Why is the choice between shutting down the border and no controls at all? And what about demographics? Fertility rates? 
Immigration Talks We Should Be Having
Eurointelligence discusses the Immigration Talks We Should Be Having.
The ideas also apply to the US.
Last week, the European Commission set out its ambitions to strike a deal with Lebanon, to stop asylum-seekers reaching the EU from there. Giorgia Meloni [Italy’s Pime Minister] now spends so much time in Tunisia, where the EU signed another agreement to limit migration, that she should consider buying a time-share in Bizerte.
Fabio Panetta, the Banca d’Italia’s governor, recently made a welcome intervention on this. He made a point which you do not hear very often: that without more immigration, the EU will sink demographically. That will mean both its economic and fiscal situation becoming unsustainable. According to Panetta, a common EU-level policy is necessary. Migrants, legally or not, come into the EU as a whole. Even if they are legally restricted to one member state, practically speaking there is often little to stop them moving across borders in a border-free Schengen area.
In Panetta’s own home country, the situation is especially bad. Italy’s total fertility rate is now 1.25 as of 2021. This is far below the so-called replacement level of 2.1, which is necessary to keep a country’s population stable. The only thing stopping its population from cratering is the immigration it receives already. Even if the government could stumble on a way to increase the total fertility rate to replacement level, something virtually no developed country has managed, there would still be inertia.
This basic demographic reality is acute in Italy, but not unique to it. The only countries mitigating it so far are those that accept high numbers of immigrants and integrate them into the workforce, like the UK, Spain, and Portugal. Yet it is something politicians skirt around, for fear that their voters are not prepared to hear the truth.
What you end up with is a worst-of-both-worlds situation. Politicians, especially if they act on their own and not on the EU level, cannot get a handle on irregular migration and asylum-seekers, despite repeatedly promising to. All they accomplish is raising the issue’s salience, while driving disillusioned voters to the far-right.
But on the other hand, they dodge the other side of the coin, the need to accept and properly integrate migrants to keep demographic, and fiscal, balances stable. Until governments are prepared to acknowledge these trade-offs, we should be wary of the feasibility of any commitments they make to consolidate public finances in the long term.
US Fertility Rate
The lead image is from MacroTrends.
The following snip is from VOX.
In the US, the birth rate has been falling since the Great Recession, dropping almost 23 percent between 2007 and 2022. Today, the average American woman has about 1.6 children, down from three in 1950, and significantly below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children needed to sustain a stable population. In Italy, 12 people now die for every seven babies born. In South Korea, the birth rate is down to 0.81 children per woman. In China, after decades of a strictly enforced one-child policy, the population is shrinking for the first time since the 1960s. In Taiwan, the birth rate stands at 0.87.
The US numbers from VOX are a bit low. The lead chart is more current but I like the VOX discussion.
Were it not for immigration, the US population would be in decline.
Is that necessarily a bad thing? At what point does increasing population become a Ponzi scheme due to the energy and food needs?
There are a lot of questions and the only thing everyone seems to agree on is that uncontrolled migration is bad. Even Biden admits that, but he is unwilling to do anything about it.
Progressive Irony
Progressives want open borders but they also want guaranteed living wages, clean energy, slave reparations, a right to shelter, a right to free health care, and net zero carbon.
The goals are incompatible.
In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million
On March 21, I commented In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million
Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million. Let’s go over the math to see how I arrived at that number.
Government + Social Assistance Accounted for Nearly 60% of Job Growth in 2023
On January 5, I noted Government + Social Assistance Accounted for Nearly 60% of Job Growth in 2023
The welfare state is booming along with social assistance for illegal immigrants.
Family Formation
Taking a step back from immigration policy, why is it that family formation is so low?
The unfortunate answer is Fed policy and fiscal policy is so inflationary, that young adults have come to expect they will be worse off than their parents.
If so, and that seems accurate, this will be the first time in US history.
Importantly, houses are too expensive. Zoomers and younger millennials are angry over housing costs.
And millions of illegal immigrants need a home and services.
Rent is so expensive and anger so high over housing costs that People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Finally, a recurring theme: The Fed’s Big Problem, There Are Two Economies But Only One Interest Rate
The Fed is largely responsible for the housing mess and Biden/Congress is responsible for the rest.
Yet Biden refuses to do anything lest he upset the Progressives who want open borders, guaranteed living wages, clean energy, a right to shelter, a right to free health care, and net zero carbon.
In February, there was a comprehensive immigration reform bill authored by Republicans that would have passed with Democrat support and signed by Biden. It was tanked by the Republicans under Trump’s direction because he doesn’t want immigration solved before the election
We can all think and talk but the only thing that matters is what those in power are going to do. So… why not ask AIPAC and the rest of the elites what the long term plan is? Well we are all a bit too shy to do that, and nobody wants to get smeared for doing it. And so we keep sleepwalking straight to some kind of abyss, and if you close your eyes you may have a great day today!
