I present three views on the question. The third one is mine. See if you can identify mine before reading further. First, let’s go over the odds. 
Polymarket says the odds RFK will drop out before November are 97 percent. A week ago they were about 50 percent.
That’s not the same as endorsing Trump but those odds are nearly the same.
What Happened?
It’s peculiar that Kennedy is willing to talk to either party.
He followed that up with a blast at Democrats
Endorse Trump or Else
NBC News reports RFK Jr.’s running mate outlines ‘two options’: Drop out and back Trump or ‘risk’ Harris win
Nicole Shanahan, who is pumping millions of dollars into Kennedy’s independent campaign, made the remarks in a podcast interview.
Kyle Kemper, a Kennedy superfan who has devoted much of the past year to touring his homemade Kennedy bus around the country, said he would be “heartbroken” if Kennedy joined Trump, and he grew furious as he talked through the implications of Shanahan’s comments.
Kemper said that he understood the strategic justification for working out an arrangement with Trump that could give Kennedy some position in the campaign or administration — but that Kennedy shouldn’t “sell his soul.”
Angela Wulbrecht, a California nurse who turned against vaccination mandates after she had an adverse reaction to one of the Covid-19 shots, said that she’s a lifelong Democrat who supports all of the party’s core beliefs — but that she feels “abandoned” by a party that “gaslit” her on vaccines.
“I never thought in a million years I could vote Trump, but I might for [Kennedy]. He’s the only one who could even get me to consider it,” she said. “But until I hear it from his own mouth, I don’t really know what to think.”
Kennedy to Address the Nation
Collin Rugg
Massive Boost?
The 94 percent speculation is that Kennedy will endorse Trump. Looks like 99+ percent to me.
I concur. But what would that do?
SaltyGoat with 181,000 followers says “Massive Boost”
Barely Relevant?
Larry Sabato, Director Center4Politics says “barely relevant and falling”.
Sabato has 211,000 followers.
Forbes Take
Forbes writer Sara Dorn explains Why RFK Jr.’s Exit From Race Probably Won’t Help Trump Very Much
That is paywalled but you do get four free reads per month.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s anticipated exit from the presidential race and rumored endorsement of former President Donald Trump might help Trump in the race by a tiny margin, according to some analyses, but his single-digit polling average isn’t likely to boost Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris enough to tip the scales in either candidate’s favor.
Key Facts
- RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Harris with a 1.6-point advantage over Trump in a five-way race with Kennedy, independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein on the ballot, but her lead only narrows to 1.5 points in a two-way matchup—indicating Kennedy would barely help Trump if he’s not on the ballot.
- Similarly, an Emerson College poll released Thursday found Kennedy’s exit from the race is a wash: Trump and Harris both gained two points in a head-to-head matchup, compared to their margins in a six-way race.
- A Washington Post analysis, however, found that Kennedy has been hurting Trump more than Harris since President Joe Biden left the race, citing six reputable surveys that found Trump loses points when third-party candidates are in the mix.
- Equal shares (2%) of Republicans and Democrats and those who lean toward either party backed Kennedy in an Aug. 11-13 Economist/YouGov poll, while Kennedy netted 8% of support from voters who identified as independent or leaning independent.
- Generally, independent voters tend to prefer Harris over Trump (48% to 37% in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll and 33% to 20% in the Economist/YouGov poll when voters who lean independent are factored in), suggesting she’s more likely to pick up a larger share of the independent voters who say they’d back Kennedy.
- Harris gains ground in the crucial swing states of Michigan (0.4 points) and Wisconsin (0.7 points) with Kennedy in the mix, but Trump benefits with him on the ballot in Nevada (1 point) and Georgia (0.7 points), according to a RealClearPolitics analysis. Harris also makes gains in Arizona and Pennsylvania with Kennedy on the ballot—enough, in fact, to take the lead away from Trump given his narrow advantage in the two key swing states, according to RealClearPolitics.
Washington Post
As a WAPO subscriber I get to gift up to 10 articles a month.
Here you go.
Please consider RFK Jr. and the third-party effect are now hurting Trump
There’s increasing evidence that independent candidate Kennedy, in particular — a candidate once elevated by Donald Trump’s allies when he was challenging President Joe Biden in the Democratic primaries — is pulling significantly more votes from Trump than Harris.
