I strongly question the Silver Bulletin assessment that Kamala Harris currently is a 58.9 to 41.1 percent favorite in Pennsylvania.
The above chart is courtesy of Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
On the surface the chart smacks of bias. I think the odds are wrong but bias has nothing to do with it.
There are 11 pages of polls that go into the forecast. They date all the way back to a YouGov poll on 2024-08-23.
Personally I would throw that away. Silver nearly does because that poll has an influence of 0.012. Recent polls have more influence.
38 polls make up the current projection. The above chart shows influence tapering off and it continues down to the above YouGov poll before falling off.
Where to Cut the Line?
I don’t know the answer but the cutoff point influences the odds.
For example. A Siena NYT poll 9/11 – 9/16 has Harris up by four percentage point with an influence of 0.66.
A new poll from Siena will reduce the influence of that poll. And if it tilts to Trump the odds will change significantly.
Siena is a top tier pollster as is Fox News. Silver comments on Pollster Bias.
Fox News’s polling department has long played it straight down the fairway, even if their editorial coverage hasn’t.
If we get an R +1 Rasmussen poll for example, the model thinks about it more like a D +2 poll due to Rasmussen’s large house effect. But an R +1 NYT/Siena poll is treated pretty much like an R +1 result.
Among our two highest-rated pollsters, for instance, NYT/Siena has had some bad data for Harris recently, while Selzer just published some excellent numbers for her in Iowa (only down 4 to Trump).
There were at least 10 consecutive polls with an influence above 0.5 in mid-September where Trump never had a lead. The result is shown in the lead chart.
Now four of the most recent polls have Trump ahead with one even.
I suspect the influence of the Harris-Trump debate is finally wearing off and Silver has not properly factored that in.
You can see the same thing but to a smaller degree in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The Best News for Trump
The best news for Trump is the Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (Fox News) poll which has a historical tiny Democrat bias. That recent poll has Trump ahead in Pennsylvania by 0.5 percentage points.
Patriot Polling only has a Republican bias of 0.3 so that was another solid poll for Trump.
Trafalgar is best read as Harris plus 0.5 percent not Trump +2.2 percent.
Unfortunately, Silver did not list the bias of AtlasIntel, but unless that pollster has a huge Republican bias that also looks good for Trump.
I consistently see people mocking NYT and Fox news polls as biased but they are both very high quality and minimally biased.
What Are the Odds?
I am a big fan of momentum and also more recent polls, more so than Silver. A solid poll from NYT in favor of Trump with no deterioration elsewhere would have me thinking Trump is ahead.
Right now it looks more like a tossup than a 58.9 to 41.1 edge for Harris.
Polymarket currently shows Trump 55-45 for PA. That carries more weight IMHO than any of the polls.
I might also say that Kamala is such a lying moron, if she wins, H.L. Mencken’s quote applies: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
“It’s the economy, stupid.” Sorry Kamala lovers, she’ll have to dig out her knee pads in about a month. Maybe next time don’t have your betters pick a dullard to represent.
I agree we were at 50-50 but the natural disasters IMO have changed that. Trump has done well for that. I am sure his training in business have helped, and the one thing no wants is someone playing politics in a crisis which Kamala just did. That was the death of John McCain in 2008. The video on the above link is damning as well.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hurricane-helene-exposes-deep-betrayal-america
Americans should note: $20 million for the victims of Helene and well over $640 million for illegal aliens and approximately $180 BILLION for Ukraine. When does THIS Damned MADNESS Stop!?!
The video on the above link is damning as well. The usual Democrat method of attacking the source is not going to work with that video.
What are the odds it actually makes a difference? USA will lose in Ukraine. Inflation will come back big time (along with a recession). Trump’s migration policies will be thwarted by progressive judges. The country does not have adequate awareness of its declining importance in the world. That’s a precondition to the success of some future president (neither Harris nor Trump has a clue).
100%
Emerson was most accurate in 2020. Nearly all national polls are msm polls, after the fact reviews show they were off and biased towards the dems by 2.5 – 6%, Emerson also but just biased 1%. ( I’ve wondered if the bias might be on account of minorities shifting from dem to rep, but if so this has continued.). Anyway, Emerson most recently called Pa a tie, imo that might indicate a slight trump lead. Plus, there hasn’t been time for the vp debate effect to show in the polls, and that might have shifted a few on the fence.
Biden came out at news conference and assured everyone present that Harris was instrumental in pushing thru Biden’s agenda.
