Nate Silver, Nate Cohn (NYT), and Sean Trende (Real Clear Politics) all say the same thing: It’s close. 
In a Tweet yesterday, Sean Trende says “Nate Silver and I publish essentially the same article within an hour of each other. The race is close, and that’s probably what your final answer should be. The entrails probably suggest some weight on the scale for Trump, but the real answer is: It’s close.”
One of my readers told me the other day to stop watching Nate Silver and start watching Real Clear Politics. OK, there you go.
Question of the Day
“Do you think the polling methodology has changed such that it is less likely Trump will overperform his polls, or do you think they’re basically doing the same stuff that has led to the polling errors in the past?”
RCP: Trump 312 over Harris 226
Republicans take comforting in the RCP projection and likely even this headline by Sean Trende, It’s Close, But the Signs Aren’t Good for Harris but read the details.
Although our poll averages show Donald Trump winning by 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 226 electoral votes, this doesn’t tell the full story. In the key battleground states, four of Trump’s leads are under a single decimal point: As of this writing, 0.8% in Pennsylvania, 0.4% in North Carolina, 0.4% in Wisconsin, and 0.9% in Michigan. Another three races show a lead of fewer than three points: Michigan (1.2), Arizona (1.8), and Georgia (2.5). It wouldn’t take a significant poll error for Harris to win.
As I give pre-election speeches and talks, though, I’m discovering that people find that answer – “It is close” – strangely unsatisfying. One thing I’ve learned through years of doing this job is that people have a difficult time dealing with uncertainty.
You can see this in the reactions as various forecasting models have shifted over the past few weeks. Over time, the difference between a 53% chance of an outcome and a 47% chance of an outcome can be meaningful.
But for a single realized outcome? The difference is effectively meaningless. This race is close. Yet crossing that 50% threshold has deep psychological meaning for people, which leads to the freakouts and recriminations that come with those thresholds being crossed.
Nevertheless, people want answers, so aside from the insistence that “it is close and could go either way, and I mean that,” I do think Trump is likely the favorite.
I’ve long believed in the rule of thumb: Watch what the candidates are doing, even more so than what the polls are saying. So ask yourself, which candidate is changing her (spoiler alert!) strategy a few weeks before the election? Kamala Harris had famously avoided impromptu interviews while she led over the summer, yet suddenly she is appearing on The View and Fox News (neither of which went particularly well). Is it a good sign that Barack Obama is on the hustings imploring black men to vote for Harris?
Second, we can look at the movement in our poll averages. It hardly matters which poll average you look at, whether it is the national polls, or Wisconsin, or Michigan, but all of them show a late break toward Trump. It would be one thing if it were just a state or two, but it really is consistent, across-the-board movement that also holds up comparing pollster-to-pollster. That gives us a fairly high degree of confidence it is “real.”
Third, there is the possibility that Trump (again) overperforms his polling. I don’t want to make too much of this. It’s true he overperformed – significantly – in 2020 and 2016. But 2020 was a weird year, to say the least, and 2016 was really an instance of pollsters’ techniques being inappropriate to the changing party coalitions.
If you’re through this thinking, “That is some thin gruel,” I agree! As I said, the real answer is, “This is a close race that could go either way.” I might add: “We probably won’t have a better sense of things until the election returns start drifting in.” I’d also note that it’s hard for me to find small “tells” pointing in the other direction. So, if I had to play a hand, I’d rather play his than hers. But the better bet for now is to just walk away from the table and wait.
It’s close. Real close.
Nate Silver’s NYT Op-Ed
For comparison purposes, please see Nate Silver’s NYT Op-Ed Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine
That’s a free link.
It’s debatable if the articles are essentially the same, but in the meme of the day, OK they are close to the same.
I am a momentum believer, and for whatever momentum has shifted. That does not mean momentum will last. It could even reverse.
I also like Trende’s discussion of what the candidates are doing. That seems real to me.
But if you look on Twitter, the overwhelming representation of what Trende reports is outright panic by the Democrats, a big stretch.
The Pollsters Blew It in 2020. Will They Be Wrong Again in 2024?
The Wall Street Journal reports The Pollsters Blew It in 2020. Will They Be Wrong Again in 2024?
