Betting ODDs By State
Betting odds are from Predictit. The Lead map is from 270ToWin.
Current Senate Makeup
Two independents (Green) caucus with the Democrats. Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus S. King, Jr. in Maine.
Expected Changes
I expect Democrats to pick up seats in Maine, North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona but lose one in Alabama for a net pickup of +3.
North Carolina and Arizona Polls
Those leads have been steady and persistent for months. There is no reason to expect or believe anything different will happen.
Colorado Polls
Public Policy is a biased poll sponsored by someone or some political party. That makes it suspect. However, Hickenlooper has been +9 for months in nearly every poll so there is no reason to expect or believe anything different will happen.
Alabama
The Alabama Senate race follows a special election. Jeff Sessions stepped down as Senator to become Trump’s Attorney General.
In a special election, Doug Jones, a Democrat, barely beat Ray Moore, a Republican who Dated Teenaagers for Their Purity.
Trump backed Moore, of course. But the Republican National Committee could not stand the stench and cut off funding.
Yet, despite the sex charges and lack of funding Jones barely beat Moore by a margin of 49.9 to 48.4.
Jones became the first Democrat to win any statewide office in decades.
Don’t expect that again, to say the least.
Montana
Montana is a potential wildcard. The polls are stale (Late July) but Republican Daines has led Democrat Bullock by about 6 points the last three polls.
In early July, Bullock was ahead in several polls.
Montana rates to go red, but this is a potential Democrat flip to watch.
Maine Polls
This is where doubt sets in. Not only are those polls stale, they come from marginal pollsters.
Also note Lisa Savage of the Green party who is running as an independent.
The result is no candidate is polling over 50%. Savage undoubtedly takes votes away from Gideon for the benefit of Collins.
We need fresh polls, but Collins is the underdog.
Add It all Up
Add it all up and things look like a tie.
But the Vice President gets to vote in the Senate to break ties.
A single swing vote or lack thereof would decide things in the Senate.
Mish
This is wrong: “Savage undoubtedly takes votes away from Gideon for the benefit of Collins.” Maine is using ranked choice voting in this race. If a voter ranks Savage #1 and Gideon #2, if Savage does not come out on top, the vote goes to Gideon. Collins is in no way benefitted. Please inform yourself about RCV and correct this statement.
Happy to come this website
I think 50 is a best case scenario for the Republicans. As we move into late October and early November, projections show deaths from Covid climbing from the current pace to 2000 a day. If that happens, I expect a late shift to the Democrats, and they may end up with 52 seats or more. On the flip side, if Covid deaths are falling instead, Republicans might hold 50 or even 51 seats, but given the anti-maskers out there, I think that is unlikely.
Abc
I’ll be nice – in AZ Mark GIFFORDS(kelly) is CRIMINAL
lied about FOREIGN INVESTORS for his company that took CHINESE $$$
then he got PREFERRED LOCATION(next to defense contractors) because he lied about foreign investors
Military doesn’t allow non-U.S. companies to locate near defense contractors
HE NEEDS TO BE ARRESTED AND TRIED FOR CRIMINAL HE IS
People are tired of the riots, they are tired of the boarded up buildings, they are tired of the entire Antifa/BLM communist agenda. They are tired of their cities looking more like Beirut than the US. The people want this to all stop, and they know the only way it will stop is if the Republicans win the election and crack down on the criminal rioters.
The Democrats policy’s have failed miserably as every Democratic city and State now show. The voters see that, and do not support the communist / socialist agenda the Democrats are trying to impose on America.
If you put any credence in polls, you deserve to be shocked at the election outcome.
Elections are always decided by the independents, and the independents have little to side with the Democrats on. The Democrats have no plan for America except to pander to Antifa/BLM and attack Trump.
Democrats are losing their choke hold on minority voters as increasing numbers of Blacks, and Latino’s disagree with the Democrats socialist agenda, and their support of the riots and mayhem in their cities. The Democrats failure to support the past 4 relief bills that would have put $300 a week in the pockets of the unemployed and people struggling has not gained them popularity either. I am sure that will make for some brutal TV ads. It appears to me like the Democrats are either trying to lose the election, or they are so grossly incompetent they cannot understand how their actions are seen by the voters.
Hey there! You gotta rethink the Maine race. It’s ranked-choice voting. Lisa Savage doesn’t take votes from Gideon, she amplifies them, because, as a progressive, her #2 votes are much more likely to go to Gideon than Collins if she loses in round 1 (or round 2; Max Linn, another independent is polling near zero).
