For those of you who think Nate Silver is a shill for Democrats, please consider this chart. 
A whopping 39.7 percent of Silver’s scenarios in the battleground states are a clean sweep by Trump or Harris.
The single most likely scenario is a 24.4 percent chance that Trump gets a clean sweep.
That the second most likely case of a 15.3 percent sweep by Harris is an indication that Silver believe all of the polls may be off in the same direction undercounting or overcounting one party or the other.
Electoral College Votes
Harris does not need a clean sweep of the battleground states to win, but she probably does need a clean sweep of the Blue Wall.
It’s an interesting setup. Many will disagree with Silver’s dice here.
But assume Silver is wrong somewhere on the lead chart. Is it Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Nevada.
Silver’s dice say Trump is more likely to lose Nevada than any of the other battleground states. Nevada is the least important state to Trump.
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October 20: The Most Accurate Pollster in 2020 Has Blockbuster Polls for Trump
October 21: In California, Harris Is Down 21 Percentage Points With Latinos vs 2020
He IS a shill. He’s just herding with all the garbage biased pollsters so he can come back and play the game again next time.
The Witness Protection Program does not let me talk to pollesters, campaign workers, or bank tellers. If anyone from the Gambino Family asks about Louey the Lip, tell them that you put no reliance in poll surveys.
Some woman on the forum yesterday was marveling at how much her childhood home in Illinois was worth. Big deal. It worth way less than the median U.S. price.
My childhood home in Florida was 2 blocks from the beach in Boca Raton. Back in the 1960s it was a modest middle class neighborhood that everyday people could afford to buy in. It last sold for $78K in the late 1970s. Today that same house is worth $2.6 million.
Remember when Neil Diamond sang about how low the rents were in California because it was a cheap place to live? Those were the days.
Gee our old LaSalle ran great.
As a Trump voter I can admit that Trump can be an abrasive blowhard at times and he can be easily baited in a debate. I do think, though, that these shortcomings are somewhat overblown by the media. That said I find it interesting that no one on team Kamala can admit that she’s lacking in charisma and does not seem to have the capacity to think or respond in the moment without fumbling or regurgitating word salad. It’s rather like Biden’s alleged ability to run rings around his 20 year old interns up until the senility that we all knew was there became impossible to hide at the debate.
This election is not going to be close. The Dems installed a moron to replace a cognitively impaired geriatric and can’t figure out why people don’t want either.
I hope you’re right, but I remember Democrats saying Hillary would have a historical landslide in 2016. Take nothing for granted. Get out friendly voters you know.
Would be fun to run a betting game on what either of these arses is likely to do if elected. What are the chances the fry cook will seriously pursue creating a public employee caste that doesn’t pay income taxes (along with table waiters and Uber drivers)? What are the chances either will find a magic formula for rescuing the country from unsustainable debt, deficits, and war? If the election doesn’t turn our stomachs, what about the aftermath when someone has to pretend to govern?
Seriously? You’re questions have already been answered by the fact that Kamala (if you can trust anything she says) said she really doesn’t question anything Joe did and will do more of the same (which means she’ll continue to let Obama and his pals continue to call the shots). Trump spent four years in office and has a track record. Maybe you should take a minute to think about what he did. You think you could do better?
The polls that define an election are undercounting Trump’s support, because of the stigma against him, and because there is a subsurface bias by workers who are mainly leftist in their orientation.
First, let’s address the stigma. The rapacious media, addressing its ever-present concerns about a second Trump presidency, has slandered The Donald with an almost glee-like emotion. These distortions — and they are almost constant — make it clear that all “right-thinking” people should avoid following Trump and assume the submissive position before whatever candidate the Democrats fling up. People don’t like stigmas. They hide from them. Therefore it’s safe to say when a pollster asks, “who will you vote for?”, some of the respondents will lie and say undecided or even Harris. Even 3% hiding could tip the election. It happened in 2016.
