Polls suggest Kamala is doing slightly better than Biden. However, the whole deck has been reshuffled and it contains a big number of jokers. 
What Polls Say About Harris vs. Trump
The Wall Street Journal comments on What Polls Say About Harris vs. Trump
Many polls in recent weeks showed Kamala Harris performing slightly better than President Biden in a hypothetical Trump-Harris race. A Wall Street Journal poll after Biden’s debate with former President Donald Trump didn’t test a matchup between Trump and Harris, but it did find that 35% of voters viewed the vice president favorably and 58% viewed her unfavorably—similar numbers to the president at the time. A CBS-YouGov poll estimated Trump to be leading Harris by three points and Biden by five. A Reuters-Ipsos poll last week showed Harris and Trump neck-and-neck.
A New York Times/Siena survey taken before the recent attempted assassination of Trump showed Harris polling better than Biden against Trump in two critical states for Democrats. In Pennsylvania, Harris trailed Trump by one point, and in Virginia, Harris stood five points above Trump. A national NBC News poll, also taken before the assassination attempt, showed both Biden and Harris trailing Trump by two points. Bettors, meanwhile still see a high chance of a Trump victory, betting prices show.
Start All Over
There’s not much in those polls other than a bit of confirmation that Harris-Anyone will be better than Biden-Harris.
But we probably won’t have a real clue for 7-10 days.
Pollsters were scrambling to conduct polls in the wake of the assassination. All of those polls are now useless before they are even published.
But they will be published, likely showing a bounce for Trump in the wake of the assassination, then the convention.
The Rational Choice
Nate Silver commented Biden and Democrats Make the Rational Choice.
The top half of that post is public and worth a read. Silver commented on his biggest mistake in 2016.
Also, Silver’s opening comment rings true “They’re probably still underdogs against Trump, but Biden dropping out improves their odds.“
Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
Yesterday, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
I repeat that message today as stale polls post-assassination and post-convention trickle in.
Whatever those polls say, toss them. But it won’t portend well for Trump if somehow they are worse for him.
Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Yesterday, I commented In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Here is Trump’s comment on Truth Social after Biden dropped out.
“Crooked Joe Biden is the Worst President, by far, in the History of our Nation. He has done everything possible to destroy our Country, from our Southern Border, to Energy Dominance, National Security, International Standing, and so much more. He was annihilated in an Earth Shattering Debate, and now the Corrupt and Radical Democrats are throwing him overboard. He was not fit to serve from the very beginning, but the people around him lied to America about his Complete and Total Mental, Physical, and Cognitive Demise. Whoever the Left puts up now will just be more of the same. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Another Lost Opportunity
A reader friend of mine commented …
Your headline has it exactly right. Trump just can’t help himself.
It’s another lost opportunity to be gracious.
That social media comment and the recent convention show Trump has a hard time grasping the idea that to improve your odds of winning elections you have to win over people who are not with you now.
Another reader challenged me to take Kamala straight up in a bet. I told the reader he had reading comprehension issues.
I still expect Trump to win, if for no other reason than recession trumps foot-in-mouth disease.
The Deck Contains Several Jokers
- The economy
- Trump’s propensity to stick his foot in his mouth
- Many uncertainties surrounding Kamala Harris
Unfortunately, number two appears to be a perpetual given. One might have hoped that J.D. Vance or his campaign or a bit of common sense would prevail, especially after Trump himself said he would tone things down.
But no.
Such behavior cost Trump the election in 2020 as well as a Senate majority. But hey, believe what you want.
It’s The Economy Stupid!
Ultimately, I expect Trump will win no matter what ridiculous things he says because the economy is deteriorating rapidly.
My base case is the economy is in recession already.
Even if Harris did not have excess baggage, a recession coupled with a weakening economy for the next three months would be hard to overcome.
On July 8, I commented Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
Since then, more weak data hit the fan.
I tie the economic picture together in Three Top Reasons Mortgage Delinquencies Are Rising
It’s an uphill battle for Harris.
But that is no excuse for recklessly throwing away votes that may also influence downstream voting.
Trump is likely to convert what could be a landslide into a much closer election. If so, that may cost Republicans the Senate …. again.