Some interesting topics in this article worth expanding upon.
What alternative to current state of affairs is possible?
In my view this is a very political economy with investment strategies taking this into account.
MAGA a very simple catch all phrase. So where would it go outside of just sending the illegals packing?
Rebuilding the Middle Class and Americas’ Nuclear family ranks high on any agenda. The destruction of Middle Class along with Nuclear family has been direct result of Federal government interventions into the real economy for decades.
This instituted would go a long way towards solving any potential demographic shortfalls and do it with American People in focus. A clear alternative to what is a very unpopular and failing current policy.
Trumps choice for VP would get tasked with this monumental change.
Female VP choice such as Marsha Blackburn or Sarah Huckabee Sanders fits the bill.
Bringing in Ben Carson as a steady hand also goes along with primary theme.
Good politics for a MAGA candidates platform and Good policy for American citizens totally sick of Washington DC hypocrites and their Globalist masters.
Well Mish, I suspect it all has to do with the needs of empire, formerly a republic, and the petrodollar, the spice must flow for N.A.T.O, etc, with the additional feature of melting pot and singular cultures failing to assimilate “migrating” Muslims when their people must be free from sea to shining sea. After some domestic multiple two state solutions, in 20 years when the bridge is finally rebuilt with federal funds from 57 states, thanks to N.F.T.A., it’ll probably be named the Osama bin Laden Memorial Bridge instead of the original Francis Scott Key thanks D.I.E and multiple bimbo eruptions among 50 genders following the money. .
–
Because the Globalist Nutjobs want the Great Reset. You can go down the list and confirm everything logical has been turned upside down, but you fail to acknowledge that it’s all intentional. To the Nutjobs, it’s a completely logical path to the Great Reset / 4th Industrial Revolution.
Immigration corruption – link to youtube.com
The reality is, while these worthless bureaucrats are happy to plead ignorance, they know exactly what they are doing, because it’s all by design. It’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s a fact, and it doesn’t matter if one is in denial or brainwashed, the 2×4 to the back of the head will hurt the same.
The globalist are coming for your money to postpone the inevitable sovereign debt defaults and transition to digital currency to control everyone –
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1783170732991623322?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1783170732991623322%7Ctwgr%5Ec3c036a17954d10dbceac1f687011f18d78740e9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.edegrootinsights.com%2F.
link to armstrongeconomics.com
They will continue until stopped – and proving they are illogical or stupid will not stop them.
U mite be rite
Culture is epiphenomenal/superstructure.
The pill has changed the infrastructure of reproduction.
How can this be glossed over?
As for the cultural/societal causes for lower fertility, it is the result of many mutually interacting & interconnected factors. No single thing explains it sufficiently.
My thesis:
In all the OECD countries, the immigration debate is purely one of cultural, symbolical, and political strife. Real effects and policy are simply not germane.
This is amplified by the fact that the policy stance is hypocritical: The powers that be want downward pressure on wages and open borders (globalism), the people do not, and all policy is thus half-hearted; in the US, for instance, the illegal influx of migrant labor could have been quelled decades ago by strict enforcement (drastic penalties) of e-verify for all employment.
The whole idea of America as a melting pot, with immigration and liberal freedom, is what makes this country great. Now, it seems liberals and their subsets resemble Orbán, wanting a singular society.
I think the immigration issue is difficult for nationalists who desire a closed society because it contradicts everything America stands for, at least what we’re taught in schools.
I don’t recall learning in school that America is about a singular white Christian orthodox society. I learned more about libertarian values, i.e., we’re open to anyone, and it’s self-interest that makes this country great.
Aren’t immigrants acting in self-interest, which is the quintessential utopian Ayn Randian libertarian value? Obviously, these immigrants will make this country strong, just like John Galt would!
May self-interest and neoliberalism save us all! “Make America Selfish Again!” Make business our number one priority. More immigrants mean more cheap labor and more customers for the bourgeoisie.
That’s because it was simply assumed (save the fatuous ‘orthodox’ part).
Culture is a complex of behaviors, attitudes, values, habits, rituals, and corrective measures that dissipates and loses cohesion at scale and with diversity. If you change the composition of something thoroughly enough, it is no longer the same thing. Is it still a Tesla if you put in a gasoline engine and a transmission in and replace half the parts? Social coherence is based on parental, family, tribal, national, cultural & linguistic bonds. Absent, it evaporates.
It matters more to people if someone in their neighborhood or family gets killed than if 100 million Chinese perish in an earthquake, even if objectively we realize that it is a greater disaster.
“Progressives want open borders but they also want guaranteed living wages, clean energy, slave reparations, a right to shelter, a right to free health care, and net zero carbon.
The goals are incompatible.”
The goal is not incompatible with tearing down our constitutional republic, replacing it with a totalitarian state. As Benjamin Franklin said, “it’s a republic, if you can keep it.” Progessives want to eliminate it. The chaos of mass migration is intentional, not by accident. To them, it is means to an end and the end justifies the means.