Once the votes were counted in the 2020 presidential election, the result was clear: The pollsters had lost once again.
Surveys had indicated that Joe Biden was closing strong against then-President Donald Trump. He led by a comfortable 8.4 percentage points in the final Fivethirtyeight.com average of national polls just before the election, and by 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Biden ended up winning the national vote by less than 4.5 points—a lead that barely let him eke out victory in the Electoral College. If polls are missing the mark this year by the same magnitude, the narrow leads for Vice President Kamala Harris in many national averages today would actually be leads for Trump.
In the aggregate, the panel said, polls overstated support for Biden by 3.9 percentage points in the national vote in the final two weeks of the campaign. That was a departure from 2016, when national polls were among the most accurate in 80 years but state-level polls failed to detect signs of Trump’s eventual victory in the Electoral College.
Scott Tranter, data science director at Decision Desk HQ, a political data firm, said some of this year’s trend-breaking developments, such as the shift of Latino and Black voters toward Trump, could cause new problems. Even if pollsters detect the shift in voting preferences among those voters, determining how many will actually cast ballots remains difficult. Similarly, a surge in suburban women who support abortion rights turning out to back Harris, should that materialize, might be hard for a pollster to foresee.
As a result, Tranter says he expects polling error to be about the same magnitude as in the recent past—but he doesn’t know if it will understate support for Trump, or for the Democratic nominee, as polls did in 2012, during then-President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign.
“It’s like a roulette wheel,” Tranter said. “Just because it showed up red the last two times doesn’t mean it’s going to show up red this time.”
That sentence by Tranter is close to what Silver said.
Silver’s Conclusion
With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.
Polling firms are pilloried on social media whenever they publish a result deemed an outlier — so most of them don’t, instead herding toward a consensus and matching what polling averages (and people’s instincts) show. The Times/Siena polls are one of the few regular exceptions, and they depict a much different electorate than others, with Mr. Trump making significant gains with Black and Hispanic voters but lagging in the blue-wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them.
I endorse that view but that does not make it an equal chance.
The Single Most Likely Battleground Result is a Clean Sweep by Trump
For those of you who think Nate Silver is a shill for Democrats, please consider this chart.
On October 22, I noted The Single Most Likely Battleground Result is a Clean Sweep by Trump
A whopping 39.7 percent of Silver’s scenarios in the battleground states are a clean sweep by Trump or Harris.
Clean Sweep or Sweep -1
- Trump: 24.4 + 4.6 + 2.6 + 1.9 + 1.3 = 34.8 Percent
- Harris: 15.3 + 3.4 + 2.8 = 21.5 Percent
Trump has a meaningful 13.3 percentage point advantage.
Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Harris in Closing Weeks of Race
Here’s a new poll tonight not factored in Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Harris in Closing Weeks of Race
Donald Trump has opened a narrow lead in the presidential race, as voters have adopted a more positive view of his agenda and past performance and a more negative view of Kamala Harris, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.
The national survey finds that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, compared with a Harris lead of 2 points in the Journal’s August survey on a ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. Both leads are within the polls’ margins of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead.
The Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters from Oct. 19 to 22. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
That’s a high quality WSJ poll.
Average that in. Silver will do so sometime today, and so will RCP.
What Went Wrong Theories
- Shy Republicans
- Something special about Trump
- Nonresponse bias
Silver says there is no evidence of shy voters. I tend to agree. In 2016 the national polls were very close but the state forecasts were abysmal.
The 2016 error has been corrected. One wonders if it’s been over-corrected.
In previous years, very few pollsters weighted on “recalled vote”. New this year almost all of them do, with NYT/Siena an exception.
Silver notes that a key problem with weighting on recalled vote is that people often misremember or misstate whom they voted for and are more likely to say they voted for the winner (in 2020, Mr. Biden).
It’s a known issues but pollsters want to improve on 2020. Instead, they may replicate 2020 but in the opposite direction.
Nate Cohn discusses what went wrong in his post Two Theories for Why the Polls Failed in 2020, and What It Means for 2024
To make polling better, you have to figure out what went wrong in the first place.
Unfortunately, no one is sure about what happened in 2020.
That’s also a free link for interested persons. Nate Cohn is always a good read.
