The European Parliament elections have been underway for four days, ending today. Here are some live updates from Bloomberg.
Live Updates, Emphasis by Bloomberg
Much of the focus of the campaign has been on the far right, and parties who just fall short of that definition.
It’s fair to say that leaders including as Marine Le Pen are expected to pick up seats today, and that could galvanize opposition to some of the EU’s biggest policy initiatives, including the so-called Green Deal. It would lead to pressure for a harder line on migration.
The race for top EU jobs will start the moment counting ends.
Current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a German, remains the front-runner for a second term. That, however, depends on whether her center-right European People’s Party can build a stable majority in the new parliament.
Von der Leyen has suggested a possible shift to the right by signaling she’s open to working with parts of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned von der Leyen that such a move would jeopardize his support.
That is the precise scenario I laid out on Friday in my take The French President Will Get Crushed in the European Parliament Elections
Expect a surge in groups classified as “far right” in the European Parliament elections June 6-9. In France, Macron’s party will get pummeled as will the Greens everywhere.
In a highly tactical move, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni is the only EU leader who has chosen to lead an electoral list as she aims to convert her domestic support into a strong outcome for her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party.
The result could not only consolidate Meloni’s domestic power, but also cast her as the kingmaker in Brussels. She’s being courted by outgoing European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on the centre-right, who’s coveting Meloni’s support to secure a second term, as well as France’s Marine Le Pen on the far-right, who wants her backing to merge far-right powers to create a supergroup in the European Parliament.
What Is the Far Right?
It is hard to say. In Poland it means support for Ukraine, except as applies to agricultural imports. Poland, Left and Right is hopping mad at grain imports from Ukraine hammering crop prices.
In France, Marine Le Pen has surged after dropping her plan to abandon the Euro. Nonetheless mainstream media still labels her Far Right because of her anti-immigration policies and because she does not support Ukraine.
In Italy, prime minister Giorgia Meloni is considered by many to be far right simply because of her anti-immigration stance.
I find it interesting that EuroNews labels Ursula von der Leyen “center right” despite the fact she currently wears a Green climate flag every day, figuratively speaking.
Can a coalition of the right plus the far right knock off Ursula von der Leyen?
From where I sit, I hope to say “Good Riddance”, but I doubt that happens. The far right won’t be a majority, but they will gain enough power to influence decisions.
Ursula will do whatever it takes to buy votes to stay in power. It’s the same in the US.
If she hangs onto power, expect Green policies to be watered down with a focus shift on China instead.
Update Synopsis
Bloomberg’s report today is essentially the same as my analysis on Friday. Ursula is courting Giorgia Meloni and so is Marine Le Pen.
Meloni will go with the most stable partner she can find. That likely will not be a conglomeration of the Right and Far Right.
Bloomberg commented “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned von der Leyen that such a move would jeopardize his support.”
So what? His coalition in Germany would get blasted out of the water if a German election was held today. He is in no position to threaten anything.
Look for Meloni and Ursula to cut a deal leaving Scholz out of the loop unless very radical groups gain enough votes to dispense with Ursula outright. If that happens, things will get very messy.
That’s possible but unlikely, and it would be a real hoot if it happened.
Le Pen’s day will come, not in the European Parliament elections, but in the next French presidential elections.
Meanwhile, Back in the States
Does the “anything to stay in power play” sound vaguely familiar?
Biden is flouting the Supreme Court again on student aid, making promises that are not his to make on housing down payments, was involved in a kangaroo court to convict Trump, and is shielding Hunter Biden as much as he can.
Despite Trump being convicted and Biden calling him a felon, Trump is still ahead in the polls.
Regarding student debt, please see Student Debt Cancellation Is Extremely Unfair. Here Are 10 Reasons Why.
Regarding the sham trial, please see Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America
Trump was found guilty of a crime, but can anyone say what it is? Prosecutorial misconduct is dripping. It’s the judge, not Trump who belongs in prison.
I expect the conviction to be overturned.
France rigs the vote like the US. Macron is a shoe in. Question… what is Macron married to? Creepy factor 10
Hoot of the Day “France rigs the vote like the US. Macron is a shoe in.”
Please not that he cannot even run again for president
“Despite Trump being convicted and Biden calling him a felon, Trump is still ahead in the polls.”
Bannon is going to prison for ignoring a congressional subpoena, while AG Garland proclaims he can ignore any congressional subpoena he considers illegitimate. Garland puts himself above the law, which Pelosi said no one is above. Biden flouting the Supreme Court as well as the legislative power of congress on student loans, should have had Pelosi calling for Biden’s impeachment. Crickets. Biden calling Trump a felon is rather laughable in light of the Democrats corrupt double standard on the law. Thus Trump maintains his standing in the polls.
Marine Le Pen doesn’t have more than 50% of the vote. She might have the largest vote in the first election due to the fractured left. In the second round, the left will unite against her and vote for whomever of the left had the highest votes.
So the winner will likely be the leftist party that gathers the most votes during the first round of voting.