ZH: “A15 is actually a reprise of efforts from Antifa and the far-left revolutionary class we saw in 2020…”
Democrats have never condemned Antifa.
“In Panetta’s own home country, the situation is especially bad. Italy’s total fertility rate is now 1.25 as of 2021.”
Elites say that at 8 billion, there are too many people on the Earth. They want population reduction. 1.25 would be good, to the elites who want population reduction. If Ferguson’s numbers would have been correct on Covid deaths, it would have reduced population, so it is odd in that regard, that they would have wanted lockdowns, so that global population growth would have continued, by saving lives. Why have a WHO Pandemic Treaty, if it is imperative to reduce population? So-called sustainable farming, because climate change, will reduce food availability. The term famine comes to mind. Contradictory agendas. Save the population vs deplete the population. The global public is being gamed.
Play God, and win stupid prizes
I want a reduction of human population of at least 7 billion. I guess that makes me a super elite!
These guys must love traffic jams, crazy weather and a lack of decent outside recreation. I won’t mention diseases, cultural conflict and all the rest.
Is it immoral for me to want immigrants to at least be self-sufficient and be a net positive for our country?
ahead of CITIZENS? yes, that’s immoral…or traitorous at the very least.
your position/POV prioritizes literal criminals over your family+neighbors… think about that, please.
You made huge assumptions from my post. Nothing I said inferred immigrants to have an advantage over our citizens & be law breakers.
Actually I want immigrants to be legal, no criminal records, & importantly there be a need for this individual to be a citizen.
Well, the vast majority of what you call ‘immigrants’ are law breakers: illegal entry without a proper visa or identification.
“..be a net positive for our country?”
They almost invariably are.
How else would they survive? They have little choice but to work. And working enough to be a net positive, considering how little they consume, is a rather trivial undertaking, compared to making it all the way from Central America and then across the increasingly militarized border.
Recent immigrants are not the ones who get to consume more value than they produce, and who are hence net negatives. Instead, that dishonor is pretty much entirely bestowed upon the natives who are handed loot by The Fed and Junta; hand over fist; in the form of pumped up “asset” appreciation, value destroying makework as ambulance chasers and “finance” idiots etc. Precious few recent immigrants are in a position to live such Fed and Junta enabled net-negative (production – consumption) lives.
Which is,ultimately, what Panetta is referring to wrt Europe. Although he’s spent enough time in the ‘tard-zoo to at least present it in much more muddled terms.
Then why do we spend $451 BILLION dollars a year on them? B.S.
Why is a sensible immigration policy discussion so hard?
Democrats operate on Mao’s principle of POVERTY POWER, and to achieve this, they are implementing the VENEZUELA MODEL whereby the poor class is vastly expanded so they become the undefeatable voting bloc, the opposition middle class is utterly annihilated, and wealthy class is left alone to own practically everything as long as they do not interfere with the one-party state. The beauty is, its all democratic: Maduro’s Party of National Unity wins every time because the poor classes depend on welfare that lifts them from the gutter but also keeps them on the precarious edge. They will always be poor because it serves the interest of the party.
In this country, the GOP is too stupid and compromised by big business’ need for cheap slave labor to oppose their own banishment to permanent minority opposition.
And that’s how it is & will be.
Sadly, I think you’ve summed it up very well. Probably not happening with malicious intent, but happening nonetheless.
Mish you talk about why cant we….you talk about issues with replacement population….you support killing unborn babiesvthat could replace population. Is it a fetus or a human life? We know the answer. Is it any wonder we are hating each other? Can we possibly ever be sensible about anything much less population policy which is at the core of economic policy?? Hatred in 3 2 1…
Obesity and stupidity are killing us.
You can’t convince a person of the veracity of a fact that undermines their career prospects.
Immigrants are more likely to live in cities and vote blue. Reds see immigration stealing Texas and Florida.
Texas as a swing state and a blue Florida, then eventually both as blue states makes presidential elections very different from today. A process to give illegal immigrants a vote would deliver something close to this today.
Every other part of the discussion rises from this foundation because politicians and think groups are motivated by their politics, not the priorities of the country.
that’s why the electoral college is critical
Why is immigration policy so difficult?
Because the interests of Washington DC (the political class) versus the rest of the country are very very different.
What is good for the political class and what is good for everyone else are two very different things.
They do not want to solve this issue its one party with two fractions and both parties use to divert attention away from their failure to actually govern. Several of these types of issues keep coming up over and over again is a bit sicking.
Both parties want cheap labor both parties want talking points that divert attention from governing.
Shouldn’t the birth rate go down as more people are in the world? Wouldn’t that be a natural phenomenon?
This is a curious when I was a younger pup I remember hearing there was too many people and we should have less kids. I did but, beat the average and now I am hearing we did not have enough so we open the border to let more in?
cheap labor? im poor, like most everyone else, i want cheap EVERYTHING. Nothing wrong with that. $20/hr min wage…is that cheap??
