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Shockingly Possible Trump Costs Republicans the House, Democrats Need 16 of Last 22 Seats

I am not at all surprised by the Senate. I am shocked by a House still undecided at this stage.
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NY Times Election Map

Live Election Updates

Let's tune into the 538 Live Update for the most important points. 

538 Senate Update

  • In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 52 percent to 46 percent (a margin of 115,073 votes). As we wrote earlier, this race looks very good for Democrats.
  • In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent (a margin of 8,988 votes). Cortez Masto should take the lead here as more mail ballots are counted. If Democrats win both Arizona and Nevada, they will retain control of the Senate regardless of what happens in Georgia’s Dec. 6 runoff.

I commented yesterday that it appeared all over for Laxalt. 

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political analysis made the Arizona call yesterday. 

Wasserman on the House

Wasserman and Nate Cohn on Abortion

Wasserman on Nevada Senate

It's important to note Wasserman's disclaimer "As has always been the case, the personal judgments offered by this account regarding election results are not official race 'calls' and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cook Political Report, NBC News or any other entity."

With that, let's return to the 538 House discussion.

538 House Update Comments - Emphasis Mine

  • ABC News estimates that Republicans will win at least 211 seats and Democrats will win at least 204. There are 22 districts that could still go either way.
  • Democrats must win 16 of the 22 unprojected Democrat-versus-Republican races to keep their House majority. They currently lead in just 12.
  • The most surprising results for me are in Colorado’s 3rd District and Washington’s 3rd District. In the former, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert may hold on, but she’s up by only 0.3 percentage points over Democrat Adam Frisch. And in the latter, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads Republican Joe Kent by 2.3 points, with 83 percent of the expected vote reporting. Now, both of the GOP candidates in these districts are flawed — both are big Trump backers, Boebert has made a litany of controversial statements and Kent defeated Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the primary after she’d voted to impeach Trump. But Colorado’s 3rd District is an R+14 seat, so the idea that it could be decided by less than 1 point is wild. And Washington’s 3rd District is an R+9 seat, so the fact Gluesenkamp Perez might actually be in a position to pull this out is striking.
  • Boebert had a 97-in-100 chance of winning, and Kent had a 98-in-100 chance. But these are both races where we got precious little polling, so our forecast was mostly based on the “fundamentals” — which relies heavily on those partisan lean stats you mentioned. But candidate quality seems to have made a big difference here — as it did in many Senate and gubernatorial races — since Boebert and Kent are particularly extreme.
  • The fact that we saw a similar upset in Ohio’s 1st District makes me think there is something statewide happening, too, Amelia. Though Tim Ryan — who left the 13th District open when he decided to run for Senate — lost his race to J.D. Vance, having a big name in a major race at the top of the ticket may have had some trickle-down effect for Democrats in these races. 

ABC Races Still Uncalled (Yellow Highlights Mine)

Several House Seats Up in the Air

The margins in my 7 highlighted races seem to be enough to hold, but it's very uncertain. Republicans are ahead in 3 other races that easily may not hold up.

If Republicans win all seven of my highlights and lose the rest, the grand total would look be 218 to 217. 


Note how badly Sarah Palin is getting blown away in Alaska by over 20 points. Take a look at her message. 

Sarah Palin Says Stop Donating to the GOP

The Independent reports Sarah Palin tells supporters to stop donating to the GOP: ‘They opposed me every step of the way’

Sarah Palin has gone nuclear on the Republican Party, claiming the GOP sabotaged her Alaska House race and that they deserved their drubbing in the midterms.

Trump Goes Nuclear on DeSantis

Politico reports Trump Goes to War Against DeSantis

Scroll to Continue


Former President Donald Trump publicly attacked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, releasing a rambling statement Thursday blasting the governor he helped make but who is now his chief rival to lead the Republican Party.

Just days before he’ll likely announce he’s running for president, Trump took credit for DeSantis’ success after endorsing him in 2018, belittled him as “average” and accused “Ron DeSanctimonious” of playing games by not announcing his 2024 presidential ambitions.

Were it not for DeSantis and the 3 seats he gerrymandered for Republicans in Florida I would be typing right now that the Democrats won the House. 

Take those 3 DeSantis-delivered seats away and it would be 208-207 with Democrats leading in 12 of them. 

House Hero Mike Lawler

A shocking House hero is Mike Lawler, the New York Republican who unseated the Democratic campaign chair.

I would like to see the party move forward. I think any time you are focused on the future, you can't so much go to the past,” Lawler says.

Had Lawler been a "stop the steal" loyalist that flip never would have happened. His victory over a Democratic campaign chair in this election environment is more than a bit amazing. 

Abandon Ship 

Republicans desperately need to abandon Trump. His vindictive politics cost Republicans the Senate. 

And as shocking as it may seem, Trump may have cost Republicans the House as well.

Biggest Loser of the Night Donald Trump, Biggest Winner Ron DeSantis

On election eve I commented Biggest Loser of the Night Donald Trump, Biggest Winner Ron DeSantis

House projections are far worse now for Republicans than anyone might have expected.

One thing has changed since the election. No one has accused me of TDS this time for blasting Trump.

Big Announcement 

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s ‘Very Big Announcement’ Still on Track—For Now

Mr. Trump on Wednesday was fundraising off what he has promised would be a “very big announcement,” hyping it as “perhaps … the most important speech given in the history of the United States of America.”

Listen to this clown [pick your own better word or phrase], regarding the "most important speech given in the history of the United States of America.”

The sad thing is he likely believes it. Anyone else who does is more than a bit deranged. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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