In case of a tie, the House of Representatives would decide. This favors Trump. But what are the odds? I make a guess.
The above map is not contrived or convoluted. It is the current state of affairs except for Nebraska and a small lead for Harris in Nevada, reversed in the above map. However….
Please note Republicans Push to Change Nebraska’s Electoral System
Nebraska Republicans are pushing for the state to change its electoral vote process to a winner-take-all system, which could give former President Donald Trump an extra electoral vote in this year’s close presidential race.
Nebraska’s all-Republican congressional delegation sent a letter to Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) and Speaker of the Legislature John Arch (R) asking them to pass and sign a bill that would make this change.
How does Nebraska’s electoral system work?
Currently, Nebraska is one of the only states in the country that doesn’t award all of its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who received the most votes statewide, which is a winner-take-all system. Instead, they split up their votes by congressional district.
The state has five electoral votes, a small fraction of the Electoral College — made up of 270 votes.
Nebraska has three congressional districts, and if a presidential candidate wins a district, they get a single electoral vote. If they win all three districts, they get three electoral votes. The state’s two remaining electoral votes go to the person who received the most votes statewide. This system has led to Nebraska splitting its Electoral College votes in the past.
In 2020, President Joe Biden lost to Trump in Nebraska statewide and in the mostly Republican districts, but he defeated him in the state’s 2nd congressional district, which includes Omaha — the state’s largest city. So, Trump garnered four electoral votes and Biden netted one. [Mish Comment: Polls show Harris is ahead in Omaha. Biden carried the district by 7 points.]
“As Governor of Nebraska, I will never waver in my commitment to do what is right for our state,” Pillen said. “As I have consistently made clear, I strongly support statewide unity and joining 48 other states by awarding all five of our electoral college votes to the presidential candidate who wins the majority of Nebraskans’ votes.”
However, he said he would only do this if he knew that 33 senators would vote for it. Nebraska has a unicameral legislature — meaning they only have one chamber in their legislature instead of two. The legislature is made up of 49 senators, so Pillen is asking for over two-thirds of the members to clearly and publicly express support for this.
Around 30 to 31 votes have been confirmed, the legislators said.
Time Expires in Maine
Maine, which operates on the same system, have threatened to do the same.
However, time has expired for Maine to make the change.
If Nebraska acts, Trump wins on 269 but Harris would need 270.
Advantage Trump
Breaking an Electoral College Tie
In the House, each state delegation (not representative) would get one vote, with the presidency going to whoever wins a majority of state delegations.
Republicans currently control 26 of the 50 House delegations.
Regardless of who controls the House next year, Republicans are a strong favorite to remain in control of 26 House delegations.
This Has Happened Before
The Center for Politics discusses Breaking an Electoral College Tie
The presidential election of 1824 was the first one in which there is a tabulation of the actual popular vote for president, albeit not from every state. A majority of states in the Union at the time had adopted a popular vote for presidential electors; previously, presidential electors had generally been chosen by state legislatures. Thus, one can describe 2024 as representing the 200th anniversary of a popular vote for president, even if the totals represented only 18 of the 24 states voting at the time. (This history is from What Hath God Wrought: The Transformation of America, 1815-1848 by Daniel Walker Howe).
The 4-way presidential race failed to produce a majority winner in the Electoral College: Andrew Jackson finished first, with 41% of the popular vote and 38% of the electoral votes, short of the majority required for election. The election went to the House of Representatives, which brings us to the second bicentennial anniversary in 2024: 1824 was the most recent election in which the House decided the presidential winner. The 12th Amendment stipulates that in the event no one wins a majority of the Electoral College votes, the House chooses among the top 3 finishers in the Electoral College, with each state’s delegation getting a single vote. The House ended up backing the second-place finisher, John Quincy Adams. Jackson would get his revenge in a landslide victory 4 years later.
What Are the Odds?
Nate Silver and others have concocted bizarre scenarios to arrive at 269-269 math. The above map is not bizarre. It is currently one of the most likely scenarios.
Most likely scenario does not mean probable. There are thousands of scenarios, most of which are near-zero probability outcomes (for example Trump or Harris winning every state).
Nate Silver has Harris’ odds of winning Pennsylvania at 53.7%, Michigan at 61.8%, Wisconsin at 55.4%, and Trump winning Nevada at 47.4%.
If we assume every other state is as projected, the odds of 269-269 tie are 0.537 * 0.618 * 0.554 * 0.474 = 0.0871.
That would be an 8.7 percent chance. But It is not quite that simple because the other states are not guaranteed, reducing the odds.