Since the Democratic ticket turned over from Biden to Harris last month, a half-dozen quality polls have tested both a Trump-Harris matchup and a crowded race that included independent and third-party candidates. In all of them, Harris performed better in the crowded race.
And when you dig into the more recent polls, you begin to see how Kennedy in particular — the only other candidate generally polling higher than 1 percent — is now evidently hurting Trump.
Small margins do matter; the last two elections were decided by a point or less in the decisive states. And however large the ultimate impact, you’d rather have these candidates pulling voters from your opponent than you. That appears to be what’s happening right now for Harris.
Confirmation Bias
If you have a strong opinion one way or another are looking for an opinion to validate yours, there you go.
To help avoid confirmation bias, I am a paid subscriber to two Left and two Right publications. Even still, it isn’t easy either in politics or on the economy.
But I must be doing at least OK because I have been accused of being extreme Right and extreme Left at lest four times on the same day.
Small Margins Matter
I side with the Washington Post because I side with six surveys over one and WaPo made the best case.
But by how much? Enough to matter?
I suspect the impact will be small. But it may not take much to matter.
For example, the Nate Silver Bulletin has Harris over Trump 46.2 to 44.9 in Pennsylvania.
If current momentum shifts by a point anyway, and RFK gives Trump another 1 percentage point, then RFK could easily tip the election.
Silver has Kennedy polling 4 percent nationally, 3.8 percent in Pennsylvania, 5.3 percent in Arizona, 4.4 percent in Michigan, and 4.6 percent in Nevada.
Could vs Will
Biden won Pennsylvania by a mere 1.17 percentage points in 2020 so RFK could matter greatly.
But could matter and will matter are not the same thing. I don’t know, nor does anyone else.
Regardless, it’s much better to have the endorsement than not.
Peak Trump and Peak Harris
July 22: In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Peak Trump?
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
Everything changed the moment Biden dropped out.
On July 21, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
At the time I made that comment, Nate Silver had Trump’s odds of winning at 72.8 percent to 26.9 percent for Biden with a 0.4 percent chance of no majority (recount or a rogue elector voting for Kennedy).
August 18: Kamala Harris Has Peaked, Expect the Polls to Tighten Further
On August 14, Harris held a 56.7 percent to 42.7 percent edge over Trump. Harris lead is now down to 53.8 percent to 45.7 percent.
As of 7:30 p.m., Wednesday, August 21:(no update from Nate Silver today), the Silver Bulletin has Harris 52.7 percent to 46.9 percent Trump.
The Harris plan is increasingly crazy, and I do not believe it will help.
For discussion, please see Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
If Trump can avoid more foot-in-mouth disease occasions and stick to the economy, I believe he will win.
Was planning on voting for RFK jr. I’m saddened by this news, but understand this is the nature of what he believes must happen to have an impact.
I was leaning RFK. Heard he would be dropping out and took a fresh look. Today I read Harris’ speech transcript. I will most definitely not be voting for Harris, after last night’s speech.
RFK made excellent points, It’s a pity most democrats don’t have an open mind. It’s up to the mind-control media to make him look as senile as Joe.
The panic Democrats and their fluffers feel when they hear RFK jr’s name is hilarious. It’s TDS by another name.
After the Three Tenors let’s have the Three Weirdos. US politics is mainly entertainment these days, so a Trump-Vance-RFK Jr. threesome will be fun to watch.
Not sure if Kennedy can save Trump, unlikely I think.
After this election is over the take away will be: Don’t alienate large chunks of your voter base.
Trump alienated Reagan Conservatives & just to make sure they understood, he chose a useless VP pick who’s main claim to fame is he’s the biggest Ukraine hater in Congress.
Kamala as president. I cringe thinking about it.
RFK will have next to no impact compared to the illegal alien ballot harvesting operation. When that pressure cooker goes off it will be so nasty nobody will want to go near it. All the current political persecutions are warning signals to anyone thinking otherwise.
Are they polling any illegals? Probably not, so these polls are meaningless.
Ridiculous – Very few illegals will vote and not enough to tip the election.