Second, there’s the subsurface Leftist bias by poll workers. Poll workers frame the questions based on their own feelings, their bias coming clear only after you examine the questions closely. Manacled to the post of truth, the average voter cannot escape the presuppositions of the pollster. (You can read more of my writings by going to dark-dot-sport-dot-blog … where -dot- represents a period.)
Polls are meaningless. Vote.
I’m officially at the point where the best use of my time is not voting but finding loop holes and other legal nuances in whatever new policies are thrown at me by either side.
The one I’m most proud of during Biden is giving my employer documentation from my doctor that I need blood work before taking the vaccine. There was a wait time for blood work for 8 weeks. As the appointment got closer, I would go to another doctor and repeat. Eventually Biden and my employer threw in the towel. I won.
Voting usually only takes me ~ 10 minutes or less. I would never vote for Harris because at a minimum she acquiesced to Biden’s totalitarian vaccine mandate. In my opinion, if she had been president then, the fascist mandate would have been enforced in an even more draconian way.
We are talking about two different things. I get the importance of voting to impact personal circumstances. What I’m talking about is accepting whoever wins and creating your own circumstances based off of their policies.
You no longer have to fight what you are against. You work to shape and mold what is thrown at you to create the circumstance you want.
For example, I own real estate on the side. If Kamala wins and gives these massive free loans to home buyers great. I don’t like it but I can absolutely work with it. I will be selling properties that’s for damn sure but the price is going up. If they get 20K then it’s going up 20K. I get back what was stolen from me. I win.
“Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There’s no guarantee any of this will work.”
Quote selected from Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine.
Maybe if the Democrats actually put forth reasons to vote for them rather than saying you can’t vote for X, they would be doing better.
The goofy American people does not vote by merit anymore-but by incumbent appearance, promises, lies, cackling, artistic presentations etc.
IOW-people vote for the “funny “candidate propped up by the immoral and corrupted news media.
Couple this with the corrupted voting system-and you get the idea!
“The goofy American people does not vote by merit anymore-but by incumbent appearance, promises, lies, cackling, artistic presentations etc.”
Check out political writings and cartoons from the 19th century. Things have changed less than you think.
“Merit”?
Check out the 1960 election.
How people can march into a voting booth and pull the lever for Creepy Kamala boggles the mind. She was a horrible VP of a horrible administration. The same cast of characters will infest her administration guaranteeing more wars, endless government spending and off course the resulting inflation. A vote for Kamala is a vote for a race to the bottom.
“How people can march into a voting booth and pull the lever for Creepy Kamala boggles the mind.”
Noone does.
Some may pull the lever AGAINST Crazy Trump.
Others against Creepy Kamala.
It’s hard to imagine any lifeform with sufficient neurological function to manage both inhaling AND exhaling, will ever pull a lever FOR any of them.
Hillary was supposed to win in 2016.
Trump was supposed to be dead on 7/13/2024.
Deepstate doing improv.
Just for fun, I took a look at all the battle ground states at the link below supposedly reporting real-time data.
The blue wall and North Carolina all had unusual volume of women voting early (requesting early ballots). It’s likely Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Arizona and Georgia also had very large women turnout early ballots.
The only state that didn’t exhibit this behavior was Nevada so I will assume Trump will win Nevada.
Couple this data with the fact that many of these states voted to preserve abortion rights and the pattern seems to make sense.
The pattern for the surge of early votes was female, income>100k, and white. I see no boost in “renters,” latinos, blacks or other groups except Asians requesting early ballots.
Data Source: https://www.l2-data.com/earlyreturn/
You are assuming those voters wouldnt typically vote on election day
Trump is going to win NV and PA. The math isnt on harris side on registration data. Maybe she gets lucky and wins the rest of the swing states but i doubt it – internally the kh team thinks michigan may vote to the right of PA – if that happens no way she wins WI
I am assuming early voting will determine how voting will go on election day. Clearly women are far more enthusiastic about this election than the last one, why?
It could be something as simple as it’s because they are all back to working now and with families (kids) at home or in school they don’t have time to spend 1-2 hrs going to the polls in person on a Tuesday night.
