the election; remarkable
No way … TDS rules.
Fake news re: ICE. Cannot assign to Biden/Harris .. also Trump/Obama/Bush. Ha!
The data isn’t only listing people who entered the country during the Biden administration but includes people going back decades who came during previous administrations, said Doris Meissner, former commissioner of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, which was the predecessor to ICE.