I’m looking forward to the audits (not recounts). In the meantime all we have to go off of are the visuals that Democrats love paper ballot harvesting and harvesting illegal aliens.
The most confusing aspect however is no IT startups or ones using AI have proposed ways to adjudicate votes. Detecting company fraud and theft is a different story. Even government fraud. There are companies right now trying to sell big government agencies AI tools to find tax fraud, VA fraud, you name it. No proposals yet on voter fraud.
The Heritage Foundation (to its chagrin) could find only 24 documented cases of illegals voting in US elections. And of those 24, a significant share was simply confused about what they were doing.
Mike, yesterday the FDA granted through EUA for the updated mRNA Covid boosters. They are still saying it’s an emergency. Are you saying that even though parts of the federal government are entirely corrupted by industry influence (CDC, FDA, FAA, SEC, Pentagon) that vote tabulations are free from such corruption?
Kennedy/Shanahan are political flippers who bought 5% shares in the Nov election, making a few changes, and sell for profit as soon as they can to get out of the way.
These activist only care about their own pocket.
Contrary to everyone else involved who isn’t just caring about their own pockets and/or stroking their egos?
:eyeroll:
Shanahan blew 10 million of her own money trying to invoke change. You are talking out of your rear here. RFK campaign was attacked by DNC months before he went indie. They also spent 100 million sabotaging his ballot access. I will never vote Democrat again after seeing that fascist display
FACTS.
Nicole Shanahan flipped Sergey Brin. She is an experienced flipper. The super bowl ad advertised her. She pledged to donate $100 millions to a reproductive co. She got $1B from her divorce. She probably made money on her investments. She will cut her losses as soon as she can. When the Fed cut rates supply will exceed demand. Buying is more important than selling. If u buy at the right price losing $100K on your house don’t matter. Sam Zell always sold early.
Another Kamala supporter with officially licensed knee pads fully engaged in the one game Kamala knows best.
When the Fed cut rates it will open the floodgate. More houses for sale, but not enough buyers. Gen alpha is the smallest in the last 100 years. If the Fed will cut the 10Y to reduce mortgage rates ==> the US gov debt might deflate. Trump knows how to survive a RE plunge and come out a winner.
Why not be honest. You don’t know what the impact of Fed policy will be. Never before has the global economy been drowning in debt, all of which hinges in interest rates.
I also don’t know the impact. However, I strongly suspect the Fed has lost control. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
Ignore his word salads. They make no sense.
if u eat salad and beans u don’t need a freezer.
The Fed never expected that their stealthy raids will create a tsunami of money. Dr Faust ventilators pushed inflammation back to the lungs. His boosters weaken the immune system. The boosters decayed bc the bad guys took over.
Kennedy withdraws candidacy in Arizona on eve of big announcement
Jeremy Duda, Kelly Tyko
22 Aug 2024
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. filed paperwork Thursday to formally withdraw his candidacy in Arizona — one day before a scheduled announcement in Phoenix in which he’s expected to end his campaign.
…
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/kennedy-shanahan-withdraw-candidacy-arizona-election-2024
Since the assassination attempt Trump became more presidential. He praised Obama
and Brian Kemp.
Trump should make RFK the AG. As AG he would have complete immunity to drain the Swamp and go after big pharma and the military industrial complex.
Kennedy is a nut.
But endless wars, unrestrained immigration, beating down the middle class and the government telling you what to do with your own body is the height of sanity.
Your TDS is showing.
So was his grandfather before they put him in charge of the SEC and cleaning up Wall Street after the toxic waste of the 20s led to the Great Depression … something like “set a fox to catch the foxes”, FDR said…
You think an AG in a Republican administration is going to go after the military industrial complex? That’s adorable!
wouid prefer kennedy as director of CIA, or CDC
Funny less than 5% considered irrelevant, understandably, but then again look at Harris who had less than 1%, and is now the Democratic nominee. Weird.
“But I must be doing at least OK because I have been accused of being extreme Right and extreme Left at lest four times on the same day.”
Let me be the first to accuse Mish of being extreme Center.
There, that should teach him.