Keep the above assumptions but factor in Arizona with Trump’s odds of winning at 64.5 percent and the tie odds drop to 5.7 percent. Also factor in Georgia the odds drop to 3.51 percent. And finally, factor in North Carolina and the odds drop further to about 2.3 percent.
But a correlation factor increases the odds depending on what assumptions we make. For example, if we assume Harris wins Wisconsin, her odds of winning Michigan and Pennsylvania rise because the states are similar in voting patterns.
Nate Silver has the deadlock odds at 0.3 percent.
Look for Silver’s odds of a tie to jump 8-fold or more. My crude calculation suggests the odds are between 2 and 3 percent but this can easily rise (or fall) over time.
”….Regardless of who controls the House next year, Republicans are a strong favorite to remain in control of 26 House delegations.”
Uh, not true… As Jim Rickards has observed, if the Dems take the house, they would – apparently are already planning – to pass a resolution declaring Trump an insurrectionist, therefore his electoral college votes cannot be counted.
Rickards hypothesizes that the GOP could then boycott the counting, or else Harris wins. The Senate would still elect Vance VP (he’s not disqualified.) Either you get Harris/Vance (!) Or by boycott as of March 20 the VP becomes President Vance.
Rickards is so full of shit I advise not listening to him.
In this case it is obviously so.
Rules are set in the Constitution. The House cannot override the Constitution and makes its own rules/
Rickards is a buffoon and a shill.
Lot at this crap. Search my blog for Rickards
https://mishtalk.com/?s=rickards
Don’t forget the DNC 10% cheat factor
I don’t think it will come down to 1 electoral college vote from Nebraska. However, I think it would be very bad for the republic if trump wins because of the last minute partisan change in Nebraska.
Legally changing to “winner take all” consistent with 48 other states vs. several manufactured civil and criminal cases, raiding personal residence, coordinating several states attempting removing from ballot, two assassination attempts, one rigged debate?
If you look at the lawfare the democrats have engaged in to keep RFK on the ballot and the green party off the ballot it’s hard to argue that a partisan Nebraska change would be any different.
The democrats have already gone down the road of doing anything to win. You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.
As we have seen for many years… it does not matter who wins. They never follow through on their promises
All 3 stat models show Harris starting to pull away from Trump. It’s between 55 -60% to Kamala. No, we’re not getting a tie. But mish knows Trump is losing and dreaming of a tie.
With electoral college system, Harris needs to win popular vote by between 3 and 4%. Might get 1% win.
Correct.
The house majority can delay members of the minority from being sworn in on Jan 3 (but not the reverse).
Another advantage for Harris is funding and money flow. Trump is clearly falling far behind. That should tell smart people something. This race is Harris to lose.
Hillary vastly outspent Trump in 2016 and lost. He won literally with a twitter account and rallies.
Money doesn’t guarantee election wins.
Yep. The people who usually cry in pain that too much money is spent on political races were oddly silent about the wonderful “money didn’t matter” 2016 presidential race’s outcome.
And apparently not saddened at all in 2020 when money and the media got solidly back in the driver’s seat.
Trump won in 2016 as an outsider and through a ton of cheap misinformation on Facebook. He has neither of that this time, and independents hate him.
2016 is not 2024 and the two years are not comparable. You should know this.
The larger point you missed is money does not equal electoral success, and this has been demonstrated in many many instances beyond Trump. It helps a bit, but if you are hanging your partisan hat on the idea you raised more money you are engaging in wishful fantasy not analysis.
And the point YOU ar emisisng is that money makes the world go round and the more of it you have, the more power you have.
In terms of politics, it is also an informal poll on the popularity of the party/candidate. The additional monies Harris is collecting correlates with her current 5% lead against Trump.
I strongly suspect sample and other bias in polling favoring Trump similar to 2020. I think the idea that it is Harris’ to lose is msm propagandizing.
I don’t believe the polls. I can make predictions also since the cost of entry is nothing more than typing bits on a monitor.
A couple of weeks back, I predicted that Harris could turn this election into a landslide in her favor. Normal people are tired of Trump’s “woe is me” shtick and that the country is in the dumpster, which is Trump’s constant MAGA messaging. People want a change. They want positivity and hope. That is what Harris/Walz brings to the table.
And here’s some confirmation:
Frankly I’m not sure what you’re smoking or what flavor Kool-aid packet you opened but the idea that Harris-Walz represent positivity and “hope” is only to be believed by the people that have anti-Trump tunnel vision.