If one needs a proper Black Pill version of current events, check out Curtis Yarvin’s latest stack, if you can stomach the reality.
So what is next. Scenario that Biden resigns citing physical health reasons and
Harris gets to sit in Oval office. Trial run for US populace and no one in Dem party would dare challenge a dully anointed DEI candidate.
Obama wing gets stiffed.
THE WRITE IN VOTER SLOGAN
Republicans red/Democrats blue/Neither of them/Give a shit about you
As a purely comical note, I noticed that Joe dropped out on National Ice Cream Day. LOL
Now you know where he’s been all this time. And don’t say hiding out in Nancy’s freezer! (although that could explain the stiff gait).
If Democrats wants to Retain the presidency, THEN, they MUST pick up a very strongly characterized candidate for the presidency, NOT for the VP. A man of Great Courage, Great discipline, and Great Character, and this is very Critical Point of National Security for the USA against all the US strong Enemies! And so forth. Clearly, Ms Harris has big Lack of all these attributes!!
Having a woman President is unconstitutional. Article 2 says “he”. Look it up.
VP picks have never made any difference to voters.
Don’t get Cocky kid
They hot Fedderman in they can get anything in
I dunno Mish… The economy has been “deteriorating” for years now but yesterday I couldn’t find an open parking spot at my nearest Costco. It was like freakin’ Xmas! People cry cry and cry about the economy but they’re spending money like mad. Most airports are well above all-time pax records and you see American tourists in droves in every nook and cranny around the world.
Yes, I believe a recession is coming… someday. I highly doubt it things are going to completely collapse by the election.
Costco is indeed crowded, but the restaurants aren’t.
It won’t be a recession but inflation and slow growth due to a deteriorating currency and rising debt. This is what happen in Japan in the 1990s and 2000s as the cost of everything went up when debt to gdp ratio crossed 100%. Real estate stayed elevated but the cost of everything else went up. Sound familiar? The only reason the Japanese experiment continues is bc of their culture of being in it as a country and culture. It won’t go on that long in the US.
In either case, it’s not the sort of sudden economic collapse that Mish is describing as ensuing between now and the election.
In other words, Mish (who’s been calling a recession for I don’t know how long now) thesis is that a recession in the next 3 months will be a major factor in why Harris loses in November. Well, Harris may very well lose the election but I doubt it that a recession emerges in a powerful enough way in the next 3 months to be a major factor.
What we’ve had is what we’re likely to continue having… high-ish inflation (low-3’s) and slowly rising unemployment – but still very low in absolute terms historically.
The deteriorating currency you wishcast is a financial wrecking-ball relative the ROW. Pick your poison. Dollar reigns supreme: in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is still king.
I have been a regular reader of Mish for 15 years now, and he must have declared forthcoming “recession” about 10 times in those years. Barring that part, I still find his blog insightful and a neutral platform, so continue to return. Take his call for a recession this time with a pinch of salt.
Don’t count Biden out. My neighbors still have not removed their “Biden/Harris” campaign sign from their front yard.
Aren’t these polls also a first real view of Vance as VP ? Like Biden or anyone else approaching their 80s, Trump is likely to suffer mental decline in his early 80s. Anyone who has dealt with people in their early 80s knows that’s when most people start their decline. We’ve already seen signs of this from Trump on the campaign trail over the last year. This makes Vance as important a pick as Harris was 4 years ago.
https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-biden-out-jd-vance-wrong-pick-vice-president-donald-trump-us-election-2024/
Nice try
I don’t think the VP choice has very much impact
Until it does. It’s possible Vance becomes President sooner than people think.
Picking Vance was a strategic mistake in that he appeals mostly to Trump’s base rather than expanding it. When Trump was running against Biden it might have made sense but against someone else it might be less wise of a choice.
Really? Fair amount of dems and independents getting Red pilled in a Big way right now.
Dems, we are the party of democracy and as such you can vote for whomever you want, as long as it is who we pick for you.
Seems that presenting an alternative view such as Trump and JD Vance stands as a stark contrast and has appeal. Building upon a strong foundation of traditional America based upon Merit rather then DEI is a better position.