Harris tries soooo hard to run from Biden and present herself as change candidate and then Joe brings her right back in.
Some say he is still pissed about getting the Boot by his party. Threw Harris under the Bus intentionally.
Me I think he believes he did a great job and by linking Harris with Biden administration he was just helping her out.
Does not really matter which is true. Biden did a number on Harris.
Yeah, these vindictive old men!
Trump is a middle finger from the flyover states to those who rule us. He never was able to break into New York high society, and that has marked him in good way for the USA. He still has all those flaws and I can’t stand the man, but he is currently our best choice, and that makes him a marked man, in a bad way.
The opinion of 10,000 men is of no value if none of them know anything about the subject. – Marcus Aurelius.
Trump is crushing her on the economy and the border and is making significant gains in every demographic – blacks, asians, jews, union workers, and young voters. Yet Nate has Kamala up big in PA.
Sorry Nate but nobody is buying it.
Nate is factoring in the 25% cheat vote.Dementia patients in nursing homes, votes for black folks that dont even bothe to vote, etc etc
I don’t think they poll illegals and the dead.
I don’t get how anyone can think Biden was a stronger candidate, and would outperform, Harris. Especially after January 6th, the convictions, and Trump saying that the election and entire system of criminal justice had been successfully rigged against him.
Trump might be able to flip Georgia red, but not Pennsylvania.
lol, we’ll find out in a month!
Is this being addressed by ANY candidate?
Or for that matter the numerous data breaches
Chinese hackers access US telecom firms, worrying national security officialshttps://www.cnn.com/2024/10/05/politics/chinese-hackers-us-telecoms/index.html
“On the surface the chart smacks of bias. I think the odds are wrong but bias has nothing to do with it. There are 11 pages of polls that go into the forecast.”
Mish, why are you so quick to throw out bias? If Nate is part of The System like I think he is, then 11 pages of biased polling produces a biased result.
There are 10 different ways from Sunday that Nate & any polling for that matter, pro Harris or Trump, can introduce bias into their polling. It’s that simple. While there’s nothing wrong with your breaking down polling analysis, IMHO I think you have too much faith in polling.
My apologies for making a derogatory statement about your opinions on tariffs & sanctions. I’ll keep my difference of opinion more mundane. Thanks for the e-mail.
Obviously Nate is counting the millions of illegal voters you are not considering.
Anecdotally from Pittsburgh (well Butler), there really aren’t that many Trump signs anywhere, and an order of magnitude less than last election. Last election went over 70% (R) here, but still voted out Maga Mastriano – public polling shows although many here voted straight (R) ticket, about 1/3 bailed on Mastriano.
No Harris signs either, well anywhere.
What destroyed Hillary was her disapproval rating. More people wanted to vote her out than see her in office. This time around Trump has this headwind. Too bad Trump shot down mail-ins. With the aging population in PA generally, and how rural things are outside of Pitt and Philly, these more (R) demographic voters probably would’ve voted by mail instead of staying home.
For what it’s worth, the PA (R) party revamped the entire election system and mail in ballots in 2019 to stop the Philly crap going on – voter verification, cleaning of voter databases, barcoded mail-in, a public site to see where your ballot is and the status, etc. Trump’s minions filed dozens of lawsuits here, and couldn’t proven not one thing. The one thing (R)’s are fighting against is pre-canvasing (like other states so the mail-in is known election day), so we know the result election day – just to give Trump more to complain and question.
Funny, I voted for Trump and Perry (our local guy) by mail-in, and they BOTH wanted my vote thrown out. Not a good vibe, just sayin’
I’m in California and I don’t see any signs, billboards, bumper stickers or t-shirts for Harris.
Best news for Trump is Netanyahu stirring things up in the middle east. Has only downside potential for Harris. Trump’s base is already Israel firsters.
The common people have been learning from all the influencers and news sources that it is necessary to lie in order to survive. So no one tells the truth anymore.
Consequently, all the polls are just a waste of a clean pair of underwear and a good breakfast. Go back to bed!
Harris isn’t coming close in Iowa. The poll cited was the first poll done after Biden quit, when Harris was the new thing. Also, being an Iowan, I know people will lie or not talk to the Red Moines Register pollsters. Outside of the Des Moines and Iowa City areas, the paper is considered a liberal joke.
I learned something new today, Iowans are liars. Thanks for the tip.