Thank you for this topic. Isn’t it obvious that Biden might be the biggest ‘fall guy’ in history? Patch up the economy and Ukraine and whatever until after November -when it can all collapse. God Help Us All
Can you elaborate on how “Biden was involved in a kangaroo court to convict Trump, and is shielding Hunter Biden as much as he can.”
Sure: House Ways and Means Report on Hunter Biden
https://waysandmeans.house.gov/2023/12/21/joe-biden-was-protected-evidence-shows-irs-was-blocked-from-pursuing-any-lead-to-joe-biden/
Kangaroo Court
““There was not a random selection of a judge in this case, and there should have been,”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/selection-of-judge-in-trump-case-could-complicate-proceedings-aa4c169c?st=7tu0t2gbv4v357y&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Trump’s Trial Violated Due Process
He was denied notice of the charges, meaningful opportunity to respond, and proof of all elements.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-trial-violated-due-process-76fae047?st=bezyhqqknd4d2zt&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Now in France we will have elections for a new parliament taking place during the Olympics in France and the summer vacation period.
The composition of the European parliament will not change remarkably.
Europeans democratically election their dictators.
Macron just announced that he is calling for snap parliamentary elections this month. That I didn’t see.
… and the ones out of power will do anything to get it.
Same as it ever was.
Let’s see the results first. Nevertheless a move to the Right is a given. How much a move is not known yet but will be soon. A clampdown on immigration is in the works and a change in support for Ukraine is not.
Regarding Trump’s supposed crime, how does one bookkeeping misclassification error become 34 felonies?
Inflation of course.
Woke bookkeeping.
Because it was actually two per property. Multiply by total number of properties and you get to 34. Trump deserves what he gets for having so many pass through entities. He could have avoided all this by just paying his taxes. Now it is going to cost him everything. I have no issue with anyone trying to cheat on their taxes.It is just that the government has been letting many get away with it. I think real estate tax fraud is common practice amongst the wealthy. They all should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Their fraud is the reason why property values keep going up and why more people cannot afford real estate. They keep borrowing against the stated value and buying more properties. Kevin O’Leary was upset when Trump was prosecuted for this and said everyone does this as part of their strategy to avoid taxes and borrow money. The answer isn’t if everyone does it is is okay. The truth is only the wealthy get away with this while the working class never could. The banks should also be prosecuted for loan fraud against the other people who hold money in the bank. Instead of blinding supporting Trump and his ilk, everyone should a little more closely at the fraud that is perpetrated by the wealthy and the banks. They should all get thrown in jail and get bankrupted.
Reference: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/jon-stewart-shark-tank-judge-kevin-oleary-trump-fraud-case-1235860403/
It ain’t easy bein’ greasy.
But it’s easy grifting in and chirping from mommies basement right chester?
02312. If Trump wern’t running for president and or have run in and won in 2016 and remained a private citizen then none of these cases would have ever been pursued period any idiot knows this, like Trump or hate him this is the truth . The bank decides if they are going to make a loan or reject it they made the loan and got paid back for it ,this is political prosecution period . If you think this case would have been bought against Trump if he was not running then you are pretty clueless .
To Casual Observer. Donald Trump wasn’t charged for any of what you described. The charges and convictions against him were for something entirely different.
The first element of the charge is easy to understand = falsifying documents, a misdemeanor. DA Alvin Bragg had to get inventive and grow wings to stretch those charges into felonies and avoid the statute of limitations.
Our determination of right and wrong depends on what the majority agree on. Why is it tobacco is legal but marijuana was not, till recently? Both are harmful to pretty much the same extent.
“Their fraud is the reason why property values keep going up and why more people cannot afford real estate.”
That is a figment of imagination. The FED dropped the rate to zero. People could borrow more money and drive prices up. House flipping became a thing regardless of income. People could buy a home, sit on it for six months or so and sell for a profit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_New_York#:~:text=Trump%20was%20charged%20with%2034,included%2C%20the%20payments%20totaled%20%24420%2C000.
I know you won’t read any of that, but it’ll make you mad to see it, and you’ll give me a little frowny thumb.
No frowny thumbs, but if you look at Stossel’s expose of WikiPedia … you will know it’s a progressive hack. They censor and modify content at will and without warning. There may be something good out there, but you have to know everything is thru a serious progressive lens. If it is truly aPolitical … it will probably go thru, if there is even a hint of politics it will make the left look good and the right look bad. If you disagree. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiRgJYMw6YA
8 minutes … and you will be givimg me a thunbs down
Refute the statements. Cite credible sources.
or STFU.
OK, so a superstar in WikiPedia and John Stossel are not credible but WikiPedia, Vox, MotherJones, and others are. Kudos for you … for hanging with intelligent folks when you seem quite unqualified to do so
Refute that your dipshit double is Chester. Cite credible sources or STFU
There were 11 installment payments, and a couple of records for each payment. Alvin Bragg filed a charge for each of those records.
While Europe is voting Turkey, Europe’s industrial hub and NATO’s second largest army, fused with China and the BRICS.