Despite what some on this blog endlessly bleat about, it can’t be abortion because Kamala hasn’t even hinted at trying to create a law about it at the National level because she knows it would be DOA even if somehow Democrats controlled all 3 houses (something they Bidens 1st 2 years and not a peep about abortion laws because they couldn’t get it passed even in their own party). Trump would face the exact same DOA if he tried something on the Republican side which is why he’s said he’s happy leaving it at the State level.
The 2 candidates themselves are more or less exactly the same as 2016 and 2020 so it’s not like there is some fresh great candidate out there with amazing ideas or vision of the future.
Interesting theory so why aren’t men doing early ballots? And you clearly haven’t been paying attention to what Harris has been saying at her rallies re:abortion. You’re just totally out of touch Tim and it’s plain sad.
And of course nothing will be done just like Trump won’t do 10% of the things he’s promising but that won’t stop people voting for him.
It’s possible that women regard voting as another “errand” that has a deadline. So you take care of it right away.
Also, was a bit nervous about going to a polling place this year – don’t know why exactly…..just preferred to vote from home.
Women are far more likely to be responsible for picking up the kids/making meals than men. Especially divorced women of which there are oodles of in this day and age.
As for Abortion, why is it that everyone claims that’s so important but at the same time seem to think women are OK with transgenders competing with them in sports or hanging out in their bathrooms? You’d think all 3 of those things would be VERY important to women. Yet if you vote for Kamala, you are absolutely voting for transgenders in your bathrooms, competing against you in sports etc. With DEI a Democrat priority its more and more likely that it’s coming soon to a bathroom or sporting event near you. On the other hand, Trump is definitely planning to put a stop to transgenders in bathrooms and sports so how come no one thinks women might be voting for Trump for that reason?
For what it’s worth, EVERY woman I know is aghast at the idea of transgenders in womens (or worse girls in schools) bathrooms and competing against women in sports. But some women I know are against abortion just like some I know are for it. So seems to me that’s just as big an issue.
Women find Harris accessible & friendly towards them. Makes them feel more politically engaged.
I am worried that the Blue Wall states will go for her. There’s a reason they’re called the Blue Wall. They have democrat big-city mayors, democrat governors and democrat AG’s. There’s also a reason she’s spending 25 times more money than Trump in Omaha – because she knows Omaha matters. Unless Trump tips an unexpected state (MN, NM, VA, ME), if she carries Omaha and the 3 Blue Wall states, she wins, 270-268 even if Trump wins overwhelmingly in the other 4 swing states and even if he wins the popular vote. Trump is dicking around in California, Colorado and New York, but sleeping on Nebraska’s 2nd district, proving once again that democrats are the evil party, but republicans are the stupid party.
Shes is going to lose PA look at the registration data. Look at the mail absentee request numbers in Michigan – shes behind there too (albeit closer) its a disaster unless she gets lucky in NC and holds GA
What registration data are you looking at? PA has the same trend, more women requesting early ballots at a higher rate than men. Why?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/key-battleground-state-voter-registration-data-shows-influential-shifts-favoring-gop/ar-AA1sJx7U
He isnt dicking around there. Hes campaigning for congressman in co and ca and ny that are all close.
He’ll wish he’d disregarded NY, CA & CO if she wins the three Blue Wall states and he loses Omaha by 3,000 votes. He can win GA, NC, AZ & NV by 10 points each and still lose the election.
blue wall has significant water damage and mold.
The reddish dude won’t be allowed to win case closed ,too unpredictable for the elite in power now ,they’re is world agreements on peace and war since the end of the second world wars.quoting Eric Weinstein a republican.and overall the voting exercise is entertainment for the Super Bowl people. An illusion to keep them happy.
True, but the Jewish oligarchs who have a big say in the election outcome and they are concerned over Israel’s future. They think Trump will be better at dealing with this crisis and thus they will set aside destroying America for now since their darling brat is in trouble.
“For those of you who think Nate Silver is a shill for Democrats, please consider this chart.”
I did, and Silver is STILL A BIG TIME DEM SHILL.