Don’t make things so harsh on next gen with inflation, especially rent inflation. That’s the best way to insure the continuation of our country, and our freedom. Start with an honest dollar, and taming of lobbies.
As things stand now predators are forcing next gen to work so many hours to afford a nest/family of their own that many just give up.
I would argue the reason it is so difficult to have this discussion is because both sides view the issue as a political winner with no concern about the end results other than helping them get elected/reelected. The republicans bash too much and the democrats virtue signal and say all should be welcome, and those messages play to their respective bases.
Was life so bad when the US had a population of under 300 million?
Do you want to see more farmland ruined by yet more suburbia?
Can the water table sustain how much water is extracted for both agriculture and growing cities?
When self driving cars and trucks become more than hype then there will be no need for migrants to drive NYC taxis and ditto for automated factories automated Amazon warehouses and delivery drivers.
Do you like importing gangbangers and welfare leeches to make things oh so safe?
So only import a very low number of highly qualified, skilled, educated and most importantly moral people that you would be happy to have as your neighbours.
That sounds Scary!! Running out of farmland and water!! Majority of our crops are exported or wasted making Ethanol. All the water on earth has not left the earth, its still here. Be afraid of something legitimate, like Atom bombs. Don’t waste time worrying about the wrong things.
Why does population always have to increase? This applies to all countries.
Why not have a sensible conversation about population reduction?
It’s a natural consequence of the developmental s-curve that as countries develop, their population growth slows, and eventually this leads to a return to a pre-boom population, but with inheriting all the accrued benefits of the boom.
At this point, because there is no handle on the state of play, you have to stop the immigration taps, to be able to prevent overflowing, and filter out the sewage, whilst you drain the tank of people to a sensible, manageable level.
The reaction of stopping all immigration is not just a practical measure, it’s also a reaction to the aggressive extremist increase in immigration by the Demagogue Maoist parties that seem to be dancing to the tune of the CCP.
See:
link to mishtalk.com
Debt-based Ponzi finance, that’s why!
Fertility and replacement rates are becoming unimportant with the ability of many jobs to be automated or shifted to robots. We don’t need inexperienced bodies now to fill jobs. This ability is accelerating as costs to employ humans soar.
Immigration from one country/world area to another is not something new. It has been going on throughout history due to economic conditions, weather changes, war, disease, etc. But in the past, it was a lot harder to move geographically, so moving from one place to another often required real commitment, which dissuaded many.
What is different in many western countries these days is that in the past, when one moved from one country to another, they took what they could carry with them. There wasn’t a lot of welfare or help for new immigrants. You found a job, any job, and got to work. This reality also often dissuaded many from moving.
However, in the modern western world, immigrants are now often treated far better than they lived in their home country. And often better than existing citizens of the destination country.
People lucky to earn $50 a week or month where they come from arrive in the EU or USA and are given debit cards, free lodging, free food, free healthcare, free education and more! If you are dirt poor in your origin country, uneducated and had too many kids you can’t support, coming to the EU or the USA is like discovering the pot of goal at the end of the rainbow. It’s crazy NOT to pull up roots and try to get into a western country!
With these incentives and the old economic belief that bodies are necessary for future economic growth, I don’t see government tamping down on immigration too hard any time in the near future.
Be prepared for blue city/state governments to continue to help empty our pockets via increased taxes to support the masses of poor immigrants flowing over western borders.
The idea of immigration to increase labour supply is obviously completely at odds with technological advancement reducing the need for human labour, and so the immigration simply leads to an increased underclass and increased crime, and cost of living, erasing the benefits of technology.
It has more to do with needing future taxpayers to support the entitlements that boomers promised themselves to be paid for with your money. All of those calculations depended on an ever increasing population and that’s why they’re panicking over low replacement rates.
The Fed is largely responsible for the housing mess and Biden/Congress is responsible for the rest.
—
So nothing happened before January 20, 2021 that mght have contributed to things that happen after that date?
The US needs cheaper labor and more consumers to keep corporate balance sheets growing. The border has been loose for almost 50 years but nothing like the last few. This is completely insane. I’m all for legal immigration, not opening up the flood gates and forcing taxpayers to fund this scheme.
The problem with not fostering democracy around the world and good global economy is you end up with a bunch of people at the US border. I’ve seen more Russians and Ukrainians in the last 5 years where I live. The problem is the US and west and first world in general have failed to contain authoritarian regimes around the world. These regimes have all been bad news for immigration and forced more people to leave their authoritarian countries.
The obvious thing people miss is that “democracy around the world” is in poor developing states with low to no education about how to function in a democracy, and more to the point, endemic and institutionalised corruption – which is what is being brought to the developed world… this is not adding to the developed world, but transforming it into the developing world, by importing not just people from the developing world, but their primitive values, primitive religions, and crime & corruption.