Ann Selzer’s polls were off by 7-8 points in Iowa in 2016 and 2020. Trump won Iowa by over 8 points in 2020. There’s no way in hell Harris will win Iowa. She might not even win Minnesota.
I believe polling doesn’t matter much in this race.
I predict on Election day, Harris will underperform her polling numbers just like Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she was predicted to win.
Why? Harris has a fatal flaw just like Clinton–as Richard Nixon once said, the worst sin a politician can have is to be dull. And Harris is dull.
On top of that, she doesn’t come out of her mousehole to engage the public, which shows a lack of leadership. She’s playing not to lose, and, as many have witnessed in sports, when that happens, they usually end up losing.
On the other hand, I can see Trump overperforming with the youth and minorities — who are probably underepresented in polling — and not necessarily because of his policies on immigration, inflation, Israel, etc.
To them, the one way they can give the middle finger to DC is to vote for Trump.
I see a repeat of 2016.
While you make some solid valid points, there’s one thing you are forgetting that wasn’t a factor in 2016. Trump is now a known commodity. In 2016 people knew Trump as the “Apprentice” guy and that’s about it. Voters didn’t have a good understanding of who Trump really was but they do now. Many do not care for his child-like behavior. I agree with you that Harris is dull and dumb to boot but she’s viewed more favorably than Trump. Favorability matters. I have no idea whether that will be enough for Harris to pull out a win. I’m with Mish on this election….it’s a toss-up with a momentum shift towards Trump.
No new wars, jobs, only time the lower 25% saw their wages rise by a decent amount.
Yea, ppl really hate that!
Normally I would worry about ballot shenanigans in Philly and Detroit, but Whitmer and Shapiro both have eyes on the presidency, so they may not expend any effort to expand the margin of fraud. Harris will obviously win the majority of black votes, but I’m not sure a light skin, Jew-marrying, childless half-Indian can gin up turnout – especially among black men. Advantage Trump.
Higher turnout is to Trump’s advantage.
All the polls will get redder as the election nears, with the exception of those couple that were already there. Pollsters’ accuracy is judged by their last pre-election poll, so earlier ones can push a narrative or generate a headline. The story will be that Trump pulled away at the end, but that will just be pollsters wringing out some of their bias so they don’t look ridiculous.
Harris’s campaign has really lost its energy and luster. Not to mention Biden’s warmongering has absolutely trashed U.S. foreign policy. Sitting around hoping Trump will screw up is a stupid strategy this go around. Everybody knows Trump is the world’s biggest bullshitter nowadays. We have a pretty good feel for what he is gonna do, dial down the forever wars, try to get a handle on the illegal immigration, and spend too much damn money. However the alternative Harris will make zero headway on all three of these.
That sums it up nicely. I would only add that the Vance-Walz debate will definitely work in Trump’s favour, if only by a point or two.
I have been following US politics for decades and Harris-Walz is the worst ticket in memory. And that says a lot.
True. With Trump you know exactly what you are going to get. Kamala, not so much. I don’t think Kamala even knows what she stands for.
Basically the election comes down to Pennsylvania.
In 2016, Trump won 48.18% to 47.46%. In 2020, he lost 48.84% to 50.01%.
What’s interesting is the voter turnout was 16% higher in 2020 vs. 2016, possibly due to TDS. (Or ballot stuffing?)
I suspect the turnout in 2024 will be closer to 2016 levels than 2020 levels, which should favor Trump.
It was higher because dems figured out if you vote early by mail its much easier to find voters who havent voted and contact them. Repubs were asleep. The republicans actually are doing this in rural areas for the first time. Turnout will exceed 2020
“Contact them”. Good one!
It was ballot stuffing. Those unfolded mail-in ballots were a real mystery. This time higher turnout would favor Trump. Harris is no “Scranton Joe”. SE Pennsylvanians had been exposed to Biden for 50 years because Delaware is within broadcast range of their media market. Harris’ base of college professors and genderqueers are sure to vote for her. The ones on the edge are the working class, and if they vote, the majority will vote for Trump.
There was nothing of a sort, if you’d take a moment to read. The (R) party rebuilt the election process in 2019 to address the Philly BS that was going on.
Even after Trump’s dozens of lawsuits, no one found anything. There was no “mystery”
Can’t speak to other states, but PA was run legit.
Bullshit. They didn’t even segregate the mail-in ballots from the in-person ballots as they had been directed in advance by Justice Alito to do.