CNN was miffed that Harris hadn’t done an interview yet. I saw her answer a question the other day, talking about increased child tax credits and how they were an investment and would pay for themselves. Vaporware. A student went to China with Walz. Said Walz bought a bunch of Mao’s Little Red Book as gifts. The student said Walz is “a Maoist to the core.” Maoism is not democracy. Democracy is just a means to an end, to left wing Democrats.
Democrats unimpressed with Harris could vote for Jill Stein as a protest vote within the left.
Or they could write in me. That’s J O J O!
My own personal thought, is that it will disenfranchise a small % of Democrat Voters looking for someone new. Another small % will simply stay home. Finally, IF Kennedy slides over to the Republican side for placement, then a much larger % of Democrats, Might just vote Republican…
Why cite Nate Silver, as if he was the most accurate pollster? RCP average is most reliable.
Only states in play are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – Harris must win all three. Pennsylvania most difficult for Harris to win yet passes on Shapiro? Sel inflicted.
Political map changed when Florida, Ohio and Iowa became reliably red.
What the Democratic political machine has done to RFK Jr over the past year has been beyond the pale. If I had went thru this I would be pissed beyond belief.
That being said I would prefer he worked on building a viable third party.
At this point the democrat party has proven to be arrogant and corrupt. They dont even bother to play pretend because they have the majority of the msm and Silicon Valley serving as their propaganda ministry.
Don’t discount the left of center voters that were never enthralled with Biden being foisted upon them and were going to consider voting for Bobby, Jr. until the change was made.
A wash at best.
Assuming Kennedy endorses Trump and as he is against open borders, his ability to explain that position will be swaying Black voters.
Many Black voters are believing that they are being abandoned by the country they have lived in for multiple generations. Passed over by illegals being given funds that are never there for the inner city residents.
Kennedy endorsing Trump is going to be a lot bigger deal then people know.
That Trump campaign is willing to talk out policy differences with Kennedy will move Trumps appearance towards the Center while Harris sticks with Far Left.
“Kennedy, in particular — is pulling significantly more votes from Trump than Harris.”
I’m sorry, but this is a HUGE head scratcher. I don’t see how this is happening. I need Mish or Nate Silver to explain this one to me. RFK Jr. is a serious liberal.
I think this is more of the fake / false flag polling that’s becoming all to common place.
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT BIG TECH IS INFLUENCING OUR ELECTIONS.
Who in their right mind doesn’t think polling isn’t being skewed for political reasons to help liberal Democrats.
PA democrats deleted RFK Jr bc he and Nicole Shanahan are threatening them, not Trump. What does Googl’s Sergey Brin ex knows about Kamala Harris and Timmy. How much it will cost to keep her away, as Trump and Cohen did, during the 2020 election. Trump was convicted for felonies he committed before he became president.
In arizona it is ballot stuffing right in front of us – thanks to scotus
not sure how it will impact the election, but TSA’s watchlist is about to get bigger.
Kennedy is against toxic vaccines. Trump rushed out a toxic transfection reagent (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfection), dishonestly called a vaccine. If Kennedy backs Trump, he is a sellout.
Fauci is the one at fault here.
Not when RFK Jr. sees how dangerous the Democrat Party is.
Trump didn’t know much about medicine and just followed Dr’s. He DID point out that HCQ worked, however, the only Government person to ever do so!
With RFK inside Trumps cabinet he can steer policies against mandatory jabs and work against Big Pharma. No point being on the outside just to remain steadfast and be irrelevant.
PA Democrats deleted RFK Jr from the ballot. He challenges it in NY court. Nicloe Shanahan starts bidding with Trump, before signing with Kamala to cut her losses. JFK Jr is a weirdo. He left a dead baby bear in central park. He and Timmy are a perfect pair.
Cmon man, who hasn’t left a dead baby bear in Central Park. What is youth for if not for indiscretions??
RFK Jr. fits right in with the Trump-Vance ticket. His policy views are beyond weird. Maybe Trump could offer him to be the VP of the VP (=VVP). But I doubt that RFK Jr. will help mobilize more basement dwellers for Trump.
‘Weird’ is the word people use when describing anyone thinks out of the box or tries to do something new. It’s part of that monkey-brain social wackamole game that people play to keep people from stepping out of line. I’d rather be Weird than a drone.