“Hope” only works to sway the plebs if you are are trying to gain power – not if you’ve been in power for the last almost 4 years. Positivity? That’s an entirely subjective thing if you already lean blue then they will; be ‘positive’ to you. Harris reeks of a phoniness and vacuousness that goes beyond any other high level politician that I can think of. George W Bush was a dim bulb, but even he doesn’t hold a candle to the charisma and intellect black hole that is Kamala.
I don’t believe the current polling numbers showing a tie. Also current polling numbers mean nothing as the economy will get a lot worse before the election and possibly a war.
In the next few years the regional banks will merge. They will compete with the major banks. In the next few years demand for highly skilled workers will rise. An intermittent correction or recession will accelerate this process. After the correction the gov will fill its coffer and cut debt…no matter who wins the Nov election.
Anyway, we all know that the FIX is likely already in and this is the Military’s ENTERTAINMENT division trying to convince to make believer that we matter and then they hand a fancy term on it: “COLLEGE.”
I did go to college, mainly to learn how to think better and instead, I got laid and REALLY began to think with my penis.
IT has WORKED OUT! It has more brains than my swollen head!
The lack of holding an unscripted press conference is hurting Harris.
Ego is hurting Trump. The first candidate who addresses these issues will win.
Special K is a nincompoop and cannot improve. Mr. T. is just as likely to remain himself and cannot improve. A TIE?
Ultimately, I think that people are more used to Trump than ever and probably more are willing to hold their nose for him. Kamala’s ‘guess my secret’ strategy will not help with independents. Comparing strategies, on balance, Harris is hurt more by hers than Trump is by his.
I saw Jimmy Stewart do both in the same movie.
Come on Mish, the 1824 example involved 4 major candidates, in 2024 we only have 2! Your comparison doesn’t really hold up. The exceedingly unlikely chance of an electoral vote tie would be yet another reason to dump the antiquated Electoral College.
There us nothing wrong with the “antiquated” Electoral Collage. It was designed to ensure broad support around the country of a president. Without the EC all that matters is to campaign in NYC, San Francisco, LA, etc. EC is about tempering the excesses of “Demaaaaaaahcracy”, which many Americans bleat for like the sheep they are.
I am looking for a refund for your College Tuition here: MY TIME. I cannot get that back now. Thanks, Pal.
Bob – Either think or read, or preferably both.
If there is a tie – please tell is what will happen.
Next tell us the odds. I suggest 2-3 percent.
If you have different numbers, then list them.
Finally, the fact there are only 2 candidates means exactly what I said: Trump would win.
Now what the hell are you disputing?
Don’t you love the fact that they call it “COLLEGE” to give it an intellectual feel when WE know it is nincompoop-ville!
When was the last time a college (as a place of learning) was known as an intellectual center?
Ties are the strongest argument for the Electoral College.
Why?
Well, do you remember the horde of lawyers parachuting in to Florida and the extra time taken by all that fighting over a single district? Multiply that by 2500 counties. Or just 50 states. Talk about a coin flipping in the air for yeeeers! It’s bad enough that the loser invariably says, “We was robbed!” (Except Nixon 1960) But to stretch the robbery out to handle all the fuss and bother of an unprotected, national election, where each of 160 million votes can decide the thing? Jeez.
Simple math – 48 states with 2 outcomes; plus (roughly) 2 states with 3 outcomes provides over 2.5 Quadrillion possibilities.
2^48*3*3 = 2,533,274,790,395,904
Let’s admit, the “prediction circus” keeps the plebs entertained — the election is a farce. Prepare to welcome the “opportunity economy” … doublespeak translation says “catastrophe economy”.
These are the finer details that were not taught in high school 35 years ago, DESPITE a statewide graduation requirement to take a course called Participation in Government.
A non-issue.
This is what the powers-that-be need – a “close” competition.
Who would bother with the Super Bowl if one of the teams was a 10,000 to one favorite?
The system must try to drum up enthusiasm for voting.
As I currently understand, only a vote in one of 7 US states will make a difference.
Maybe three states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
Aka, Pennsylcarogia.
Sounds like a lung disease.
I started to cough trying to pronounce it.
Imagine the trouble Trump’s base might be fomenting if they knew for certain that he was not going to win! Better to push any troubles off until md-Nov
The Irish were famous for The Troubles.
On the off chance that the election tallies may be beyond the margin of fraud, Trump should expend some effort in Omaha.
Which candidate does the security complex (NSA, CIA, etc.) and the military-industrial-complex want to win? That’s who is going to win.
On the one hand, we have the one who the security complex has conspired against for the last nine years and who keeps getting targeted by “lone gunmen”. On the other hand, we have the one who garnered a major party nomination without having to bother winning a single primary vote. Hmmm