If someone feeds stray cats, they get more stray cats. This sad truth applies to unrestricted immigration also, as well as homelessness.
The US needs more skilled workers but these unfortunate people are going to create huge costs that might not be overcome for a long time, or ever.
We should not overlook social problems preventing family formation not just economic causes. MGTOW and LGBTQ are societal dead ends relative to evolution. Someone needs to make babies or we face extinction.
Bingo! We’d have more kids if we could afford to!
You wouldn’t, because as a country develops expectations rise, and people are healthier for longer, and want to indulge in “returning to adolescence” in early and prosperous retirement. Children’s education is expensive, but also the logistics is exhausting, even if you live like the Waltons.
Educated people don’t want kids. Having children is a remnant of the 1900 agricultural culture, where child labor was necessary.
Every educated man I know wanted to have kids, but by the time they were reasonably established enough to have them, they were almost 40.
Their gfs were over 35 by then. Biological reality hit: that’s not the optimal age for women to be having children, nor is it the optimal time in terms of parental stamina.
Our adulthoods have been inflated away.
Hollywood actresses are in general not chosen for their intellectual powers, although over the years there have been a few.
They are chosen for their Sex appeal.
Now what is it about Sex appeal that matters? Hmm could it be procreation.
Seems Sex appeal still matters. What is it about Woman who have Sex appeal and Class. Their are whole industries catering to appearance.
So in truth their is no lack of Sex occurring. What seems to be missing are the children which used to come from such activities.
Demonizing Motherhood instead of elevating has become a policy pursuit.
That a Woman can find fulfillment in raising a Family is preached as so passe.
This is a cultural phenomena and as such is subject to change.
Would suggest there are quite a few Woman who wish they could raise a family instead of punching the clock over at an Amazon shipping station.
Perhaps instead of pissing so much money away blowing things up all over the globe. some effort should be made at allowing the Family unit to prosper again. That would go a long way towards solving any Demographic shortages currently occurring.
The family unit is a thing of the past and will not be returning. It got destroyed when woman started entering the workplace ien masse in the 1960’s to 1970’s.
Now, it is difficult for a single income to support a family, which is what is required for a woman (or man) to stay home and take care of a family.
It’s only a thing of the past amongst a minority demographic of ugly people.
It will always return because conservatives by nature outbreed the lunatics.
The economics will break, because it’s built on unsustainable debt and phantom growth; and the economy will be rebuilt, but it will be polarised between traditionalists and radicals, but radicals by nature will always be in the minority, it’s just occasionally there are periods like the French Revolution where the lunatics take over the asylum, but eventually, the majority want and need to return to normalcy and stability just for the economy at least, but also because constant change is exhausting.
This is a cultural arrangement what you have described.
Direct consequence of modern doomsday cultists with nothing to show for living, have engaged upon.
It is everywhere, the empty lives seeking some comfort in material things as if that can stave off the darkness in their souls.
As people are discovering having money does not replace having a Life.
Bulk of people are now looking for something with real meaning and this age of materialism draws to close.
Having children should not be a luxury item such as having a new Car. There are people making the choice to rebuild Family life and are willing to act to accomplish that goal.
It is actually fatherhood that has been demonized by women. So many women don’t love the fathers of their children. Just go to any family court room, and watch what happens. Things have gotten better for men, but women still want your wallet, and try and limit the time spent with fathers so as to receive their welfare benefits. Once custody is 50-50 many benefits for the majority custodial parents disappear. Women will fight tooth and nail to be at least 51% custody, and will disparage fathers to do so. They will ruin their kids life just for the benefits, and pretend to be a stay at home mothers. 50 years of LBJ Great Society social engineering to accommodate lack of Sacred procreation has finally become a chicken come home to roost. LBJ only provided the Butter part of the equation to overcome the genocidal Guns part of the equation of the Vietnam war.Boomers gobbled up the destruction of the family like it was a good thing. I feel sorry for the people Traumatized in Ukraine and Gaza all to make a buck.
Culture is epiphenomenal/superstructure.
The pill as changed the infrastructure of reproduction.
How can you miss it?
The line Mish misses is voter replacement – millions and millions of immigrants with no ties to the culture, heritage or history to this country. This, plus generational decline, already sees free speech going out the window as something no one cares about.
I find people thumping about “the Constitution” sort of quaint as we are becoming a country where everything is all about tribalism and group power dynamics based on race and ethnic classification.
Importing millions upon millions of millions of immigrants is a way to accelerate this trend and prevent any reversal or slowdown. So any reduction in illegal immigration at all – even a little – is fought tooth and nail. Even moderate reduction with presidential orders – which take no work of Congress – are being ignored.
Only citizens should be allowed to vote!
C’mon Mish. You know, or should, that employment of those over age 60 will NOT drop by 12.5 million in 5 years. Repeating a false claim doesn’t make it true, and the tactic makes you look as bad as those you debate against.
Yes, 12.5 million people who are currently over 60 will retire or die, and thus drop out of the workforce over the next 5 years.