Democrats voted for Kamala on the ticket as VP… it’s not like they swapped in Soros. This argument doesn’t convince anyone. Something like 80% are supportive now and that number has only been rising.
Harris should go with white male as VP from a swing state. She likely won’t run again in 2028 so voters will be paying attention to where the party is going.
Meanwhile looks like Trump is having buyers remorse with Vance.
This race has many twists and turns ahead.
https://newrepublic.com/post/184106/trump-picking-jd-vance-mistake-biden-kamala-harris
Who says Trump is having buyers remorse? You are totally parroting a nonsense talking point.
New Republic? Come on, man.
The New Republic. Thanks! LOL
Yes, yes, yes…
Harris and a homosexual white male.
Winning ticket!
Well, she doesn’t speak in word salad or look like she’s about to fall over so, I guess it’s an improvement. Donald is crying no fair, of course… somewhere in that word salad.
Doesn’t speak in word salads? You must be kidding.
Clearly you haven’t seen the meme queen at wotk.
To early to say, but I tentatively doubt it’s promising for her. I follow Real Clear Politics and look at the average, but in this case the average goes back to June 28, so it’s not too valuable right now.
The only poll published today is Forbes/Harris, but was done from 7/19 to 7/21 and does not capture the announcement. It shows Trump +6. It is a R leaner and must be combined with the D leaning CBS poll (+3) done from 7/16 to 7/19 when rumors were swirling, and the combo adjusted +2.5% for Trump’s outperformance since entering politics. All of which says that Trump was +6.5 to 7 when Biden dropped out.
Skepticism is in order for polling showing a Harris increase in the next few weeks, for the following reasons
Bottom line is that I doubt this news will help her, or hurt her. I think the deciding factor will, as always, be the economy, which is weakening. Economic distress is felt disprortionately by that 15% I cited, and I think that group fees shaky and wi be feeling shakier in coming months.
If Trump is smart (big “if”) he will focus like a laser beam on the economy and illegal immigration as a threat to citizens’ jobs, lay off the gratuitous insults, be more careful with facts, draw the contrast between the economy of his term vs now, and offer some hope for the future. The wind is at his back, and this his election to lose. If that happens (which I doubt it will, but anything’s possible) it will be entirely his own fault. It is a test of Donald Trump’s focus and discipline. We shall see if he chokes.
To judge the lean and accuracy of individual polls, go to Nate Silver’s Substack entry, which is not behind a paywall. Scroll down a ways, and it’s all there.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin
To find Trump’s 2016 and 2020 performance vs the average, go to the link below. Click on Election 2024 and scroll down to the historical polling archive.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/
Kamala will soon have to be in front of cameras every day now and she is insufferable. I agree early bump for her that fades as people’s ears start to bleed from hearing her voice.
I posted two links in this thread where people here can get good info abut individual poll leans and accuracy, and about Trump’s outperformance in ’16 and ’20. They are in the spam queue, so maybe the Kraken will be released and maybe not, speaking of historical patterns here. LOL
She’s kind of weird but I don’t get those awful condescending/ hair raising Hillary vibes from her. I think you are underestimating her.
I agree. I think she will be electorally viable. The whole word salad thing is fun and telling, but the way to go after her is on the economy if it keeps weakening, which I think it will, and on her illegal immigration debacle. Ad hominem attacks will be a mistake, and backfire.
A fourth joker: A different candidate.
Who would dare cross Hillary’s endorsement of Harris?
Hillary who?
Trump would be well served by emulating FDR. After the attempted coup aimed at installing general Smedly Butler as the dictator of the U.S. FDR, instead of making a lot of noise simply kept the focus on selling policy changes, breaking up the monopolistic cartels etc..to the American public and policy makers.
Smedley refused. The plot originated with Bush’s ancestors.