Doesn’t matter who cast votes, only who counts them.
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 cycle (possibly they did everything wrong and just happened across the right answers, but I’ll take their luck vs. pollsters that somehow had 100% of their errors in the same direction — looking at you CNBC, Reuters/Ipsos, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, CNN, ABC/WaPo)
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1375095262516027392
https://x.com/AlbertaBound9/status/1835177882781442271
It’s almost as if some pollsters are trying to influence the results instead of predict them.
Matters not who wins.
Social Security, Medicare, public education, Medicaid to go bankrupt soon enough.
There is no such thing as the lesser of two evils when financial crises arives.
Oh yea there is… You’ll understand “ lesser of 2 evils” when govt comes after you during the crisis, instead of doing what’s just.
Ever notice how the bankers never faced justice after 2008? They were deemed the lesser of 2 evils by Obama admin.
RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard see Trump as the lesser of two evils. Dick Cheney likes Harris because she’s the greater of two evils.
The Cheneys like her because she is the greater of two evils. Cheney is a POS and Satans spawn. One of the most corrupt evil politicians ever.
“…lesser of two evils…”
I’ve always found this to be a really dumb argument. You still end up with more net evil. You’re just rationalizing (hoping) that the evil doesn’t darken your doorstep.
By the way, who did Trump have as his Treasury secretary? Why Steven Mnuchin of course. Who just so happens to be an investment banker.
Both parties have been promoting indebting our children, socialism and communism, thats why theyre called the Uniparty. Theyve been supporting socialism in the real estate and housing industry for 15 years by suppressing mortgage rates. Just look at the government holding of mortgage backed securities that put trillions more debt on americans. Why doesnt Trump denounce that if hes a man of the people? So there would likely be little to no difference how they handle a crisis because theyve both been ignoring all the warning signs building for decades.
If you could legally print dollars would you ever go bankrupt? The US Gov is monetarily sovereign.
So was Weimar Germany
Depends on the turnout of the Long Island precincts.
I don’t; just look at the demographics of #1, Philly, #2 Harrisburg, and finally Pittsburg. How can you win the Electoral College with that concentration of socialist non-workers?
Unfortunately, no republican has ever won Pennsylvania
@ Brad. Wikipedia begs to differ with the notion that “no Republican has ever won Pennsylvania:
“In all, the Republican Party has carried Pennsylvania in 26 presidential elections, the Democratic Party in 20, …
Wikiedia is fake news
Trump is winning. There is no possibility that trump is even in national polling and not ahead in all these swing states
Silver was a vegas handicapper failure in sports and his model isnt real. Hes a poor poll picker that backfeeds a “model” based on the news cycle.
Mish is a smart guy but cant seem to figure this out. Mish also couldnt figure out why vance was the perfect vp pick – i wonder if he sees it now?
Brad, why was Vance the perfect VP choice?
Besides how well vance has done on media appearances and the debate, without him trump wouldnt be alive. If nikki haley were his vp pick he would be a goner. I think trump was savvy enough to figure it out after butler pa
There is a reason that assasin was allowed to take that shot pre convention and the next would be assasin didnt get one off
Vance is linked up to the CIA via Peter Thiel and the Palantir crowd. Terrible assassination insurance. I think Trump would be blowing away Harris if he had selected Gabbard and picked up a bigger chunk of the independent and female vote.
Thiel has probably gone Deep State. (Plata o Plomo) Vance is still the best assassination insurance of the choices that were realistically available. I like Gabbard, but her stance on 2nd Amendment probably made her non-viable. The Deep State still held out hope that Haley might be picked for VP. Then Trump would have been assassinated after his inauguration (if he won). It was only when news that Vance was to be the pick that Crooks was activated. The hope was that Haley could replace Trump as the presidential candidate (having come in 2nd in the primaries).
I hope you are correct, Vance looked very presidential in the debate
X
Keep telling yourself that, so you can be properly outraged when he inevitably loses. It won’t even be close.
At the end of the day my life wont change much whoever wins. Im just telling you what is going to happen. Kamala wouldnt be saying she owns guns, isnt banning fracking, and stopping her “joy” campaign if she were winning. Tammy baldwins internals have her in a statistical tie with hovde (i predict she wins a close one). If that race is close in WI trump is well ahead there too
John Fetterman thinks Harris will lose PA.
Walz is on tv today saying he favors a border wall. They are well behind