Are you working for Merriam-Webster? The closest synonyms for “weird” are “bizarre” and “screwy,” but certainly not “innovative.”
Oo-oo-Aa-aa
The far left ignores the dictionary at will. They can’t call their opponents innovative, or anything else that sounds positive, so they resort to weird.
What’s genuinely weird is people who change the definition of vaccine in the middle of a pandemic, people who cannot acknowledge the profound biochemical basis of the fundamental distinction between men and women, people who think the government should raise everyone’s children rather than the kids’ own parents…
I didn’t leave the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party left me.
Okay, since you want to be an insufferable pedant, how about we go with ‘dog whistle’ or ‘euphemism’. Happy now?
If I say your definition of weird is sick, do you know what I mean or not?
Better Weird than Red!
Dems have latched into the word weird and parrot it in unison like the sheep in Animal Farm.
I’d rather be a Deplorable and weird.
RFK uses facts and science.Thats how he beat Monsanto out of billions in settlements.You are just a keyboard warrior and have win nothing
Who wins in Democratic primary Kennedy vs Kamala?
This is a bit disgusting the manipulation is so out of control. All this will not end badly.
What a shame.
zero winners, there were no primaries. The variables cannot be populated, there are no data. Its like contemplating “what is the world” with your eyes closed, why not just open them and see?
I’ll keep saying the election, like 2020, will be determined by mass-media brain-washing until the US Department of Propaganda drags me off to prison.
Meanwhile, I wonder what JD Vance thinks about RFK.
Maybe the deal will be that Vance gets the boot and Kennedy becomes the VP replacing him? [lol]
And Hunter will replace Tampon Tim.
So far, Trump has not shown a tendency toward divergent thinking. That is, he’s predictably conventional–whatever it takes to win votes to replace those he loses when opening his mouth. On the other hand, Kamala is following the left’s playbook without thinking.
I find it interesting to see the way people waste their thoughts on speculations of no consequence. Life is short use your neurons or lose them.
I realize these polls have a lot of “in this case, then” findings, but I’m still astonished that Harris showed a lead even with leftist voters diverted to Kennedy, West and this Green Party person. So I wonder two things: 1. How damned far left is the American voting public? And/or: 2. Is Trump’s campaign just such a crock that too many voters don’t see him as an alternative to radical socialism?
I have talked with a number of friends and neighbors about whom they will vote for. The women are leaning strongly to Harris. The men are more for Trump but not to the same extent. Every woman brings up abortion. I note that men whose wives are for Harris seem to lean that way in public. I suppose that for them to disagree openly with their wife would bring on some family friction. When it comes to the actual vote, I wonder if they will remain in the Harris camp.
Any man who votes to hear Harris’ shrill voice babbling inanities for the next four years is a glutton for punishment.
Unfortunately, men in the Anglophone world have largely come under the thrall of their women to the point where they do not dare contradict them lest there be ‘consequences’. The social and legal system puts men at a serious disadvantage- Is it any wonder there’s such an increase in ‘passport-bros’?
“of COURSE I voted for Kamala, honey!” heh heh
yes, sometimes lying is the best thing you can do in a devious relationship. Women are wily,they will agree until they get what they want. I feel no shame in using their rules when engaging with them.
#2. Many people are tired of Trump’s continual “woe is me” and “I am awesome” shtick.
How his family put up with him for so many years is beyond me, but then if someone is bankrolling your life, I guess you just roll your eyes, smile and go with the flow.
Sure, but do they want Shaniqua piloting their airplane?
Let’s say we agree Trump is a dork. To rephrase my question: Is the American public so accepting of radical socialism that more than half the population will vote for it over voting for a dork?
Yes. And Trump is not a “dork”. That would be a far too kind description.
Trump is a narcissitic ahole.
I fail to see how character traits like being a narcissist and/or an a-hole has any bearing on his tenure as president. JFK and Clinton were philanderers – should we care about that character trait?
Yer darn right it matters. Trump 2024.
The DNC has no viable candidates. They all abandoned the corrupt party long ago including RFK Jr.
