Harris is also down 10 PP with Blacks but is up 5 PP with Whites. This has potential House ramifications.
Chart Notes
- 2024 numbers are from a Berkeley IGS Poll, released October 10, 2024.
- 2020 numbers are from a 2020 CNN exit poll.
In addition to the 21 percentage point drop for Harris among Latinos, the second striking thing is the huge percentage of undecided voters for blacks and Latinos at 10 percent and 7 percent respectively.
ISG Poll Snips
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll among 3,045 likely voters across California, finds Vice President Kamala Harris comfortably ahead of former President Donald Trump 57% to 35%, with each polling close to their respective shares of their party’s electorate in this deeply blue state. Another 3% are favoring other candidates, while 5% undecided.
Harris holds big leads in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, and the Central Coast, while Trump runs even or is narrowly ahead in Orange County, the Inland Empire, the Central Valley and in the North Coast/Sierras region.
Because of the poll’s large sample size, the responses of undecided voters can also be examined, and their opinions are more varied. For example, undecided voters choose Harris as the candidate who will do more for working people, who can better unite the country and who cares about the needs of people like you. However, undecided voters see Trump as being better in managing the nation’s economy, better in managing the nation’s foreign policy, has the right vision for the country’s future, and has the toughness needed to be president.
Democrats Make California a Battleground State
I picked up the idea for this post and created the above chart in response to the Wall Street Journal post Democrats Make California a Battleground State
A backlash against liberal governance in Sacramento is bolstering Republicans in several pivotal districts.
If Speaker Mike Johnson keeps his House GOP majority this year, he may have progressives in California to thank. The path for Democrats to retake the House runs through the Golden State, where a backlash against liberal governance in Sacramento is bolstering Republicans.
The GOP has been losing ground in California for decades, but this year may mark an inflection point. Republican registration as a share of the electorate was higher in September than it was at the same point in 2020. If that holds up until Election Day, it will be the first such rise from one presidential election year to the next since 1988. In the past two years Republicans have shrunk the voter-registration gap by 1 to 3 percentage points in seven pivotal districts. They are seeking to hold five them and pick up two.
A recent University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed Kamala Harris leading among Latinos by 19 points, down from Joe Biden’s 52-point margin in 2020. [Mish Note: My math is different. See comment below]
Harris Down Does Not Mean Trump Up by Same Amount
I calculate a 52 point margin in 2020 for Biden by subtracting Biden minus Trump exit polls (75-23=52). I calculate Harris is down 21 now (54 now vs 75 Biden in the 2020 exit poll).
Trump is not up by the amount Harris is down because of undecided voters and votes for other parties. There are no undecided voters in exit polls.
For example, among Latinos, I have Harris down 21 vs 2020 exit polls, with Trump up 12, undecided voters up 7, and someone else up 2.
The Most Accurate Pollster in 2020 Has Blockbuster Polls for Trump
Yesterday, I noted The Most Accurate Pollster in 2020 Has Blockbuster Polls for Trump
And it was not just the most accurate pollster, but three high quality polls. See the above post for details and comments on the polls, pollster bias, and the economy.
It’s the economy that is breaking hard in favor of Trump.
Addendum
Exit polls in 2020 were overweighted to people skeptical of mail-in ballots. That may mean the decline in support for Harris in 2024 vs Biden in 2020 is even greater than shown.
Addendum
Exit polls in 2020 were overweighted to people skeptical of mail-in ballots. That may mean the decline in support for Harris in 2024 vs Biden in 2020 is even greater than shown.
Anyone have a real world experience talking with young non white voters specifically.? or some anecdotal evidence?
Today had blood work done. Young girl 25, probably Puerto Rican, lets say Latino voter…Lives with her boyfriend, he is Guyanese i think is term from Guyana. We lump that into the black vote in America.
Both 25, total making 70K in NY(not alot for 2 people in NY) but they are very young, he works for Amazon)
They hate their small 2 BDr apartment, $1,650.00 monthly but are having a hard time qualifing for other apartments at that income level. She complained about the cost of everything,food , diapers, auto loans. She raised a Democrat for 3 generations to her grandma………She nows believes in Trump, got past all the lies told about him and the boyfriend loves Trump
This is the 3rd traditional multi generational Democrat voter in their late 20s I have talked to.
Dems will cheat but I think just to much to overcome as more traditional and younger democrats turning away from the party.
Trump wins……….And Mish your article prior about how renters will decide this election is spot on.
