Key Points
- Trump supporters are 86% certain to vote. Biden supporters are 89% certain to vote.
- 46 % of Trump supporters are very excited to vote. 48% of Biden supporters are very excited to vote.
The above is from an Ipos Poll post-debate, as reported by 538.
Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each candidate on a scale of 0-10, and their preferred candidate is the one who received the higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included. Respondents who already voted are included in the “absolutely certain” bucket and respondents who gave themselves a 50-50 shot of voting are included in the “not too likely” bucket.
Popularity Contest
Scoring the Candidates
On the whole, debate watchers were more impressed with both Biden and Trump’s performance than they were in the first debate: 76 percent thought the debate was “somewhat good” or “very good.” The share who thought Trump’s performance was “somewhat good” or “very good” jumped from one-third in the last debate to a little over half in this debate. Biden got higher marks, too, up from 60 percent to 69 percent.
There was less change in viewers’ assessments of their policies, though. Forty-four percent thought Trump’s policy answers were good, compared to 60 percent for Biden — although both of those ratings are a few percentage points higher than in the first debate.
Biden Won
Assuming this poll is accurate, Biden clearly won despite what I believe was a last-minute unforced error on energy policy.
I rated the debate a small win for Trump.
For discussion, please see Final Debate: Unforced Error by Biden on Energy, Lies, Missed Opportunities
But my vote does not matter. Judging from the above poll, little or nothing changed, and that was my most likely outcome.
Realistically, no change or even a small win for Trump is a loss for him.
The debates are over. If Trump did not change minds yet, there is no reason to believe he will, or even can.
Addendum
Mish
Exactly why we need a third party or more!
We could also not let ballots contain party representation. lol
I bet you would see some change in the first election after taking policy affiliation off the ballot. People would have to know who that were voting for a novel idea I guess.
I wonder what Biden Policies they are scoring. I have not heard to many policies. Wear a mask and vote trump out? Raise taxes?
How does Biden anticipate addressing China? No idea really probably the same way as the past 47 years.
Mish could you please do a piece on pre-existing conditions elated to insurance and exactly what that means?
If I add my pregnant wife to my policy (private policy CIGNA) she is covered and that is pre-existing. I am not sure our understanding of pre-existing is the same as what is being argued.
If a 3rd party, why not a 4th, 5th… 20th. Like Italy, for example. Add a party, the result is allegiances in order to gain control. A small group wields enormous power.
Far more effective will be term limits for House and Senate. Politicians with 30, 40, 50 years–they need to find another job.
JohnKill bites the dust along with any comment he has ever made and any replies to him ever made.
policy needs to be consistent across the site. the moderators are not responding to flagged comments.
So you are trying to mold the Mish comments section to only include pro-JoeBiden comments?
nope, just devoid of personal attacks
There exists a fine line between personal opinion and personal attack. If you don’t like the opinion, it can become an ‘attack.’
I have no problem with differences of opinion. I do not, for example, like people who deliberately post disinformation, but I respect their freedom of speech. On the other hand, personal attacks are out of order. Especially, if one personally attacks the host of a site, he can’t expect to remain. I don’t recall ever seeing “JohnKill”, so that may be someone who created an account just for a single post.
what if someone calls you a demon rat? where is that on your scale?
enthusiasm is misleading. Trump’s leadership is the issue. For many the enthusiasm is on removing Trump. And I’m very enthusiastic. I could have rallied around a few candidates. I also supported Bloomberg.
The big Trump camp theme was “give Biden enough rope to hang himself”–so Biden would provide living proof of the sleepy, doddering, senile Biden that Trump has been going on about since last year.
Didn’t work that way.
And Trump spent too much time on incomprehensible, incomplete phrases related to various right-wing conspiracies to appeal to an undecided voter–he had a chance early on by appearing somewhat “normal”, but couldn’t hold that throughout the debate.
When you think someone “wins” because they can be somewhat rational and civil, you know the bar is set pretty damn low.
At best, no win for either–certainly not a positive for Trump who has no answer for his screw-ups but is insisting that it’ll all be better….next month.
I will say again, no Presidential candidate should be over 65.
I’m not excited, I’m furious and embarrassed. I have voted once in my life, but from now on, for as long as the republican party exists, I will be voting for whoever can drive them from office.
I’ll just remind you that “for as long as the Republican party exists” is going to be a really long time, and a lot could happen that would make you change your mind.
I had similar feelings after Clinton (Bill, that is), but here I am 20 years later voting against every GOP member up and down the ticket. I’ll vote GOP again at some point, but I will never vote for my current GOP US congressman or GOP US senators if they appear on a ticket again.
Are you guys serious? Agree on getting Trump out. But you really want dems controlling POTUS and both houses? The Republicans have lost credibility for sure but we need them for gridlock. Gridlock is the only hope. Otherwise, they will spending and we will all be grasping, trying to live off each other.
Please. Let’s keep things gridlocked until some classical liberal with principles comes along that can communicate.
It would have made more sense if you said “for as long as the Republican Party is represented by the likes of Donald Trump…”.
“But my vote does not matter.” Certainly true of your vote for Jo Jorgensen.
I enthusiastically cast my votes—all 44 of them. Dropped the ballot in the big steel box over a week ago.
Trump won last time because of a swing in the electoral college. So in that regard, your vote didn’t count even when voting for the main two.
Again, if the third party players start picking up a sizable amount of votes, they will notice; much more so than when you throw your ballot into the current dog and pony show.
Paid holiday for all government workers, how have not missed a paycheck or even an hour of pay all year.
What the heck are you talking about?
The bitterness of those grapes