No WAY she helps Collins in this race. If anything, she brings in the Maine progressives (we have the longest-standing Green Party in the country) who would have otherwise stayed home because Collins and Gideon aren’t that different policy-wise.
Well said! This race needs more attention because it’s a HUGE and first-of-its-kind opportunity for progressives to vote for what they really want without being beholden to vote for the “lesser of two evils” in a two-party system. Lisa Savage could very well be our first Green senator!
Romney will be interesting in such a scenario . I could see him emerge as a power broker and voting both with Democrats and Republicans depending on issue. And with a Democratic President others could follow him
I would have expected McConnell to tell Senate Republicans to do whatever is necessary to win and that they no longer have to support the President, Donald Trump
Nope. They’re the trump party now, until the bitter end.
My thoughts exactly. The GOP is dead. It’s the Trump party now.
McConnell only cares about his party nominating more supreme court justices the next 4 years.
At least he’s good for something. Even a broken clock….
Republicans, on average, do seem more likely to be on the abused, vs the abusing, end of the ambulance chaser shakedowns and other kangaroo court abuses America is known for these days. Hence ought to be marginally less likely to at least fan the flames of those particular overreaches.
Plus, republicans have proven at least a tiny bit more adept at counting all the way to two when faced staring at those complimecatedly numbered constitutional amendments.
Beyond that lofty achievement in preschool math, they are obviously all, from both nominal parties, in way over their meager little heads. Adding up to a slight benefit from keeping the GOP in charge of the particular task of nominating top kangaroos. But man, if that doesn’t make obvious the sorry state of the alternative, I don’t know what does…..
The Gop chained a like steel cord to the bitter end
Dems still ahead in state-based Senate polls. I would not discount a few surprises that lead to a Democratic sweep in the Senate. Turnout is going to be higher than 2016 or 2018.
Also the polling map shifted the Presidential election further in Biden’s favor. 289-119 with 130 EV in tossup category. Trump’s mini-bounce after the protests and RNC has faded and then some.
289 is enough to win. Even if Trump took all the other states.
You know he is a very frightened man right now, he KNOWS he is going down in flames and the only way he stays out of prison is by keeping that so called sitting presidential immunity. The moment he is not a sitting president the indictments start rolling in. Even if he never sees the inside of a prison cell he will spend the rest of his miserable life paying lawyers and showing up in court to defend himself.
There is one neat little trick that he has planned for though and you will see it rolled out in a little thing I like to call an October Surprise, though it actually could begin any day now.
It is war with China. Not just a trade war, that was a multi year long set up for the real thing in case he needed it and he knew he likely would.
In case you have not noticed he went to India way back at the start of the year, then India started having border clashes with China. And they are serious disputes, in one firefight India lost 35 elite soldiers and China did not publish their casualties, they even buried them in mass graves out of sight of the press, but India says it was in the hundreds.
Latest news on that front is India has advanced into the disputed valley and taken a Chinese military camp.
We sent a third aircraft carrier to the region with two in the South China Sea, and as of yesterday China threatened to use it’s hypersonic carrier killer missiles on them, this morning the Chinese announced new rules that pretty much put our diplomats in their country into a lockdown.
We have sent 80 F 35 stealth fighters to the region, South Korea, Japan, and Philippines. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40eCWtcTnUA&ab_channel=USAMilitary
Sorry about the link quality, but the good one has been taken down since I watched it yesterday.
This is growing like an onion puts on layers, just within the last hour Japan signed a pact of mutual assistance against China with India.
This is the headline of the UK’s Express today: WW3: India and Japan sign military alliance against China as world braces for war
The world is talking about this but not even a whisper in the USA.
Look over there some Antifa dude threw a molitov cocktail at some militia dudes with AKs.
India has already signed similar agreements with the United States, Australia, France, South Korea and Singapore.
Vietnam will also be involved since China has claimed their Paracel Islands and built military bases on them. Many see this as a last step by the Chinese communists before attempting to invade Taiwan.
Here is a major story from the Military Times https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/09/01/what-war-with-china-could-look-like/ from just last week.
Do not think for a moment that this is not a plan set in motion by Putin either, his border with China is the longest of any Chinese neighbor, and he was I think planning to get the US to do his dirty work for Trump’s second term, but had it ready to go now in case it looks like there will be no second term even though he plans to change vote totals. With India fighting China in the south and the rest of ASEAN nations fighting China on the Pacific that leaves the north wide open for Tsar Vladimir.