Turkey Europe’s industrial hub? Where did you get that? Their industrial production is a small fraction of Europe’s by all measures. Sure it has the second largest army in manpower but far from that in assets. Turkey is looking more to fuse with its Middle Eastern neighbors rather than with China or the Brics.
Turkey produces more steel than any other EU country.
Erdogan made references to Turkey’s commonalities w. BRICS just this week.
Try some news sources that aren’t US cable TeeVee.
Germany produces just about the same steel as Turkey and that’s only one EU country and frankly, there is much more to industrial production than steel and Turkey is very much behind. Erdogan can say what he likes but watch what he does and he is doing nothing substantial with the Brics except words.
You don’t even bother to do any basic research before writing. If had you would know Turkey’s true level of industrialization.
???
you got called out… your reply was BS… and you can’t take it.
project some more… keep typing.
so… Turkey IS the largest steel producer in europe – thanks for confirming that.
Erdogan has an iron grip on power in Turkey, so his words DO matter.
0-2
pitchers count.
What is the far right?
(Makes no difference of US or EU. By the way, the EU was lost and fell 20 years ago and that clock can’t be rewound)
The far right of 2024 is simply the radical progressive left of the 1960s. The Kennedy’s would be far right today
The far right of 2024 is simply the center of the 1990s. Clinton would be right/far right today
The Overton Window is real and always shifting further and further left/progressive/democrat
What is the far right policy of 2035? It is simply the democrat/leftist policy of today.
People are weak and selfish and have no central grounding point or compass to tie them to and lead them. So the wind blows them in the direction it chooses which is always further and further from that central grounding point.
Men? Men are weak.
Elrond
I definitely agree that what Kennedy said (and what his nephew is saying now) would make him untouchable by the democratic party. There are liberals, however, who have not bought the Progressive line. Folks like Dave Rubin, Bill Maher, and others who still believe in free speech and open debate. They sadly have been sidelined as progressives have taken the party by storm and you either tow the line or receive the left foot of fellowship. I still do enjoy it though when the left attacks itself (ie: when the anti-Israel protesters stopped the Pride Parade). I am optimistic (maybe cluelessly optimistic) that at some point, more folks are going to see the progressives as too insane. It would be great if they were to form a coalition with libertarians or some viable 3rd party. Problem is that people have all been trained. Either major party could run Bozo the clown (arguably they are) and be guaranteed 48% of the vote. Libertarians tend to be purist (to a fault) and thus they have trouble keeping their 3 to 5% loyal. Individual thinkers, in some ways, are a detriment to parties. Sheep help keep a party strong.
“The far right of 2024 is simply the radical progressive left of the 1960s. The Kennedy’s would be far right today
The far right of 2024 is simply the center of the 1990s. Clinton would be right/far right today”
You nailed it. In most cultural issues, today’s so-called far right of America and Western Europe 1970-80s would be considered left of center, if not left-wing. And today’s mainstream would be counted as far far left back then. Consider gender ideology which did not even exist even on fringes up to late 1980s, and now it’s mainstream!
Europe assigns the epithet Far Right to all parties opposed to the Marxist, socialist, communist, fascist regimes in power. The Far Right of Europe stands at the center of American political values. The center of European politics now in power espouses fascism, communism, open borders, censorship, woke policy, the atmospheric carbon climate hoax, and the dictate of unelected Brussels bureaucrats.
“The Far Right of Europe stands at the center of American political values”
While current American political (lack of..) values, is nearly indistinguishable from Mussolini/Franco style totalitarian leftist corporatism. One Nation under Big, Strong, Tough Dear Leader. And his illiterate clique of wholly dependent fellow-traveling rabble.
I suppose that makes Meloni the only one with some historical basis for her silly, jingoistic nationalism.
And all the while, pretty much the only ones left paying even lip service to traditional American political values from back in the civilized era, is the Taliban/Afghan Mujaheddin. Hence why they are now the ones winning, whenever challenged by lesser totalitarians of all stripes.
in the grand scheme of euro-politics, european parliamentary elections are meaningless… a windsock at best.
the european parliament is pure theater – members have no power or representation in governance – thus the associated EP elections are merely procedural. this is a function of the EU’s anti-democratic federalism, which is terminally flawed in many ways beyond the obvious anti-democratic parliamentarian theater & “elections”.
it is the national (incl. presidential) elections w/in each EU country that truly matter, exactly as Mish notes above.
There is much more interest in this European election than I have ever seen. Before few cared. Now it seems central. Something new is happening.
“Before few cared. Now it seems central. Something new is happening.”
The more arbitrary and totalitarian government gets, the more practically important it becomes to pay attention to every idiotic facet of Dear Leader’s Court’s intrigues.
real change is happening, thus the interest in EP elections – it’s a windsock.
european politics have been stale & predictable for decades, but i think it’s safe to say the (establishment) center/left/green plurality is rapidly eroding.
euroMedia is VERY establishment, thus the public bedwetting there probably has the laundrette working in shifts.