The attempted coup was responsible for Paul Mellon’s donation of the National Gallery of Art and much of its contents. It’s the building with concrete dome on the Capitol Mall, not far from the Capitol. That “gift” was part of the informal plea bargain. I got this from a Mellon family descendant who used to accompany paintings flown by private jet from Pittsburgh to Washington well into the 1990s.
its not a bad idea. If trump could act calm and cool and presidential he’s got it, but if you think he has that ability after what you’ve seen these past 10 years, fella i dont know what to tell ya
I agree, he just cannot help himself when he sees the chance to make a personal attack. However, conservatives will support him to the end where hopefully the Dems act worse than the Don.
My LA traffic recession indicator is sounding again. It now takes me an average of 18 minutes versus 40 getting to work. Some of the improvement is due to summer vacation for the school kids but as conformation there is also lower demand for gasoline moderating prices.
With someone like Mark Kelly on a Kamala Harris ticket combined with Trump’s insistence on playing to his base I agree with Mish that Trump may still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I for one am not thrilled about the prospect of yet another war hawk president in the likes of Kamala Harris.
Go through the last half dozen elections. Tell me which one(s) was decided by who the VP choice was? It certainly wasn’t 2020 for either party, in fact if there ever was an election where the VP should have been somewhat important it would have been that one, given Biden’s advanced age and higher potential for the VP to assume the Presidency (as is now working out). Was Kamala eagerly awaited for? I don’t think so.
Interesting trivia, but I don’t think the timing matters. What counts is that the Ds will pick the sitting VP Anything else would have been an unmitigated disaster for them. They really have no choice on that one, even if race was not an issue, if they are to have any hope of winning or (more likely, IMO) mitigating the loss to come.
Two bits of confirmation are that gasoline volumes are off, and so are potato chip volumes. The latter bit comes from my potato farmer friend who is high up in their association and knows the numbers. When people buy less of America’s most common snack food, it’s a yellow light. Anyone here notice the 2-for-1 potato chip deals in the grocery stores lately?
Potato chips ARE cracking, but still cost more per pound than hamburger. [ FRED has data for both… ]
(Puns intended: If you’re bringing home the bacon and the fruits of your labors now barely cover the monthly nut, seeing chips cost more than burgers is totally bananas!)
I am a retrograde potato chip eater, so it’s one of those prices I pay attention to, along with vegetables The prices have gone out of sight.
One thing I’m wondering is how many potential Dem candidates are even willing to tie themselves to Kamala at all. They may be hesitant to risk going down with the ship.
They will absolutely tie themselves to her, and already are doing so. They really have no choice but to do that.
she’s appearing in wisconsin today with the governor a sentator and a bunch of other state dems. the democrats are all in on Harris. Everyone was running away from biden full speed.
The final part of the analysis is the one that matters: the economy. If it weakens (even more), then advantage Trump. Also, don’t underestimate Kamala’s ability to turn people off. She is benefitting right now from a relief rally amongst Democrats now that Biden dropped out, but I expect we have seen peak Kamala already. The ads tying her to San Francisco and California haven’t even started, and she hasn’t opened her yap and delivered her word salad inanities for all to see. Being under the microscope will be fatal for her.
What does Nate Silver say – will the Cubs go another 108 years between World Series wins?
Important beyond gracious to openly know who is running the country.
The distinction between being gracious is this: Trump typically verbally snipes his political opponent, not their supporters or Americans in general. Meanwhile, ignored in all of the crack analysis of those that don’t like Trump’s words or stype, is the fact that his first opponent labled millions of Americans as Deplorables and the sitting president said we MAGA republicans are threats that must be stopped. The leaders in the Democratic party have targeted conservatives and Trump supporters as much as they’ve targeted the former President himself.
So, when you all get up in arms about Trump being “gracious” please apply that same scrutiny to the aggressiveness and name calling done by Hillary, Biden, Harris, etc. Trump calls Haley Bird Brain, Crooked Hillary, Crooked Joe but doesn’t label the 81 Million Americans as libtartds or any other desparaging name. I’m a deplorable maggot, but I guess I gave that name to myself–oh, wait, I didn’t.