Yep, Trump not going to lose California by more than 25%, unlike in 2016 and 2020.
I saw the biggest loss for Trump was with whites in California.
Most whites in California are a wacky bunch (Woke Silicon Valley technocrats, Hollyweird cult, etc) so I would not compare them to whites in the battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
I live in CA and Trump has no chance of winning the state. I am voting Republican down ticket. I’m voting for Jill Stein for president just to piss off the democrats. Plus, the Green Party is the only party that favors independence for Puerto Rico. We need to cut loose that anchor ASAP.
A good article on polling here:
I’ve been watch Harris and Liz Cheney in a MI town hall on MSNBC and she is doing a VG job expressing herself and communicating very effectively as she directly answers the questions posed.
I am wondering who this person is compared to the outtakes we see when she comes across as a floozy airhead?
Not much of a town hall if the audience is not allowed to ask questions. This is because, as MSNBC has already admitted, the questions were prearranged with the Harris campaign.
Uh huh. And the government creates hurricanes to stop Republicans from voting also. [rotflol]
I’m sure you’ll enjoy this story. The guy you worship is nothing more than a marketing fantasy that sucked you in.:
Wow she does a great job of answering pre-approved questions that she knows is coming from a friend! My stars!!!
Your are the only 1 on the planet that thought so.
Why so much focus on polls lately from you when we all know they are an inexact metric?
They exclude large segments of the population from being counted simply because the vast majority of people don’t answer their cellphones.
I could offer a long litany of other problems with polling but I will spare you.
So why waste so many bits on writing about useless polls that if they happen to be accurate, can be ascribed to blind luck?
Inexact metrics are better than no metrics for people who are anxious to speculate on the outcome
Sad but true.
There is no shortage of subjects to write about in the world.
She is only up with whites because a lot of whites left California already hahaha
If the Democratic Party (most ironically named party of 2024) were to push Kamala aside and made a jackfruit their candidate, most Democratic party sycophants would vote for the jackfruit. They would say it’s racist/xenophobic/transphobic to not vote for the jackfruit. They would call you a speciesist if you didn’t vote for the jackfruit.
At this point, you’d have to fail an iq test to not see this. That they believe that the most ineffective VP in history has somehow transformed into an unburdening of what has been, to borrow her parlance/plagiarism. Kamala is a moron that requires delusion to support. Fortunately for her, that’s a lot of people.
I live in Silicon Valley. Most days I drive about 8 miles roundtrip to do errands. This year there are loads and loads of signs on lawns for local politicians whom I have never heard of; I am guessing that they are running for the city council or the school board. I look as carefully as I can (considering that I am driving), and so far I have seen a grand total of two Harris/Waltz signs (of course there are no Trump signs; that is not surprising). I don’t think that my neighbors are going to be voting for Trump and I would guess that they will vote for Harris, but they sure aren’t bragging about it. One whom I talked with, who voted for Biden last time, will be voting for Jill Stein.
The hispanics must not be “feeling the love” for this half-Black/half-Indian princess of attorney general, “law bitch” background. Perhaps she reminds them of ICE? The immigration enforcement men? Perhaps it’s something about her crazy laugh, the silliness in her eyes and around her mouth.
Then again, Ronald Reagan said that hispanics are natural conservatives, they just don’t know it yet. Could it be that a gradual realignment is happening with the Latino set of voters that hasn’t been factored into by pollsters yet? That would be tres mondo interesting.
The voters, who have decided the fates of many a politician, chomp at their teeth for another stab at the ballot box. This November is going to be grim, grisly and ghoulish for the Democrats — predict Trump to even win the popular vote. To read more of my writings, go to: dark.sport.blog …
“Trump is not up by the amount Harris is down because of undecided voters and votes for other parties. There are no undecided voters in exit polls.”
How is Trump not up by 21 with Latino voters? I can’t see many Latinos voting Libertarian. Who else would they be voting for? And if undecided voters aren’t in exit polls, then how’s this reducing his gained Latino votes down from 21 to 12?
Harris is down 21, Trump up 12, undecideds up 7, and other up 2.
21 = 21
There were no undecideds in the 2020 exit poll because everyone voted.
What about this do you fail to understand?
Conservatives in blue states that don’t bother voting have to be seeing blood in the water right now. Will headlines like this draw them to the polls? I would imagine so. Kamala is also going to commit another major faux pas like working a Taco Bell window for the Latin X’ers
Hard to make heads or tails from some of the polls…
Somehow Trump is closing the ground in national polls (to the extent that the popular vote isn’t guaranteed for Dems) but losing ground in swing states like PA, Wisconsin and Georgia?