He gives 15 scenarios. Of those, he’s got Harris winning the majority of scenarios, 8. And why do the scenarios only add to 71%? What scenarios is he leaving out? Are there really several other states in play that could make up a 29% shift in the final electoral college vote?
Just because he games The System to project Trump has a 24% chance of sweeping the 7 battleground states, doesn’t mean he’s NOT hiding his lean towards Harris. Only the most fervent Trump supporter would believe he’s going to sweep those 7 states.
And right on his front page, he still has Comrade Kamala up 48.8 to 47.2. He calls the massive shift in momentum to Trump incremental and not a sea change.
Again, the VAST majority of polling these days is part of The System to make it look like Dems are ahead, so we can collectively rationalize the sudden, last-minute run up in votes for Comrade Kamala to blunt the WTF moment we all MAY well experience in the hours / days after Nov 5th.
Nate Silver is literally tip at the end of the spear when it comes to The System illegally shifting elections to Dems.
Seems like most GOPers believe if Democrats didn’t always cheat GOP would win 100% of elections. Absolutism at its finest.
~ 15 counties decide each election nowadays. I’m absolutely convinced that Dems are cheating in these counties. With a candidates like Sleepy Joe Biden & Comrade Kamala, they can’t win otherwise. The UOCAVA ballots are going to be a prime example this time around.
The UOCAVA ballots were a big factor in the 2020 election too, it turns out. Imagine, foreigners deciding who our next president will be.
I read this and laugh at the probabilities. 29.4%? That makes it sound like they have some great model that is fantastic at prediction. They don’t. Perfect example of garbage in and garbage out.
The real answer is that Nate doesn’t know who will win!
Good post, but IMHO yes he does. He’s part of The System that’s doing everything they can to illegally shift votes & justification for a Comrade Kamala win.
Nate is a staunch Democrat but he’s a smart guy and knows no matter who wins we slide further into debt and further into funding unwinnable forever wars. Even if he is way off again nobody will remember and he can open up shop again.
Best case would be Trump as president and that black Nazi guy as governor of North Carolina.
I cannot believe this nation would elect this man again. Three four star Generals, Republicans each, who’ve dedicated their lives to this nation have labeled him a threat.
The man makes a mockery of our country.
Are these same generals OK with the knowledge that their own experts estimated that the actions of the Biden-Harris admin in Ukraine raised the risk of nuclear war to 50%? Harris has stated that she wouldn’t have done anything different to Pedo Joe so she will continue to poke the bear and damn the consequences. Trump for all his faults never started a war and had detente with Russia. And those RINO generals should be treated as treasonous scum.
These days four star generals are ass-kissing climbers who won’t buck the system. Their opinion is a perfect negative indicator, just as the endorsement Trump should be most proud of is that of Dick Cheney. Being rejected by one of the most vile warmongering pieces of shit to ever be part of the US government is a badge of honor.
THANK YOU.
Trump knows more than everyone else. I am drinking the Cool-Aid, too. He knows more than the doctors and the scientists. And he has a good brain.
And they’re 4-Star DEI Generals to boot.
We get it, you hate everything that doesn’t exactly agree with your world view.
And love & lean into every position that’s different from yours?
Imagine the real men who fought in wars seeing people in 2024 calling four star generals worthless sycophants. They would strangle every last ounce of air from you before dropping your lifeless body on the scrap heap.
They ARE worthless sycophants. They were USELESS on 9/11.
Oh yeah, Rainbow Milley is super terrifying.
It’s far more likely that those real men would be appalled at the state of the military under these pencil pushing 4 stars. Being a veteran myself, I know I am.
Breathe, son. It’s just an election.
Nothing broke during his first term. In fact by most accounts it was better than Biden’s term. The president is just a figurehead anyway and the nation runs mostly on autopilot
He won’t win. Don’t worry.
A threat to their cash flow from the neocon inspired defense industry maybe. Or you could get lucky and a military junta will run things.