I’m with other commenters on here–you demand graciousness however you weren’t recently shot at while Biden’s SS Director is refusing to resign, Biden is refusing to fire her and her non-answers and stonewalling in front of Congress is appalling. Now, after 8 years of relentless attack the likes of which I’ve never witnessed in the private or public sector, we expect him to act one way. While Biden has been protected and shielded and handled with kid gloves throughout. For God’s sake they had 51 intelligence officials label the laptop as Russian disinformation when they had it in their possession and knew it was real immediately prior to the last election. Impeachment here and there and everywhere. Raid Mar a Lago but give Biden advance notice on his illegally obtained and held docments. Cocaine in the White House–no problem. 10% for the big guy, all poppy cock.
Trump uses his typical bombastic style, can’t have that.
To say y’all have nerve is too kind.
It’s clear we are at loggerheads nationally, we only have the irreconciliable differences left. And, when you’re at war, you have to pick a side.
Y’all stay comfortable with the Democrats–watch that Secret Service testimony. That’s how the D’s roll in DC. I’m gonna let Trump be Trump and know it’s only policy and governance that matter. I realize the princpleless independents might be swayed like a willow branch by a few comments but I notice they conveniently ignore a LOT of comments made by the Democrats, proving they are Independents-In-Name-Only.
It’s not that he doesn’t have a reason to be pissed off, he certainly does. But it makes more sense to be gracious (even if you don’t really mean it) if you want to win the election. I’m convinced that a lot more people would be ok with Trump if he showed at least some humility once in a while. It would be smart to do it when people least expect it. All the reasons you lay out above are valid, but so what? The “self righteous, I’m so great, I dodged a bullet, they are all a-holes” stuff won’t matter to his supporters who are going to vote for him anyway. But it turns off a lot of people who might be inclined to vote for him if he would show that he isn’t all bravado and bragging. The goal should be to get elected, and to do things that assist you in obtaining that goal. “Letting Trump be Trump” 100% of the time could very well cost him the election. And it doesn’t have to be that way.
Exactly!
And there no need for name calling even if you cannot be gracious.
Couldn’t possibly agree more. Go hard after her, but strictly on the issues.
I do agree with you but i find that the other side pays no attention to the name calling actual American citizens. I wish he would refrain as well.
The name calling and lack of graciousness is a symptom of somone who can’t keep thier emotions in check. A lack of emotional impulse control is not something you want in a leader.
Agree. It’s why I have never voted for Trump and will cast my third straight write-in vote this year.
Very well said. Especially the point about keeping his slights aimed at the politicians and not their supporters.
Trump made fun of people (Americans) dying in blue states from Covid. Let’s remember that. He made fun of a handicapped journalist. He makes fun of women, minorities… he’s the king of punching down. How you can make a post like that with a straight face? Pathology.
Biden drops out closer to election day than any presidential nominee before. This happens in the same year that we have the first presidential debate in June! Going back to 1960, the earliest prez debate happened on Sept 21st. What a coincidence.
you are forgetting that until the 70s no canidate was ever selected until the convention, so your claim of biggest scandal in history of all time is a bit overblown
Am thinking there will be some kind of bump for Kamala. She hasn’t been properly vetted at all. I suspect when all here positions, bloopers, past positions and statements are brought out this will slowly drain her support showing her to be much more progressive than most people can stand.
Exactly. The democrats are having a cathartic moment right now, but it will meet the harsh reality of Kamala’s incompetence and annoying persona soon after the kumbaya moment is over.
Hasn’t been vetted… LOL she’s been vice president for 4 years
There are two California based writers that are working on exposing Harris for her incompetence and her lying. (She’s trained by HRC and every bit the liar that she and Biden are.) Susan Shelley of Los Angeles Daily News, and Jennifer Van Laar of RedState. Van Laar is RedState’s Managing Editor. Please seek out the articles, as Harris is, like Biden and Newsom, a foreign agent. Read the book, Profiles in Corruption by Peter Schweizer.
The US is in grave danger; more so from within.
Grave danger.
As in RIP.
How many tomorrows of this we can handle. 105 today’s from now will be 105 yesterdays from now. It gets a mind to wondering.
Trump should call Kamala Harris, “Flustered Kamala”, since that will just fluster her more, if even possible.
No they shouldn’t. They should steer clear of ad hominems, and focus entirely on the economy and her failure on illegal immigration, and nothing else.