Biden wasn’t viable either. Guess what? The unwashed and overfed masses didn’t care.
Biden was a low-rent, bought and aid for part of the hydra – that’s enough.
The DNC has viable candidates, but its because the are DINO’s.
Harris will be the next POTUS, sometime between now and end of October. I don’t know if she will win in November.
I think it is on the cards. Once we get past the DNC convention, Biden resigns. Kalamity Harris pardons Biden and Hunter and claims to resolve the Ukraine mess with the US paying for reconstruction.
Not a chance the Ukraine mess can be resolved except on Russias terms. Denazification of Ukraine, ceding of territory, end of all sanctions, return of seized assets with interest, and possibly the US paying Russia a few hundred billion to a few trillion in war reparations. Now as the war didn’t happen on Trumps watch it would be possible in 2025 for a Putin-Trump meeting to work out a settlement for peace that won’t cost the US taxpayer or cause loss of face.
Like him or not Trump is the best chance to reset the clock on US-Russia relations and bring peace to the Middle East conflict.
And I hope RFK, even with his weirdness, gets into Trumps cabinet either to sort out the CDC or the CIA. A Trump cabinet with RFK, Tulsi and afew others will be more Democrat of old than the crazy Democrats of today.
I agree, Putin is done negotiating with Ukraine and the west.
Putin is done period.
Check out how well things went for the USSR / Russia on their Afghan Debacle. Similar end results coming up for Russia in Ukraine. Russia is a failed state and the Federation will crumble in the next decade, JUST like the Soviet Union collapsed after Afghanistan.
at least the USSR didn’t leave 17 billion in high tech arms behind for the 3 world arms dealers. The American engangment was so much better in Afghanistan, we didn’t have people falling off planes trying to escape as we ran out of the country with our tails tucked. Thank you Joe Biden…
I did say ‘claims to resolve’ for a reason. Democrats use of smoke and mirrors far exceeds their opposition (weak as it is)..
As for using RFK, he’d be wasted in CDC and CIA. Put him in charge of flushing out political bias in all Fed govt departments.
RFK Jr. has been a liberal dem all his life. That is why he can NOT support the corrupt DNC and it’s corrupt ticket any longer. Like Tulsi and others of the best, there is no place for them in the fascised dem party.
Trump (also a former dem) is the only remaining candidate that cares about the country and wants fair and just government. RFK is a great and likely choice to assume an important and influential cabinet role in the coming Trump regime. NIH, FDA, HHW, etc.
He is for the people as is Trump, and will strive to to make America great again. I think he will bring Fauci and his ilk to face justice.
All the angry orange Mussolini wannabe cares about is himself. Always has. Always will. He doesn’t give a damn about anything but himself.
TDS strikes again….he lives in your head rent free forever……
FOX’s recent political coverage is refreshing as they are doing a great jog bringing Dems onto their programming, perhaps realizing it’s time to abandon the sinking ship USS Trump.
Do you not understand by appearing to be ‘balanced’, brings more viewers, and expands the conservative base with independents
Exactly. But sadly, FOX’s “fair & balanced” reporting was anything but up until perhaps a year or so ago.
I started watching the channel with their superior coverage of the Israel/Gaza war and related issues compared to MSNBC & CNN.
JoJo, come on. Just stop with this great point:
“I started watching the channel with their superior coverage”
And stop holding water for Harris. Her honeymoon is OVER, and she hasn’t even held a single press conference or debate. She’s the Titanic in waiting.
I don’t like Harris at all.
Her only value is that she ISN’T TRUMP, who I believe is a clear and present danger to the USA and to the world in general.
What we get with Harris is the same policies as Biden. Not great bit not world destroying.
Did I not say ‘appearing to be balanced.?
Exactly
Kennedy dropping out won’t matter. Although, if he did soldier on, it would be interesting to see if he has any effect on the race. Perhaps he could join the halls of 3rd party infamy along with Nader and Perot?
Dude, his polling number are EASILY enough by themselves to push Trump over the top, assuming he gives a full-throated endorsement. I’d imagine a lot of his supporters are open-minded, realist who can pinch their nose Iike I will and vote for Trump. Trump’s policies will be monumentally better for America, and with any luck, the GOP will hold onto the House for 4 years, and we won’t have to go through 10 fake impeachment trials.