My Take
Trump is ahead. Call it 55-45. I am a big believer in momentum. It’s real, but not overwhelming.
As, I mentioned to friends yesterday, if the polls are wrong in the opposite direction, Trump needed momentum just to get back to even.
But I would much rather be in Trump’s shoes, placing a bit of faith in the momentum. Harris’s best chance may very well be a polling error.
How confident am I there is not a big polling error? Not very, especially given the sudden switch to weighting by recalled votes.
50-50 is essentially the bottom line conclusion of Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin), Sean Trende (RCP), Nate Cohn (NYT), and various WSJ writers +- gut feeling.
What do I know they don’t?
Nothing, and you don’t either. I happen to put more weight on momentum and the other ideas of Trende than he does.
But I am not a Johnny-come-lately on momentum.
Trump’s Polling Momentum Is Real
On October 18, I commented Trump’s Polling Momentum Is Real With Under Three Weeks to Go
Let’s discuss momentum. Nate Silver mostly dismisses it, but I don’t. And the election is in 17 days.
That was followed by my October 20 post The Most Accurate Pollster in 2020 Has Blockbuster Polls for Trump
Yesterday’s WSJ poll adds to momentum. So is it 50-50 or better?
I like Trump’s chances, but this isn’t over for another 10 days, and perhaps not then. Don’t rule out either a recount or a sweep.
I have no faith in the polls. Personally, I think Harris will win decisively. Why? I think people are burned out by Trump. I think the demographics aren’t there for Trump in Pennsylvania. Kamala has room to get extra votes. Trump has hit a ceiling. The Dems can get out the vote. Republicans can’t. Look at the past elections since 2018. Trump and Trump backed candidates got crucified in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Nothing has changed. Women will continue to crucify him. One should always look at the economy right before an election. Right now we have strong job growth, expanding GDP, low unemployment and inflation has been tamed. Trump is a felon, insurance fraudster and sexual predator. In the end, people will do the right thing. I could be wrong. I can’t predict what 150 million will do. We shall soon see.
The only thing this election will determine is if the deep state, after being exposed, can still cheat the American people out of their choice of representation.
Does that apply if Harris gets elected? Or is it just if Trump loses?
If you have to seriously ask that question, you’re either clueless or a shill for the corruption.
Ha Ha Ha
If we want to throw “feelings” into the mix, Here’s someone who has a “feeling” that Harris is going to win.
Momentum might be the case with other elections, but the difference is Kamala was an unknown quantity. She is not down because of momentum but people seeing who she is and disliking her. Even Biden and her own staff do not like her.
If you look at the gambling odds, Trump is up by nearly 2 to 1. That is the same odds where the billionaire types who run the Democratic party tossed Biden off the boat.
The reason Harris was chosen, and really the only reason, is all the money Biden-Harris raised could only go to Harris. Dems would have to refund money if a new candidate was selected.
What we saw is that a portion of Democratic leaning voters were not going to vote for a demented Biden. They considered Harris for a while, saw what kind of person she really was, and are back ready to vote for Trump. It is not momentum. They have made up their minds.
LULZ… what a slimy, spineless hedge+cop-out.
Nate Silver is an absolute joke.
This waffeling is what Silver and others get the big bucks ($$$) for?
Put some skin in the game for your predictions pundits. Maybe a $10k charity donation if you are wrong?
lol, who cares what Silver says. Nate Silver is the personification of overhype.
His business depends on hype and promotion.
NV is close, but won’t matter. MN should never have been in real clear’s tossups, dems win that. Imo trump might sweep the rest and almost certainly the EC… and even has a chance at the pop vote.
Granted, it’s bc Hillary jumped first and anointed Harris, spiking Obama’s choice for open convention. Might be Clinton Harris Obama came up with the 25th amendment threat that got Biden out, but it likely torpedoed dems chances for presidency by allowing such a hopeless and unpopular person be rhe candidate. Biden’s revenge is his vp pick.
You had a better take in 2020. You actually used some logic behind your reason for a T. loss. This time, I’m not seeing that logic and I think the polls are missing the pissed off woman vote. Remember that 2022 promised red wave, I can see the samething again.
Even the most religious groups have woman that do things and keep that secret their entire life. They will protect that right for their daughters.