What failure? Her job was to pack the country with 3 million undocumented immigrants per year, minimum, without raising a serious legal challenge. She succeeded with flying colors in weakening US sovereignty, just as ordered.
I don’t think Trump has the capacity to be gracious, even when it would help him immensely. He has had several opportunities to show he is smarter and nicer than he appears to be (I’m begining to wonder if either is true) and each time he takes the low road and resorts to the weak taunts (they are not even clever or funny) and sounds like he has never read a book in his life. The WWF convention was a mistake. Donald, you have the trailer park vote (if they vote) how about trying to appeal to people that might like you if you weren’t such a moron ALL THE TIME. His disjointed, dumb, egotistical speech at the convention was a mistake. I think Vance was a mistake too. I’m a Trump supporter, but for the love of God someone/anyone in his circle needs to have a serious talk with him or he may lose to the dumbest woman in the freaking country. This behavior is exactly why he lost a very winnable election in 2020. He doesn’t seem to have learned a thing. He was upset at losing to Biden. Imagine losing to Harris.
He lost in ’20 because the unemployment rate went up in the second quarter. That was covid caused, but no matter. It’s what did him in. All the rest was, to quote a favorite phrase, whipped cream on dogshit.
There’s no way, that cackling hen wins the presidency. NO WAY!
Why should Trump be gracious to the team that tried to lawfare him to death, to impeach him to death, to insinuate he’s a Russian asset to death, to weaponize the DOJ, FBI CIA to investigate him to death over the Russian collusion hoax and the Russian Dossier hoax? Why should Trump be gracious to the team that ordered 52 ‘intelligence experts’ to declare the Hunter laptop as ‘Russian disinformation?” Why should Trump be gracious to the team that created more election night/early morning ballot drops than for any other election in US history?
The lies that came out of the democratic machine, from Hillary, from Obama, from Schiff, from Murphy, and ilk, all for the sole purpose of derailing Trump’s plan for the country, are reason enough to NOT be gracious.
MSM, which lied to us from before Trump’s election, all during Trump’s tenure as president, and all through this primary season, are reasons enough to NOT be gracious. The behavior of MSM and big tech would, in any honest world, have been cause enough for election interference charges, but none were ever brought.
Let Trump be Trump. He may sometimes speak like an angry middle-schooler, but the message in his words are clear: Biden was an insult to the presidency, a destroyer of the integrity of the DOJ and FBI, a colluder with MSM to spread lies, and the sooner he is forgotten, all the better for all of us.
Why be gracious? Because it would probably win him votes and possibly the election. The nasty grudge is counter productive at the moment. Pick your cliche; cutting off your nose to spite your face, baby with the bathwater. Whatever.
Sometimes you should be gracious because it is in your best interest to do so. What is at the top of the agenda? Keep reminding the world that you are real good at holding a grudge or getting elected? You can have the grudge in private. You want to be President? It would really help you to act Presidential once in awhile.
Exactly. Campaigns are theatrical exercises. If anyone should know it, he should. You don’t say what you want to say, you say what you should say.
Mike, still thinking renters will have more sway in this election than thought, per your earlier smart column on this.Other guys I interview throw cold water on it but I think it holds water quite well. Meanwhile, the Don needs to fight the fights worth fighting. Author Abigail Shrier had a smart take on that over the weekend “If Republicans want to defeat Kamala, they should cut out all the chest-thumping misogyny, the cracks about her sexual history, etc. It will energize her base more than yours.
They should simply remind the public:
“Kamala is our Border Czar.”
It also wouldn’t hurt to remind everyone that when she was sworn in, in 2016 she was the first Indian (as in India, not native) Senator. Suddenly she’s morphed into a Black woman (clearly to get the Black vote).
If I was Trump, I’d ask her why the flip flop on her racial identity (to discredit her among the Black vote) and focus hard on the fact she just goes with whatever way the wind is blowing.
No offense, but that won’t work. I know the blacks. Black people already know she’s a light-skin home wrecker, Willie Brown’s side chick. Let them talk amongst themselves about that.