The biggest potential problem for Harris is the state of the economy / unemployment. If it gets measurable worse, Trump will win. The problem for Trump is that this weakness has to manifest itself in the next two months.
So Trump is sort of like an expiring option, eh? If he loses, his value goes to zero and the Republican party will be freed of him and able to start rebuilding its bench..
Great. More Romney. Fuck that.
more war in 24!!!
Powell just said rate cuts are guaranteed in September. DOW 50,000 is in play, as well as a return to 10% annual appreciation in residential RE. Might have an influence on non-cultists.
Kennedy speaks to the anti-establishment left that can’t stand the sh!tlibs in the mainline Democrat party. To them these are the former ‘feel the Bern’ people who still feel like they got betrayed. I think getting endorsed by Kennedy is a far bigger deal for Trump than it would’ve been for Harris. Overall I think it will be a bigger help than a smaller one.
Betteridge’s law of headlines
When I see anyone quote NPR/PBS/Marist polls on anything I just chuckle. Given that I suspect taxpayers partially fund/grant money to NPR/PBS it’s surprising how biased they are and unashamed in their support for all things D.
Everything changed when “They” changed it. That fateful Sunday where, in the morning Biden was still in the race and by evening “They” performed their soft coup–soft enough to not have him run but not so harsh as to do the right thing and replace him in the Oval Office immediately due to obvious impairment. The next day Blue Horseshoe changed the narrative and CBS/NBC/ABC/CNN/MSNBC, MSN, Google/YouTube, Meta, MSFT, LAT, NYT, WaPo, AAPL along with the 3 letter agencies reframed the dialogue. All bad news supressed, only positive news spread about Harris and negative about Trump (nothing changed there). Suddenly the economy went from “great because of us” to “I can fix that when I’m elected.” The Border czar(ina) was scrubbed from history and now the border will be addressed–although the convention statements were that it was better under Biden/Harris than Trump (seriously that was uttered!! who believes that obvious lie when official statistics and eyesight tell you otherwise??).
So at this point I’ll take any tiny blip of benefit. In 2020 Biden won in the swing states by a lower margin than Trump did in 2016, despite getting (ahem) 81M votes nationally. It only takes a very small amount of weight in the swing states to matter, that’s why even the smallest amount of impropriety matters and should always be investigated without dismissing as “not having standing”. In this case the small weight on the scale, should it come from RFK Jr’s endorsement, would be welcome.
It’s about time someone formerly on their side stood up for themselves. My God they did Bernie dirty twice and he still rallied on their behalf. Looks like RFK Jr. has the nerve to call them for what they are, the true democracy-haters, those that are The Deciders. Rules for thee (conservatives) but not for me (us Dems that is). I suspect it became personal when the person they chose in lieu of allowing him to run in a primary was then run outta Dodge and replaced by the human word salad. There’s only so much a person can witness before they do something.
C’mon Pennsylvania and Georgia!!
AZ and NV would be nice but PA matters above all else.
“…CBS/NBC/ABC/CNN/MSNBC, MSN, Google/YouTube, Meta, MSFT, LAT, NYT, WaPo, AAPL along with the 3 letter agencies…”
VS.
Fox, X-previously twitter, and TruthSocial /sarc
PS: You omitted PBS, the Intellectuals’ media
I didn’t omit PBS/NPR, I disparaged them in sentence one regarding their polling. It’s sad that I have to fund them given they represent the lefties 100% of the time, riding their high horses to their ivory towers virtue signalling through the lens and microphone of Intellectuals’ media!
What’s most sad is that every time one refutes the massive left bias of “nearly every” media outlet, Big Tech and government agencies, the same ONE name is given–“what about Fox”. (Twitter now mentioned but Twitter was proven to have been infiltrated and controlled in the 2020 election and was only freed to be open as of Musk’s purchase–afterwhich he went from EV Tesla fanboy of the left to pariah for promoting free speech! Funny that)
So, it’s hundreds vs 1. And it’s always the retort I hear. Democrats and lefties would be pleased to eradicate free speech on Twitter or Fox, then it would be complete control. You know, democracy and such…
The Dem. and Rep. are massive spenders in the Media and don’t want that possible spoiler Kennedy to be covered— especially in a possible close Election.