Thinking women simply vote as a block without thought to being anything but a woman is where you are wrong. In fact its insulting
Identity politics is all they have. Exactly how they treat minority votes in this country also. They even say it out loud ie Obama et all.
Identity politics started with Trump and his thinly veiled attacks with racist overtones on those branded outsiders. He has nothing else to run on. You all talk about the economy. The actual numbers are better than when Trump left. The stock market is raging. The consumer price index is down. Trump got us into a recession and stood by while people died. He is benefiting from faded memories. Illegal border crossings also happened under Trump. The thing is — noone appears to care about the facts. When people vote passion rather than substance, the democratic process itself will breed a dictator.
It’s young, single, and mostly white women.
And they mostly live in Blue cities in Blue states. They’re not going to swing Michigan or Wisconsin or Nevada
I agree. Of course not everyone woman will vote for Harris just because of women’s rights. But enough will to give Trump a real problem.
A gift from God that she is the candidate. Democrats did this to themselves. They didn’t respect the process. They lied about Biden’s dementia and then it was too late to bypass her. They fucked up. Sad
To-date, I’m very pleased with how this has worked out. It’s about time the Dems get some bad karma. Comrade Harris is only modestly more qualified to be president than Joe Biden, and he’s 85% gone.
Republicans took two pages out of the Dimocratic play book. Vote early and often. Elon Musk is giving away $1 million/day of walking around money to a random patriot who supports the first and second amendments.
Mark Cuban pays 1M/day votes. Mark might serve 5Y in jail.
What does J.B. Pritzker’s gut say?
“I’m loving it!”
Another weak performance by an empty head Harris last evening. She could not even convince CNN that she had answers.
Joe Rogan will not be so biased that he will do the gotcha Q+A of the debate formats.
Real questions pertaining to direction forward for US are going to get asked.
Trump may not be the Man for all Seasons but he is the Man for this Season. The Contrast between Harris and Trump could not be more stark.
As for the pollsters they are there to lend credibility if the vote counting somehow gets Fudged enough to alter the outcome.
will add: Just went to ZeroHedge to see what they had up.
Article titled “Over 80% of Americans are in favor of requiring photo ID, proof of citizenship to vote”
That is a Large indication that citizens have a view on illegal immigration in opposition to the open borders of Biden Harris.
Authored by Megan Brenan of Gallup
Since a good portion of that 80% is going to be Woman, this election is not a single issue decision based upon Abortion for that part of electorate.
Based on the ads I see in MD and VA I’d venture to guess that abortion is the *only* issue for 50% of women, at least in those states. It’s hard to think of a Dem ad that isn’t based solely on abortion. There are a few, just generic phrases about sticking up for the proles but nothing anyone would call an issue.
Actually, there’s a new one where Kamala says she believes Trump is a fascist. Obvious that she’s lying which is sort of a surprise. I’d have thought she was sincere with that view. Or, perhaps she was trying to give the impression that she was thinking deeply, which no doubt caused her alot of
anxiety.
“As for the pollsters they are there to lend credibility if the vote counting somehow gets Fudged enough to alter the outcome.”
That sounds like the Dems may be cheating. Imagine that!
As a lifelong Pennsylvania resident and someone who understands how the politics of my state work and where Trump’s and Harris’ strengths and weaknesses lie, outside of the polling numbers, Harris has the overall advantage. This advantage boils down to:
There are 280,000 more registered Democrats in PA than Republicans.There are over 1 million registered independents and independents are slightly more likely to vote for Harris.In the 2022 mid-term elections Fetterman and Shapiro pretty easily beat the Trump supported Dr. Oz and Mastriano.Female voting registration spiked in PA after the Dobbs decision. Even if the female vote advantage over male voters stays static in PA relative to 2020, which seems unlikely, female voters will outnumber male voters by an estimated 440,000 votes, of which we know Harris maintains a significant gender advantage over Trump with females.Polls are only really good, and good a relative term, at looking at the broad electorate for a given geography from a statistical standpoint. I will not give much credence to a poll in PA that does not weight its respondents relative to voter registration, age, gender, and suburban vs. rural voting population differences. Pennsylvania is hard from a polling perspective, but at the end of the day when you weigh all of the nuances of the PA electorate and the most recent election results from 2022, Harris clearly has more going for her than Trump does in PA.
