Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate According to NYT/Siena Poll

The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump. It’s the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.

A set of New York Times/Siena College Senate Polls shows Republicans are ahead in three crucial Senate races they need to win to take control of the Senate.

• Florida: Scott 49%: Mucarsel-Powell 40%
• Montana: Sheehy 52%: Tester 44%
• Texas: Cruz 48%: Allred 44%

In addition, Cook Political (paywalled)

Cook Political

Bear in mind, Cook Political uses “Tossup” liberally. That emphasizes MT leans Republican.

On Wisconsin

On October 8, Cook Political commented Wisconsin Senate Shifts From Lean Democrat To Toss Up

With less than a month until Election Day, many of the Senate battlegrounds have begun to tighten. Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.

Another poll from the respected Marquette Law School last week still showed Baldwin with a seven point edge, 53%-46%. However, private polling from both parties mirrors what our survey found — that this race is within the margin of error — and both Republicans and Democrats view other polls as outliers.

This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable. Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the country, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by one point. While Baldwin is still leading independents by eight points, 50%-42%, we have seen an 11-point swing among the bloc toward Hovde since August.

Hovde, a self-funding venture capitalist, was initially touted as ….

The rest is paywalled.

Blue Wall Cracks

On October 9, a Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Michigan Moves To Toss-Up, Dems Lead In PA & WI

Less than a month until Election Day, the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show a tight presidential race where neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump is winning as all three states are too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.

Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling seven issues…

The economy:

• PA: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
• WI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Immigration:

• PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
• WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:

• PA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
• MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.

Abortion:

• PA: 37 percent say Trump, while 55 percent say Harris;
• MI: 40 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
• WI: 39 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

The conflict in the Middle East:

• PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

As Commander in Chief of the U.S. military:

• PA: 48 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:

• PA: 46 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Trump generally comes out on top except for abortion.

Michigan Senate

The race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is tied, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and 48 percent of likely voters supporting former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.

This compares to September when Slotkin received 51 percent support and Rogers received 46 percent support.

In today’s poll, Democrats 98 – 1 percent support Slotkin, while Republicans 92 – 5 percent support Rogers. Independents are evenly split, with 48 percent supporting Slotkin and 48 percent supporting Rogers.

Electric Vehicles

That is another outstanding poll for Republicans. Don’t be surprised if this all hinges on EVs.

Likely voters 57 – 34 percent oppose government incentives to encourage people to buy more electric vehicles.

Republicans (91 – 5 percent) and independents (58 – 32 percent) oppose government incentives, while Democrats (69 – 18 percent) support them.

The Trump campaign ought to be flooding the airwaves and TV ads in Michigan with the message on EVs.

Pollster Ratings

Republicans tend to knock New York Times polls, but NYT polls are really conducted by Siena College. And according to Nate Silver Siena is one of the top rated pollsters with almost no historical bias.

Quinnipiac University is also an unbiased pollster. This news is very favorable for Republicans.

Final Thoughts

I am a believer in momentum, and momentum has shifted, more so in Senate polls than in the national election. Regardless, Nate Silver lags. I will cover this separately.

Trump remains his own worst enemy. If Trump practiced the debate against Harris, he would not have dug himself into a huge hole. But here we are.

I would not go so far to say for certain that Trump is out of the hole, but at least he is near the edge. No one knows how this will turn out nationally because there is still time for either candidate to make a major error.

However, we can say it is now likely Republicans take the Senate.