They’re not all adding up…
It could well add up: People in places where the Dems have had virtually unlimited free reign, have seen what that leads to and want no more of it. While people in places where they’ve been kept in check by gridlock, has yet to experience what disasters their “programs” really are. Ditto the GOP, but most hard-core red states seem to be the Mormon ones by now. And almost no matter how useless the GOP rulers manage to be in those states, they’ll never be able to beat the “Boyscouts are evil” idiots on the other side of the aisle for sheer uselessness.
It shows Trump is at 35% and Harris at 57%. That’s an improvement for Trump since he won about 34% of the vote in California in 2020.
Maybe some of the undecided voters end up voting for Trump and he gets 36% of the California vote and Harris gets 59%, and the remainder 5% mostly goes to Green Party’s Jill Stein.
Here’s an intersting poll:
Nearly 1 in 4 Republicans believe if Trump loses he should do ‘whatever it takes’ to put himself in White House
The actual percentage is 19%.
And nothing to brag about on the flipside: 12% of the democrats feel the same way.
I wonder what the polls would have shown with George Washington doing ‘whatever it takes’ to the oppressive British to get himself into the White House.
The only difference is Trump has promised to not accept the results of the election. Or some of you may wish to lie to yourselves and claim Trump will say under ANY circumstances “Kamala won, I lost, fair and square”
Kamala, as did Hillary in 2016, would congratulate Trump for beating her the moment the vote was certain, this was the morning after Election Day in 2016. Compare that with Trump never admitting he got his backside seared by Biden on electoral votes in 2020.
I look forward to the left embrace of Trump winning in 2 weeks. I’m sure they won’t be fighting all the way up until inauguration for him to take over.
Herr Stormer & The Redcoats are coming!
No worries. It’s fairly well known that 20% of any survey group will give an outrageous answer – a few % are actually on the fringe of the bell curve and another 15-18% just finds it humorous. A lot hinges on how the question is asked too.
I dont doubt this. It meant even be a larger proportion. I married into an Hispanic family. The parents speak no English and they are full on Trump. What’s more they say that in conversations with others many are saying in whispers, after looking around to see who’s within earshot, that they are also for Trump.
Thus the polls are often wrong on his true support. He out did the polls in both 2016 and 2020. Why would anyone think its different this time
It is not just the economy+inflation+jobs but also:
White Democrats are going to turn California red if they keep bringing in illegal aliens.
From your virtual lips to….
Of course, el Jefe is popular.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/624/cpsprodpb/10E96/production/_89607296_cincodemayo.jpg.webp
Latinos are a diverse group. There are white Latinos (e.g., Vanya White, and technically, John McCain). There are black Latinos, of course there are Latino descendants of Native Americans, Asian Latinos, etc. Just as folks from around the world emigrated to the USA, they did as well to Central and South America. In fact, many of the breweries in Mexico were started by German emigrants, and so, yes, there are German Latinos. Also German Latinos escaping WW2 war crimes prosecutions. Many Latino countries are predominately white, like Uruguay, for example.
All that is true. But I’ve known (or currently know) plenty of Latinos in Texas, California and now Florida.
First, is they are very family oriented. As in nuclear family and not absent father / baby mama culture.
Second is that they absolutely abhor being considered or mistaken as ‘Black’ if they have darker skin tones.
So it’s not surprising that they don’t like Harris.
Weird. Because Kammy comes across as so personable and insightful. And the country is thrilled with the Biden Admin’s winning. So winning. Maybe locking up black men for pot and then laughing about it, and swamping Latino communities with illegals and crime, was not such a good idea.
If they can get sentenced to prison they can get a free sex change. So there’s that.
Outrageous for people to think for themselves and not just vote based on what people think they should. Get back in line folks. Listen to Obama
Putin’s plan to defeat the dollarHe hopes this week’s BRICS summit will spark a sanctions-busting big bangPutin’s plan to defeat the dollar (archive.ph)
It could hardly Putin’s plan, but Xi’s. Although by necessity he has to go along.
But it’s by The ECONomist, so it’s par for the course.
yaya
lets look at important info:
Warplanes: Billion Dollar Stealth Fighter Blunder
This is not the first intelligence scandal of this magnitude
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htairfo/articles/2024101115731.aspx#gsc.tab=0