The Mainstream Media satisfy their main Political Advertisers and have mostly kept Kennedy out of their coverage unless it’s negative coverage about him.
Kennedy has a big announcement tomorrow and will probably suggest Trump to his supporters. But how many will take this suggestion is a crap shoot.
The enemy of his enemy being his friend might be enough to drag Team Trump over the line…RFK doesn’t agree with a lot of Trump points but is wise enough to understand it’s a binary choice. As an honest old line liberal he calculates Harris would be a markedly worse choice. Kennedy in an appropriate cabinet position, NIH for example (not EPA) could be worth the price.
Love to see him as Attorney General in Trumps Cabinet.
It would be interesting to see if he opened the files on his dead relatives, but it would be horrendous in every other way.
Lot of people in DC that want things kept hidden.
Having an AG who followed the Constitution would be Great.
Bring in Edwin Meese for consultation as well.
This country has changed, but I still doubt it has moved so far left as to vote for Harris.
Where do you live, Oklahoma? Go to any major city.
is there a boulder of salt large enough to be taken with these “statements” from the elements of the media telling us Kennedy doesn’tn matter? Weren’t these the same sort of folks who told us Biden was competent and totally in charge just 60 days ago?
Everything is a scam on the internet, especially professional opinions from the talking head communities. Everybody has a Rooster in this Cock Fight. There are no neutral observers, its all about swaying that narrow percentage of undecided.
Love the TDS statements, people poisoned by their own political and partiies, still can’t vote for that “Rude Man” – truly deluded. They’ll inject unknown potions into their arms repeatedly, but they won’t open their ears and listen to a Trump speech or two.
But yeah, Kennedy got screwed by his family’s party, and finally realized they don’t care about anything but getting their hands on power. He’s got nothing to lose by supporting Trump, the Democrats would welcome him back with open arms and shove knives in his back while they have ahold of him.
Larry Sabato let his mask drop in recent years. He’d previously feigned impartiality, but he’s clearly a democrat
Maybe Kamala doesn’t need any policy proposals other than word salad with leftist dressing. The polls seem to be crazy in and of themselves. Maybe the Republic is gone. Or the polls are just more disinformation. We shall see. It would be hard to believe that mass brain washing is that effective.
Harris would lose against almost any other “normal” Republican candidate. Trump is the ONLY candidate she stands a chance at beating.
There is a story on the media now about the search for a guy in AZ who has threatened to shoot Trump.
Were this to happen, I wonder who Trump would be replaced by? J.D. Vance? Someone else?
“Harris would lose against almost any other “normal” Republican candidate. Trump is the ONLY candidate she stands a chance at beating.”
Youngkin would have won in a landslide
RFK jr. would help Trump but I don’t know if his endorsement will put him over the edge. To me kit is clear that Biden’s stepdown had been planned in advance and Harris’ ready-made and very slick publicity program was ready to be put in action as soon as the word was given. Honestly, the Republicans need much better inside intel on what the Democrats are doing. I would hazard to say that they know exactly what Trump had for breakfast.
well we know they probably know what Trump had for breakfast yesterday, as they tend to wallow in the Sh*t..
I have no idea what you are talking about.
Mish, ~70K votes in aggregate won Biden the electoral vote in 2020. Kennedy endorsing Trump will induce a multitude of Undecideds to vote for him. This would be pivotal.
Interestingly, Trump’s Polymarket chart formed a “Golden Cross” yesterday vs. Harris’.
Yep – That is my point
But there are issues
1: Kennedy might not bring in 70K votes
2: 70K votes might not be enough
3: 30K votes might be enough, heck 10K votes might do it
4: Trump might be so far ahead by election due to the economy that he will not need any votes from Kennedy
It is on that combination I concluded Kennedy is a help but it may not matter
First, he can’t keep his mouth shut–although saying favorable things about Obama and even Michelle could help him.
But Kennedy won’t bring him more votes; it would help him to stay where he is and take votes away from Biden, Oh, I mean Harris.
Rfk Jr my new fave Kennedy