But they will largely be replaced by those currently age 55-60, who will then be over age 60 in 5 years. There are around 12-13 million such people.
The net change in over-60 employment will be a tiny fraction of 12.5 million, most likely not even a delta of 1 million.
Toss in immigration and a long-overdue savings-destroying recession, and the over-60 employed workforce might even increase!
The key phrase is ‘over 60’, which includes not just the cohort of ages 60-65 but all of the Baby Boomers who are over 65 and have reached the traditional age of retirement. Many of the 65+ Boomers are still working in some capacity, but the oldest are about 78 years old and very few people keep working well into their 70s.
Gen X is simply too small to completely replace the Boomers in the workforce.
I get that Mish’s 12.5 million includes everyone over age 60. But I’m a scientist, I checked his math, and it’s wrong. I’ve been commenting about it for several threads and I think it’s a shame that he continues to repeat something that’s definitely dodgy data.
I highly recommend that Mish recheck his work and clarify the record. If one accounts for every age bracket aging up and replacing those ahead of them, Mish’s effect nearly vanishes. The age 55-60 group is not that much smaller than the 60-65 group, and ditto for every age range above and below. For the over-60 workforce to drop by 12.5 million in 5 years, there would have to be 2.5 million over-60 people disappearing from the workforce every year, and if that were true we’d already be seeing it.
Relevant data is basically all here: link to bls.gov
I’d add that the more an “interesting” piece of information agrees with your personal biases, the more you need to be skeptical about it, because your own tendency toward confirmation bias is working against you.
P.S. Please don’t use fake demographic labels like “Boomers”. To label one person a “Boomer” and someone else born just a decade (or even a year, or in a few thousand cases merely 1 day) later as “Gen X” is nearly as bad a form of prejudice-inducing stereotyping as any racist or religious zealotry.
People are people, and when they were born doesn’t make them all that different. But placing labels on people empowers labelers by skewing public perception of some groups at the expense of others. That contributes to the identity politics nonsense that divides the country, and is especially pernicious when a crisis arrives and we need to compromise to solve serious issues. (Seriously, Strauss & Howe couldn’t find a properly descriptive name for “Gen X” or “Gen Z”, but “Boomers” got a real name and “their” “Millennial” kids also got a nice name? I call BS).
Never accept a label stuck on you by anyone else!
Total population ages 60-74 will probably actually increase slightly over next 5 years, if mortality rates don’t change. I used the BLS.gov population data linked above, and CDC mortality rates, as shown in the table below.
Age Group
Total Pop, 2024 (thousands)
2021 Mortality Rate (deaths per 1000)
Total Pop, 2029 (excluding net immigration)
20-24
21,339
0.8
25-29
21,400
1.6
21250.1
30-34
23,047
1.6
21230.5
35-39
22,295
2.5
22864.5
40-44
21,726
2.5
22018.4
45-49
19,731
4.8
21456.5
50-54
20,264
4.8
19262.2
55-59
20,022
10.5
19782.6
60-64
21,281
10.5
18972.6
65-69
19,067
21.0
20165.7
70-74
15,709
21.0
17060.9
Total 60-74
56,057
56199.2
FYI, mortality rates have changed dramatically since 2021.
I used the latest report. It shows mortality rates returning to pre-pandemic levels and life expectancies recovering.
Also of note the Social Security retirement age will be increasing.
One of the big issues with Hispanics is the overwhelming lack of cultural and language assimilation. I know several who have been here for well over 40 years and can barely put together a coherent English sentence. They rely on their kids to do everything.
You should meet more hispanics, then. Many of the ones I know speak better English than the native-born citizens I know.
I am married to an Hispanic. The parents are one example of what I mentioned. They are educated and yet it is still the case. In Southern California if you go anywhere in public you will inevitably have someone come up to asking you something in Spanish without even asking if you speak the language. I’m not sure where you are meeting all of these ‘eloquent Hispanic immigrants’ even members of other immigrant communities make the same observations about them.
That’s true of all ethnics. I grew up in a heavily Italian area. Many of the old people at that time had been in the country for decades and still could not speak English.
Where is the evidence that “Progressives want an open border”? It is true that some progressive Democrats favor letting existing undocumented immigrants remain in the country and having a path to citizenship for them, but this is a long ways from an “open border.” Democrats were more than willing to compromise and reform immigration, but let’s be clear here, Republicans blew up any sensible reform, as they wanted a political issue to campaign on, rather than a solution.
link to thehill.com
The Hill, seriously?
I recall that bill failing not because “Republicans blew it up” but because when sensible people looked at the actual language of the bill, they realized it was yet another say-one-thing-do-another Trojan Horse facade of respectability, which not only didn’t “reform” immigration but actually de-facto legalized the current policy of allowing millions of people into the country in contravention of current immigration law.
So where is the Republican bill?
Which Republicans?
I think it’s now clear that the nations has 3 or 4 political parties but they are hiding under 2 party names.