Certain PA dems decided to vote for Trump, bc they can’t recognize their D party anymore, which betrayed them. Shapiro and Fetterman aren’t good enough. It’s not only in PA. The blue wall crumbled under Biden/Harris. Possibly in CA too.
My family were lifelong Democrats. I remember going on a trip to the place where FDR died in a solemn vacation visit in the 1950s. That sentiment was broken years ago by the Clinton regime. Even my quite old mother now expresses distaste for the party we supported during the years of the last century. A broader change is coming for the party of donkeys. This change is assured since they are quite opposed to having children. Those religious among the people of the US will come into dominance in two generations. My relatives always say the first commandment is: “Be fruitful and multiply.”
If you are from anywhere south of the Mason Dixon Line I would agree that the Democratic Party has changed since the 1950’s. Otherwise, if you are a Northern Democrat and you actually revered FDR, the Democratic Party has not changed that much.
Unfortunately you are delusional. I live in the most conservative part of PA and I know more Republicans than Democrats, but I do know quite a few of both. I have not met one Democrat who is going to vote for Trump, but I know quite a few Republicans who are going to vote for Harris. They are going to vote for Harris, not because they are changing parties, they are going to vote for Harris for the same reason that Jeff Flake and George Will are voting for Harris, to help the Republican Party find its way back to the party of Reagan.
It’s funny how you write a lengthy post but speak of zero issues affecting the outcome of the election.
Have you listened to any of the word salads made by Comrade Kamala?
Do you not care that Comrade Harris lied to us for at least 12-18 months about Brandon’s cognitive decline?
Are you okay with her prosecuting her political opponent?
Have you considered all of the bad things that are happening and will happen for many years to come as the result of 12.5M illegals running across the border? Remember, if she gets elected, that number jumps to at least 20M in addition to the 12-15M who were already here prior to Jan 2021.
Do you understand inflation?
Do you not watch any local news that talks about crime?
Do you not care that she loves having men play against women in sports?
Do you like high home prices, taxes & insurance costs?
If Harris beats Trump, America clearly is not America anymore. Rather, we’re a Banana Republic and we deserve all of the bad consequences that are coming our way over the next 4 years. Ammo up!
Post is too long.
have you just repeated everything you hear on newsmax every day? Jeesh, talk about sheeple
Ruled by one news channel, thinks they’re a thinker. The stupidity is epic.
My post points out all of the relevant data points to a Harris win in PA.
These are just Newsmax talking points and not really based in reality. They are trying to scare you to vote for a felon/sexual predator/insurance fraudster/fascist.
Laughable.
Keep selling “Green Jobs” to a state that is floating on an ocean NatGas.|
PA was close in 2020 and the dems had 1 mil. more registered voters.
R’s picked up 700K voters in 4 yrs. More than enough to close the 2020 gap.
And 2020 featured “Scranton Joe” not Montreal Kamala.
Well, if there’s a reason why the female or independent vote can’t be counted on day one, we should have the result at the end of election day. But if Harris gets the majority of her votes in the early morning hours like Biden did in 2020, then I seriously doubt it will be the female and independent voters who are responsible for them.
There was a significant boom in female new voter registrations in PA following the Dobbs decision. There is zero reason to doubt that the female vote won’t shatter records from a turnout standpoint. Plus, Trump has been doubling down on his appeal to non-college educated rural white males in the late stages of the campaign. That crudeness, off-color humor, and downright mean spiritedness might play with some in his intended audience, but that the same time all of that simply will boost turnout in the Pittsburgh and Philly suburbs, which will determine who wins the state.
Sorry, but I don’t buy the leftist talking points that Trump doesn’t appeal to the majority of college grads and women. And we’ll never know for sure unless it’s a fair election, not another repeat of 2020
The plurality of college graduates are turned off by Trump’s projected hyper alpha male act, his crudeness, his meanness, and his contempt for issues that are important to most young people like Climate Change, freedom of choice for women, and multi-culturalism. In regard to the plurality of women, why would a woman who has both self-respect and an understanding of how women got the right to vote, the right not be discriminated in the workplace, the right to a divorce without having to prove that their husband was unfaithful, and the right to actually borrow money or own real estate without a male co-signor. At all of the inflection points over the last 100+ years which expanded the rights of women it was the progressive/liberal element of the time which delivered those rights.
