Mike McDonnell deflates the GOP hope for a Nebraska electoral college winner-take-all scenario. This could be extremely important.
The Blue Wall Plus the Blue Dot
If Harris were to win the three Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Trump were to win the states he is ahead in, plus Nevada, there would be a 269-269 electoral college tie, IF Nebraska was a winner-take-all take.
Based on House tiebreaker rules Trump would then win. Effectively, this would mean Harris needs 270 to win but Trump only 269.
Democrats Will Hold the Blue Dot
The Nebraska Examiner reports State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024.
The Republican push to change how Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into political reality Monday as a key lawmaker, State Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he won’t support the change.
McDonnell, of Omaha, said he had heard from people passionate about the issue who live in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District. But he said he did not hear enough to move him off his original position against the switch.
“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live, or what party they support,” McDonnell said in a statement. “I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”
McDonnell said he told Gov. Jim Pillen his stance and suggested that the Legislature put winner-take-all to a vote of the people, as a proposed constitutional amendment, so people can decide the issue “once and for all.”
Nebraska and Maine are the only states that award a single Electoral College vote to the winner in each congressional district, plus two votes to the statewide winner of the presidential popular vote. Nebraska has split off votes twice in four presidential elections.
Pillen had pledged to call a special session if he could secure the 33 votes needed to overcome a filibuster to change to winner-take-all. All five of Nebraska’s GOP congressional delegates wrote a letter urging state lawmakers to pass such a move.
Political Calculus
For McDonnell, the calculus could be partly political. He has openly flirted with running for mayor of Omaha as early as 2025. His likely opponent, Republican incumbent Jean Stothert, has said she supports the switch to winner-take-all.
McDonnell was a Democrat, turned Republican. I suspect he will now run for Mayor of Omaha.
Maine has run out of time to eliminate the Red Dot. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen ran into a filibuster.
Nate Silver has Trump’s odds of winning NE-2 at 18 percent.
With that, it is very hard to get a 269-269 tie.
Mathematical Odds
I discussed the odds of a tie in The Odds of an Electoral College Tie Are About to Soar, Who Would Win?
I arrived at 2-3 percent currently. But if the Blue Wall broke hard for Harris, and Nevada for hard for Trump (not that unlikely), the odds of a tie could have gotten to the low double digits.
It’s still possible to concoct a tie, but none of the possibilities make any sense.
If Harris wins the Blue Wall plus the normal Blue states, she would win 270 to 268.
A Blue Dot turned Red would have made that outcome 269 to 269 and rules are such that right now, Trump would win ties.
Take Heart Republicans, Mark Zandi Says Harris Will Win
Yesterday, I commented Take Heart Republicans, Mark Zandi Says Harris Will Win
Mark Zandi is the near-perfect contrarian indicator. I am wondering if anyone is better.
Interesting, when you play with likely outcomes on 270towin interactive map, the 1% is a possibility.
Also shows most likely outcome is Harris needs a clean sweep of three “rust belt” states to win. All effectively tied by MOE.
From statistics class, chance of heads on three coin flip are one in eight (or one in sixteen – need coffee).
I see the “CIA downvoters are out in force
The whole thing is ridiculous. This isn’t a state or district-level race. There is one president for all Americans. The president should be elected by popular vote or at least proportional electoral college representation in all states like Idaho currently does. It’s insane that a few votes in a handful of states decide who will be the president for all Americans.
What, you don’t like an antiquated, archaic system?
I think the election could be decided in the middle east. Things are heating up and Harris is going to have to explicitly support Israel which will cost her votes. Trump benefits from this.
Iran is 1,000 km from Lebanon. Their previous attack fail. Their infrastructure in Syria destroyed. If they try to support their #1 proxy their army will be slaughtered in Turkey Shooting. For one year Bibi dismantled Hezbollah assets accumulated in the past 20 years, covered by the US. S.Lebanon population moved north bc they became terrorists human Shield. From the “River to the Sea” in frog cooking. Yesterday the IDF sausaged 1,600 targets. Hezbollah is blind and rudderless. Nasrallah was enslaved by Iran. The Shia cauldron collapsed. Nasrallah might cut his losses to stay alive and f**ck Hamas. The lame duck president might sign a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah before Jan 20, but after the Nov election, bc Sinwar might be dead. In the ME it’s all about power, not bs.
MBS king Abdullah and UAE salivate.
1D SPY : Tri stars are rare.
Are you not entertained????
But wait, there’s much more: at a time when not even the shoeshine boy wants to be within a ten foot pole of Chinese stocks, the PBOC governor also said that – in a last ditch attempt to bail out the country’s stock market – it will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from PBOC to buy stocks.
Brokers, funds and insurers will be allowed to pledge assets in exchange for liquidity for funds and buy stocks; the PBOC will also set up a separate specialized refinancing facility for listed companies and major shareholders to buy back shares, raise holdings. In other words, Beijing is greenlighting direct intervention in the stock market to prop up stocks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-panics-cuts-multiple-rates-and-reserve-ratio-requirements-goes-all-prop-stocks
What happens if inflation rips higher?