Rob, 26 down votes in 6 hours. Awesome, dude! That’s like a new record. That’s almost everyone who posts here on Mishtalk. People obviously think you bat “you know what” crazy.
And you just believe them?
The same architects of the 2008 financial crisis and endless wars all over the world have your endorsement?
Dedicated their lives to this nation just because they are four star generals? Have you forgotten the Afghanistan papers where the military leadership continued to tell the public that everything was going well while complaining to each other what a clusterfuck it truly was?
When was the last time the US military actually defended the US? I think it was during the wars with the Plains Indians. On 9/11 they went 0 for 4 when we needed them the most. Then they lied to the 9/11 Coverup Commission. Even the civilians went 1 for 4 if you believe the official account.
Colonel Nicholson can save the day.
Three 4 star sycophants who kiss establishment ass for advancement. Noble and honorable warriors like Col. MacGregor get squashed while ass kissers are promoted. And dumb rubes can’t tell the emperor has no clothes.
Let’s review the results of the work of the 4-star Generals. They’ve been around since the losses in Korea (tie), Vietnam (loss), Afghanistan (loss), Iraq (?), etc. When did we win one? But we are a couple of $Trillion more in debt thanks to their brilliance. I forgot, we did beat somebody in Grenada. Now the Yemini’s control the Red Sea, we are spending $Billions in Ukraine and it will all go down the tubes when Z has to sue for peace and lose 1/3 of his country.
But, check the current resumes’ of those 4-stars and you will find them on the Boards of the defense contractors, making presentations in the Pentagon to urge the purchase of whatever weapon system their employers make. $250,000 per year in Directors fees and large stock options will change your mind.
I cant belive a thinking person could look at the border and foreign policy since trump left office and think trump is the one who is a threat.
Are these the same generals that swore up and down that Hunter’s laptop had all of the signs of Russian disinformation? That demanded that every troop gets the clot shot? Even though they were in the high risk group – young men 18-24.
Get better educated and turn off the tv.
Im pretty sure the womenfolk are gonna pull this out for Kamala as they are getting a little tired of old white men chaining them to a house for 18 years nursing babies. Just like the teen guys whose butts were on the line in Vietnam and how THEY became politicized, the women are gonna have their turn. The women already were the cause of Repub losses in 2022 in several states.
In your mind, Trump will make them all wear Handmaid’s bonnets.
In reality, post-Dobbs, abortion laws have become more lenient than ever. In Minnesota, you can abort the kid until she graduates from high school. Yay!
Meanwhile in most southern states they still blame the woman/12 year old for their rape and incest, and require them to look in the face of their child and see their rapist for at least 18 years. There has been no “softening” of anything. Fake news!
Yes, all women want free abortions, have no children, let men dominate women’s sports to the point of erasure, and give it to that damn patriarchy!
Youre getting the hang of it
LeBoof so wrong on so much. Consistent though
Thank you for a little credit
I think you may be right. Women are very easily manipulated by the media and their innate desire to want to fit in and thus can easily be stampeded.
A large portion of modern social problems are precisely because of the deference to women and the resulting effemization of society since the ‘sexual revolution’
I hope you’re collecting rent from Trump. How long has he been in your head?
giving women voting rights was very dangerous move…..
You might win the trophy for down votes, Scott!
He may not be a shill (this time)…but seriously, a 15.3% probability of a Kamala sweep? What kinds of fuzzy math and statistics were used to arrive at that figure? Of course she “could” still win, but there’s ZERO chance that she sweeps the swing states at this point.
It makes some sense.
Then that may be the result.
Is there no chance of pollsters overcounting Trump fearing another 2016 or 2020?
Slim to none. Step back from the stats and look at Kamala.
Best post of the day, Patrick!
Silver was behind the curve for several months, and now that it’s so in his face that Trump is leading he has no choice. So to pretend he’s un-biased is a bit disingenuous.
He has to save face because he was unbelievably off the mark the last two times. But of course even a blindfolded dart player can bullseye this one at this point.
And when Trump loses, you will think the election was stolen. LOL
Will you think the Russians interefered if he wins?