Jim Cramer flew to CVX Anchor Wild Wells
The Republicans are flooding the zone with fake polls.
Which then causes poll aggregators like Nate Silver to report Trump is ahead.
After the election pundits will realize, ya it actually was a bad idea to have a candidate who alienated: large parts of his base, women, independents, people who don’t like rapists, people who don’t like men who sexually assault underage girls, people that don’t like fascists, people that don’t like people that have good relations with mass-murders, etc.
My cousin’s sister in law’s bunion agrees.
Everytime Harris opens her mouth it’s just simply excruciating to watch. She has the wit of a low level administrator in the LAUSD. Is there anyone on this board that is pro Harris and can make a genuine case for her without invoking Trump?
I think it is interesting how electing public office elected officials is really based on popularity and not intellect.
Doctors, Lawyers, Professional Engineers, CPAs, Nurses, etc all have to pass a standardized test for their public facing profession.
Politicians do not.
I think they all should have to take a standardized test. I think the glaring questions that needs to be added to this test is finance and history. How do you balance a budget and what are the consequences and what happened in history to countries that failed to balance a budget.
I bet over 1/3 or the elected officials would fail.
😉
My only take on this post: I couldn’t get past the dice whose image looked so unlike Kamala Harris I said, “gun to head I’d never have come up with ‘that’s Kamala Harris’ without an offsetting die of Trump to the left’”.
Seriously, that airbrushing/caricature looks nothing like her, they can’t even be fairly honest with the artistry? Shoish.
Nov 5th can’t get here fast enough but that won’t matter, they’ve preannounced that despite mechanization we likely won’t have totals that night, unlike in 1984 when I first voted and they counted hand ballots and had the final tabulation by nearly 9pm CT in Wisconsin. There’s no reason the totals shouldn’t be done here well before midnight even in Madison and Milwaukee. No. LEGITIMATE. Reason.
The overall “feeling” of the election is different than 2020. Momentum and positivity seem to be around Trump this time – it felt far more uncertian in 2020. That’s entirely subjective, but there it is.
You need to count the DNC Cheat factor. That’s about 10%. They are burning up paper at Kinkos with ballots as we speak
I agree, I have serious doubts about voting integrity. Ballot harvesting is almost impossible to prove. Elections have been rigged at the local level in Detroit and Chicago, who knows how many more. If you can’t trust the election system, the legal system, the media and the corrupt political system, what is left?? We are cicrling the drain, perfect enviroment for the fouth turning.
You shouldn’t waste your time voting then… voting’s for suckers and losers!
That is a profound and brilliant statement.
Postal workers were rumored to be hoarding them and leaving them in boxes or in piles by postbox arrays in surburban tracks. People were missing their ballots but somehow voted in 2020. Or in apartments just leaving the ballots out in the mailroom. It takes 3 minutes and a serial port connector to reflash firmware on a voting machine my friend said-with an octopus of connectors you can flash 10 at a time I bet. Remember in PA when the warehouse of machines was broken into? But “no sign” of damage or tapering. LOL
Is there a plausible scenerio where the candidate that loses Pennsylvania still wins the electorial college?
I can’t see it
Only if Trump loses PA but wins MI and/or WI.
Imagine an AI system that creates online and MSM propaganda and conducts political polls, then learns what works the best to influence the polls using nearly unlimited data to self adjust its efforts. The Bernays AI. Too late to save poor Kammy though.
Imagine an AI system that replaces our corrupt politicians that makes decisions that are rational and beneficial to the country. Not what keeps them in power or lines their pockets with bribe money under the guise of campaign donations.
The fact that 50% are voting for Kamala is a shock after the mess of the last 4 years. So Trump’s lead is so large that they are unable to cheat to win but just cheat enough to make it look like a tie
All she needs is PA, MI and WI and for TeamTrump to stay asleep and let her win Omaha.
Ever consider how many are anti-Trump and not necessarily pro-Harris?