I will be curious to see what the polls show about black voters. My guess, which is only that and carries little confidence, is that she will be popular with black women and less popular with black men. This won’t matter much to Trump’s fortunes, because blacks are a very loyal D constituency.
If the Ds had passed over Kamalatoe, that would have changed. But they didn’t, so it won’t. Whether or not blacks should be so loyal is beside the point. What matters is that are ARE loyal, and that this will not change this year.
By the way, I think her light skin will tend to help her with blacks. Wherever you go on this planet, including in the U.S., there is a high degree of colorism among black people. What might hurt her to some degree among black men is that she married a white man. There is no small amount of bitterness among black men toward black women who do that.
How this translates into voting is anyone’s guess. Mine is that generic racial loyalty will counteract all of that, but we shall see. Still, I bet that her campaign keeps her Jewish husband well hidden just in case.
Open convention would have been smart. So they did the opposite
It will be an open convention, but one with a predetermined (I think) outcome.
There might be some serious dissention. For some it might be now or never to put themselves forward.
“For some it might be now or never to put themselves forward.”
Only wildcards and those who have accepted they’ll never be more than also-rans, though.
Anyone mainstream Democrat serious about their presidential ambition, are much less likely to risk future chances by getting into a mess at the start of a “recession.” Holding off until Trump has, again, inevitably, failed at Making America Great Again, is a much safer bet.
A normally unlikely wildcard like Manchin, could possibly attempt a surprise run straight down the middle. Catching the two base-panderering headliners by a bit of a surprise, if there is truly anything to the meme that most people are tired of the incessant polarization.
Wow, if only that would happen.
WIll be curious as to the Veep pick. Not thinking the party wishes to burn an “A” level candidate with KH at the top?
If there was a legit A level candidate they would be on top of the ticket already or at least a serious contender at the convention. The fact that so many people think it’s a done deal that Kamala is getting the nod says there are no A candidates.
Conventions are nothing but infomercials, so the reality that it won’t actually be an open convention will be lost in the noise. No one expects it, and no way in hell would they ever risk it. Biden’s decision was entirely abut avoiding that disaster.
A friend thinks Trump is Hitler. I told him that was retarded. Another friend left a dinner party simply because one guest brought up Biden in the debates. Ok, we were all ready to jump on that one but thought he had thicker skin. They’re both intelligent. AND brain washed. Belief is hard to sway. Trump may be unlikable for many but Kamala is an imbecile and unlikable.This apart from 30% price increases in groceries during Uncle Joe’s reign of error. Rent etc. Apart from belief, money talks. Inflation is the candidate killer, even if they just tried the old fashioned route with Trump.
It’s easier to act offended than admit you were dumb.
Trump is not Hitler. He’s obviously Mussolini!
Berlusconi. Who was great, BTW.
Someone who was there said he threw great parties.
Benito helped me buy my first house. Long story.
Remember that the election will be decided by the 15% of voters who are on the bubble. By and large, these people are disengaged and don’t know Kamalatoe from their left ankle. She is unlikable to anyone who has paid attention, including Ds who will hold their nose and vote for her anyway, but the 15% has not been doing that. Anyone banking on her unpopularity until now is thus playing a loser’s game.
The D establishment and media (one in the same) will put lipstick on that pig and use a trowel to do it The Rs need to introduce her as the one who fucked up the illegal immigrant surge. If they go ad hominem on her, it will be a major error.
Agree. In 2024, you can’t call a skank a skank.
Take it easy, skanky! — Bob Marley. Since Kammy hails from Jamaica …
Ad hominem is quite effective. I think Trump needs to balance it out though. Immigration, her record as a DA jailing poor black kids, her involvement in the BLM riots, inflammatory statements, her gaffes, ties to the neocons. She has to pay extra she has so much baggage.
Agree that belief is hard to sway, but I’d argue there are two types of intelligence in play here.
Today’s schools mostly select for “ability to memorize material put in front of you” (and I would add, especially if it agrees with your personal bias and biases in your environment). But that only makes someone a smart-parrot.
There is a second, deeper form of intelligence, “ability to discern fact from opinion, seek out facts on matters of importance, think past your biases and learn for yourself”. Such people are much more difficult to brainwash than the smart-parrots, but unfortunately they are in the minority.