Australia’s Morrison says US-China war no longer inconceivable.
China and the United States are on a collision course, and Australia is preparing for the fallout
By Stan Grant
Posted SatSaturday 4 JulJuly 2020 at 3:00pm, updated SatSaturday 4 JulJuly 2020 at 8:59pm
A 50/50 senate would mean a power sharing plan where the dems would set the agenda one year and the GOP the next, but, no matter who sets the agenda Harris will still be tie breaker so it will be a LOT friendlier legislative branch in 2021 than under Moscow Mitch.
I would take the bet in Montana, Alaska, and one of the Georgia seats. Montana can be very party independent when it comes to their representation in congress. Daines is not as popular as Bullock who in spite of being a dem is quite popular there.
Alaska is a dead heat, that one will be decided by well under 1% of the vote. Basically by a few hundred people, and I do not think Trump’s announcement of further oil drilling restrictions off the Florida coast is going to sit well with them up there, if he can do that in Florida he can do it in Alaska also.
The Georgia races for senate are a total mess and most likely will go to run off. Perdue is ahead in polling and Ossoff likely will lose, but the possibility of a monumental black turn out means you should not bet any pink slips on it. Perdue is a first term senator who has attached his fate to Trump the same way Graham did. If Georgia flips blue it will be an anti Trump move and that will take Perdue out.
Loeffler, the appointed republican incumbent, is embroiled in a scandal in which she and her wealthy husband were caught selling stocks (at least $18 million) (Loeffler, who sits on the Senate Health Committee, first began selling stocks on January 24) immediately after a secret briefing briefing for senators well before the public was informed. She is also adamantly (her word not mine) opposed to the black lives matter movement. In a state where half the voters are either black or allies of blacks.
Anyway, this is a mandated race that allows anyone to run and so far Loeffler has a republican that is far to the right of her, loved by Faux News, an ardendt defender of Trump.
And, a few dems also in the running, one is Matt Lieberman, son of Joe, and the other is a black man named Warnock who is very well endorsed and quite popular. The rules say that the winner has to get 50% of the vote and that is not likely to happen for any so there will be a runoff Jan. 5, 2021 between the two top vote getters, I am not sure who the GOP side will be represented by, but the dem is probably going to be Warnock. And that is who I would put my money on. Of course by January the anger and excitement of this election season will have ebbed so the African American turn out may also. But, I think the pro Trump congressman running against Loeffler might well be the GOP to survive and go on to run off. If that is the case he will likely lose after Trump’s own devastating loss. Since his only appeal to voters is he has his head so far up Trump’s arse he has gone night blind it will be hard for him to win after Biden has already won in a landslide.
But wait WAIT there is more, Joni Earnst is in the battle of her life in Iowa also. And in a landslide type situation the very close races will likely sweep down ballot dems into office with Biden. If there is a 20-30 or more million vote lead for Biden as I expect I think Iowa tips blue and Earnst is out. So Mish, I do agree with your scenario to a tee and that is what I had on my own interactive map, but, it is WAY too close to call and democrats could easily end up with a majority outright in the senate.
Forget about co-sharing of power. These people have made the dems so mad we no longer are the party of equity and fairness. We will exploit every single legal technicality and we arent looking back. Smash them all.
The way the senate does it is every two years one third of the senate seats is up for grabs, so a tied senate this election will only stay tied till the next midterm election at which point the tie will either get broken or a new tie will be effective another two years. The reason we have so many opportunities to pick up seats is there are far more GOP up for reelection this time than democrats. Next time the shoe will be on the other foot and more dems will have to defend their seats.
Because it is a 50/50 tie what they do is the dems will get control of the senate for one year and the GOP the next. However control will do them little good with Harris casting the tie breaker vote on all legislation that is voted along partisan lines.
I understand your feelings of course and feel the same way, but, we can’t give in to revenge, at least not overtly because that will end up costing us in the next election. Anyway I am of the opinion that it will not be a tied senate, we have a net three seat pickup pretty much for sure, and I count 3 or 4 more races that are so close any one or all of those could flip as well. This is how much disaster Trump has brought onto the GOP, even SOUTH CAROLINA may elect a young black man over the rotting political corpse of Linsey Graham. Texas may actually go blue.
this is the video it speaks for its self https://twitter.com/OmarJimenez/status/1304065750324391936