Doesn’t matter
the “anti-Trump” crowd OWN the Biden/Harris disaster from start-to-finish.
zero-credibility & hiding under a large rock… they’ll stay home just like the demoralized Dem reptiles.
*50% of voters.
Odds are participation will be in the neighborhood of 60%, so a plurality will still choose neither A nor B.
Other than one of them getting the pomp and circumstance of being President, nobody is winning anything. The life of the average American will not improve under either of them since neither has explained beyond layers and layers of platitudes exactly how.
One of my elderly neighbors stopped me the other day ranting about abortion. I’m assuming she watches a lot of TV with abortion ads? I don’t watch TV but that’s my guess.
I kept my mouth shut but abortion should be the last thing she should be ranting about. The last time she could have been in the market for an abortion was 40 years ago. It seems the topic however helps her set aside facing her real problems which are her failing small business and lingering medical issues.
Abortion Industry now is about taking a new car and selling off the parts for a big profit.
How dare she have empathy for others! Jesus wept…
Trump will win as long as there isn’t “domestic interference” with the election.
You know how the US always accuses Russia/China/Iran of interfering in our elections? That’s because ‘it takes one to know one’ and the CIA regularly interferes in foreign elections. It’s projection.
So what makes you think the CIA and the ‘deep state’ doesn’t do that right here at home? Of course they do.
Which president does the ‘deep state’ want? Somebody who’s an easily controlled puppet or someone who is not as controllable?
Trump is going down in greasy flames that everyone but his simps can see.
Haha Hoho Hehe!!!
And yet, in that entire article, the red wave that didn’t come to shore in 2022 is never mentioned.
Do I know? Of course not, but, recency bias tells me that it’s possible that the polls now are now undercounting a “silent majority” that think Trump is the wrong choice, but, don’t tell pollsters how they feel.
We’ll find out on November 5th (or 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th……)
Agree, not a single post or comment on how there is a long list of republicans now endorsing or voting for Harris.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/09/18/over-100-ex-gop-officials-endorse-harris-heres-the-full-list/
Not a word about the never-Trumpers, how are they being counted in the polls?
Lol. Now they love war monger Liz Cheney. Zero self awareness
And now the Republicans all hate her. And her father. Virtually all republicans were big warmongers in the 2000’s, questioning the patriotism of anyone who dared to question anything. Talk about Self Awareness!
Liz lost her seat by what 40 points? She was never loved. Neither was her dad.
She was loved, just like her dad. She won her primary in 2016 by 18 percent and her general election by 32 percentage points. In 2018, she won her primary by 48 points and the general by over 30. In 2020, She won her primary by 48 points again and the general by over 40.
It was only after she crossed Trump that she became “unloved”.
Republicans were the warmongers of the 2000’s, and now they claim to be the non-warring party. They were never for Tariffs, and always for “free trade” and are now completely opposite. Trump is completely opposite from the Republicans that I grew up with (Reagan, Bush).
But, the biggest thing is not proposing new policies. It’s his lack of moral character and constant exaggerating and lying.
Facts before swine…
I think your narrative speaks more to the breakdown of the RINO machine in Wyoming than to Cheneys being “loved”.
We all know they’re not Republicans – they’re Trumpers.
Simps.
Populists own the GOP now.
The neoCon/country club crowd are shuffling off to the graveyard. Good riddance.
So let me get this straight You’re saying Darth Cheney the mastermind of 911 was loved ? Give me a break
Those Never Trumper R’s still are for war and against tariffs. That they’re now finding a home on Team Blue tells us all we need to know about the DC Uniparty.
It’s lies and stupidity all the way down.
Those Uniparty Never Trumpers are still there. They’re just on Team Blue now.
Problem for Team Blue is that they;ve been replaced by far more Working and Middle class voters who used to be democrats and who are now voting for Trump.
They are a forbidden topic, because they are proof to the trumpers that trump worship is stupid.
My opinion is that, if Harris wins, it will have been “silent” women who are the difference. I just voted in a super red district and the women in the line seemed enthusiastic, and not in a Trumpian manner. We will see!
Who are these “silent women”? Have you been inside a corporate office in the past 15 years for even one day?
My idea of these “Silent Women” are women who have Trump loving husbands, and go along with it, but, in the voting booth, do their own thing.