There are the conservative Republicans and the uniparty RINOs, with Mike Johnson having recently flipped to the RINOs.
There are also the corporate Dems (DINOs to me) on the other half of the uniparty, and the more extreme progressive/communist wing.
The only group of the 4 that supports individuals and the Cibstitution as written seems to be the conservative Republicans, though as Mish has pointed out even that groups has factions that want to overly restrict reproductive freedom…
I have yet to see a bill from any faction of the Republicans. The Democrats could at least come together and craft a bill.
No new bill is needed. We just need an executive branch that respects and enforces the existing law. This is why Mayorkas was impeached.
Biden could, in theory, strongly limit asylum claims and restrict crossings, but the effort would be almost certainly be challenged in court and would be far more likely to be blocked or curtailed dramatically without a congressional law backing the new changes. Mayorkas was impeached as a political stunt demanded by the Freedom Caucus.
Since you don’t like TheHill, perhaps you like NBC better, especially when they quote Republican Leader Mitch McConnell saying Trump blew up any chance of bipartisan border reform? I read the bill, btw, and it was not a Trojan Horse, and had real reforms, so not sure where you are getting that talking point from.
link to nbcnews.com
If you now reference CNN as a reliable source, do I get a set of free steak knives?
Trump blew it up because there was no reform, it was all gaslighting. People need to read the actual text of these bills, not the bogus titles and not the propaganda.
Can you cite one example of this?
The evidence is everywhere, unless you want to play fast and loose with who is a progressive. And please, use the legal term to avoid any confusion – illegal alien.
Then you should be able to cite one example. I’m waiting.
And no that’s not the legal term for the following reasons:
Similarly there is a legal difference to saying that Donald Trump is a rapist vs saying he was liable for sexual assault.
Great article. The other issue about immigration is the energy, creativity and work ethic. I read the comments and know many think they are free loaders. Ccme to Vermont and visit a farm to see lazy immigrants. You will be quite amazed at what these lazy people actually do – a lot of work. Immigrants work hard to get here and usually are willing to work hard to get ahead. The United States is a great country because of the collection energy of many different cultures. It is what will keep us a great county, but like everything needs to be managed. Lots of good ideas on both sides – lets talk.
Uh huh. But Americans can work hard also.
All that needs to be done is to remove welfare, food stamps, the ability to make [fake] disability claims, etc. and force Americans to go back to work.
There is no immigration policy under current administration. people are just walking over the border , flying in on government provided free flights, getting benefits, getting work permits, overstaying visas, no deportations, and they are even being asked to vote in elections by NGOs. Terrists are getting in, drugs are flowing ,cartels are controlling the border, they can just shutdown the DHS/BPS/ICE and save some tax payers money.
The Biden administration is afraid of being called names by their progressive left and losing votes if they deny poor immigrants entry to the USA. Names like “heartless”, “cruel”, “dream killers”, “selfish”, “uncompassionate”, “haters”, etc., etc.
How about significant jail time and big fines for employers of illegal workers?
With no jobs on offer, many immigrants won’t come
Texas employers employ 10% of all illegal workers in the US–with that type of incentive, of course they come to Texas
But hey, performative nonsense from Texas politicians masks that fact
They know where a low-cost, subservient worker comes from
See the real outlook on immigrants emerge when fines and jail time threatens
People have been saying this for at least 30 years. Politicians depend on campaign contributions that come from big business. They will not bite the hand that feeds them.
I was wrong. I came across this story last evening and it appears that the politicians in FL DO have the cojones to go up against the pro-immigration lobby. If only this could get propagated to other states now…
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another great post by Mish. Does he ever get any thanks for the hard work? Heck no. We’re all indebted, and most importantly, there’s no meanness, and anyone posting should follow the same rules. Assume good assumptions and be nice.
I agree.
US political leadership @ the federal level is globalist (anti-american).
Therefore, all US domestic policies are now tuned to the “self-destruct” setting.
Globalists are not going to participate in a rational domestic policy discussion on any issue. Their POV & prescription is already cast in concrete – weaken the USA from within. Why would they give oxygen to citizens or national sovereignty when their clear objective is to suffocate both.
This is not rocket science… rather, it is clear/obvious for all to see.
Immigration policy is hard because those who discuss it are not the smartest of the lot, and are guided by academics who aren’t smartest either.
Particularly bad in Europe where thinking outside the box is verboten.
The fiscal situation it should purportedly address, is one they themselves have created.
A smaller population is actually a good thing. It means more (land, water and other resources) for everyone and has other benefits like reducing traffic / pollution etc.
There is not a single problem where the answer is ‘more population’ unless one wants cannon fodder to die in war.
Somehow crazies have fooled people into think that if the population declines that within a few years the whole country will be depopulated or something. If the USA population declined by 50% over the next few decades it would be roughly in line with what it was when I was born in the mid 60’s. That was actually a pretty good time from what I recall from my youth (lots of land, water and other resources plus less traffic and pollution etc). So what’s the big deal if we get a 50% decline over 50 years to get back to where things were when I was born.