“Prices charged for goods and services are both rising at the fastest rates for six months, with input costs in the services sector – a major component of which is wages and salaries – rising at the fastest rate for a year,” the report said.
“The “reacceleration of inflation” suggests that “the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target as it seeks to sustain the economic upturn,” the report said.
“The survey’s price gauges meanwhile serve as a warning that, despite the PMI indicating a further deterioration of the hiring trend in September, the FOMC may need to move cautiously in implementing further rate cuts,” the report said.
Shale oil = 9M barrels per day… we use roughly 100M barrels per day globally… conventional oil is well past peak… shale has been the only significant source of new oil for well over a decade now…
Surely this should be of great concern? Much more important that the fake election … or any other issue of the day:
What “staggers” me, however, is how quickly those new wells now decline. In the chart above, from the mighty Permian, all wells drilled 18 months ago in 2022, by mid 2023 had declined 80%, from 848 BOPD down to 177 BOPD. 2023 wells appear to have even higher decline rates. They come on like lions but it isn’t very long before they are getting lamby.
Growth then, is fleeting, to say the least.
If we ever stopped drilling this stuff it’d be gone before you know it, as evidenced by the two charts below https://www.oilystuff.com/single-post/the-hamster-wheel
Let’s not forget Trump’s Operation Warp Speed… and Biden continued with it:
If You Don’t See It Now…It Is Willful Blindness(at best)
https://conspiracysarah.substack.com/p/if-you-dont-see-it-nowit-is-willful
If You Don’t See it Now… It is a Choice.Anecdotal observations from Atlanta.https://conspiracysarah.substack.com/p/if-you-dont-see-it-now-it-is-a-choice
Why don’t you focus your attention on real problems like EEE.
https://www.cdc.gov/eastern-equine-encephalitis/symptoms-diagnosis-treatment/index.html
Don’t worry, there’s no vax for EEE yet and it’s spreading all over the east coast. Oh and there is dengue fever, west nile virus, and fungal infections aspergillus fumigatus, candida, nakaseomyces glabratus and trichophyton indotineae. There are no vax for these either and they are spreading rapidly.
Find me some conspiracy sites for some treatments on these and pronto!
It may be difficult to get a 269 tie, but with the letter by the 700, it is easy to get election corruption.
The best argument for the electoral college: Do you really want the residents of NYC, Chicago and Los Angeles determining who is the president? The voters in those cities seem to have no cares that their cities are falling apart, the schools are terrible, the homelessness is rampant and crime is out of control.
As for Trump’s chances, look at the economy. The majority of people have been taking it on the chin with celery stick and Headboard. They’re done with D’s.
I’m not American but follow from outside the country. Interesting to see the Nebraska governor argue against ‘winner take all’ (I think I agree it is more democratic). Just wish he could convince California/NY/NJ to do the same.
Nebraska is full of sanctimonious Republicans like Ben Sasse who would rather lose honorably than win. Democrats would never do that.
We might as well resign ourselves to the vacuous puppet pants suit being installed as President.
It likely ushers in the end of the Fourth Turning
I actually voted today. Once Steve Simons (our Secretary of State) and his people see the contents of my ballot I am sure it will magically disappear into the trash.
I used to have about 90% confidence in our voting system
I am now at zero
There’s been no polling out of NE2, so Nate Silver is pulling his prediction out of his ass. Trump could win it, but he would have to try. He won it in 2016 by two points. Lost it in ‘20 by 6. If he does win it, he might not need it.
Omaha is consistently heavy Democratic. So is Austin, Texas.
To deny that is delusional.
NE2 has a GOP congressman and Trump won it in 2016. Since 2020 it has been redrawn to rope in more Republican voters. Trump has a shot there, but only if he tries.
election theatrics just front for ILLEGAL BALLOT STUFFING TAKING PLACE IN FRONT OF US
3 states now called for Harris
Arizona – big ballot stuffing, Wisconsin, Georgia
feel free to stuff ballot of your choosing
Real-time free market data. DJT is down 10% today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Where’s the enthusiasm for this awesome social media company on the cusp of a great victory by its dear leader?
Anyone that thinks Trump is gonna win should load up on shares now and get rich as soon as he wins.
Trump is going to take Omaha so no worries about this RINO flake
I just added the odds.
Trump’s odds of winning NE-2 about 18 percent.
Possible but very unlikely.
Assume he does.
Trump would also likely win Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, if not all three.
He won by 2% in 2016 yet only 18% chance. Humm.
Trump lost Omaha by 9% to Biden in 2020. Don’t you think that’s a better indicator of Omaha in 2024 than 2016?
The district has been redrawn since 2020. 538 describes the change as moving it from even to +3R. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/nebraska/ The Cook PVI still shows it as even.
I asked what makes 2016 a better indicator than 2020. You have not answered that question.
(the only answer in this context is one person’s desire to see a specific outcome)