Correct
Let me know when a woman allows you within 50 feet of you, incel.
Please read up on Harris’ husband’s brutality; the information about it has been trickling out over the last several weeks. I am starting to think that Harris is so incoherent because she is beaten. She is afraid to make direct statements. So maybe these “silent women” can detect that and feel sympathy. However, it does not make Harris a good candidate for president.
Never Trumpers are a media created fiction. Move along.
I dont think Kinzinger shows his face much these days at the Joliet, Rockdale or Channahon (all IL) Supper Clubs and fish fries, for some reason.
He belongs in a better state, with a younger constituency.
He belongs under a heavy rock.
I believe that there is good reason to bet on the post election post script reading “women vote in record numbers” and “no one saw the number of cross over Republicans who voted for Harris.”
The reason the MSM doesnt cover it is b/c their are plenty of dems that will be turned off by the Cheneys in their corner and start to realize that there really is a Deep State and it’s not something to vote for.
Yes, we silent majority keep to ourselves.
Nate sounds like every stock prognosticator. They tell you what will happen and also why it might go the other way. Then take credit for how the scenario plays out.
He should get his mind right by roaming around the Midtown gentleman’s clubs with Cramer on election night.
CYA much, Nate?
CYA much, Nate?
I have this Prez election as meaningless. // Read the Fate of Empires (Sir John Glubb, 1976) online PDF. It’s but 24 (26 total) easy read pages. On page 15 into 16 read XXIV The Arab decline, especially regarding “the [negative] influence of women” (pars. 4-7). On page 24 read the Summary to cut to the quick, and especially note “An influx of foreigners.” The End of the US is nigh. It will be Very Ugly. Prepare as inclined. p☮️✝️
That was a great read and so on spot. Smart people see the writing on the wall and move to where they will be treated best.
Gold and Silver Lots of it And lead
Why does any of this matter? Just vote and get on with your life.
#Investing
Lack of any other kind of identity or purpose. It’s the way of the cult.
The danger for Trump supporters is that they will assume that if Trump doesn’t outperform the polls like he did in 2016 and 2020 that there’s a conspiracy against him.
In reality, the real issue is that these polls are now generally adjusted for that outperformance. What if those polls OVER COMPENSATED for his outperformance and are actually over counting his leads? The chances of that happened in not zero and I don’t think many Republican voters will accept that on election day if it happens.
There just aren’t enough data points for the pollsters to use to calibrate their polling methodology with. Presidential elections are extremely rare, only occurring once ever four years.
It’s close for sure.
In 2020 Trump received more votes than any candidate in history other than Biden (cough, cough). Why would that number be any lower now and what makes you think Kamala can possibly get more?
They’re gonna cry just like they have all along… and some of them will pull some stupid terrorist crap in retribution. Meal Team Six stands ready.
They will go to jail, and they will rot there.
Funny how when Trump won in 2016 he said it was a decisive blowout, but when the EVs were basically reversed in 2020 for Biden: “a lead that barely let him eke out victory in the Electoral College”
And yet all I hear from conservatives about media reporting is they feel victimized that the press is doing everything to elect Harris. It just doesn’t make any sense. This whole country doesn’t make sense any longer. No wonder 25% of Americans feel Civil War is at our doorstep.
This country never made sense beginning with the european invasion, theft of land, slaughter of natives, enslavement of africans, treatment of women, and on and on.
Billy Joel had it right…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFTLKWw542g
Random chaos from large numbers of independent people all acting in their own best interests rarely if ever makes sense.
In other words, there never was any ‘plan’. Despite that, it won’t prevent people from trying to discern one from looking at a bunch of historical facts and data.
By that measure does any country “make sense” that’s just the history of humanity in general – why insist it’s a unique condition of the United States?
You’re right Israel never did make any sense
They are permanent victims, drawing their social security checks and complaining about the government that cuts them. Stupid, scared, willfully ignorant old people that we will be rid of soon.
Scarf those cheeseburgers, boomers.
Everyone I don’t like is Hitler.
There are an infinite number of fake Hitlers. Even Hitler wasn’t Hitler.
Well, he did build the Autobahn.
You mean like Netanyahoo