Basically we don’t need more people and declining population is what should occur when countries/land reaches natural limits on resources.
It’s the demographic shift. Grandma and Grandpa need young workers around to Wait on them and then hang around and wipe butts until they die off. Sorry to sound flippant, but the SHIFT IS ON.
Grandma and grandpa need to wipe their own butt. Or their family needs to do it for them (which is how things were in the 1960s when family took care of their elders instead of the state). It’s not rocket science.
The reason is a people Ponzi scheme. More people are needed to pay for the failed Keynesian economics practiced for decades. The government is trapped by its own doing and needs more people to pay for social programs. It’s far worse in the EU.
Generally agree but the problem is this:
EVERY modern economy is based on the continuous increasing growth of jobs, of workers, of taxes, all to pay for worker salary/benefit increases that support more spending (consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy), which leads to increased company profits, which makes companies more valuable, which makes Wall Street happy.
Automation and robots deployed into workplaces, both blue & white-collar are throwing a wrench into this model because they displace humans from jobs but unfortunately, they don’t pay taxes.
Without increased taxes there will not be any way to pay the ever growing costs of Social Security, Medicare, pensions, civil servant retirements, etc.
No one knows how to address this problem so we keep doing the same things that worked 20, 40, 50 years ago.
Robots displacing workers essentially proves we don’t need more people since machines are doing more work and in fact the average worker today probably does more than the average worker in the 60s (not saying they work harder, just that thanks to machine help they produce more).
Obviously as the population declines there will be some pain for those relying 100% on the government. But that’s probably no different than the pain that happened when population increased and there was a lack of housing/infrastructure/goods etc. In essence there is always pain of some kind since we don’t live in a utopia.
They will try to raise corporate taxes and probably any other tax they can get away with.
But, it’s an endless path of current spending and new spending programs that continues unabated….that’s where the focus should be. Where’s the limits of this? Clearly, none (or at least very, very few) of the current politicians care to even think about the consequences of the pace of spending.
No one knows the limits but they don’t know what else to do. All the premises that our modern economies were built on are crumbling in the face of automation, unfettered immigration and uncontrolled spending.
To try and rein in the excesses will crash the economy and will guarantee that you and possibly your whole party, will be replaced by the other party.
So everyone keeps warily circling the chairs, waiting for the music to stop and see who/what survives.
Yes. Demographics is the ultimate Ponzi, with no exit strategy.
Sensible … Why does the USG aggressively market LGBTQ? Civil rights? Ha ha, no. Population control. But if population falls, economies weaken. If population control is weaponized, then the antidote to LGBTQ at home is unbridled immigration. Moar workers. Moar voters. Moar bodies for the war machine. Who is going to immigrate to China? Their population is now declining. Demographics is destiny, etc.
How can anyone still believe the population control conspiracy theories after what we went through with COVID? Govt’s around the world were handed the perfect opportunity to reduce the population organically by doing nothing (or at least the elderly with co-morbitities who were the only ones truly at risk) and instead they chose to bankrupt all of us to keep grandma alive for two months longer than she would’ve if COVID had never happened.
Exactly. Most conspiracy theories are the result of people that simply don’t understand how things work. The idea that our government is ever competent enough to pull something off like large scale population control, without leaving a huge documentary record is just absurd.
Hmm. Perhaps a deflationary depression would turn things around.
A declining population can be compensated by increasing capitalization and productivity. Nothing can compensate for adding millions of additional generational welfare recipients. A declining population with increasing productivity is a good thing, yet none seem to even wish to discuss the issue.
To the politicians and the Deep state, retaining power is their first concern. More bodies, more votes.
It’s political. A sensible immigration policy would lean heavily toward a merit system. This would skew away from the demographic Democrats prefer; and would lead to more white and/or educated folks that may not vote reliably for Democrats.
winner, winner, we have a winner!
Because both parties prefer politicking over the issue. Why did R’s negotiate an immigration deal and then kill it when T-rump told them to?
Do you mean H.R.2 bill that Dems killed? May be you wouldn’t know about H.R.2 because MSM misinformed you with a cock and bull story. See, your h8 for T make you boldly accept lies and repeat them.
I’m talking about the compromise immigration reform act which Trump helped kill in February. Republicans refuse to negotiate and prefer to have undocumented asylum seekers streaming over our border so they can campaign on it. Sad!
How did Trump really helped kill it? what official/elected position does he has? BTW, if you read so called immigration reform act in between the lines you will understand why it was killed, it is not meant to to stop illegal immigration but to increase it with more funding from the government – yes literally. On the other hand H.R.2 bill (Secure the Border Act) was passed by the house Republicans in 2023 but Democrats in the Senate killed it, please read H.R.2 bill and you will understand who want illegal immigration for elections and votes.