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Spotlight on Pennsylvania - Which Party Will Win?

Pennsylvania may determine which party holds the Senate after the next election. What's going on?
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538 Pennsylvania Forecast as of Nov. 5, 2022, at 11:38 AM

538 Pennsylvania Forecast as of Nov. 5, 2022, at 11:38 AM

Momentum shifted towards Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, a former TV doctor, away from John Fetterman, the Democratic Lt. Governor starting in late September.

Medical Records In Play

On Tuesday, October 25, the two candidates squared off in a debate and Fetterman put in a dismal performance. 

Fetterman suffered a stroke in May and refuses to disclose his medical records. None were needed. Everyone could hear the results. 

Fetterman dropped vowels from sentences and gave a preposterous answer when asked about fracking. The record shows he has always been against fracking but the exchange was bizarre.

Bizarre Fracking Exchange

“I’ve always supported fracking,” Mr. Fetterman said when pressed by a moderator. He later added that, “I do support fracking and I don’t, I don’t—I support fracking, and I stand, and I do support fracking.”

What?!

Following the debate support for Oz jumped again. 

How 538 Saw It on October 26, 2022

538 odds after the debate 

538 odds after the debate 

That is how 538 saw things after the debate but before the polls reflected the damage to Fetterman.

My comment was "60%? Really!?"

I asked Did Republican Odds of Winning the Senate Jump By One Seat or Three?

I am looking at three Senate races, one of which does not appear on any political radar screens.

The race on on one's political radar was for the Senate seat in New Hampshire.

Which Polls Are Influencing Pennsylvania - November 5

538 Pennsylvania Polls as of Nov. 5, 2022, at 11:38 AM

538 Pennsylvania Polls as of Nov. 5, 2022, at 11:38 AM

Of the 8 polls influencing the Pennsylvania Senate race 6 favor Republicans. The average score is Oz +0.375. 

Data suggests Marist is among the worst pollsters.

Marist Polls vs Reality 

Marist polls results from 538

Marist polls results from 538

I have no idea what Marist is doing, but whatever, it's astonishingly bad far more often than not. 

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Few of the pollsters were very good, not even the touted Trafalgar. It's problem is a tendency towards overstating Republican chances.

A couple of pollsters, Susquehanna Polling and Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage were also pretty good with misses in both directions.

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc vs Reality

Susquehanna polls results from 538

Susquehanna polls results from 538

Emerson College 

Emerson College polls results from 538

Emerson College polls results from 538

Emerson College is one of the most consistently biased pollsters, more so than Trafalgar, but in the opposite direction.

Beacon Research is another joke. 

Beacon Research Polls vs Reality 

Beacon Research polls results from 538

Beacon Research polls results from 538

That's another abysmal performance consistently overrating Democrats by a huge margin.

Assessing the Odds

The problem with this analysis is that we do not know if the pollsters overcorrected for past mistakes.

But judging from Nate Silver's projections, his model seems to ignore blatant past errors or assumes those errors have been corrected.

Unless pollsters overcorrected, the odds, factoring in momentum, are certainly not in favor of Fetterman.

This may very well come down to undecided voters , now about 6 percent of the total. 

History suggests undecideds will break in the direction of the current trend towards Oz. 

Reassessing the New Hampshire Senate Race Odds, Who's Really Ahead?

Also see Reassessing the New Hampshire Senate Race Odds, Who's Really Ahead?

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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