Sadly, even this isn’t quite sufficient, because one can still fool oneself through laziness or lack of awareness. It takes a lot of effort to build up the blacklist of non-credible media sources, those who have permanently shamed themselves but somehow not lost their jobs yet.
In the end, Sturgeon’s Law still applies: 90% of media is obvious crap… and of the remaining 10%, I’d add that upon closer inspection, 90% that turns out to be crap too. That leaves 1% that might not be crap, but I personally think another 90% of that also proves to be wrong in hindsight. It takes a while to find the 0.1% that’s right, true and wise.
Andrew Jackson had a parrot who had such a foul mouth, he had to be ejected from Jackson’s funeral. That’s a good parrot. Information at our fingertips while we descend into ignorance. Education should not be a matter of buying votes from the teachers unions for elections.
Biden could only read a teleprompter. If only Trump would ONLY read a teleprompter.
Kamala “word salad” Harris has no chance of beating Trump as long as Trump doesn’t beat himself.
Which means she has a chance (a possibility that many of us hate to acknowledge)
Correct – That is all I am saying – well a bit more – It could cost Republicans downstream votes, even the Senate
My hunch is that Harris won’t be able to avoid saying some crazy left-wing shit like “pregnant people”. For every additional woman’s vote, she’ll probably lose one man’s vote because she’ll remind guys of their woke daughter or crazy sister.
I agree with this.
Competing foot-in-mouth disease
need to overturn the amendment that gave “women” the right to vote…..perhaps replace it with “people” LOL…….
The 19th actually doesn’t say “women”. It just says you can’t discriminate by sex. That’s why we can’t just repeal it. They might change it so ONLY women could vote. Then we’d be fucked.
“Such behavior cost Trump the election in 2020”
C’mon man. If you actually believe that there is no hope.
Wait until you see the number of ballots they manufacture this time.
The last Democratic candidate to actually win an election without cheating was Harry Truman.
Trump lost. Period.
You have TDS.
And his downright idiotic “Stop the Steal” picks cost Republicans Senate seats in GA, AZ, and PA
For crying out loud, there are still people who believe this crap? Over 60 lawsuits everywhere, with NOTHING? Even from Trump appointed judges? In PA, the entire election system including unique barcoded mail-in ballot and citizen verification was designed by REPUBLICANS just 2 years before (because of the Philly corruption), yet still this crap from the Q-sphere about PA?
Here in W PA, Doug Mastriano lost 50% of the (R) votes because of his crazy Trump crap, not because of made-up votes by (D)s
Google said they weren’t going to allow 2016 to happen again. The truth about the Hunter laptop was suppressed, for one. There was a lot of election interference, beyond that. It was a corrupt election.
“Over 60 lawsuits” dismissed for lack of standing. None heard on the merits. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature. Dems are the party of lawyers. They know how the system works. In many states, the changes in voting procedures attributed to the virus were prima facie unconstitutional since they were made up on the fly by secretaries of state, not “prescribed by the legislature therein” as required by the US Constitution. But fuck the constitution – it’s “over 100 years old” as dipshit Ezra Klein said.
This election fraud story is total and complete nonsense. It it were true to the scale the Trump lies assert it is then you’d see people being turned around in droves at the polls because someone had already voted (fraudulently) in their place (and they’d shouting about it en-masse on Faux News) but the reality is that this something you only hear about very seldom happening. Only brainwashed fools believe in this nonsense.
Did you know that PA had been ordered by Alito not to commingle the same-day ballots with the mail-in ballots and they did it anyway? Did you know that in Maricopa County, AZ, optical ballot scanners in multiple precincts all went down at the same time? Zuckerboxes in Wisconsin provided ballots in excess of Biden’s purported margin of victory. Stuffing ballot boxes is easy and has been going on in this country for 150 years.
if you really believe that then why vote?
Can’t wait to see her debate Trump. Might be even more entertaining than the one last month. She’s not any better of a selection than Biden. Just on a different “outrageous” level. We will be playing take a swig EVERYTIME she cackles. We should be sloshed by end of the debate!